Will the Packers Draft More for Need in 2023?

There are some gaping holes in Green Bay's roster entering the 2023 NFL Draft.

When it comes to the NFL Draft, not drafting for need is a general rule of thumb, but it can only be followed to a certain extent.

The Green Bay Packers are a team which usually sticks to the principle of: ‘best player available’, but that may be tested in 2023.

That’s because unlike in previous years, Packers GM Brian Gutekunst hasn’t given himself the flexibility of entering the Draft with no glaring needs.

In the past, Gutekunst has done a good job of plugging gaps in his roster with veterans ahead of the Draft. While those vets have varied in quality at times, they have served the purpose of allowing the Packers not to ‘reach’ on Draft day.

This year, the Packers have made just two signings outside of re-upping with their own free agents. Every one of their signings is primarily a special teams move.

The result is a lack of quality and depth at tight end, safety, and to an extent, wide receiver. Will Gutekunst make a concerted effort to bolster these positions and toss value to the side?

There is some precedent for this as recently as last year. After the Packers traded Davante Adams to the Raiders, everyone and their mother knew the team needed to draft a receiver early in the 2022 Draft.

While Gutekunst didn’t select a receiver in the first round, he did try. The Vikings would not agree to trade with the Packers as they attempted to get back into the first to take Christian Watson, as this would’ve given them a fifth-year option in Watson’s rookie contract.

Instead, Green Bay moved up early on Friday night to grab Watson, essentially spending two second-round picks on the receiver.

If we’re talking about value in the Draft, it’s fair to say spending two premium picks on one receiver isn’t it, but at the end of the day, the Packers needed a receiver, and they were aggressive in getting one.

Could the same process play out again this year? Green Bay could still use another impact player at the receiver position, and options could be thin on the ground.

Acquiring someone like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who would be an immediate contributor in the slot and pair nicely with Watson and Romeo Doubs, could appeal to Gutekunst. If given the choice, would he take JSN rather than the best EDGE or offensive tackle on his board?

Tight end is a prime position for the Packers to attack aggressively, with Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis the only players with any significant level of NFL experience on the depth chart.

It’s not viewed as a premium position, but with a loaded 2023 Draft class and a serious need, there’s an increased chance of Gutekunst taking a tight end before his usual third-round swing. It wouldn’t be shocking if their pick at 15 was a tight end.

Safety is interesting because although it is a clear area of need for the Packers, the 2023 class is very underwhelming.

If anything, that could lead to an even better chance of Gutekunst ‘reaching’ for need, because if you do have a guy you like in this safety group, you might want to go out of your way to get him.

His athletic testing may ordinarily drop him down Green Bay’s board, but could Brian Branch be in play early due to the dire safety need?

All these questions are worth asking, but ultimately, the answer to: “will the Packers draft more for need in 2023?” is most likely: “no”.

The reason for that is the same reason they haven’t added more veteran players to the roster: Green Bay isn’t hellbent on winning a Super Bowl in 2023.

Last year’s bold move up for Watson was set against the backdrop of the Packers still trying to get back to the big game with Aaron Rodgers, now that he’s (slowly) on the way out the door, there isn’t as much urgency to draft a player you ‘need’.

Even if Jordan Love is a success in his first season as a starter, which is a genuine possibility, the Packers probably aren’t going to win it all. If that’s the case, who cares if your safety play is bad for another year?

They may not be fully rebuilding, but 2023 will be a year of evaluation, not just for the new starting quarterback, but to see which other players (and coaches) should be along for the ride as Green Bay looks to re-open a championship window in 2024 and beyond.

With that in mind, the prudent thing for Brian Gutekunst to do next weekend is select the prospects he thinks will grow into the best Packers and contribute not specifically in 2023, but for years to come.

 

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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres

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Comments (205)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Boneman's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:24 am

The Packers drafted Kenny Clark in a year they had a clear need at DT. The Packers drafted Rashan Gary when they had a clear need at edge. Alexander and King after other draft picks clearly busted at position. Traded up to take Savage and Watson at positions of...wait for it...clear need. I would argue that the Pack has been drafting this way for some time now and is probably why they've been under performing.
This year it will be no different. Watch for D Line and TE to be targets of pure need early in draft and doubling up later in draft. Wide receiver will be a middle of the draft target with CB lurking as a target of opportunity if value is good in a deep class. I believe the Pack feels set at OL and Safety through the signings they've made and previous drafts. Oh, don't be shocked if a QB gets picked fairly early.
Bold Pick at 15 - Bresee and look for a trade up to get Kincaid in late 1st.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:48 am

Bresee has an injury history to be very nervous about. Certainly that might drop him and make him a high risk, high upside choice. He’s the type of pick many never forget if the health issues continue.

Gary might have been at a position of need, but he was a player expressly brought in based on talent to develop for future potential, not contribution that year. Was Wyatt seen as similar to that or just one that took longer than planned or was held back by coaching favoritism?

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:15 pm

Also has shorter arms for a 6'-5" guy. Ojomo is my 3-4 DE of choice, only 6'-2" + but with 34½" arms that height only helps in the leverage battle with guards. After Wahle raced about him on his DT breakdown I watched him against Alabama and he was a serious force, if they didn't double him he was disrupting the play. Smart kid with his head on straight ready to work.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:38 am

Bresee plays way too high. Hes gonna get steamrolled in the NFL. Love his passion and motor, but leverage is everything and he willingly cedes leverage on nearly every play that I watched of him. A superior athlete can get away with it in college but not in the NFL. I wouldnt draft him anywhere before mid to late 2nd round.

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mrtundra's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:01 am

I expect a Defensive player picked early, in this draft. Whether it be a Safety, an Edge player or a DT. All are positions of need. BPA in the first round may be RB Bijan Robinson. Do we take him at 15, if he is there? He is a generational player at his position. I remember GBP passing on Barry Sanders and picking Tony Mandarich, instead, one draft. We will find out who the GBP value starting Thursday night.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:08 am

We took the consensus generational player then in Mandarich. Look where that got us. He was far more of a certainty than Bijan is seen as. Be careful we don’t draw the wrong lesson from that.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:15 am

Yes! Even Jimmy Johnson said they considered taking him instead of Aikman first overall.
In the end, what a horrible disappointment. But at the time, nobody called Mandarich a reach.

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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:52 am

Why in the F would anybody want Bresee?

For the life of me, using an R1 on that injury history, with a very small resume. I cannot fathom that.

Injured players generally stay injured players.

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PASSdaRELISH's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:50 am

So does the same apply to JSN?

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:28 pm

Please let JSN get picked before us so we don't even think about making that mistake. There are so many good WRs we can pick later.

Lets try to fill most of our needs this year with the best players at the position we need the most,
By trying to trade back for more picks and winning the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
By not sliding other needs ahead of our biggest needs

And definitely by NOT trading up and wasting valuable picks.
For example those four 7th round picks, if we don't waste them by trading up, could be:
Evan Hull-RB
Jake Witt-OT
Jake Moody-K
Tavius Robinson-E, Robert Beal-E,Jacob Slade-DT,Tyson Bagent-QB,Jason Taylor-S

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:05 pm

Four better receivers in the Big10 over JSN. Marvin Harrison,Jr and Charlie Jones were the top wides last autumn. Do any of the draft Fans watch the Games? The MAC conference has three RBs who can play, don't under sell Ibrahim from the Gophers. No guy weighing 170 Lbs is going to be an NFL bell cow, no matter how fast he runs in a straight line. He best move into round six to secure a guy who may fall. Moody is not going to last into round 7 for the low ballers.

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Oppy's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:21 pm

"Injured players generally stay injured players."

Well, that's just not true. Injuries are a part of football.
Find me a college player that's never dealt with injury...

I hate to do this, because I've referenced the player earlier today, and he's been referenced here in this very thread for other reasons.. but let me answer my own question.

Tony freakin' Mandarich. It was one of the completely unheard of items about Tony.. he was virtually never injured in his football career before the pros.

Football players get injured. It's just the way it is.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:40 am

Rashaad Penny had the best injury grade John Schneider ever gave a player. He's missed more games due to injury than he's played.

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KenEllis's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:22 am

I think and hope this year will be different.

Nobody expects Green Bay to compete for a Super Bowl in 2023, so if there are gaps in the roster so be it.

Grab the best player available to help the team compete for a Super Bowl in 2-3 more years.

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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:42 am

Football games are won on the field, not in people's minds. Basing decisions on people's expectations of not competing is pure foolishness. I want this team to have the mindset that they're playing to win and nothing else.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:05 pm

Two strikes with those guys. One more and they would be out of contention.

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Heyward's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:05 pm

Every team drafts for need, some more than others.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 24, 2023 at 05:49 am

The Packers have been picking for need for years. Moreover, that's what they should have been doing because they had a window in which to win a super bowl.

That said, they didn't do enough of it rather than too much, imo. Gute did draft guys he fell in love with like Gary (who wasn't needed after signing Preston and Z Smith), Savage, and Jordan Love. The hell of it is that the 2019 draft was loaded. If not Gary, Wilkins, Lindstrom, Lawrence, Burns and Jeffrey Simmons all would have been fine, and most had those guys in that specific area.

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gsd3's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:36 am

There are immediate needs as well as possible upcoming. Bakhtiari will likely be gone after 2023. Savage and Dillon could be gone as well. Preston Smith?
Immediate needs:
TE, DL, Backup QB to me are the top 3. OL should be ok for now. 2024? If Savage returns to form, safety should be ok for now. 2024? Corner......who knows if Stokes will return to form? He was not playing well before he was injured.
Cannot fix everything in one draft.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:55 am

Stokes won’t return to form if he’s asked to play soft off coverage in my view, it’s possible he gets better, but that’s asking him to play against type—against his strengths for which we picked him . The same could be the case with Savage. Barry has to change to let players play to strengths or I don’t see things going well.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:21 am

Infuriating, I know!
Also, I have a hard time describing Savage’s strengths as a player. Not a good tackler. Coverage? I do not know.
But he CAN run fast.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:11 pm

Both players had team mates that were better choices for selection at their respective positions. The onus is on the scouting and Gutedkunst. They cannot blow this draft with Love facing beaucoup pressure to succeed.

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croatpackfan's picture

April 24, 2023 at 05:48 am

gsd3, watch the podcast "openmike" with David Bakhtiari. Lot of things will be clearer after that.
David Basically said that he is excited for the season, but, Packers will know where they are not before start of the new season. He also said that he do not "not like" Jordan Love. If he would be on that mindset, he would say it. Also he said that, as he is somewhat the oldest guy in the room he feel little wierd, but still has a lot of fun with Jordan and the guys. He plan to play for Packers and admits that his contract is looking like this is like his last season at Packers, but nobody can tell. Because contract can be extended and he will have no problems to negotiate with FO about that. He understands that FO has their responsibility and he said that he does not know what is all in question with FO's job. He said that TT very rarely spoke with the players, while Brian Gutekunst is more relax in that part of his job (sounds like he like that!).

It was long interview, but I chose to point out some thing thwt were said and that David Bakhtiari still consider himself as Packers player. He also said that his injury is now behind him and he looks forward to the new season.

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Savage57's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:42 am

Grab the best of the bigs early, then skill positions, trade out of the accursed third, and realize the four 7th rounders are pretty much darts-on-the-wall camp meat.

This draft, if it follows history, does not represent salvation.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:21 am

Prediction: this year’s third will NOT suck!

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:14 pm

Let the Fans make the selection. There will be better results. Have a ranked-order vote and keep Gutedkunst away from the podium.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:19 pm

That would be fun to see a team do that for a few years. Big question is who do you hire to clean up the mess? But 0-17 hasn't been done yet so why not?

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:21 pm

One of the 7ths should be spent on Moody the Michigan Kicker. He would be a perfect Crosby replacement. Big hole filled.

Another could be spent on OT Jake Witt-Northern Mich. If he lasts that long. Bears have been on him for over a year. A real sleeper with sky high potential.

