Curd is the Word: Our Mock Drafts are Futile Against Them
Mocks are fun this time of year, but they're never right
By GregMeinholz
First, I must apologize for missing "Curd is the Word" last week. With my wife at a work conference for the weekend and me flying solo with three kids ages 5, 3, and 10 months, I thought it would be best to focus on that. I'm happy to say we made it out unscathed.
But back to it!
You know what's a lot of fun this time of year? Reading everyone's mock drafts. There's something about that guessing game that adds to the anticipation of the upcoming NFL Draft. Everybody wants that sneak peek. Who can they expect their team to draft once that clock starts ticking on night one? Reading other people's mock drafts, and creating your own, it doesn't get any better than that this time of year. But you know what's true about every mock draft out there this time of year? It doesn't matter.
That's right, mock drafts truly don't matter in the grand scheme of everything. I'm sure being an intelligent reader like you are, you already knew that though. But many out there among us do not. Each year with about a week to go I start keeping a mental note of some of the most common players mocked to the Packers. Each year when one of those players is selected before the Packers, I read the collective disappointment online that the player either didn't fall, or the Packers didn't trade up to get them. Then of course is my favorite moment, when the Packers do make their selection, and it's not a person commonly mocked to them. Oh, the collective anger over "how could they be so blind with that guy there for the taking?" There haven't been many years where it hasn't happened, but there have been a few.
In recent memory, the only time I can recall the Packers selecting a player who was very commonly mocked to them in the first round, was in 2006 when AJ Hawk was selected 5th overall, in 2009 when BJ Raji was selected 9th overall, and in 2014 when HaHa Clinton-Dix was selected 21st overall. The first five draft picks can sometimes be fairly predictable each year so the Hawk pick wasn't too surprising. The Packers' switch to the 3-4 defense in 2009 left them with a need for a Nose Tackle and Raji just fit the bill with no one ahead of the Packers needing that type of player. But Clinton-Dix at 21st was just a case of the Packers having a big team need at safety, only one other team, the Jets, before them likely was selecting a safety, and they were favored to grab Calvin Pryor, which they did. That left Clinton-Dix wide open for the Packers' taking.
After those three picks, most mocks have been wrong when it comes to the Packers. It could be unpredictability on the parts of GMs Ted Thompson and Brian Gutekunst, but it could also be the plain and simple fact that any single unanticipated move could derail a mock. Many didn't have Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith dropping out of the top-5 picks in 2005, but we all know Rodgers fell to the Packers at pick 24 and absolutely derailed every single mock from the word "go." So, sometimes, you just have to prepare for the inevitable.
So, How Can I Use Mock Drafts?
As a Packer fan, I almost want to say, "Stay away from mock drafts, they'll only break your heart." Brian Gutekunst has become notorious for drafting "project" players in the first round. These are players who aren't exactly ready to contribute right out of the gate but have the potential to after a year or so of seasoning. This has received a pretty bad rap as while some of them become contributors, they're not exactly worth a couple of years' wait. On average, you want your first-round pick to be a worthy contributor at least halfway through the first season. That depends on the position, but most don't want to see that big first-round investment sit on the bench for the first year, they want to see what they've got now.
In a way, I can't blame Gutekunst for his strategy. He looks at a player and believes in a few years they could be a star, so he pulls the trigger early to ensure he's not looking back at the fact that he passed on that player when they do become a star. Do you think if the Dolphins had known that after a few years, Aaron Rodgers would've become a Hall of Fame Quarterback, they would've passed on him in favor of a QB carousel until 2012? Not likely. So, Gutekunst wants to make sure he doesn't have that regret if he thinks the star power is there. Lately, however, most of those project Packers picks have not gone that way. And that is perhaps one of the top reasons you can't take a mock draft for the Packers seriously.
The best way to use a mock draft in my opinion is to simply learn who could be available to the Packers when their time comes. With them picking at pick 23 this year, start at pick 18 and look at everyone from there to pick 27. That's ten players who could be options depending on how the picks shake out before. If none of those players truly fits the mold the Packers may be after, look into trading down. Think about a trade-down for no other reason than preparation. If it happens, cool, if it doesn't, also cool.
Mock drafts are essentially a game. A guessing game to attempt to predict the future. They're meant to be fun, they're not gospel. So, enjoy them, and have a blast, but don't get too attached as Brian Gutekunst will likely break your heart.
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Greg Meinholz is a lifelong devoted Packer fan. A contributor to CheeseheadTV as well as PackersTalk. Follow him on Twitter @gmeinholz and Bluesky @gmeinholz.bsky.social for Packers commentary, random humor, beer endorsements, and occasional Star Wars and Marvel ramblings.
