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Ross' 53-man Packers Roster Prediction 2.0

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Ross' 53-man Packers Roster Prediction 2.0

As soon as the 2016 NFL Draft ended, I published a "way too early" 53 man roster prediction, which you can find here. It was certainly knee-jerk and no actual football had been played.  Now we've seen a little football.  The Packers have gone throgh OTAs and a few weeks of training camp, last night's preseason game autograph session notwithstanding.

I had a chance to be on the Packers sidelines for the first few days of camp and have been paying attention to the beat writer's and I think I'm ready to refine my 53 man roster.  I'll release one more prediction after the third preseason game and include a practice squad projection.

Quarterbacks (2)

  • Aaron Rodgers
  • Brett Hundley

Running Backs (4)

  • Eddie Lacy
  • Aaron Ripkowski
  • James Starks
  • John Crockett

Wide Receivers (6)

  • Jordy Nelson
  • Randall Cobb
  • Davante Adams
  • Trevor Davis
  • Ty Montgomery
  • Jeff Janis

Tight Ends (4)

  • Jared Cook
  • Richard Rodgers
  • Justin Perillo
  • Mitchell Henry

Offensive Linemen (9)

  • David Bakhtiari
  • Josh Sitton
  • Corey Linsley
  • TJ Lang
  • Bryan Bulaga
  • JC Tretter
  • Jason Spriggs
  • Kyle Murphy
  • Lane Taylor

Defensive Linemen (6)

  • Mike Daniels
  • Kenny Clark
  • Letroy Guion
  • Dean Lowry
  • Christian Ringo
  • Brian Price

Elephant ends (3)

  • Julius Peppers
  • Datone Jones
  • Nick Perry

Outside Linebackers (4)

  • Clay Matthews
  • Jayrone Elliot
  • Kyler Fackrell
  • Lerentee McCray

Inside Linebackers (4)

  • Sam Barrington
  • Jake Ryan
  • Blake Martinez
  • Joe Thomas

Cornerbacks (4)

  • Damarious Randall
  • Sam Shields
  • Quentin Rollins
  • Ladarius Gunter

Safeties (2)

  • HaHa Clinton-Dix
  • Chris Banjo

Hybrid DBs (2)

  • Morgan Burnett
  • Micah Hyde

Specialists (3)

  • Mason Crosby
  • Tim Masthay
  • Rick Lovato

Notes: I thought from the beginning of the season that John Kuhn would not return, and he has signed a contract with the New Orleans Saints.  I maintain my belief that Jared Abbrederis will not make the squad.  Trevor Davis has more upside and is cost-controlled for longer.  Jeff Janis is going to make the team no matter what strictly based on his special teams ability.  Whether you believe he can contribute on offense doesn't really matter at this point.  The team obviously believes in Lane Taylor more than I do, as he was the first guard off the bench.  I think either McCrae or Price will be released when Mike Pennel returns.  Watch out for Mitchell Henry potentially in the tight end group, possibly at the expense of Kennard Backman.  I was hoping Peter Mortell would unseat Tim Masthay.  It seems unlikely at best.

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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem 

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (45) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

sonomaca's picture

Monty is likely going to the 6-week PUP. Does that create an additional roster spot for Abby, at least until Monty returns?

Ross Uglem's picture

I sat in on McCarthy's first press conference and he told us that all of the PUP players would return during training camp (as in before the first game). Until I hear something different I'm operating on that premise.

sonomaca's picture

Only 4 corners. Hmmm. Corners are injured early an often. I know Hyde becomes your 5th corner, but still. Plus, the Packers love to develop young corners.

staffordsneckfat's picture

Agreed, would like to see Robertson Daniel here as well. Even with Janis making a contribution on special teams, I think only keeping 8 DB's would leave Zook's unit pretty thin.

stic56's picture

You are correct. Price and Thomas will be gone. CB's Daniel and Hawkins will make the team. IF the Packers bring Pennel back. Ringo will be released.

ackjack81's picture

I think Thomas makes the team given the depth at ILB. I wouldn't be surprised if Barrington starts the year on the PUP list. His foot injury occurred week 1 last season and he's still not ready to practice/play. Even if/when he is ready, he may not be the same player he used to be. And to be fair it's not like he was a world-beater prior to the injury either. He was an up-and-coming player with a decent amount of potential, but still had a long ways to go to prove he was a consistent, capable starter.

I agree with you about Daniel and Price though (Price is a better candidate for the practice squad). If the Packers keep 6 CBs on the roster (7 if you include Hyde) I would suspect Makinton Dorleant makes the team over Hawkins.

ackjack81's picture

I stand corrected about Barrington and the PUP list. Still think Thomas makes the roster though.

