Packers Roster Moves Dispelled Cut down Day Myths
Brian Gutekunst might not treasure his draft picks as much as you think.
By markoldacres
Cut down time always springs a few surprises, and this year was no different, with Green Bay’s general manager Brian Gutekunst catching people off guard with various moves.
This included trading for quarterback Malik Willis from Tennessee, cutting both Sean Clifford and Michael Pratt, the incumbent backups to Jordan Love, as a result. A.J. Dillon’s placement on season-ending injured reserve with a stinger was another shock.
But this year’s finalization of the Packers roster also served to dispel a couple of myths which have ubiquitously viewed as fact.
First and foremost, the notion that Gutekunst is fiercely loyal to his draft picks and never releases them as rookies, is simply not true.
Of course, every GM would believe their rookie draft picks will show enough to stay on the 53, and would like to keep them, or they would not have drafted the players in the first place.
But Gutekunst has cut his fair share of newly drafted players, certainly enough that he should not be accused of being overly loyal to them.
Seventh-round picks Michael Pratt and Kalen King were both released on Tuesday, with King making it back to the practice squad and Pratt finding a new home in Tampa Bay.
By cutting two of his 11 picks, the percentage of drafted players to not make the 53 man roster in their first season increased to 13.89% during Gutekunst’s tenure.
He has released 10 of his 72 total draft picks as rookies, and two in each of the last two years. On average, 1.53 drafted rookies are cut from Gutekunst’s rosters each year.
There have only been two seasons of Gutekunst’s seven as GM in which every rookie draft pick has made the 53, and he has cut multiple of these players in four separate seasons.
The genesis of the myth about Gutekunst protecting his draft picks is probably the 2022 class, when he kept all 11, including Jonathan Ford, Tariq Carpenter, and Rasheed Walker (which worked out well), who between them played a combined 16 snaps from scrimmage as rookies.
Back then, there were accusations – including from the starting quarterback at the time – that the roster selection process in Green Bay was not a meritocracy. That may have been, and may still be true, but not in the way you might think.
In the age of being able to call up players from the practice squad to the active roster for game day on a weekly basis, NFL decision makers are thinking more about their roster as 69 people (the usual 53, plus 16 practice squad spots).
GMs want to keep as many of their guys as possible, so when selecting the 53, it is not about who draft capital was spent on, it is about who the team thinks will clear waivers and make it back to the practice squad, and who will not.
After next year’s draft, when you put together your projected 53, it would be a safer bet to assume at least one rookie is going to get cut, if not more, rather than expecting the entire class to make the team.
The second myth is a wider point rather than something Packers specific. It is the idea that no one ever gets claimed on waivers, and everyone you might worry about being claimed will make it safely back to the practice squad.
This was proven emphatically wrong on Wednesday, as Grant DuBose, Anthony Johnson Jr., and Royce Newman (for some reason) were all claimed by other NFL teams upon their release from Green Bay. Kristian Welch is now also on the Broncos 53.
It is a compliment to the Packers roster that they were in a position to release four players who other NFL teams wanted on their roster, but it was disappointing to lose DuBose and Johnson Jr. in particular.
Across the league, only 26 players were claimed, so it is not exactly an epidemic Packers fans need to go to the other extreme and be panicked about, but this year served as a lesson that it is ultimately a case by case basis.
Sometimes, it is correct to assume a player will make it back to the practice squad, but if no other NFL team claimed DuBose or Johnson Jr., it would have been collective malpractice.
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Mark Oldacres is a sports writer from Birmingham, England and a Green Bay Packers fan. You can follow him on twitter at @MarkOldacres
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Comments (26)
stockholder
August 31, 2024 at 06:21 pm
Catching people off guard- very funny.
There is No strategy.
The perfect time is now.
No one should be satisfied.
GregC
August 31, 2024 at 07:35 pm
Those aren't myths, they were trends which were broken this year. I'm not sure how Gutekunst compares to other GMs in keeping his draft picks, but it does seem like he has generally kept more than usual. Maybe this was due to the Packers being less active in free agency than most teams, although I don't have the numbers to prove it. Having so many draft picks cut this year was probably just an anomaly.
Having four cut players sign onto other teams' 53-player rosters is clearly an outlier and is unlikely to happen again anytime soon. I was hoping they could trade one of those guys for a backup offensive tackle, but they ended up sticking with all of their current offensive linemen, even after waivers. Maybe there just aren't any teams that have more good offensive tackles than they need.
Oppy
September 01, 2024 at 12:34 am
When your roster cuts are nt clearing waivers, it’s an indication of having a very deep, talented roster. Or, alternatively, a sogn That it’s all for the glory of Gute.
