Why Packers Will Beat Seattle and Why They Might Not

For the first time since hosting the New York Giants in the Wildcard round of 2016, the Green Bay Packers will be back in a playoff game at Lambeau Field. 

Awaiting them will be the Seattle Seahawks as the two teams get set for what could be another playoff classic.

This will be the second playoff meeting this decade between the Packers and Seahawks, who also met in 2003 and 2007. 

Both of those games were at Lambeau and both times, Green Bay came out on top. Al Harris had the famous pick-6 and the other was the snow game in which Ryan Grant ran all over Seattle, getting the Packers to the NFC title game.

That's the prize again this week as both the Packers and Seahawks are looking to make the trip to San Francisco with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.

For Green Bay, it's been a magical season. Few expected 13-3 when Matt LaFleur was hired. However, a vastly improved defense, as well as solid but not spectacular play from Rodgers, helped the Packers win a lot of close games that they weren't able to in the past.

For the first time in years, the defense has actually shown an ability to close out games. Rodgers hasn't been brilliant all year, yet he has been great at times and certainly clutch when needed.

And that's what playoff football is all about, being clutch when it matters the most. Look at the Titans, no one expected them to be a win away from the Super Bowl, yet here they are.

Green Bay needs one win to join them and here's why the Packers will get it and why they might not:

Why Green Bay Will win

This is a really tough call and the one thing you know is that the Packers and Seahawks tend to play classicis in the playoffs, so expect another Sunday in the snow and cold.

The weather may be an advantage for Green Bay, although Seattle is used to playing in the wet and cold, but Lambeau certainly gives the team an edge, as the Packers have always been difficut to beat at home with Rodgers under center.

The thing that really gives me confidence though is the defense and more specifically, the pass rush.

Seattle's offensive line is banged up and that's not a good recipe for success against ZaDarius Smith and Preston Smith. Kenny Clark is questionable, so that's something to watch but against the run and the pass, Green Bay should be able to own the trenches.

The question is actually getting Wilson to the ground. He's crafty, sneaky and he has tormented Green Bay for years, although he has struggled mightily at Lambeau, throwing tons of picks and having yet to win.

On the other side, Seattle does have a fierce pass rush too. However, with David Bakhtiari and hopefully, Bryan Bulaga, who practiced the last few days, the Packers should be able to hold up.

Both teams are evenly matched and each squad has dynamic playmakers on offense. 

Yet, the Packers have the better offensive line and despite Marshawn Lynch coming back, the much better running game. As long as Jones and Jamaal Williams can provide some balance for Rodgers, his job should be much easier and while it won't be easy to score, Rodgers won't have the light up the scoreboard to win.

20-24 points should do it and as long as the Green Bay O-line shows up, along with Rodgers, Jones and Adams, you have to feel good about the Packers chances to survive and advance.

Why Green Bay might lose

Seatte can absolutely win this game, which is why they are just a 3-point dog. Wilson is clutch and when you have a quarterback like that and a defense like Seattle's you are going to have a chance.

D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and the deep ball are also particuarly scary. Wilson throws a great deep ball and even though the Packers defense has been much improved, a couple of bombs could easily change the game.

And while Wilson will struggle at times, he's a magician and if he's not pressured, he will find a way to tear up the Packers secondary.

Like in most playoff games, there is a strong chance it will come down to turnovers.

Baltimore looked like the best team in football all season long. Then turnovers, Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill happened. Mistakes on offense and giving up big plays on defense are a recipe for disaster and Seattle has a knack for doing both of those things.

Green Bay has the second-fewest turnovers of any offense in the NFL, while ranking seventh in takeaways. Seatle is third in takeaways and the team that wins that battle, likely wins the game and gets a shot at San Fran.

Two great quarterbacks, two very good defenses -- something has to give. 

Hopefully for the Packers, the playoff success at home against Seattle continues and the organization excercises some 2014 demons. 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (65)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
NashvilleCheesehead's picture

January 12, 2020 at 07:26 am

Due to their injuries, this is a favorable home matchup. Packers win 31-13. GO PACK GO!

