Why The Packers Might Not Take A 1st Round Receiver

The Packers traded away the best receiver in the NFL and lost their deep threat to free agency. Surely they're going to use one of their two 1st round picks on a wide receiver on Thursday... right?

Yes, the Packers need a wide receiver.

Yes, this is a deep class for wide receivers.

But wasn't that the case last year?

And the year before that?

But this is different... right?

Well, it is different (they lost their deep threat to free agency and traded away the best receiver in the NFL), but that doesn't mean the results will be different.

Why not?

Well, for starters, the talent tiers for wide receiver may not line up with where the Packers pick. In 2018 and 2019, there were a combined total of 0 receivers taken before the 22nd pick in the 1st round. Things have changed, though, and in the deeper receiver classes of 2020 and 2021, there were 4 receivers taken before the 22nd pick each year.

If that trends continues, the Packers may elect not to reach for a receiver.  

They didn't last year or the year before. In each of the last two years, when the Packers needed receivers, they elected not to choose one in the 1st round because the position was already picked through. In 2020, 6 receivers went before they chose and in 2021, there were 5 off the board when they went to the podium. In both cases, the Packers, needing a receiver, chose not to reach for a picked-over position.

Maybe Brian Gutekunst will trade up to get a receiver before the top tier is all gone this year. He's traded up in the 1st round before, but he's never done it for a wide receiver. It's possible that positional value could also come into play.

Drafting receivers (or any skill position players) in the 1st round doesn't usually lead to winning the Super Bowl.

It's a passing league, but the most successful teams have found that drafting passers, guys to protect the passers (usually left tackles), guys to rush the passer, and cornerbacks to defend the pass, has been the key to success, not drafting wide receivers (this isn't my opinion, this is how the history of drafting has played out over the last decade). 

In short: it's a passing league... not a receiving league.

The Packers have had success drafting wide receivers on Day 2, but they aren't an exception to the rule. Wide receiver talent is usually readily available in the 2nd round.

Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Van Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, AJ Brown, Mecole Hardman, DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, DJ Charkman, and JuJu Smith-Schuster were all recent 2nd round picks. A little father back, the Packers got guys like Davante Adams, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson all in the 2nd round.

The Packers have two 2nd round picks this year and may very well choose to wait until then to try to fill their receiver needs. They've done it before and it's a deep class for receivers.

A lot of pundits seem to assume the Packers taking a 1st round receiver this year is a foregone conclusion.

After going two decades without drafting a wide receiver in the first round (the longest streak in NFL history), maybe we shouldn't be surprised if that streak extends one more year.

 

 

Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

 

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9 points

Comments (167)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:31 am

Good piece, Bruce.

Quite honestly, I don’t know what to make of the 2nd round factor. Looking back, Adams was the #9 WR taken in 2014, Cobb #6 in 2011, Nelson #3 in 2008 and Jennings #4 in 2006… other than Ted picked 4 gems in that round during his tenure. Two of the WR classes in those particular years were very weak

In Jordy’s draft year, there was not a single WR taken in R1. In Jennings’ 2006 draft, just 1 WR picked R1.

Ted knew how to find them, though. Prior to his arrival, Robert Ferguson & Derrick Mayes were the R2 WRs going all the way back to Sterling Sharp’s draft where he was an R1 selection in 1988 with the #7 pick.

Oddly, Sammy Watkins was #1 overall in Adams’ 2014 draft class.

*Quick Note: In 2006, Jennings draft, the Packers selected AJ Hawk # 5 overall R1, and Jay Cutler with the #11 pick…

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:19 am

Yeah G&G. While Ted drove me crazy most drafts, he was a Jedi Master finding WR talent after the first round and OL in the middle rounds. He was crazy good with those positions.

(FYI, Sammy was 4th overall to the Bills in '14)

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:30 am

I meant the first WR taken… my bad.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:06 am

Gotcha!

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:21 pm

He had a good group of scouts in the room with him. Guys like Schneider, Dorsey and Reggie went on to GM jobs and Gutedkunst over low-ball was a life-saver.

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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:55 pm

Dorsey and Reggie haven't been able to keep GM jobs and Schneider plays second fiddle to Pete Carroll on personnel matters. Some guys are better off in Riker's chair over Picard's.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:39 am

Input, not decision making as we have seen with Mayfield. Reggie brought in guys, but the disfunction at Davis Hall was just too much for any sane person.
Schneider snagged Wilson and two SB appearances. He's top dog, for now.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:07 am

"*Quick Note: In 2006, Jennings draft, the Packers selected AJ Hawk # 5 overall R1, and Jay Cutler with the #11 pick…"

Did you mean to say that Denver drafted Jay Cutler as their quarterback or was that just part of a quote that managed to make it's way into your post?

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:39 am

No, I meant Jay Cutler turned out to be such a great player for the Packers. Few know Green Bay’s Personnel Secret Agents covertly infiltrated Chicago’s War Room and wrote his name on the card…!

He should one day be enshrined in the Packers HOF.

Lol.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:23 pm

Touche'

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:08 am

Thanks...Good reasoning!

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:18 am

Watch everyone go insane when Gutey goes:

22 OT
28 OLB
53 DL
59 ILBer
92 S
132 TE
140 RB
171 WR
228 WR
249 WR
258 WR

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:23 am

Not "everyone." :-)

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:24 am

I will LMAO if Gutey trolls AR and the fanbase that way...

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:45 am

Then we might get a whole lotta Love

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:29 am

Lol... Imagine getting the NCAA WR Leader at: Pick 258 : )

22: R1 P22 OT Trevor Penning - Northern Iowa
28: R1 P28 EDGE Jermaine Johnson II - Florida State
53: R2 P21 DL Travis Jones - Connecticut
59: R2 P27 LB Quay Walker - Georgia
92: R3 P28 LB Troy Andersen - Montana State
132: R4 P27 S JT Woods - Baylor
140: R4 P35 TE Cole Turner - Nevada
171: R5 P28 WR Tyquan Thornton - Baylor
228: R7 P7 WR Dareke Young - Lenoir-Rhyne
249: R7 P28 WR Isaiah Weston - Northern Iowa
258: R7 P37 WR Jerreth Sterns - Western Kentucky

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:05 am

Or the NCAA Deep Ball Receptions Leader… Pick 258, Deven Thompkins, with 4.35 speed…

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:37 am

He’s smaller and slower than Gafford who runs in the 4.2s and has returned kicks in the NFL. 5’8 on a good day and 155 pounds. He has returned 7 punts, including one for a TD but I’m not sure I fancy his chances of staying healthy doing so in the NFL.

I like Dareke Young later as a ST and developmental beast, as I’ve said elsewhere, but as a mid round prospect Isaiah Weston is intriguing. 6’4, 214 pound player who runs a 4.42 and an excellent 40 inch vertical, something we’ve lacked for a while. Small schooler who averaged over 23 yards per catch. 9.98 RAS. He’s got some explosion as well as speed and size and he can catch. Needs to hone his route running and expand his tree and improve in contested catching, but this kid could easily help on the perimeter.

As I’ve looked at this draft class of WRs, I’ve changed my view. Other than a couple we likely don’t reach or who are injured and thus I wouldn’t pick in this win it with Rogers year, there’s a lot of players who are almost. Someone else said that they’d be great if you could merge pairs to make them all round prospects.

What there is is a ton of rawer talent later. This is a dream pool for draft and develop teams. So much potential needing polish perhaps but huge upside. If we weren’t all in needing receivers to contribute now, I’d pick mid late and in numbers (almost to the point of BDU’s receivers last draft above, If not quite). This would have been a heck of a draft to build a team around a new QB for 2023 and beyond!

The two above would be great pick ups even now, and free up early picks for other positions. This is a WR class where teams with really good scouting may shock with their picks and yet make out like bandits as far as WRs go.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:30 am

Thanks, man! I’ll check out Weston too. I do like Young.

