Could the Packers have pulled off the Titans-Rams Trade?

Could the Packers have one upped the Rams and traded for the 1st overall pick?

The big news in the NFL right is the blockbuster trade between the LA Rams and the Tennessee Titans for the 1st overall pick (and a couple other picks) in the 2016 draft.  The Titans apparently were asking for a king's ransom for the 1st overall pick and boy did they get one with Titans receiving the Rams first round pick (#15), both 2nd round picks (#43 & #45) a third round pick (#76) and the Rams' 1st and 3rd round picks in 2017.  From a pure draft pick standpoint, the Washington Redskins probably gave up more for RGIII (three 1st round picks, one which happened to be 2nd overall and a 2nd round pick) but this is still a stunning move by the Rams. 

The Packers obviously aren't in a position where they need to pick 1st overall, after all it's almost certain that the Rams will select either quarterback Jared Goff or Carson Wentz while the Packers have the best quarterback in the league in Aaron Rodgers.  Also the Packers are a stable and successful franchise and don't need the hype and popularity boost that the Rams will receive.  However, I think this trade really highlights exactly how much teams have to be willing to give up in order to move up in the draft.  

According to the standard "Jimmy Johnson" trade value chart the Rams gave up a difference of 351 draft points (and a total of 3440 draft points) in order to secure the 1st overall pick (assuming the Rams end up in the same draft position they did this year, meaning 15th).  Given that the Rams aren't a good team, are on a lame duck year after moving to a new city and will almost certainly be starting a rookie quarterback, and it's more likely that the Rams will be picking is in the top 10 or even top 5.  Nevertheless in order to the Packers to pull off the same trade the Rams did they would have to:

Trade every single pick they own in the 2016 draft AND

Trade every single pick they own in the 2017 draft AND

Trade the 1st and 2nd round picks they own in 2018.

Naturally this is assuming the Packers pick 27th 3 years running, can't trade compensatory picks (which will be changing).  Also if the Rams do worse then the potential value that the Titans acquired becomes greater.

The real point is that while it's fun to make up situations where the Packers stun everyone and trade up to grab that one player which brings the Lombardi trophy home in reality not only is Ted Thompson not going to make the trade, but he also doesn't have the firepower to make such a trade.  The reality is while the Packers appear to have a lot of ammunition with 9 draft picks, since draft value falls at an exponential rate, picking 27th isn't much different from picking the first in the 2nd round in terms of value.  Remember how much it took for Thompson to get back into the 1st round to pick Clay Matthews with the 26th pick, now imagine how much it would cost to move up to the top 10 or the top 5 to select the guy that the fans want.    

 

 

 

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Comments (48)

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 15, 2016 at 12:15 pm

I'm just now finding about this trade and I'm blown away. I don't even care where the Rams were coming from before getting the 1st pick -- as I was reading what they gave up my "what the f*#k" face grew stronger and stronger.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 12:32 pm

The funny thing is that the RG3 trade was so much more expensive and only netted Washington the 2nd overall pick.

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packerfan9507's picture

April 15, 2016 at 12:17 pm

Hard hitting stuff!

Next on Cheesehead TV: Was Vince Lombardi on the Grassy Knoll?

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 12:34 pm

Yes

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JerseyAl's picture

April 15, 2016 at 02:35 pm

Not into having a little fun? oh well...

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NickPerry's picture

April 16, 2016 at 05:31 am

Gosh Wags, that was a little low. It IS April and they've wrote about every possible thing the last several months IMO to give us "Die Hard Fans" somthing to comment on and enjoy. Personally I wonder how each and every day they come up with some of excellent stuff they do ALL Off Season long.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 16, 2016 at 10:12 am

We could have a mock draft. Just for Evan, my draft could be:

#27: OT
#57: FB
#88: OC
125: Slot WR
131: QB
137: CB
163: Punter
200: Jaylon Smith
248: German WR

Help for 2016 is on its way!

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Evan's picture

April 16, 2016 at 10:03 pm

........

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 17, 2016 at 12:24 am

So, I'm going to assume you don't approve...? Lol

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EdsLaces's picture

April 15, 2016 at 12:52 pm

For a qb from BFE University or a qb who ....doesn't even win very often!!!! What a stupid freakin move Rams. Way to set your franchise back 10 years.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:17 pm

That really highlights how desperate teams are for a start quarterback. Given what you know now, would you have traded all those picks to move up to #1 to select Aaron Rodgers in 2005? I'd think that Rodgers/Brady/Peyton would be worth it. Now you're more likely going to end up with Jamarcus Russell than Aaron Rodgers and that's really the bad part of deal.

