2025 Draft Class May Have Something to Say About Jaire Alexander's Fate

Can a rookie (or two), entice the Packers to move on?

 

Was gonna go in a different direction this week but since everyone's putting in their two cents, might as well drop mine.

 

Fabled Packers Cornerback Jaire Alexander's been the talk of the town for weeks, and it's making me absolutely miserable.

He's not Myles Garrett, who's disgruntled for reasons that are easily justifiable.

He's not Tyreek Hill, who's "supposedly" disgruntled no longer....(can't BS a BSer Tyreek)

He's not Deebo Samuel, who's disgruntled because....well, because of Christian McCaffrey to be blunt.

 

Instead, it's the front office who's disgruntled with him for being hurt too much. Injuries are a part of the game; and unfortunately, bad things happen to good people. Jaire Alexander's been an exceptional player in this league when he's on the field. You don't see other CBs doing the Griddy and the Waddle after shutting down some of the best receivers in the game today. You also don't hear often of another elite wide receiver who shall not be named essentially leaving the division because he didn't want to see Jaire twice a year.

And yet, we are stuck in a maelstrom of "should he stay or should he go", as if Jaire hasn't done enough already to cement a near-permanent spot on the Packers' active roster for the rest of his playing days. Instead, some Packers fans and a couple of TRAITORS inside of 1265 are happy to ship him off for some measly picks just because he's had a couple of seasons down on his luck, which need I remind you the performance never dwindled when he was on the field at 100%.

But you know what, I'm a Capricorn, and what do Capricorns do? We bring a sense of logic and/or rationale to everything. We keep the rest of you unwashed heathens centered when there's nothing but chaos surrounding you.

That being said, can you REALLY afford to jettison Jaire Alexander, Brian Gutekunst?

(For what it's worth, I don't think this "sentiment" comes from him directly)

The Packers missed Jaire Alexander for essentially 10.5 games in 2024, and the secondary performed well enough to lead the league in takeaways under new Defensive Coordinator Jeff Hafley. Now some might take that as an indicator that the Packers no longer require Jaire's services, but one could also contend that the Packers could accomplish much more with him remaining in their ranks. But for all the accolades this defense did receive, it certainly had its low moments. Going 1-5 in the NFC North (which isn't entirely on the defense) is a performance Head Coach Matt LaFleur will surely want to improve upon. Having a healthy Jaire Alexander on the field can certainly go a long way in doing better than surrendering an average of 26.5 points to division rivals. And while Gutekunst has expressed many times that you don't "chase" teams in this league, the Packers will see the reigning Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles again next year, just this time within the "safe confines" of Lambeau Field.

 

So in a post-Jaire Alexander world, what possibly could the Packers do to replicate their success when they did have him?

Welp, from a history standpoint the Packers haven't faired well recently. Second-best cornerback drafted by Gutekunst? That's Carrington Valentine (didn't see that coming did you?) His best free agent pickup? Keisean Nixon. Both are expected to be back, but if the Packers want to go on to bigger and better things the talent level has to be raised. And while there is a decent amount of free agents available this go-round, I just don't see the Packers breaking the bank for anyone worthwhile, especially considering the gobs of cap they'll eat if they kick Alexander to the curb. So that sends us back to the Draft, and with Eric Stokes most likely given his walking papers and Kalen King probably a Practice Squad stash, Gutekunst has only "hit" on two out of seven selections since taking the helm in 2018.

 

When Jaire came out of Louisville in 2018, he had an average grade of 77.67 over three years per Pro Football Focus. That may not sound all that impressive, but fast forward to the 2025 class, and a lot of the players some of you may be pining for the Packers to take, don't even cut the mustard according to that simple metric. While I'm limited to only the players within the PFF database, only four cornerbacks in the 2025 class surpassed that bar.

Travis Hunter, Colorado - 81.67 (Consensus 1st Overall Pick)

Will Johnson, Michigan - 81.2 (Consensus Top 10 Pick)

Jahdae Barron, Texas - 79.7 (Consensus Top 25 Pick)

Trey Amos, Ole Miss - 78.03 (Projected Day Two Pick)

 

I did manage to find some honorable mentions, however:

Alijah Huzzie, North Carolina - 77.47 (Projected Day Two Pick)

Dorian Strong, Virginia Tech - 75.9 (Projected Day Two Pick)

O'Donnell Fortune, South Carolina - 77.57 (Projected Day Three Pick)

Jabbar Muhummad, Oregon - 77.3 (Projected Day Three Pick)

 

