Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 1677 - The Huge Risk in Bringing Back Aaron Rodgers

The Packers face a monumental franchise altering decision this offseason, and in order to understand the true magnitude of the Packers' choice, Andy breaks down the key risks involved if they were to bring back Aaron Rodgers. Don't miss it!

The Packers face a monumental franchise altering decision this offseason, and in order to understand the true magnitude of the Packers' choice, Andy breaks down the key risks involved if they were to bring back Aaron Rodgers. Don't miss it!
 
 

 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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1 points
 

Comments (17)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
croatpackfan's picture

February 27, 2023 at 09:27 am

You said that if ACR will play again on MVP level and so in it may be OK to take him back. You also said that winning the SB is more luck than doing the right thing (not in that words) why it is important to bother with building the good team?

You also said that it is only important to reach the play-offs and not to lose immediately. OK. Packers were No 1 seed after they won SB 3 times - 2011 season when they lose at home 1st game vs Giants (out of contention). Than 2020 season when they lost vs Tampa at home in NFCCG (out of contention). Packers repeat result in 2021 when they lost vs 49ers at home 1st game of the post season (out of contention). They were in playoffs 2012 season. They won WCG, lost in DRG. 2013 they lost at home WCG vs 49ers (first broken clavicula). 2014 again in NFCCG lost at Seattle. 2015 they lost DRG at Arizona (second broken clavicula and bottom of the roster WR in that game), than 2016 again back to NFCCG lost at Atlanta. 2019 season repeat NFCCG and again lost at 49ers.

Now, tell me what you make believe Packers can won SB, when they were not able to win one NFCCG from 2010 till today. And they played in 5 NFCCGs and won neither of them. Joint player? Only ACR.

4 points
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Leatherhead's picture

February 27, 2023 at 09:45 am

No. Fight the Urge. It's worth $9 million to pave the way for Love and get some premium draft picks, not to mention finally having an end to the drama and distractions for a while.

8 points
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tincada's picture

February 27, 2023 at 10:40 am

What makes Andy thinks GB, aka the 3 stooges, have any say if AR comes back. That thought right there made me shine on his podcast. AR is going to tell the stooges what hog ate the cabbage. And everybody but Andy knows that. End of discussion.

-3 points
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NJ-RICK's picture

February 27, 2023 at 11:44 am

No matter who the Packers have at QB next season if the front office doesn't provide the team with more weapons on offensive the team will struggle again to score points. I would keep AR12 if the front office guru's can sign some veteran athletic free agents @ WR & TE. Continue to draft & develop defensive athletes ( DL, DE & DB's ). Jordan Loves first season at a QB 2023 would take more time to gel with his offensive play makers. I'm referring to next season not the 2024 season.

-2 points
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ImaPayne's picture

February 27, 2023 at 12:48 pm

They will keep Cobb, Lazard, Amos and a few others on the cheap of course now that they are 16 mil under cap.
They will also covet a move back in the draft for more 5,6 rounders to save the money they dont have to save.

-2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 27, 2023 at 07:59 pm

Green Bay doesn't have enough salary cap money to pay the draft class coming in let alone have the luxury of buying ANY free agents. The Packers screwed themselves by letting Rodgers dictate the rules and then resigning him to that monstrosity of a contract. Enough is enough, trade the baby away and start rebuilding. When do you think HIS MAJESTY will break his silence and let this billion dollar franchise know what his decision is? It is well past time to tell him that the Packers make the rules, not Aaron. Just trade him and get it over with while teams are still looking for a QB. Last year was a golden opportunity to trade him for the FARM. Don't miss it again.

1 points
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Rebelgb's picture

February 27, 2023 at 11:47 am

More and more national media resources are proclaiming that that it is now likely AR will be returning to the Packers. Im no AR hater, I will always appreciate all he has done and I consider myself fortunate to having witnessed his amazing talent for so many years.
That being said, AR coming back for 2023 would be a HUGE mistake for the Packer organization and a franchise killer for the next 4 to 5 years.
It is time to let our #1 pick bench sitter to start and for this organization to think towards the future. We had our window to win multiple SB's with this QB and especially with this current team, and we failed. Time to rebuild and try again.
I have a terrible gut feeling that the rumors are true and AR will be announcing his decision to return more sooner than later....

4 points
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Rebelgb's picture

February 27, 2023 at 11:48 am

More and more national media resources are proclaiming that that it is now likely AR will be returning to the Packers. Im no AR hater, I will always appreciate all he has done and I consider myself fortunate to having witnessed his amazing talent for so many years.
That being said, AR coming back for 2023 would be a HUGE mistake for the Packer organization and a franchise killer for the next 4 to 5 years.
It is time to let our #1 pick bench sitter to start and for this organization to think towards the future. We had our window to win multiple SB's with this QB and especially with this current team, and we failed. Time to rebuild and try again.
I have a terrible gut feeling that the rumors are true and AR will be announcing his decision to return more sooner than later....

1 points
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Rebelgb's picture

February 27, 2023 at 11:48 am

More and more national media resources are proclaiming that that it is now likely AR will be returning to the Packers. Im no AR hater, I will always appreciate all he has done and I consider myself fortunate to having witnessed his amazing talent for so many years.
That being said, AR coming back for 2023 would be a HUGE mistake for the Packer organization and a franchise killer for the next 4 to 5 years.
It is time to let our #1 pick bench sitter to start and for this organization to think towards the future. We had our window to win multiple SB's with this QB and especially with this current team, and we failed. Time to rebuild and try again.
I have a terrible gut feeling that the rumors are true and AR will be announcing his decision to return more sooner than later....

