Why Packers Will Beat Chicago and Why They Might Not

Back in Week 1 when Aaron Rodgers was happily shoving defensive coordinator Mike Pettine after a victory, you figured that the second Packers-Bears game would have some meaning. And it does. Just more for the Packers.

Of course, if Green Bay loses, Chicago's playoff hopes will certainly get a boost. They will still be alive. 

The Packers, on the other hand, can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Rams loss. That would end the Bears season and that, along with sweeping the arch rival would be quite satisfying.

A win also could have huge consequences in the NFC North race. 

Right now, the Packers are one game clear of the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, the two teams are set to play next week and the Vikings could even the record of both teams. But, the Packers don't need to win the game next week to win the North. In order to do that, Green Bay just has to beat Chicago and Detroit.

You see, if Minnesota and Green Bay have the same overall record as well as head-to-head record, then division record will be the next tiebreaker and since the Packers are 3-0 starting this stretch, two wins would give them the NFC North title regardless because the Vikings have two losses.

It's also the last regular season home game and it seems like a perfect day for some old-fashioned football.

Why Packers might win

For the most part, the Packers have been pretty consistent on offense this season. Three times, inclduing once against Chicago, they were held under 300 yards. Other than that, they have eclipsed that mark each time. 

It hasn't always been pretty and at times, the unit is subject to slumps. It will come out hot and then do nothing. Or start slow and then catch fire, sometimes too late. 

A strong start will be important in this one. While the Bears rank near the bottom of most offensive categories, they are ranked highly on defense, both against the run and the pass. 

Rodgers has always found a way against Chicago but a big key in this one will be keeping him protected. Part of that will be getting Aaron Jones involved too, as a runner and receiver. 

The nice thing is that the Bears offense, which has gone over 300 yards only four times this season, should be managable for the Packers.

Green Bay was able to limit Washington on the ground and even though doing the same against Chicago will be more difficult, the Packers allowed the Bears to rush for just 46 yards in the first meeting, so it's possible.

Turnovers have been an issue for the Bears and they have given the ball away seven times in their last four games. If that trend continues and Rodgers gets solid protection, he should be able to avoid turnovers and that bodes really well for Green Bay.

Why Bears Might win

Khalil Mack hasn't been quite as productive this season for Chicago, with 7.5 sacks coming, however, the Bears defense has still been really good.

Green Bay struggled in the first meeting, but the Bears have allowed eight offenses to rack up over 300 yards.

Keeping Chicago honest and putting Rodgers in manageable down-and-distance situations will be critical.

Chicago has the ability to force turnovers and make other impact plays on defense and that's one component the Bears will need to win.

They will also need a stellar effort from Mitch Trubisky, who can silence some doubters with another win over Aaron Rodgers. 

Green Bay needs a win for its playoff hopes and the same can be said for Chicago.

That's why nothing is guaranteed. But push come to shove, Aaron Rodgers should be the difference in two, evenly-matchted teams. 

 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (18)

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HankScorpio's picture

December 15, 2019 at 05:30 am

The Packers will beat the Bears because the Bears still suck. Songs have been written that detail their suckitude. Surely the songs would not lie.

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Lare's picture

December 15, 2019 at 06:12 am

As always, it'll come down to the team that controls the LOS.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 15, 2019 at 06:24 am

"They will also need a stellar effort from Mitch Trubisky, who can silence some doubters with another win over Aaron Rodgers. "

Wins are not a QB stat. Trubisky could have a stellar effort in a Bears loss or a lackluster effort in a Bears win.

Having said that, I pray to the football gods every night that the Bears management suffers from the same delusion and continue to employ Trubisky as their QB. He is a weak link on that team that prevents them from achieving greater success. You just have to have eyes and a clear understanding that wins are not a QB stat to know that.

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ILPackerBacker's picture

December 15, 2019 at 08:08 am

I am not sure I agree the limiting Chicago v the run will be more difficult than Washington. The redskins have (had) two quality backs, not so the bears. The bear advantage!!!!! is at qb. We have all seen the Mike P will count on the other team giving up the run to pass.