There is a lot of talent available in the mid rounds this year and the 3rd round is where our best Safety options come off the board. Or a WR or 2nd TE. Nope not trade out of the 3rd, but maybe a trade farther down in 3rd to add 2 picks could be sweet. We have no picks in the 6th round so there will be a beer run gap between #170 and our first 7th rounder.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:35 pm

He needs to get into the sixth round to stay in the game.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:50 pm

If we got Witt, I’d immediately get him on STs and working on being a Lewis extra OL while he develops as an OL. He has played TE in the past and, actually, supposedly has decent hands, so he could be an occasional outlet too. I’d also see if he could be a lead blocker. He has the athleticism to be a FB option in heavy sets and have the capability to leak out too. He’s a player that one has to be imaginative with early on, I think.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:50 am

Thankfully, we likely will finally find out what the Packers get in exchange for AR in the upcoming week. While I still have hopes for #13 my mock drafts tend to include the following AR trade:

- Exchanging #15 for #13
- Receiving the #42 & #43
- Conditional #2 in 2024

Whether this turns out exactly like the above who knows, but it seems reasonable to me. My continuing pre-draft research has me significantly changing my approach as the draft gets closer. I'd go the following:

1. This is a significant change in my draft philosophy.....I'd take a good OT such as Paris Johnson, or Broderick Jones over any other position/player unless someone like Tyree Wilson fell. The JSN hype with his injury history makes me luke warm about needing to draft JSN with the #15. There is really good value for WR's in round 2 thru 4.
2. I would not take JSN, or Quentin Johnston if the Packers have only 1 pick in round 1. Should the Packers have two selections in round 1, with the 2nd selection I'd take either JSN, Johnston, or Kincaid. I really like each of these WR's that are available in rounds 2 - 4, such as Marvin Mims (really like him) at 5'11" and 183 lbs, running a 4.38. AT Perry at 6/3 & 1/2" and 200 lbs running a 4.47. Jonathan Mingo at 6'2" at 225 lbs running a 4.46. Cedric Tillman at 6'3" and 215 lbs running a 4.54. Pick-up any two of these guys in rounds 2 - 4, and the Packers WR corps will be very good with Doubs & Watson.
3. In the 2nd round with possibly 3 - second round selections depending on the AR trade I have a crush on three Edge rushers, particularly Felix Anudike - Uzomah, but also BJ Ojulari, and Will McDonald. Either would be great value & Felix has Pro Bowl possibilities in his future.
4. I like Mazi Smith as that big brute & strong DL with one of those 2nd round selections.
5. If the Packers should have 3 selections in round 2 I often like taking Hendon Hooker at QB with one of the three selections. Talk about solidifying the QB situation with a low cap hit for a lot of years. That is a lot of draft capital in round 2 and taking Hooker with that extra pick would make a lot of sense.
6. With so many good TE's unless Kincaid is there in round 1 or 2, I think the Packers should hold off and grab a couple of the following Tucker, LaPorta, Fordham, Whyle, Sims. These TW's are available anywhere from late 3rd round down to 7th round. Kincaid is going to be special whether used at TE, or a big/power slot WR. He will change how the defense plays the Packers type of player. Felix & Kincaid would look extremely good with the Packers. Often I will substitute Darnell Washington instead of Hendon Hooker in round 2 should the Packers be so fortunate to have those three selections in round 2.

The Packers stand a chance to really boost their talent level depending on the AR trade, and how the draft unfolds.

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Crystalblue1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:30 am

My brother we are not getting all that for a one year rental.We’re just not.I see simply a second round pick and a possible one next years along with a player maybe.But all them picks u mentioned no way.Last year sure this season no way

8 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:03 pm

I 'always' continue to think big all the way up until we actually know the final parameters of the trade. Will it end up being with the Jet's, the 49's, New England, or the Tennessee Titans? Are there players involved? No one has any real knowledge of what is transpiring but a lot of people making money on the internet such as podcasters, internet sports writers, and others all have their opinions and thoughts.

If it was simply the #42, and a second round pick in 2024 with conditions this deal would have been finalized sometime ago. Are there other players involved with the trade? I say there is a lot more value in getting the #42 & #43 in 2023, vs the #42 in 2023, & a number 2 with conditions in 2024 that might become a late round selection in round 1.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:11 am

True enough, but the trade would have been done long ago if it were pick 42 this year and a conditional 2-1 IF the Packers would have accepted that, and/or if GB would have sent back a 2025 pick if AR retired after one season. They might still concede some of all of these points when push comes to shove.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2023 at 09:24 am

Then sprinkle in some negotiations mangling by Murphy and you have an enigma, surrounded by a mystery, wrapped in a shroud.

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Guam's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:14 am

I wish I was as optimistic as you are Knock. I think the Packers will be fortunate to get a #2 this year and a conditional #1/#2 next year. The big payout ship sailed last year with Denver and I will forever hold Murphy in contempt for passing on that haul.

With no cap room for the next two years and a number of roster holes to fill, I fear the Packers will be in rebuild mode until 2025.

5 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:16 am

Yeah, but, coming off a 13 win season, knocking on the SB door, trading 12 at that time woulda been looked at as NUTS. At the time, anyway.

NOW it looks like it woulda been great, but they do this stuff in real time. No benefit of hindsight.

Just like if we’d all line up our collective 20 draft “crushes” right now, I’d wager that in a year or two, half of them will turn out to be…less than awesome.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:23 pm

The Terms of the Contract extension and the Money was the failure.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:40 pm

There was also, I think, a failure to accept what the reality was around him. There’s no point in putting a 10 carat diamond in a lead ring. Just about everything about that deal seems to have been rooted in a self-assessment that was fantasy.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:21 pm

That indictment still points the finger at the management team. They built the roster.

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:31 am

It was intended to.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:45 pm

TK,
I hollered, screamed, cried & made as much noise as I could here at CCTV about trading AR to Denver a year ago. Didn't need hindsight to know it made a lot of sense.

BTW, I pre-draft in 2020 that the Packers would draft Jordan Love in round 1. No need for hindsight baby! :)

We won't talk about some other drafts and how I performed vs reality. LOL!

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Guam's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:42 pm

TK: Many commenters (including myself) were advocating to trade Rodgers last year - not really all that nuts. It was a business decision that was based on Rodgers' age, a roster that did not appear SB capable, Rodgers repetitive failures in NFC conference championship games and the incredible trade value offered by Denver. At some point the Packers were going to have to rebuild and many thought it should have started last year.

Not hindsight, but analysis and a willingness to make hard decisions.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:03 pm

Yes. One sadly vindicated.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:32 pm

I have to admit I was really sick of a lot of his biz…hero ball, eye rolling, off-field oddities (I know that’s none of my business. Had GB won the SB he would get a lot more leeway re: the woke mob, immunization status, etc), so it’s hard for me to say I would have wanted to trade him for strictly football reasons.

1 points
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Guam's picture

April 24, 2023 at 08:28 am

Rodgers personal affectations can be irritating, but we have all had coworkers or employees that were similarly problematic. If they do their job well, so what?

If that same coworker/employee is nearing retirement age, you plan for his replacement. If the opportunity arises to get unexpected value from his retirement, you take it since the ongoing success of the enterprise is the most important issue. Many here at CHTV could have traded him for strictly football reasons.

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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:15 pm

I wanted GB to trade AR two years ago. 1000%.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:28 pm

Due to his play? Or because you were sick of his…eccentricity?

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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:53 pm

Both.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:06 pm

Guam,
I agree we screwed up not taking the trade last year. Look at how well Seattle is now set-up moving forward. As I say above.....I am going to continue to think positively and big up until I hear the final trade compensation. If it was just a #2 this year, and a number 2 next year with conditions this deal should have been finalized a month ago.

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Guam's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:45 pm

Knock,
Everything I am hearing is the difference is whether it is a #2 next year or a #1 next year. Which side will blink first......

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:14 am

Hendon Hooker is not solidifying anything. Firstly he’s a guy from a very far from pro offense with minimal reads, secondly he’s likely to miss all summer and camp and maybe more due to a late November ACL. He’s likely just a body we can’t get to the PS and won’t ever activate this year even if we have an injury. He’s older than Love to start with as well. Utter waste of a second for this year (possibly any year), and for that reason alone I wouldn’t touch him.

6 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:20 am

Coldworld:

Joe Burrow tore his ACL in Week 11 - November 22, 2020 in Washington - and was back to start Game 1 on September 12, 2021.

Chris Simms - former NFL QB I am sure you remember and Phil Simms son - has a much different view than you on Hendon Hooker. Has Hooker being the 3rd QB picked in the first round - you can listen here:

NFL Draft 2023 QB rankings: Hendon Hooker, Tennessee | Chris Simms Unbuttoned | NFL on NBC

Thinks the age thing is ridiculous.

Hooker is less than 10 months older than Love , so what?

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:44 am

I’ve read Chris Simms. And you know that. How about forming your own opinion rather than just copying and pasting others. Or even perhaps trying to read more than one at least.

Hooker is 10 months older than Love who is entering his 4th year. Add to that the fact that the guy likely redshirts this year in effect because he’s going to miss most, if not all of the summer, and thus probably won’t run the scout team under LaFleur’s precedent even if he’s healthy starting the season.

Of course I’ve pointed this out to you before. Chris Simms likes Love better, he also likes Young and Stroud better too. He also accepts that Hooker is likely not helping anyone now dud to injury and does need some work too.

If I am putting the work in on a prospect needing development, I can start with a guy who will be through his first contract and be younger than Hooker before Hooker ever throws a preseason pass. Better chance to get trade capital if Love works out. If Love doesn’t, can still hang around developing while we draft better.

In this draft, there are a number of candidates that have attributes and technical flaws that will be available later, some of whom have demonstrated the ability to go thorough progressions more complex and numerous that the simple choices called for in the Volunteers vertical spread offense, which is designed to minimize the need to do more than just identify the intended receiver’s route choice based on coverage.

You just grab something to cut, paste and parrot over and over.

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Oppy's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:24 pm

He's literally the most annoying poster on CHTV ever.
That's saying something.

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:24 pm

Nah, Stockholder's word jumbles are more annoying.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:40 pm

Here is my reasoning on why I sometimes will draft Hendon Hooker in mid-round 2, but I only draft Hooker if the Packers are fortunate enough to have three selections in round 2 ($42, #43, and #45).

CW, If Hooker is as talented as the media proclaims combined with all the reasons you mention above explains why I sometimes draft Hooker. Because of his injury and unavailability is why Hooker likely will fall considerably in the draft. If he does....for the right team (possibly the Packers) it could be a great selection for value. Is he truly a top 10-15 quality player in this year's draft but falls far enough into round 2, or possibly 3 then the Packers should consider him if they can get great value. As a GM, whose hands are tied (cap) and who will be rebuilding the team through the draft Gutey should strongly consider a guy like Hooker. If you can get Hooker for a mid-to-late 2nd round, or possibly in the 3rd round it would be irresponsible for Gutey to not consider drafting him. Should Jordan Love struggle in 2023 you may already have a potential franchise QB on the team who has been in all the QB meetings for a year, & who is familiar with the playbook going into 2024. Many on here have been clamoring for using both the Packers 2024 1st round draft choices (if they get the Jet's #1), and bundle them to move up and draft a QB next year should Love not play well in 2023. Why use up all that draft capital when you can select a similar quality QB in 2023 for a mere 2nd, or 3rd round draft choice? Plus, he will have a whole year learning MLF's offense since he is coming from the spread & vertical offense at Tennessee.

1 points
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ReaganRulz's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:29 am

Agree with everything except the potential pick of a QB in the earlier rounds. We have too many holes to worry about then finding Love’s replacement. Lets get some offensive weapons to help Love succeed.

