The Lass Word: Packers Need a Drop in Drops
Receivers must become more reliable.
By KenLass
When it comes to the Green Bay Packers passing game in 2023, I have absolutely no doubts about Jordan Love. He has the arm. He has shown the accuracy. The decision-making and the smarts will come with a little more experience. He will be fine.
What may be cause for concern is on the other end of those throws. The Packers led the NFL in the murky statistic of dropped passes last season. It is murky because determining whether a pass should have been caught is often purely a matter of opinion. Did the quarterback throw it too high or too low? Did he throw it too soft or too hard? Did the receiver take a brutal hit that jarred the ball loose?
The criteria for what constitutes a drop varies widely. Some are very simple and straightforward. ESPN stat keepers consider a drop to apply to any pass “that can be caught with ordinary effort”. In other words, only the most blatant and obvious drops are counted. Other services can be much more technical and less forgiving. The result is a wide variety of totals when it comes to drops.
For example, Pro Football Reference has the Packers with 40 drops in 2022. ESPN put the total at 30. But no matter whose system you decide to go by, they all agree the Packers had more than anybody else in the league. I found this to be true across a number of different statistical providers. This has to change if Jordan Love has any chance to succeed in his first year as the full time starter.
Who was the worst offender? You might be tempted to say Christian Watson. After all, his dropping of a 75 yard sure touchdown on Green Bay’s first offensive play of the season has become something of a legend. The networks take delight in replaying it every time the second year receiver is talked about. But that play created a false narrative. Contrary to perception, Watson went on to have a very reliable year. According to FantasyPros, Watson was targeted 65 times, 45 of which were deemed “catchable”. He dropped just four of them for a drop rate of just under nine percent. That would put him in the same zip code with the more sure-handed receivers in the game.
Would it surprise you to learn that there was someone on the team whose rate was more than double that figure? True. Romeo Doubs was targeted 67 times, 53 of which were deemed catchable. He was judged to have dropped nine of them, more than double Watson’s total. Doubs’ drop rate was just under seventeen percent, which not only led the Packers, but the entire National Football League.
While everyone remembers the Watson drop against the Vikings, few recall the pass in the end zone in week four against the Patriots that fell beautifully into Doubs’ hands, only to be bobbled away upon contact with the ground. The score would have won the game in regulation. Green Bay was fortunate to come back to defeat New England in overtime. Romeo dropped four passes in one game in a loss to Washington. One of them was a backbreaker on fourth and one with Green Bay trailing 20-14.
It was encouraging, therefore, to read several reports of Doubs being one of the standouts at OTA’s. He is a hard worker, and perhaps he has put the problem behind him. Considering there are indications he will be Love’s favorite target this fall, it is critical he becomes more reliable.
It’s also concerning that, after Doubs, the players with the second and third highest number of drops were running backs. AJ Dillon had seven, followed by Aaron Jones with six. There is no question Matt LaFleur is going to rely heavily on his running backs as receivers this fall. Short, safe throws to Dillon and Jones will be called frequently in an effort to get them out into space to utilize their talent. Jones was also split out wide on occasion. Those little flares to the backs often come up on third and short. Dropping them can be fatal.
To put Green Bay’s dropping issue into a bit of perspective, consider that, according to Pro Football Reference, Aaron Rodgers had just 13 passes dropped in 2021, compared to 40 last year. No player on the 2021 team had more than three. In 2022 five different players had more than three.
The good news is, this is a problem that is fixable, and usually gets better with time. Some of the best receivers in the game (can you say Davante Adams?) struggled with hanging on to the ball early in their careers. Doubs, Watson, Jones and Dillon have, at one time or another, shown the ability to make highly contested, and sometimes spectacular catches in a game.
Scouting reports on rookie Jayden Reed say he has a tendency to lose focus on short and intermediate routes, but his talent at contested catches is undeniable, with a fierce determination to win the ball. First year tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft figure to be targeted regularly as well. Bleacher Report analyzed Musgrave as having “above-average ball-tracking skills and hands to locate a ball away from his frame.” Kraft’s catching ability was described by one scout as “decent but not great”.
All of this uncertainty points to a real roller coaster ride for the Packers passing attack in 2023. You can expect thrilling catches, mixed in with inexcusable drops. It will be a season full of surprises, good and bad.
But you knew that, didn’t you? So get your rest now. Come September, have your sedatives and blood pressure medicine close by.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
Comments (46)
Savage57
June 26, 2023 at 06:30 am
I remember seeing a piece about how Sterling Sharpe practiced and warmed up before a game.
He watched every ball into his hands and then brought it into his body with extreme focus and exaggeration.
