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Why the Packers will Beat the 49ers and Why they Might not

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Why the Packers will Beat the 49ers and Why they Might not

After last week's debacle in Detroit, the Green Bay Packers are facing a must-win game Monday night against the San Francisco 49ers. 

To be honest, the Lions game seemed like one the Packers really needed to have, at least in order to contend in the division. Now the only way that happens is if the Bears and Vikings both stumble and keep the win count needed for a division crown around 10. Outside of that, with the schedule ahead, it's hard to see the Packers having much chance. It's also why tonight's game is a must-have. That and no self-respecting contender with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback can lose to a team quarterbacked by C.J. Beathard. 

So really, if the Packers can't beat this team, they don't deserve to even think about the postseason, especially a Green Bay team that should be plenty motivated after laying an egg in Detroit last week.

However, this is the NFL and as the saying goes, the other guys get paid too. And they get paid a lot of money, so the Packers can't just show up and expect to win this one. They need to look sharp, execute and for goodness sake, they need some momentum heading into the bye.

Why Green Bay will win

The fact that the Packers have Rodgers is really the only reason you need to say Green Bay will win this game tonight, the gap between him and Beathard is just too large or at least it seems that way. Yet, there are more reasons than that.

While the 49ers defense ranks 12th in yards allowed, they are 28th in points allowed and 15th against the pass. The Niners have also allowed 12 touchdowns passes and intercepted just one pass, two other categories where they rank near the bottom.

Even if Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison can't play, Rodgers should be able to take advantage and if Jimmie Ward can't go, the San Franciso secondary will be even more inviting. It would be nice to have Cobb or Allison just to take some pressure off the young receivers, but as Rodgers showed last week, he can make it work.

On top of allowing a lot of points, the Niners have struggled to take the football away. In the last three games, they have forced one turnover. Tonight, that won't cut it. This feels like a game where San Fran is going to need 2-3 turnovers just to have a chance. If it gets zero, Green Bay should win by about three touchdowns. 

And that reason is not just Rodgers. In the face of a 2-2-1 start, the Green Bay defense hasn't been too bad. It wasn't at fault for losing in Detroit. Rodgers gave away 10 points with fumbles and Mason Crosby gave away what felt like 30. Either way, if those two guys play better, Green Bay wins the game. It's really as simple as that.

And without essentially giving Detroit 17 points off turnovers, the Packers defense did enough to win, limiting the Lions to 264 yards and 94 on the ground. The Packers didn't get a takeaway, but it was a solid effort that leaves the defense ranked fourth in yards allowed. Green Bay needs more sacks and interceptions and tonight seems like a good night to get some. 

Why Green Bay might lose 

As sports fans, we all know crazy things can happen and nothing is guaranteed. Yet, it would take something crazy happening for the Packers to lose this game. There is too much at stake and too much of a talent gap at quarterback for the Packers to lose, without something bizarre taking place.

But unless Rodgers somehow gets injured or abducted by aliens, it's really hard to see San Franciso pulling an upset. Of course, if the Niners get some turnovers and manage to avoid them on offense, there is always a chance. Turnovers are the great equalizer in the NFL and being plus two or three in that category is probably the only logical way the Niners win the game. Beathard isn't great. But he isn't going to give the game away. He does have four touchdown passes and is completing 64 percent of his throws, so the Packers can't sleep on him.

In the last two games, the Niners have seven giveaways and one takeaway and unless that stat starts trending in the other direction, the Niners won't have a chance against anyone, let alone a Green Bay team, fresh off a loss, with a pissed-off Aaron Rodgers in tow. 

A Packers win seems like a foregone conclusion. But that's why they play the games right? 

 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (16) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

stockholder's picture

Why the packers will Win. Mike McCarthy's Game Plan is Followed. Why the packer's might lose. The Refs throw the red flag on every GreenBay TD. Crosby misses, and is cut after this game. The lights go out to disband an angry crowd.