Have you watched Deven Thompkins play, and learned about his contributions to those Utah St. teams? OMG.

Watch him. He plays TOUGH. Much larger than his size too. I like Jordan Love’s former teammate quite a lot. What a baller.

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:41 am

He’s electric. But it’s so hard for guys that small to make the step and survive. It’s not talent, it’s size, strength differential as well as a reduction in the advantages they had in terms of speed and agility in college. My comment was also a chance to show a reflection of how intriguing Gafford could be as an option/returner type, but he’s a long shot probably anyway.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:58 am

Oh, I know what you’re saying here, CW.

One guy who is a complete hidden gem is WR Bo Melton. Here’s my notes on him:

Since 2020, Melton ranked #19 in Power 5 deep receptions (15), #2 in uncatchable targets (23). This really says it all. Taking out screens, his Catchable TGT Rate was 7th worst in Power 5 over 3 year span. His separation so good it was in 86th percentile.

He shows good understanding of how to run routes and set up defensive backs and has some spectacular plays in his tape. A 4.34 40 at the combine showed he has legit speed as well. Melton broke double-digit tackles in each of the last two seasons.

Shifty. Speedy. EXPLOSIVE. ROUTES. SEPARATION. TOUGH. YAC.

*Just saddled with a really bad QB. Steal late.

He’s got all the gifts you look for in a #1 WR in terms of speed, separation, toughness, hands, feet, versatility, YAC, YAContact, Missed Tackles Forced… 5-11 189. #9 in YPR at 11.2. Target share > 30% Catch rate 61.2% (comparable to that of Alec Pierce). Great Jet with 6 rushes for 69 yds and 2 TDs 2021. 22 yrs old. > 80th percentile speed score, > 70th percentile burst. Catch radius 84th percentile. Melton’s 40 time of 4.34 is in the 98th percentile for WRs in this draft. Comp to Tyler Lockett.

*** There’s a case to be made here the Packers may prove to be far better off drafting Melton & Thornton over Watson & Olave…

That’s no joke.

WR Tyquan Thornton - Baylor
6-2 181 — 4.28 — 33.25” arms 8.25 hands

SPEED. INSTINCTS. STICKY HANDS. ROUTES. DEEP. POISE. CATCH RADIUS.

High volume WR with a 30% Target share. 15.3 YPR. 62 REC 948 YDS 10 TD

He IS the 100th percentile in SPEED. 72nd percentile in blocking. 80th percentile or greater in hands, short receiving, intermediate receiving, deep threat

Not strong on contested catch.
R4-7

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:59 am

I like Thornton and have mentioned him before as a mid round gem. Serious speed as an MVS type to start off with.

Melton is one of a number of slot types or developmental ones with high upside. I’ve tended to avoid them because, right or wrong, I think we are set with Cobb and Rodgers. I do like him as an option returner prospect initially, though I’d love to try Dareke Young in some of the option role, we do need a shifty type. Gafford is a possible option and I expected Rodgers to be. I’m still not sure why we never saw that.

Melton hadn’t returned punts: like Gafford he’s a kick returner. Our biggest need is on punts. Can either show acumen there? I think we need to find a good punt catcher/returner. If we do want to keep an option type, That’s probably their best route to the roster.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:24 pm

Velus Jones returned punts, but for whatever reason he gets zero love from fans here, which is ignorant AF. He’s an older player, and that maturity meshes well in the win now scenario.

WR Velus Jones 5-11.5 203 4.31 Tennessee
Slot/KR/PR/Jet 6th year. 25 y/o.

14.7/att PR #3 in nation. 26.6/att KR #19 2 TDs. Bursts through lanes with speed you can’t teach.

3000+ KR yds with 0 muffs!

162 Tgts - only 9 drops with surest hands in class.

Clocked 2nd fastest time by offensive player at Senior Bowl at 21.75 mph. Yet his play speed is quicker. Acceleration from line a sight to behold.

Routinely catches. Excellent body control, feet at sidelines.

Perfect #2 WR. Screens. 8.3 YAC Needs work on routes. Choppy steps. So fast he rarely saw press coverage. Willing blocker w good contact balance.

Tough. Feisty. Playmaker.
R3-4

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:16 pm

I love Velus. I’d pick him like a shot in round 3, even before Christian Watson, because he makes us better even if he never sees an offensive snap. RB would love him to build around. Sadly I don’t think he falls that far, and like Watson, is simply not a round one or two candidate based upon what he’s actually done as a receiver.

Watson is younger and has much more upside but is not close as a returner. Both likely go ridiculously high. If we do reach to grab one, Velus is the one that makes most sense: he’d help immediately in a win it all year, through returning punts and kicks.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:21 pm

I’d pick Velus like a shot at 28. KC wants him. TEN wants him. NO wants him. PHI wants him.

He’s 1000x better than Watson.

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:27 pm

Hes already 25 and only had 1 year of production after 6 years in college. Hard pass for me. They need speed, but just getting anyone with speed isnt the answer.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:36 pm

That’s just not true and a mischaracterization of the man. 3 solid receiving seasons, considering his transferring out of USC for more opportunity… Ascending the whole way. Come on, RTS.

THE POINT IS, YES, HE’S OLDER!!!

Maturity with a gifted WR add as a rookie will go a long way in this fairytale setup we face to reach a Super Bowl in Rodgers’ last hurrah?

Older players don’t scare me. I’d rather have some maturity and production as a rookie than to wait a couple years just for that, in some cases.

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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:56 pm

"I'd pick Velus like a shot at 28"

The Bears and Vikings would love you for it.

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UdderApocowlipse's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:51 am

I think this is hilarious and hope for it so much. "Fan" reaction to such a draft would be highly entertaining, which is what we are looking for as spectators. Entertainment. At least, that's what I'm looking for out in my pasture. I'd love to see this draft. And such a draft could be highly effective at football games. The AJ Dillon of drafts.

The article's statement that it's a passing league not a receiving league is simple and veracious, like one of my stomach compartments.

Sadly, you appear to be after my heart with this draft, BDU, which I'm not yet ready to part with.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:02 am

C'mon BDU, you really think it would take that long? Not taking one in the 1st round would set off about half. Going into the 3rd round without a WR? It would be up to 90% of the people on here!

I think it would be about the same if he traded out of the 1st round with both picks. A lot of people want to see him trade down with one of them but if he completely traded out of the 1st round? This site would be chaos for a day!

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:05 am

APC will implode Thursday no matter who Gutey takes... Lol

Imagine if Gutey trades down with both 1st rounders, trades Love and still doesn't make a pick the in the first day. ; P

I still think it might be very likely Gutey has a GM on a string for Love in a draft day trade. I'm sorry, I know a lot of people don't think highly of Love, but Lynch gave up 3 1st round picks for Trey Lance, and I don't think he's as good as Love right now.

Maybe Gutey waits until Day 2 to trade Love for a 2nd this year and a 1st next year. That would be a pretty fair deal for both sides IMO. I know people think there's no way we get a 1st for Love, but desperate GMs trying to make a splash might see that as a bargain.

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:28 pm

If he trades out of the 1st round with both picks, im getting his face tattooed on my back.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:59 pm

Thanks for the yuks, man. I needed that! ROFLMAO.

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LLCHESTY's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:36 pm

Better than getting his back tattooed on your face I guess!

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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:21 am

Certainly round 1 makes a lot of sense (or flip the OT and OLB).

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:25 pm

I might have to reactivate my twitter if that happens lol. #DimeADozen

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croatpackfan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:35 am

I believe that round in which they'll try to get receiver will not be higher than 2nd round. And they will probably add another in 4th round, then 2 in 7th round.

3 points
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Dzehren's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:46 pm

Sounds about right. TE is a major need no one is talking about.

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Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:38 am

The board will determine the positional order of picks.

