The Green Bay Packers are once again on the winning side of the ledger after a quick pit stop in the strange lands of a tied NFL game. Sunday’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals was not the blowout that fans wanted, but the team is once again on the right track. As of this week, they stand atop the NFC North (thanks to said tie, strangely enough), and have the fifth best record in the entire NFL. 

But it’s pretty clear that the offense is not yet operating at its peak efficiency. 

One of the stranger aspects of the offense is how, in the modern pass-oriented NFL, the Packers are one of the most run-heavy offenses. So far through the five games the Packers have played in 2025, they have passed the ball 147 times, and rushed the ball 134 times, an approximate split of 52% to 47%. This lands them squarely among the most run-happy teams in the NFL, behind the Seahawks at a 51% pass rate, and tied with the Lions. The overall top ten of that list does have some really good offenses in it. As we mentioned, the Seahawks, Lions and Packers live there, but you’d also find the Bills, the Commanders and the Colts on that list as well (it still feels weird to refer to the Colts as a good offense, doesn’t it?). On the opposite side of the spectrum, the most pass-happy teams in the league have the Chiefs (who come in at #1 with a 68% pass rate), the Cowboys, Chargers, and the Patriots. So right off the bat, we can approach this deep dive knowing that you can be successful with either strategy. 

Obviously, this discussion must start and end with Matt LaFleur. As the head coach / offensive playcaller, this offense runs by his design. All the strategies that we have seen stem from him, and it’s his tendencies that we’ll start with. 

When Matt LaFleur took over as head coach of the Green Bay Packers in 2018, we knew that he was a mentee of the Sean McVay / Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. This is a coaching tree that lives and thrives running the ball, particularly via the Shanahan branch. Over the last four years, LaFleur has been getting more and more reliant on the run game to operate his offense through. In 2022, the Packers had a passing rate of 55.2%, in 2023 it rose slightly to 56.8%, fell to 47.7 in 2024 and now sits at 52%. 

How do those numbers compare to the league-wide tendencies? Over those same last four years, the league wide run / pass ratio has remained remarkably consistent. Per SumerSports, in 2022 the pass rate was 55%, 2023 was 55.6%, 2024 was 54.8% and so far in 2025 we are seeing a 55.5% rate. So LaFleur has obviously dipped below the league average over the last two years. 

The obvious note that sticks out is that drop in 2024. Between the missed games from Love (during which LaFleur was forced to basically adopt a playbook straight out of Army or Navy), and the emergence of Josh Jacobs, it’s no wonder that the overall ratio takes a bit of a nosedive. As we know, the Packers still managed to get themselves into the playoffs that year. But the major question on my mind, and the genesis of this article, is why the Packers have stayed below league-wide passing rate averages, even with Love playing at a near All-Pro level. 

Sure, there are numerous advantages to running the ball, even in the modern NFL. The most commonly cited are: to set up play action, and to establish time of possession / wear out your opponent. So, how have the Packers actually fared in those areas?

#1: To Set up the play action. How has Green Bay fared so far in play action? Exceptionally. The team is ranked first in both success rate and EPA when operating out of play action. First in the league. Love has completed 71.4% of his passes out of play action, for three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Play action passes make up about 1/3rd of Love’s total attempts as a passer, and the Packers are ranked 2nd in the league in play action usage rate, behind only the Indianapolis Colts. It’s obvious that this strategy of running the ball to set up play action has been highly effective for the Packers through 2025. 

#2: To establish time of possession, and wear out the defense. The Packers are ranked #14 in the league in average time of possession, with an average TOP of 30:58. The Bills are ranked first in the league, with  33:11. The Packers have also been effective at wearing opponents out via the run game. In the fourth quarter of games versus the first three, the Packers have: the same number of touchdowns ( 3 to 3) and a higher EPA per rush (0.08 to 0.01), all on about 50 fewer attempts. Furthermore, they are also top 10 in fourth quarter rushing in: touchdowns, EPA per Rush, Success Rate, total rushing yards and yards per carry. Josh Jacobs is also the type of running back that only gets better as the game goes on. He’s also been getting better as the season itself goes on, evidenced by his PFF grades steadily rising: 59.2, 64.7, 73.4, 81.8, and 83.6. 

So, we can see that the Packers strategy of running the ball more has actually borne some fruit, and has provided the team with what it’s supposed to from an intangible perspective. But when we look at the more tangible results of the rushing attacks, the numbers have not quite been up to snuff yet. In fact, when we look at the rushing attack by an opponent by opponent basis, the struggles in the running game (albeit with a gradual improvement) become clear. 