5 points
5
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:51 pm

We have a lot of holes for sure to plug but I disagree about the QB. The key is 'if' the right QB fell and had significant upside I'd sure hope Gutey would take them if they had a much higher grade than the draft spot. The Packers will not be able to plug every hole & build depth in just the 2023 draft no matter how hard we want it to be the panacea. This will be an on-going fluid draft & develop for a number of years. If a good QB is there like say Hendon in round 2 it would make sense to draft him injury rehabilitation or not. It takes a good 3 - seasons for most QB's to be ready to become a good QB1. Whether Hendon is the right QB who has the ability to be a viable starter in the NFL over another QB time will tell. The Packers just need to draft a quality QB2 that will be on the team for the next 4-seasons with upside. Selecting a low round rent-an-arm turnstile QB shouldn't make much sense.

1 points
2
1
golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:42 pm

If Hooker or Bijan fell to us they would be some very valuable trade bait. Hooker looked great last year until he got hurt, and that was his best (at the time) WR, Tillman getting hurt right away. He didn't skip a beat and made Hyatt a lot of money. Not everyone plays for 15 years. Any other year I would pick him, but this year I wouldn't use the pick on him, I would trade it to someone for 2 #1 picks.

1 points
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WD's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:52 pm

The question is do we go we draft a premier edge Rusher first? Or a premier TE first? I have mixed feelings as it seems we need BOTH equally.

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:42 pm

Knock, not that it makes any difference, but since you mentioned Mims, here is something astounding I found out about him doing research on WRs.

Mims holds the Texas high school record for career receiving yards @ 5485!!!! Also he holds the single season record of 2629 and had 32 TD catches that same year!!!! Jesus his single season record is more than any of my pathetic Iowa Hawkeye receivers had in their entire careers.

Mimms is pretty damn good. There are so many WRs this year that could really make a big impact for Love and the Packers. And we don't have to waste that first pick to get one.
Wouldn't it be funny if we traded back from #15 and got the Top TE in the draft. And then used the 2 extra picks we got, a 2nd and a 4th, to pick 2 difference making WRs with those picks. I would love Ford-Wheaton and Landers, but I would be thrilled with any combo of Mims, Hutchinson, Perry, Mingo, Tillman , Rice, Iosivas. Or even later Donte Demus, Elijah Higgans, Jared Wayne, Aaron Schropshire.
I was watching video today of small school star WRs and there is real talent there too. Deions old school Jackson State has a ton of NFL talent all over the place.

-1 points
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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:53 pm

WR Denzel Mims included in trade by NYJ would be welcome, for sure. I love what you found there, golfpacker.

-3 points
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marpag1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:12 pm

I don’t know if you’re being serious about Denzel, but I have heard some people are mentioning him as trade compensation. Personally, I have zero interest in Denzel Mims. He’s played in only 33 of 50 possible games (66%), and during those games, he’s been next to invisible. In his 3 seasons, he’s averaging 225 yards per season, and he’s never had more than 357. Even if you focus only on the games when he was active, he is still a non-factor. In only 4 of his 33 active games did he catch passes for more than 50 yards. He’s never had a 100-yard game. In the 33 games in which he was active, he’s averaged only 20 yards per game. He has never scored an NFL touchdown. His catch rate of 45.6% is an absolute abomination (42 receptions on 92 targets). Despite being a big-bodied WR, he has played only 3 snaps on special teams in his career, which is to say that he is utterly useless as a special teamer.

There is just no way I want this guy to be considered as a part of “compensation” for the Rodgers trade.

3 points
3
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:49 pm

Thanks Green, you know I have a man crush on Denzel Mims because I think he could be a star in GB, and he is cheap. The Jets have been a really bad organization and have misused a number of players including Denzel. They don't need him and we do. Lets pounce.

The stats that Marvin Mimms put up in high school are like from a video game. Its hard to even get your head around those numbers. He is a 100 catch guy in the NFL if he gets with the right team. Like us.

-2 points
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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:59 pm

Well, that’s the whole point. He’s a cheap throw in that fits the zero dead cap threshold. What’s the harm in finding out at no risk?

-1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:54 pm

Golf,
A few months ago, I sat down and watched about the top 15 WR's. Then along the way I've watched several of them one or two more times. However, this morning I selected those WR's who I think are going to be there in round 2 & 3, and early round 4. Then I watched one right after another for comparison. They all look good, but that Mims seems to be pretty damn special and if you could get him late round 2, or early round 3 I'd be very happy!

-4 points
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4
golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:11 pm

Well Knock, I am out on the OT pick in the 1st round. I want my first round pick to be playing from Day One and being a difference maker for us. Any Ot we would pick in the first will be sitting all year, unless Bahk gets traded later in the year, in which case you can throw the kid to the wolves then because our season is probably over. I am happy with what we have on the O-line now. Njiman should start this year, Jenkins will be 100% healthy, Myers will be too and will play better (yeah I wanted Creed too, but Myers was the 2nd best in the draft), Toms has another year of experience, and I expect Rhyan and Rasheed Walker to contribute this year. They were both highly rated, so they didn't become dogshit in one year.

I love Mazi and if I could choose one DT in this draft it is him.

I am also out on spending a 2nd round pick on Hooker. I think he is the 3rd best QB this year, but if we somehow have 3 or 4 second round picks to play with this year, we can get seriously rich with hole-filling talent this year. That would fill 4 big needs with probable starters in 2 rounds. TÈ, Edge, WR, and DT. BOOM.

Kinkaid, if healthy would change our offense instantly. But these top guys catch the ball so well that if we get any of the top ones with the first pick and 2 more later, the TE room is a strength. If we use the TEs the right way, instead of as option #5 like we have, our offense could be scary.

-1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:35 pm

I think it’s reasonable to assume an OT good enough to be picked at 15 would beat out Nijman this year and replace Bakh next year.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:27 am

Let’s be honest, outside of possibly RB, QB, CB, name a position where a first round pick can’t be described as fitting “need” this year?

7 points
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1
splitpea1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:40 am

Mostly agree, but I wouldn't want to see a first rounder used on the IOL. Or really the second, either, unless Gute strongly believes he's a special player.

1 points
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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:01 pm

Hey, splitpea1,

I could see OT Darnell Wright at #13 and OG O’Cyrus Torrence at #15 for the Packers.

Nijman. Jenkins. Tom. Torrence. Wright.

Who’s going to stop that? It would be really smart considering Jordan Love’s 1st season as QB1.

Let Aaron Jones & AJ Dillon feast.

PS. I’ve never, in my entire life, wanted our Packers to take an OG in R1, until now.

-3 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:58 pm

I was very pumped about Darnell Wright in round 1 for the Packers even over the top three, however I then watched a podcast where they described Wright as talented, but very lazy. Who isn't willing to put in the extra work to be a top player. This has dropped him out of my top list of 4-5 players for round 1. I have learned throughout life you cannot motivate someone over the long-haul. Briefly you can but not day in and day out. If what is reported is true I would think Wright is going to fall somewhat to later round 1, or even high round 2.

-1 points
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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:10 pm

Hmmm. Agree on that mindset being a no go. Non starter.

Broderick Jones then!

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:55 pm

If Darnell Wright = Mehki Becton then I am out. We don't need him that bad. I also have read multiple articles of scouts saying he has great talent but is lazy. Plus, if he wouldn't start right away I would be pissed that I made a bad pick. Other than QBs most of the times, first round picks had better be starting and playing well.

-1 points
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GregC's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:50 pm

Yes, I think most would agree that a first-round OL would have to be a tackle. Not many IOLs are taken in the first round anyway.

2 points
3
1
TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:17 am

The benefit of having so many needs! 😬

4 points
4
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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:13 pm

Shhhhh! No one’s supposed to know. Zip it.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

April 23, 2023 at 07:28 am

just like when he played, Rodgers will NOT be the savior of the GBP.

His value has bottomed out and other teams know it. That coupled with the Packers hand-tipping regarding his 'availability' has absolutely ruined the market for his services (such as they are).

There will be NO draft day haul of picks for AR.

The GBP (MM) will be left with egg all over his face from playing this situation sooooo stupidly.

-8 points
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10
ReaganRulz's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:34 am

Rodger’s will be motivated to prove everyone wrong. He really had no motivation left with the Packers. No, we won’t get a haul for Rodger’s but getting at least a high pick this year and a conditional 1 next year would be fine.

2 points
2
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:29 am

Rodger’s what?
Did the Jets not talk to him extensively about playing one or more years? Kind of a big deal!
Or did 12 say, “I’ll decide after the first season with the Jets if I want to play longer”?

2 points
2
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:53 pm

This is taking too long and the chance of it blowing up seems stronger every day. In my mocks I trade Rodgers to the Niners for all three of their 2023 thirds, two 2024 3rds and a player. At this point, to just get it done so we can get on with the draft, and to stick it to the Jets for making this take way longer than it should, I would take that deal with San Francisco.

It's not as sexy as 1 or 2 seconds this year and a 1st or 2nd next year, but in spite of what posters here think about 3rd round picks, we could fill a lot of holes with that mini haul. Although I WAS also hoping for MIms and Ruckert to come back from the Jets in the deal.

-2 points
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2
barutanseijin's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:52 am

How do you propose trading guys while not letting people know that you want to make a deal? No one is beating down the door for Rodgers.

0 points
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1
GregC's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:53 pm

Considering how onerous that contract is, sometimes I wonder if the Packers should have to pay another team for taking Rodgers off their hands. It would be different, of course, if more than one team was interested in Rodgers, which has never appeared to be the case.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:00 pm

JB,
You may end up being correct, but my hope is we get more than a 2nd round draft choice this year. Getting talent in 2023 is the important thing and more my concern than some draft choice in 2024 with conditions.

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:44 am

wow, lots of dislikes for my truthful statement.

1 - Rodgers was NEVER the savior of the GBP. Rodgers had an all-time All Star WR room, he was just along for the ride. I remember the defense playing lights out against Pittsburgh in the only SB won by GB in AR's years. "it is time" ...and it was... time for Clay Matthews to bail out the GBP! Jarret Bush anyone? Game saving INT vs Rapistberger? I remember.

2- GBP management has completely mishandled AR and his contract for many many years culminating in the current contractual debacle they implemented and now suffer under.

3 - No team is clamoring to offer multiple draft picks for AR's services today. The one (!) team that would even acquiesce to accept him on their team now wants him basically for free and the gbp HAVE no LEVERAGE TO NEGOTIATE WITH THAT TEAM OR ANY OTHER THANKS TO THEIR PREVIOUS HANDLING OF ar AND HIS CONTRACT.

0 points
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stockholder's picture

April 24, 2023 at 11:55 am

There should be NO trade.
His Value is to the Packers.
Regardless whether he plays or Not.

0 points
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1
LambeauPlain's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:08 am

Gutey (like most drafters) always talks about taking the BAP. However, when on the clock, most teams draft for need.

The Packers do a bit of a hybrid in my view...draft for specific positions of need and select the BAP at that position when on the clock. If a DL prospect is rated higher than an Edge on their board, he will likely become the Packer.

But if, Bijan Robinson, RB, happens to fall to 15, it is more likely than not he will not become a Packer because RB is not a top position of need even though Robinson would be the BAP on the board at any position.

As a fan, I would love to see Robinson in GB. His talent in the MLF IOC offense opens up possibilities that are exciting. Imagine Bijan in the slot, AJ at RB. Or Bijan in the slot and AJ, AJD in the Pony. How about Bijan at RB and AJ in the slot. All three are very good receivers. How do you cover them with Watson and Doubs on the perimeter?

But if Robinson falls and one of the top OL or Edge prospects falls too...we will probably be thinking about "what it might have been" with Bijan who could be a generational talent in the same vein as Barry Sanders.

2 points
3
1
Guam's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:18 am

LP: I would much rather see the Packers trade back with some other team that covets Robinson and pick up an additional selection in the second or third round. The Packers have too many needs to draft a player at one of the few positions where they have some quality depth. More choices and plug more holes.

