Packers at 49ers: Gameday Preview - 2023 Divisional Round

The 49ers have built a super team and reigned as a Super Bowl favorite all year. The Packers have picked themselves out of the gutter and are looking like nobody's underdog. This clash should be exciting.

The last time the Packers played the 49ers, Joe Barry's defense put on a masterclass, holding the San Francisco offense to 6 points in the snow.

It wasn't enough, though, as mistakes on offense and a brutal gaffe on special teams led to a 13-10 loss, marking the 4th straight time the 49ers beat the Packers in the playoffs.

But, in all 4 of the games, the Packers had a different quarterback. Maybe with Jordan Love at the helm, the Packers can get back to their winning ways. 

 

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Jordan Love played out of his mind in Dallas.

Jordan Love played out of his mind in Dallas.

The whole offense went absolutely bonkers in Dallas.

And now, they need to do it in San Francisco, against a defense that ranks 3rd in scoring, but might rank 1st in talent.

Their defensive line includes Nick Bosa and Chase Young, who were both number 2 overall draft picks (Clelin Ferrell was a number 4 overall pick, but has been ruled out with an injury). Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw were also picked in the middle of the 1st round. They also have Javon Hargrave and Randy Gregory.

That's just their defensive line.

This is the strength of their defense. These guys are all big. They can all stop the run. They can all rush the passer. And they get to rotate and stay fresh all game because of their incredible depth.

Green Bay's offensive line will learn their place in the order tonight.

And behind that line? All Pro Fred Warner playing linebacker next to Dre Greenlaw, who also received some All Pro votes.

Then, there's the secondary, led by second team All Pro cornerback Chavarius Ward and safety Tashaun Gipson (who also received All Pro votes). They led the NFL in interceptions this year with 22.

This defense is ridiculous and there's no formula to beating them.

Run the ball effectively and pass the ball effectively, that's the way to beat them.

Fortunately for the Packers, they have as good a chance as any team to do that.

Aaron Jones has virtually no chance to break out for another monster game against this 49ers front. But he can do enough to keep them honest. If AJ Dillon can play, he could also help soften the front with some punishing runs

From there, Jordan Love can try to work his magic.

The deep receiving corps have proven difficult to cover. Despite the 49ers star power in the defensive backfield, they don't have the depth to guard the Packers top 5 receiving options at the same time. And while the pass rush will be fierce, Jordan Love has the ability to move the pocket, throw on the run, and generate torque using a scissor kick, so he doesn't have to step into the pass rush.

If the Packers are going to win today, it will be in large part because Jordan Love delivered in the face of pressure and the Packers receivers got open on some Matt LaFleur playcalling gems.

If it rains, the Packers are going to really hope they have AJ Dillon. Not only would they want to have extra carries to go around, but his size and style lends itself to running in the mud. We haven't seen Jordan Love or these young receivers in the rain, yet, so we don't know exactly what to expect. It should be noted that Jordan Love has 10.5" hands, which are pretty good-sized. For reference, Aaron Rodgers had 10.125" hands and fared pretty well passing in wet conditions.

 

WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE

The Packers defense has played surprisingly well down the stretch, even since Matt LaFleur said that he would be more involved on that side of the ball.

In their last two playoff games, they've played downright dominant.

But tonight, they have their toughest task yet.

Brock Purdy was off the charts of most analytics at quarterback.

Christian McCaffrey was an All Pro at running back this year, and has been one of the top weapons in the game annually since entering the league.

He's getting his blocks from fullback Kyle Juszczyk and left tackle Trent Williams, who were both All Pros this year, too.

Tight end George Kittle was an All Pro for his blocking, too, as well as his great abilities as a receiver.

Speaking of receivers, 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was a second team All Pro this year, and versatile receiver Deebo Samuel also received some All Pro votes this year after earning first team All Pro honors a couple years ago.

See the pattern?

This offense is every bit as star-studded as the defense. They ranked 1st in yards per drive and 1st in points per drive. They scored 30 points 9 times.

How to stop them?

You can't.

But you can slow them down. And when you slow them down, you can beat them.

The 49ers scored 20 or fewer points 5 times this year, and they lost every one of those games.

What's the secret?

Turnovers.

In their 4 legitimate losses (no including Week 18 when they rested starters), they turned the ball over 12 times.

The Packers haven't been great at generating turnovers this year, but they managed a couple interceptions in Dallas. If Jaire Alexander can play, that would certainly help their cause. Whether he does or doesn't, the Packers will still need inspired efforts from Carrington Valentine and Darnell Savage.

Coverage has to hold up and the pass rush has to hit home. Pass rush depth took a big blow when Kingsley Enagbare tore his ACL last week, but this unit is still strong with Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, and Lukas Van Ness.