The Packers have fluctuated above and below the league average of 4.3 yards per carry week by week, but since their failure in Cleveland, have progressively seen a rise in both success rate and EPA per play when rushing the ball. 

Another trend that I have noticed with the Packers rushing game is LaFleur’s use of jet sweeps (and all related plays) to get the ball into the hands of some of his rookie playmakers, Matthew Golden and Savion Williams. So far, Golden has taken 8 rushes for 45 yards for a yards per attempt of 5.6, and a total of 42 yards after contact. Williams has taken six attempts for 27 yards for 4.5 yards per attempt, and eleven yards after contact. 

For LaFleur, using wide receivers as running back-adjacent weapons is nothing new. He’s obviously done it a ton with Jayden Reed as well, but also with Tyler Ervin in years past, Amari Cooper, Randall Cobb that one time, even Keisean Nixon saw a rushing attempt out of the backfield in 2022. You always want to get the ball into your playmaker’s hands in creative ways, and this is especially true for Williams, who will most likely struggle to play significant, developmental reps as a true receiver this season. 

Next, I want to take a look at the offensive line’s performance in the run game. Perhaps LaFleur sees an avenue to put his OL into a more advantageous spot by rushing? It’s not a crazy theory, considering the line’s struggles through the first six weeks of the season. I consider yards before contact to be the ultimate measuring tool of an offensive line’s performance in the running game, and those numbers are… not great. Going week by week, the Packers have allowed -0.36 YBC, -0.33, -1.94, -1.66, and 0.03. So while the offensive line has certainly struggled to pass protect, they have not been better in run blocking. PFF backs this assessment up, as the Packers run blocking has received a 54.1 grade so far through 2025. So while it could have been possible that the offensive line is better at run blocking than pass blocking, the numbers just don’t back that hypothesis up. Besides, the plain fact of the matter is that the offense’s performance is just better when Jordan Love is passing the ball. 

But the fact of the matter is that LaFleur has yet to willingly unleash Jordan Love. I say willingly, because as soon as it became obvious that the Sunday Night Football game in Dallas was going to be a high-scoring affair, Love was entrusted with multiple game-winning or tying drives at the end of the game. And Love delivered. 

So far through the 2025 season, Love is 8th in completion percentage, 9th in ESPN’s QBR and 5th in traditional QB rating. He’s 6th in PFF’s passing grade, and they’ve charted him with 11 “big time throws” against only 5 turnover worthy plays. So, the Packers have a QB playing at a top 5 level in the league, and a plethora of weapons for him to exploit. There’s also plenty of evidence to back up the proposition that the offense as a whole has been extremely effective while passing the ball. The passing offense is 3rd in EPA per pass, 6th in success rate, and 1st in explosive play rate. So why the 52 - 47 ratio?

There are people who might say that this indicates a lack of trust in Jordan Love by LaFleur. But I just don’t buy that theory. Again, all the evidence is out there that, not only can Jordan Love operate this offense, he can do it at an extremely high level. LaFleur has been extremely complimentary of Love when in front of a microphone. 

Will the Packers begin passing the ball more down the stretch? History actually says no. Through Jordan Love’s time as a starter, the Packers have actually run the ball more in the second half of the season, perhaps not a huge surprise considering where they play in the winter. In 2023, they went from a 58.2% pass rate in the first half of the season to a 57.9%. In 2024, they went from 51.0% to 46.1%. 

Matt LaFleur’s identity is running the ball. It’s what he loves to do. It’s advantageous for so many reasons, and the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field is a great place to do it. Think back to last season, when LaFleur was forced to adapt his gameplan to Malik Willis’ skillset. He created an on-the-fly creative run game that allowed the Packers offense to win a couple games without Love. The answer to the question of this article is: because that’s how LaFleur wants it. 

When it comes to LaFleur’s reliance on the run game, I think it’s also acting as a counterbalance to the general volatility that the Packers offense can experience. Just look at the difference in their production between week three and four. Ten points and 230 yards versus 40 points and 489 yards. Not to mention massive swings in areas like EPA and third down efficiency. When you have an offense that hunts explosives like the Packers’ does, having a steady, positive force like a strong running game is a way for a playcaller to hedge one’s bets when sustaining drives. 

It’s also true, in my opinion, that LaFleur must begin to let the offense flow through Jordan Love. There’s just too much potential out there for the offense, and when you consider the extremely crowded playoff field in the NFC, the Packers are going to need every advantage that they can get.