Why Packers Will Beat Chargers and Why They Might Not

After getting a win on Sunday Night Football last week, the Green Bay Packers will hit the road again this week, as the Packers head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.

Of course, the game might feel like some of those old games against the Arizona Cardinals used to, when the Cardinals were really bad and road teams filled the stands.

Green Bay fans always travel well, but with the ridiculously bad attendance in LA this season, expect a large contingent of Green and Gold Sunday afternoon.

Yet, even with Packer fans filling the stadium, it won't make winning on the road for the second straight week any easier. 

Trips to the west coast and vice versa are particuarly hard but this will be the first visit to the Chargers since 2011, when Rodgers and company won a shootout in San Diego on the way to 15 wins.

This doesn't feel like that kind of game. 

Green Bay is capabe of scoring a lot of points and is currently seventh in the NFL in scoring. The Packers are also expected to get Davante Adams back, which should only add to an offense that has been without the No.1 receiver for weeks.

Thankfully, it hasn't really mattered. The usage of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams in the passing game has been brilliant. 

Last week, Jones and Williams caught three touchdowns from Rodgers, while Williams also scored on the ground, giving them four combined touchdowns in the game.

Simply put, Jones has been one of the best backs in the NFL. He's averaging 4.1 yards per attempt, has 11 total touchdowns and 355 yards receiving, as well as 466 rushing. Williams has 345 total yards and five touchdowns and between the two of them, they have produced 53 receptions. 

Green Bay has to like its chances going in, but this Chargers team did win in Chicago last week, so it will take a solid effort. Here's why the Packers will win along with why they might not. 

Why Green Bay will win

As I pointed out, the home-field advantage shouldn't be that big a deal for the Chargers, except for the fact that Green Bay has to travel to the coast. 

But, the Packers have yet to lose on the road this season, which tells you something about head coach Matt LaFleur. The Packers have already won at Dallas, Chicago and Kansas City and are very capable of winning in LA.

Getting Adams back will help and even if he isn't 100 percent healthy, he will at least be a decoy and if the Chargers don't give him the proper attention, he will make them pay.

Most importantly, his presence should continue to help the Packers isolate their backs, especially Jones, who has turned into an absolute nightmare for defenses.

Whether it's screen passes or throwing the ball deep, Jones has been oustanding as a receiver and I'd expect that to continue against the Chargers, who struggled agianst Tarik Cohen last week.

San Diego is a solid defensive team though and points won't be easy to come by. The Chargers are 10th in points allowed and boast Joey Bosa, one of the top pass rushers in pro football.

Stopping Bosa from wrecking the game will be huge. He can sack Rodgers once or maybe even twice, but the Packers can't allow him to force turnovers and pressure Aaron constantly.

Rodgers has been sacked much less this season and with a running game, as well as a quick passing game, it's made it harder for teams to pin their ears back.

When the Chargers have the ball, the lack of a running game has been an issue. The Chargers have gone six straight games without reaching 100 yards rushing as a team and if that's the case Sunday, the Green Bay pass rush led by Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith can tee off. 

That pressure has also led to a number of big plays in the secondary and coming in, the Packers are fifth in the NFL in interceptions and sixth in takeaways. Green Bay is also ranked fourth when it comes to fewest turnovers, while the Chargers are 21st in giveaways and 20th in takeaways. If those trends hold, Green Bay should be in good shape.

Why Green Bay might lose 

One reason is that it's never easy to win in the NFL. It's hard to win each week, especially on the road and after a 3-0 start away from home, the Packers sort of seem due for a loss.

At the very least, this game feels like it could be a struggle. The Chargers are 3-5 and already fighting for their playoff lives and Philip Rivers knows that. He's also the kind of cagey vet that never lies down.

Rivers will be up for the challenge of playing Rodgers and even if the Packers are able to get an early lead, the Chargers will make a game of this.

The fact that Green Bay has to make a long trip also doesn't hurt LA's chances. 

At the same time though, the Packers know they don't have much margin for error in the NFC North or the hunt for home-field advantage and if Rodgers can out play Rivers and Green Bay wins the turnover batte, a pretty simple formula it will win.

That's much easier said than done, but it's been the path to victory this season and it coud lead to an eighth win Sunday afternoon.

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (29)

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SterlingSharpe's picture

November 03, 2019 at 06:24 am

"The fact that Green Bay has to make a long trip also doesn't hurt."

Doesn't help?

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LambeauPlain's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:09 am

So far ML and his staff seem to have done a good job preparing the team for the road. This will be the longest trip but the facts they left Friday and will face a 65-75% Packer crowd in the stands will diminish the road challenge.

I look for ML to script another fast start and for Pettine to bring the pressure on Rivers early. If he has time in the pocket his accuracy can kill you.

Chargers have some key injuries, especially on D line...but still boast a very talented roster.

Still, I like the “home team” Packers to win by double digits.

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Spock's picture

November 03, 2019 at 06:56 am

I've never understood the supposed QB vs. QB comment, "Rivers will be up for the challenge of playing Rodgers..." The quarterbacks play the other teams defense. Rivers isn't quite as good as he used to be and Rodgers is really starting to get the Packers offense to jell. With Aaron Jones playing lights out and the Packers D much improved (and improving) from last season with Savage now on his 2nd week back I see a lot more chances for GB to win this one. With a "home town" like crowd this should be a fun game to watch!