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Lare's picture

January 12, 2020 at 07:30 am

I usually comment on controlling the line of scrimmage and winning the turnover battle, but yesterday impressed me with the importance of a dominant running attack in this day and age.

The Packers should win this fairly easy as long as they don't beat themselves.

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carlos's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:19 am

A good line can produce a great running game. Key today- control the lines, no turn overs and stay injury free.

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jannes bjornson's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:42 am

That's why the O line is the key to bashing the seachicks front seven relentlessly and protecting Rodgers at all costs with Carroll's head hunter mentality permeating his team. This will not be Muc Carthy running 12 times with his circus.
LaFleur will belt them 10 times /quarter with the run. Hopefully Vitale will be ready and get involved as the point man in two-back sets. Big game for Marcedes Lewis.

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Tundraboy's picture

January 12, 2020 at 04:20 pm

I'm hoping the same thing myself. Go Pack Go. New pack

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Tundraboy's picture

January 12, 2020 at 04:20 pm

I'm hoping the same thing myself. Go Pack Go. New pack

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KevinCheesepoop's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:10 am

Seattle by 4 touchdowns. Easily. If they don't I'll eat my poop stained underwear.

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4thand1's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:19 am

we'll let you use ketchup.

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NickPerry's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:14 am

NO WE WON'T!!

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MeninSeattlewearDresses's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:17 am

Hi Kevin Cheesepoop…

Get those crap filled panties READY because by about 6:00 PM PST you'll be munching those down. Hey look at the bright side...Your obviously so disillusioned and clearly under the influence of some REALLY good shit, you may not even notice the Poop Stains OR that your eating panties.

Then again maybe that's your thing. EITHER way get ready for a late lunch!

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carlos's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:15 am

A Packer hater!

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jannes bjornson's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:45 am

Whatever you say, Dash.

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wildbill's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:16 pm

You will probably eat them either way

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carlos's picture

January 12, 2020 at 01:59 pm

Eat crow for sure.

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4zone's picture

January 12, 2020 at 01:41 pm

Yo, CHTV, think you can erase this disgusting content?

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lilgrasshoppah's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:16 pm

oopsy poopsy...

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4thand1's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:24 am

The Packers pass rush will be key, but Clark has a bad back. Hope he can play through it. AR has to be better , like to see him run more and throw on the run. Heard the flu may affect the game, sounds like several players are sick for the Pack.

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Spock's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:37 am

If the Packers don't beat themselves (turnovers, allowing big plays on defense, etc.) they are the healthier (fingers crossed on how well the players who had the flu have recovered) and this year luckier team. I've always felt the SB team is won by the healthiest and Luckiest team. I also think the Packers are the better team this year over the Seahawks. The LOB defense is now just a good defense. Besides I'd love to see that gum-chewing head coach of theirs try to give an honest after game interview. Should be a good game and I'm betting on our defense to be better and Arod to be in his best form of this year. Go, Pack, Go!

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Leatherhead's picture

January 12, 2020 at 04:33 pm

I think any of the remaining teams could win it all at this point. Good health and good luck are really the difference makers now.

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Lphill's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:38 am

Packers ranked 15 th in pass rush Seattle ranked 18 th , but the Packers have the better O line here so that should be the difference today , if the Packers running game gets going that will be the X factor.

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NickPerry's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:52 am

Seattle is ranked 18th at what? Their O-Line? I ask because the Seattle pass rush is the worst in the playoffs...28 sacks all year.

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stockholder's picture

January 12, 2020 at 08:59 am

Beast mode! The Packers must be in Beast Mode! Nobody screws up. Nobody makes excuses.

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Turophile's picture

January 12, 2020 at 04:44 pm

The Packers don't need to be that good stockholder. Their O and D lines are better than Seattle's. They are at home. They are the healthier team (despite the illness outbreak).

All the Packers need to win, is for Rodgers to play a decent game, not a superstar game, a decent game. If he does that and the rest of the team plays fairly solidly football around him, that's enough for the win. Save the Beast mode for the 49ers, they WILL need that there (assuming they get that far).

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NickPerry's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:04 am

I guess I'm like Lare...I don't see this game being that close. I understand Seattle has played the 49ers close and we didn't and Russell Wilson is a great QB. BUT Russell hasn't been that great the last several weeks for the most part, at least when compared to the start of the season when he was in the MVP race.

