Maggie’s Pre-Game Six Pack - 2023 Week 18

All the way back in Week 1, the Packers and Bears met at 3:25 p.m. CST at Soldier Field to kick off another chapter in their historic rivalry, and to kick off the 2023 regular season. Now, in Week 18, the two teams will meet again, this time at Lambeau Field at 3:25 p.m. CST, to close out the 2023 regular season. It’s only the second time, the first being in 2010 (good year), that the Packers will end the regular season against Chicago. At 8-8, Green Bay clinches a playoff spot with a win. Here are six things to keep in mind going into Sunday’s kickoff. 

1. Pick of the Defense

The Bears didn’t manage to intercept Jordan Love in Week 1, but they’ve gone on a tear since. Heading into Week 18, Chicago has an NFL-leading 22 interceptions, and three different defenders have snagged four picks this season. 

The Packers are currently on a nine-game winning streak against the Bears (more on that in a bit), and per Stathead.com, Green Bay has only turned the ball over twice in that span. It marks the fewest giveaways by the Packers against Chicago over a nine-game span in the history of the division rivalry. 

The Bears have made significant investments on the defensive side of the ball, starting with an overhaul to the inside linebacker position in free agency. Chicago signed both Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards, and the duo has combined for seven interceptions, 14 passes defensed, and 248 total tackles this season. 

In the secondary, Chicago is getting a lot of production from two former second-round picks. Rookie cornerback Tyrique Stevenson leads the team with 15 pass breakups and four picks. 2020 second-round pick Jaylon Johnson isn’t far behind with four picks (one returned for a touchdown) and 10 passes defensed. 

Love has done a nice job protecting the football in recent weeks and has only thrown one interception in his last seven games. It’ll be imperative to play mistake-free football against Chicago’s turnover-forcing defense. 

2. A Real Bear Killer 

Going back to that nine-game winning streak the Packers are on against the Bears, a round of applause is in order for Head Coach Matt LaFleur. Per the dope sheet, LaFleur is the only coach in NFL history to win his first nine games against Chicago. 

The closest game in LaFleur’s tenure came during his very first game as a head coach when the Packers beat the Bears 10-3 at Soldier Field. Since then, his team has gone on to score at least 21 points in eight straight contests. Adding up the point values, the Packers have scored 269 points to Chicago’s 150 in that nine-game stretch, giving them a plus-119 point differential. That’s coaching dominance. 

It’s also worth noting that in each of LaFleur’s first five seasons as a head coach, his team has had something to play for going into the final week of the season. The Packers control their own destiny in Week 18, and a win gets them a wild card spot in the playoffs. 

3. A Tale of Two Offenses

The Bears and Packers have both found their footing offensively, especially in recent weeks. While the Packers had 38 points and 329 total yards of offense in Week 1 against Chicago, they struggled to put up points consistently for a number of weeks. Now, Green Bay has gone nine straight games posting over 320 yards, has totaled 33 points in back-to-back weeks, and had a whopping 470 total yards of offense against the Vikings in Week 17. 

Chicago has put up over 420 total yards of offense in two consecutive weeks and has rushed for 190-plus yards in back-to-back contests. In fact, the Bears have only put up less than 100 rushing yards in three games all season. 

The Packers have done the bulk of their work through the air. Love is one of only three quarterbacks to throw for 30-plus touchdowns so far this season, and his 3,843 passing yards rank 10th in the league. He has 248 rushing yards and four scores with his legs. 

The Bears are doing damage on the ground. Quarterback Justin Fields actually leads the Bears in rushing yards with 630 and is tied with D’Onta Foreman with four touchdowns apiece. Fields has picked up 39 first downs with his legs and has thrown for 2,414 yards in 12 games with 16 touchdowns and nine picks. 

What makes this matchup so interesting is that the Packers offense might finally have all of its weapons for the first time all season. Christian Watson didn’t play when these two teams met the first time. Now, Watson is trending towards playing. It also sounds like Luke Musgrave has a shot at playing after suffering a lacerated kidney earlier in the season. For Chicago, Fields has had time to build chemistry with his No. 1 receiver who we’ll talk about in just a second. These offenses should look a lot different than they did back in September. 