My number one hope is that Gutey does NOT trade up to "go get his guy". IMO this draft has lots of value at each slot the GBP currently inhabit and loss of bites at the apple will not help the overall roster going forward. That has been done ad nauseum under Gutey and the roster is getting thinner, not overflowing with potential on the bottom of the roster (see special teams performance).

This draft class is different due to covid related eligibility rules. This may be the year to trade down with 22 or 28 and get a couple more bites in rounds 2-3-4 and pick up the talent that is stocked in this draft yet may be confusingly ranked by some other NFL personnel departments. In other words, let the draft come to you and expand the net as it comes.

Im probably just whistling in the dark where Gutey is concerned, he has his pets and he will spend draft capital to 'go get them", it has worked to an extent so far, but the opportunity cost is incalculable, you cant quantitate what didn't happen with lost draft picks.

With the salary cap what it is in GB, i see this draft as a "restocking' opportunity where in the very near future the team will need lots of quality players on rookie deals to be contributors and fill in around the very talented packer players that we have under large contracts. We have been lucky to have so many very good NFL players who deserved large paydays, but as the roster matures and those players still contribute at their high level roster management dictates that backfilling with young talent is essential to continue winning.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:02 am

Totally agree JB. This looks like the perfect draft for Gutekunst to hold his ground, or possibly trade out of 28 for more picks. Easier said than done, as a lot of teams at the end R1 see the value early in R2-3 as well. With high demand, they can drive the price up.

Many of the teams holding those picks won’t part with them easily, and are looking to trade out of their own top R1 spots, with no takers.

If GB can find trade partners, maybe trading both 22 and 28 is a good thing. Then again, maybe not… Depends who is there to be had.

I’m convinced, thanks to the many ideas shared, taking a flyer on Pickens if he drops to us might be beneficial. Some awfully good beef up top to choose from at 22 and 28 as well. If NT Jordan Davis drops, I run up with the card. Penning too. Also, depending on runs at WR, Devin Lloyd may be there for us - another player I would not pass on.

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murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:00 am

Good points GG…..We all have to keep in mind “it takes two to tango”!

Good article and it articulates my feelings. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Gutey doesn’t take a WR in Round 1. I would be surprised if he doesn’t by the end of round 2 thou.

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:58 am

This draft seems to me to be particularly unpredictable and to have what appears to be a large clump of prospects that are relatively equal from mid first into the third round. Other than who goes early, that also makes it harder to see what will trigger a team to want to move up into the 22 or 28 spot. Let’s hope some GMs have favorites in that range so that we do have good options should we not have a must have pick on our board. It’s not obvious, but one never knows what GMs covet.

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packerbackerjim's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:03 am

By and large I agree with this post. The X-factor is what the team of Gute and MLF believe is critical. My draft crush(es): Jameson Williams and Jordan Davis. You can book it neither will be selected by GBP.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:08 am

Agree JB. This draft, on paper, lines up so well for making a great Packer roster even stronger.

And it offers, as you state, an opportunity for a team in a salary cap cage to stock up with talent on lower cost rookie deals.

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:30 pm

Look at the positions hes traded up in the 1st round for tho. Cornerback, Safety, and Quarterback. 3 of the hardest positions to find elite players. I dont think he'll do that for a receiver with that position being so plentiful in talent.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:23 am

JB,
Took words out of my mouth and expressed better than I would. Thanks for saving me time on a busy Monday.

Just let the draft unfold Gutey. Push hard for value on every call regarding a trade down but only take if clear advantage for Packers. We are sitting in such a good position in the draft. Personally, I wouldn't make any trade unless I am fleecing a desperate team who really wants a specific player....but only if it isn't someone we 'really' want. 😃

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bigdave's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:52 am

I always find it almost unbelievable how we think the draft means a whole lot....Brady...pick 199 sixth round, Davante Adams...second round, Cooper Kupp...third round, Mark Andrews third round, Deebo Samual second round, These guys were all pros last year. I think its the luck of the draw. Think Tony Mandarich who was picked second overall. Hopefully we get lucky this year.

10 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:16 am

Doesn't matter when or how you get those guys, just get them.

7 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:26 am

Yeah, sometimes you just have to stand there, boldly believing in the pick, the player, and all your research, your staff… and make the selection. Get your guys.

4 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:21 am

Can't thumbs up this enough.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:31 pm

You don't want to get guys with high picks and pay them for 3-4 years to ride the pines. I understand the crap shoot. We all want guys like Johnny Randall and Donald Driver.

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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:32 pm

Amen, Dobber. Just give me good football players.

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baldski's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:22 pm

Remember Arod's draft day? Him, sitting all by himself in the NFL Green room awaiting his pick before falling to Thompson who could not believe it. Gutey, let it fall, let it fall to you too!

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:27 am

If you have done every possible thing researching the players pre-draft you should ALWAYS have a player fall to you at every selection if you think about it. However, so many players and variables and as you go deeper in the draft more of a crap shoot!

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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:52 am

Tried to go strictly BPA (IMO) at each pick...

Round 1 Pick 22: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Round 1 Pick 28: Boye Mafe, DE/OLB, Minnesota
Round 2 Pick 22: Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Round 2 Pick 28: Breece Hall, RB, Iowa State
Round 3 Pick 28: Alec Pierce, WR, Cincinnati
Round 4 Pick 28: Darrian Beavers, ILB/OLB, Cincinnati
Round 4 Pick 35 (COMP): Bryan Cook, FS/SS, Cincinnati
Round 5 Pick 28: Troy Andersen, ILB/OLB, Montana State
Round 7 Pick 7: Grant Calcaterra, TE, SMU
Round 7 Pick 28: Caleb Jones, OT, Indiana
Round 7 Pick 37 (COMP): Kalon Barnes, CB, Baylor

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Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:03 am

Holy crap!

You have posted 6 times ten to the third mocks and this one is by far your best.

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:00 am

It just illustrates how subjective “BPA” is

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:28 am

Not even 1 minute ago flipped to NFL Channel.

Ed “Too Tall” Jones, said Landry told him, “I don’t draft players for positions. I draft the best players. That’s why I drafted you.”

1974. #1 overall. No one else had the Tennessee State product ranked, at all…

* GB picked RB Barty Smith #12 overall… passing on R1 WR Lynn Swann, pick #21. That Steeler team that won 4 Super Bowls was built on USC’s Swann and a huge number of small school gems.

Someone told Knoll, “Swann will be gone R1 if you don’t trade up to take him…” Dallas wanted him.

Sharing only because I find this interesting.

5 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:25 am

Gil Brandt ran the scouting dept. That was just a painful memory, bringing Barty into the conversation.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:28 am

Ha! I’m sorry, my brother…!

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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:08 pm

No one said this is easy. So many sure things surely weren’t. Add to that undiagnosed health issues, freak injuries and the major problem of temperament/application that can make a freak athlete a dud despite everything. Being a GM is hard.

We can all move on and forget our howlers. They can’t. We should thank the past GMs in Detroit and more recently Chicago. They did as much for us as most draft picks we made and at no cost to us either.

1 points
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0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:35 pm

I like the Belichick approach. He will take a leader and a guy with a better academic record over a diva any day.

1 points
1
0
HawkPacker's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:04 am

As well as Barry Smith, who, I believe was drafted in the first round the following year.

0 points
0
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:45 pm

Three whiffs on Joe Montana in '79....

2 points
2
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:26 am

Which also means we passed on Lance Stallworth... ; )

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:28 pm

John Stallworth went R4 same draft. Pick #82.

2 points
2
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:51 pm

SMH... Yes, John...

Lance Alworth was a hell-of-a-WR too... Lol

0 points
0
0
Johnblood27's picture

April 25, 2022 at 07:11 am

child molester

Typical Twink Cities personality...

He was leading the team in receiving yards in 1970 when he was arrested for exposing himself to a ten-year-old girl. At the time the accusation was made, the press revealed a nearly forgotten incident that happened when as a Minnesota Viking in September 1966, he was charged with exposing himself to two young girls in St. Paul, and pleaded guilty to the reduced charge of disorderly conduct. He was not sentenced, but merely ordered to seek psychiatric care.