Packer_Pete's picture

What happened to the 'Micah Hyde' position group?

Bearmeat's picture

Unless Montgomery gets on the field, and I mean FAST, he's going to PUP. Abby will make the squad I'd bet.

I really am not sure about Bryan Price or Perillo either. I'd take 7 WRs over any of those guys.

Rest looks about right.

Ross Uglem's picture

Montgomery off the PUP

al bundy's picture

Eliminate anyone on the PUP list. Jordy will be back when we see it. Ditto Montgomery, Barrington, Clark. As they say in Wiscon, nerver make plans for eating fish until you caught them.
The way Mike M covers up real injury issues I plan on nothing. All these guys could miss the whole year when your dealing with Mike and his assessment he wants you to hear.

stockholder's picture

Instead of Daniel at CB, I'm looking at Warren Gatewood. I am not a Thomas or Brown Fan either. I say Mathews, and the Burnett experiment, will change that ILB position. Opening the door for another safety, maybe Kentrell Brice.

PaulRosik's picture

People want you gone because you are an anti-Packer fan. If the Packers win or do well you never comment and you only surface when there are complaints and joy (for you) to be had in a loss. You are only happy if the Packers lose and you live in mortal fear of them doing well.

stockholder's picture

No , I think Mathews will be playing more than Burnett at ILB. Burnett is an experiment. His position is still SS. Thomas is not fast enough! You are going to see the best pass defense in the NFL. To make that happen Thomas needs to go.

dobber's picture

You make an interesting proposition with Linsley on PUP with his hammy. With Tretter around and healthy, this would give Linsley time to get that injury right.

That said, putting Abbrederis on IR is ridiculous unless you see that as a way to hide him for a year. If you're "projecting an injury"? Well, then let's just say I'd like to draft after you in an FFL.

dobber's picture

"Better than 75% chance he gets knocked out again."

This projection of future injury coming from cow's "crystal udder".

"He's too little."

At 6'1", 195, he's a pretty average-sized WR.

Ross Uglem's picture

Cook not PUP or IR, Montgomery not PUP, Barrington not PUP

Oppy's picture

I'm still puzzled by how many Packers fans discount Abbrederis.

QB's love WR's who play the game like Abbrederis does.

croatpackfan's picture

You are not alone in this feeling. To be honest, Abby is the best WR Packers has at the moment. Yes, things will be changed, but to be so evil to wish and predict soembody's injury, just to be able to say: "What I was saying!" is so low and devilish. Shame on you people. You call it reality, I call that selfish... And I also want to apologize if any of you find offended. That was not my intention to offend any of you...

Beep's picture

Too many Badger homers are cheering for Abbrederis blindly out of pride for Wisconsin. You can't knock his work ethic, but he's not as physically gifted as some of our other receivers. He's definitely on the fringe of making the team. I wouldn't be surprised either way when they go down to 53.

Oppy's picture

He's not near being on the fringe IMO... he's currently playing as the third best WR on the roster. I think Davante Adams has more potential, but it hasn't been realized (yet! I'm still pulling for Adams). Abby is a player, nothing fringe about him. He simply needs to stay healthy.

dobber's picture

According to Cow, Abby has a 75% chance of getting hurt and missing the season...I hope he makes his saving throw against bovine curses..

GatorJason's picture

Barclay makes 10th OL.
Montgomery on PUP
Abby is 4th receiver
Janis may get bounced to S if he does progress as WR
Perillo is 3rd and final TE
Price or Ringo but not both on DL
Daniel as 5th corner
Masthay retains P position

Big Moe's picture

I agree with Abby as the 4th with Monty on the pup, he's always where AR wants him to be, it will be a career year for Abby and for you fantasy guys the sleeper pick of your drafts, Go Pack!!!!

Nick Perry's picture

He'd be picked up in a second, suggesting he wouldn't is just crazy talk.

dobber's picture

As the #3 WR attached to Aaron Rodgers? Yes, people will draft him.

Thegreatreynoldo's picture

One less TE.
One more OL (I can deal with 9 OL tho)
WR same #, but Davis to PS, Abby on 53.

Net: 0/+1 (but perhaps OL changes based on play)

One less DL
One less LB - probably Joe Thomas
One more CB

Net: 1 or possibly 2 roster spot goes to BPA.

No point in loading up on TEs who can't play - I see no sense of having more at our least talented position. 3 TEs at most on the 53, one on the PS. I've flirted with keeping just 2 on the 53 man roster if Backman and Henry don't show up. I am just looking ahead to 2017 in my desire to keep one more guard. 6 DL is a lot, considering 2 probably can't play early when we need them. Extra CB subject to having someone play well and force his way onto the 53. I try to keep Joe Thomas, whom I like, but he is on my bubble.