4. Having a Fields Day with Moore

While there’s no arguing that Fields is dangerous as a mobile threat, he’s also been productive when targeting receiver D.J. Moore. Moore’s 1,300 receiving yards and nine touchdowns are the best numbers of his career. His 70.8% catch percentage is also a career high. 

In Week 1 against the Packers, Moore had a modest outing with only two receptions for 25 yards. Since then, he’s had five 100-plus receiving games and is coming off a 159-yard performance last week against the Falcons. 

With Jaire Alexander serving a one-game suspension in Week 17, Packers fans wondered how the secondary would fare against the likes of Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Turns out, Green Bay did just fine limiting Jefferson to five receptions for 59 yards, and Corey Ballentine snagged the first interception of his career. Still, it won’t hurt to have Alexander back in the fold against a true WR1. 

5. Keeping Up With A Jones

Per the dope sheet, Aaron Jones has posted a game with both a rushing and receiving touchdown in each of the last three seasons against the Bears, doing so in 2021, 2022, and in Week 1 this season. In his 12 games played against Chicago, Jones has 11 touchdowns which is the most touchdowns scored against the Bears since 2017. Those 11 touchdowns against Chicago put him third in team history behind Don Hutson and Jim Taylor who have 15 scores each. Not bad company to keep for No. 33. 

It certainly doesn’t feel like a coincidence that Jones’ return has led to some significant points on offense. In his last two games, Jones has had 20-plus rushing attempts and 130-plus scrimmage yards in both contests, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He also had a long of 39 yards in Week 16 and a long of 25 yards in Week 17. 

While he’s missed six games this season due to injury, Jones still has 748 scrimmage yards on the season and three scores, with two of those scores coming in Week 1 against Chicago. If there’s any one player on the Packers sideline with a reputation for giving the Bears hell, it’s Jones, and his fresh legs could be the difference down the stretch. 

6. One for the Record Books 

As we wrap up the regular season on Sunday, a few Packers are either chasing or setting some personal milestones. Rashan Gary is a half-sack away from tying his career best which was 9.5 in 2021. A sack would give him 10 and put him into double digits for the first time in his career, all while playing only 52% of defensive snaps. 

Rookie receiver Jayden Reed made some history of his own on Sunday Night in Minneapolis when he broke Sterling Sharpe’s franchise record for most receptions by a Packers rookie. Reed currently sits at 60 catches with one game left to play. His eight receiving touchdowns rank third most by a Packer in their rookie season, behind Billy Howton (13) and Max McGee (9). Per Packers.com, Reed is also the first rookie in NFL history to have 100-plus rushing yards, multiple rushing touchdowns, 60-plus receptions, 650-plus receiving yards, and eight-plus receiving touchdowns in their first season. 

It’s also been a long time since the Packers have had a dynamic playmaker at the tight end position, and now they might just have two. Per Jacob Morley and the dope sheet, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are the second rookie tight end duo since 1970 to both have 25-plus catches, 300-plus receiving yards, and at least one receiving score since Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez did in the 2010 season. 

It cannot be understated how impressive it is for the Packers to have the youngest offense in the NFL and still be getting these types of contributions from rookies, all while having a quarterback starting his first season. For what it’s worth, Love needs only 157 passing yards on Sunday for a 4,000-yard season. And for anyone interested, Aaron Rodgers finished his first year as a starter throwing for 4,038 yards with 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, adding another four touchdowns with his legs. 

What I’ll be drinking for the game: 

Holiday Ale from New Belgium is on deck for me this week. The holidays may be over, but there’s no better “holiday” than watching the Packers beat the Bears, especially with a spot in the playoffs on the line. I hope you all do a little Raji dance on Sunday (yes, I know that was in an NFCC, but the vibes are still immaculate) and remember, the Bears still suck. 

 

 

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Maggie Loney is a writer for Cheesehead TV and podcaster for the Pack-A-Day Podcast and Pack's What She Said. Find her on Twitter at @MaggieJLoney.