0 points
0
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:46 am

McSweeney added another outlier from the Crime pages: 1974 NFL Draft , Rd 17, Pick # 428. No Pack, No...

0 points
0
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:14 am

Also shows how each GM can have a different opinion of the prospects, which is the whole point. There could be 10 - 15 guys on our board in the 1st round that aren't on someone else's board, for various reasons.

There's so much we don't know. Even after the draft we won't know the whole story. We never do.

4 points
4
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:30 am

Yup.

0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:58 am

BPA always depends on your scheme and needs. You can't separate those things. A 4-3 end who's too small to play end in an odd front and not flexible/mobile enough to play standing up has very limited value to a team that runs odd-front concepts a lot. This is why those who bitch incessantly about teams not taking so-and-so draftnik's best available just don't get it.

4 points
4
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:18 am

Exactly. If I’ve got a young QB who might need to start at some point in the near future, I might want the best Speed/Screen/Jet capabilities I can find in a WR, willing to take him earlier than others.

That can prove to be some high percentage chain moving and = success, confidence building for a new offensive direction.

Gutekunst plans YEARS out, and drafts that way.

1 points
1
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:24 am

" I might want the best Speed/Screen/Jet capabilities I can find in a WR, willing to take him earlier than others."

Guys who can make the most of the high pct throws you'll ask that QB to make? Makes a lot of sense....they can do the same for a veteran/MVP QB playing out his last couple years, too...and make your limited deep options more effective by forcing a defense to defend the entire field.

1 points
1
0
ReaganRulz's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:05 am

I do like a lot of your picks but waiting until Round 7 to draft an offensive lineman could be a mistake. And my kid went to Indiana, so I’ve watched them quite a bit. Caleb Jones is a MASSIVE and I mean MASSIVE human being, but is just plain soft for his size. I hope we don’t hear his name called next weekend. Maybe for the Bears or Vikings :).

2 points
2
0
murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:18 am

Bird yesterday you commented on my concerns about watsons drop rate. Well he was over 20% in 2020 and over 10% in 2021. So, he improved considerably, but 10% is still high. I know stats can be misleading.

My reason for not wanting the packers to pick him is that I think he will take a few years to perform at a high level in the NFL. The Packers need a WR to perform now. I like his potential thou and if the Packers time frame was normal and not all in I’d feel differently.

2 points
4
2
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:29 am

Watson only had 2 drops last season and had an elite QB rating of 146 when targeted. He would contribute as a rookie on O as a downfield threat but also in jets, screens, even out of the backfield. And he is an excellent blocker. He'd be at the 2nd level for AJ and AJD in a flash. His return skills and gunner role for STs would make Bisaccia smile.

Can't develop size, speed, smarts. Watson has all 3.

4 points
6
2
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:15 am

He caught 43 passes on 58 targets last year for 800 yards, running an extremely limited and simple route tree. He still hands catches at times.

This has got completely out of hand. Watson had huge physical talent but as a footballer is very raw. This is like taking Jeff Janus and anointing him into Canton when he was signed. Watson may be a HoF candidate one day or he may be another Janis or not even that. Perspective has gone out of the window. A few months ago he was a 3rd day small school prospect based upon physical ability and special teams potential. He still is. Very high ceiling, very low floor.

Go get Dareke Young in the 6/7th. You are getting essentially the same package without the hype and post underwear Olympics crush (Young wasn’t invited). STs, a few simple designed plays and potential to be more in a year or two.

2 points
2
0
murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:28 am

Your correct CW, once he came out with the 10 RAS many jumped on his bandwagon and listed him in the late 1st round. I’d be shocked if Packers took him in the first round. He’s a boom or bust prospect that the Packers Don’t have the luxury to draft and find out. Also, taller receivers 6’4 + generally fall into the boom or bust column because of their length they normally don’t have the quickness agility to be anything but a field stretcher, boundary receiver Ala MVS. There are exceptions, but that is what they are. That’s also why you don’t see many 6’4” cornerbacks.

0 points
1
1
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:20 am

With a few more posts, I will begin to believe you really don't like Watson:-))

I am not anointing Watson to the HOF and my perspective is based on talent and college production, size, speed and ability to contribute in many roles for the Pack in 2022 with tremendous room to grow.

NDSU gained twice as many yards on the ground as through the air. Why pass when you are routinely moving the chains on first and second down running the ball? So his pass opportunities were limited at NDSU. Yet on those running plays he WAS developing his very good blocking skills.

Can the Packer O Coaches find ways to build on his amazing physical skills? Oh, yeah.

1 points
2
1
dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:41 am

As someone who likes high-volume receivers, you have to look at the next most utilized receiver on NDSU, and Watson outcaught him over 2:1...not even close. So even though they didn't throw a lot, everyone knew who was getting the ball when they did. It's not like OSU where they had 3 guys catch 65+ passes.

4 points
4
0
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:50 pm

I brought up Watson as a prospect we really should go after in January. At that time no one was talking about him at all. Then came the combine.

Why was I focused on him then? It’s simple. I was looking for two things. Players who could really help improve STs without being returners and who, while raw, had real upside to be more. I was also looking for players who could be real stars in future but were under the radar. I saw the Body catching, the very simple and limited Os. I also saw the possible upside and ST utility.

I came up with two names that stood out as real ST prospects with tremendous physical potential yet had really done not much against much lesser physical competition. Both turned out to be WRs. Both were laughable physical mismatches in the conferences they played.

The two were Christian Watson and Dareke Young. Watson is slightly faster but a little lighter. Both have huge hands, both can run the ball (Young actually ran more than he was targeted in his early years when they ran a run first O. Both are smart, do they can learn, both have good character and both played extensively on STs.

If the two, Young had more natural hands and is a better near line and deep blocker: having played as a runner as well as receiver probably helps. Both ran limited, very simple route trees and will have a steep learning curve on O. Both could run go routes now and probably deep curls. Neither is ready to be a front line receiver. Their initial route to active status needs to be STs. Both have the raw material to be stars, but not this year.

After the Combine and post combine chatter, Watson’s up from 7th to the 1st. That says a lot of things about us. None of them good. Watson is a STer who could be very much more but isn’t at this point. He’s a classic low floor high ceiling guy. To me, Round 4 is where you start to take those guys.

People now want to draft him in the second or even first. That’s just ridiculous based on anything but hype. It is particularly so for a team that needs contributions now, at WR but also edge and perhaps OL, DL, S. Pick based on what is not myth. Potential is only that not a given.

Of the two, I actually always thought, while it’s close, that Young was the more natural catcher and better runner both from the back field and after the catch. We can probably get him in the 6th or 7th. He didn’t go to the combine and there’s zero hype. Of course GMs may not rely on the scuttlebutt here, but there’s at least some hope that he stays under the radar.

So yes I like Watson but hate him in the first, and I know why I think that irrespective of the bandwagon jumpers.

Here’s some highlights of Young for those who haven’t heard of him. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FgcczIJuWGI

0 points
3
3
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:58 pm

Nicely done. Akin to a good reversal in wrestling..!!! LOL

No matter, Watson probably won’t last until the 53… and, there are others still available past that into Day 3. And, who knows? Maybe Gutekunst & his staff feel differently. We’ll find out.

2 points
2
0
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:17 pm

I hit on Stokes last year. Nearly fell out of my chair. Gute is less predictable than many GMs and few are truly easy to predict. Gute and his team also have a lot more information than we can ever hope for, film, research, direct contact, sources paid and otherwise. We also don’t know the team’s vision for this year and next.

The best way is to not get to the point when one is heavily invested in one player or another, but to look at who might help where and accept that there are alternatives to all picks and curve balls thrown by 31 other GMs.