Chris Peterson's picture

God I hope the scenario you laid out doesn't unfold tonight.

Jonathan Spader's picture

Chris, the worst part of stockholder's scenario is you could see it playing out in 2018. In any other year is that scenario even a consideration?

Lare's picture

Didn't know the refs threw red flags.

Tarynfor12's picture

" The fact that the Packers have Rodgers is really the only reason you need to say Green Bay will win this game tonight, "...

This statement truly doesn't hold up any more or to the level once believed in faithfully with unending optimism.

Rodgers is as close to ever being a part of the oppositions defense. I know and await the screams of my being a troll, but c'mon. Even before the Detroit , you were led to believe all is right with Rodgers leg etc. Again, this week, he is off the injury list and told of how his practice is ___ use the word you read if wish. and bad play shouldn't be coming from him. But just in time, the inactives list comes out and so are the pending excuses. Not to mention the already weekly standard of the Refs doing all they can to give GB another loss.
I said earlier this week I was all over the 9.5 points and SF. I also accept a loss of my cash would be worth it if this team shows any change for the better going forward. I stand by it but won't be holding my breath.

Dash Riprock's picture

I sometimes wonder if the Packers have come to that point where they have simply grown tired of winning? I honest to God hope not but it's definitely a possibility. We'll find out later tonight I guess because this should be an automatic take it to the bank win.

Lphill's picture

Cobb and Allison out for the game I guess with the bye coming they should both be good to go .hopefully they won't be missed tonight.

Dash Riprock's picture

Honestly, that's great news to me. I love to see more MVS and ESB on the field. Those two are the future. Cobb is gone after this season and Allison is not anything special. The two rookies could be so let's play em' and see what happens I say. Maybe even get Shame On Moore some reps.

jhalwas611.com's picture

The lack of any imagination on offense is the reason the Packers would lose. Any team can scout film from the time McCarthy became coach and see the same formations and plays. The last big change was a result of injured running backs resulting in putting a receiver in the backfield. The refusal to keep up pressure and score points then limits opportunities for backup players to gain experience against starting caliber players. [any backup qb] The defense seems to be improved but one must wonder if that's the result of fresh ideas.

Lare's picture

The Packers will win if they don't beat themselves, and if the refs let them win.

ILPackerBacker's picture

Cobb and Gmo missing the game is one plus and one draw, since Gmo is still not proven. Cobb was a mistake to bring into the season, who ever offered the trade should have got him.

All the snaps for the rookies wasted. In regard to cobb is see some tracking sites have revised his drop total down to 2 after not playing a while.

We all saw what speed does last night for KC, Cobb is slow. Slow and not quick. Rookies may make mistakes but we know Cobb did and Adams had 3 mistakes called out as 'rookie' mistakes on a pod cast here......but not by name.

We need speed

PAPackerbacker's picture

The reason the Packer could lose is if they play the same old, same old, slow start and bad play selection. Turn the ball over deep in their own end and the receivers keep on dropping passes. They win if they can run the ball more, control the pace, throw short passes to move the sticks. and stop the double digit penalties. Rodgers will do well if he gets protection and doesn't have to run for his life every passing down. And if he does run, hold onto the ball. No more turnovers deep on your own side of the field. Convert on third downs by throwing to an open receiver instead of looking for the big play every time. Go to the no huddle and mix it up to keep the defense off balance. It can be done. But the turn around to the season must begin now.

Thebearsstillsuck's picture

Why the Packers might lose. Because they are the 2018 Green Bay Packers. And they are not good at any phase of the game right now.

Thebearsstillsuck's picture

Why the Packers might lose. Because they are the 2018 Green Bay Packers. And they are not good at any phase of the game right now.

Lphill's picture

Breeland out tonight I guess we will see him after the bye.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

Well, ain't looking all that good, especially against a 2nd or 3rd rate QB. I smell disaster against Jared Goff and Tom Brady. Defense is horrible. Packers better get it together this 2nd half against S.F.

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