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6 points
 

Comments (23)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Leatherhead's picture

January 05, 2024 at 11:23 am

This is a pivotal game for the Bears. Yes, it's superimportant for the Packers to win, but if they don't, they know they're bringing back a real good QB for years to come. If Fields wills his team down the field with his arm and legs, and he gets a little help, and ends the Packers season, he'll be Chicago's QB next year. If he has some picks and sacks and the Bears lose, then I think we'll see a different guy at QB next season.

So....superduper important for Fields. I think we'll get his best shot. We should be playing our best of all season, it's a must-win, and I expect a real good game. I don't think the Bears can get to 30 on us unless we help them with turnovers and poor play, and I also think that the Packer offense is playing their best ball of the season AND they're mostly healthy on offense. I'd like to see four straight TD drives, but I'd settle for whatever gets us to 30.

Best case scenario. We win kind of a high-scoring game, so we can go to the playoffs and continue to complain about the defense. Fields would have a good enough game that the Bears organization decides to hang onto him. Everybody's happy.

6 points
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Bitternotsour's picture

January 05, 2024 at 11:45 am

Fields is the QB he has shown himself to be. He won't miraculously turn into something else. He's a quarterback who can't be trusted beyond tucking and running. He's not suddenly going to become Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen.

He can't read or identify a defense. He can't protect the ball. He can't consistently throw mid-range and deep balls. Hell, he can't consistently throw short balls. In a word, he's mediocre. He's Trubisky with better wheels.

Fields is saved only by his ability to improvise and run. Chicago will draft a quarterback and they'll keep Fields for a year or until the quarterback they draft is ready. Fields will never be the man in Chicago, and he'll never be a winner anywhere.

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Leatherhead's picture

January 05, 2024 at 12:52 pm

That's a pretty harsh condemnation of Fields. I see a guy who has a not-very-strong team around him while he's learned under fire. He has over 3000 yards of offense, rushing and passing, in 12 games, and has put over 20 TDs on the board.

IMO, if you give him some better blocking and some guys to help him move the ball down the field, this could be a credible offense. He's the leading rusher and passer on the 16th ranked scoring offense and he's not getting a lot of help.

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Bitternotsour's picture

January 05, 2024 at 12:57 pm

yes harsh, but fair.

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PeteK's picture

January 05, 2024 at 01:13 pm

I'm somewhere between you two. Lamar developed so can Fields; he's not MVP material but a team can win with him. Bears will have two high first round picks to build a team around him.

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PackerBO's picture

January 05, 2024 at 02:26 pm

Fields has a QB rating of over 100 when targeting DJ Moore. Moore has over 1300 yards. Not too shabby

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LLCHESTY's picture

January 06, 2024 at 01:59 am

Important game for Eberflus too. A close game either way and he's likely safe but something close to the 1st game could raise big questions with the new president.

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White92's picture

January 06, 2024 at 01:22 pm

I'm betting they stick with Eberflus one more year either way. The Bears usually give a coach 3 years before cutting him loose with Trestman being the exception. The Mcaskeys don't like paying coaches to not coach.

While I don't think Eberflus is particularly good, he did keep the locker room together after that horrendous start. They could easily have unraveled and gave up on the season.

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jont's picture

January 05, 2024 at 11:26 am

I think it's time to feel confident about the team. Each week, it seems, we all put caveats in our predictions of victory-- granted, with reason-- but now we have solid reasons to expect a good performance.

And the Packers are a better team than the Bears. While Fields is playing better, it is never good when the QB is your leading rusher. Their offense is still not good. DJ Moore is their threat; cover him, Joe, and we're OK on D.

On offense Love looks legit, doesn't he? A solid outing from him, a little Aaron Jones, some TE contributions, and a few connections on intermediate range passes will mean a nice win.

3 points
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PeteK's picture

January 05, 2024 at 01:14 pm

Herbert is on a tear the last two wks, and Kmet ,even though questionable for this game, has a 70 catch season.

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cheesehead1's picture

January 05, 2024 at 12:06 pm

Like every week, hope our D plays tough with pressure and good tackling. Regardless of what happens, this D needs a thorough overall. Hope Murphy, Gute and MLF go all out to finally bring us a championship caliber D. Should be a great game, Bears are no slouch. GPG.

