Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 1715 - Packers Draft Preview - Bijan Robinson & Jahmyr Gibbs

On today's show, Paul Bretl & Mark Eckel take a look at the top running backs in the 2023 Draft, including Bijan Robinson & Jahmyr Gibbs. Enjoy!

On today's show, Paul Bretl & Mark Eckel take a look at the top running backs in the 2023 Draft, including Bijan Robinson & Jahmyr Gibbs. Enjoy!
 
 

 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (25)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
stockholder's picture

April 06, 2023 at 10:59 am

We need a back. Take the best.
And were good for 5 years.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:11 pm

I know you have this love affair for Bijan but taking a RB in R1 is a waste of a pick.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 06, 2023 at 11:25 am

Would not have any hesitation pulling the trigger on Bijan at #15, or even #13 if given the choice. Guy is a generational RB who would provide instantaneous offense where via running, or receiving.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:15 pm

Waste of a pick and he isn't a generational talent. He isn't even as good as JT was in college and JT was an R2 pick.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 06, 2023 at 03:01 pm

Disagree!
He sat the all-time NCAA record last year for missed tackles with 104. You should do some research.

Should the Packers draft him they could be very creative with him in the slot, as well as out of the backfield. To get value from him in year 1, with AJ on the team they would need to be creative to get him on the field. He is a damn good receiver & one hell of a running back who would be multi-faceted having a huge impact on offense.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 03:33 pm

Cool most missed tackles....He also had a lower rushing average, much fewer yards, and fewer TDs. He is not worth an R1, no RB is worth an R1. Pretty much everyone knows that RBs have a very high injury rate and using an R1 on them is no longer worthwhile.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 06, 2023 at 05:57 pm

Who in the hell is JT? Doublej, do you even research players? Or a better question is do you understand what makes a player good at his position? Whether its a RB, WR, TE or whichever position. There are really smart people that evaluate college football players for a living that have Bijan Robinson rated as high as the 3rd best player in this draft at any position. He is the consensus best RB by a big margin. Because he does everything great that a RB needs to do. The salary cap works in the NFL. Thats why Aaron Jones and other players won't be Green Bay Packers forever.

Part of the drafting process is to replace players you have lost or are about to lose. Like Aaron Jones. Or maybe Dillon. Or Bahktiari. Or Aaron Rodgers. Bottom line is Bijan Robinson is an upgrade over a player we are going to lose next year.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 07:59 pm

Well JT stands for Jonathan Taylor and that is what he has been called in many outlets since his college days. You have just shown that the person who doesn't know football is you. Thank you come again.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 06, 2023 at 11:32 am

I think you guys are being missing the boat in your Bijan discussion. Do you not think or realize what an upgrade Robinson would be over AJ? And that is saying something because Jones is a very good RB. Robinson is exactly what you hope your 1st round pick would be- a gamechanger.

What makes the idea of picking Robinson an even better deal is what you could get for Jones by trading him before the end of the 1st round. How many calls would Green Bay get right away asking for Jones? Really good chance Buffalo is the first call and we get a 2nd round pick offer plus maybe more. I am a big fan of trading back to later in the first round or early 2nd round and gain picks. We have to do this to fill the holes we have. Thats exactly what would happen if we pick Bijan @ #15, we get to keep the pick, get a game changing player, score a high pick as if we traded back, and gain some cap space by trading a player we are going to lose next year anyway.

That is called a high level win win win win. Thats 4 wins in one pick.

I see only one way they should pass on Bijan @ #15, and that is if they are offered something better than a 1st and 2nd round pick from a team wanting to trade up and pick the RB. If we could get a package of a 2023 1st rounder, a 2023 2nd rounder and maybe a 4th or 5th, that would be a big incentive to trade #15. We miss out on trading Jones and gaining whatever salary cap relief we would gain. Trading him now while he is healthy and we gain cap room would be a big deal. We will pick an RB to replace Jones in this draft.

Bijan and Hendon Hooker are the 2 players I think teams will for sure trade back up in the draft to pick. Thats why I think Green Bay is bringing in Hooker for a visit. It's a smokescreen move so some team might try to trade up with us to snag him.

That's why I think you need to look at the bigger picture of everything we stand to gain by either picking Bijan or trading the pick to a team that wants him bad enough. Green Bay is going to draft a RB somewhere with the idea of replacing Jones replacement and moving him now or later. I can't think of any other scenario where we could pick a great player @ #15 and get the additional bonus of trading the other RB for a high pick and saving the money. I would pick him.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:00 pm

Trade #15 overall to the Chargers for #21 and #54. Then trade #21 to the Bengals for #28 and 60. Then trade #28 to the Chiefs for #31 and #95.