There will still be surprises? Gary, Love, Dillon come to mind recently. I loved Dillon, but I never thought we’d grab him. Gary and Love were blindsides. Hand it to Gute: 2 of 3 I’m very happy to have and one yet to be determined isn’t bad.

2 points
2
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:30 pm

Funny. I had Stokes as the best DB in his class within our reach, mocked him to us R1. Wanted NOTHING to do with those injured guys, and none of them produced. Stokes was comparatively stellar.

Deguara the year before, but in R5, and Savage the year before that. Savage was different tho, being a total, admittedly blinding draft crush. I was just hoping Darnell would find his way to GB. When Gutekunst traded up for him, I lost it- out with the boys at our favorite bar, draft geeks all of us. Fun stuff.

Ha. Didn’t see Gary, Love, nor Dillon coming…

1 points
1
0
dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:02 pm

Jeff Janis was a local hero here and virtually all his highlights were him running long without a DB in the shot. He was a tremendous athlete and tested through the roof--and he's a smart guy--but sometimes the pieces don't come together. Do I think Watson is better than Janis? Yes, I do...but how much better and what he's worth is a leap of faith.

1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:28 am

Watching more of his film, the QBs including Trey Lance threw quite a few balls behind or off target that he snatched out of the air at full stride. He is not a project.

1 points
2
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:37 am

He still only had 5 drops all last year. (It's not like they threw him 5 passes and he dropped all 5...)

Olave also had 5 drops last year too. I would draft Watson over Olave 10 out of 10 times, and I could be wrong. Olave could be a HOFer and Watson could be a bust, or, it could be the other way around too. We just don't know, and can't know until their careers are done.

I'm still taking the 6' 5" guy who can actually help our team by blocking when he's not running routes. We can debate the merits of every player in the draft... 260 guys. We can also debate the 200 UDFAs too.

Many of the guys who people think will "be gone" by round 4 will go undrafted and Gutey will be scrambling to get the best of them too.

0 points
3
3
murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:31 am

Bird…..that’s still over 10% of his catches. That’s not the main reason I wouldn’t take him thou. The reality is none of us really know and just our uneducated opinions. We can agree to disagree on both Watson and Olive.

1 points
1
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:24 am

I read he had only 2 drops last year...according to Draft Buzz? Regardless, he cleaned that up and will continue to do so.

1 points
2
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:50 am

Btw - I love most of your comments murf.

I just don't think it will take him long to catch Bubble screens, run jet sweeps, and run a 9 route. Which is what I think he will be asked to do early. He's basically an upgraded version of MVS. The biggest difference being, Watson can actually run with the ball in his hands. MVS never looked comfortable. Ever. Watson is a natural with the ball in his hands.

I would also argue, even at 6' 5" Watson looks as smooth with the ball in his hands as Olave does.

I know we're just discussing football players and in the scheme of things, it's really a trivial bunch of BS. Gutey will do what he does and then we'll either be happy or pissed and maybe both.

The great part, no matter who Gutey drafts Olave or Watson, we can both root for him on Sunday's. Once they're a Packer, that's it for me.

2 points
3
1
murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:58 am

Trying to figure it out is interesting. The one I really think Gutey will take is Burks. He’s not right for every team, but he is right for the type of offense Mlf runs. The Huddle rates mock drafters. I took a look at the best predictors of the first round over the past three years and 4 out of 5 all had Burks going to the Packers on pick 22.

2 points
2
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:11 pm

When I watched Burks Highlights the 1st time, my initial reaction was I wanted him in GB. Then after the combine, I was less enthusiastic. I again went back and watched his highlights, and it reminded me that sometimes guys have timed speed and sometimes they have game speed.

Burks has game speed. Rice had game speed. As long as they can play on Sundays, I'll be happy. Burks can run those bubble screens and and we can manufacture touches to take advantage of his strengths, even though he is a rookie.

I'll be happy if we get Burks.

0 points
0
0
jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:56 pm

Watson has the mitts and snatches the ball, not a body catcher, fluid hips and evades tacklers on the move, takes the top off the double teams to the house, returned punts.

-1 points
2
3
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:10 pm

He’s known to have a body catch tendency. That’s not even controversial. Sigh, True love …

0 points
3
3
jannes bjornson's picture

April 25, 2022 at 11:11 am

Whatever the tendency, he tracks and pulls down the deep ball like Moss. You know my first obsession was Olave as Wilson will be gone. Started going back on Watson. He is only getting better. The body control cannot be taught. We will see how the debacle shakes out by Sunday. The Jaire trade scenario, will the clowns try to actually secure dynamic playmakers? They have enough #3-10 receivers taking up space.

0 points
0
0
Slim11's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:42 am

I would not be surprised if the draft falls this way for Green Bay.

The selections I disagree with are need based rather than your BPA. At #22, I think OT because the injury situation on Jenkins factors in. Nijman is proving himself capable and I hope the team trusts him to be a solid starter at RT. Bryan Bulaga was drafted to replace Chad Clifton at LT and we know how that worked.

I don’t see the need for another RB this high. If the Packers want Pierce, they may need to take him with their second #2.

Calcaterra probably won’t last until the seventh round. I wouldn’t mind seeing him drop to Green Bay at that point…just don’t see it happening.

2 points
2
0
mrtundra's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:54 am

I think Gute passes on WR in the 1st Round and goes for Defensive positions, there. IMO, Edge, IDL and Safety are positions that make sense at #22 and #28. Gute gets his WRs in the 2nd Round and later. Pickens, Metchie III, Moore, Tolbert and Pierce could be there at 53, 59 and maybe at 92. We can look for guys like Tyquan Thornton and Erik Ekuzanma in the late rounds, if needed. In Gute we trust!

6 points
8
2
frankthefork's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:47 am

Agree to be bold, for defense wins more games, but when I posted this same thing Friday there were 2x more downvotes than up.

Amos is gone in a year or 2, Savage is above average w/o a 5th year deal. Day 1 or 2 is for sure a safety, same for DT and possible ED or ILB.
GB roster has 8 WR's already, I see no rush with Watkins, Lazard, Cobb, Rodgers and Taylor as locks; Winfree, Blair, and Gafford are on the PS.

3 points
5
2
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:43 am

Agree, mrtundra, on much of your sentiment. Not sure about Pickens lasting though. I think the Packers have to be careful regarding the level of talent they might be passing up.

I’m a recent convert on Pickens, and am understanding a bit more regarding Watson - though still not sold there. More waiting to see how Gutekunst decides to go there. I firmly believe Gutekunst & Co. have their plans in place, and have been feeling out potential trade back partners for their Plan B, C, D, E…etc.

We do have a ton of picks with 11… could very easily see Gutekunst making his big trade back for 2022 in R4, because there are so many great players to be had… with still more well into R7.

1 points
1
0
Handsback's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:32 am

Green gold, Pickens has the talent, but I’m willing to bet the issue with his attitude is why they brought him in for a visit.

-1 points
0
1
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:53 am

Handsback, considering GB picked Eric Stokes R1 last year, I’m 1,000,000% certain the Packers scouts/Personnel Department know Pickens quite well. Figure, they spent years there watching all of it closely, including Pickens walking in the door.

If they want Pickens, and have the opportunity to take him, they will.

2 points
2
0
Handsback's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:39 am

I didn't hear that much chatter about Stokes as I have Pickens, but I'll take your word on it. The injury to Pickens may be the deciding factor. I don't think he goes in the first round and would fall in the right place in the second, so maybe he will wear the green and gold....

0 points
1
1
jdobbs's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:30 am

I just don’t trust in gute.

-3 points
1
4
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:05 pm

Well, the Packers do, so I guess that's all that matters...

"In Gutey We Trust..." Because we don't have an alternative.

I certainly don't distrust him.

1 points
1
0
PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:59 pm

I would think without a #1 or #2 WR....If Gute didn't pick one in the first round AR would just retire after the draft in disgust.