The Packers tendency towards acquiring larger ends to help with contain will help today, as Brock Purdy has made a lot of plays out of the pocket.

Keeping him contained will allow Quay Walker and De'Vondre Campbell to bring inside pressure. 

The linebacker duo will also be critical in containing the run game. The 49ers are the best in the league at getting tough yards up the middle, but they haven't faced many inside linebacker tandems with the size and ability of Walker and Campbell. 

One potential wild card on defense could be Keisean Nixon. His hustle was noticeable in Dallas and his tackling with full-on clamp-city. Games like that from role players are what championship runs are built on.

If it rains, as expected, the 49ers will lean heavily on Christian McCaffrey. That could be bad news for this Packers defense. However, it could make the 49ers one-dimensional. Brock Purdy has 9.25" hands, which is pretty small by NFL standards. If he if forced to throw on the run, he could put up some interceptable balls.

 

OTHER NOTES

The 49ers are 0-2 in their last two home games.

The Packers are 2-0 in their last two road games.

Jerry Rice fumbled.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

Maybe the 49ers got rusty on a bye following a week where they rested starters.

Maybe the Packers can ride the momentum of the Dallas game all the way to the west coast.

Maybe Jordan Love, who has looked unstoppable, will carry this team to enough points to win.

Maybe the Packers defense, who has played great in their two playoff games under Joe Barry, can surprise us all again.

The Packers have a chance. The last month taught me to not doubt that.

But I still don't think the Packers will pull this one out, even if the rain helps. San Francisco is just loaded and rested. I think that will be the difference tonight.

Packers 27, 49ers 33

 

 

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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

__________________________

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Comments (19)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
porupack's picture

January 20, 2024 at 07:12 am

Hey Bruce, that scenario you summarize is like the script for the first 30 minutes of a Marvel movie, the overwhelming odds. I agree. It seems like one of the most stacked teams that I can recall. As long as GB plays smart, great game plan, and everyone plays their heart out, then the season can conclude as a high success. Whether GB exceeded expectations and are playing with house money on the win-loss record, it's all about the next game. Just play that one well. So the drama is about to unfold! Greenbay wins. What the heck.

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HawkPacker's picture

January 20, 2024 at 07:52 am

I really can't see anything in your article that I disagree with.

I certainly agree that we have a chance in this game but their appears to be a lot of advantages for SF.

Should be a fun game to watch and just want them to play well--win or lose.

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mnbadger's picture

January 20, 2024 at 10:59 am

I see one glaring thing wrong -
Packers 26 - 4t whiners 23!
LET'S BLANKING GO AND KICK SOME BLANKING BLANK!
GPG!

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mrtundra's picture

January 20, 2024 at 07:56 am

Where is your faith? Packers 31, SF 23. We keep shocking the world! GO PACK, GO!!!

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LambeauPlain's picture

January 20, 2024 at 08:00 am

We all marvel at the flywheel effect of the improving Pass Offense Matt, his staff, Love & young playmakers are displaying on the field.

However, the last few weeks, the Run Offense has shown up as a secret, hidden weapon no one saw coming.

The catalyst for this sudden explosion of production has been Show Time Jones. While solid run game stems from great blocking...I also believe a great RB makes the OL better...not just "look better"...but "play better". I am confident the entire IOL playbook is open now that Jonesy is back healthy. The wide zone run blocking attack now includes run plays in the game script that simply would not be called for AJ Dillon or Taylor.

I don't ascribe that the Pack cannot run on the Niners. I think they can...and if they do, look out! And I expect Jones will figure more heavily in the pass game too. He needs the ball in a variety of plays.

Regarding Purdy, "keeping him contained will allow Quay Walker and De'Vondre Campbell to bring inside pressure."

That would be nice for a change. Unfortunately, Barry rarely does that. The ILBs are routinely playing way off the ball in zone have no opportunity to bring inside pressure. Their job is to get a tackle after a 5+ yard gain.

Also using Walker as a pass rusher has worked well the very few times it has been called. On pass plays, his size and speed is too often wasted covering WRs through his middle "prevent (the win) zone. Walker is exhibit one showing Barry is unwilling or unable to utilize his players' individual talents to build a synergistic defense.

I hope the Packers DC is unrecognizable tonight. I hope we see pressure D the entire game. Might give up some chunk plays but also rattle Purdy, create 3 & outs and best of all, turnovers.

Let 'em play!