Turophile
September 01, 2024 at 02:32 am
You have to factor in on how successful Gute has been drafting between 2022 and 2024. The better you draft, the fewer the number of your draft picks are waived quickly.
Look at the 2020 draft and only Love is still on the team, with Dillon and Runyan released after playing for a few years. That was not such a great draft, though somewhat saved by them having taken Love that year. Also, in 2019 the Packers had several holes in their roster due to some draft failures, so they unusually (for them) brought in some higher tier players in March, like Preston and ZaDarius Smith, Safety Adrian Amos and OT Billy Turner.
The Packers could go back to having a poor draft at any time - lets hope that time is a long time coming.
dobber
September 01, 2024 at 07:05 am
It's, in part, volume. The Packers have made 36 picks over the last 3 drafts. That's a lot of young and developing guys on your roster at the same time. It seems unlikely that the volume will continue at that rate, but pretty soon they're going to need to make hard decisions on which of these guys to pay and who to trade or let walk.
RobinsonDavis
September 01, 2024 at 09:54 am
Exactly! The "decision making" moving forward, will be key. I hope they continue to draft well and have these decision "issues" moving forward as the talent improves.
Rory P Scrotem
September 01, 2024 at 07:15 am
Why, in all this shuffling, is Touri never mentioned?
He went to the Bears practice squad right???
WestCoastPackerBacker
September 01, 2024 at 06:25 pm
He was largely talking about rookie draft picks being cut. Toure isn’t a rookie.
cdoemel
September 03, 2024 at 12:15 pm
And he also never could put it all together consistently, although he had the opportunities.
stockholder
September 01, 2024 at 08:09 am
What your ignoring is: that Gute has made 72 picks.
How many Free Agents Signed?
And No Super-BowlTrophy.
I get it - Were still rebuilding-
And don't forget about the 3rd rd Curse.
TKWorldWide
September 01, 2024 at 09:54 am
Man, “you’re” shtick.
Is Getting.
Old!
stockholder
September 01, 2024 at 01:10 pm
I'll send Gute a Valentine Day card.
Feel Better.
TKWorldWide
September 01, 2024 at 01:31 pm
Blind optimism, fanboy kool-aid drinkers need not apply.
100% Chicken Little-ism, negativity, corn flake urinators,likewise.
How about some reasonable takes on the enormous real estate in between?
RobinsonDavis
September 01, 2024 at 10:17 am
I do like the premise of this article. It really brings to light that the many writers missed certain cuts by basing too heavily on one Packer trend or another with their predictions on who made the roster. If your honest, most of us missed a larger than normal number of these cuts.
Also, LaFleur stated they were building a 69-70 player roster now days, and not just a 53. I truly believe that Gute and Lafleur thought they could transition many of these players to the practice squad, under-estimating both the value of certain positions and players to other teams. I wonder just how hard did Gute try to get something back in return for a few of these guys via a trade? Anything is better than nothing, right? Thus, my belief they really did not WANT to lose some of these guys.
RobinsonDavis
September 01, 2024 at 12:41 pm
A handful of roster ramblings follows:
* Packers now have 8 players from training camp on other team rosters or practice squads, currently. What happened to Joel Wilson for the practice squad? I'm interested if he has decided not to participate or where the Packers are at with him.
*I do believe the idea of "controllable years" under contract plays a part in Packer decisions, and likely played a part with Kristian
Welch's release. However, McDuffie and Wilson are UFAs next year, as well. Giving that Welch played ALL 3 pre-season games at a high level, where we had multiple LBs that could not get through TRAINING camp uninjured, was cutting him the right decision? Do we really know right now, how McDuffie stacks-up against Welch on tape, especially after playing in only one pre-season game? And although, I agree with the decision of keeping Hopper, IMO, Welch clearly out-played him in pass coverage. Wilson clearly earned his spot, as well!
*Do we really need 6 DEs on the roster, too? King would have been preferrable to me, though DEs are definitely a sought after position, and based on Brevin Allen's signing to a practice squad, we likely would have lost either Cox or Mosby. This may revert later, or an in-season trade is possible, but doubtful without more NFL in-game experience.
*The signing of Willis was problematic at the time, as to if, and whom they would keep at QB #3. Still, in my mind, Telfort/Glover took a roster spot from a 3rd QB which I would have preferred. If you really want to be "back in the business of developing QBs...;" as Gute had stated, then you need to make a commitment and be patient. Willis is one year younger than Clifford and roughly 2 yrs older than Pratt. I APPLAUD the decision on Willis, but do not like they dropped Pratt, though they could always try to resign developmental QBs from another practice squad.
*Previously woeful in their respect for the Safety position, the Packers have a wealth of depth now. I have no issue with the Packers' decision in this matter, but Anthony Johnson was the 1st player picked-up off of waivers. Could have they received something in return?
