5 Things to Watch in Packers vs 49ers: The Jayden Reed Game?
Jayden Reed could be Jordan Love's go-to weapon versus a San Francisco defense allowing plenty of yards to slot receivers.
By markoldacres
How competent is Brandon Allen?
The biggest news ahead of Sunday’s clash is that San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy will miss the game with a shoulder issue, forcing veteran Brandon Allen into starting duty.
Obviously, the absence of Purdy gives Green Bay a significant advantage, but they do not need to search too hard for examples of why facing a backup quarterback does not guarantee victory.
The Packers themselves won all three games this season in which backup Malik Willis played some part, and back in Mike McCarthy’s final season in Green Bay, his team barely beat a C.J. Beathard-led Niners team.
Kyle Shanahan is one of the best, if not the best, play callers in the business, and he will no doubt put his quarterback in a position to keep San Francisco’s offense functional. The question is whether Allen is capable of carrying out the game plan effectively.
If Allen is in the Brett Rypien tier of backups, the Niners don’t really stand much of a chance, but if he plays a clean sixty minutes and does not make any killer mistakes, it’s game on. The quality of his play is the biggest question mark, and X-factor in this game.
Is Christian McCaffrey back back?
After missing a huge chunk of the season with tendinitis in both of his achilles, McCaffrey returned to lead the 49ers backfield two weeks ago, but as of yet he has not looked like the elite offensive weapon we have come to know.
That could be a simple case of building back up to full speed or shaking off the rust, but San Francisco needs the full throttle version of McCaffrey down the stretch if they are to get their season back on track, and they will certainly hope to lean on him heavily this week.
A productive running game will be a necessity if the 49ers are to stay in the game, so the Packers’ defensive focus should be on shutting down McCaffrey, as well as capable backup Jordan Mason, and making Allen beat them through the air.
Jayden Reed
Reed has been relatively quiet in the box score of late, with only two catches in three of the last four games.
A symptom of having a plethora of pass catching options is not quite knowing who will be the primary target each week. Last week it was Christian Watson who broke out, but this Sunday could be a Jayden Reed game.
While the 49ers have mostly kept boundary receivers contained this season, they rank 31st in the league for yards per target allowed to slot receivers (10.1). Expect Matt LaFleur to dial up plenty of plays for Reed this week.
More man coverage from Hafley?
It may come as a surprise that Jeff Hafley’s defense has actually utilized zone coverage at a slightly higher rate than Joe Barry did a season ago, although Jaire Alexander has been plagued for injuries for much of the season somewhat explains it.
Alexander has already been declared out of Sunday’s game, but even so, the Packers might be best served challenging the 49ers with more man coverage.
Deebo Samuel is an excellent receiver, but he is much more of a zone beater than man. Brandon Aiyuk was the player San Francisco really relied upon as their answer to man coverage, and while Jauan Jennings is enjoying a terrific season, he is not Brandon Aiyuk.
McCaffrey, as well as George Kittle, a consistent thorn in Green Bay’s side, will present a real danger if Hafley does lean more heavily on man coverage, so it would be something of a high wire act, but too much zone could make life too easy for Allen at quarterback.
Fred Warner
The 49ers defense has regressed from formidable to just very good this season, but one player Jordan Love needs to be aware of at all times is the stud patrolling the second level.
A perennial All-Pro, Warner has been the gold standard at linebacker for the last five years, and has the ability to ruin your day on offense if you let him.
Warner had four interceptions and four forced fumbles in 2023, and already has a pair of picks and another four forced fumbles this year. Generally avoiding throwing in his vicinity, and keeping the ball high and tight will be key for Green Bay’s offense to avoid turnovers which could keep San Francisco in the game.
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (18)
GregC
November 23, 2024 at 04:24 pm
Nice analysis, these are all solid points. I'm hoping Jordan Love keeps rolling after his excellent game in Chicago. The 49ers should not have a very good pass rush without Nick Bosa, so I suspect Love will be hunting big plays downfield again.
I couldn't agree more on the need to limit the damage from McCaffrey and Kittle. Maybe with our improved play at the safety position we are better equipped to defend a really good tight end. We can always dream, right?
