Why the Packers Will Beat Miami and Why They Might Not

Why the Packers will beat Miami and why they might not. 

The Green Bay Packers will return home to Lambeau Field Sunday after two bitter defeats on the road. The Packers went toe-to-toe with the Rams and Patriots, but after consecutive losses, they face a must-win game against Miami.

And this isn't one of those speculative must-win games either. Eight games in, the Packers are under .500. They sit at 3-4-1 and if they lost Sunday, they would be sitting at 3-5-1 with road trips looming at Seattle and Minnesota.

The bottom line is that the Packers can't afford anymore let downs or moral victories. They need wins and they needed them yesterday. 

In the NFC North race, which could be Green Bay's only shot at the playoffs, the Packers sit at 1.5 games behind the Vikings and Bears. Certainly, Green Bay has a chance to make up ground with head-to-head games left against both teams, however, they are on the road. 

The Packers definitely have some winnable games upcoming against the Jets, Lions and Cardinals and if Green Bay were to win Sunday versus Miami, plus those three games it would give them seven wins. Of course, Green Bay would still need 2-3 wins against Seattle, Minnesota, Atlanta and Chicago to make the postseason and with three of those four games on the road, that will be easier said than done.

If the Packers can catch fire, winning six or seven of the last eight games doesn't seem impossible. Yet, the Vikings, Seahawks, Falcons and Bears are all playing good football right now so it won't be easy. But beyond that, none of this will matter if the Packers can't get back into the win column Sunday on their home field. 

Why Green Bay will win

The Packers are going to win this game simply because they have to. Also, Brock Osweiler is starting at quarterback for the Miami Dolphins and as frustrating as the Packers have been at times this season, I refuse to believe Aaron Rodgers will allow himself to lose to Osweiler in a must-win situation. 

Miami also isn't a great team, even though the Dolphins boast a 5-4 record. They have actually been outscored by nearly 40 points this season and while the Miami defense is solid, it is not spectacular. The Dolphins are 18th in points allowed and 26th in yards allowed. Miami also ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed, so you know, if Mike McCarthy decided to feed Aaron Jones the ball, it would probably work pretty well.

Of course, Mike won't do that. The Packers will run a lot of complicated formations and use a bunch of different personnel to basically run the same plays over and over again. Rodgers will make some things happen because he is Aaron Rodgers but it's easy to predict that McCarthy will continue to under-utilize Jones because he has done it for two years now.

Davante Adams has been spectacular and you know what, Marques Valdes-Scantling has been pretty scintillating too, yet Green Bay is 14th in the NFL in points scored, despite being sixth in total offense and passing yards.

Green Bay has rushed for 100 yards or more in five of six games, which should be a good sign against the Dolphins poor run defense. A reliable run game would help Rodgers, who might be without Randall Cobb again. 

Defensively, the Packers will be shorthanded in the secondary again. Kevin King is going to be out and Jaire Alexander could be too. That being said, it's Brock Osweiler and if the Packers defense can't hold him under 20 points, well, then this team doesn't deserve to even contend for the playoffs.

Why Miami might win

The Packers have played better the last two weeks, but they still seem unable to play a complete football game for four quarters and until they prove they can, any team has a chance to beat them. Green Bay also keeps making too many mistakes. A week ago some critical penalties and the Aaron Jones fumble cost the Packers, however, it has been a similar story all season long.

The Packers either seem to start slow and have to rally to win or they start fast and can't finish. Either way, it would be nice to see 60 minutes of good, solid football. The defense needs to step up and get some turnovers after forcing just nine in the first eight games and the offense needs to find a rhythm. Also, Rodgers and McCarthy have got to stop wasting timeouts and taking the play clock down to one. It's starting to remind me way too much of 2015.

Ultimately, the only way Miami wins this game is if the Packers can't get out of their own way. But after what we have seen the first half of the season, whether or not they can do that, is still a legitimate question.  

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (44)

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Rossonero's picture

November 11, 2018 at 06:23 am

We need a pre-game speech like this.

https://youtu.be/f1yWSePMqsk

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Rossonero's picture

November 11, 2018 at 06:28 am

Miami's defense has been sliding in the wrong direction. As a matter of fact, their Pro Bowl safety Rashad Jones took himself out of last week's game because he was angry about something.

Look for lots of quick passes from Osweiler-- it's how they beat Chicago -- as well as the ageless Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake. Miami's offensive line is solid, so if Mike Daniels doesn't play, this won't be easy.

We need this one more than ever.

Packers 26, Dolphins 16

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flackcatcher's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:07 am

Osweiler for some reason plays well against the Packers. Will we see good Rodgers or bad Rodgers today. To have the entire season riding on the bad leg or your starting QB. Ugh. Yeah, Packers need this one.

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SJ EC's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:46 am

Doesn’t it seem like a lot of very pedestrian QBs seem to play lights-out against us for some reason?