Trade Aaron Rodgers to the Jets for #42 & #43

31: Darnell Washington TE Georgia
42: Jack Campbell LB Iowa
43: Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
45: Tuli Tuipulotu OLB USC
54: Keeanu Benton DL Wisconsin
78: Garrett Williams CB Syracuse
92: Zack Kuntz TE Old Dominion
95: Bryce Ford-Wheaton WR West Virginia
116: Anthony Johnson Jr. S Iowa State
149: Matt Landers WR Arkansas
170: Marte Mapu S Sacramento State
232: Cory Trice CB Purdue
235: Tavius Robinson OLB Mississippi
242: Jake Witt OT Northern Michigan
256: Jake Moody K Michigan

Mock drafts are "never" realistic, so why not go Super Gutey Trade Mode. (As long as we post someone so Gutey can't trade up and waste picks, we could easily fill up our roster with talent this draft.)

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 06, 2023 at 03:03 pm

BD!
Now that would be some draft!

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Coldworld's picture

April 06, 2023 at 06:20 pm

This is actually illustrative of why I wouldn’t take Bijan at 15. He is going to be a good player he might have one of the highest floors in the draft. However, if he’s still there I think he gets us the best offer to trade back we are likely to get. In addition, he plays a position which is probably the most set on our roster and also one where draft picks often start straight away. If we had not resigned Jones I’d see merit. But we did.

If we sign Bijan we get an upgrade in Dillon as used, if he’s indeed to be used the same way. Dillon has been effective, so the upgrade is not large. I also don’t see Jones’ snaps diminishing. So we basically get some improvement for half our rb reps is this year at best. We have other needs now where less may well be more. Next year we can draft a RB if that’s needed. We need others playing and developing now. Good player but not the right time for us.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:21 pm

Packers already have a top 5 backfield with Jones and Dillon. Bijan won't make any difference in terms of upping the quality of the backfield. You also over estimate the value of RBs on the trade market, especially those who are 28 years old. My guess is Jones' trade value is an R4 and that's it. Also with the restructure of Jones' contract he counts $8M against the cap whereas cutting or trading him he will count $18M against the cap this year in dead money. Not to mention drafting a RB in R1 is a waste of a pick.

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greengold's picture

April 06, 2023 at 06:27 pm

All true.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 07, 2023 at 08:34 am

Doublej,
We all have our opinions and yours is no better or worse than anyone else.

I remain that should Gutey actually draft Bijan and he is only used as a RB in 2023 than I'd agree it would not seem like a good draft choice. If Bijan was drafted and used in more of a slot receiving role combined with spelling AJ out of the backfield it would be a fantastic choice because you got a blue chip player who could provide multiple roles for you. ML is considering using Nixon occasionally in the slot, which I am excited to see. However, Bijan is an 'excellent' receiver combined with his amazing twitchy & make you miss moves would be great in this role, plus he would be the #1 RB in 2024. The Packers do not currently have a good slot WR unless for some reason Toure/Melton surprises this year. I actually think Bijan could kill two birds with one stone (slot & RB) because he is that fantastic of a talent. I definitely could see Bijan as a better David Johnson out of the backfield RB with the Cardinals in 2016 when he had 80 receptions, and 900 yards receiving. Bijan, as a top 3-5 rated player in the draft, and quite possibly the best twitch/cutting RB since Barry Sanders I would be ecstatic with Bijan being drafted, but only if the Packers were creative and utilized him in as many roles as possible to get him the most touches as possible, particularly in 2023.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 07, 2023 at 11:21 am

You do realize you have just hurt your argument for drafting him in R1 by saying he could be a better David Johnson in the slot. Johnson was an R3 pick, number 86 to be exact, in 2015. He had one great year, 2016, in which he was an all-pro. After that he was dealing with injuries or a multitude of other stuff on the Cardinals before being traded to Houston. Aaron Jones as a receiver has been as good as Johnson except for Johnson's 2016 season. The attrition at RB also decreases their value since injury rate is so high.

You say Bijan is "quite possibly the best twich/cutting RB since Barry Sanders." Knowing that Bijan went to Texas and Texas is a Big 12 school, at least until 2024, you have to take that with a grain of salt. Big 12 football is best know for defense being optional. Most games you would think they were just playing 7 on 7 with the scores of their games. They do not exactly have a whos who of top defenders in the NFL. Sure there are some big ones like Vaughn Miller but he is an outlier for Big 12 defensive players as whole.

I will say again that overall Bijan was not as good in college as Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had to run against teams that did have good or better defenses and still put up stats that made you think he was in the Big 12. Had Taylor been in the Big 12 he probably would have run for 7000+ yards in his 3 seasons. All that said do I think Bijan is a good prospect, yes I do. But even if Bijan turns into LaDainian Tomlinson the value for that just isn't there in R1. There is a reason why RBs have been devalued in the NFL over the past 1-2 decades.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:39 pm

I think you are way off in judging Aaron Jones trade value. Teams drafting RBs don't know if they will be good or a bust. I am sure the bust % would be alot higher than the star RB. Aaron Jones is a really good running back who can run and catch equally well. And he isn't an OBJ clown. He is a highly valued team player in Green Bay. He is also pushing 30 and the time is now to trade him while healthy and still has value. Any running back needy team would kill for him and they wouldn't be only offering a 4th rounder. Plus, they can renegotiate his contract.