Tundraboy
November 23, 2024 at 05:05 pm
Shsssssh. I am.
JugGirard
November 23, 2024 at 04:45 pm
How the 49ers fill in without Bosa and Brock Purdy and Aiyuk.
How ex Packers De’Vondre Campbell and Patrick Taylor play.
But I will be watching Jordan Love first and foremost.
Last week Jordan becaome the first Packer in 80 years to throw an interception in each of the first 8 games of a Packer season – Irv Comp, 1944.
With 1 interception in just 17 attempts last week against the Bears, Jordan raised his NFL leading intereption per pass attempt from 4.17% or an interception every 24 passes to 4.28% or an interception every 23.4 passes.
If the Packers lose to the injury depleted 49ers it will be on another Jordan Love interception.
Gutekunst should be on the hot seat both for drafting Jordan in 2020 thereby CRATERING Packer Super Bowl hopes with the Pack on the brink of the Super Bowl just a wide receiver away from competing for a Super Bowl for many more years and then extending Jordan this spring when Jordan was under contract and had shown but a half year of reasonable play.
Gutekunst should also be on the hot seat for leaving the Packers without veteran leaders like Aaron Jones, Rasul Douglas, Preson Smith, etc. and his God awful drafting - with the 12th and 13th overall picks – Gary and Van Ness – you expect All Pros, not a marginal starter and a bust. And with the other 1st rounders you would expect solid starters from year 1 and the Packers have received nothing close other than Jaire.
The fact that Jordan is throwng interceptions at his current SKY HIGH RATE is even more amazing given that quarterbacks of the past did not play in the current QB and Receiver friendly NFL.
Quarterback interceptions per pass attempt percentage by decade:
1932 9.4%
1942 9.7%
1952 7.4%
1962 6.1%
1972 5.3%
1982 4.4%
1992 3.9% (Brett was at 2.8%, 4.6%, and 2.4% his first 3 years, well below league average except his 2nd year)
2005 3.1% (Aaron was at 2.4%, 1.3%, and 2.3% his first 3 years well below the league average – his 1.29% - 1.3 rounded - in his 2nd year, 2009, was the lowest interception % in the league. Guess who was 2nd lowest? Brett Favre at 1.31 – Rodgers threw 7 picks on 541 pass attempts and Favre 7 picks on 531 pass attempts – unfortunately Brett threw his next 2 interceptions at the worst time in the NFC championship game, including the 1 in Sudden Death that ended the Vikes season)
2023 2.3%
2024 2.2% (Jordan is currently at 4.2%, nearly double the league average)
Tundraboy
November 23, 2024 at 05:07 pm
So?
ricky
November 23, 2024 at 05:39 pm
This article has a slant. A lot of the information was also gleaned from other articles, but with no attribution to the original source. Unless you're going to try to pass off all the stats and work done for this article as your own. Seriously, Irv Comp? Besides, in spite of everything, the Packers are currently 7-3, and odds on favorites to make the playoffs. Once the "second season" begins, anything is possible. Just ask the Giants and Eli Manning:
"How many touchdowns and interceptions did Eli Manning have?
Eli Manning stats
Career: 4893 of 8119 (60.3%) passing for 57,023 yards with 366 touchdowns and 244 interceptions; 315 carries for 567 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns.Sep 18, 2024"
I'll type it for the umpteenth time: make the playoffs, get hot, and you too can win the SB. And sometimes, a bit of luck is always welcome. After all, in the first win over the Patriots in the SB, Manning was lucky not to get sacked. Then he threw a long pass to a David Tyree that was very well covered by Rodney Harrison (similar to the toss to Watson in the Bears game this year). Tyree managed to pin the ball to his helmet with his left hand for a reception.
PackersNightingale
November 23, 2024 at 08:12 pm
"Seriously, Irv Comp?"