Find these young guys the film.
lou
June 26, 2023 at 07:51 am
The recording of "Drops" in his rookie season by the Press Gazette sports writers is what triggered Sharpe's cool relationship with the press. Had he stayed healthy he would have rewritten the record books for the wide receiver position. Everyone knew he was getting the ball with marginal talent in the rest of the receiver group until Brooks arrived but he still got open and made the plays. He was as clutch as "Mr. October", that game winning last play TD versus the Lion's in the playoff game was a classic.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 07:38 am
Savage, there's quite a bit I hope the entire coaching staff have been showing the yutes. Working out like Jerry Rice could help ...
NickPerry
June 26, 2023 at 06:54 am
"The networks take delight in replaying it every time the second year receiver is talked about. But that play created a false narrative. Contrary to perception, Watson went on to have a very reliable year. "
THIS is very true...IF I didn't know better, I'd have thought Watson dropped a ton of passes the entire year. This ILLUSION was created by the Networks playing that drop against the Vikings by Watson just about every time he made a catch. Matter of fact, every time Watson would make a play or score a TD, it seemed we'd see that replay from week one.
Leatherhead
June 26, 2023 at 11:34 am
And then there is Marques Valdez Scantling, who absolutely dropped his fair share, and still got a $10 million dollar FA deal. Because drops are subjective. Bombs, caught and dropped, are bigger plays that a drop on 3rd and 7 that kills a drive, although the net effect is pretty similar.
I don't have access to the list at the moment, but if you just subtract Doubs drops from the team total, aren't we pretty much average?
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 07:44 am
LH, MVS had a career catch % of 50%. He did go routes until his last half a season in GB.
He was still very effective in his role to spread out the opposing defense even if he never got targeted, making them put their quickest guy on him. Upon drafting Christian Watson I thought he could be a direct replacement. His catch % is already better, and his route tree considerably more varied. I still think he should be used in that same role, and help scheme other guys open. 4 WRs with similar speed bodes well :)
Qoojo
June 26, 2023 at 03:35 pm
I thought Watson flipped a switch from the Dallas game on. We might remember Watson's drops more because he is so explosive and open.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 07:45 am
I remember his catches and TD streak more :)
mrtundra
June 26, 2023 at 07:17 am
Plus, Love does not have a thumb issue like ARod did. ARod's thumb cost the GBP with his inaccuracy, downfield. Love will be fine. GO PACK, GO!!!
T7Steve
June 26, 2023 at 08:18 am
Didn't (it) seem on short passes he was shot putting the ball at the receivers' knees or ankles all the time too?
Spock
June 26, 2023 at 08:58 am
Agree, T7S, I couldn't believe how bad QB12 was at those last year.
Tundraboy
June 27, 2023 at 02:45 am
Yes. There had to have been 7 or more awful throw/drops mixed in there for sure.
Matt
June 27, 2023 at 05:29 am
That's what I was going to say. Long inaccurate passes are not frustrating. High risk - high reward. But I got mad everytime I saw short, easy, backyard football balls underthrown dramatically, especially to Jones. So many wasted plays.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 07:48 am
MrTundra, AR12's rib injury gets ignored. I've had one where I couldn't sleep for months and quick thinking is the first thing to go. Harder to evaluate but that was certainly a big factor.
Hopefully our O line dominates and keeps JL10 clean. We'd be sunk with all this youth and an inexperienced O line.
WD
June 26, 2023 at 07:20 am
This was a very informative article. Sometimes numbers (and their interpretations) can be boring but they are an important component of a winning football team in terms of the analysis of players.
TxFred
June 26, 2023 at 07:22 am
With this group qb & receivers we'll likely see disappointment drops, poor throws, just misses, amazing catches it's comes with growing together as a new, untested group. Plenty of up-side getting familiar with everyone's skill sets. A ripe opportunity for coaches to train & develop all this potential talent. The ride this year will be fun. So climb aboard and have fun watching this 24 version of the Packers grow & win. GPG!!!!
Savage57
June 26, 2023 at 07:38 am
Yup. We get to watch a team come together, find its identity and plant their flag, one way or the other.
I'm more excited about this coming season than I've been for about the last half dozen because it's not going to be a re-run.
Guam
June 26, 2023 at 08:01 am
A young QB1 and inexperienced WRs will cause all of the above. I just want to see growth over the course of the season.
NickPerry
June 26, 2023 at 09:16 pm
"The ride this year will be fun. So climb aboard and have fun watching this 24 version of the Packers grow & win. GPG!!!!"
The ride this year will be fun. My hope is it's REALLY cooking the last 4 or 5 weeks of the season and carries over to the 2024 season.
We'll also find out a lot about MLF, Joe Barry, and the rest of this staff. IMO both MLF and Barry have a lot to prove with no shortage of talent but a whole LOT of rawness. There's no excuses IMO left for either one.
Either get it done or get the hell out of the way.
TKWorldWide
June 26, 2023 at 07:58 am
Agree. Totally curable with practice and experience.