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Comments (42)
D_Dave_Wittmann
April 13, 2025 at 07:16 am
Prediction is futile!
Racingdad
April 13, 2025 at 07:24 am
Last year Andy Herman nailed like 3/4 of the picks for gb in his one and only mock . I just found that interesting as the board and the mocks change the closer to the draft we get.i have done hundreds of mocks and have fun doing them as it gives you a chance to at least get to know who gb may choose .
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 08:31 am
If there's any common thread in these most recent drafts, it's that Gute loves the college all-star games (esp. the Senior Bowl). Jason Vrable was on the coaching staff of the National team. Here's the National team roster (add your own www.):
seniorbowl.com/players/national-team/
A couple players we seem to really like around here were in that group.
LLCHESTY
April 13, 2025 at 12:54 pm
That's why I have hope Gutey will draft Jalen Royals, he had a very good Senior Bowl. In 2023 he led the nation with 7TDs over 50 yards.
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 02:00 pm
He's someone I think they go for in round 2...assuming they don't go WR in round 1.
gsd3
April 14, 2025 at 09:44 am
In the many years of mock drafting, I've only hit twice. Vonnie Holiday and later with Raji and Matthews.
I do enjoy my exercises in futility though.
TKWorldWide
April 14, 2025 at 07:56 pm
Every trip to the gym is an exercise in futility for the TKstinator.
LLCHESTY
April 14, 2025 at 11:57 pm
You missed on HaHa? You were one of a small group then.
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 07:45 am
Mock drafts are just another form of fantasy football--it's a way to engage the fan base when there's not much going on. It's one thing that the NFL has going for it since it has such a high-profile feeder program (the NCAA) and its draft is well out of season. Some are cynical of the spectacle the draft has become...but we're the ones who are enabling the blow-up.
Not to brag, but last year I nailed the Packers' first three players, I just had Cooper and Morgan flipped. Not bad for someone who has never done a mock draft site, and uses everyone else's mock drafts to build wild-ass guesses.
stockholder
April 13, 2025 at 07:47 am
Yes- you are a Fraud.
Like most.
1 pick doesn't make you a guru
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 07:57 am
I think that was my point.
TKWorldWide
April 14, 2025 at 07:57 pm
Unnecessarily venomous.
stockholder
April 13, 2025 at 07:45 am
The Dunning-Kruger Effect?
jannesbjornson
April 13, 2025 at 08:22 am
I will still take my mocks over Gute's results, any day.
LambeauPlain
April 13, 2025 at 08:42 am
Because it is impossible to prove a hypothetical?
I imagine Mike Mayock did too, until the draft expert was held accountable for his "mocks".
He asted 2 years as an NFL GM with a 25-24 overall record. Several of his first rounders for the Raiders were gone after a year.
Drafting is hard.
LLCHESTY
April 13, 2025 at 12:56 pm
He also drafted Maxx Crosby in the 4th. After he was fired it came out the Gruden was overruling him on the 1st two rounds and I believe it. Mayock would have never drafted Clellin Farrell, he didn't have the traits he talked about so much when he was on NFL Network.
Idaho Cheese
April 15, 2025 at 05:29 pm
That seems like a projection.
Guam
April 13, 2025 at 08:03 am
The author pretty much nailed my sentiments about the draft. I gave up trying to predict the Packer draft choices years ago (because I was so bad at it) and now just enjoy the ride.
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 08:10 am
Exactly.
Let the predictions and mocks be exactly what they are: entertainment.
bleedgreen
April 13, 2025 at 08:09 am
You are absolutely correct it is Futile to predict The Packers picks because of their habit of picking projects that don't seem to pan out.
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 08:15 am
If you use the 2025 OurLads projected depth chart as a guide, the Packers--a team that went from 8-9 and out of the playoffs, to 9-8 and 11-6 and back to back playoff seasons--are currently among the league leaders with 17 of their 22 projected starters having been Packers draft picks, and 12 of those 17 currently under rookie contracts. That augurs toward pretty good draft productivity. Could it be better? Sure.
LambeauPlain
April 13, 2025 at 08:11 am
Mock: "To treat with contempt or ridicule."
I used to follow many mock drafts but now just check out a few. They end up causing me more frustration vs fun...following the monthly weather report for July in April is more accurate.
And when the Packers would select a prospect NO MOCK identified, reading about the "reach" and anger of fans "mocking" the GM's "stupidity" doesn't do much for me.
