Why the Packers Will Beat Chicago and Why They Might Not

Why the Packers will beat the Chicago Bears Sunday at Soldier Field and why they might not. 

It’s very simple for the Green Bay Packers. If they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, they need to beat the Chicago Bears Sunday at Soldier Field.

After three consecutive losses, the last two coming at home, the Packers have fallen from 4-1 to 4-4. And with quarterback Aaron Rodgers sidelined for what is likely the rest of the season, there is no help in sight.

Who the Packers have right now, is who they are going to have. So it’s Mike McCarthy’s job to find a way to win. Certainly, Green Bay is missing Rodgers and who wouldn’t? He’s the best player in the NFL, period.

But New England has gone without Tom Brady and it hasn’t fallen to pieces. In 2008, Brady missed basically the entire season, yet the Patriots still won 11 games. Last season. Brady was suspended for the first four games, but New England, found a way to win three of four. One of those wins even came with a rookie quarterback.

So why can’t Green Bay do something similar. For starters, McCarthy, as good as he is, is no Bill Belichick. And secondly, the nearly three games without Rodgers, were difficult. Winning at Minnesota would have been tough with Rodgers playing the entire game.

And then what made the Saints and Lions so tough to beat, was the outstanding play of their quarterbacks, Drew Brees and Matt Stafford. With Brett Hundley on the other side, it really was no contest. Rodgers is normally good enough to compensate for a bad defense, but without him, the defense and the team has been exposed. 

However, the NFL is a week-to-week deal. One win can right the ship and that’s what the Packers need, badly.

Here is why Green Bay will get it:

The best news of the week for the Packers is that they are playing the Bears and not just because Green Bay has owned Chicago recently, but because the Bears lack an elite quarterback.

Certainly, Mitch Trubisky has all the makings of a franchise quarterback, but he’s not there yet. He is 2-2 as a starter, but is averaging just 129 yards per game, to go along with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Of course, Hundley hasn’t been any better, averaging 122 yards per game. Yet, he also has just one touchdown pass and four picks, although he does have two rushing touchdowns.

The Green Bay defense is 22nd in points allowed and 25th in yards allowed. But that’s better than Chicago ranks offensively, 27th in points and 29th in yards. That means this game shouldn’t come down to the quarterbacks, unless one of them finally decides to play like a starter. If it’s Hundley, the Packers will win, but if he struggles and turns it over, Green Bay will leave with a fourth-straight loss.

Why Chicago might win:

Green Bay’s defense has to be delighted that it faces a rookie quarterback, but the Bears defense essentially gets the same thing. Hundley is playing like a rookie and the Chicago defense, which is 13th in points allowed and eighth in yards allowed, is ready to take advantage.

Green Bay has 13 sacks as a team; Chicago has 23. And the Packers have also allowed 27 and with Bryan Bulaga out with a torn ACL, it could only get worse. So that’s one big advantage for the Bears, who have Akiem Hicks with seven sacks, Leonard Floyd with five and Pernell McPhee with four. 

Another edge for Chicago, is the running game. The Bears offense may be terrible, but it is the sixth-best rushing offense in the NFL with the combination of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. Green Bay is 21st in the league in terms of rushing yards and 23rd when it comes to stopping the run.  

That’s significant, because if this game comes down to running the ball and playing good defense, the Bears have a distinct advantage.

The Packers have to hope they can rise to the occasion, especially Hundley and the defense, cause if they don’t, they will be stuck just playing out the string. 

 

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Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (14)

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Hematite's picture

November 12, 2017 at 05:43 am

Chalk this one up as a Packers win!
McCarthy and Capers have been laying in the weeds for the past few weeks anticipating this game to show what they can really do.
They both call the games of their lives and the Packers come out hitting on all cylinders.
What could possibly go wrong?

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ggritschke's picture

November 12, 2017 at 08:07 am

Capers can't game plan for anyone. After two weeks to prepare a plan for the Lions they didn't punt once. A Packers loss here will show everyone that McCarthy is a average coach on a good day and should be the final nail in Capers coffin.

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NMPF's picture

November 12, 2017 at 09:06 am

LMFAO

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Hematite's picture

November 12, 2017 at 09:16 am

This was all written "tongue in cheek" by the way.

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dblbogey's picture

November 12, 2017 at 10:49 am

I knew that. Others didn't. So there. By the way, fire Capers. For real.