The Packers are picking 23rd Overall, so the odds of getting Travis Hunter are negative, and Will Johnson will be long gone too. The Aggie in me is slowly warming up to Jahdae Barron because I don't think Gutekunst is interested in a 6'3 corner which is the Rebels' Amos. So there you have it folks, just ONE corner who just might be what the Packers need to turn the corner defensively from a coverage standpoint. And that's IF someone doesn't leapfrog the Packers to get him. Seeing as I expect Hunter and Johnson gone by 13th Overall. That's a long time to wait for a team that's needy in the secondary. Otherwise, the Gutekunst and the Packers' Front Office will be bobbing for apples on Day Two, hoping that they can find at least a roleplayer who can push Nixon and Valentine for starter's reps down the stretch. The more I type, the more I like the idea of a Paulson Adebo getting snagged early during Free Agency. You know what, f*ck it, just pay Asante Samuel Jr whatever he wants, and let's play ball. Unfortunately, I still find both scenarios highly unlikely.

Now obviously, I don't have the thousands of hours of tape the Packers FO has, nor do I have the time to view it either. Plus we haven't even reached the Combine, which is going to turn some prospects' evaluations upside down. Every year there are some surprises from deep in the bowels of the Draft plus you have the proverbial lottery of UDFAs. But Gutekunst certainly has his work cut out for him if he's going to select a player to essentially replace Alexander plus find another one who would then count as the Packers "upgrading" the secondary. Assuming he takes the "Ted Thompson Approach" and selects three defensive backs in 2025, he's going to have to "hit" on two out of the three. Given his recent history, that's a tall order for the General Manager.

I know Gutekunst said he wanted to get aggressive this year, but this ain't it. Jaire leaving the Packers makes little to no sense, whether you're talking on the field or off the field. After the 2025 season, maybe we can have this discussion, and that's IF AND ONLY IF, the Packers can find two or more solid defensive backs who can carry the torch for years to come. Until then Jaire Alexander SHOULD be here to stay ladies and gentlemen. The Packers' 2025 success and beyond depends upon it.

And on that note....let's talk about some prospects on Friday!

#GPG

 

 

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Joseph has been an avid fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1997, citing an affinity for dairy products during his childhood and his favorite color, green. Born in Jacksonville, FL, Joseph currently is an Active Duty servicemember in the U.S. Armed Forces. Joseph considers himself a lifelong fan of the game of football, competing since his youth well into adulthood. When it comes to the Pack, Joseph is particularly impassioned about the NFL Draft and collegiate scouting process, and will contribute regularly on CHTV.com leading to that year's upcoming Draft. You can follow him on Twitter at @joeyreyallday.

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Comments (15)

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Alberta_Packer's picture

February 17, 2025 at 08:59 pm

I think that Jaire has more to say about his fate than any other factor. His lack of availibilty ( last 3 years) + emotional immaturity + declining performance = a trade / release. Plus the Packers did OK without him.

As for the CB class - it seems to be a strong draft - going at least 3 rounds deep in quality. I look for the Packers taking at least one CB in any of those rounds.

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Guam's picture

February 18, 2025 at 10:10 am

I dunno AP. I am not a big fan of Alexander's, but cutting him leaves the Packers awfully thin at CB. I am assuming Stokes is gone which leaves Alexander, Nixon, and Valentine as perimeter CBs. I might ride with Alexander for one more year while drafting at least one CB this year. Let Alexander go next year and draft another CB in 2026. The Packers need four boundary CBs for a season. I think that means Alexander for one more year unless Gute drafts multiple CBs this year and gambles on the rookies.

Or Gute spends some cap space on starting veteran CB and drafts a CB as well. Then I could see parting with Alexander now.

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dobber's picture

February 18, 2025 at 10:54 am

My sentiment on JA has been largely the same as yours...until you know you don't need him, you keep him around and don't exacerbate a need. It seems like Gute is trying to stay very Switzerland on JA this off-season, but the media sentiment around the Packers has turned hard to the "expect him to go soon" storylines.

Been reading that there are circumstances where Stokes could come back as a depth piece on a short term low money deal. He'll have a market, but the question is: will it be compelling? As you point out: you need playable bodies in the secondary. HIs play according to a few outlets was better (in albeit limited snaps) as the season progressed in Hafley's system, but for someone who was touted as more of a man guy coming out of college, he's turned mostly into a zone CB in the pros.

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Guam's picture

February 18, 2025 at 12:55 pm

I thought Stokes started to play better in mid season, but (if I remember correctly) he played very little over the last few games. That seemed to be a pretty strong indictment of his play with Alexander out and the Packers short on CBs and in need of bodies. I will be surprised if Stokes is back.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

February 18, 2025 at 11:29 am

I don't see taking a veteran with no experience in GB and booting Ja, unless you get substantially cheaper and also have confidence you're not losing much if anything. Getting rid of Ja saves less than $7MM this year, how do you replace him for that? I don't know how this affects the cap in 2026.

