Rhythmic, On-Time Passes are Catalyst to Packers Success in Passing Game
A big contributor to the Green Bay Packers' offensive success in 2020 is Aaron Rodgers' ability to get the ball out quickly and in rhythm.
By Paul_Bretl
For several years, there was no one better at extending the play than Aaron Rodgers. He was the master of buying time, escaping the pocket, and oftentimes, making some magic happen. This was a big part of who he was as a quarterback and what made this Green Bay Packers' offense so good; that ad-lib ability.
However, in recent years, we didn't see the same dynamic Rodgers on a consistent basis. While still one of the top quarterbacks in the game, his play had dropped off. And instead of holding onto the ball and extending the play being a key component of this offense, it became a hindrance.
At the end of the Mike McCarthy era, receivers weren't winning their one-on-one matchups with the same regularity. This led to Rodgers having to be Superman in order to make plays happen, and at times there was a reluctance to get the ball out on time as he seemed to wait for the perfect opportunity.
In Year 1 of the Matt LaFleur offense, we saw the offense improve, but Rodgers still held on to the football for on average of 2.74 seconds, which ranked 34th out of 39 eligible quarterbacks. In a new offense, there was, of course, going to be a learning curve, as pass catchers tried to get into the correct positions on time, and Rodgers had to buy into the new system.
Now in Year 2 of LaFleur's offense, the Green Bay Packers have become one of the most productive offenses in the game. Entering Week 10, they are second in both points per game and by Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. As I often say, there is a myriad of reasons behind their success, but a significant one is that Rodgers is getting the ball out quickly and on time.
From 2015 to 2019, which spans five seasons, Rodgers held onto the ball for an average of 2.71 seconds. For reference, that time in 2020 would rank 32nd out of 39 quarterbacks. This year, however, Rodgers is averaging 2.5 seconds to throw, which ranks 16th in the NFL. That may not seem like much of a difference, and in most instances, it's not, but in football, that can be a lifetime.
This season, we've seen a bit of a renaissance from Rodgers as he has vaulted himself into the MVP conversation. He's completing 67.5 percent of his passes, which is up over five percent from 2019; he's also on pace for over 4,500 passing yards, 48 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. On top of that, he has the highest passer rating in the NFL at 117.5, which is on par with his 122.5 passer rating from 2011 and his 112.2 passer rating from 2014 when he won his two MVP awards.
Behind Rodgers' resurgence and quicker release is that both he and his pass-catchers are simply more comfortable in the system. Rodgers knows where everyone is supposed to be, and those players are getting there on time. But perhaps the biggest factor is that players are open. As I mentioned above, McCarthy relied heavily on winning one-on-one matchups, but LaFleur schemes guys open through his play calling, and as Rodgers pointed out in September, they aren't just open, they're wide open (via Packers News):
“I don’t remember a time in recent history where we’ve had multiple plays where we have guys that are wide, wide open. You know, the difference maybe between college and the NFL is, wide open in college is about 7- or 8-yards separation. Wide open in the NFL is 2 or 3 yards. And we’ve had some college-style guys open the first couple weeks."
Naturally, this leads to easy reads, easy throws, and the ball is out quickly. As we've seen, when the offense is in rhythm and Rodgers is in rhythm, good things happen.
Last Thursday, as the Packers took on the San Francisco 49ers, we saw the perfect microcosm of what the Green Bay passing game is supposed to look like under LaFleur. Rodgers was 21/23 for 134 yards with two touchdowns on passes under 10 yards. He didn't have any pass attempts in the 10-20 yards range and then was 4/6 for 171 yards with two touchdowns on passes of over 20 yards.
A lot of quick, easy completions while also knowing when to take those downfield shots. Which to Rodgers' credit, he's been much more efficient at this season as well. The end result in San Francisco was an easy win, but also Rodgers holding onto the ball for an average of only 2.43 seconds, the third-lowest time in the NFL last week.
Rather than taking a sack, throwing the ball away, or forcing it into a tight window, for the first time in years, Rodgers has players who are consistently wide open, making passes quicker and easier for him, which is turning this Packers' offense into a juggernaut.
As the Green Bay Packers sit at 6-2 and as one of the top teams in the NFC, it's because of their play on the offensive side of the ball. From Year 1 to Year 2, this unit has transformed under LaFleur, and Rodgers' ability to throw on time and in rhythm has been a big contributor to their overall success.
“I think when you put that all together, and you’re getting guys open on time, the ball’s able to come out. Obviously I made a concerted effort to deal it. When I’m playing on time and in rhythm, the offense I think can be more efficient — as long as we have guys open.”
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__________________________
Born and raised in Green Bay, WI and I still call it home. After my family, watching the Packers, sharing my opinions on the team through my writing and interacting with other fans is my greatest passion. You can find me on Twitter at @Paul_Bretl.