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Fire_Gute's picture

November 12, 2017 at 07:08 am

I'm almost looking forward to a loss so I can stop hearing about GBs playoff chances. Even if the math put their chances at 50 percent, the real chance is 0. Of course we want them to win. For the rilvary, so we can stop being every media persons punching bag, because we have had about 3 collective football minutes to be excited about this team in the last month. Hell I'd love to play "bang on the drum" at level 11 about 25 times today with my Chicago in laws in town today. But no matter what happens today, none of my excitement will be wasted on thinking about the playoffs.

If we win, it's because McMuffin finally called a game good enough to win and Hundley also decided to show something. Capers might be able to call a decent game against a rookie qb with very little college experience and who hasn't played against this 100 percent predictable scheme before. But I don't think it will happen. Since both qbs are kinda a wash, it will be running game vs running game. I like Aaron Jones, but chicagos 2 backs are better. And they have a coach who will stick with running the ball if it is working.

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NickPerry's picture

November 12, 2017 at 07:49 am

The Bears have been a completely different football team at home. They should have beat the Falcons. They beat the Steelers and Panthers, and lost by 3 to Minnesota. They have a better overall defense than GB though I often wonder what a DC like Vic Fangio could do for the Packers defense WITH the current roster. My guess is the Packers D would improve at least 8 spots.

The Bears have a better O-Line than GB and a better running game. The Packers have the better WR group but as we're finding out without Rodgers that doesn't mean Doo Doo. So Trubisky has 1 more TD pass, 2 less interceptions, and averages 7 more yards a game than Hundley without even one decent WR? Where is Matt Flynn right now???

So what does all this mean? Well on paper it appears the Bears actually have the better football team than the Rodgerless Packers. I'd say overall the Bears have the better coaching staff because of how much better of a DC Fangio is than Capers. I'll be cheering for the Packers but just like every week without #12 I'll be doing it with one eye closed.

Bears 23 Packers 13

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

November 12, 2017 at 09:45 am

Vic Fangio would be a huge improvement.

"McCarthy, as good as he is, is no Bill Belichick."

Statements like this are totally perplexing. McCarthy is not a good coach anymore. He's been suspect for at least 3 seasons and Rodgers absence is exposing just how bad it is.

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Lphill's picture

November 12, 2017 at 08:02 am

Trubisky will light up the Packers like a veteran pro bowler , Hundley will dink and dunk , MM will say after the game he has confidence in his QB Hundley and in his D.C. Capers , sound familiar?

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wimiller's picture

November 12, 2017 at 08:40 am

is there any case in sports where one guy completely makes the team. AR gone and we are in a league with the 49ers and Browns. the roster is very weak with maybe three on the D side of the ball who could start on any average team. the receivers? without AR they are nothing to write home about, Jordy was a few years ago, but he is past his prime. with AR we are annually a playoff team without him, we are 4-12, 2-14 if lucky. AR not being there also exposes just how predictable Mac is, for Hundley has to go with what Mac calls whereas AR could change it, or improvise within the bad call. i have always been one of these slow and cautious types, not seeing much better out there to to replace Mac or TT, but maybe the time has come for a real housecleaning. we now know just how full of it all that talk is each August about how strong our roster is and how other teams just drool over our castoffs. but , turns out, we should have stuck with zombo. another depressing sunday in store, another year off AR's use by date.

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Tundraboy's picture

November 12, 2017 at 09:45 am

Reasons why they will win

Anything's possible

Reasons why they will lose

Hundreds Way too many to list here,

go pack go

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cheesehead1's picture

November 12, 2017 at 10:20 am

Unless this D finally steps up, which hasn’t happened, I believe we’re in for another loss. They had their chance against NO and DET, both at home and failed. BTW, what’s happened to Daniels? As one of our leaders on D he seems off the radar these last few games.

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ChrisPeterson's picture

November 12, 2017 at 10:26 am

I don't know what to expect anymore. I really thought Hundley would play better. To me, it starts with the defense. They fell apart against two elite quarterbacks. The Bears guy is not that. At least not yet. But they have to stop the run and force some turnovers. Offensively, they need to find some way to create big plays. I don't know if that's throwing down the field, Hundley running or Jones or whatever. But they need to get big plays. I have hope, but we will see. It's not going to look good if they drop this one.

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cheesehead1's picture

November 12, 2017 at 10:33 am

You’re right, it does start with the D and they have disappointed time and again. Hundley looks lost out there. Regardless, still rooting for the Packers. Would be nice to see someone to step up today.

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