I know everybody's considering Ja not returning to be a foregone conclusion, but I don't think so. It might happen, but I'd be surprised if Gutey's made up his mind already.

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Guam's picture

February 18, 2025 at 01:02 pm

Yeah, pretty much my feelings too SST. Veteran (and good) CBs are not cheap and there is no way you get one of the caliber of Alexander for $7MM. And I doubt Gute rolls with Nixon, Valentine and rookies next year. I see Alexander coming back for 2025 and Gute using a high draft pick on a rookie.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

February 18, 2025 at 02:03 pm

Jaire? "not much of a girlfriend but she's the only one i got." - Supertramp - Breakfast In America.

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Guam's picture

February 19, 2025 at 07:22 am

Perfect summary AP!

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cdoemel's picture

February 18, 2025 at 01:00 am

He’s got one year left on his contract. Extend him for one year. Let him show what he’s got. If he stays healthy.

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Racingdad's picture

February 18, 2025 at 07:27 am

I say redo ja’s contract make it more preference driven if he plays well he gets paid well if not he doses not get paid as well he is still a top cover corner when he plays

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LambeauPlain's picture

February 18, 2025 at 07:44 am

I don't know if Alexander takes himself out of games due to injuries or if the team has sat him 100% of the time.

The Packers have had unhappy experiences with players who would sit themselves while being a locker room cancer...Martellus Bennett and Z Smith come to mind.

Alexander is very self centered man and I am concerned his surly attitude is influencing how he approaches his work. I am sure he's frustrated with his mounting injury resume too. If it is negatively affecting the team...that's a problem.

Some players play through aches and pains that would bench others...Jenks comes to mind as do Preston Smith, Tom, Gary, Enagbare, & Walker. Rookies Bullard, Williams and Cooper put in some gutty performances too.

Toughness is something some have, others do not. Nitschke and Gregg were legendary wounded warriors who always played. So was Charles Woodson. And of course Ironman Favre.

You obviously cannot play with a serious injury. But an Alexander not playing at 90% with some aches and pains for what he's being paid would be noticed by teammates who do, being paid a fraction of his salary.

I'd offer him a reworked K heavy with lucrative performance incentives...if he won't even discuss it, I expect he's happy clipping the coupons to preserve himself for his next big "deal". If he is amenable to an incentive K, that would also tell the team a lot.

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stockholder's picture

February 18, 2025 at 10:34 am

He's a problem. A injury problem.
So just stop the blame game.
Use the money and reload.

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Leatherhead's picture

February 18, 2025 at 12:07 pm

Trying to take the emotion out of it, I've thought for a while that Alexander was finished here. Whatever we've accomplished over the last 4 years has largely been done without his help. And we've paid plenty of money for that. Our defacto starting corners are Nixon and Valentine for the last two years. Alexander hasn't even contributed as much as Stokes. Once Upon A Time, he was a young CB who had made the Pro Bowl twice; now, 4 years later, he's a 28 year-old CB who has made the Pro Bowl twice and can't stay healthy enough to play. We owe him $20M,regardless, but we can eat that and save another $34M in salary over the next two years.

Gutekunst has spent high picks on CBs and doesn't really have a lot to show for it, whereas his picks of some of the bigger guys have at least been able to get on the field and contribute. And so when he said in that presser about a week ago that it was easier to find small guys than big guys....and the WAY he said it...that made me wonder if he's reconsidered his philosophy of drafting these guys early.

I'm wondering if The Plan is to keep six large premium athletes on the field.....Clark, Gary, Wyatt, Van Ness, Walker, Cooper.....and then cover with 3 safeties and two corners. McKinney and Bullard are two guys you want on the field, but you've got to play Evan Williams, too. That puts 3 safeties on the field quite a bit of the time, needing only two corners. If that's The Plan, it would make more sense to get a big guy in the Front 6 rotation.

So I'm thinking, if we could even get ONE legitimate guy in Free Agency that has shown he can make it through an NFL season and do a decent job of covering people, and use him to replace Alexander, it automatically makes us stronger.

Nixon, btw, was last heard talking about himself as the #1 CB on the team. In terms of snaps and tackles, that's what he has been the last two years. I cannot believe that we can't get a better #1 in FA...actually, I've checked and we certainly can....and let Nixon and Valentine see who is going to be #2.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

February 18, 2025 at 04:46 pm

A thoughtful overview. Perhaps the CB issue is not as dire as many fear.

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vin0770's picture

February 20, 2025 at 08:56 am

You say don’t jettison JA vs keeping a marginally available with questionable motivation to play? Couldn’t disagree more, they need some certainty to run the organization, he’s gone.

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