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Comments (17)
Ferrari-Driver
November 13, 2020 at 12:53 pm
Rodgers is putting up those numbers with only one outstanding receiver. I make the case that his competitors for the MVP all have a superior receiving corps and yet Rodgers leads in performance categories. RODGERS SHOULD BE THE NFL MVP!
Leatherhead
November 13, 2020 at 07:21 pm
I think that even if we had Jerry Rice, we’d only improve from #3 to #1. We’re doing fine with the guys we have.
Philarod
November 14, 2020 at 07:40 am
Agreed, though Wilson and Mahomes aren't far behind, and another couple guys are lurking.
One of the most amazing things I've seen in NFL history is the numbers Rodgers has put up over the years (including annual postseason appearances) with mostly a pedestrian supporting cast: average to pretty good receivers, poor TE play, sporadic running attack and a MM scheme mostly based on having receivers try to win one-on-ones, per which Rodgers had to often buy them time to get open, or "throw them open" with back-shoulder passes or fitting the ball into ultratight windows. Add a mostly average to mediocre D, and you approximate his greatness.
Now, we seem to have a better system, if not quite elite personnel, although good health of our existing players would make this system really special. (Then, there's the defense...at times, pretty good, and at other times, frustrating.)
Packer_Fan
November 13, 2020 at 01:50 pm
With Adams, Jones, Lazard and Ervin all back, this offense can keep playing well. The Buc game was a lesson when all those guys weren't playing and when Rodgers got spooked. It all fell apart.
egbertsouse
November 13, 2020 at 02:54 pm
Rhythmic, quick passes are the way Drew Brees owned the Tampa Bay defense. When GB played Tampa their defense plus inept receivers rattled Rodgers and he went back to running around playing hero-ball, with predictable results. To beat the good teams he needs to play the rhythm, quick-release game even when behind.
PhantomII
November 13, 2020 at 09:28 pm
ML needed to run the ball......A LOT to stop them from blitzing and used Dillon and Williams to give them headaches. That would have been the medicine. Packers are always shaky after the bye week. Coaches are too passive getting them ready to play.
jannesbjornson
November 14, 2020 at 07:26 am
West Coast Offense is all about timing and spacing. Hackett and LeFleur follow the foundation principles.
pacman
November 13, 2020 at 03:11 pm
The frustrating thing is that many on this site have been saying this for literally years. Doesn't AR read this site?
EddieLeeIvory
November 13, 2020 at 05:37 pm
is there any snow expected for this game up there?
we don't get to see enough games in snow.
and Jacksonville probably doesn't have any experience in it. maybe brunell & fred taylor do.
Coldworld
November 13, 2020 at 05:48 pm
Gusty wind and cold rain ... neither glamorous nor likely helpful
Leatherhead
November 13, 2020 at 07:23 pm
Rodgers likes to bomb. And he’s good at it
Stroh
November 13, 2020 at 10:29 pm
Hd does and he is. But this offense needs him to stay on time and in rythm to work best. He can still get shot plays w/in the flow of the offense. Basically when teams are in single high man coverage. If the D sits in a 2deep shell, Rodgers needs to stick with Jones and the running game to force them out of 2 deep coverage.
Leatherhead
November 14, 2020 at 09:22 am
Yes, and no. In 8 games, I can recall multiple bombs. Lazard caught two against the Saints. Adams. Tonyan. MVS.
But the plan is to use our offense to keep our defense off the field.
PhantomII
November 14, 2020 at 01:55 pm
Right. No Packer fan wants to see our Defense on the field.
Leatherhead
November 14, 2020 at 04:06 pm
Statistically, most of your opponents points will come when your defense is on the field. Even if it’s a good defense.
porupack
November 14, 2020 at 05:50 am
Great feature, Paul and clear case from your data. Much agreed.
canadapacker
November 14, 2020 at 03:51 pm
The problem under MM was lousy stagnant game plans - and poor execution by everyone including AR fighting the play calls. And he almost didnt want to hit the easy open guys early and held it and then threw it away. Now the other teams D put their ears back and rushed even harder as it was now a second or third and long. Last year we ran it better and he hit the open guys early once he got into the Lafleur play book. But even last year AR was missing some easy throws - the swing passes to the running backs etc. This year mostly he has been on target although he has missed Tonyon a couple of times Adams two weeks ago and other. But that happens. When he is on target and works fast and makes his decisions fast and takes the easy throws when they are there rather than holding it for something big - the whole team plays better. The only thing that I worry about is when he looks at Adams too much and too early and misses his early reads to the other guys. Minnie did it to us by disguising their Adams coverage.
When that happens we need to adapt quickly to get the running backs and tight ends involved to kill them in the middle. Adams and MVS will stretch them long and the middle will be open.