It is still enjoyable reading about prospects and their stories. Now I mostly just review CHTV Draft Guide and check out Draft Buzz...also find NFL.Com's Daniel Jeremiah a good reviewer.
These days, I spend more time reading about, and reviewing college videos of players AFTER the Packers select them.
dgtalmn
April 13, 2025 at 08:12 am
Mock drafts are a joke and I don't even look at them. The talking heads say more than enough.
gsd3
April 13, 2025 at 08:24 am
My initial stab. Used PFF simulator. Numerous trades up and down. Not perfect by any means.
Rd 2 #33 - Derrick Harmon DT Oregon
Rd 2 #54 - Jayden Higgins WR Iowa State
Rd 3 #84 - Kyle Williams WR Washington State
Rd 3 #98 - Wyatt Milum OT West Virginia
Rd 4 #109 - Nohl Williams CB California
Rd 5 #151 - Ty Robinson DT Nebraska
Rd 5 #174 - Logan Brown OT Kansas
Rd 6 #198 - Zah Fraizer CB UTSA
Rd 7 #220 - Elijah Badger WR Florida
Rd 7 #224 - Luke Lachey TE Iowa
Rd 7 #235 - Johnnie Walker Jr Edge Missouri
Rd 7 #237 - LB Smael Mondon Georgia
2026 7th from TB
dobber
April 13, 2025 at 08:32 am
I love Ty Robinson as a later round depth piece at DT. He's an animal.
LambeauPlain
April 13, 2025 at 08:56 am
What kind of animal? Rabid, fierce...maybe a "filthy animal"? A bull, a snarly grizzly? Not because he's "quick as bunny", right?
I'd like him as a Packer. He finally showed his upside his last two seasons in NE. And it seems more upside is there to unlock. He'd be a safe pick too...heck of a teammate and tireless, tough worker.
LLCHESTY
April 13, 2025 at 01:01 pm
He is one of the few 3Ts that is good vs run and pass. Walter Nolen and TJ Sanders are the others. Harmon is close but he had a 27% missed tackle rate and his run stop rate was average. Omarr Norman-Lott was kind of good in both but only played 83 snaps vs the run and 225 snaps overall. He did have 9 run stops in those 83 snaps though, a healthy percentage in a tiny sample size.
stockholder
April 13, 2025 at 12:50 pm
If you have to take a DT - Take Grant.
I Would even take Tyliek Williams first.
The rest is Fine.
NickPerry
April 14, 2025 at 06:16 am
If the Packers were to draft Harmon, Higgins, and Williams, especially Harmon at 33 I'd be on board for sure!
stockholder
April 14, 2025 at 02:07 pm
No to Harmon.
Misses tackles.
And watch how he fights back,
against the pile pushing and blocks.
One legged DTs are a No No.
Coldworld
April 13, 2025 at 09:22 am
The thing about drafts is that no one GM controls them. Sometimes they will trash the best plans. This picking for outsiders is an even more dubious punt, given we can guess on known traits, Senior Bowl prowess etc., but that only helps if those players fall remotely close.
To me at least, this draft offers us more than the average number of permutations to get what most of us think we need. With the odd variation of emphasis, our consensus is actually fairly defined and consistent. I just hope that’s roughly the same as Gute believes is necessary.
TheKanataThrilla
April 13, 2025 at 09:33 am
To be honest I don't do my mock drafts to guess who the Packers would pick, but who I would want to pick if I was in Gute's shoes.
What would be fun is sites like this that have a draft party going on, conduct a poll when the Packers are on the clock to pick the player they want. That way some can brag who get the right pick and we can have a record of actually who the fans on the site wanted.
jannesbjornson
April 13, 2025 at 10:24 am
Final Mocks submitted by 6:00 PM, April 23, 2025 and glued into the archieve. The Watch Par-tay is an annual event on Cheese TV.
NickPerry
April 13, 2025 at 09:51 am
"Brian Gutekunst has become notorious for drafting "project" players in the first round. These are players who aren't exactly ready to contribute right out of the gate but have the potential to after a year or so of seasoning."
Hmmm...Interesting, except instead of potential for most of Gutes 1st round picks we've gotten mostly projects who STAY projects. I'm really curious to see what Policy does once he's the team president. Does he keep Gute or does he get a GM of his choice and let him be a GM like Ted and Ron. IMO Gute MUST nail this draft. ESPECIALLY his 1st rounder.
#NO MORE PROJECTS!