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dobber's picture

November 11, 2018 at 11:58 am

Could it be that the Packers play to dare pedestrian QBs to try to beat them?

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CAG123's picture

November 11, 2018 at 10:11 am

How many times has he made played against the Packers?

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:48 am

Miami's starting OC (Kilgore) and starting LG (Sitton) are already on IR. Sitton's backup is doubtful for this game. Miami promoted OG Asiata from the practice squad. Gase already said their LT and RT are both questionable and will be game-time decisions. Gase is quoted as saying: "If you have a pulse, you're in the mix. We're out of guys."

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Rak47's picture

November 11, 2018 at 01:53 pm

Checking the injury report Ross and the only player out is Kevin King. Bulaga, and Martinez are questionable with Cobb. So I see no reason Daniels and Alexander don't play.

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HankScorpio's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:00 pm

King and Cobb are inactive. Bulaga and Martinez are playing.

Cobb is approaching Nick Perry-land for being the worst value on the roster from a cap perspective. Can't stay healthy much, doesn't produce much when he does.

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Turophile's picture

November 11, 2018 at 08:27 am

I think the Packers beat the Dolphins, and Packer fans will start to feel better about the team. Miami is 5-4, but the Packers are at home, with their backs to the wall, and they aren't up against Dan Marino under centre, it's Ryan Tannehill.

The real elephant in the room though, is further ahead. The Packers need to go 7-1 to make postseason, and I don't see enough at this time, to have confidence in a late run (as the Packers have done before). If they lose two away games, that is, barring a miracle, an end to being in the postseason mix.

Going forward, the Packers need to beat 3 of the remaining 4 away games,which are the Seahawks, Vikings, Bears and Jets, not to mention winning ALL the home games against the Dolphins, Cardinals, Falcons, Lions.

I don't see that this year, because there are no real indications that the key Packers (McCarthy and Rodgers) will change anything. With little or nothing changing, we can't really expect different results to those we are already getting this year. That I find a bitter pill to swallow, as i'm usually one of the more optimistic posters here.

I am beginning to think that The Packers get a new head coach after this season, to re-invigorate the franchise. I don't hate McCarthy, but he has been at the Packers a very long time and eventually things get stale, even with solid coaches (see Andy Reid and the Eagles).

The Packers have already switched both coordinators and the GM this year, there is no hiding place left for MM, unless his team goes on a tear, starting today. Currently my Palantir sees an 7-8-1 or 8-7-1 season, so unless Sauron has been meddling with my visions, no postseason, and probably no McCarthy in 2019.

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Rossonero's picture

November 11, 2018 at 08:56 am

Agree with you on all points. We'll actually face Brock Osweiler today though, not Ryan Tannehill.

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Johnblood27's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:58 am

"Leave him alone, he's on a roll..."

from Animal house...

"...did we quit when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?..."

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Big Moe's picture

November 11, 2018 at 10:41 am

" Currently my Palantir sees an 7-8-1 or 8-7-1 season, so unless Sauron has been meddling with my visions, no postseason, and probably no McCarthy in 2019."

LOL

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4zone's picture

November 11, 2018 at 08:31 am

At the bye week, this was one of only two games I predicted the packers to win the rest of the season. I think the Jets was the other game. We are beyond all margin of error now. We are going to have to win out or be out.

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Rebecca's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:59 pm

You won’t be far off with this team not quite performing up to our expectations.

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Lphill's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:00 am

Packers will lose if McCarthy shows up. I have no faith in this team right now , McCarthy has lost this team the writing is on the wall for him to leave but he will walk into the waiting arms of the Browns.

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Fire_Gute's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:10 am

With all the ex Green bay people in Clevelands front office right now I don't think they would want him either. Every time there is a fire Mccarthy article his defenders keep saying how we could do worse and how he'd get hired in seconds, but I can't see a whole lot of spots for him right now. Arizona maybe, Denver maybe, I don't see much else

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SJ EC's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:22 am

As hopeful as I try to be when it comes to the Packers, I’m bracing myself for a game where an “inferior” opponent hangs around, making it much too close for comfort.

The question for this game is “which Packers team will show up?”.

Unfortunately, we have yet to see this team play all three phases of the game for a full 60 minutes - while we’ve seen some flashes of our potential, at his point in the season it makes me nervous that we haven’t seen it yet.

While I think we win today, I’m beginning to think the playoffs are a tougher goal than they have been in years past.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:51 am

While I dislike picking teams that seem to find ways to implode, I am picking GB. Comfortably. Then again, I thought we'd squash Washington.

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cheesehead1's picture

November 11, 2018 at 09:55 am

Time for the Pack to show some fire/attitude right from the start. So many times they’ve come out flat. We looked pathetic and lost against the Pats up tempo first drive.

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Big Moe's picture

November 11, 2018 at 10:48 am

So... two first round picks next draft!