4 points
4
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:45 am

Guam, I am with you. I have commented frequently this is a great draft for Gutey to trade back and accumulate picks. And yes, build with quality depth and simultaneously lower salary costs to attack the Cap Monster.

I was referring to Gutey drafting for need or BAP. Even if he trades down I expect he would draft BAP at specific positions of need...TE, Edge, OL, WR, DT. (I don't list SAF because I don't see a BAP at SAF eclipsing another BAP at other Packer positions of need.)

4 points
4
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:08 pm

I think Bijan is our Golden ticket if he falls to #15. He will be worth more than what you would normally get for a trade up because he is that good. He could make any team other than Tennessee better @ RB if they had him. And you are right about the multiple roles he could play for a team. If GB picked him not only would he be a better RB than Jones, (who is a fabulous RB) but we get the added benefits of a decent trade pick back for Jones and out from under that contract.

I would try to trade him first because he could be worth the other teams first rounder plus 3 more picks or even a player if it was someone we wanted. Can you imagen Bijan with KC, or Buffalo, or Philly, Dallas, Cincy? Someone would pony up the goods.

0 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:51 pm

No. Jones is a weapon but getting older. Dillon was meant to be a hammer, but rarely is and he has been hesitating before contact and is in his final season. RB is/will be a need. Dillon took an excess time to play a bigger role. We need to get ahead of the game and draft Bijan or Gibbs to help out Love this year and in the near future.
If 50% of the offense is the run game....It's 50% of the problem or solution, but that also goes for the OL.

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:57 pm

Bijan would help us 2 ways. He would be our best RB and that lets us trade AJ later in the year for 2 picks. It also gives us the trade back opportunity that would make this a great instead of a good draft. Multiple teams will move up for bijan and Hooker. Hopefully to #15.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:18 pm

That's a good point...trading down IF B. Robinson was to drop to #15.

As much as I would love to see Robinson in a Packer uniform, trade down offers to Gutey would be very attractive. Robinson is an amazing talent.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:02 pm

LP,
I hear ya and agree!

I believe good chance he goes to Detroit and we might have to face him twice a year. Wouldn't that suck?

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:18 am

Conversely in 5 years we may be very relieved. Personally I think his catching ability is impressive … for a RB. His running ability is much better, but I actually think Goodson is a better catching prospect having gone back and watched film. Context is needed. This Bijan hype has got out of hand and proportion.

-1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:50 am

I don't think Goodson is a better catching prospect than Robinson. Maybe Goodson has caught more balls, but he doesn't even sniff Robinson's ability after the pass is in his hands.

It's draft season, CW! Hype and out of proportion is the norm! :-)

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:04 am

I disagree about Goodson. Go back and watch him in the slot and lined up outside in college. Remarkable for a back. How good he is as a runner is open to question.

Yes this is the season for crazy and crushes. Since I don’t let myself have “must haves” but rather a group of options till round 6 or 7, I’m usually not one to get quite so stoked. If this was 2020, I’d take a flyer on Bijan being that good, but where we are now, if he drops, the best thing I see is someone overpaying to take him and us getting a bigger haul of talent overall.

0 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:49 am

Goodson is a better RB receiving prospect than Robinson? Not from what I see on video.

And as a runner, not many in this draft class do it better than Robinson.

I don't think he will be a Packer. But he is going to be a fun player to watch next season.

Drafting Robinson is likely a moot point anyway, since Gutey is going to trade down and get more selections. I hope he does.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:31 pm

Not as a runner, no. But as a catcher, I think arguably. I don’t know how good a runner Goodson can be at this level. He flashed in camp, but not enough opportunities to really go on. I think good enough to be a pass/run threat though, especially out of 2 back sets. Needed to work on his pass pro, but so would Bijan. The real point of bringing this is was to try and bring in some context.

-1 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:55 am

True. He's one twisted ankle away from being mediocre. Roschon could be a beast with less wear on his tread and may be available in the 4th round. We all know it's a crap shoot anyway. No sure things. 50/50 at best.

Just think how the NFL could be different if Mini hadn't traded for Hershel Walker. Or the Saints hadn't traded their whole draft for Ricky Williams? Or SF had drafted Love instead of trading away 3 first round picks for Trey Lance?

1 points
2
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:30 pm

A lot of RB talent rounds 3-5, even Hunter Leupke for an Alstott guy.

1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:03 pm

But think of the fun we would have watching him for 5 years! :)

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:14 pm

I am a Hawkeye fan so I got to see Goodson alot. He is a talented RB but is tiny compared to Bijan. Goodson succeeded at Iowa even when they had bad O-lines. I don't think you could have Tyler run the ball 20 times a game, but he could be used the same way the Packers have underused Jones. And Goodson would not protect the QB from blitzes either. Goodson is not Bijan though.

2 points
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ggthawkeye's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:39 am

Maybe I’ve missed it, but has anyone suggested the reason we want a first rounder in 24’ for 12? Pretty obvious that Gute wants to have 2 first round picks in 24’ to move up in the top 3 for our next franchise QB should Love suck. If Love turns out to be THE GUY, then we can really fill holes next year. This team isn’t contending this year and I’m good with that. One, maybe 2 years of mediocrity is nothing if it’s followed by another 15 year run of SB contention. I was a kid in the 60s. I remember the pathetic teams we rolled out from 72’ to 92’. Be patient with this mini rebuild. It will be worth it my friends.

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:25 pm

For a QB of Rodgers talent level I would expect first round picks back. If he committed to playing 3 years. Even more if he was younger. Arron Rodgers is still very talented and I have no doubt, if he doesn't get hurt, will play really well for the Jets, They should close the deal. He is worth what we are asking for, at least.

1 points
2
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:39 pm

If Jordan Love sucks, Gutey goes bye-bye. Thems the Rules.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:45 pm

They will fire MLF first.
Then comes the return of the 80s.

0 points
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1
ReaganRulz's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:40 am

Has an article been written yet to map out what the Packer’s should/could receive for Rodger’s if the deal is NOT done before the draft? I don’t think I’ve seen one. This article by Mark is more around draft needs, but I just wonder how a delayed Packer-Jets deal would impact the filling of our needs and what we should expect from the Jets in 2024+. Thoughts?

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:16 am

Whatever a team is willing to pay that Rodgers will not retire to avoid. That could be nothing and a post June 1 cut. Rodgers knows he’s getting money regardless and he knows we can’t afford to have him on the roster for game 1 unless he’s our stater of choice because of what that triggers. He may well prefer being a FA, pocket the money he’s already guaranteed and chose his own destiny.

After the draft, the best we can get is a future first rounder, typically viewed as a second round equivalent this year. Things may change in draft day. Especially if the Jets like Stroud or Richardson (they will regret that) and see him dropping to them. In the other hand, another team may miss out and start to get desperate. Murphy supposedly blocked the trade Gute proposed as not rich enough. Let’s see if that pays off.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:01 pm

"Murphy supposedly blocked the trade Gute proposed as not rich enough. Let’s see if that pays off."

I look forward to the day when we know what actually happened last year when the Denver Gold option was replaced by a the Dumb Deal to sooth Rodgers. And what actually happened during this recent episode of Mark Murphy, Acting GM.

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:13 pm

The sad fact is, however this works out, that’s going to be a millstone around our necks till the second half of this decade. Murphy can’t hide that. Just an utterly indefensible deal, even if one thought that one should be made.

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:36 pm

I don't think Rodgers really wants to walk away yet. Most pro athletes don't know when to retire. I think he has been "playing" the Packers for some time. To get everything he wants.
The bottom line is he is still a top 5 QB when healthy and he is motivated to play well because the Packers looked down on him and he is pissed. Hell the Jets might get a super bowl out of him. Good for them if they do.
If Rodgers was as smart as everyone says he is, and if the trade capitol was right for us, he would be much better off going to San Francisco. He could win 2 Super Bowls with the Niners with the talent they have.

Maybe we should take six 3rd round picks, 3 this year and 3 next year, and move him there. If nothing else the Jets might have to up their offer above what we are asking for now.

1 points
1
0
HarryHodag's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:12 am

Need first this year. The Packers don't have the flexibility to sign a veteran to fill a gap. There is one safety who could start right away and should be taken if around at 15.

Safety-Brian Branch.

In the second round, assuming only one pick, tight end-assuming Mayer is gone, Kincaid or Washington. Both could start right away. Another second round pick, if the Packers get it, could be Mazi Smith from Michigan, a massive defensive tackle.

Third round-wide receiver or edge rusher-R. Rice(WR), D. Hall-(Edge). Both could see action right away.

Three rounds of needs, but all are players that will see significant time if selected.

This is a good year to restock the cupboard.

-6 points
2
8
Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:33 am

Branch is slower than Micah Hyde and Hyde had plenty of game experience and had demonstrated phenomenal instincts at an NFL level before he moved to S. It’s a brave claim to say Branch has that level of instinct and savvy, particularly as a rookie. If he doesn’t, he could easily be a bust unless his testing was just an anomaly. I note I’ve not seen that seriously argued though.

There are in fact other safeties that could help, even perhaps start. Jammie Robinson is a guy rather like Branch in terms of athleticism but with instincts and a lot of consistent performance that we could pick up in the mid rounds. He’s a very good tackler, which means I prefer him to Battle, but Battle is a promising cover guy. Sydney Brown is an athlete, but the question with him is coverage skills. These improved in his last year, but are they ever going to be good enough to unlock his athleticism?

There are others out there too. There is no perfect plus athlete, there are, I think, close to as good Branch alternatives at a lot less cost and therefore risk. A fee of whom, like Robinson or Battle may well be able to start early.

1 points
2
1
HarryHodag's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:52 pm

Every draft board I've read has Branch far above Robinson.

If the job was merely speed all you need to do is hire the world's fastest person and put pads on them.

Branch led one of the nation's best defenses for many, many games. Saban teaches his players to play pro ball. Robinson is not in the same draft status. After Branch the list is covered by 'lower round guys'.

Sorry.

0 points
1
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:18 pm

Branch is far above Robinson due to profile. That’s why Robinson would be a better value pick for a similar athlete with a lower profile major college team, Florida State. I picked him as an example of a similar guy athletically with great college stats whom one could get later in the draft. Branch ran 2 times at the combine, 4.58 and 4.61. He’s really nudging 4.6 on average, which is the best measure. That’s glacial. Robinson has the same issue: 5:59 and 4.60.

Branch was thought to be the best pick at the position. Until he tested, that is. That lack of athleticism can take a player from all world to STer absent stupendous instincts. Micah Hyde was faster and he still had to beat the odds with tremendous anticipation and instinct. He wasn’t a rookie either. Want to bet a first rounder on that? I don’t.

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:44 pm

They both get a neither guy grade.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:44 pm

So we should pick Branch, who most people who have evaluated the 2023 Safety class say is not the right fit for GB, with the very valuable #15 pick. And ignore the fact that we could get a better fit for us, bigger, faster, Safety in the 3rd round when they come off the board. And pass up drafting the absolute top TE in this draft who will be a game changer for the Packers. Plus pushing Edge and DT down in the draft where the pickings will be slimmer.
Not to mention pass up trading back for more picks to fill more holes.
Doesn't sound like the right moves to me.

1 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:17 am

Not worried about safety - Ford, Savage, Moore, Leavitt, Wiggins, Carpenter are sufficient for now.

First 3 rounds should be reserved for other positions as discussed below.

I am hoping Brian and Ball and Murphy COME TO THEIR SENSES AND TRADE JORDAN LOVE and keep Rodgers and draft QB Hendon Hooker out of Tennessee.

Hooker will probably go in the 1st or 2nd round so Packers will have to come up with a 2nd 1st round pick in a trade - hopefully Love is worth a 1st in a trade - if we also wish to fill any one of our Receiver, Tight End and Edge Rusher needs in the first round.

