Will the Elements Play In Green Bay's Favor On Monday Night?
The Green Bay Packers will host the New Orleans Saints in a cold, snowy showdown on Monday Night Football.
Primetime at Lambeau Field. Snow falling under the lights. The Green Bay Packers on center stage. It’s a classic scene straight out of football’s rich history, just the way the football gods intended.
On Monday night, the Packers will face a Saints defense that has struggled significantly this season. According to Pro Football Focus, New Orleans ranks 29th overall defensively, including 31st in run defense, 22nd in tackling, and 28th in EPA per rush. They also sit at 30th in rushing success rate and run defense DVOA, while allowing the second-most yards per carry in the league.
Furthermore, they have allowed 6.3 yards after the catch per reception this season, the fourth-highest mark in the league, along with the most yards after the catch over expected. On the other hand, Green Bay's pass catchers lead the league with 7.1 yards after the catch per reception. Combine that with New Orleans’ status as a dome team heading into Lambeau’s frozen tundra, and the matchup feels like a perfect storm in Green Bay’s favor—especially with Josh Jacobs ready to take the reins.
Green Bay has leaned on its running game all season, and the formula has been successful. They are 4-0 when Jacobs has at least 25 rushing attempts, 4-1 when he rushes 18 or more times, and 7-0 when he earns a rushing grade above 70.0. Expect head coach Matt LaFleur to design a game plan that runs through Jacobs early and often. In their opening drive against Seattle last week, Jacobs touched the ball on nine of 10 plays, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Green Bay takes a similar approach against the Saints—potentially across multiple drives.
Everything points to Green Bay being able to run on New Orleans. The Packers’ offense ranks in the top 10 in EPA per rush, while the Saints’ run defense sits in the bottom five. Jacobs’ ability to force missed tackles and gain yards after contact—ranking among the league’s best in both categories—makes him an even bigger threat in cold weather, where tackling becomes even more difficult.
The Packers need to control the time of possession, keep the Saints’ offense frozen on the sidelines, and establish dominance through the ground game. With a short week ahead and a critical divisional matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers’ best chance of securing a win—and avoiding unnecessary wear and tear in frigid conditions—is to take command early.
The elements have played a notable role in the Packers’ home success this season. Against the Miami Dolphins on Thanksgiving, Green Bay’s defense dominated the first half, keeping Miami’s offense completely out of sync. By the time the Dolphins found any rhythm, they were already down by three scores. That game saw Green Bay rack up a season-high (up to that point) in pressures and sack Tua Tagovailoa five times. A week earlier, the Packers hosted the San Francisco 49ers at a chilly Lambeau and held them to their season-low in points at the time.
Still, it’s not always sunshine and rainbows—or in the Packers' case, snowmen and frozen fingers. The weather advantage hasn’t always guaranteed success, as seen in losses to warm-weather teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2020 NFC Championship and the San Francisco 49ers in the 2021 Divisional Round. Earlier this year, Green Bay’s 24-14 defeat to the Detroit Lions reignited questions about whether the elements still played in the Packers’ favor.
However, Green Bay has the league's best home record since 2008, and while they’ve faced setbacks in the past, there’s far more evidence to suggest that the Frozen Tundra is more often an unwelcoming environment for the other 31 teams.
This year’s Packers have the tools to go toe-to-toe with anyone, regardless of the venue. They have a top-tier running game, a top-ten quarterback, a top-ten scoring defense, and coaches who know how to maximize talent on both sides of the ball. Adding to their advantage on Monday, the Saints will be without key players, including Chris Olave, Rasheed Shaheed, Alvin Kamara, and Paulson Adebo.
The Packers have the better offense, the stronger defense, and superior coaching. With the elements serving as another weapon in their arsenal, the Packers have everything aligned to deliver a great performance in front of their home crowd and secure their ticket to the playoffs. As my colleague Greg Meinholz aptly put it, the Packers and cold weather have been synonymous for decades. On Monday, the Green and Gold have a chance to add another memorable chapter to their storied history of dominating chilly, cold games on the frozen tundra.