1 points
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ImaPayne's picture

February 27, 2023 at 12:46 pm

I agree but lets face it, with him coming back, they keep their jobs at least another year and a half versus playing Love, ending up in the basement and knives start to be thrown around.
Rebuild will work better if he retires then they can put the blame on the situation of losing a star QB not getting rid of one and creating a mess doing so.

-4 points
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ImaPayne's picture

February 27, 2023 at 12:43 pm

Why the hell haven't the Pack Org picked the phone up and said, "times up whats your decision". To me its obvious they know what his decision is and are just going about their business. He is coming back to play for them. If he wanted a trade he would have spoken up and if he was retiring that too. Nothing to gain just sitting there.
Still they look weak and out of control by not taking charge. Surprised they havent asked him who he wants to draft.

5 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 27, 2023 at 01:12 pm

Maybe they asked already!

0 points
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croatpackfan's picture

February 27, 2023 at 01:12 pm

Aaaaaaaaghh! Daily double again!

0 points
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Hornungfan's picture

February 27, 2023 at 03:08 pm

Excellent information and presentation. A possibility I don't think you mentioned is Rodgers coming back for perhaps 2 years or more and the Packers trading Jordon Love prior to the 2023 draft and getting enough draft capital in the trade ( a 1st round pick anyway or something the Packers could package into a decent enough first round pick) and select a quality quarterback in the first round to groom for 2 years or so? Is this possibility out of the question?

-2 points
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golfpacker1's picture

February 27, 2023 at 08:08 pm

I love your optimism, but trading Love will not get us more than a 3rd rounder maybe. He hasn't played or shown anything warranting a 1st rounder back. This is bullshit letting Rodgers hold this franchise hostage year after year. Its time to change the rules in our favor. Trade Rodgers and get it over with. We will be right here next year doing the same thing. Time to move on.

1 points
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crayzpackfan's picture

February 27, 2023 at 03:51 pm

AR's agent - Patsy Dime - AKA - Tank Top Guy will continue to weaken the knees of the GBP's FO and he will once again be calling his own plays from the shotgun, passing out pre-snap gang signs nobody has seen since Boyz n the Hood, pointing fingers at everyone else for his own failures because of his own lack of preparation and offseason team building ambitions.
He will scour. He will pout. He will sit in front of millions alongside Tank Top Guy and tell the "flat earth world" that the lack of talent in GB is holding him back from from his quest for MVP's.
He will offer philosophical detours, bending our collective minds into thinking he's the only one who can pull Excalibur's Sword from it's cemented tomb.
He will look towards the light of the Moon and SHOUT, YOU HAVE NOT BEEN LANDED ON UNTIL Aaron FREAKING RODGERS SAYS YOU HAVE BEEN LANDED ON!!
Howdy Doody will not only be buying Rodgers Scotch, he will be overnighting ice, frozen from the sea fairing gods of the salted waters of Scottish lore, so he can chill a pour from a millennium's old oak barrel cask imbued by sages from before the times of Man.

1 points
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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 28, 2023 at 05:39 am

That was quite well done, Mr. Herman.

Scenario I
There is a plausible scenario wherein the Packers bring back AR and he subsequently wants to play in 2024 as well when his cap number would be $40.7M. Now suppose that the Packers picked up Love's fifth year option at about $20M and change, and worse, Love got to play a bunch of games in 2023 but was terrible.

a. No team wants to trade for a terrible QB who has $20M guaranteed.
b. AR is older, and perhaps he showed some regression.
c. GB is looking at about $61M for the QB position.
d. The 2024 cap is projected to be $256M, so 61/256th is 23.8%. No team has ever spent 24% of its cap on the QB position, IIRC. I imagine the Packers would have to send Love plus a 1st or 2nd round pick to some team in return for a mid-level or worse player (and that's just to put enough window-dressing on things to get it by the commissioner's office).

Scenario II
Andy assumed things remained amicable between AR and the front office. AR plays for GB in 2023 and the season is a shit show. AR plays poorly, Watson gets hurt, Doubs isn't a #2, the rookie ain't much, Toure can't get on the field, the TEs are awful, Love plays/doesn't play or is good/terrible, and GB has/hasn't picked up Love's 5th year option, whatever.

a. AR wants to try again for the 2024/2025 season. But he has that $68M in dead money. Worse, on February 16, 2024 (five days after the super bowl following the 2023 season), his $49M base salary becomes fully guaranteed.

b. AR wants to retire. Andy assumed AR would file post June, but if he puts the papers in on May 1, GB has to find $68M in cap space. I have them at $12M under the cap for 2024 (before the rest of the restructures this year come down) and $12M over the cap if they pick up Love's 5th year option. I don't think GB can create that much space. So, the front office is only going to say nice things about AR. Because they have to play nice.

c. AR wants to try again, but thinks GB doesn't have the roster to compete with. GB should be able to force him to play under his $40.7M, but AR has a $68M card to play with retirement.

This contract just cedes so much potential control to the QB, given the right circumstances, if the Packers don't move him now, when they can, and when they can still get some significant compensation in terms of draft picks to grease the skids in 2023 and 2024.

Balance the worst case scenario over the best case scenario. I think GB has issues at Safety, OLB, DL, TE and WR, the answers to which almost all have to come via the draft and internal development. It is overall a decent roster, and Watson and Doubs could well turn into real #1 and #2 WRs, for example, and others like Myers, Wyatt and Walker could have the longed-for jump. But I think it takes an all-time great immediate impact draft to make this team a super bowl contender.

I think the risks outweigh the potential benefit.

1 points
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