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Why the Packers Will Beat the Bills and Why they might not

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Why the Packers Will Beat the Bills and Why they might not

Things didn't look great for the Green Bay Packers last week in Washington. In fact, the loss was downright ugly, yet, one week does not a season make and Sunday, the Packers will get the chance to make amends against the visiting Buffalo Bills.

Admittedly, the Bills are a hard team to figure out. The first two weeks of the season, Buffalo was treated like a rag doll. They lost 47-3 in Week 1 against the Ravens and 31-20 the next week to the Chargers, in a game that wasn't even that close, before heading to Minnesota last week and drubbing the Vikings 27-6. 

The Bills and Vikings each finished with 292 yards of offense, however, Buffalo forced three turnovers, sacked Kirk Cousins four times and rushed for 128 yards compared to 14 on the ground for Minnesota. 

The impressive win also came in the first career start of Wyoming rookie and first-round pick Josh Allen, who will start opposite Aaron Rodgers Sunday at Lambeau Field.

At 1-1-1, the Packers are in fine shape. But they need to come away with a win against Buffalo. The next few games are really important, especially with the schedule toughening up soon. The Bills, on the other hand, are going to be equally motivated and after winning at Minnesota, the Bills will try to win with much the same formula Sunday in Green Bay.

Will they be successful? Only time will tell. But here are a few reasons why the Packers will win today as well why they might not.

Why the Packers will win

Sometimes, even good teams look mediocre on the road and last week, Green Bay looked extremely mediocre. The defense struggled and the offense just couldn't get on track. And whenever there was a beacon of hope, it was quickly extinguished by Alex Smith and the Redskins. 

But this week is a new week and with Rodgers getting healthier, the Packers offense should be more productive. While the defense ranks 23rd in both yards and points allowed, the offense isn't much better. Green Bay is 14th when it comes to points scored, 18th in the NFL when it comes to total offense and 14th when it comes to passing yards. Not exactly what you'd expect from a Rodgers-led offense.

The running game has been sound, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and following Aaron Jones performance of six runs for 42, that should continue. But if Randall Cobb is unable to play, he's questionable right now, it could put even more pressure on guys like Jones and Ty Montgomery to catch the ball out of the backfield.

No matter what, the Packers have to establish the run against the Bills and with Jones, plus Jamaal Williams getting most of the carries it should. It doesn't have to be great. But it can't finish with anything resembling six runs for 14 yards. 

If Cobb is out, Rodgers is going to have to rely heavily on Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Jimmy Graham. Those guys are good enough to manufacture a solid passing game, one that will be required to beat the Bills Sunday.

But really, the key is going to be Rodgers and the offense starting fast. If the offense can get things going early and grab a lead, the Packers should find a way to win. They are the better team; they have the better quarterback, they are playing at home and they have the better head coach. 

The defense hasn't lived up to expectations, which is a big shock, but this feels like the week things could turn around. If not though, Rodgers and the offense should still be able to do enough to win the game, especially if the two-time MVP can avoid turnovers and just make a few of those special plays in the game only he can make. Part of the reason a guy gets paid $140 million is to win games like this and that is what Rodgers will do.

Why Green Bay might lose

There two things Packers fans should really be concerned about with the Bills and that's their running game, as well as their defense. Buffalo is coming into the game with a rookie quarterback and just like last week against the Vikings, the formula for winning will be simple: run the ball, play good defense, force turnovers and get efficient play from their quarterback.

Buffalo did all those things last week and if the Bills can manage to check off those things again this week, they could leave Lambeau with another upset win. LeSean McCoy is expected to play for the Bills, who along with Chris Ivory, will be the key to the run game.

The Packers have allowed 4.7 yards per rush and were run over by Adrian Peterson last week. Simply put, the run defense has to be better. The pass rush isn't getting home, the secondary is getting beat and if Green Bay can't stop the run, winning this game is going to be a much more difficult.

Facing a rookie quarterback gives the Packers a huge advantage. There is no question about that. But if the Bills can establish the run and win the turnover battle, they can beat the Packers, however doing those things at Lambeau, against a desperate Green Bay team, might be easier said than done. 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (13) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

MarkinMadison's picture

The right side of the offensive line was a question mark heading into the season. It still is a question mark. The Packers have given up 12 sacks so far this year, twice as many as they have generated. Even throwing in two for Matthews, this is a statistic that has to change, especially with Rodgers playing hurt. Line play, play calling and QB decision making all have to address the vulnerabilities here in order to sustain any kind of success. I don't like seeing the Bills right now. They are bad, but they are also just the wrong flavor of bad for the Packers.

On the defensive side of the ball the safeties are bad and the corners are a mix of young and bad. House going on IR is a step in the right direction (I hope he will be ok). I just don't think the horses are there. CM3 and Perry are o.k. Neither is worth the salary they are pulling at this point.

If the Packers manage to win it will either be a really ugly win, or Rodgers will be on fire. It feels like that is all that ever happens in Green Bay.

Thebearsstillsuck's picture

Why the Packers might win. Aaron Rodgers

Why the Packers might loose. Mike Mccarthy, Ted Thompson, HaHa Clinton Dix, Kentrel Brice, Byron Bell, Nick Perry, Clay Matthews farts within 5 yards of a QB and gets a penalty.

EdsLaces's picture

HHCD is playing a little better, he just needs help back there ! HHCD with pick #3 for the season early in this game. Alexander snagging another one later on and we put these Bills away. Green and Gold are gonna circle the wagon today!

MarkinMadison's picture

Eric Reid was sitting there. I'm a veteran and I don't give a flip about the flag flap. (And seriously, if you are under 35 and don't have a physical disability, do NOT bitch about the flag thing - go take the oath.) If they were serious about fixing this team they should have signed him when he was available.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

Fire Capers!

stockholder's picture

Turning back to the days of the Sherman Tank? Enough of the veterans who only collect their check.

Tarynfor12's picture

Why the Bills might win...Run game and defense.

Why the Packers might win...IF this...If that...and IF this and that...IF, If,IF.

CJ Bauckham's picture

If* run game and If* defense.

Every team has their 'if's.

The TKstinator's picture

No, only GB. That’s the reality of it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

4zone's picture

I like Burks with a game under his belt. I can see us loading the box today and daring the rookie to beat us over the top.

Fordham Ram's picture

All teams have If's, it's the big if for your individual team and the ability to overcome it that counts in any given season. So far from what I've seen these past three games is, can we stop the run? We're near the bottom in that department. If we can't stop the run its gonna be a long season, if we do then all things are possible. Buffalo gets its ace RB back today, its time we made a statement, no, if's and's or but's. Shuffle off to Buffalo Go Pack Go

Royalty Free GM's picture

Why the Green Bay Rodgers might win

PatrickGB's picture

If the Bills pass rush gets home like they did against the queens and run the ball sucessfully then they win.

If the packers protect Aaron and can run the ball and limit their run game then the Packers win.

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