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Ibleedgreenmore's picture

April 15, 2016 at 06:00 pm

Now we know what desperate looks like, so glad were not in that boat right.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 06:40 pm

I'm kind of bracing for desperate when Rodgers retires. There's only one other occasion of a HOF QB being replaced immediately by another HOF QB and I don't think the Packers will be lucky enough to go three in a row.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 15, 2016 at 07:13 pm

We didn't know Rodgers would turn out like this. I wouldn't worry about getting another (future) HOF QB until someone other than Rodgers plays a full season for the Pack. For all we know, Hundley might be that guy. Not saying he's a future HOF -- I mean he could be the next QB to take over for the Pack.

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Evan's picture

April 15, 2016 at 09:11 pm

I like Hundley, but right now I'd bet he "retires" before Rodgers does.

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4thand1's picture

April 16, 2016 at 08:44 am

Hundley will end up on another team who will overpay for him.

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NickPerry's picture

April 16, 2016 at 06:51 pm

I like Hundley. I still remember the before his last year at UCLA many were saying he could go in the first round. I can't recall what made him drop so badly but I'm glad he did. I like him a whole lot more than Tolzien and actually feel good about the Packers Back Up QB for the first time since Flynn left. Maybe MM is the QB Guru, maybe it's the system, but whatever it is it works for the QB's in GB.

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4thand1's picture

April 16, 2016 at 09:05 pm

MM knew what he had in AR and didn't want to lose him.
they let Favre walk. where's the credit? He made Flynn into a very good back up, and now is grooming Hundley. So maybe he should get credit for how good AR is. Tolzein is still in the NFL too, and will probably help the Colts.

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hobbes's picture

April 17, 2016 at 08:00 pm

My guess is that Hundley was probably a 3rd round pick and then got lost in the wash as other teams that needed qbs picked other ones. Hundley was considered a more athletic qb with questions on whether or not he could transition to a NFL qb. Certainly not 5th round but not 1st round either

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 15, 2016 at 12:56 pm

How in the hell does Jeff Fisher still have a job???

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:17 pm

It's one of life's great mysteries.

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Since'61's picture

April 15, 2016 at 09:29 pm

This trade is an owner's trade. It's not Fisher's choice. The Rams owner wants to make a big splash with the LA fans. He wants his team to have a star from day one. Is it worth all those picks, of course not, that's why it is the owner's trade. IMO, no player is worth all those picks. Plenty of us remember the Packers disastrous trade for John Hadl in the 70s made by Dan Devine. When Starr took over as head coach he didn't have a decent draft pick for his 1st 2 seasons and the Packers couldn't recover until the 80s. This move will hurt Fisher and the Rams. Thanks, Since '61

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 15, 2016 at 09:57 pm

I'm not even speaking on the trade. His record in the last 11+ seasons is horrible. Only 2 winning seasons since. A move like this will on hurt him.

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Handsback's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:15 pm

Good question on why Fisher still has a job!!!!!!!

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PackerBacker's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:16 pm

This was such an astoundingly awful trade. I can't fathom why the Rams would have done this.

I wonder how many of these trades will need to happen before the teams stop doing them completely.

It was awful for the Saints.
It was awful for Washington.

WTF????

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Evan's picture

April 15, 2016 at 02:07 pm

Not having a QB for, what, 15 years makes teams do crazy things.

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WilsonMaywick's picture

April 15, 2016 at 04:50 pm

Dan Devine and his dog agree with you.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:20 pm

One thing that separates the Rams trade is that they need the hype way more than the Saints or Washington did. Moving to a new city while basically burning bridges on the way out of St Louis means that the number and loyalty of LA Rams fans is basically 0. Making a blockbuster trade and using the 1st overall pick to select the quarterback of the future is a great way to make headlines, at least for a month or two.

Keep in mind Jeff Fisher might have made the trade, but you better believe owner Stan Kroenke was the man who wanted to make the trade.

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Lphill's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:20 pm

Could be as bad as the Ricky Williams draft trade.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:21 pm

Or it could be as good as the Herschel Walker trade, but I highly doubt it.

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AgrippaLII's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:22 pm

Wow!...Does Jeff Fisher understand that he is no longer with Tennesse?