Gil Martin of Cheesehead TV also wrote about Jordan’s new Packer consecutive game interception record just this past Wednesday. See:
“Jordan Love Has a Chance to Erase Bad Memories and Records vs the 49ers”
Excerpt:
“He has actually thrown at least one interception in each of the eight games he’s played this season. The last player in Packers history to throw an interception in each of his first eight games in a season was Irv Comp who did it in 1944. That was 80 years ago. The last quarterback in the league to do that is Case Keenum with Denver in 2018.”
Good to know for perspective as we evaluate Jordan Love and the man that chose him for the Packers.
I would have thought Brett Favre or Lynn Dickey or John Hadl or Scott Hunter or Jerry Tagge or Majik or Randy Wright or David Whitehurst or Don Horn or Lamar McHan or Tobin Rote or other Packer QBs from earlier times that I watched would have been in competition with Jordan Love for this Packer record of futility, but on second thought 8 straight games throwing an interception to start a regular season is a lot!!
The Packers played 10 games that year and Comp threw an interception in all 10 games, so Jordan has not yet equaled Comp. The information is readily available at pro football reference com
I actually have a friend that saw Irv Comp play for Green Bay. Comp threw the winning touchdown pass in the 1944 NFL championship game that would be the Packers last NFL Championship before Lombardi.
Go Pack Go - should win tomorrow.
ricky
November 23, 2024 at 11:17 pm
Thanks. I knew I'd read it somewhere, but couldn't remember where. Yes, Love has done some dumb things this year. Also some great things. He needs to stop worrying about the size of his contract, and living up to it, and just let the game come to him. Remembering there are ten other guys on the field who are there to help him. Unfortunately, there are eleven on the other side who want to do him great harm.
Bitternotsour
November 24, 2024 at 08:35 am
Honestly, if you've ever watched Jordan Love play you would never use the word "worry" when describing him. He is without question the most worry free football player in the NFL. The guy is non-plussed at all times. Eli Manning was a pretty fair equivalent. He always looked like he didn't even know what the score was.
GregC
November 23, 2024 at 05:42 pm
Just what we needed: another AI-generated anti-Jordan Love post. I wish CHTV would get rid of these things.
AnotherPackFan
November 23, 2024 at 10:44 pm
@jughead, so you are telling us Love is struggling (and it took a whole essay to tell us that). Thanks we all know this year has been less than hoped for.
His QBR (best overall ranking method for QB's) has him ranked 16th so far this season. Not too good.
Justin Herbert is 19th, Sam Darnold is 20th.
How are those three terrible QB's teams doing?
7-3
7-3
8-2
You know which stat is most important? Just win baby!
Of course you choose to be selective and just look at this year's injury plagued stats. But how about his career as a starter (a whole 25 games, as if that is much to go by). These past 1.5 yrs, 48 TD 22 Int, and an Int rate of 2.6%
I guess that hurts your argument so you don't want to include that in your trolling.
LLCHESTY
November 24, 2024 at 12:06 am
Any Packer fan that would put that much effort into a comment should also realize Gutey isn't in charge of contracts but you do you.
jannesbjornson
November 24, 2024 at 08:25 am
Love is currently tied with Mahomes for the INT lead. Do you want Brett Veach to shit-can him too?
Leatherhead
November 23, 2024 at 10:34 pm
Brett Favre did not throw interceptions in the first 8 games of the season, ever. Not even the year he threw 29.
I mean, he threw 8 in the first four games, he had 9 multiple pick games, he threw an interception in 14 games,but at least he didn't do as bad as Love has done in 8 games. And he was an HOFer. So yeah, Jordan Love is terrible.
Sheeesh
Dick-theBruiser-Afflis
November 25, 2024 at 07:48 pm
You continue to make this ridiculous comparison.
Let's examine your attempt at logic closer.
So at best you are trying to say that Jordan is equal to Brett Favre in Brett’s statistically worse year of Brett’s 20 year career?
Wow, well that would be some accomplishment wouldn’t it?
However even in that ridiculous comparison, your sophistry is unequaled and the cherry picking very good as well, until one recognizes that sophistry and red herrings among the cherries.