Nobody in the draft evaluation business thinks Bijan will be a bust. I actually want a top 5 TE with our first pick, but not at #15. Trade back and get more picks and still get a top 3 TE in late 1st round. Robinson might be the only player worthwhile for us to pick @ #15 because not only do we get a better player to fill the RB position of Jones, who we lose anyway next year. But we can trade Jones for at worst a 3rd rounder and at best a 2nd rounder. And eventually we save money. Or we trade Dillon and not for a 4th or 5th. We win either way.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 03:38 pm

Again we cannot trade Jones this year. His cap hit would increase $10M and the Packers don't have that amount of space available. Secondly a RB needy team is not going to part with an R2 or R3 for an almost 30 year old RB.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 06, 2023 at 05:54 pm

If he went for Bijan, Dillon would be traded.

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DoubleJ's picture

April 06, 2023 at 08:10 pm

Doesn't stop it from being a waste of a pick. There is no value to drafting a RB in R1. He very well might be the 3rd best player in this draft but he plays a position of low positional value. Not to mention it is the easiest non specialist position to replace and as well as find high level starters late in the draft (see Aaron Jones who was picked in R5).

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 07, 2023 at 07:48 am

I would never bag a RB with the #15, but we are dealing with Gutedkunst. You never know? If Robinson came onboard, Dillon would be the guy to move. WRs get yardage faster and spread the field. Tillman gets open and catches the ball at the high point. This team has zero TEs with open field ability. Maybe they keep this Shanahan relic of an offensive attack? They need an Edge guy to get to the QB. Best to get Two of these guys. Not wasting a high pick on a DT unless it is Benton Rd3. The CBs need depth, or replacement. Five to six CBs go in round One, so if a blue chip falls you have to consider him. Stokes has plateaued. I'm not worried about safety. They can be snagged rds 3-7.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 06, 2023 at 12:46 pm

By the way, Bird I love your draft strategy. Trade back, maybe twice and getting rich with more 2nd and 3rd round picks in the meat of this draft. Why not fill all the holes in one draft if you can. Rebuild in 1 year. I would pick everyone of those players and especially Moody to replace Crosby with a strong kicker who has kicked in the cold. Mason has been a great Packer, but its time to retire.

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 06, 2023 at 05:09 pm

I mean, we've got a pretty decent roster already. Yes, we see our holes, but fill them as best we can with an eye towards next season, and if we are more competitive than we think we'll be, more the better.

Everyone has their favorite guys, so making everyone happy is a pipe-dream. I was actually pissed when Gutey drafted Elgton Jenkins, because I hadn't looked at him at all. Once I read up on him, I was much happier than I was ten minutes before.

Even the guys like me and you and a few others, who love the draft, can't look at everyone. I still find it mind-blowing that Gutey seems to do it every year, like he's trying to find guys nobody is thinking about or interested in. (Pisses me off to some extent.)

Like, just pick the BPA dude... Screw Myers, go ahead and take Creed Humphrey! It's not a damn under-the-radar contest. Draft the best player available!

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greengold's picture

April 06, 2023 at 06:40 pm

I wouldn’t touch RB in this draft. We have 2 great RBs. UDFA this year will be loaded with a giant 2023 RB draft class.

Agree with Coldworld it’s just not our year to take Bijan should he fall. Also agree with him that scenario might help us move down for more bites of the apple.

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golfpacker1's picture

April 06, 2023 at 09:08 pm

I will say it again. I want Green Bay to trade back to later in 1st round or early 2nd. Then I would select with our 1st pick one of the top 3 TEs. We need to draft one of the top 5 and take advantage of the strongest TE class in 20 years. I think Edge should be our second pick. There will still be a ton of good Edge rushers available, even in the 3rd round. But I think a great TE would help our offense and team the most. More first downs mean time of possession goes up and defense is on the field less. Good teams have good TEs and use them alot.

I did not say I want to draft a RB @ 15 or in the 1st round. But I am not blind to see how it could happen because Robinson is that good of an RB, better than Jones. I also stated that if Robinson fell to 15, he would be one of a few players that would draw interest of teams wanting to trade up to get him. So we could trade back for more picks which is my preference. Bijan and Hendon Hooker would be trade up candidates for some teams, hopefully to trade with us at #15. My preference as far as drafting a RB is in the 3rd or later with my favorites being Achane, Spears, Gray, Chase Brown, Roschon Smith, and the steal of the draft @ RB Evan Hull. I would be happy with any of them but would prefer none before the 3rd round and only if our other needs were met first. Any of these RBs catch and run really well so any of them would be fine. Kick returning experience is a bonus.

Also thanks for explaining who the initials JT stand for. I do know most of the Packers players by their initials because that is important to me and most Packers fans. But I really don't give a shit about Colts players and that's why I am not on any of their fan pages.

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