I don't think Seattle will be able to keep Aaron Jones from going crazy on their ass. I also think Adams AND Lazard will both have big games. This is the playoffs and I'm hoping MLF STOPS giving Allison some of Lazards snaps and Allen is left alone as the #2 WR because he's EARNED it. Because of that Rodgers is going to LOOK like Rodgers again...At least for this week and hopefully 2 more games after this weekend.

But the biggest reason why this game won't be that close is the Packers defense. The Smiths, Clark, Gary, and Frackrell are going to DOMINATE that Seattle O-Line causing Wilson to look like Kurt Cousins did in week 16 and yesterday...

# YOU LIKE THAT!

And Beast Mode? Forget about it...It's just NOT happening.

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Tundraboy's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:52 am

And Lazard is a smack you in the mouth type WR, Seattle is not accustomed to seeing from us. And the Smiths are a far cry from Clay over running the play.

If there ever was a game for Lafleur to take the wraps off it is this week. We absolutely must avoid turning the ball over and not dropping passes. This is not the week to have momentum lost with Allison,or Graham fumbling. Seattle like Minnesota and Detroit are going to try to strip the ball and hit them whenever they get the ball. Davante too. Must control the game from start to finish. Go Pack Go.

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NickPerry's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:12 am

Deleted..Sorry

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Tundraboy's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:23 am

the only classic I want to see today is Victory. Go Pack Go. Run to daylight!!!

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Tundraboy's picture

January 12, 2020 at 09:29 am

.

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Lphill's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:36 pm

What a dick Bosa is I hope we have a rematch and end his season in front of his fans.

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Houndog's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:24 pm

The Charger's season ended two weeks ago, no way we play against him again this year!

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TommyG's picture

January 13, 2020 at 05:06 am

Nick Bosa plays for San Fran.

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mnbadger's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:04 am

If both teams play their best,with today's available players, packers win going away. Mental mistakes, turnovers, coaching will also tilt the game. Packers 26-16. GPG

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Spanky65's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:18 am

If the Packers use the same strategy on Defense like
they did against the Vikings three weeks ago by moving
Za'Darius Smith around and creating mismatches and gettting
Aaron Jones match up against their LB's on passes the Packers
will be playing next Sunday for the NFC Ttile Game

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Tundraboy's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:23 am

Here's a good bit of inspiration to savor before the game.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28446151/packers-back-aaron-jones-fr...

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ricky's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:24 am

Get a lead, don't let up, and don't let the game get close in the fourth quarter. Foot on throat, press firmly, don't let up until the final whistle blows.

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Qoojo's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:37 am

The only way I see the packers losing this one is if they come out lackadaisical (Drops, defense is slow, Rodgers looks like he is in Detroit,...), or commit too many turnovers and lose the turnover battle by 2 or more. See the Ravens - Titans game for reference.

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Tarynfor12's picture

January 12, 2020 at 10:44 am

What do the Packers do after their scripted plays?

This has been an issue throughout the season and though they've pulled off 13 wins in spite of it, playoff football is different as we witnessed with the Ravens yesterday.

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Bure9620's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:00 am

Just beat the Seahawks on All-Madden mode 37-9 with exact rosters.........clearly this is happening in real life........

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Mojo's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:07 am

A lot has been said about ARods dysfunction this year such as holding the ball too long, running the clock down nearly every play, inaccuracy, footwork, passing up easy throws for the home run ball and audibling out of the scheme.

I agree with much of the characterization, but as of now don't care. ARod's my boy. I'm rooting for him and his teammates to take this game and the next two afterwards. And if you think GB can't win next week against SF, just remember the Titans.

The team that won SB45 was in a more daunting position. It's time to put it all together and roll through Miami.

Go-Pack-Go!!!

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splitpea1's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:20 am

Packers offense: find out what works early and repeat until it doesn't anymore. Don't try to force the ball to one player (like the Vikings did) when the defense is keying on that player and stopping him time and time again.

Defense: D-Line: hold your ground and keep Lynch going sideways without turning the corner.
ZDS: line him up everywhere and see how many sacks and holding calls he gets. Secondary: break up passes the way the Titans did yesterday--they were really impressive.