*Once again Packers kept project players like Glover & Oladapo, players I had pegged as such (thought they would keep King and Pratt too, but King for now is on the P.S. with Jennings, who is worth keeping an eye on).
WD
September 01, 2024 at 01:49 pm
What ever happened to fan favorite Caleb Jones? I would have thought he would be in the top 70.
Turophile
September 02, 2024 at 12:42 pm
Beaten out by Kadeem Telfort. He had been given the time to develop and was intriguing due to his massive body - but he never improved enough to be kept. No other team has picked him up.
HarryHodag
September 02, 2024 at 06:45 am
Another consideration is fiscal. When you see the salaries being handed out these days it's far better to retain and groom your own less expensive draft picks than pay for someone who made a name for himself on another team. The Packers will be the youngest team in the NFL again this year and that is by choice.
Folks always talked about the Super Bowl window with Rodgers, but they also have a window of 2-3 years now because all these young players will want to be paid at the end of their rookie contracts. Those contracts could be whoppers at that time.
Best to win now with youth.
TKWorldWide
September 02, 2024 at 06:56 am
That is the economic reality of today’s NFL..
In the last year or so, I’ve been hearing discussion about a separate salary cap for QB’s. I have no idea how that would work, but at some point teams are going to do some heavy analysis regarding if it makes sense to pay their franchise QB 17% (or whatever) of the cap and still compete.
For quite awhile now, the model has been to get a QB on his rookie deal and load up all around him. Then, when that QB cashes in, teams inevitably start to lose members of the supporting cast and hang on. Then rinse and repeat.
The next one I’m curious about is whether or not it makes sense to pay a receiver $30 million or more.
Bitternotsour
September 02, 2024 at 09:46 am
My take on salaries is that they don't matter. I want people to make what they're able to make. I'm pretty sure every NFL team will have a full complement of 53 players.
I like the Ted Thompson model. Younger, faster, cheaper.
TKWorldWide
September 02, 2024 at 03:59 pm
Well, yes, except when they influence who gets paid, kept, added, or let go. Still the hardest cap in pro sports.
Oppy
September 02, 2024 at 09:15 pm
I agree with you on pay on a philosophical level- players risk their health and deserve everything they can get (and probably deserve more.)
However, I also acknowledge TKW's point, and it's very real- there does come a point where lopsided contracts can potentially harm our favorite team's ability to compete if a handful of players eat up so much cap (or a number of players severely under-perform relative to their contracts) that the team no longer has enough cap to build a competitive roster around their contracts.
Those situations will correct themselves over time- if teams start overpaying players to the point of detriment to the overall roster, they will stop overpaying those players in due time, and the market will correct itself. I guess that's assuming that winning is the end goal, as opposed to pure profit. I suppose if having the shiny superstar on the team sells more tickets and jerseys than actually winning does, the market won't correct itself until the sales are affected. But you know what I mean. The issue is, of course, that detecting the error in the market and the correction that would eventually come is not necessarily a fast acting loop, and the window may be closed before a team is able to re-adjust.
Bitternotsour
September 02, 2024 at 09:53 pm
The prime positions will continue to get paid. Quarterback, shut-down corner, edge rusher, and tackle. Someone please provide me with a program to show that Love taking $53 mil annually rather than $55M is destroying the pay of a 4th round guard or enabling an upgrade. All in all, it's someone else money, and honestly, as long as we're not sideways with the league who gives a shit how it's spent if the product is quality. Why get that far in the weeds.
Here's something I know. Two years ago we were in cap hell, and miraculously we were in the playoffs the next year, kicking Dallas ass, and this year we're looking even more promising. The team is the youngest in the league and they're good and i didn't lose a moments sleep worrying about how guys were going to get paid. Weird, right?
TKWorldWide
September 03, 2024 at 07:35 am
Good points, but I don’t think $2 mil is what we’re talking about here. As players excel and earn big $ (and I DO believe they EARN it), I think the main way to keep a competitive roster over time is by successful drafting. GB is coming up aces on that point recently. You can’t pay everybody, you can’t keep everybody, you can’t sign tons of top tier free agents. You HAVE TO draft well, because if you don’t, you’ll finish behind the teams that do.
Bitternotsour
September 03, 2024 at 09:47 am
it's a level playing field with the salary cap. everyone is competing with the same war chest. i guess drafting well is the best revenge?
also, it's nice to fleece the jets. fools.
Qoojo
September 02, 2024 at 12:03 pm
Packers are ascending, and there are fewer roster spots. Can only keep so many 7th rounders, especially when you draft double-digit players. The only bit of a surprise for me was Welch.