I watched Brett Favre in the 2005 year you point out where the Packers went 4 wins and 12 losses after losing pro bowl wide receiver Javon Walker to an ACL tear in game 1 and all pro running back Ahman Green to a ruptured thigh tendon in game 6, losing a 17 point lead against the Vikings after Green went down, after just having beat the Saints 52-3 the week earlier. The Packers in the same game against the Vikings lost starting wide receiver Robert Ferguson to a torn lateral cruciate ligament in his knee and he was not the same when he came back. Packers had also lost back up running back Najeh Davenport for the season in game 5 due and that year’s 2nd round pick, wide receiver, Terrence Murphy to career ending neck injury in game 4.
Imagine the Packers and Jordan this year without Jacobs and Wilson and Reed and Doubs.
Also Brett Favre – and Aaron Rodgers at the start - played in an era where the QB and receivers were not treated as little prinecesses in pink tutus and interceptions were consequently much more likely and the interception to pass attempt numbers much higher.
That said, I watched Brett Favre in the years - 1992 and 1994 through 1997 and 2000 through 2002, 2003-2004, 2006-2007 and 2009 – that earned Brett the NFL hall of fame, and Jordan Love is closer to Brett Hundley and no where near the Brett Favre of those years.
If you are going to talk about the 2005 injury riddled Packers and Brett Favre of 2005 – Favre’s worse statistical year - and try to compare that to the 2024 healthy Packers and Jordan Love – the 2024 NFL interception % and interception leader and league’s most inaccurate passer other than Richardson or Levis - please point out the OBVIOUS differences.
No QB takes a team to a Super Bowl and Super Bowl victory when leading the NFL in interceptions and at the bottom of the NFL in passing accuracy unless the team and head coach is carrying the QB and you have multiple miracles (i.e. Brooks last second field goal block) and anomalies (i.e. A - Packers beating the Texans, 92.5% of the time in 2023 the team with a 3 turnover disadvantage lost the game, and B – playing teams without starting QBs – last year Stafford and Cousins, this year Purdy – and other All Pro, Pro Bowl, and/or key starters)
The Packers won 3 - of the 4 games you point out – due to an anomaly (vs. Texans, Packers being in the 7.5% group that wins when losing the turnover battle by 3 or more), due to the 2nd half heroics of Malik Willis in Jacksonville after Jordan bailed out after throwing another momentum changing, game changing interception and then claiming yet another ouch oweee (groin strain, can you even imagine Favre leaving a game with a groin strain!!) – due to a miraculous last second field goal block by Karl Brooks after another off target Jordan interception.
The Packers could just as easily been 0 wins and 4 losses in those 4 games, rather than the 3 wins and 1 loss the Packers same out of it with. So luck, Lafleur and the Packers team once again carried Jordan and “Gutey”.
Bitternotsour
November 25, 2024 at 08:37 pm
8-3, hadn't won our 7th game until late December last year. What point are you making?
Maybe sit this out until January.
TOMMY'63
November 24, 2024 at 08:54 am
Today we will play a very depleted team. They are missing 5-6 players today and numerous others on injured reserve. If we fuck up today at home, then sorry mates but then we truly are a weak team. So far this season we've played against a teams missing numerous players and barely scraped by. Don't know, I don't believe we're that good of a team. Let's hope for the victory! GPG
murf7777
November 24, 2024 at 10:31 am
Yes and we are missing Jaire, arguably our best D player and Cooper maybe our best LB….I agree they have more important pieces, especially the QB ,missing this game. But, didn’t GB win 2 1/2 games with a back up QB? Great teams, have very good coaching and next man up mentality. We would be far from a weak team if we get beat by SF, even without them being full strength.
Leatherhead
November 24, 2024 at 01:48 pm
Murf, 5 teams have beaten the 49ers this year, WITH Purdy. Their 5-5 record includes wins over the Cowboys, the Patriots, and the Mighty Jets. If we take our 3rd home loss of the year to these guys, it's going to be bad.
This is not the team that won the NFC last year.
As regards "missing Jaire", I'm kind of like "if he's availabe, great, but we're not really planning on him for anything" By snap counts or tackles, he's not anything close to our best defender this year.