Forget Seeding, It's Time to Play Football
Expectations are high regardless of playoff position
By GregMeinholz
It's playoff time, and your Green Bay Packers are back in the dance. Of course, what else is new? The Packers have consistently made the playoffs for the better part of the last 30 years. During that time, they've held every position from the 1 seed, achieving home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, to the 7th seed, meaning they'll be the visitors in every game regardless of who they play. But do teams really care what seed they are once the playoffs begin?
Sure, seeding matters when it comes to having home-field advantage. You'd rather play at home with your home fans creating a raucous atmosphere for your opponent to endure than have to endure it yourself. But just this past week, we watched the Philadelphia Eagles prefer to rest starters, including their starting quarterback, when they had a shot at the number 2 seed. Sure, they needed Chicago to lose, which they did, but a victory would've made the Eagles the 2 seed, and unless they were facing Seattle in the NFC Championship game, they would be at home throughout the playoffs.
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni stood by his decision to rest starters despite missing out on the 2 seed. He preferred to have his team well-rested and ready to go for the playoffs, rather than move up in seeding. Almost as playoff position was of no concern as long as his team was ready to go.
For the third straight season, the Green Bay Packers hold the number 7 seed in the NFC playoffs. We've seen it all over social media and even in some news articles that if not for the NFL switching from 12 playoff teams to 14 in the 2020 season, the Packers would have been absent from the playoffs each year for the last four seasons. Which is true, from a certain point of view.
But the Packers' playoff performance following earning the 7th seed showed they belonged in that position. In 2023, they demolished the 2-seed Dallas Cowboys and were an Anders Carlson missed FG away from at least taking the 1-seed 49ers into overtime the next game. In 2024, it's arguable that the game in Philadelphia may have gone a little differently had the Packers not lost WR Christian Watson to an ACL injury the previous week, which impacted their offense.
The Packers were the bottom sixth seed in 2010 when they won Super Bowl XLV. Sometimes, all you need is a chance.
It's time to go
The Packers went into this season with expectations that they would compete for a Super Bowl. Those expectations skyrocketed with the addition of Micah Parsons. Since then, Micah Parsons has been lost to injury, and so have many other key players. The team is also coming off a four-game losing streak that possibly wouldn't have happened if Parsons hadn't gone down in week 15 and Jordan Love hadn't suffered a concussion in week 16. Despite these misfortunes, the Packers still showed they could compete on offense and defense. The Packers aren't the "barely made it" 7 seed team many believe them to be. This is a team still capable of playing spoiler.
Environment matters. So does the bed you wake up in on game day. You can't take away from the fact that game day preparation and stadium environment can play a factor in football. In that case, having a higher seed matters. But after that, no one cares what seed you are; go play football.
Chicago's defense has struggled down the stretch, and a Packers' offense with most key players well-rested and healthy should have a good chance to put up a lot of points. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay's defense has been a Jekyll and Hyde picture, sometimes completely shutting down offenses and other times getting beaten badly. The Bears' QB, Caleb Williams, has been almost the same. He struggles with consistency, but when he does find that groove, he can be very dangerous.
Chicago is the 2 seed, Green Bay is the 7 seed. But none of this matters come Saturday night if the Packers can execute their game plan to perfection and pull off the victory.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (22)
BabeParilli
January 07, 2026 at 02:23 pm
Does Gutekunst have the the character to admit he made a mistake - many of them - and trade Jordan Love as Roseman did with Carson Wentz?
Jordan knows his record as a starter is now 11 wins 18 losses and 1 tie in games where Jordan drops back to pass more than the Packers run - that is a ABSYMAL 38.3% winning percentage!!!
Rodgers Sunday night dropped back to pass 49 times and the Steelers ran the ball 24 times and the Steelers won. More on the won loss records of Jordan and Rodgers under Lafleur when passing more than running below.
However with Gutekunst's prize - Jordan - the Packers cannot pass consistently.
The only way the Packers beat the Bears is if Lafleur takes the ball out of Jordan's hands and runs on more offensive plays that Jordan drops back to pass.
These are the updated won loss tie records with Jordan as starting quarterback:
8 wins 20 losses and 1 tie - 28.1% winning percentage - when Jordan either throws an interception or losses a fumble.
20 wins 2 losses - 90.9% winning percentage - when Jordan does not throw an interception or lose a fumble.
Lafleur now after 3 years - 51 games - with Jordan as the starter is 28 wins 22 losses and 1 tie - 55.9% winning percentage - AND JORDAN HAD A TOP 10 Packer Defense in 2 of the 3 years and this year's 11th ranked defense was in the top 10 through week 16 of 18. The Rams allowed only 20 and 19 points in week 17 and 18 relative to the Packers 41 and 16 points allowed after which the Rams overtook the Packers for the 10th position.
Lafleur after 3 years - 53 games - with Rodgers as the starter was 41 wins 12 losses - a winning percentage of 77.4%.