7 points
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splitpea1's picture

January 05, 2024 at 12:16 pm

Wicks, Watson, and even Musgrave could be available, so that's good news. Hopefully Reed will be out there as well. I'm still worried about McDuffie, though, but at least Campbell should be ready to go.

A win not only means the playoffs, but a winning record and a chance to forget our Rodgers-led loss to the Lions last year in a similar situation. How sweet would that be? And almost as important, don't send the frickin' Bears and their nothing-to-play-for selves home happy!

5 points
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mnbadger's picture

January 05, 2024 at 12:39 pm

Great article Maggie and I even like your beer pick.
Also, great feedback by all posters.
All I've got to add is my prediction:
Pack 34 - cubs 20
I totally agree with Leatherhead, hoping for a thrilling and high scoring (both teams) win putting one additional nail in jb's coffin.
GPG!

4 points
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BruceC1960's picture

January 05, 2024 at 03:53 pm

Whoever wins this game will be sky high going into the off season. Bears win last 5 of 6 or the young Packers make an unexpected playoff appearance. Bears will be a fun story to watch in the draft. Do they take Marvin Harrison Jr to pair with DJ Moore or go a new direction with Caleb Williams? I never thought of them keeping Justin Fields for a year after taking Caleb Williams. Not sure what they could get for trading Fields. Don’t think it would be a 1 or 2. My question is, is Caleb Williams the next Mahomes or the next Johnny Manziel?

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

January 06, 2024 at 09:07 am

he seems a little too self absorbed for a guy that's proven nothing but flash so far.
We'll find out in a few years, but I agree with manziel comp.
If I'm the cubs gm, I'd take the biggest, toughest, nastiest man available on either side of the LOS if I had the pick.
Toughness in the trenches usually isn't prone to bad days.
Pack 34 - cubs 20.
GPG

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Brewcity_BearsFan's picture

January 05, 2024 at 05:40 pm

No Bears fan wants Williams. Penix maybe. However his injury history is a major red flag.

I think the Bears keep Fields. There isn't a better QB presently available

1 points
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LLCHESTY's picture

January 06, 2024 at 02:00 am

I bet there is.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

January 05, 2024 at 06:02 pm

I think they’ll take Harrison with #1 and use their pick on a QB who can back-up or replace Fields in the future.

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mnbadger's picture

January 06, 2024 at 09:09 am

I heard Harrison was staying in college with 20 million in nil money.
Maybe that's been updated?
Please advise.
GPG

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joejetson's picture

January 05, 2024 at 08:33 pm

If they ever need the defense to play a great game, this is the week.
Chicago's D has been playing solid football for the last month, so points may be more difficult to come by than last week.
Keep consistent pressure on Fields and he will panic and cough up a turnover or two like he did in Week 1.
Just pressure him and contain the scrambles. Don't give him an opportunity to hurt you with the broken plays.
Love and Co. Will score points so just don't give back any cheap scores.

1 points
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mnbadger's picture

January 06, 2024 at 09:11 am

turnover battle will be huge on Sunday afternoon.
Pack wins 2 -0 and 34 -20.
GPG!

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Qoojo's picture

January 06, 2024 at 10:00 am

This season has probably been one of the hardest seasons to predict the outcome of games. Not sure I have seen so many "Should win" and "No way" games flip.

It seems like both teams are ascending and figured some things out. Other than bragging rights in a rivalry game that's been completely one sided for decades, it's a fairly meaningless game when it comes to the outcome of the NFL season. There is absolutely no way the packers defense holds up in the playoffs. I agree that a good game by the bears QB could mean he is around another season.

- The packers ILB situation is worrisome due to injuries. Is McDuffie still injured? It's a concern due to qb mobility.
- Which CBs start?
- Once again, no more stupid stuff on special teams.

Ultimately, packers offense has been very good when Jones is 100% available, and it seems like that should be enough to get the packers a win at home if they take care of the ball.

1 points
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White92's picture

January 06, 2024 at 01:28 pm

I couldn't agree more. I finally came around to thinking the Packers are good, then they put out performances like vs the Giants and Tampa. I'm glad I don't have to bet this game. No outcome would surprise me.

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