-1 points
0
1
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:06 pm

No he wouldn't, he has $$,$$$,$$$.$$ coming...

0 points
1
1
Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:04 pm

My dream scenario...

0 points
0
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:16 pm

Lol'd...

0 points
0
0
Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 05:01 pm

It just slays me that anyone believes for even one split second that AR specifically enters into BG's thoughts when he is considering the impact on the GBP and the draft.

If that is any part of BG's thought process, it is time for a GM search.

NOBODY is bigger than the TEAM! ...and the TEAM is the GM's #1 priority.

0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:29 am

MrT,
My hopes as well!

0 points
0
0
ReaganRulz's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:54 am

IDK….past history can be misleading. I’m sure GB had hopes of drafting more WR’s in the 1st round, but those options evaporated by other teams picking those players. I’m pretty sure that happened with Aiyuk. Every year is different and every draft is different and all we can hope for is good sound decisions. And I think the GM has demonstrated that with “most” of his picks over the past few years.

This year is a little different too after all of the Rodgers shenanigans last year. Rodgers will be more involved in the draft process and will provide his perspective. If this happens, we should feel a little more comfortable that we are in good shape.

Excited for next weekend!!

5 points
7
2
Guam's picture

April 24, 2022 at 07:55 am

As always, it will depend on how the board falls. If there is a run on WRs (a la Jefferson and Aiyuk), then the Packers will wait until later to get their WRs. If other players go first, the Packers will get one of the top 3 or 4 WRs with #22. I am not concerned as the Packers have a number of needs to fill and while WR may be the most glaring, there are lots of other good players than can help the Pack. Like JB27, my largest concern is the Gute keep his powder dry and not blow several picks moving up to get "his guy". This draft is deep and the Packers have many needs. If anything I would prefer a trade down and accumulate more picks in the second and third rounds.

13 points
14
1
frankthefork's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:53 am

ditto, said the same but was not well received here on CH

3 points
4
1
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:01 am

Frank, I could EASILY see GB picking 4 defenders Day 1 & 2, in those first 5 picks. Especially if they get a WR they like early at 22. Maybe, maybe, the double dip the position Day 1, spending R2 & R3 on D.

Plenty of good OL and RBs to be had Day 3.

We’ll learn much about their feelings on Bakhtiari Thursday & Friday.

2 points
2
0
frankthefork's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:44 pm

Thanks and agree but big guys coming back from ACL or tears don't seem to recover like an Adrian Peterson type as an example- and that's my concern. Last year GB lost 4 guys...Bak, Bobton, Jenkins, and kHill.
So yeah I think we can expect a backup or future replacement for each.

1 points
2
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:35 am

A zillion percent in agreement!

0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:04 pm

It’s full on crush time. You hint at not picking player X and some go into apoplexy if he’s their future Hall of Famer. The amount of crushing going on seems elevated this year. There is going to be a lot of angst late next week. The point is good regardless of the possible febrile reactions and no GM controls their fate except for the one holding pick 1.

1 points
2
1
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:53 pm

Yeah. Personally, while I’ve got some favorites I’ve spent a lot of time searching out, I know the talent available is pretty deep where we need it, and I trust this team will be better 1 week from today, when, with draft dust still floating in the air, about to settle, UDFA FEVER hits, and it can start all over again.

2 points
2
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:39 pm

I am quite certain there will be no angst for me. The more I read about prospects that fit the Pack...WR, OLB/Edge, OL, S, DL, ILB, even TE, CB and RB...my gut tells me the Pack is going to be infusing the team with a lot of talent for an already talented locker room.

0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 10:38 am

CW,
No matter who Gutey picks people's heads will explode! Makes it all the more fun to read here at CCTV after the draft.

Here we go....full counselor mode post draft! 😀

0 points
0
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:01 am

Bruce, great analysis and the link to the SB Rams first round drafting history showed emphasis on Edge/OLB, DL, OL, and CB. Trenches and pass defense. And trades out of the first round. It got me thinking...

If Gutey does not draft a WR in the first, the ground will shake! But if he goes OLB/Edge and OL round 1, I will understand it. Or imagine OLB/Edge or OL with a trade down with #22 or #28.

Or here's a pitchfork and torches scenario outside Lambeau Field: a trade back with BOTH 22 (Houston) for a high second and high 3rd, and 28 (NYJ) for another high second and two 4ths. That would have fans storming the figurative gate!

But that would make for very exciting rounds 2, 3, and 4 for the Packers' draft...10 total picks!

CHTV website would probably crash on Thursday night!

3 points
4
1
Johnblood27's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:06 am

Go ahead Gutey, BREAK THE INTERNET!!!

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:44 am

Yes. Hell yes, to the YES.

This draft is that rich in talent R1-R4, and beyond. Gutekunst could turn one of those R4s into some R6 magic too, where we have a loooong wait between 171 and 228.

IT ALL DEPENDS who we’re looking at 22 and 28. There are no trophies awarded for winning the draft….

No way in Hell do I trade out with London, Penning, Davis, Lloyd, Green, Pickens, Wyatt or Karlaftis staring at us… but that’s just me.

0 points
0
0
Bure9620's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:10 am

The focus on WR is just incredible...I expect the Packers to take the best player available.

3 points
3
0
BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:17 am

I bet the Packers take best player available at a need position...

; )

4 points
4
0
PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:34 am

I bet they take the best-player-available-who-is-better-than-someone-on-the-current-roster. You know, the BPAWIBTSOTC! :-D

1 points
1
0
LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:37 am

The Wolfman said something similar to new players arriving at Lambeau: "Welcome to the Green Bay Packers! You will be here until I find someone to replace you."

Never a man to say in multiple paragraphs what he could communicate in a sentence or two.

1 points
2
1
PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:33 pm

Probably because we don't have a #1 or a #2 WR.

1 points
1
0
Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:42 pm

People get so caught up in the idea of #1 or #2 receivers but with this team its about roles. They currently have guys to fill every role except a deep threat and those guys can be found all over the draft. Receiver isnt the problem people think it is. Oline is a much bigger hole with the injury concerns for Bakhtiari/Jenkins and losing Turner/Patrick. I wouldnt be surprised if they went oline with 2 of their top 4 picks. If you want to make the most of Rodgers before hes done, the best way to do is to keep his jersey clean. More time to throw means more time for receivers to get open. Everything starts up front.

0 points
1
1
PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:24 pm

Gute must feel the same since we have not had a #2 WR since 2018.....but that kind of thinking HAS NOT gotten us over the hump and won a Championship. ML is incapable of coming up with a winning playoff game plan nor changing it up in game with a positive effect. Having more WR talent is the missing ingredient but I will agree our OL imploding in big games from missing starters were just as large a factor. We need a couple OL starters and couple WR that are better than what we have already..... A #3 Safety is also a need. ILB upgrade rotation. DL rotation.

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HarryHodag's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:24 am

The Packers, like all the other teams, don't operate in a vacuum. They are subject to other teams' actions leading up to their picks. The first round selections will depend heavily on what the other teams do, or the Packers do, to counter those moves.

If Olave happens to fall to them at 22 then it's a no-brainer, like Aaron Rodgers did all those years ago. They will likely select the highest rated player on their board regardless of position. It well could be a wide receiver.

The Packers have rare opportunity to stock up players in areas of need, so I concur it's likely a receiver might not get picked in the first round. An offensive lineman is just as likely to get picked as a receiver, again depending on board ranking.

7 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:31 am

Agree with paragraphs one and three, but not with two/Olave. :-)

-1 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:38 pm

Olave would be a mistake. Soft and undersized player who doesnt block. Would have a hard time getting on the field. I would be shocked if Gutey drafts him.

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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:49 pm

So insanely one dimensional. He doesn’t even factor into JET concepts.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:29 pm

Olave reminds me of a Travon Austin type guy.