We loose to the Fins and this is what we will be talking about, along with speculation on the new coach!

It is time for a RELAX moment, a I've got this from ARod that says we can get to the postseason, but based on his body launguage this season he doesn't believe it himself.

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NickPerry's picture

November 11, 2018 at 11:08 am

Jesus Christ....

I can't believe we're still talking about Aaron Jones being under used by McCarthy. It's week 10, Jones is averaging 6 YPC and is a big play waiting to happen everytime he touches the ball yet we all know it's coming.... Jamal Williams will be on the field the 2nd drive and for at least 10 to 15 snaps that should be going to Jones.

Now for some reason I have a feeling that McCarthy will do the RIGHT thing. I don't know why or where this feeling is coming from. The cards are STACKED in favor of the Packers running the ball against Miami. Can McCarthy un-insert his head from rear for 4 straight quarters at Lambeau Sunday afternoon?

YES HE CAN!!! But Thursday night against Seattle Mike will insert his head right back up there.

BTW... Do you suppose McCarthy will once again defer to the 2nd half and fall behind 7-0 yet again after the first drive?

SIGH.....

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Tundraboy's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:39 pm

I share your pain, NP.

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Rebecca's picture

November 11, 2018 at 03:02 pm

We all do.

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Oppy's picture

November 11, 2018 at 06:43 pm

I think it's AR who doesn't run the ball at the LOS, not MM failing to call in run plays.

But that's just me basing my assessment off of MM always stressing the need for more attempts, and the fact the Packers ran the ball significantly more when Rodgers wasn't under center.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

November 11, 2018 at 07:59 pm

This is what happens when you don't ignore Aaron Jones.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

November 11, 2018 at 08:00 pm

Dbl post

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Skip greenBayless's picture

November 11, 2018 at 11:11 am

This game will come down to who can handle and play well in the cold weather better. Green Bay has never embraced playing in the cold weather under Rodgers because they are a passing team. The mindset of a cold weather advantage has not been there since Holmgren, Reggie White and Favre in the mid 1990's. It's a shame that an extreme hot weather team like Miami can go up to cold frigid Green Bay in winter and I still can't say for certain if Green Bay is going to get an automatic win. Those days are over. We need to get that back again.

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EdsLaces's picture

November 11, 2018 at 12:41 pm

Alexander pick 6..

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Fire_Gute's picture

November 11, 2018 at 12:41 pm

Unrelated topic but I'm watching Bears-Lions right now and watched Lions-Vikings last week. I don't watch a lot of Lions games, but they look terrible. How on earth have they just destroyed us lately

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GVPacker's picture

November 11, 2018 at 01:02 pm

Agree with ya the Lions are a Dumpster Fire but the Packers made them look like the 97 Bronco's a few weeks ago Jeez!

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CAG123's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:23 pm

Same way the Titans are destroying the Pats

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Fire_Gute's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:29 pm

The titans have kicked the shit out of the pats 3 times in the last year?

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CAG123's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:51 pm

Huh? 35-14, 33-16, 34-13, 59-0 all Patriots wins in their last 4 games

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murphy's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:50 pm

The Bears' kicker appears to have caught the same illness Crosby had against the Lions. 4 misses, 4 upright hits.

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mrj007's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:04 pm

Packers 13 Miami35. Packers offense will once again rely in a nowadays very pedestrian Aaron Rodgers and I predict a couple bad penalties and a turnover. McPadlevel will not have team ready. Matthews and Perry COMBINED will have 0 tackles. And Packers will have nothing to play for until next year.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

November 11, 2018 at 02:47 pm

Titans are kicking NE butt.

Packers could do nothing. ..pathetic.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

November 11, 2018 at 03:22 pm

2 More sacks for K.Mack and Trubisky kicked butt 148.6 Passer Rating! !

Future ain't looking to bright right now.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

November 11, 2018 at 04:10 pm

Where is Trevor Davis? What the heck? Activate him and he doesn't even play!

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Oppy's picture

November 11, 2018 at 06:45 pm

He's not available to play until next week. So there's that.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

November 11, 2018 at 05:17 pm

This Packers team is a train wreck.

Also, Rogers has 39 Throw Aways 1/2 way thru the season

The most he ever had was 37 in the entire 2015 season.

So, you can forget about Aaron Rogers only 1 Interception.

At this rate he will have 80 Passes he will have thrown away in 2018. Ridiculous.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

November 11, 2018 at 05:27 pm

OMG !!! McCarthy actually found a play for Marcedes Lewis for 30 Yards!!

Well, won't see that happen again until game 16!

McCarthy has Alzeimer's.

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The TKstinator's picture

November 12, 2018 at 06:52 am

Withdrawn.
(You’re right, dobber, thanks!)

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dobber's picture

November 11, 2018 at 07:01 pm

Some things are better not joked about.

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