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Since'61's picture

January 20, 2024 at 08:04 am

The Packers will need to play a nearly perfect game to defeat the 49ers. However if the forecast is true and the game is played in the rain the weather could be an equalizer. Wet conditions could slow down the 49ers pass rushers. If the Packers OL can win their side of the LOS the Packers chances will increase. At this point we don't how well the Packers receiving corps will play in the rain. Jones and Dillon have experience in bad weather and that could be another factor that works in the Packers favor on offense.

I have no idea how well the SF offense performs in the rain. I'm assuming that McCaffrey and Kittle have their share of experience playing in wet conditions. As for Purdy and the other SF receivers I have no clue.

The Packers defense plays better with a lead so if the offense can establish an early lead that will help. Playing against the 49ers offense is a big step up in class for the Packers defense.

Other factors to consider are STs. Footballs tend to do funny things when they get slippery. And who knows how the wet weather will affect the kickers and punters for both teams. Has Carlson kicked in the rain this season? That could become a key factor in this game.

Wet weather tends to hold down crowd noise which could be an unexpected benefit for the Packers. We'll see. Regardless of the result it has been a great ride with this season's Packers. Play for the full 60 minutes. Take no prisoners and Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61

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SinceLombardi's picture

January 20, 2024 at 08:10 am

There are so many scenarios, Last week I wore my #92 Reggie road jersey
( got it at Reggie’s pro shop )
This week I think I have to break out the #5 Hornung road jersey.
Vince Lombardi T shirt for the NFC Championship and my 75th anniversary #66 home jersey for the Super Bowl.
I have done my part. Lol

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mnbadger's picture

January 20, 2024 at 11:03 am

thank you, we need every bit of effort from the entire Packer Nation!
House money is more fun to spend because there's nothing to lose.
Let's make it rain $ tonight!
GPG!

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SinceLombardi's picture

January 20, 2024 at 06:31 pm

Decided to go back to back with the #92

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Houndog's picture

January 20, 2024 at 08:20 am

Nice analogy, Bruce, and almost painful to read.
Yes, the 49ers are playing with a stacked deck, and they deserve credit for their drafting and FA acquisitions, they've done a good job. Now throw it all out the window!
Purdy's hands are literally the same size as some guy named Mahomes, and nobody would even suggest that to be an issue, throw it out!
The 9ers have a bunch of All-pros, the Packers have none, throw it out!
Today is about today, what's happened in past years means nothing, and what's happened in recent weeks means little-to-nothing. Throw that out too!
Today we'll see if our offense is as good as we've thought and they've looked the past few weeks.
Today we'll see if our defense can play against a really good offense with a lot of weapons and stay in the game.
Today we'll see if LaFleur can 'Coach-em-up' for what could arguably be the biggest game of his Packer career thus far. No Aaron Rodgers, no predetermined bullshit, no 'where's Davante'? This is MLF's team and MLF's game now! Can he and his staff repeat last week's game planning?
At times I think the Pack has no chance, and then I think "Hell yes, they have a chance, they just have to play their absolute best.
All 53 on the roster must 'Bring It', and bring it all! And let the chips fall where they may.
GPG!

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MainePackFan's picture

January 20, 2024 at 08:23 am

Good article Bruce. I think the 49ers will focus on stopping Aaron Jones, clogging up the middle of the field, bringing 4-man pressure and forcing Love to beat them on the boundaries. MLF's game plan will determine whether this game is close, or turns into a blowout. He has to have an answer to Shanahan's game plan. I can see them having success getting the ball to Jones on screen passes.

"Jerry Rice fumbled.'

NFL Network had a replay of that game on this morning. It's still a fumble all these years later !! Madden commented that plays like that are why we need instant replay., and that he believed it would be voted in the next year.

BTW. I almost forgot how amazing that Packers team was !!!

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Houndog's picture

January 20, 2024 at 08:59 am

Maine,
"Jerry Rice fumbled.'
Yes, he did!
The NFL had actually experimented with a limited Instant Replay system in 1986 through 1991. The current system was put into use in 1999.
The year before Rice's fumble Holmgren, who was on the Competition Committee at that time, voted against bringing it back.
I wonder how he feels today?

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J-Rome's picture

January 20, 2024 at 09:20 am

The 49ers have a bunch of pro bowlers. The Packers don’t. That’s just because no one knows who they are. Tonight is their chance to show everyone who they are. Give them nothing, but take everything. Sparta kick the 9ers into the pit where all the other teams who underestimated the Packers wound up. Go Pack Go!!