Given Jordan Love:

1) is considered a franchise quarterback that will over he next 15 years lead the Packers to more than Rodgers 11 playoff years and win more Super Bowls for the Packers than Rodgers or Favre and that this is widely believed among the 31 other NFL General Managers and their scouts and analysts,

and

2) the Bears just received 2 first round picks, 2 second round picks, and a young wide receiver from the Panthers for the right to draft a QB (be it Young, Stroud, Levis or Richardson) that has never played in the NFL and is as likely to be Ryan Leaf as Peyton Manning

Jordan Love should be worth at least 1 draft pick - a 1st or 2nd rounder - at the very least, maybe even matching what the Bears got for their overall 1st pick.

Love should return that much value, unless it is only the Packer Management Sycophants and posters on this Cheese Head TV website that are paid to post Packer Management Propaganda/"Public Relations": that believe Jordan is a Franchise QB.

Also hoping the Packers draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio State, wide receiver, 1st round), Darnell Washington (Georgia tight end, hopefully he is still around by pick #45), Tuli Tuipulotu (USC, edge rusher|linebacker/defensive end, hopefully he is still around come the Packers 3rd pick, which is the 78th pick overall).

Beyond those picks, the Packers will probably pick the best player available, regardless of position, but the Packers probably most need:

1) an agile and excellent route running along the lines of Davante Adams that get open on short and intermediate routes to the sideline and over the middle and can keep the chains moving - Smith-Njigba (NFL Combine results on 3 Cone and 20 yard Shuttle were the fastest of any player at the NFL combine this year and the 20 yard shuttle was the fastest for a receiver since 2007 and 3 Cone drill time the 12th fastest for a receiver since 2007 and better than Davante's times in those and the 40 yard dash) would fit that

2) other wide receivers (vet or rookies) for the receiver room,

3) a couple tight ends (vet or rookies, Washington would fill one of those),

4) a pass rusher (especially if Rashan Gary is not recovered from his ACL - Tuli would fit that need),

5) a run stopping linebacker or defensive tackle,

and

6) a center as Josh Myers, 2nd round choice from 2021, has not played well and is responsible for a good part of our failures in the red zone and running plays up the middle.

PACKERS HAVE THE 4TH MOST CAP SPACE - OUT OF 32 TEAMS - WITH $22.4 M and can make another $8M available by converting game day active and workout bonuses to signing bonuses.

I am hoping the Packers resign Randall Cobb (wide receiver), Mercedes Lewis (tight end) and Mason Crosby - our kicker.

Ball and Brian should have immediately resigned Lazard (Jet cap hit $3.2M) and Tonyan (Bear cap hit $2.6 M) at the opening of the 2023 year on March 13th - in fact, as with Davante Adams and MVS in the spring and summer of 2021, these contracts should have been resolved in the spring & early summer of 2022

Lewis and Cobb, should have been signed right at the start of free agency in March 2023.

Jarran Reed (important play maker for Packers last year and run stopper - Seahawks $3M cap hit) and Kyrs Barnes (among the Packer best tacklers - Arizona $1M cap hit) should have been resigned too.

Getting cheap and replacing Lazard, Tonyan, Lewis, Cobb, Reed, and Barnes - as low as their salary cap hits would be - with $750,000 7th round draft picks and undrafted rookies is going to mean much poorer performance by players who will be out of the league within a year or two.

Don't have a problem with Lowry and Amos being let go. though would not be surprised if Packers sign Amos again for some minimum if no one picks him up.

More on JSN here:

PFF's Renner: Smith-Njigba's 3-cone and shuttle-drill times stood out at '23 combine
PFF's Renner: Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 3-cone and shuttle-drill times stood out at '23 combine

-7 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:10 pm

Just about wrong in every assumption and conclusion—for the 30th time—it gets no better. Just no, in almost every regard. That would normally be fine—we are all wrong often and entitled to opinions both sound and unsound, however you have far surpassed the norm.

I’m not even going to get into the detail. Save to say that despite having the laughable hubris to cite yourself as correcting TGR, you still haven’t grasped the significance of the lack of cap in real terms given our existing obligations and obviously don’t understand how signing bonus conversions affect the cap hit and when at all.

None of us here are professionals and no professionals get it right in the draft more than about 30-40 percent of the time, usually less. However, you could be the armchair Matt Millen for the ages. That would be ok, but for a guy who has perhaps the least knowledge of football I recall posting here regularly and never seems to learn anything from any article or post here, or even to understand much he seeks to drown in verbiage, it’s not.

You certainly have the greatest love of subjecting others to miles of irrelevant, misrepresented, misconstrued or cherry picked and not once but endlessly, multiple times in multiple combinations and posts with some random top and tail if we are lucky. You do it within posts and repeat it from day-to-day, week-to-week, as with most of this one. Hell, you will post exactly the same point hours later. Stop.

You are a troll and it’s reached the point of being really tiresome as well as detrimental to the point of being here.

0 points
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CheesedDeadHead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:40 pm

Maybe CHTV could put in a warning at the beginning of STR's posts that you might end up dumber after reading the post than before. That's exactly how I feel when I venture into the dark abyss of a STR post...

2 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:35 pm

Russian writers fresh out of the gulags are less meandering!

-1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:32 pm

You should seriously think about taking some time away from this site to write a book. Maybe more people would read it.

-1 points
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HarryHodag's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:56 pm

Not worried about safety. Invalidates all further analysis. BOMBS AWAY!

Resign Lewis(ancient), Cobb(ineffective) Crosby(slowly fading) Great thoughts there. Bring back more fading stars with money they don't have to be mediocre.

Please stop putting out the nonsense about the 4th most cap space. As soon as the Aaron Rodgers trade goes through they will be lucky to have enough money to sign the draft picks. Or did your 'analysis' forget that?

Gee, you'd think no one has thought of all the great 'ideas' you have.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:32 am

If you don’t draft for what you need, how are you supposed to get what you need?

9 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:32 am

“You can't always get what you want,
But if you try sometimes, well, you might find,
You get what you need.”

Richards/Jagger

-2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:58 am

The Prophets spoke truly. Much wisdom in Rock Scripture.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:35 pm

Just popped straight in the old noggin when I read your post.

0 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:33 am

AZ has a Safety that wants to play elsewhere (B. Baker). How about Savage and a #2 or 3 pick and go get BPA now.

0 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:57 pm

Cap, or the lack of it, and also Savage’s option is locked and guaranteed. It can’t be reduced now even by the acquiring team.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:37 pm

You can't be that obtuse. If you reach for need you leave a better player for the next team. It's a good way to end up drafting in the top 10. Every year.

3 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:32 pm

Why do you have to reach? Why can't you decide, for example, that you want to get Awesome Jones, a WR out of Enormous State. You've watched the film, talked to his coaches, teammates, etc. You put him on the board as being somewhere between 60 and 75, and when your draft pick comes at 45, if you take him, THAT is reaching. But you could trade down and end up with a pick around 66, and you've gotten the guy that you want without reaching.

So no, Chesty, I'm not advocating reaching. Those are your words, not mine. You shouldn't speculate on how obtuse I could be.......glass houses and all.

1 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:16 pm

We have been drafting in the late 20's for the most part. There are VERY FEW players I was ever looking forward to landing there. You need Pro Bowl and even All Pro players at multiple levels of the team on offense and defense. Damn few will ascend from the late 20's, in round 1. Staying put and picking up a player that "MIGHT BE"
better than someone you already have sounds like a bad move and help little as the need still exists. Moving UP and getting best player at his position sounds much better. Credit cards have ensured we never have to settle for mediocrity. Draft picks are the same way, and that's why we can swap them or use them as credit for draft position as well as players on the team to be traded. I could not care less what any other teams do other than jumping my pick for the player I wanted but was too cheap to pay the price for.

1 points
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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:55 pm

The problem with that theory is that the NFL salary cap really works. Teams can't afford to have 10 really highly paid players on their team. Or 5 players that account for 30% of your cap. A big % of your team has to be minimum and entry level players or you can't stay under the cap. You can keep redoing contracts and pushing $$ back, but it catches up to you and you are screwed, like we are.

Plus trading up in the first round increases the $$ you are paying that prospect. We would be better off getting #42 & #43 instead of #13 from the Jets because of that.

0 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:49 pm

Or highest paid QB/ LT/CB and wanna be WR.

0 points
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GregC's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:59 pm

You can still get what you need, it just takes 2-3 years, with the caveat that you never draft purely for need anyway, e.g., if the BPA is a position where you really don't need anyone, you take the BPA for a different position.

0 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:41 pm

Teams set up their boards based on what they need, so when you say BPA, that really means the guy who is BPA on your board, and that there's almost certainly somebody who will be taken after him who will have a better carreer. So you're rarely ever getting the BPA. When we took Rodgers, he was obviously the BPA on the board.

You also have to decide what your goal is in the draft. Obviously, you want to improve your team at 7 spots....but where do you NEED to improve to compete in your division? In our division, we have the best defense but the third rated offense.

Change QB
Return six veteran starters on the Oline and add to that.
Add a quality weapon or two. We have some supplemental weapons, but we could use a guy like Watson or Jones who could score 10 TDs or more and demands attention from the defense.

-2 points
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GregC's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:10 pm

If it's true that teams set up their boards based on what they need, then of course you are correct that they draft based on need. Maybe we are just interpreting the word "need" differently in this case. I think of "drafting for need" as drafting players who are needed right now, i.e., next season. And I think of BPA as a more long-term approach. Obviously you are not going to select a player who you won't need eventually.

Maybe the draft needs to happen so we can stop debating stuff like this. Only five more days to go!

0 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:34 am

I would not be upset if the Packers drafted TE Darnell Washington or Dalton Kincaid with the 15th pick.

Here below is a list of every tight end the Packers have ever drafted.

The 3rd column "No." tells us how many tight ends were taken in the draft before the Packers chose our tight end. For instance in 1963 John Mackey (Colts) and Jackie Smith (Cardinals) were taken before Marv Fleming.
The 4th column is the round picked - 11th in the case of Marv Fleming, the 5th column "Pick" is the number of the pick within the round - Fleming was the 14th pick in the 11th round, the 6th column "Player" is the overall total pick - Marv Fleming was the 154th pick of the 1963 draft.

# Year No. Round Pick Player Name Team College
1 1963 3 11 14 154 Marv Fleming Packers Utah
2 1967 13 9 25 236 Harlan Reed Packers Mississippi State
3 1967 20 17 25 444 Jeff Elias Packers Kansas
4 1969 10 6 4 134 Ron Jones Packers Texas-El Paso
5 1969 19 12 12 298 Tom Buckman Packers Texas A&M
6 1970 2 1 16 16 Rich McGeorge Packers Elon
7 1970 11 10 17 251 Frank Patrick Packers Nebraska
8 1971 23 15 10 374 Leonard Garrett Packers New Mexico Highlands
9 1973 22 16 21 411 Keith Pretty Packers Western Michigan
10 1975 18 14 10 348 Stan Blackmon Packers North Texas State
11 1976 22 17 8 467 Ray Hall Packers Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo
12 1978 20 12 6 312 Eason Ramson Packers Washington State
13 1979 15 9 15 235 John Thompson Packers Utah State
14 1981 3 2 7 35 Gary Lewis Packers Texas-Arlington
15 1985 7 6 15 155 Mark Lewis Packers Texas A&M
16 1988 16 9 7 228 Neal Wilkinson Packers James Madison
17 1990 4 4 21 102 Jackie Harris Packers N.E. Louisiana
18 1991 15 10 12 262 Rapier Porter Packers Arkansas-Pine Bluff
19 1992 10 6 17 157 Mark Chmura Packers Boston College
20 2000 1 1 14 14 Bubba Franks Packers Miami (FL)
21 2007 12 7 33 243 Clark Harris Packers Rutgers
22 2008 7 3 28 91 Jermichael Finley Packers Texas
23 2010 11 5 23 154 Andrew Quarless Packers Penn State
24 2011 7 5 10 141 D.J. Williams Packers Arkansas
25 2011 12 7 15 218 Ryan Taylor Packers North Carolina
26 2014 6 3 34 98 Richard Rodgers Packers California
27 2015 15 6 37 213 Kennard Backman Packers Alabama-Birmingham
28 2019 6 3 11 75 Jace Sternberger Packers Texas A&M
29 2020 3 3 30 94 Josiah Deguara Packers Cincinnati

-10 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:23 am

I gave you a 👍, but you should have stopped after the first sentence.