Overall 77.4% winning record with Rodgers after 3 years compared to 55.9% overall winning percentage with 3 years of Jordan starting.
Let that sink in, but don't stop there.
And in 46 of those 53 games - 86.8% - that Rodgers started the Packers dropped back to pass on at least 50% of the play calls. And in those 46 games where Packers and Rodgers dropped back to pass more than they ran, the Packers won 34 times or 73.9% of the time..
Jordan is now 11 wins 18 losses and 1 tie in games where Jordan drops back to pass more than the Packers run - that is a ABSYMAL 38.3% winning percentage!!!
So what we had in Rodgers for 15 years was a Franchise Quarterback as a starter who was a 4 time MVP and Super Bowl MVP Super Bowl winning QB that was graced a top 10 defense by Packers General Managers Gutekunst and Thompson just 3 times in 15 years and not afforded the overwhelming # of top offensive draft picks that Jordan has been graced the last 4 years.
And what we have in Jordan is nothing more than a game manager that Lafleur cannot trust or count in in critical situations when the Packers need to pass.
And in 17 of those 18 games that Jordan and the Packers lost where Jordan had passed more than the Packers ran, Jordan threw an interception or fumbled. The only game that Jordan did not lose a fumble or throw an interception was the Falcon game in 2023 when Jordan tried to do a quarterback sneak without the ball on 4th down and turned the ball over that way.
The Packers are now 17 wins and 4 losses - 80.9% winning percentage - when Lafleur takes the ball out of Jordan's hands and running plays account for at least 50% of the Packers offensive plays.
Lafleur can only do so much to hide Jordan's issues - and Lafleur has done a hell of a job hiding them.
This is a Jordan problem and thus a Packers problem as there our times the Packers are forced to pass. When the Packers fall behind - often do to Jordan's inaccuracy and/or fumbles or interceptions - the Packers need to score more quickly and are forced to pass. When the defenses of the opponents put 8 in the box, the Packers are forced to pass downfield.
Lafleur could call as many passes as he needed with an ELITE QB and he had one in 4 time MVP Rodgers and Lafleur and Rodgers were deadly when Rodgers dropped back to pass more than the the Packers ran.
Gutekunst destroyed the Packers chances for Super Bowls - past, present and future - with his ego and incompetence and insensitivity to veteran Packer players.
Does Gutekunst have the the character to admit he made a mistake - many of them - and to trade Jordan Love as Roseman did with Carson Wentz? Most true Packers fans knew back in 2020 that the pick of Jordan was terrible and the trade of Rodgers in 2023 was terrible and now that Gutekunst in desperation overpaid for Micah Parsons.
Malik Willis is our Jalen Hurts.
Jordan Love is our Carson Wentz.
If the Packers run more times than Jordan drops back to pass the Packer beat the Bears Saturday night.
TarynsEyes
January 07, 2026 at 02:58 pm
But...but...Love has better stats than Rodgers in his first year as a starter, and...and... Love is on the same path as Rodgers to win at the same age, and....all those other things that must be used to convince us that LOVE is ALL YOU NEED.
What needs to be accepted is we have seen what Love will be, this is his best, and will have wonderful games, at times, but he is what he is. The ceiling isn't getting raised, but the floor is surely beginning to fall. Let's stop bumping our heads on his lowered ceiling, and this applies to MLF as well.
GO PACK GO...hopefully the direction isn't as blurry as has been the last few 7th seed seasons, which have looked closer to a handout than an earned playoff position.
Leatherhead
January 07, 2026 at 03:04 pm
Taryn....do you remember the last time that Rodgers won a playoff game?
dblbogey
January 07, 2026 at 03:56 pm
I do know that Favre threw over 300 interceptions, the all time leader, many in critical moments of critical games. That should make Favre a loser in Taryn's eyes. I also remember how bad Rodgers was the 2 seasons prior to drafting Love, when Rodgers appeared to me to be doing everything he could to get McCarthy fired. Our last 2 HOF QB's were awesome, but both ended up distractions and IMHO head cases. Sorry, but I like Love.
Coldworld
January 07, 2026 at 06:59 pm
As even Taryn points out, Love’s book is as yet mostly unwritten. He’s not yet in his prime years or just entering them. This offense isn’t seemingly consistently getting the most out of him though. That’s why coaching and GM decisions now are particularly significant.
TXCHEESE
January 07, 2026 at 04:30 pm
Amen brother!. Jordan Love, 3 seasons starting and 3 playoff appearances. That first season, doing it with ALL first or second year receivers. Second second, battling knee and groin injuries all but about 59 minutes of the entire season. He's not perfect, but he's damn good.
Since'61
January 07, 2026 at 03:59 pm
"If the Packers run more times than Jordan drops back to pass the Packer beat the Bears Saturday night."