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Felipe is a Brazilian Packers writer covering the #GoPackGo for CheeseheadTV, Zone Coverage, and Packers Talk. Additionally, he contributes to Cheeseheads Brazil. Follow him on twitter at @Aceti_Felipe.
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Comments (24)
HarryHodag
December 22, 2024 at 07:37 am
Sorry, but 'the elements' argument falls on deaf ears here. It's cold on both sides of the field. We've seen teams come north and be unaffected by the elements. Same is true for teams in dome stadiums. The NFL is all about parity and on any given Sunday anything can happen. That is factual.
If the Packers win the game it will be because more motivated players executing a solid game plan with a large and vocal crowd behind them.
Never forget the Dallas Cowboys had the Packers on the rocks during the "Ice Bowl" and were it not for a miraculous final drive, the Packers would have lost the game.
'The elements' are nice to write about but in reality, it's far down the list of factors in the game.
EricTorkelson
December 22, 2024 at 08:45 am
Mostly agree with you Harry, although some QBs adapt better to the cold air throwing the ball than others, Favre was great in the cold and a young Rodgers also .. They adjusted there game/throws and mentally felt they had an advantage over the opposing QB whether they did or not. Elements in the ICE BOWL, if you remember I believe the Packers were dominating and driving for a three touchdown lead when Starr slipped on the ice under pressure fumbled and gave the cowboys there first score and a whole lot of momentum, So yes good or bad ....
LLCHESTY
December 22, 2024 at 11:04 pm
", Favre was great in the cold"
Until 2007. That year not so much.
murf7777
December 23, 2024 at 08:26 am
You’re right that there is parity and anything can happen on any day. But, there’s also a reason GB is a 14 point favorite and one that I think Vegas is having a hard time getting it high enough. Yes, the elements do matter, not on an any given day or by listing some games here or there, but by using the odds. The odds are in the favor that they will win at home. There’s many reasons Packers have the best winning percentage since 2008 and part of that is they are more accustomed to playing & practicing in the elements.
Major Snafu
December 23, 2024 at 11:34 am
I would normally agree with you but I liken it to being outside in the damp cold and standing around watching others skate or sled. If your active your warmer then just standing around.
The Saints have nothing to play for. Thus, they will be freezing and hoping to be on the bus home soon. Burr its cold outside HA
Coldworld
December 22, 2024 at 08:13 am
I can see the elements playing a role in games when the weather is genuinely extreme. However, and I accept the writer is from different climes, Monday night will not be that. It might look Christmassy, but the field has heating and the temperature is not going to be breath-stealing cold, just a little below freezing and, critically, no significant wind chill. With sideline heating these days too, the conditions shouldn’t be a factor even if real cold might be.
murf7777
December 23, 2024 at 08:34 am
Shouldn’t be a big difference with predictions of 31 degrees and 7 MPH winds. The difference though is anytime you go below freezing it changes the ball. It becomes more slippery, which makes it harder to catch and throw. It also hurts more when you get hit. Also, it’s easier to fumble the ball. I think we will get 3 TO’s in this game and win by 20+.
Coldworld
December 23, 2024 at 09:49 am
All those things are true, but really, that’s not that cold/chilled. The effects really don’t get that significant till it’s colder than that. Unless, that is, opponents let it get into their head, which the freezer story may suggest.
ricky
December 22, 2024 at 09:34 am
I'm less concerned about the weather, and more concerned about the Packers taking a victory as a given. Especially with a very big divisional game next week. The stats are all interesting, and point toward an easy victory for the Packers, but that is meaningless. As HarryHodag wrote, every game is unique, and the unexpected should always be expected.
What I totally agree with is the idea that the Packers should come out with all guns blazing. Get a lead, make the Saints as one-dimensional as possible, and would it be nice if the home team was able to rest their RB in the second half, let Willis take over late in the game. But whether the Packers win by one on a last second FG, or by 20 in a rout, just win.
jlc1
December 22, 2024 at 10:13 am
Dome teams are like teams from warm weather. Detroit knocked the snot out of the Pack in bad weather this year. Plus Lambeau is a field that is always seeming to cause players to lose footing, no matter the weather or team. So I agree with those who say game plan and focus are a whole lot more important than some perceived weather advantage no matter how much the stupid announcers talk about it. And they will, ad nauseum.