Special teams: Be conservative and take care of the ball. And watch out for tricks!

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Bure9620's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:21 am

Raven Greene not added to the roster, cannot play

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4zone's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:16 pm

Saw that. Bummer. I think he will be a factor in this D for years to come. Hopefully he has a shot next week.

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flackcatcher's picture

January 12, 2020 at 03:38 pm

When the Packers activate him, they knew he was not ready this week. But they had to see him in practice to know. If the Packers move on, odds (OK, when the Packers move on..) are Greene gets added to the gameday next week.

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Houndog's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:29 pm

Gotta agree with 4Zone, that's a bummer.
Was looking forward to him hitting Wilson a few times.

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PatrickGB's picture

January 12, 2020 at 11:43 am

I don’t see this as an easy win. The Seahawks have the edge in close games. Rodgers timing with his receivers is off. It’s not going to get better in this one. I don’t expect us to win this one. :-( But next year will be better.

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EdsLaces's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:04 pm

Why Green Bay will win ...Showtyme33.

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4zone's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:14 pm

Today will depend on which Packer team shows up. If its the one that got wood sheded by the Niner's, this will be a short playoff run. If they show up with everyone focused and AR is in the zone, this could get ugly for the chicken hawks.

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dobber's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:15 pm

Just a couple years ago, the Packers marched all the way to the NFC Title game, through some wounded and overrated competition (with some luck) to Atlanta where they took a brutal smackdown by the Falcons. They did it with a beat-up roster, a so-so defense that wasn't statistically very good, an iffy run game, and a QB who was making throws and big plays to a wounded WR corps. Sounds a little like the set-up for Seattle today. Let's not get too confident with this matchup. Seattle has their issues and it looks good on paper for the Packers today...it looked good on paper for Baltimore yesterday, too. I think the Packers win, but I think there will be no lack for drama.

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Houndog's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:40 pm

You got it dobber,
The 2014 NFC Championship game looked great on paper and on the field,
until there were only 3 minutes left!
Overconfidence is OK (and expected) on this site, let's hope the players actually know better.

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wildbill's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:22 pm

Catch the damn ball and make tackles!! This will cure a lot of our issues.

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jlc1's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:54 pm

Hope somebody passed this along to the GB coaches :)

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4zone's picture

January 12, 2020 at 01:40 pm

Yup, what he said. . . (you're a he, right?)

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Lphill's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:46 pm

I picked the Titans yesterday , because I felt the defense would not hold up against the run, also as talented as Jackson is I don’t think he reads the defense that well yet , his runs are improvised and eventually unfortunately he will take 1 run too many. Russell Wilson runs when things breakdown but I think the Smiths will be a problem for him and I think we see Z in the middle and Gary holding the edge.

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dobber's picture

January 12, 2020 at 01:07 pm

That whole Baltimore offense is built around Jackson's legs. Last year, the Chargers played a dime defense for virtually an entire game and knocked Baltimore out. Yesterday, Tennessee seemed to control the tempo and Jackson made mistakes...and they're done. Maybe it takes time for teams to figure out what it takes to corral an offense built around one player, but they will.

Maybe it will change with time, but Jackson is still a run-first QB (and an undersized one, at that), and that threat opens up the passing game and the option game for him. But like all run-first QBs, he might burn brightly for a bit, but he's going to have to be better throwing the ball or he's going to have a short career.

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splitpea1's picture

January 12, 2020 at 02:48 pm

Well said, but I would add that the Ravens as a team picked the worst time for a dud with too many dropped passes and failing to convert short fourth downs multiple times. And the Titans played exceptionally well with their running game clicking, the receivers making great catches, and the secondary doing its job....For what it's worth, though, it's still fun to watch Jackson dart forward and backwards in the pocket like that before he decides to take off. I think he'll evolve as time goes on.

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jlc1's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:52 pm

Winning the trenches wins most football games and certainly wins seasons overall. But the exceptions are often when an elite QB makes off the charts plays. Ask Dallas in 2016 or almost anYbody who played AR in the mid 2010's. So Wilson can wreck the Pack but odds are he doesn't. Go Pack Go!