1 points
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Handsback's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:26 am

Good job Bruce! The Packers need to stick to their board, which I’m sure they will…..Living in Dallas area, I’ve seen the past two years the Cowboys doing that and having great hauls with their top picks.
I have to laugh at the Dallas paper in general but the sports page specifically. They went from having the most accurate draft projections to a mismosh of a Hope list that fans must have inputted their data. For the Packer they have them taking two receivers in the first round. Wow you talk about writers with no clue. Anyway, this is a cornerstone draft for the Packers, and will be happy no matter what….except for two receivers selected in the first round.

3 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:56 am

I'm big on 3-cone times. Good 3-cone are a common trait among higher end DB, WR, and RB. Here are top WR 3-cone times from the Combine (under 7.15 s, electronically timed)...

6.65 Calvin Austin, Memphis
6.71 Kevin Austin, Notre Dame
6.98 Bo Melton, Rutgers
7.01 Jalen Nailor, Michigan State
7.08 Jalen Tolbert, South Alabama
7.13 Alec Pierce, Cincinnati
7.13 Skyy Moore, Western Michigan
7.14 David Bell, Purdue

Not many guys here who are candidates for round 1 or 2 picks. Pierce and Moore, I love those guys (based on where they'll likely go). Moore is an ultra-productive college WR in the Greg Jennings mold. Liking Tolbert and Kevin Austin the more I see of them...I think both could be sneaky good pros, but Austin's lack of volume is a little troubling. Nailor just can't stay on the field. Calvin Austin is a Darnell Mooney clone and the ultimate tiny, jitterbug ballplayer. Love to watch his film, but don't see him in GB unless he lingers well into day 3. Could start as a designated PR and grow into more, but would likely never be an every down guy. Likely a gadget, in-space player on offense.

TE under 7.15 s...

7.01 Austin Allen, Nebraska
7.03 Chase Allen, Iowa State
7.03 Jake Ferguson, Wisconsin
7.05 Greg Dulcich, UCLA
7.05 Dan Bellinger, SDSU
7.06 Cole Turner, Nevada
7.14 Curtis Hodges, Arizona State

I think the Packers will take a TE in the first 4 rounds of this draft, but which way they go (another move-TE/Deguara type or a big guy to replace Lewis) will dictate what kind of player they chase. There are some nice TE prospects who are legit in-line candidates, too.

2 points
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HawkPacker's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:15 am

Dobber, I agree on the TE situation. They need a tight end in the worst way and one that can help in the first year. Not a fan of Chase Allen but do like one of his team mates, Charlie Kolar.

As far as WR's, you show David Bell of Purdue. I really hope we can get him. He is not that fast but he catches everything thrown his way. They also need a speedster, who will make a difference this year if he can take the top off the defense.

2 points
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dobber's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:36 am

Wouldn't be surprised if Bell is available later...and could be a real value. I think a lot of people get hung up on players in their evaluations to the point where they only see them as early picks and regard them in that light. Bell was uber productive, and while he didn't test great, at some point his evaluation and production make him a steal.

Kolar is a guy I like, too. I think he could play a long time in the league as a productive dual-purpose TE, but I don't see him as a high-volume pass-catcher in the NFL. As far as Chase Allen goes, you're chasing traits there and I have a hard time figuring where I think he'll be drafted. I've seen virtually every Badger game for the last 35 years, and while Ferguson isn't a speed merchant, he's always open and catches just about everything thrown his way. I don't like making excuses for guys (if they hadn't gotten hurt...if they'd had better QB play), but he played with a bunch of lousy QBs. He could really outplay his draft position.

1 points
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LambeauPlain's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:47 am

And he did what Gutey seems to value...constant improvement each year. Jake is a true QB friend. He is a good blocker, not great. But after he executes a block on a pass play he is excellent at finding the open spot for his QB, and will catch it and run.

1 points
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PackEyedOptimist's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:28 am

How a 6'7.5" guy ran the FASTEST TE 3-cone at the combine, mystifies me. For all of our talk about Jelani Woods, it may be Austin Allen who becomes the more Gronk-like pro.
I'm also a big Melton, Tolbert, and Nailor fan. I won't be shocked if Melton goes in the second or third round.

2 points
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murf7777's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:52 am

The problem I have with Jelani is there lack of route running ability. He seems like a plodder out of the gate with heavy footwork. My eyes tell me differently then his RAS scores. He just might be over drafted. I just don’t see the athleticism while watching his tape. If the Packers take him I hope I’m wrong.

0 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:19 am

I understand your concerns there too. With some NFL coaching and mentoring from Big Dog, I think he could be very good. (Love his attitude.) I think he wants to be great, so that would be why I would have no concerns drafting him. (I could be wrong about him too though.) Lol

2 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:08 am

I love Austin Allen. I must have drafted that kid 200 times in the last 4 months in simulations. Think he's the type that will be where he's suppose to be, when he's suppose to be there.

Would love to see him in Green and Gold.

I like Bo Melton too.

One guy nobody has said a word about: Jerreth Sterns... He lead the NCAA in receiving last year.

150 Receptions for 1,902 yards and a long of 74, with 17 TDs. Sounds pretty good doesn't he?

*That is just last year, not a career... ; ) The Hilltopper balled out!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mH_M04lx2rs

-1 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:04 pm

I have…

From my notes:

WR Jarreth Sterns - WKU
5-9 195 4.52
PRODUCTIVE: 150 receptions 2021 3rd most in FBS history.

SPEED. HANDS. ROUTES. Savvy. Finds spots in zones.

DEVOTED to craft. INSTINCTS.
370 rec 3873 yds 10.5 ypc 35 TDs
R7/UDFA

All the smallies have that uphill battle of proving they belong in the NFL. I think there are a few in this draft worthy of a selection.

btw, BirdDogUni, Melton will be a steal. Just shared my notes a few posts previous.

2 points
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frankthefork's picture

April 24, 2022 at 01:33 pm

Thanks, and agree Dobs this is great stuff with a few day 2 and 3ers- they are ballers.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:12 pm

Go with 3 cone as a leader and you will have a preponderance of smaller slots. I agree that a poor three cone, with other explosion measures such as 10 yards and broad jump is a red flag unless you just want a deep speedster.

That’s why players like Burks and Bell scare me. In the NFL, good skills and attitude can be rendered worthless by marginal athleticism. That’s one reason why many college stars and CFL ones never make it. One could cite Kumerow as a recent example, Bagelton too. They’d be great second teamers if one existed.

0 points
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greengold's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:44 pm

While TE/H Chig Okonkwo 6-2 238 out of Maryland, DNP’d the 3-Cone, he did post the fastest 40 time for TEs. I like him a ton, and consider him more of that big, TOUGH WR-Type, reminiscent of Deebo and Mecole Hardman - BUT BIGGER than both. Chig also is likely the best blocker in the class.

Another player I really like at WR is Erik Ezukanma 6-3 220 Texas Tech. Same kind of cut and TOUGH. His Pro-Day 3-Cone 7.20 was solid for such a big dude.

I think this team needs that DAWG mentality at WR AND TE, as opposed to the tall guys who easily get knocked off their stride.

No more Sternbergers. No more MVSs. We don’t need armies of 6-5 WRs. This Packers team needs BOTH speed & toughness at the skill positions. QUICKS!!! I want those blockers for our run game. Helps too when both of these big players can JET.

Watch both of these dudes on film. Man, we just haven’t seen that kind of toughness in a while. Elusive, powerful, fast WITH quicks. Ton of Missed Tackles Forced. That’s important at the NFL level. Real competitors you can count on to make the tough catch, get the tough yards.

Erik Ezukanma was ranked #2 overall behind Velus Jones in After Catch Receiving Production. Better than Trey Burks, and the rest of the R1 prospects.

1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 11:02 am

Great analysis Dobber!