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PatrickGB's picture

November 03, 2019 at 09:18 am

Spock, I agree about the QB vs QB talk. I think that the only way it makes sense is in a shootout. I also agree that Savage is important because their rookie RB is a fast threat out of the backfield. I don’t put much stock in the advantage of having a lot of GB fans at the game. It’s the players themselves that make the difference.

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Norm's picture

November 03, 2019 at 07:07 am

I believe the only way they lose this game is if they are -2 or worse in turnovers, or something catastrophic happens like Rodgers goes down early. The Chargers aren't terrible like Miami or Cincinnati level terrible and they could give GB a good game but in the end they just aren't as good a team as the Packers. Rivers gives them a chance but unless they turn it around in the running game, where GB has given up some big plays no doubt, I see the Pack pulling away late. 31-17 GB is my guess.

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LambeauPlain's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:12 am

Yep....the second most important stat after the scoreboard is the T O margin. I have read analysis that says it is more important than yards gained, time of possession, penalties, or sacks.

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Lphill's picture

November 03, 2019 at 07:36 am

I don’t think travel is an issue they arrived a day early to get acclimated plus it’s beautiful weather compared to snow in Green Bay. Chargers are desperate and Rivers takes chances. Pack by 7 .

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ALLGASNOBRAKES's picture

November 03, 2019 at 07:37 am

"It's hard to win each week, especially on the road and after a 3-0 start away from home, the Packers sort of seem due for a loss."

Sorry Chris but I can't agree with that one bit. The Packers already had a loss and even though it wasn't on the road I don't think their due for anything of the sort. The thing I really like about MLF is he's always preaching going 1-0. He does an excellent job (so far) of keeping his team focused on the 60 minutes of football his team is playing that week.

IMO this game will be won by the Packers controlling the game running the ball. The Chargers top 3 interior D-linemen are out so I'd expect a LARGE dose of Jones and Williams running right up the gut...

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PeteK's picture

November 03, 2019 at 10:13 am

I would love to finally see that.

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Spock's picture

November 03, 2019 at 07:51 am

I see the Packers have activated Jace Sternberger. Will we see more TE sets this game?

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ALLGASNOBRAKES's picture

November 03, 2019 at 10:34 am

I hope so Spock... And I hope MLF gets him involved at least somewhat. Nice pass down the seam here. Fade pass there. Just get him involved.

The thing about MLF is he'll put a player in a position to succeed if the player is ready. I'd imagine if he's active MLF just might have a few things prepared for the kid.

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Leatherhead's picture

November 03, 2019 at 01:57 pm

I think we'll stick with our more experienced TEs. IMO, Sternberger is part of the solution for next year, along with Tonyan. This year it's Graham and Lewis unless they are injured, because they are the vets.

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jamesbond's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:01 am

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Houndog's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:40 am

Was posting it that many times really necessary, or just ridiculous?
I guess I'll be certain NOT to watch now.

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Matt Gonzales's picture

November 03, 2019 at 02:04 pm

Anyone know a way I can watch this game online?

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Tarynfor12's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:05 am

The run game of the Chargers has been missing in action and as long as GB doesn't go out of their way to help find it for SD this game should be another check in the win column.

Packers 31-20 if the run game for SD remains missing.

Packers 24-23 if SD finds it's run game, Crosby with the game winning FG.

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PackfanNY's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:10 am

I doubt the Packers aren’t worried about the “SD” run game as I don’t think they exist anymore. LOL. Kind of like the Expos just won the World Series!

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Tundraboy's picture

November 03, 2019 at 09:38 am

One of your finest posts. Loved,

"and as long as GB doesn't go out of their way to help find it for SD"

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PeteK's picture

November 03, 2019 at 10:16 am

Also , a concern of mine because we have certainly been suspect in that category.

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Bure9620's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:22 am

SD is not a good team, they should really be a 2 win team. The Packers should be able to move the ball on their banged up defense. Pending turnovers, Chunk plays and an "away" crowd the Packers should win. I see several matchups they can exploit.

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4thand1's picture

November 03, 2019 at 08:32 am

No noise factor, AR can communicate at ease. These teams that move to make more money and totally shit on their fan base suck. Hope the Pack wins by 50.

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PatrickGB's picture

November 03, 2019 at 09:20 am

Unless the speaker in his helmet goes out again.

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Matt Gonzales's picture

November 03, 2019 at 02:05 pm

Did they move the game to Gillette Stadium?

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Tundraboy's picture

November 03, 2019 at 09:36 am

I am very nervous for this game, primarily because I think can we really get to 8 and 1?

Go Pack Go. Please.

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4thand1's picture

November 03, 2019 at 10:08 am

We can, we should, we will. GOPACKGO

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PeteK's picture

November 03, 2019 at 10:26 am

Yes , all games have been close .

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PeteK's picture

November 03, 2019 at 10:39 am

Rivers has 7 ints, time to get the pass rush going again. Also, hope we can run the ball to give the D a much needed easy game. All these games are crucial because I don't see Niners, Saints, or Vikings slowing down.

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Jacqueline's picture

November 03, 2019 at 02:32 pm

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+ REPLY
0 points
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Jacqueline's picture

November 03, 2019 at 02:34 pm

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+ REPLY
0 points
0
0

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