BuckyBadger
April 13, 2025 at 10:01 am
Mock drafts are useful for the people who know little of college football and want to see where players might ranks. The problem is every GM has a different ranking and sees the board a little different which makes it impossible to predict. I read them but don't get the obsession over them or do I criticize a pick saying it a certain player would have been there later cause we don't know that. Every mock could have Player A going 70th but all it takes is one GM to view that player differently and he is a top 20 pick.
It is one thing to draft a project player but that player should have had success at the college level. LVN was player that was just cracking the rotation at Iowa and the Packers thought he had a real high ceiling. The issue I have with that line of reasoning is we know it is difficult to project the dominate players at the lower level, why do you think you will get more success taking players you think might improve? Pick a guy who dominated the college level because in the NFL who don't get to play Ball ST or even Northwestern.
LLCHESTY
April 13, 2025 at 01:09 pm
The consensus board gives a pretty good idea of where to expect players to go. It would be better if they limited it to 5 to 10 people that talk to scouts but someone looked at players that were drafted 20 or more picks higher than consensus and 20 picks lower and the ones drafted higher didn't fare as well so there is some use to that board. There's always exceptions, Evan Williams being a prime example.
crayzpackfan
April 14, 2025 at 08:54 am
Bucky -
"LVN was player that was just cracking the rotation at Iowa and the Packers thought he had a real high ceiling"
Just cracking to rotation? LVN had the second most defensive snaps his final year. Iowa has a thing there where they start mostly seniors and then rotate in the talent.
Bearmeat
April 13, 2025 at 10:15 am
What cracks me up is how so many “fans” are really just armchair GM/Coach/QBs whose ego can’t handle the “common sense” they see the pros “lacking.” This is akin to a 500 lb couch potato telling the worlds best gymnasts they shouldn’t have missed that iron cross or a high school drop out telling a PhD he or she is a moron.
Highly entertaining hubris.
I am a Packer fan. I will always be one. But I also know I am just that: a fan. And the pros know more than I do. So.. whoever they draft, I will hope for the best.
GregC
April 13, 2025 at 10:33 am
I enjoy looking at the mocks to get an idea of how the first 10-15 picks are likely to play out and a very rough idea of how the rest of the first three rounds will play out. Some of the early mocks are ridiculous because you get stuff like the Packers taking a safety in the first round this year. They get better as the draft approaches.
This close to the draft, I have reached the point of oversaturation with the mocks, so I'm focusing more on position group evaluations and the Packers' specific needs and tendencies. It's all so much fun.
LLCHESTY
April 13, 2025 at 01:11 pm
Chad Reuter is the worst. He always picks players that don't really fit their system. Giant O linemen, small WRs etc etc.
splitpea1
April 13, 2025 at 11:25 am
Of course they're never right. Once the first few picks are out of the way, it's anybody's guess what will happen.
As far as the Packers go in the first three rounds, there always seems to be a gap between what most fans think they should do and what they end up actually doing. But you can make educated guesses sometimes when it comes close to the Packers time to select. Musgrave is the perfect example--all the athletic traits they fall in love with, but raw and with limited experience. You knew they were going to take him.
WestCoastPackerBacker
April 13, 2025 at 08:31 pm
"On average, you want your first-round pick to be a worthy contributor at least halfway through the first season. "
I think if GB was consistently picking in the top third of the first round, that might be true, but that's not generally the case. Most players after that top group are even bigger question marks that the first guys off the board. From an article covering 10 years of draft (2009-2018) "At least for a 10-season span, 60 percent of dudes drafted in the first round busted out with their original team." So expecting guys to be ready to start and contribute as rookies when many of them don't even stay with the team, seems unrealistic.
USA Today did an analysis of draft success overall in the NFL. They looked at which positions were most commonly offered a 2nd contract, as a measure of drafting success. For edge rushers, less than half first round picks were offered 2nd deals (2000-2019 at 44%). So you can complain about Gutey's first round picks but overall it's the reality of the draft. I think the bigger issue is fan expectations. We should be expecting GMs to hit on less than half of their draft picks. Only 30% of all drafted players even make an NFL roster.
And why do fans not consider the bonus of how many second round and later picks by Gutey contribute as rookies? Take Watson and Doubs, who made better than decent contributions as rookies in '22, even given they both missed time with injuries. Cooper, Bullard and Williams in '24. Reed, Wicks and Brooks in '23. Zach Tom, along with Watson and Doubs in '22. Stokes started 14 games as a 1st rounder in '21 and looked like he would be a decent player until injuries, etc hit. And there are others, like Jenkins as a 2nd rounder in 2019.