Packers Can Send a Message in Atlanta
Different season, different team.
By ChrisWanless
When the Packers take the field Sunday night in Atlanta, it will mark the second consecutive year the team stands as the opponent for the first regular season game in a brand new stadium. As with their week two matchup with Minnesota a year ago, Green Bay’s clash with the Falcons will be featured in primetime, on Sunday Night Football, and broadcast to a national audience.
Coincidentally, the last game featuring the Packers to be shown nationwide also occurred in Atlanta, in the now defunct Georgia Dome. That was, of course, last year’s NFC Championship, a game in which the Packers were solidly beaten by the Falcons. After a wild eight week run that coincided with eight consecutive victories, Green Bay’s season ended abruptly—in front of everyone.
While Sunday night’s game may be a “rematch” in the sense that the Packers and Falcons are playing each other, the Packers will enter this contest looking like a completely different team.
For one, the team is healthy. With the possible exception of Bryan Bulaga, who did not practice for a second straight day this week on Thursday, Green Bay should have all of their pieces where they want them.
That depleted secondary from back in January? Remedied by better health and a couple new additions. Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins are healthy, and Davon House is back in the fray. Even with the bevy of talent Atlanta features on offense, it would be shocking, in my opinion, if the Falcons are able to shred the Packers defense to the degree they did eight months ago.
Speaking of defense, the Packers are coming off one of their best performances in recent memory. Sure, the offensive front of Seattle isn’t the most impressive unit in the world, but what Green Bay’s front seven was able to do last week was impressive nonetheless. With Mike Daniels leading the way, this defense looks poised to build upon that momentum. Throw in a more creative and expansive defensive playbook, and the Packers should be able to match personnel to suit their game plan.
Offensively, the most obvious change will be the various personnel groupings now available to the Packers due to the additions of Martellus Bennett and Lance Kendricks. The Packers will also have a fully healthy Jordy Nelson, who was dealing with broken ribs in the last meeting. Despite sputtering early last week, the offense recovered nicely and closed the game out when necessary. With Aaron Rodgers and a full complement of weapons, the Packers can be a very scary outfit.
Sure, the way last season ended was tough. But the Packers team that will take the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium Sunday night isn’t the team that failed to win the last game at the Georgia Dome. Green Bay has a chance to go into an electric environment and prove it—in front of everyone.
Comments (27)
TheVOR
September 15, 2017 at 03:42 pm
The only message we'll be sending in Atlanta is how bad our depth is. Looks like the Packers are being used again to draw a huge TV audience, only to watch us play dead in opening another new venue for our opposition.
Bearmeat
September 15, 2017 at 12:00 pm
Exactly Jonathan.
If both tackles are healthy, I think this is a close game that GB will win. O/U somewhere around 50. If neither play, we're IMO in for an ugly Sunday night. If one plays, I hope it's Bakh, and we could still win, but it'll be dicey.
I like the defense to hold ATL down. Not to smother them like they did Seattle - ATL's offense is too good to be completely shut out for 4 full quarters. Somwhere between 20-27 points given up should be enough for our offense to win the day. Bottom line, this is a better and healthier unit than the one that got run over in January. Especially in the secondary, and I'm cautiously optimistic that our pass rush can be above average.
My thoughts:
With both OT's - Packers chances of winning - 70%
With one - 40%
With neither - 10%
Finwiz
September 15, 2017 at 11:55 am
Interesting take.....
I'll go with these figures:
With both OT's: 50%
With one: 40%
With neither: 10%
Numbers change if they were playing at home on grass, obviously.
Bearmeat
September 15, 2017 at 12:03 pm
I think it boils down to the beliefs: I believe ATL had a year last year that almost everything went right for them, and I believe they are due for a large regression. Especially with two new coordinators. I don't believe Matt Ryan is an elite QB, and I also think he's due for a regression. Competent - even very good, yes. But I'd not put him in the category with ARod, Brady and Brees.
All that equals out to ATL not being as good as SEA in my head. Now - it's their home opener, so they'll be jacked up. That makes it harder.
My guess if both OTs play:
GB 31
ATL 24
Finwiz
September 15, 2017 at 12:39 pm
You could be right and 2016 was a total anomaly for ATL.
It is possible, because in past years their D was nowhere near that good.
But then they go and get Tak McKinley and he's 3rd STRING??
That guy was a beast for a DE. Speed up the azz - like they need more.
I wanted that guy on the Packers.
I think they will be as good as their D, and with that speed, I hate to say it, but I think they're that good.
I heard a stat yesterday about QB's and pick SIX's. Favre leads all QB's in throwing pick sixes with 35. Brees and Manning are up there too.
Guess how many Aaron Rodgers has in his career?
UNO.... ONE.....1. Unreal
My guess is, Bulaga has about zero chance of playing...maybe 5% on the optimistic side. On top of the ankle, he's had the flu all week. So figure on one starting tackle.
RCPackerFan
September 15, 2017 at 12:33 pm
Bearmeat-
Lets also not forget that their first meeting last year in Atlanta they lost by 1 point. And we had Gunter, Goodson and Hyde as our starting CB's. It was a very close game.