1 points
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CheesedDeadHead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:41 pm

I disagree, STR should have stopped before clicking on the "+ Reply".

1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:24 pm

LOL

1 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:04 pm

Washington is my TE1 but i would trade down 5-10 spots and we could probably get him, too. Kincaid is not a TE, and I would not even consider drafting him at 15. He is a glorified slot WR. If we draft him considering him as a WR I would be fine with that, but we also need a true TE too. There is no way he will hold up blocking in the NFL

1 points
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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:13 pm

Marv Fleming - 16- 0 Dolphins.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:56 pm

Point being ? He was primarily a blocking TE. When the Rules let teams run the ball. Those days are over. They didn't want to pay him either and who would you choose to play for, Dan Devine or Don Shula? My number two rated coach, behind Lombardi.

1 points
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:52 am

Below are the 12 tight ends that were drafted in 2020 before and after our Josiah Deguara and our now Tyler Davis.

The Columns are round, pick #, team, player name, Years a Starter (ST.), Games played, Receptions, Yards,, Touchdowns and College.

Rnd Pick Tm Player St G Rec Yds TD College/Univ
2 43 CHI Cole Kmet 3 50 138 1399 9 Notre Dame
3 91 NWE Devin Asiasi 0 22 4 44 1 UCLA
3 94 GNB Josiah Deguara 0 35 39 371 2 Cincinnati
3 101 NWE Dalton Keene 0 6 3 16 0 Virginia Tech
3 105 NOR Adam Trautman 1 43 60 641 4 Dayton
4 115 CLE Harrison Bryant 2 48 76 710 7 Florida Atlantic
4 118 DEN Albert Okwuegbunam 0 26 54 546 4 Missouri
4 133 SEA Colby Parkinson 0 37 32 371 2 Stanford
4 136 LAR Brycen Hopkins 0 24 8 118 0 Purdue
6 190 SFO Charlie Woerner 0 48 8 88 0 Georgia
6 206 JAX Tyler Davis 0 39 8 61 0 Georgia Tech
7 251 SEA Stephen Sullivan 0 18 2 46 0 LSU

-8 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:53 am

My requisite comment about “drafting for need.”
Shortly before he retired, Ron Wolf was on a pre-draft talk show and said this (paraphrased):
We draft the player who is most going to improve our roster—the best player available for US. The art of drafting is weighing which need is greater compared to which player is better.

3 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:12 am

But remember, the “best player for us” can also mean more than one thing. The best player for this season, the best player for the future or simply a guy that we think is better by a sufficient distance that we can’t overlook him regardless of need. This is especially true when uttered by a GM who has to have a multi year approach to roster construction.

1 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:46 am

Absolutely!

-1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:24 am

Right!
You do not pass on Michael Jordan just because you don’t “need” a guard!!

4 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:57 am

The Packers should determine which positions to heavily draft with these three factors:
1. What are our largest needs?
2. What is the strength of the draft class?
3. What positions have the most value?

Using these criteria, I would say that the Packers should prioritize TE and edge rusher in the draft.

5 points
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dobber's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:02 am

I think the draft is a very fluid thing, and the best GMs see opportunities--both expected and not--and adjust to make the most of them.

3 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:56 am

. Our biggest need is to score more points on offense. We had way too many drives that didn't result in points last year. We need 2 guys who are dangerous with the ball in their hands, like Watson and Jones.

Additionally, we lost games last year where we didn't have a real good looking offensive line. I'm referring to that stretch where Jenkins was playing RT on a rehabbed leg and Newman and Hanson were on the field. I've repeatedly pointed out that right now, Newman is our #7 OL and could very easily end up in the starting lineup when we start taking injuries. And we're dressing two guys who are under Newman.

Get two weapons and an OL on the first two days, and start Day 3 with a TE. That's 4 out of the 19 non-QBs we dress on offense.

The key to this draft for the Packers, IMO, is getting the right two weapons. When you look at the board, the weapons at #15 would be JSN, Johnston, perhaps BIjan, Gibbs, and the TEs. I can get a solid TE later, but these guys like JSN, Johnston, and Bijan are only found early in the draft.

I've come to the conclusion that if Bijan is available, we should take him. If not, one of those WRs. Then try to get a starting OT at #45.

0 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:51 am

Talking some sense LH. Jones is a Weapon...Dillon is a hammer...when he does not hesitate. You're right either RB would be great and I'm not opposed to both since jones is getting older and Dillon we could trade in his last season for a pick or player. I'm not as high on Johnston. I like JSN / Hyatt / Tillman / Mingo / Rice / Kincaid / Washington / Mayer / LaPorta. Any 2 of these TE's / WR's / RB 1 or the other or both : )

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:23 pm

JSN looks very like Adams. He’s a guy who wins in the same way. He also has similar drop issues to early Davante. Whether JSN is as elite in gaining separation as Adams, who also demonstrated plus anticipation skills after a year or two, remains to be seen. However, Adams ran the 40 in 4.47 at the Combine. JSN timed 4.48-4.52 on his pro day. Typically pro day times are a little more generous. Since the timing range is usually split in the middle, and 0.2 added to compensate versus the combine, that’s 4.47 versus 4.52.

Adams had enough speed to capitalize on separation enough to become far more than just a possession guy, but not by all that much. I’m not convinced JSN has enough even if he can match Adams ability to read defenses and his short area skills (which the metrics do suggest he can). I wouldn’t take him in round one. He’s a second rounder in most years and that’s where he belongs.

I also wouldn’t take him for an Unrelated reason: he’s essentially a Doubs with less long speed. We need other positions and WR types too much to double up like that. Too similar. Hyatt too is a pure slot. I’d rather run with Toure, Melton and maybe Goodson, knowing Doubs will play there and possibly Watson at times.

Other than those quibbles, a pretty good list.,

-1 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:42 pm

Cedric Tillman is the WR I would target in round 2. I like him more as a fit than JSN. He fills Lazard's role of a big blocker but has more speed and is a deep threat, too. Reminds me somewhat of Corey Davis

2 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:16 pm

JSN outplayed last drafts ROY. He gets open. Love needs some of that in the middle. The Slot gives him free releases and he is the quickest WR in the draft off the line. He's a good fit. Hyatt I believe runs in the 4.2's or 4.3's
on film. Football is not played in a sprinters stance and he gets up to speed fast. Film says he's faster than most DB's, although that offense scared the hell out of everyone and a lot of blown coverage. Hyatt is a little light but 6'. He could put on 10 lbs. with that much speed to burn. This is not a strong 1st RD for WR's...But a lot of 2nd tier talent waiting to bud in the NFL with a little time and Coaching. Same with the TE class.

-1 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:58 pm

I agree with you on Johnston. Tillman is my favorite WR in the draft, and Mingo and Rice are not far behind. Hyatt is too small, period. We already have Bo Melton, who is essentially the same style of receiver Hyatt is. Besides, our greatest need isn't a slot WR, but an outside WR who can fill Lazard's blocker role and provide more of a deep threat. Tillman fits that bill perfectly,

Add Tucker Kraft to your list of TEs. I really like him out of SDSU, and he is an exceptional athlete who I think has the potential to develop into the best in the draft class, and is a great blocker. Love Washington too; he is my TE1. Mayer, to me, has the highest floor of anyone in this class but also the lowest ceiling. I don't think he will be a Kelce/Gronk caliber TE. I don't know if he is worth a first-rounder. Who knows? Also Kincaid is not a true TE. He is just a big slot WR. If we draft him to be a WR I would like the pick, but he is not a TE. He won't be able to hold up blocking in the pros.

Also, NO NO NO to Bijan Robinson in the first round!! If he falls to the second I think he could be a good value pick, but NOT in the first. We have so many other needs, and with such strong classes at TE and edge rusher, we can't afford to waste a first rounder on a RB who would be no. 3 on the depth chart this season.

Also, I will eat my shirt if the Packers trade or don't re-sign AJ Dillon. They have liked him since high school, and love him now (and so do I).

1 points
1
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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:51 am

PackyCheese 500: "I agree with you on Johnston. Tillman is my favorite WR in the draft, and Mingo and Rice are not far behind. Hyatt is too small, period. We already have Bo Melton, who is essentially the same style of receiver Hyatt is. Besides, our greatest need isn't a slot WR, but an outside WR who can fill Lazard's blocker role and provide more of a deep threat. Tillman fits that bill perfectly,

Add Tucker Kraft to your list of TEs. I really like him out of SDSU, and he is an exceptional athlete who I think has the potential to develop into the best in the draft class, and is a great blocker. Love Washington too; he is my TE1. Mayer, to me, has the highest floor of anyone in this class but also the lowest ceiling. I don't think he will be a Kelce/Gronk caliber TE. I don't know if he is worth a first-rounder. Who knows? Also Kincaid is not a true TE. He is just a big slot WR. If we draft him to be a WR I would like the pick, but he is not a TE. He won't be able to hold up blocking in the pros.

Also, NO NO NO to Bijan Robinson in the first round!! If he falls to the second I think he could be a good value pick, but NOT in the first."

PackyCheese500:

Specifically, what are your primary sources of information for reaching your conclusions on individual players and where they rank in terms of the most valuable football player for each position (i.e. QB, RB, FB, TE, G, T, C, DE/Edge, DT, LB, S, CB, K, P)?

You seem to be pretty deep into the analysis and I am sure everyone would find your sources valuable.

Personally, I only find value in:

1) My OwN EYES - watching the college players play college games.

2) Qualifying what I see by what level of competition the particular player is facing.

3) My OWN EYES - watching the college players at the NFL combine and Pro Days.

4) Evaluating individual College statistics, again adjusting for level of competition.

5) Evaluating the NFL Combine and Pro Day measurements and results..

The objective of the 31 Billionaire Parasite NFL Owners who control the teams and these various NFL media sites and the paid wage slaves and talking heads who spew out these mock drafts is to MAXIMIZE REVENUE and NOT NECESSARILY TO PROVIDE TRUTH or any value. The entrance of "profit" corrupts any offering. Consequently, I find little value in the mock draft writeup pass arounds of Todd McShay ESPN, Dane Brugler (the Athletic), Vinni Iyer Sporting News, Mel Kiper,, Daniel Jeremiah, etc. etc. I mean, I will read them, but 1 through 5 I find more dependable than what is being written up and talked about by these paid talking heads and dramatists, some who peddle hysteria and gossip and rumors with "unnamed sources". .

-1 points
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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:52 pm

The Lions had a top 5 offense for the first 7 weeks of the season. They went 1-6. Why? Because their defense was bad. Their defense turned it around in week 8 and for the rest of the season, and they went 8-2. I have already said this many times, but complimentary football wins games. Offense AND Defense (and Special Teams).

I agree that pass catchers (WR and TE) should be the focus on day 2, but I believe our 1st-round pick would best be spent on a premium edge rusher. It is the best position group in the draft class and it is also a major need of ours. We need to take advantage at the top of a strong edge group and get a true difference-maker. Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith, and Myles Murphy are my favorite guys.

Why would we draft Bijan Robinson? How would he get any playing time behind Jones and Dillon? You don't draft somebody in round 1 so they can be your 3rd-string RB! Plus, we already have Goodson, who I think will be a great replacement for Aaron Jones if he leaves next season. RBs are a dime a dozen, and almost all other positions have more value.
A good example is Saquon Barkley. How much did he help the Giants win from 2018-2021? They didn't even make the playoffs or come close to a winning record. Do you think, if the Giants could re-do that draft, they would draft Barkley over someone like Josh Allen, Quenton Nelson, or Lamar Jackson?