Colin_C's picture

Longtime follower here, first post!

Anyways, I'd say that from what I've heard, Daniel has been impressive since Whitt started working with him, so I think he'll be on the 53. I can't see any way right now that Davis makes it over Abby, and I'd be really shocked if we kept 4 TE's.

Finwiz's picture

I think there are more guys going on PUP or injured reserve to start the season than we know. Davis will be hard to get through waivers to get to the PS, not to mention they drafted him for speed, and they need it. Given they rarely cut draft choices, and he has the "field stretching" speed, my guess is Davis is a virtual lock unless he can't catch, or gets injured in preseason. As much as I hate to say it, I think it looks tough for Abby unless they keep 7 WR, or multiple receivers end up on PUP/injured reserve. (Nelson/Montgomery both)

RossMC's picture

You say Peter Mortell unseating Masthay is unlikely at best and you still have him on your roster prediction. I think this roster prediction is lazy at best. You claim you've been paying attention to beat writers but this is almost the exact prediction you had last time. Same biases with or against players like Brian price and Mitchell Henry (with) or Abbrederis (against), regardless of the camps they're having. Come on Ross, don't shame the name mang!

croatpackfan's picture

I agree with you that Jeff will make 53. But when we are talking about WR, not gunner or KR/PR position, all of them knows what Jeff lacks.

And I'm sure he will learn in near future, or he will really stay only for ST purposes...

croatpackfan's picture
ackjack81's picture

I agree with you whole-heartedly. Janis made the team in 2014 mainly because he was a draft pick, and in 2015 because of his performance in the preseason. Prior to last season's Divisional playoff game really his only contributions in the regular season came on special teams as a gunner. And if you don't count the two Hail Mary's at the end of the Arizona game, his stat line for that game was 5-44-1. Not to mention during that game he clearly ran a lazy route in the red zone on a pass directed towards him, which Rodgers was not at all pleased with.

While I don't always agree with arguments that discount statistical "outliers" I do think it applies in this case (with the Divisional playoff game). But like DesertPackFan said I hope he starts to earn some snaps on offense and continue to develop as a WR.

lucky953's picture

Jarret Bush 2.0

dobber's picture

Billy Schroeder 2.0.

dobber's picture

Not until his SIXTH season...

http://www.nfl.com/player/billschroeder/2502858/profile

Barring catastrophic injury and assuming he continues to grow as an ST player, Janis will probably last that long in GB and will have every opportunity to continue to grow as a WR.

Ross Uglem's picture

Florio writing something that disagrees with something I believe is almost always going to solidify that belief.

Cathy Riccio's picture

What about Jared Abbaderis? He was strong in a couple of practices that I was in attendance.

lucky953's picture

Agree with a lot of the commentary: Thomas was an emergency signing last year and with Martinez here, he'll be cut. Abbredaris will be a more reliable target than Davis (Rodgers has to have somebody who can catch the ball). No way Gunter is cut. I believe Ted will add a veteran DL to the group. Don't think they keep 4 TEs - their ST play has been nothing special. Hoping for Nelson, Cook, and Linsley back. I doubt Montgomery can ever be an effective player with that injury. I expect Davis will get a tryout as a gunner. If he's 80% as effective as Janis, then his receiving ability may get him that spot.

dobber's picture

What Janis has that Davis doesn't is strength. At this point, Davis isn't strong enough to make it as a gunner on a regular basis. He'd be the guy you see being ridden out of bounds on every punt play and not making it back in to factor in on a play. Just as we worry about whether or not he can get a release in press on offense, he isn't going to get off the line as a gunner unless he gets stronger.

IN EDIT: Sorry, DPF, I see you posted essentially the same comment yesterday on a different thread. I bow to your getting there first!

lou's picture

I realize this is Version 2 and we have not seen the first pres-season snap yet but it will be fun to compare this with the actual 53 when it is established. Recently I have seen Montgomery give more info on his ankle situation and the word "micro fracture surgery" is the work he used and that is a BIG RED FLAG. This kid flashed big time day one, picked up the system, good size/quickness, and a feel for yards after the catch. Not many pro athletes have gotten back to 100% after micro fracture surgery, lets hope this kid can do it. Just wondering if anyone else has seen the same info on Montgomery.

Amanofthenorth's picture

Tough calls, thankfully packer coaches get it right for the most part.

lucky953's picture

If only they had cut Bostick at the beginning of the season instead of the end......sigh

Amanofthenorth's picture

Uggh...that moment pops in to my mind out of the blue too often.

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