What Matters Most Isn't Always Measurable

Judging by statistics alone is a fool's game

Years ago, when I first started here with Cheesehead TV, my role was to publish game recaps after every single Packers game. When this role was first presented to me, my first thought was that I needed to paint a picture beyond the box score. Any somewhat educated person with a keyboard can copy/paste stats from the end of the game and call it a recap. I wanted to do my best to immerse the reader in each drive and not just tell them that Jordan Love threw a 30-yard touchdown pass to Christian Watson, but tell them how they got there and what helped Watson get wide open down the field for the big play. 

I thoroughly enjoyed the comments I received from folks who may have missed the game, saying they felt like they didn't need to watch their recording, they just had to read my recap. And obviously, I did something right, as I'm still on this platform today. But it's exactly that detail that separates many of us fans. You have your box score watchers who define games and players by the numbers they look at for ten seconds, and then you have your detail-oriented fans who are able to break down the cause and effect of most plays/drives. This isn't a gate-keeping statement; everyone can "fan" how they want, but when it comes to passing judgment, it's better to have the full breakdown. 

You hear it time and time again that football is the ultimate team sport. 11 players on that field need to do their job in order to find success. If Josh Jacobs breaks out a 40-yard touchdown run, of course, the camera is going to zoom in on Jacobs, and the stat sheet is going to be padded in his favor. But what doesn't the stat sheet show? How he got there. It doesn't show Zach Tom and Tucker Kraft sealing the edge, it doesn't show Christian Watson walking his defender ten yards down the field and out of the play. But that's what makes that play happen, and those players deserve the credit due for getting the job done. 

Football is all about cause and effect. If this happens, then that can happen. The sheer presence of one player alone can change an offense or a defense dramatically. One player who can do exactly that for the Green Bay Packers is Christian Watson. 

Going Beyond the Box Score

Ever since Christian Watson was drafted, he's been defined as a deep-threat receiver. If he gets behind a defender on a route or has the ball in open space with an open field ahead, there is no catching him.  As a result, secondaries need to account for his speed on every play. If Christian Watson takes off on a fly or post pattern, there's a good chance he's going to pull his assigned corner, as well as a safety to defend him. 

That attention draw can easily leave other receivers, or a tight end like Tucker Kraft, in favorable one-on-one mismatch situations in the short or medium game. A prime example of this was Watson's return from his ACL injury to face Pittsburgh. The attention of the Steelers' defense immediately went to the threat of Watson deep, and as a result, Kraft went off for the best game of his career, making 7 catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns. 

A box score watcher would look at this as "wow, Kraft really went off in this game," and then look at Watson's four catches for 85 yards and say, "pretty decent for his first game back." When honestly, Watson shared in the majority of Kraft's success. But there's no way to truly measure the impact of essentially acting as a decoy. Nor is there a good way to measure impact blocking from a receiver. PFF might try to grade a receiver's blocking abilities, and Christian Watson has ranked high on their lists, but "key block to spring a big play" isn't listed on the stat sheet.

Rest assured, though, coaches and GMs see those unheralded actions, and they don't forget. Yesterday, Matt LaFleur praised Christian Watson, noting that Watson embodies the team's culture and that he never complains about targets, always puts the team first. Some fans may roll their eyes hearing this term if the player talked about is one they're not a fan of, but the term "good locker room guy" is one some teams value more than others. If statistically, a player is ranked 20th in the league, but is considered a "good locker room guy," the team may value him as if he's ranked in the top-10. 

Much like the game recaps I used to write, the full story of a game doesn't always lie in the box score. Many fans balked at Christian Watson's extension this week. But Watson's value in Green Bay goes way beyond catches, yards, and touchdowns. He commands a defense's attention, and he selflessly creates opportunities for his teammates, whether it be by throwing blocks or running routes as a decoy. Those contributions don't show up on a stat line, but they're often the reason why a teammate's stats do. 

 

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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.

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Comments (14)

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Leatherhead's picture

June 10, 2026 at 10:43 am

It's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

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T7Steve's picture

June 10, 2026 at 12:53 pm

You made that up! Ha.