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amf287's picture

January 12, 2020 at 12:53 pm

exorcises. not exercises. We don't want those 2014 demons to get any stronger LOL Go Pack!

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Pierre's picture

January 12, 2020 at 02:01 pm

Green Bay has the team and defense to win the Super Bowl this season. It all depends on Aaron Rodgers and how quick and accurate he throws the ball.

There’s no excuses. If Rodgers plays like an above average QB, and like he’s paid, they should win, especially at Lambeau.

If they lose because he plays poorly and is not able to guide the offense in sustained drives that result in TDs, then it really is time to move on to a new QB in Green Bay sooner rather than later.

Go out there and get it done Aaron Rodgers! Go Pack, Go!!

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dobber's picture

January 12, 2020 at 03:14 pm

The best team between GB and a chance at the Lombardi is SF...but Houston is smacking KC around at the moment and Tennessee is playing well within their system and riding their best players. Bottom line: anyone who can beat up Baltimore or KC the way these two teams did/are doing is no cupcake.

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flackcatcher's picture

January 12, 2020 at 03:44 pm

Man Houston just imploded. Unreal. Anybody's game at the moment....

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dobber's picture

January 12, 2020 at 05:04 pm

That was a helluva quarter by KC...

IN EDIT: picking my jaw off the floor.

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fastmoving's picture

January 12, 2020 at 03:46 pm

this is one of the best NFL postseason ever!!!! Im just 50, but I cant remember a better one…..

So much for the good old day BS, its just never true….

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flackcatcher's picture

January 12, 2020 at 04:48 pm

What! Peterson you hung over.... Well forget the CHTY writer behind the curtain. (on the barstool...grabbing another one at 10am on a Sunday... :-) I think most folks on this thread (expect for that poor fellow who wants to eat his or her self) have a good sense of what the Packers have to do win to today. Two Points: Weather is going to be a factor today, especially in a night game. The field conditions will be a factor as the game rolls on. Longer the game plays, more the field will be an icy dicey mess. Under those conditions both teams may air it out early with traction lost later on. With that on with the SHORT FLACKY... Offense: No secrets for both offensives here. They are what they are. Main factor is the the offensive lines of both teams. The Packers are intact, the Seahawks are not. As the game rolls on pass protection and lack of footing on the field will be factor. Seattle must pass to win, their ability to generate a run game will be difficult. Packers must run to win. Run the ball. Run to daylight. Run to Victory... Rodgers should and must not force the pass game. It will be there for him if he runs the scheme. Defense: Do not underrate this Seattle defense. In these field conditions the Seahawks team speed gives them an advantage at the line of scrimmage. Can be overcome, but the longer the game goes, the bigger the advantage goes for the defensive front. Packers have the same factors going for them against Seattle. If anything, Pettine may unleash the Smiths early over the middle, and Clarke's illness may not be as big a problem with the field as is. Both secondary's will be playing more zone, look for cover 2 going to cover 3. Keeping the WR in front rather then giving up a cheap touchdown is in the minds of both DC. Kickers: This is a Mason Crosby game. The worse the field, the more locked in Crosby is. One of the best bad weather kickers in the NFL history, and still the best in the league today. (Pay the Man GUTE. Pay the Man..) JK Scott has had an excellent second half. His punting has giving the Packers defense good to excellent field position, he has tilted the field in the Packers favor in every sense of the word. Special Teams: I pray for their success... Score: Packers 24 Seahawks 13. This is playoff football, so expect the unexpected. (No way this one was going to short.... :-)

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Leatherhead's picture

January 12, 2020 at 05:40 pm

Listening to the talking heads, and reading the scribbles and bloggers, I'm convinced that a large majority doesn't really believe you can win games by protecting the ball and executing in the red zone.

They see a "down" year for Rodgers; I think he's done a great job this season of adapting , staying in the lineup, and getting wins.

Rodgers is notorious for having a chip on his shoulder, and I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he had a statement game against Seattle.

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dobber's picture

January 12, 2020 at 05:44 pm

With Bulaga ill and not starting, the signing of Veldheer by Gute looks more and more savvy...

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