But lets just get an early lead and make them play catch up. <knocking wood>

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murf7777's picture

December 15, 2019 at 08:14 am

It’s simple.... why they win....create more turnovers. Why they lose...turnover the ball to the bears. Just win the turnover battle and win the game. That is how it’s gone all year and if you look at the NFL turnover ratio the best (winning record teams) have a positive and the worst (losing record teams) have a negative ratio. I believe there are only one exception on each side of the ratio. The packers are a winning team mainly because of that one stat.

Prediction....Packers positive 2 turnovers.

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Gort's picture

December 15, 2019 at 08:29 am

"Keeping Chicago honest and putting Rodgers in manageable down-and-distance situations will be critical."
That is the entire game. Essentially nothing else matters. MUST simply take what the Bear's "D" gives you and move the sticks. That keeps Trubisky as a spectator and makes Mack get tired.

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Spock's picture

December 15, 2019 at 08:51 am

^^^This^^^

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Renllaw's picture

December 15, 2019 at 11:07 am

Right on the money Gort, If Rodgers plays within the offense and hits the open read instead of trying to be Superman we will be in those manageable down & distance scenarios.

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dobber's picture

December 15, 2019 at 08:56 am

I expect the Bears will come out of the tunnel fired up. Packers must match their intensity, not just at the start but for 4 quarters.

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Renllaw's picture

December 15, 2019 at 11:13 am

I feel like as a packer fan I hear "Match their intensity", and "Weather the storm" way too often --- I say screw that, we need to BE THE STORM. Be aggressive on D and bully them with the run on O all game long. Make them match US.

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flackcatcher's picture

December 15, 2019 at 09:40 am

Well, I think most of the important stuff has already been written here on today's game. Chris Peterson overview states what is at stake today. I will only add, that this is the first of three division games which will be hard hitting affairs from beginning to end. Unlike the other two games coming up, these teams respect each other so I don't expect Bears- Packers to turn ugly. With that on to the SHORT FLACKY.... Offense: Bears run their offense though Trubisky. WHY? Is Matt Nagy insane (YES). If the Bears can beat the Packers contain and get the ball to their good to excellent backs, then this will be a long day for the Packers D. Packers: This once again comes down to Aaron Rodgers running MLF offensive scheme, and not getting impatient. The key once again, as it has been all season is the Packers offensive line. This game could come down to the health of both Tackles in keeping Rodgers clean, and running the outside zone blocking to spring both Jones and Williams. If that happens, then Rodgers will have time and passing lanes for his WR will be open. Look for heavy sets all game long. Defense: Bears. Harris and Mack, enough said. The speed and quickness of the Bears defense is their key. Misdirect rarely works with this group. Hard to run on, but can be run at. And can be thrown over if a offense develops a run game. Packers. THE SMITHS. Enough said. This defense can be run at and gashed. For the Bears, ball security is job one because this defense will take away the ball. While this team looks loose once inside the 30/redzone becomes a extremely tight defense. The Bears might get 3, but not 7 is the Pettine scheme. So far it's work during the season. Kickers: JK Scott may be the difference for this game. Field position will matter more so because of the weather. Mason Crosby. Money. (Which Gute will be paying after this season..) Special Teams: NEW GUY (yea). I pray for their success. We all know how this plays out. If the Packers don't screw up, they win. But it won't be pretty, Packers-Bears never are. 21-10 Packers. (Never short enough. heh heh heh....)

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Tarynfor12's picture

December 15, 2019 at 11:08 am

I predict many angry stares from Rodgers today.

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Qoojo's picture

December 15, 2019 at 11:16 am

After points, it always comes down to

1. Turnovers
2. Pressure on Rodgers

Chicago has a good front 7, and the packers need a quick passing game plan with some runs.

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PatrickGB's picture

December 15, 2019 at 11:35 am

If the Packers can find a consistent and positive identity they will win. If they sputter with with mistakes and miscommunication they will lose.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 15, 2019 at 12:19 pm

Our receivers are giving their critics more ammo.

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CAG123's picture

December 15, 2019 at 01:37 pm

Sometimes it sucks to watch the Packers struggle offensively and watch that turnover machine Winston put a whooping on the Lions I get a little jealous thinking "Man why can't we do that sometimes" but no we'll probably make David Blough look like Brady and their def look like a top ten unit.

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CAG123's picture

December 15, 2019 at 02:03 pm

WHEW DAMN! Where did that come from all of a sudden? I stand corrected lmao GO PACK!

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joshuaprice153's picture

December 15, 2019 at 09:37 pm

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