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TKWorldWide's picture

June 10, 2026 at 01:36 pm

And if the dog can run a 4.3 forty, all the better. 😂🏈

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BuckyBadger's picture

June 10, 2026 at 10:58 am

As a hobby handicapper I spend a lot of my free time playing with box scores and "advance" analytics. I love to play with numbers and see if there is anything that can be predictive. I agree 100% on this article. There is only so much you can pull out of a box score or even the most advance stats. There are things like depth of target, success rates for DVOA and about 100 different QB rating systems that try to incorporate more of the nuances of the game but nothing will ever replace good ole film review in football. There is just too much. Watson blocking down field or running his route with purpose doesn't show up in the stat sheet. The safety biting down on the run or holding his position because the RB has been punishing them all game is hard to show in a box score.

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LambeauPlain's picture

June 10, 2026 at 11:03 am

Anyone who has played football knows the value of team leaders. They often are not the marquee guys either...but some are. Letting their play do the talking quickly gets noticed by teammates and soon leadership roles find them.

As a rookie, Watson was one of those "marquee guys" who let his play to the talking. His injuries, after a fairly injury free, highly productive college career were disheartening...but Christian did not whine or lament. He just went to work. He genuinely loves football and it shows.

You win in a team game with guys like Watson...who naturally become team leaders.

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GregC's picture

June 10, 2026 at 11:34 am

This is very true, and it is something that is not emphasized enough. PFF invented a rating scale that takes some of those hard-to-measure things into account, such as blocking by receivers, but there's only so much you can do, and it's hard to tell if PFF's numbers are accurate, especially now that they've apparently reduced their staff.

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T7Steve's picture

June 10, 2026 at 01:01 pm

The only thing you can do is compare others stats when he's on the field versus when he's not and wins and losses.

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BuckyBadger's picture

June 10, 2026 at 01:20 pm

I have done some deep dives into how PFF goes about their ratings and I think they do a very good job over all but even they will tell you that there is a certain amount of error in what they do. Their film study is intense but they don't know the play called and without that a lot of what they base their stats on (like positive or negative play) can be off. Maybe he didn't miss his assignment but it appears to us and our NFL consultants he did.

Sort of like combine results, just one piece of the puzzle.

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GregC's picture

June 10, 2026 at 01:33 pm

That's what I've always wondered about with PFF. For example, I think judging the performance of CBs in pass coverage is usually (but not always!) straightforward, but if a linebacker or safety gives up a completion, you often can't tell whether they made a bad play or whether they did everything right but just happened to be the closest player to the guy who caught the pass. Maybe it was another defender who screwed up and got out of position.

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BuckyBadger's picture

June 10, 2026 at 02:47 pm

Would be a great job. Sit around all day watching football, many times with past players to pick their mind.

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Snap the ball's picture

June 10, 2026 at 12:22 pm

When we play the Vikings they cover him with 3 defenders sometimes 4 if they think Love is throwing to him.

Need to do some other things with line up etc vs last year with him.

He learned a lot from Rodgers the first year then a switch in QB takes time.

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Since'61's picture

June 10, 2026 at 02:18 pm

Box scores have always been the facts of the game without context. They are data but not information. They don't tell you that a DB fell down leaving a WR . wide open on the play or that an interception was caused by the pass going off a receiver's hands and into the hands of a DB. The variables are too numerous to mention. It's true for the box scores in every sport.

They are a piece of all the information needed to assess what happended on the field that produced the results in the box score. That is why for me it is best to watch the game either live or taped or both. Thanks, Since '61

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GregC's picture

June 10, 2026 at 03:00 pm

Yep, there are just too many variables. Of the major team sports, football is by far the most difficult to analyze. Baseball is the easiest because most of the action takes place in direct relation to the ball. Basketball is pretty easy too because the action takes place in a small area. Hockey, on the other hand, is confusing to me, partly because I did not watch it when I was growing up, but I think it really is hard to tell what the players are doing out there and who is responsible for what.

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Since'75's picture

June 10, 2026 at 03:22 pm

Not sure why this article came out.
It looks like someone wants to defend Watson.
Which is fine, i just thought this was already played out.

Was it because of the critique of Watson.....
Too much money?
Too little production?
Stats are bogus?
Someone had to be paid?

When i get some more time, i'll gather up some more thumbs down and weigh in on this with some truths and realism.
It's not negative, as i said before, Watson has skills.
But when someone gets a new contract, it's not unfair to look at it, compare it with others at the same position, etc.
Watson isn't crying. The Packers aren't crying, and we shouldn't be crying.

I did the same thing (down the hall) when Gary got his 2nd contract
We didn't have thumbs down over there, instead... we actually formed thoughts, and voiced opinions.

When i get some more time, i'll gather up some more thumbs down concerning this article, among other things. 😉

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