Also, we do not need a starting OT this year. We have Bakhtiari (who, for cap reasons, isn't going anywhere), Tom, and Nijman, plus Caleb Jones and Rasheed Walker as our backups. IMO if Nijman and Bakhtiari are gone next year we can just draft an OT next year. Next year's OT class is looking to be very, very strong. This year's OT class is okay, but when you look at the extremely high demand for OTs coupled with the limited supply, the fact is that there are going to be OTs who are overdrafted. I do not want to overdraft an OT in a middling class when there will be an excellent one next year.

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greengold's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:12 pm

Try this one on for size:

13 WR Quentin Johnston
15 OG O’Cyrus Torrence
42 TE Darnell Washington
43 EDGE Isaiah Foskey
45 CB DJ Turner
78 DT Gervon Dexter
112 S Jammie Robinson
116 DT Karl Brooks
143 TE Cameron Latu
149 OT Carter Warren
170 OT Warren McClendon
207 WR Matt Landers
232 WR Justin Shorter
235 DT Cameron Young
242 TE Mason Fairchild
256 S Quindell Johnson

1. No way AR goes without Bak, who gets traded after June 1st for a 2024 R1.

2. No way AR goes without bringing along other tradable OL he trusts to protect him.

3. Runyan, Myers, Hanson & Newman + AR for NYJ’s 2023 draft.

No one acknowledges the sheer stupidity of AR agreeing to be traded to the Jets and their #32 ranked OL. It’s been a gigantic blind spot here. Why?

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:08 pm

Agree but when & where do you draft them is important and until you know how the draft is playing out it is a little bit of a crap shoot until deep in the draft. Having a plan A, plan B, and plan C with contingencies is important!

This NFC Scout I had over to the house last weekend stated...."their team drafted BPA in the early rounds even if not at their biggest position of need. Just draft the best player on the board! Starting somewhere mid-round they switch to "drafting the BPA at their biggest needs because it is a crap shoot at that point". I think this approach makes a lot of sense at least for round 1, or possibly round 2.

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:54 pm

I still think Bijan would be a terrible pick in round 1, if that is what you are hinting at.

Edit: I know the draft can be a bit crapshoot-ish, but what I would do is I would not be afraid to use our 3rd rounder as a trade token to move up if necessary. Whether that is moving up in the first for an edge rusher like Lukas Van Ness, Nolan Smith, or Myles Murphy (even thought at least one of them will almost certainly be available at #15) or using it to move up in the second (or back into the first) for a TE like Darnell Washington or a WR like Cedric Tillman.

In terms of TEs, Tucker Kraft, Washington, and Sam LaPorta are my favorite in the draft, in that order, and Kraft and LaPorta will both almost certainly be available at pick 42, 43, or 45. Jonathan Mingo and Rashee Rice are also great guys we can take if we miss out on Tillman.

Of course, if the best WRs/TEs/edge rushers are off the board and there is still an insanely good player at, let’s say DT or S, then we should take them.

But we would not take a kicker in the first round. This is also the reason why we will not take a RB in the first round. The positional value is low in comparison to other positions, and there are quality options available in the later rounds on day 3. In fact, I would say Kicker is a bigger need than RB!

As long as Gutey has a plan (and, based on the Pre draft visits, it seems that he is prioritizing edge rusher and TE), then we should be set. I trust him.

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:05 pm

It won't be. The problem is you're do or die on the TEs.
And this class is Deep in TES.
So let me show you how Robinson Works.
Replaces both Dillion and jones. Per injury.

!. Robinson.
2. Foskey /edge/OT
3. Tillman WR/ Safety
4. Robinson / Te-
5. Te /Wr

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:44 pm

What happened to “edge rusher is the strength of the class?”

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:34 pm

Nolan Smith should be if Robinson is Gone.
Some say Murphy.
But the comment was about Robinson

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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:39 pm

We have two starting edges. Gary will be ready when the season starts.

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:49 pm

Gary will not be ready until halloween if he is rushed. It would be better for him to sit out the season if he needs it, or err on the side of caution.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:10 pm

Tillman will be in the 28-35 range. Teams watch a guys's entire career, not just the highlight reels from '22. If they grab Bijan, I agree Dillon would need to be an in-draft trade. He has plateaued. A.Jones was the over-pay with his second Contract. Not a proactive move, and P.Smith has to cover for Gary's injury. I still want two Edge guys selected. Barry doesn't use his DTs correctly to begin with. Montgomery seems to be onboard for his paycheck. He was yapping about a stunt scheme.Where is it?

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 09:50 pm

idk, from the mocks I have seen Tillman is going in the 40s. Maybe we trade up a couple of spots for him?

Barry mis-used Lowry last year, and on top of that, had him play over the clearly better Wyatt. Agree about the DTs

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:40 am

Tillman was really a one year player. It’s hard to know how different teams value that.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:56 pm

Packy,
We are in agreement about Tucker Kraft, and Sam LaPorta. Because of them being available in late rd 2 & into round 3 I just don't see the need to necessarily draft a TE high. This philosophy has changed for me as I was a big proponent of drafting a TE early, however the more I look at some of the TE's like these two and others I'm thinking the Pack can focus early on big bodies on either side of the line, as well as WR's.

The one thing I don't agree with is you mentioning the Packers possibly using our 3rd round as a trade token to move around in either round 1, or round 2 for Van Ness, Nolan Smith, or Myles Murphy. All these guys are very good, but I like these guys in round 2 just as much.....Felix Anudike - Uzomah, BJ Ojulari, and Will McDonald. Plus, there are other Edge rushers in round 2 I like such as Keion White, and Adetomiwa Adebawore. I would prefer to save the round 3 pick for possibly a Safety, or maybe a WR like Jonathan Mingo, or a TE like Sam LaPorta. That 3rd round pick will be very important. After round 3 the Safety talent seems to fall way off.

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:02 pm

KTSOY,
The reason I recommend trading our 3rd-round pick is twofold and simple: It helps us secure better talent, and we would just use our 3rd-round pick on another bust anyway.

TBH I like some of the round 2 guys as well and would be happy with them, but their ceilings are lower and they have more major flaws to their game. I am confident that Van Ness, Smith, and Murphy (a bit less so about Murphy) can all add pass-rush moves to their arsenal. If they do that, they will be beasts in the NFL.

With McDonald, I don't know if he has the power to consistently win in the NFL, and his run defense has been terrible. FAU is my favorite of the ones you mentioned, but I don't know if his skills will have the same impact in the NFL as they did in college. He was average in creating pressure per snap (as opposed to Van Ness, who was #1 in this category. Smith would have been had he played the whole season. See here: https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/nfl-draft-super-six-packers-prospect...

Keion White is an older prospect with an injury history, who I genuinely think the risks are too big as opposed to someone like Van Ness or Smith. Adetomiwa would be interesting, although he is a bit of a positional tweener. I would be fine if he were to be drafted as a DL, as 4i may be his best position. I have seen some negativity about his instincts, tackling, and tightness, and i don't know if he could stand up against the bigger tackles.

TBH I would use round two to focus on a WR and a TE. Depending on how the board falls, we may be able to trade back a bit to get someone like Kraft or LaPorta, although given it is our biggest need, I would rather use a 2nd round pick on a guy like Kraft or LaPorta than wait until the 3rd and not get them at all.

I would wait until day 3 to get a Safety. We could take Jordan Battle in the 3rd, although Jason Taylor of Oklahoma St. has caught my eye. John Torchio of Wisconsin could be a late-draft steal.

Again, I am not saying we should trade pick 78, just that, if the board is falling in a way that would have our current picks miss out on the top talent, we should not hesitate to do so.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 24, 2023 at 12:37 am

Packy Cheese 500: "As long as Gutey has a plan (and, based on the Pre draft visits, it seems that he is prioritizing edge rusher and TE), then we should be set."

Packy Cheese 500,

Of the 28 players that the Packers invited for visits so far, 13 of them are projected to be among the top 100 players drafted - i.e. 1st 3 rounds.

Of the 13, they are by position:

1 Quarterback - the only QB invited by the Packers was Hendon Hooker
1 Offensive lineman
3 Tight ends
1 Wide Receiver
4 Edge Rushers
1 Cornerback
2 Safeties

See below:

"Last season, six of the Green Bay Packers’ allowed 30 visits ended up being drafted by the squad in the 2022 draft. Under general manager Brian Gutekunst, the team’s usage of these pre-draft visits has evolved from a recruitment arm of undrafted free agency to a legitimate final look at draftable prospects before the draft.

As of Friday night, 28 of the Packers’ 2023 visits have been reported and/or confirmed. Below are the players who are expected to be drafted in the top 100 selections, per the consensus draft board.

21st: Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee
24th: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
27th: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
30th: Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
32nd: Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
38th: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
41st: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
43rd: Adetomiwa Adeboware, EDGE, Northwestern
48th: Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
71st: Tyrique Stevenson, CB, Miami
74th: Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
85th: Jartavius Martin, SAF, Illinois
92nd: Jammie Robinson, SAF, Florida State"

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:51 pm

The Packers are far from being in a position to just draft the BPA even if its at a position we don't need. We don't NEED a RB but Bijan would be our best RB right away. Really good teams that are not in salary cap jail can draft players and let them sit 2 years. WE are not close to being a really good team.

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:02 pm

Good point GP1.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:16 am

Historically, difference makers for teams are found near the top of the draft in the first round. I realize need is a consideration, but I hope the emphasis will be on selecting a player who they feel will excel above and beyond rather than picking a less talented prospect only to fill a need. Great if the best player available meets a need, but it often doesn't work out that way.

I think "need" can be a much greater consideration outside of that first round pick.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:43 am

The exceptions are usually ones where preconceptions masked ability. (For example the Tedford QB record or from teams whose coaching was undermining, where the magic lightbulb switched on or a scout saw (and was right) about a player not being used optimally for his ability (sometimes due to team needs). The brilliant picks are those that hit in a guy others don’t see or miscast—by luck or judgement.

The howlers are ones who (substances or personal issues aside) are ones like the above where the scout gets it wrong g or ones made to look better by their teammates, by the lesser athleticism or by being in a scheme that won in significant part through its ingenuity during their time there or which doesn’t require players to make the mental decisions that are key in the pros and they can’t when they have to.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:51 pm

Get a blue chip if he shows up, then trade the guy he will replace for another pick. Get Better.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:56 pm

What if you had the chance to draft the top-rated player at a position we need @ #15. That would be TE this year. Or we could just roll with 3 we have. Maybe just put another O-lineman out there. The defense would definitely respect that offensive gameplan.

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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:07 am

You should ALWAYS draft for need...That's what draft picks and depth on your own team are for. The ability to move up and add DIFFERENCE MAKERS at key impact positions is paramount to success. Seek out the projected quality player and go get them..And use depth at positions others need to sweeten the pot to get what you want/ need. You can also pick up players for depth who are coming up for contract renewal to lower your cap hits and use FA to strengthen other areas much like Gute has done with our OL except we need bigger bad ass OG types ASAP. GPG

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:58 pm

Yeah, if we had any money for free agents. Ummm we don't. And we can't afford to waste picks by trading up.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:26 am

The most accurate approach to me is that they put players in “tiers” and then let needs break the ties.
But TT said “you’re only a sprained ankle away from a “need” at any position”!
He was right!

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PhantomII's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:38 am

True...but if you only have a few WR's or TE's on your squad...You in effect have 4/5 players at positions on IR...who are in effect never coming back = NEED.

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TKWorldWide's picture

April 23, 2023 at 01:23 pm

Also true.

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marpag1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:52 pm

"The most accurate approach to me is that they put players in “tiers” and then let needs break the ties."

As a general rule, yes.

I've never understood why this is such a hard thing for some people to understand.