Could be somewhat along the lines of a batting slump in baseball: just don’t let it get “into your head”. A good QB will frequently go right back to a receiver after a drop. Show trust. Build confidence.
Spock
June 26, 2023 at 09:06 am
"...just don’t let it get “into your head”. Exactly. Davante's problem happened after his severe high ankle sprain robbed him of his "game" (amazing footwork, especially at the line of scrimmage) and he admitted that he was "trying too hard". Eventually, he overcame that.
croatpackfan
June 26, 2023 at 08:25 am
You all forgetting that Jordan Love practice with ones almost whole 2022 season and, plus on that, had practice privately with Aaron Jones, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs.
Yes, there will be missed opportunities, either by drops or by bad throws or by missunderstandings, but there will be, I'm sure, plays we will be talking for weeks after we saw them.
I only pray that injury bug will, mostly, miss Packers this coming season.
Somehow, I forsee the first play vs Bears - Jordan Love to Christian Watson 50 yards down the right line with catch and YAC TD. Wouldn't that be hilarious?
There is also one proverb: "If you shoot into the midday sun, you're bound to miss, but you'll hit further than if you aim at a nearby bush." I hope Packers have this year target at SB, so they should hit further than many expected.
TKWorldWide
June 26, 2023 at 01:48 pm
I have forgotten NOTHING, good sir!
(Other than the stuff I fail to recall.)
T7Steve
June 26, 2023 at 08:32 am
I talked about this in a post last week. I knew we were close to the bottom, but not at THE bottom of the league for drops.
I think it had to do with the unfamiliarity with the throws/thrower. Due to the limited time in practice (which young receivers need the most) with QB1 it was inevitable. All the practices that were missed by QB1, were run with J Love. The second-year receivers have caught more passes (by far) from Jordan in practice than any other QB.
They're going to click this season.
Leatherhead
June 26, 2023 at 09:10 am
Doubs was a Day 3 prospect, and drops were part of his scouting profile. He'll either fix that and be a player for us or he won't. You can be patient with rookies, and even second year guys, but eventually, he has to hang onto the ball.
TKWorldWide
June 26, 2023 at 10:53 am
I think he will. Dedication. Intensity. Concentration.
dobber
June 26, 2023 at 01:16 pm
That's pretty much it.
Lots of guys have some hands issues coming out of college...if you just flip through the draft profiles on NFL.com, I'd guess that almost half the WRs have "fights the football at times" or "focus drops are an issue" in their report. In many cases, they're trying to make plays before they secure the ball. In some cases, it's poor technique or immaturity putting them in an awkward position (e.g. turned around) to make a catch.
They either mature and grow or they find a new job. Jones, Adams--both are good examples of guys who struggled through drops to become quality WR.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 07:58 am
LH, again this is why I hope they start with a game plan that's extremely light on targeting WRs. If they can establish the ability to make shorter plays that rely on a dominant O line, they can give JL10 enough time in the pocket for deep throws. Having both elements working will be REALLY hard for an opposing defense to handle!
Packers0808
June 26, 2023 at 09:37 am
Much of that last year was at the fault of Rodgers, short and low and his outright not caring about young receivers with his his early no show for timing! I expect these guys this year will bmuch more sharper after working with Love!
Leatherhead
June 26, 2023 at 10:16 am
I'm not going to point fingers. I rewatched every possession we had last year, and we had way too many drives not get points. It was a big falloff from previous years, where a higher percentage of drive succeeded, and we scored more points.
Sometimes, it was a drop. Occasionally, a penalty put us in a bad down and distance. But neither of those was the primary reason so many drives failed.
T7Steve
June 26, 2023 at 10:58 am
It used to be called "The Gold Zone".
Imagine the overall improvement scoring even just 10 opening drive TDs would make?
Opens the offense.
Our D (maybe all) plays better with a lead.
Didn't they have at least a 10-game streak in 2020, scoring TDs on opening drives? Someone here can tell me if they want. Don't remember many first drive punts.
dobber
June 26, 2023 at 01:27 pm
An awful lot of short FGs in 2022. Only four teams kicked more FGs inside the 10 than the Packers did last year (Ravens, Niners, Bucs, Chargers)--that doesn't take into account the 4th and goal plays the Packers missed. The Packers played 9 one-score games in 2022 and were 4-5 in those games. Admittedly, several of those games were decided by more than 3 points, but turn 3 or maybe 4 of those short FGs into TDs and they're very likely a playoff team.
stockholder
June 26, 2023 at 10:26 am
Forty drops! Forty Drops? Forty Drops! OMG!
How many wrong Routes? How many Ints in that.
Let's throw in Sacks, Pressures, and the OL failures too.
Rodger’s Thumb. Rodger’s pressure. Rodger’s salary.
Of Course will do better. The blame Game is gone.
Because this is the start of a new season.