Regarding Calvin...so intriguing on how he could be used. Definitely a gadget player! He would for sure be a luxury pick and not sure Gutey would pull that trigger. I would love it if he did draft him though! If Lefleur truly wants to implement (and if Rodgers runs the plays) there is NO ONE in the draft that would be able to cause such pre-snap "illusion of complexity" concept LeFleur talks about. Calvin would create holy hell on defenses with his 4.32 speed and his jitter bug change of direction. He would break CB's ankles with his change of direction. There would be no one more fun watching and offense would be electrifying!

Player like Calvin is not someone the Packers would normally draft. He likely would go around the 12-20th spot in round 3, but maybe higher. That is pretty high to take a gadget player unless MLF had plans to use him a lot. He can take the top off defenses for sure but small at 5'8" or so. If they took Calvin they definitely would need a long primary receiver like Pickens, Burks, Watson, Pierce, to compliment him. Then maybe still select another WR in rounds 4-6.

He would be a luxury pick but possibly turn out like a Tyreek Hill type (lets see if KC goes after him to replace Hill). If I was the GM I'd focus on defense at top of draft but then would draft heavily at WR starting in round 2. If at all possible I'd try drafting a guy like Calvin as that added spark plug who changes the offense dramatically. He would be a great slot WR. Can he be trained to be a Special Team's star? Lot to think about and one of my EMOTIONAL favorites!

1 points
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Pantz_Burp's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:25 am

I know it may be challenging for the Packers to host the NFL Draft but what an excuse to take in the Draft with fellow Packer backers. A whole lot of laughter, banter, a few tears and a bunch of stories through the years to kick around.

That would be awesome!

2 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:31 am

A 2nd round pick means 2-3 years to be productive. THE reason to take in the first round IS better chance of a day 1 starter. Gute NOT moving up to #20 and picking Jefferson has already cost us 2 Super Bowl appearances. This draft is a hodge podge of all sorts with no true top tier #1 WR except the injured Williams. I think we have some good ones from run first teams that already block well and will explode onto the scene when top tier QB play is added to the mix (Christian Watson), (Pierce). Gute not picking up as you said 2nd round WR's his entire tenure has limited our offense when our run game is stuffed and we don't have quality WR's on hand. Having one #1 WR and zero #2 is a poor mix.

-1 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:36 pm

Thats not true. Theres many examples of 2nd round receivers being good right away and even more examples of 1st round receivers who cant even get on the field, let alone make a difference. Where a guy is drafted means absolutely nothing once the pads go on.

2 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:06 pm

Green Bay has no lofty history of your rosey picture of making a day 1 starter at WR from the 2nd round. That is the point.

1 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:16 pm

Remember, some of the Fans are members of the Flat-Earth Society. Get the blue chips.

2 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 11:25 am

Jannes...what type of gummies you chewing on today?

That was funny!

0 points
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Jared's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:26 pm

He moved up to get Jefferson but the Vikings beat him to the punch. Remember you need two to tango and how much are/were we willing to give up to get that spot?

1 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 25, 2022 at 11:38 am

Agreed! Plus, NO ONE expected Jefferson to be that good or he would have been drafted higher.

The following isn't measurable unfortunately but we all know Rodgers significantly ratcheted up his motivation and game after the 2020 draft. Significantly!

While we will never know my question would be...with Rodgers plodding along at his pre-2020/2021 QB level if he had Jefferson in 2020/2021 would Rodgers be better than the very focused and motivated Rodgers we got after the Jordan Love selection without Jefferson? That is the billion dollar question and there is no way to answer that. In my humble opinion Gutey pulled off a master piece decision drafting Love. He already won with selecting Love by motivating Rodgers to two consecutive NFL MVP's. The final chaper which will be the cherry on top is if Love develops into a top QB for the Packers. While the pro-Rodgers, and anti-Love group won't agree Love may go down as Guteys best draft choice ever. We shall know in the near future one way or another. Go ahead...down vote me! 😀

0 points
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Reghamster's picture

April 24, 2022 at 11:57 am

Two or three points not mentioned recently regarding the draft for the Packers. One is that the Packers only have I believe 5 picks next year so I am guessing they may at some point draft down and pick up a few draft picks for next year around the mid level. Gutyt probably wants around 8 or 9 picks this yea and probably something g similar next year . Gutey likes to move up and then down to ascertain around 9 picks with more higher obviously if possible . Gutey does seem to have his crushes like a lot of cheeseheads on here .
The past experiences with Gutey lead one to think that they will draft an edge and a safety or multiple positions Dbs early. He rarely picks ILBs or DLs early. Secondly , there is a good case for Gutey to consid trading picks for Terry McLaurin or perhaps another free agent ifo the asking price is not too exorbitant . It is worth considering how long it takes to get most WR up to snuff. Consider how badly the 3 WR draft of Morant ESQ and even MVS went We only have AR for a few more years . Dickens stands out as the no. 1 choice for the Pack of the big names . Watson is a bust not a boom . Too old and too many drops plus limited Jig school experience. One article I read recently detailed how receivers who were Seniors and older didnt succeed as well in the NFL which I can believe considering the w plus years needed to develop most of them.
Final ly , they will pick a TE and maybe a late pick Fullback/ Hb type and they will be considered receiver. I do think the Packers will nab at least 2 WRS and 2 OLS but after round 1 in both cases Lately the buzz about TEs is that those with high RAS succeed better than those with out . Also Sternberger will have taught them to tread cautiously when trying to choose and convert draft choices . Sternberger only had 1 hear as a TE. .

-5 points
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WestWi_Packfan's picture

April 24, 2022 at 12:29 pm

No WR in the first round when we lost 2 starters and a HOF WR? If this was Ted Thompson I would agree that this might happen but Gute seems to get it that having a real talent at that position comes in handy is you have a HOF QB and your offense depends on his arm. Not only do I think they will pick a WR in the 1st round, I think we will see two of them in the top 3 rounds

1 points
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packer132's picture

April 24, 2022 at 08:52 pm

I disagree. LaFleur's offense does better when it's balanced and there is more play action and sweeps. They have Lazard, Watkins, Cobb, Amari, plus Winfree and Taylor. Add 2-3 draft picks and that's a full squad. Add in Dillon, Jones, Hill, Lewis, and Tonyan and you don't need a HOF WR. I trust Gute to pick the best player and think the first two picks will be OL and edge. Probably a WR in the 2nd round and again in 3rd/ 5th round.

2 points
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Return_To_Sanity's picture

April 24, 2022 at 02:33 pm

David Bell in the 2nd round. Would be another pick most fans absolutely hate until he becomes a superstar and then they all love him.

-5 points
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Littlejim51's picture

April 24, 2022 at 03:53 pm

Thanks for getting packers fans for the what if
If we get George Pickens and Alex pierce in the 2 nd I’d be a lot happier then reaching for a WR in the first
I trust the packers personnel to make the right decisions whether they go edge and safety or idl I’m good with it and packers fan get over yourselves

2 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 04:12 pm

The packers pick SOOOOOOOOO late they either have to move down from 28 or they have zero chance of getting a decent WR in the second round at all.

-3 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

April 25, 2022 at 11:00 am

Too much sense for some of the Herd. WR by #28-30 or into 35, maybe a guy is still there. The other guys as they fall will be more one-dimensional and some projects. Get 'em High. Just say no to injured guys. Not even a 50/50 on their future performance, until the player heals?

0 points
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PhantomII's picture

April 24, 2022 at 09:43 pm

Remember this.....if you get a WR in the 2nd you'll be reaching for a checkbook a year earlier to the tune of 25-30 mill if they're good.

-2 points
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ImaPayne's picture

April 24, 2022 at 10:24 pm

Packers play cheap ball due to Rodgers eating up a big chunk of money. thus they covet in drafters, not first rounders. High first rounders cost to dam much. I would not be shocked that Gutt thinks like a lot of you, good receivers in second and third, go for d, and online, fill holes, think about who we may lose next year and get his replacement now.

0 points
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