Since'61
December 22, 2024 at 11:11 am
Based on the forecast as of now I don't think that the weather will be a major factor in the MNF game against the Saints. If strong wind was in the forecast that would be a significant issue but the predicted temperature and precipitation should not make an impact on the game.
The Packers need to avoid looking past the Saints and ahead to the Vikings game. The Packers need to start fast, build a lead and keep their foot on the gas for 60 minutes. Stay focused, take care of business and play to get their playoff spot locked in.
Run the ball, keep the Saints offense off the field and pressure the Saints QB. Win the LOS on both sides of the ball will be a much greater factor in winning this game than the weather.
The Packers are playing at home, they have the better team and they are playing for a playoff spot. They should only lose this game if they beat themselves. Keep penalties to a minimum. Alexander returning should be a boost for the defense. Should be a 30+ night for the Packers offense. Go Pack Go!
Thanks, Since '61
dobber
December 23, 2024 at 08:33 am
Agreed.
This morning's forecast says low 30s with precipitation ending by mid-afternoon. Winds won't be a problem.
So--weather won't be an excuse.
SicSemperTyrannis
December 22, 2024 at 05:02 pm
"The elements:"
forecast is for maximum of 3" of snow, with most of it falling at just above freezing. If it actually falls as snow and does not melt, it will be VERY wet. Temps are forecast to barely change by game's end, from 34 - 30° F. 5-6 mph wind. Of course at Lambeau that could mean higher gusts and from unexpected directions, but the wet field will be the biggest factor. If it stops snowing by opening kickoff there won't even be a wet ball.
This means run game wins.
LeotisHarris
December 22, 2024 at 07:33 pm
I thought the last time we had this discussion we agreed boron doesn't play favorites and always wins.
dobber
December 22, 2024 at 10:55 pm
Sing it, Leotis!
LLCHESTY
December 22, 2024 at 11:07 pm
I thought that stuff I liked playing with as a kid was mercury?
Bitternotsour
December 22, 2024 at 11:42 pm
which explains so much
LeotisHarris
December 23, 2024 at 09:39 am
My brother and I used to try to fit our heads in the x-ray machine at the shoe store. We used to pretend we were monsters walking out of the fog behind the city truck spraying DDT for mosquitos, too. So, ya know, I got that going for me.
Bitternotsour
December 23, 2024 at 03:42 pm
That DDT fogger was mesmerizing, I remember the kids who rode their bikes behind it. In the 2000's My farm in NJ was about 7 miles from the Super Fund site where it was manufactured...
Bitternotsour
December 23, 2024 at 03:46 pm
I also remember the Pedoscopes tm - but we always got shoes that were a size up so we could "grow into them" so no need for the fitting view...
SinceLombardi
December 22, 2024 at 10:04 pm
I don’t think it will matter. The Packers are playing a little better every week now. I think they will defeat the Saints handily.
GregC
December 23, 2024 at 09:37 am
I'm so sick of Packer fans thinking the weather is going to win games for them. It doesn't, and as most commenters here have noted, it's not even going to be extreme weather tonight. The Saints are a professional football team that has won 3 out 5 games for their interim coach. They will probably put up a good fight. The Patriots were competitive against the Bills yesterday, and the Cowboys beat the Buccaneers. These guys are playing for a lot of money, even if they are out of the playoff race. They're not going to roll over and die.
Major Snafu
December 23, 2024 at 11:41 am
The packers said they plan to accomodate the Saints and by all means making them feel at home.
1. They will put a large vat of rotting fish on their side lines so it smells like the bayou.
2. A small brass band will be there to play some dixie in their ears all night long
3. Fans will toss gold and green stringed beads at them in honor of mardi gras.
4. There water bottles with be filled Red Hot sauce instead.
5. All Saints announcements will be in French Cajun.
cdoemel
December 23, 2024 at 04:33 pm
Snow will end before the gates open, but it’s gonna be coooold!