A Bargain at QB. And one set of Rbs that scream All-pro.
There is No uncertainty. Only money to be made.
But the issue here is the Talk.
The promise of not dropping sure TDs.
The promise of Jordan Love success.
The promise of OL protection.
The promise of a great Rookie class.
And finally a Defense getting the ball for “Love.”
Doesn’t “sound” like a roller Coastal ride to me..
Just more like a merry-go - round.
Now- I wonder who gets who’s job next.
Leatherhead
June 26, 2023 at 10:36 am
When Love has a better season this than Rodgers did last year, and when the offense scores more points than it did last year, you're going to look foolish, in prose or poetry.
croatpackfan
June 26, 2023 at 10:57 am
He already look foolish!
stockholder
June 26, 2023 at 11:07 am
I hope he does well.
But if he is better.
We will be in the playoffs.
But then you do know the odds of that.
Leatherhead
June 26, 2023 at 12:38 pm
Yeah, 7 out of 16. 44%
I think we'll win the division, and make the playoffs, which will give us a 14% shot at going to the Super Bowl.
Packers0808
June 26, 2023 at 11:04 am
So Sophomoric. Risible!
Spock
June 26, 2023 at 11:34 am
Off topic but much talk about the possibility of a new "team spirit" happening this season makes this story kind of fun: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/belgian-shot-putter-saves-team-fr...
LeotisHarris
June 26, 2023 at 06:06 pm
Great story, Spock! I'll add this story. Ray Ratto wrote a better piece about these young women on The Defector, but that's a pay site. So, Gold Digest it is:
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/meredith-college-saving-golf-team-sarah....
greengold
June 26, 2023 at 07:50 pm
Both great stories, Spock & LeotisHarris!
Less unnecessary pressure will be welcome throughout that entire locker room. I think the fun factor will be through the roof this season.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 08:00 am
That can add to the W column, too
Spock
June 28, 2023 at 12:47 pm
Great story, Leotis. Reminds me of playing golf with my mother. I think her personal best for NINE holes was something like 80, but she loved the game. I'll always remember her wearing this watch like device on her wrist and clicking after every shot, never cheating on counting missed swings or shanked shots. She got quite the workout golfing! Fond memories. Thanks for the link.
greengold
June 26, 2023 at 06:22 pm
Allen Lazard had the #2 highest drop total amongst WRs with 6. Cobb had 2. Watkins had 2. Winfrey had 1 drop.
Both Tonyan and Lewis had 1 drop each.
That’s 12 drops no longer with the team. But, we unloaded a QB1 who grew more & more inaccurate over the last 3 years. He was struggling with accuracy before the thumb injury. We all saw timing of his throws had also become adversely affected.
Now we have a young, accurate arm in Love, and I believe that accuracy will only grow in the years to come as he gets to know more of the new receivers, now & in the future. Common sense says he should improve with more experience as QB1. If he doesn’t? That would indicate bigger problems per more common sense.
Love will be fine. All receiving targets will likely be getting better themselves with the learning curve lessened over time + familiarity. Love should become more accurate by Week 3-4 on throughout our season as his own comfort zone becomes established.
SicSemperTyrannis
June 27, 2023 at 08:12 am
It will be very interesting to see JL10's accuracy develop. I think good in game coaching means not trying to get him to thread needles like AR12; he was incredible in that regard. Even if JL10 never approaches that he can still have a more successful career but our O will have to be substantially different.
D.A.17 did a 4.56 40. Getting wide open was rare, and usually meant blown coverage. He thrived in tight windows. Grant DeBose at 4.57 might never do so well simply if JL10 shouldn't target tight windows like that. That's ok, we have 4 WRs with 4.3x speed.
I just don't want to see short targets at or behind the LOS, 5 yards in front of it please! YAC machines turning those into 15 yard gains wins games. And that stuff working opens up the deep ball, too.
No reason we can't develop 10 reliable targets by 2025, just with players currently on the roster.
greengold
June 27, 2023 at 09:07 am
SST, I think we'll see the Packers offering more mismatches than we did during our last real offensive juggernaut through the air with DD, Jennings, Jordy & Jones as targets.
I really do think this is going to be rocket fuel on O, and that we're going to catch this NFL completely off guard. This 2023 Packers offense has a real opportunity to be in the realm of "The Fastest Game On Turf," we saw with the St. Louis Rams. I feel they are going to be that impactful. Maybe more.
It's a young, fast, sizable, talented, motivated core group looking to make just that kind of splash. Mismatches abound. LaFleur's gotta be like that kid in his room in Animal House... "Thank you, God!"
Less than 4 games into our season the ESPN talking heads will be like, "OH!! THIS is 'why?'!!!"
Was going to rip on Orlovsky, but... checked myself....! YAY!!!! Wow:
https://youtu.be/eKSn1V2GimY