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uschewy1's picture

January 20, 2024 at 10:17 am

There are those team that even from watching the game on a TV, you hear how hard the defense hits. San Francisco along with Tampa Bay are two of them. I swear sometimes I can feel the hits Green Bay Offensive players get subjected to. We will need Jones to hold onto the ball. They will try and hurt that man as they do every year. I think that is why I may agree with the author on using Dillon some as well, 226 pound Emanuel Wilson. Our biggest asset is all our receiver weapons. If Watson was to have a 1,2,3 game and Reed, Wicks, Doubs, Tuck Norris (aka Tuker Kraft) Melton, Musgrave contribute points and production on 3rd downs... we can possibly protect Jones and assist him in having an 80 yard game with a TD.

If it rains, Purdy got small hands and will lose that ball. We need to capitalize on those hypotheticals.

Go pack go

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

January 20, 2024 at 10:58 am

Well, we're all set for the game already. Early morning shower, big breakfast, and even the dog has his Packers shirt on with his 00 number on it. Too bad I can't post a picture here, but he is a fan as well and sits right besides me during games and watches the TV as well. He just doesn't quite understand the excitement part of it when we explode on an exciting play.

I realize we are underdogs, but it's not the first time we have overcome odds. I just hope the team and individual players give everything they've got for a full 60 minutes. This has been a Cinderella season where we have exceed all expectations so why not shoot for the moon.

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NitschkeFromTheGrave's picture

January 20, 2024 at 10:59 am

Just don't get blown out, a loss in a close game, I'm good with. We gave it our best and we got something but if we get SMOKED.... it raises a lot of questions.
A win and we all dance nakid and hi-5.
Give em hell guys.... GPG

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

January 20, 2024 at 12:04 pm

I haven't bet a game in 2 years, but I have called a few Winners here and there. I won't try to call this one, but I'll tell you how I would look at it. All the Betting seems to favor San Francisco. The 49's are 9 1/2 point Favorites. The Money Line is San Francisco --437, GB +336. For those of you who don't know, that means to win $100 on SF you need to bet $437. If you bet $100 on GB, you would win $336. No points involved. I'm sure you would say, Who in their right mind would bet $437 to win $100. That's how you & I think. The Big Money would lay $4370 to win $1000. No Points involved. I don't see very many $1000 bets to win $3360 going on GB. I'm not confident enough to call this game. Two years ago I would have jumped all over SF with these lines, because of AR. To my thinking the money would have gone to GB. If you want to know who is going to Win this game, it's Las Vegas. You guy's are forgetting the Biggest factor in this game. This game is GB's Super Bowl. For what it's worth, they will be more up for this game than either of the next two. There are a number of things going against GB in this game. It's their 2ond game on the road. Not Good!! Experience, Not Good!! If you're going to Bet, you have to go against the $$$$$. If I had to guess, I'd say the money is going on SF. That's just my opinion. One thing for certain, Vegas will take the lion share of the betting. I don't know how they do it, but they already have these lines set to get the money going to the side they want. I've posted a couple of times on here, Wayne Root, one of the Best Handicappers in the country said, If you are ever watching a New York Marathon, & you see hundreds of runners all going in one direction, & you see one lonely runner going the opposite way, That Will Be Me. It's not 100%, but it's worked pretty well for me since the 80's. Taryn, if you read this, chime in here. I respect your opinion. Hope I'm seeing this game Right. GO PACK
LVT

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Oppy's picture

January 20, 2024 at 12:23 pm

"I don't know how they do it, but they already have these lines set to get the money going to the side they want."

LVT, I'm still amazed that old sharps like yourself still don't get how the game works- here in this one sentence you provide the answer but then you ask the question anyways... that just baffles me. Vegas sets lines- and then shifts lines- to attract the money to balance the books. That's it. That's what they do. If the public perception is strongly in favor of SF, they make it less attractive for bets to be placed on SF, and more attractive for bettors to place money on GB.. If too much money swings one way or the other, the lines shift. That's all there is to it. They don't predict games, they predict how bettors view the games, what bettors risk tolerance is, and then set lines to draw the money.

We will never see eye to eye on this, but none the less, I am genuinely happy to see you post after what seems to be a long absence. I hope you are well and enjoying this young upstart Packers season.

GPG

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LASVEGAS-TOM's picture

January 20, 2024 at 12:58 pm

OPPY, You're wrong, but you are how Vegas wants Betters to think. That's how they build those Big Beautiful Hotels. At least we're Friends. I'll never convince you that Vegas does not try to even out the money. Do you think last week the money was even on the Cowboys & GB. I don't think so. Anyway, I can't convince too many other people either. It worked for me. I don't know who is going to win this game, but I've won alot of games, when they seemed one sided, like when Seattle was a powerhouse & I called GB & won. The whole world was on Seattle. Was I just lucky. Why does the wrong team seem to win so many games. I shouldn't of posted today. I don't know anything about either of these teams. Hope I guessed Right. GO PACK
LVT

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