I think that if the Packers score more points, regardless of whether they run, pass, return punts, return KOs or interceptions for TDs or kick FGs, they will beat the Bears on Saturday night. GPG! Thanks, Since '61
heyjoe4
January 08, 2026 at 06:30 am
Hi Babe. As always, an interesting post from you on a controversial subject.
The W/L stats for MLF with Rodgers and Love are kinda startling. I can't say I'm surprised. Implied in your comments is that the Packers need to run to win, although I don't see that as controversial.
I'm not a big fan of Love, and nothing he's done as a starter has changed my mind. He plays without emotion and is not a natural leader, as a QB should be. Even so, the idea of keeping Willis and trading Love is a bridge too far for me - right now.
This game Saturday night is a huge test for MLF and Love. I expect the Packers to win. If it goes badly, it would be fair to re-evaluate your comments at that point.
KenEllis
January 07, 2026 at 02:25 pm
"Chicago is the 2 seed, Green Bay is the 7 seed. But none of this matters come Saturday night if the Packers can execute their game plan to perfection and pull off the victory."
Some profound and thought proviking writing on Cheesehead this week.
Looking forward to the upcoming "whichever team scores more points will win" article in the next couple of days.
TarynsEyes
January 07, 2026 at 03:02 pm
Endless cheering or unending excuses.
dblbogey
January 07, 2026 at 04:04 pm
I disagree. I think the team that gives up the most points will lose this game.
heyjoe4
January 08, 2026 at 06:32 am
It is a quote right from the playbook of Captain Obvious.
One thing I will say about the strange seeding. it won't syurprise me if the 2. 3, and 4 seeds in the NFC lose this weekend. That's not so obvious.
Anyway I'd rather play the Bears than any other WC team, even the Panthers.
dblbogey
January 07, 2026 at 03:52 pm
"... if not for the NFL switching from 12 playoff teams to 14 in the 2020 season, the Packers would have been absent from the playoffs each year for the last four seasons."
And if Major League Baseball hadn't switched in 1969 from 0 playoffs and 1 World Series, to where now 12 teams make the playoffs... blah blah. Silly argument.
Starrbrite
January 08, 2026 at 07:39 pm
Exactly—a silly, if not stupid, but certainly irrelevant argument.
TXCHEESE
January 07, 2026 at 04:37 pm
For whoever makes it to the SB, nobody is going to remember if the wins or losses in the regular season, or the seasons prior, were tied to whether the Packers ran or passed more. As one coach wisely once said. Stats are for losers.
One game season every week. Balls out!....as old number 4 used to say. Burn it down like its your last game, last series, last play.
BELIEVER
January 07, 2026 at 04:50 pm
I believe the Pack plays a hell of a game and wins!
Alberta_Packer
January 07, 2026 at 05:29 pm
Based on your nom de plume - I would not have expected anything less.
joejetson
January 07, 2026 at 06:35 pm
Man, there sure are a lot of "Love-hate" comments. The bottom line is the Packers were good enough to make the Playoffs.
How far they get now will show how high up the NFL totem pole they have progressed since last year.
The Parsons trade was made for the specific purpose of advancing in the playoffs. It was working, too. Until...
So we're going to find out if they have enough talent and coaching to win despite a really unlucky break.
Last year, the defense played surprisingly well in the playoff loss to Philadelphia. But some injuries to the receiving corp left them with noone to throw the ball to. They fell behind and couldn't catch up. The eagle's defense shut down a lot of other good offenses to win the championship. After they beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, nobody said it was because Mahomes was no good.
Green Bay goes into this tournament with a much healthier, rested offense. They will score points. If they get a good performance from the defense, they can beat any one of the NFC teams.
It was tough watching them play backups and lose to Minnesota, but I think they will be in much better physical condition to beat a flawed Bears team.
The following week vs Seattle will be a much bigger test.
Coldworld
January 07, 2026 at 07:03 pm
Seeding doesn’t matter. Health, game plan, mindset, discipline, determination and execution will. We know this current roster is good enough to beat this Bears team, seeding be damned. However we also know that we handed them victory last time. No excuses this time: just do it and don’t let up till it’s won. Go out and take it to them remorselessly. Thats playoff football.
heyjoe4
January 08, 2026 at 06:23 am
I wish the NFL would change the process for playoff seeding. Stick with - all four division winners are in the playoffs. After that, create the 7-team seed based on w/l record and established tie breakers.
At 12-5, the Rams should not have to travel cross country to play the 8-9 Panthers.
It seems like common sense to make this change. Thoughts?
Coldworld
January 08, 2026 at 08:45 am
I agree with your general point. I think you could simply say no losing record team makes it, even if they win a division. In that event it’s the best W/L record in the conference that makes the playoffs in their stead as the bottom seed and again to decide who replaces the division winner as the next highest seed. Something like that might sharpen the focus of a few franchises as well.
Since'75
January 08, 2026 at 06:28 am
"It isn't like we have to do more here in the playoffs, what we've done, got us here" - Sean Ryhan
Excuse the hell out me....what?