I expect the game to be much closer to that game then the second game.
I like your guess. i think thats really good.
CAG123
September 15, 2017 at 12:12 pm
Here we go with the hamstring injuries. Packers need to part ways with Mark Lovat we have so many groin and hamstring injuries every year, soft tissue injuries are a result of bad conditioning! The year just started.
Since'61
September 15, 2017 at 07:20 pm
Jonathan - excellent post. The Packers are not the only team with hamstring injuries. I also do not believe that the Packers are poorly conditioned. Professional athletes in all sports work out year round in this era. Yes, they make take a month or more off after the season ends but they continue to workout in the off season.
In the past the players did not make enough money from playing football so they went home and took regular jobs to make ends meet. When they returned for training camp in the summer they needed to work and play themselves into playing shape.
Today's players arrive in excellent condition (for the most part). Plus they have access to better training methods, equipment, and trainers than ever before. The injuries, IMO, are due primarily to the speed and violence with which the game is played. Plus playing on hard surfaces versus natural grass has an impact as well. Thanks, Since '61
flackcatcher
September 15, 2017 at 11:11 pm
I agree with you 61 about Jonathan's post, and your follow up captures the problem with today's player culture inside the NFL. The late Gene Upshaw, worked very hard to get increased pension and medical benefits for players who retired before the players union came into being. The current union pissed a lot of the gains away in the current CBA, so they could get more vacation time off. Upshaw knew the concussion issue would bite the owners in the behind, so he worked with the NFL commissioners office to set the conditions for negotiations. Their reward, both were fired from their positions. I have no love for most of the owners, who see their players as expendable pawns. But even less for the players who won't act to protect their future. And now, it is biting both groups big time. Rough justice, indeed.
TKWorldWide
September 16, 2017 at 06:01 am
Totally agree, 61. 100%. (So that comes out to 161%.)
I also suspect (but cannot offer any hard data) that while today's superhuman, bigger, stronger, faster players dish out more punishment than ever before, the fact that they are so big, strong, and fast does not PROTECT them from injury.
Since'61
September 16, 2017 at 10:09 pm
TK absolutely correct. To me they need better equipment that can absorb an impact and they should go back to playing on natural grass. Some of the surfaces in NFL stadiums are basically concrete with a thin layer of "turf" over it.
The constant high rate of injuries really damages the level of play and diminishes the on field product significantly, not to mention the officials, commercials and broadcasters.
Thanks, Since '61
Flow49
September 16, 2017 at 08:05 am
Last week Packers were not going down with cramps and the Seahawks were left and right. I'd say that points to good conditioning and preparation by some of Green Bay's coaching staff at the very least.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 16, 2017 at 10:06 am
IIRC, most of the Seattle players with cramps were on defense? When the TOP is 40 minutes to 20 minutes, I'd think that might have been a factor as well.
Since'61
September 16, 2017 at 10:09 pm
Excellent point! Thanks, Since '61
ricky
September 15, 2017 at 01:53 pm
So, which will be more important? The SB hangover, where they had a 97% chance of winning, and yet found a way to lose? Or opening a new stadium, raising a NFC championship banner, and wanting to return to the SB and win it? Personally, I think the Falcons are more likely to go 9-7 or 10-6, and get eliminated early from the playoffs. It's their history. Every five years or so, they put up a great season, lose in the playoffs, and then return to mediocre/slightly above average. This is a team of wannabes, not true contenders.
EdsLaces
September 15, 2017 at 03:34 pm
If you look at players like Ryan,Jones,Freeman, D. Jones, Beasley, Neal,and Trufant and see "wannabees" you sir...are a Homer.
Ustabeayooper
September 15, 2017 at 02:16 pm
No matter what happens Sunday, Atlanta will have a difficult time returning to the SB. They are playing in a very competitive division and have to play the NFC north . They will have to play many games on grass and will get every team's best effort. Home field advantage is not going to happen. There will be a good chance that they will have a cold weather playoff game outdoors.Throw in unforeseen injuries, and bad luck which happens to most teams, and there will be another team representing the NFC in the SB. There hasn't been a repeat representative on the NFC for a decade.
Packer_Fan
September 15, 2017 at 03:30 pm
Just heard a report that both tackles are questionable. Disaster looming if Murphy and Pankey will be playing. Pack better employ the short passing game from the start and not wait until Dodgers get sacked four times.
Hematite
September 15, 2017 at 05:04 pm
If both tackles are out, our chances of winning are zero.
cheesehead1
September 15, 2017 at 03:31 pm
To win this game our D has to step up again, IMO. Pressure Ryan and the turnovers will probably be there. Hoping to see House bounce back after a lackluster performance. Hopefully it was just rust.