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Packman60's picture

April 23, 2023 at 12:19 pm

I would argue that the Packers have enough needs that they should in most instances be able to draft the BPA and still address needs. About the only position they are unlikely to address is ILB. Everything else is a need if not immediate, then looking ahead to 2024.i.e. Running back and OT aren't immediate needs, but likely will be come 2024. Trust your board this year and let it lead you where it will.

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 02:05 pm

How about Long Snapper? LOL

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:06 pm

But you have to factor in how deep the position groups are that are your biggest needs. If there isn't as much talent available, you might have to reach a bit, or you won't fill that need this year. Take Safety this year. There is a smaller window to draft a Safety that could really help us this year. An extra 2nd or 3rd would really help us this year because that's where the best ones for GB will be available.

In reality we aren't going to be super competitive for a while. But TE is still a huge need we have to fill because we don't have a starting calber TE on the Roster. We need 3.

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:16 pm

Need over Generational talent = Sabotage

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HarryHodag's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:01 pm

Need over FORMER generational talent who soon will be with someone else, by his choice. He's still under contract to the Green Bay. "My intention is to play for the Jets". Ya, the Packers screwed over Aaron. Only signed many, many players to record contracts(including him). Brought back all his buddies to win.
The result? A mediocre season. Why? Because he ain't as good or as smart as the thinks.

The Packers will win without him. Get used to it. I hear there's a sale going on on Jets pennants.

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:21 pm

You can't trade Rodgers for a Gift Card.
And then we get to draft Loves back-up.
Doesn't add up.

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Coldworld's picture

April 23, 2023 at 05:46 pm

Faux generational talent is Mandarich. A pick the whole league hasnt forgotten.

Is Bijan truly generational? Is he so much better than McCaffrey? Chris Johnson etc? How about Peterson or LaDainian? Will he last longer than McCaffrey who also is a dual threat? Will he lift his team higher and carry them further?

Elliot and Gurley were worth their first rounders for their first contract perhaps, but they didn’t change their team’s direction and were not picked by a team with as many holes as we have. The last star RB to win a SuperBowl on a big contract was Lynch a decade ago. To be worth a mid first rounder, certainly in a team set at RB and few other positions, Bijan has to surpass all of those and also stay healthy.

That’s a very big leap of faith. If it’s incorrect, if he’s just good, that’s one hell of a waste of a first and if the opportunity to fill hole(s) with genuine talent we don’t have.

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stockholder's picture

April 23, 2023 at 08:36 pm

Barry Sanders said he hopes the Lions draft him at #6.
Hmm.- Interesting. - He's is compared to him.

You're always going to have holes.
They had holes when they took Love.

How many starters have we lost?
Amos.! And Lazard will be replaced.

There is a Difference between Depth and starter..

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:04 pm

Todd Gurley and Zeke are good examples. I have heard a lot of people comparing CMC to Bijan, but after one healthy season people seem to so quickly forget how oft-injured CMC has been throughout his career.

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jhtobias's picture

April 23, 2023 at 03:40 pm

i would argue does it really matter ? The truth is a team that went 8-9 with one of the most underperforming defenses in recent memories maintained and defended it's DC . Heck give the Vikings credit they saw an issue got a new defensive coordinator and are trying to resolve not compound the problem.

I would say the Lions . The bears , and the Vikings are much better run organizations in 2023 . Only smart move made was Making Rich B the assistant head coach .

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Leatherhead's picture

April 23, 2023 at 04:44 pm

I love your take. The most "underperforming defense" gave up two more points this season than the Super Bowl defense. It was the best defense in the division. Better than the Vikings, or Bears, or Lions.

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PackyCheese500's picture

April 23, 2023 at 10:05 pm

And the Vikes, Lions, and Bears all were among the worst four defenses in the league. As long as we're not in the bottom four, we're good!

If that is the case, then we should all be thrilled with Barry.

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 23, 2023 at 11:50 pm

PackyCheese500 and Leatherhead:

Here below are the actual numbers for points allowed.

As Leatherhead said, Packers were 17th in points allowed in 2022 (tied with the Giants), just 2 points behind Super Bowl winner Kansas City. In 2021 the Packers ranked 13th in points allowed. Chargers, Seahawks, and Vikings - all playoff teams - allowed more points than the Packers in 2022.

Included in the points allowed for the Packers is the blocked punt return that the Jets scored and a pick 6 Aaron threw against New England - the 3 others were Tampa Bay in 2009, at home against the Bengals in 2017 and at Tampa Bay in 2020.

I am sure most of the teams have some type play where either the opponent's special teams or defense scored.

Packers opponents also coincidentally scored 371 points in 2021 too.

That said, only a team with a Miracle Worker like Rodgers can put you in the playoffs year after year - 11 out of 15 years - with defenses that finish outside of the top ten in 12 of 15 years and Management that has gone the longest of all 32 in not selecting a running back, wide receiver or tight end in the first round over 20 years.

I think the Packers defense last year would have been better than 2021 if not for the injuries on defense and offense and Aaron's thumb and turnover in receivers, offensive line. Good defense and special teams make it easier for the offense to be and look good and good offense and special teams make it easier for the defense to be and look good.

Packers if they have Rodgers, free of injury in 2023 - with the same cast as 2022, void of injury - would finish in the 13-4 range again. I expect the same from Jordan, if not it will be on Jordan and Brian and Russ Ball for destroying the team.

The columns below are Games, Total Points and Points per Game.

WK Team Gms Tot Pts Pts/G
1 San Francisco 49ers 17 277 16.3
2 Buffalo Bills 16 286 17.9
3 Baltimore Ravens 17 315 18.5
4 New York Jets 17 316 18.6
5 Dallas Cowboys 17 342 20.1
6 Cincinnati Bengals 16 322 20.1
7 Washington Commanders 17 343 20.2
8 Philadelphia Eagles 17 344 20.2
9 New Orleans Saints 17 345 20.3
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 346 20.4
11 New England Patriots 17 347 20.4
12 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 350 20.6
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 358 21.1
14 Denver Broncos 17 359 21.1
15 Tennessee Titans 17 359 21.1
16 Kansas City Chiefs 17 369 21.7
17 Green Bay Packers 17 371 21.8
18 New York Giants 17 371 21.8
19 Carolina Panthers 17 374 22
20 Cleveland Browns 17 381 22.4
21 Los Angeles Chargers 17 384 22.6
22 Los Angeles Rams 17 384 22.6
23 Atlanta Falcons 17 386 22.7
24 Miami Dolphins 17 399 23.5
25 Seattle Seahawks 17 401 23.6
26 Las Vegas Raiders 17 418 24.6
27 Houston Texans 17 420 24.7
28 Detroit Lions 17 427 25.1
29 Indianapolis Colts 17 427 25.1
30 Minnesota Vikings 17 427 25.1
31 Arizona Cardinals 17 449 26.4
32 Chicago Bears 17 463 27.2

-1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 24, 2023 at 10:33 am

Yes, they were. And we were AVERAGE, just like the Chiefs. Take away the 14 garbage points we gave to the Vikings and we're near the Top Ten.

We were a weak team offensively last year. That needs to change.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 23, 2023 at 06:10 pm

Our defense was supposed to be top 5 last year, so yeah they underperformed bigtime. But then so did the offense. Kind of a strange year when points scored and points given up are almost the same. Do you remember when we could just outscore other teams?

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StarrtoRodgers's picture

April 24, 2023 at 07:41 am

golfpacker1: "Our defense was supposed to be top 5 last year, so yeah they underperformed bigtime."

Dear Golfpacker 1:

1) Specifically who said the Packer defense was supposed to be "top 5" last year?

2) "Top 5" of 32 teams in fewest points allowed?

Just wondering who that specific statement came from and what was the basis/facts used for reaching that conclusion.

Below are my conclusions as expressed to PackyCheese 500 and Leatherhead:

PackyCheese500 and Leatherhead:

Here below are the actual numbers for points allowed.

As Leatherhead said, Packers were 17th in points allowed in 2022 (tied with the Giants), just 2 points behind Super Bowl winner Kansas City. In 2021 the Packers ranked 13th in points allowed. Chargers, Seahawks, and Vikings - all playoff teams - allowed more points than the Packers in 2022..

Included in the points allowed for the Packers is the blocked punt return that the Jets scored and a pick 6 Aaron threw against New England - the 3 others were Tampa Bay in 2009, at home against the Bengals in 2017 and at Tampa Bay in 2020.

I am sure most of the teams have some type play where either the opponent's special teams or defense scored.

Packers opponents also coincidentally scored 371 points in 2021 too.

That said, only a team with a Miracle Worker like Rodgers can put you in the playoffs year after year - 11 out of 15 years - with defenses that finish outside of the top ten in 12 of 15 years and Management that has gone the longest of all 32 in not selecting a running back, wide receiver or tight end in the first round over 20 years.

I think the Packers defense last year would have been better than 2021 if not for the injuries on defense and offense and Aaron's thumb and turnover in receivers, offensive line. Good defense and special teams make it easier for the offense to be and look good and good offense and special teams make it easier for the defense to be and look good.

Packers if they have Rodgers, free of injury in 2023 - with the same cast as 2022, void of injury - would finish in the 13-4 range again. I expect the same from Jordan, if not it will be on Jordan and Brian and Russ Ball for destroying the team.

The columns below are Games, Total Points and Points per Game.

WK Team Gms Tot Pts Pts/G
1 San Francisco 49ers 17 277 16.3
2 Buffalo Bills 16 286 17.9
3 Baltimore Ravens 17 315 18.5
4 New York Jets 17 316 18.6
5 Dallas Cowboys 17 342 20.1
6 Cincinnati Bengals 16 322 20.1
7 Washington Commanders 17 343 20.2
8 Philadelphia Eagles 17 344 20.2
9 New Orleans Saints 17 345 20.3
10 Pittsburgh Steelers 17 346 20.4
11 New England Patriots 17 347 20.4
12 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 350 20.6
13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 358 21.1
14 Denver Broncos 17 359 21.1
15 Tennessee Titans 17 359 21.1
16 Kansas City Chiefs 17 369 21.7
17 Green Bay Packers 17 371 21.8
18 New York Giants 17 371 21.8
19 Carolina Panthers 17 374 22
20 Cleveland Browns 17 381 22.4
21 Los Angeles Chargers 17 384 22.6
22 Los Angeles Rams 17 384 22.6
23 Atlanta Falcons 17 386 22.7
24 Miami Dolphins 17 399 23.5
25 Seattle Seahawks 17 401 23.6
26 Las Vegas Raiders 17 418 24.6
27 Houston Texans 17 420 24.7
28 Detroit Lions 17 427 25.1
29 Indianapolis Colts 17 427 25.1
30 Minnesota Vikings 17 427 25.1
31 Arizona Cardinals 17 449 26.4
32 Chicago Bears 17 463 27.2

-1 points
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Leatherhead's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:23 pm

Our defense was supposed to be top 5 last year,

According to whom?

Four of the NFC playoff teams surrendered fewer points, three surrendered more. So if you look at the set of NFC playoff teams, our defense is about...............(drum roll, please).....AVERAGE. It surrendered 27 more points than the NFC champion Eagles. Fourteen of those were garbage time points against Minnesota, and several others were an immediate result of a turnover.

The defense is good enough to win the division. It's the best defense in the division. We need to improve the offense if we want to win the division again.

0 points
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Turophile's picture

April 24, 2023 at 01:23 am

Will the Pack4ers draft for need ? The answer is both yes and no.

Taken as a whole, the Packers have to address positions like Safety, TE, Edge. However, on any single pick they might find a player so high on their board (relative to what else is available) that they pull the trigger when other positions need help more.

For example (and this is only an example) they could decide the hell with not taking a RB in round one, because Bijan Robinson is head and shoulders above any other pick, so they go get him. They might also look to the future and get an OT there, because they see that as a key position and round one worthy, despite their needs at Edge, TE and Safety.

1 points
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