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:53 pm

Maybe he is a Double Agent.

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Point-Packer's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:45 pm

One of the top five dumbest trades in the history of the game. Will ensure the Rams remain in the gutter for at least the next 3-5 years.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:22 pm

They were going to be in the gutter anyways, so they might be trying to make a splash to raise their popularity. Washington was guilty of that for several years (see Albert Haynesworth)

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:53 pm

What an awful trade.

Jeff Fischer--

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croatpackfan's picture

April 15, 2016 at 01:55 pm

Sorry, but I can not see the value of trading up... That is to expensive and you got rookie guy who might not be what you expected. If I am running Rams football operation, I would offer Packers 1st and 2nd round picks this draft for Hundley early enough, so that Packers can keep Scott Tolzien as backup and be happy.
With this trade Rams ruined their future...

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Evan's picture

April 15, 2016 at 02:09 pm

1st and 2nd for Hundley is insane.

If I needed a QB, I would have targeted AJ McCarron with a 2nd round pick.

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 15, 2016 at 03:25 pm

I agree on offering a 1st and 2nd for Hundley, but disagree on the AJ trade.

A rookie QB is just as much of an unknown as Hundley and AJ isn't an upgrade over Nick Foles/Case Keenum.

If I was running the Rams I would have rolled the dice on a QB in the 2nd round or so. My priority would be to continue to build on that Defense. Don't forget they just lost 3 or 4 key Defensive players to Free Agency.

The Cards are on top of that division
The Seahawks are on the decline
The 49ers are pretty much rebuilding.

I understand trying to make a splash in a new State/city, but they're going about it so wrong. The Rams need so much more help now.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:25 pm

The point of the article is to show exactly how much it costs to move up. Obviously I'm not advocating for the Packers to do something similar, but what gets lost a lot of times when fans want the Packers to move up is just how much you have to give up.

Also there's basically no way anyone offers a 1st and 2nd round pick for Hundley. Hundley was good but he didn't show anything outside of the preseason and was a 5th round pick. To put it into comparison, Matt Cassel essentially played the entire regular season for the Patriots and only netted them a 2nd round pick (and the Patriots also had to trade away Mike Vrabel).

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DrealynWilliams's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:58 pm

I agreed on offering a 1st and 2nd for Hundley would be insane.

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FrozenTundra's picture

April 15, 2016 at 03:22 pm

Don't forget Green Bay's own "Lawrence Welk" deal for John Hadl A one and a two and a one two three

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AndrewInAtlanta's picture

April 15, 2016 at 03:51 pm

Well, the Rams failed once in LA and they will be playing in the craphole colliseum until new stadium is finished. You have to think ticket revenue generated by a new hyped QB played a part in this. You couldn't get me out to that stadium without something exciting going on, thats for sure

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:27 pm

I understand why everyone is raging at Jeff Fisher and ultimately he's going to be the one to take the fall when this all goes pear shape, but person who's really at fault is Stan Kroenke; Fisher didn't make this trade, Kroenke did.

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Rossonero's picture

April 15, 2016 at 04:21 pm

Smart move by the Titans. Assuming they can draft somewhat well, they could surpass the Texans and Jags in the next 2-3 years when their draft picks develop.

Colts would be TBD, they seem to be like the Raiders or Lions of years past, drafting lots of WRs but ignoring the need to protect Luck better.

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hobbes's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:29 pm

The funny thing is historically the Titans have been so-so in the draft. That might have had something to do with their former owner Bud Adams who supposedly as bad as Al Davis in his later years.

I mean just look what the Rams did with all the picks they got for the RGIII trade, it's not really pretty.

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4EVER's picture

April 15, 2016 at 05:53 pm

Insane i tell you...

PFF grades Rams OL 28th!

LT Greg Robinson PFF says:
"Dud: Another year like this one, and Greg Robinson will be well on the way to bust status. It’s not just the penalties causing problems—it’s the consistent amount of pressure he’s allowing."

When are GM types ever going to figure it out...insane i tell you! Development of a franchise QB requires first having a franchise LT in place.

Brett Favre LT Ken Ruettgers 1992 - 1995
Arron Rodgers LT Chad Clifton 2008 - 2010

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NashvilleCheesehead's picture

April 16, 2016 at 05:47 am

Not as bad as John Hadl trade, but close!

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4thand1's picture

April 16, 2016 at 08:47 am

The fans in st louis are breathing a big sigh of relief.

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