Archie
September 15, 2017 at 03:38 pm
I don't see ATL regressing to the mean. Their new coach last year is defensive oriented and went young and got great improvement out his boys. Their offense is as balanced as it gets. ATL is a very complete team, playing at home on artificial turf and opening their new stadium. Last week I saw many Seahawk WR wide open but Wilson did not have time to get them the ball. This week will be different, Ryan will hit his targets regularly. Pack defense will put up a valiant effort but will yield close to 40 points. Packer O fares only slightly better than last week and puts up 24 points. ATL by more than 8. And that's with both OTs starting. W/o either of them and AR is lucky to escape alive. OTOH, if Pack is better than I think and pulls out another win, well, then you can make your SB reservations.
Bearmeat
September 15, 2017 at 08:52 pm
It's rare that I read a comment that I disagree with 100%. This is one of the rare ones.
Ok Archie:
1. First, are you a Vikings fan?
2. Having a defensive oriented coach does not change whether or not a team will regress.
3. The Packer defense is NOT giving up 40 points to anyone while they're healthy.
4. The Packer O might score 24, but I'd bet the over on that, unless the OTs are out.
Lphill
September 15, 2017 at 07:12 pm
Unfortunately reports coming out Bhak and Bulaga out , Brice and Daniels questionable , so we dumped Francois and now we are looking at no depth on D line. Great
Since'61
September 15, 2017 at 07:45 pm
Sorry deleted. Do over below. Thanks, Since '61
Since'61
September 15, 2017 at 07:43 pm
To me the key to this game will be the first quarter play by both teams. We should be fairly confident that the Falcons are going to come out flying high in the opening game at their new stadium. I think that it is vital for the Packers to withstand Atlanta's opening blows. This means the Packers defense needs to make stops on Atlanta's early drives. If Atlanta is allowed to control the ball early in the game the Packers defense will become worn down and Atlanta will be off to the races for the rest of the game.
On offense the Packers need to avoid turnovers while simultaneously moving the chains consistently, regardless if they score or not. The Packers need to stabilize the game by quieting the crowd. Hopefully they can get an early score or a big defensive play or Special team play. I'm afraid that if the Packers are down by 10 or more points early in this game they will never catch up with the Falcons. On the other hand if the Packers can keep it close (e.g., 0-0, 3-0, 7-3) either way by the end of the first quarter, the crowd will be settled down and the Packers can run their offense and hopefully keep our defense off the field.
The good news is that Atlanta's defense is not as good as Seattle's defense. If the O Line gives Rodgers time he should be able to exploit Atlanta's safeties. The real issue with the Falcons is their offense. They have good RBs, great WRs and a very good QB. Our defense needs to control the run game, at least, and get pressure up the middle on Ryan. Ryan is not very mobile and the Packers need to make him move at least, if they don't get the sack. Improved secondary or not if he gets comfortable he is tough to stop.
If Atlanta wins they will have defeated the Packers 3 times within 12 months. If the Packers win they will send the statement that they can defeat the better teams in the league at home and on the road. Go Pack Go! Thanks, Since '61
Pauly
September 16, 2017 at 12:10 am
I say forget the playoff game, focus on the October game 32/33.
There wasn't any game on that playoff game day, the Pack was so beat up they were just some invalids showing guts and grit to be there. I think 7 more Packers were injured during that game.
In Oct 2016 game the Packers were not playing Lacy, Starks, Cook, Shields (Monty was a 4/5th WR then) and neither of the R corner boys was playing, both hurt with Gunter playing.
The RBs were K. Davis and D. Jackson, so no running game. Rip was best rusher.
I think this today's revamped, much faster, deeper Defensive backfield is worth a positive net gain of 4 to 8 pts on defense side of ball.
On the offense an improved WR core with Allison plus add in the 2 TE sets available, Monty at RB or motion out to WO and I see an additional 4 to 8 pts net gain on that side of ball.
To make the Packer's outlook even better, look at the STs improved punting, field position, dual gunners Janis with Josh Jones on other side.
Optimistically,,,, with AR settled and cooking, I am looking for a Packers 6 to 8 pt win.
A 35 to 28 win. (obviously with a decent O line)
It will be a tight and tough game in new stadium. If game were played in GB would be a 40 to 28 win.
Can't ignore the Falcons' problems either. Lost their Offensive coordinator genius Shanahan to SF and fired their 2 defensive coaches who had built their tremendously effective defense, which seemed stupid. Losing SB wasn't all their fault.
Now a new OC rookie is building schemes and calling plays in his 2nd game and who knows how well the new DC will handle his defense. All of those coaching changes have to be creating some chaos on both sides of the ball. Maybe we saw some of that chaos in Chicago last week?
All this is in the Pack's favor I believe.
Thegreatreynoldo
September 16, 2017 at 10:22 am
There is a lot to like in Pauly's post. Even during the regular season game, we had lost a lot of front line players. I don't understand his reference to Atlanta's tremendously effective defense: their D was their weakness. Atlanta has a ton of talent on the defense, but the talent seemed better than the result. A lot of the talent was young, so I figured that was the issue. Poe should help on the DL. Young guys taking a leap should help, if they do. Can the new coaches can get the talent to perform better? This should be a really good game if we are healthy.