Why Packers will beat Oakland and Why They Might Not

The Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders each head into Sunday's contest at Lambeau Field having won two straight games. The Packers edged out the Lions on Monday night and the Raiders won last week against Chicago.

Surprisingly, the Raiders are sitting at 3-2 right now and a big reason for that has been the production of running back Josh Jacobs, who is averaging more than 80 yards per game on the ground.

The quarterback play has improved for the Raiders, yet, Derek Carr has just six touchdown passes in five games and his best attribute so far has been an ability to take care of the football.

Aaron Rodgers has done an even better job of protecting the ball, throwing just two interceptions. The two-time MVP is also averaging 265 yards per game and is fresh off a stellar fourth-quarter comeback.

Like the Raiders, who don't have a ton of receiving talent, Rodgers will have to make things work again without Davante Adams and maybe even Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Allen Lazard was the hero with four receptions for 65 yards and a touchdown last week against the Lions, but can he do it again?

Head coach Matt LaFleur will need to get creative with his play calls but the backfield tandem of Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should help. The offense has started to click for Rodgers in recent weeks, who has been productive, even without Adams. 

Points could be at a premium in this matchup and here's why Green Bay might win, as well as why it might not.

Why Packers will win

There are a few reasons to feel good about Green Bay's chances of winning this game and one is that, it's at home. 

It might seem simple, but Green Bay, like most teams, plays better at home and the Raiders aren't as good on the road, where they are 1-2 this season.

Oakland did get a solid win over the Bears last week and the Raiders are no joke. They are a sound football team that isn't beating itself. 

The Packers could say the same thing in recent weeks. A more positive start will be needed after falling behind to Detroit and it will be crucial to get the running game going to prevent everything being put on the shoulders of Rodgers.

While it would be great if the Packers had Adams or even MVS, we see great quarterbacks carry teams to victory all the time in the NFL and even with his rag-tag group of receivers, Rodgers can do the same this week, as long as the defense keeps rolling.

Why Oakland might win

One thing that should worry the Packers is that Carr has only been sacked eight times this season. That's important because if Green Bay is going to win this game, it has to get pressure on the quarterback. The defense will need to force a turnover or two, which it has done this season. It just needs to rise to the occasion again.

Jacobs ability to run the football has changed the offense for the Raiders and has given them an indentity. Slowing down the running game and forcing Carr to win it with his arm will be key.

If Green Bay can get a lead and play defense from ahead, it should make a big difference. But if the Raiders can hang around, run the football and keep the game close, anything can happen at the end.

Of course, going up against Aaron Rodgers, in a close game, at Lambeau Field, isn't exactly what you want, however, it's the best shot the Raiders have to escape with a win.

If the Packers were healthy, this would feel like more of a mismatch. However, with Green Bay as banged up as they are, the defense and Rodgers will need to be at their best to get to 6-1.

 

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Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (37)

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4thand1's picture

October 20, 2019 at 07:26 am

Control the line of scrimmage and win 200 yards rushing. Or AR puts on a show today.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

October 20, 2019 at 03:14 pm

You called it. AR put on a show today! Max passer rating. Five TD passes and one he ran in. A true show.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

October 20, 2019 at 07:29 am

Not wearing those all white uniforms has to help, right?

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Cubbygold's picture

October 20, 2019 at 07:36 am

Not only was the bears loss to oakland valuable in the division standings, but it gave everyone in GB an eye opener on how to get beat by Oakland. This team will have a great opportunity to shut down a run first team and prove they can do it.

Lions beat up on the vikings today and GB wins easily, divisions going to be setting up real nice

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ALLGASNOBRAKES's picture

October 20, 2019 at 07:54 am

"Lions beat up on the vikings today and GB wins easily, divisions going to be setting up real nice"

Don't forget the Saints beating the Bears. As much as I'd like to see the Saints lose, it's impossible to WANT the Bears to win. At least in week 7. Hey maybe a tie?

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Cubbygold's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:52 am

Yeah, its too early to count the bears out, so ill be rooting for the saints.

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dobber's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:15 am

Not going to worry about conference playoff positioning yet. Win the division and everything else takes care of itself. Bears must lose.

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4zone's picture

October 20, 2019 at 07:52 am

Another good test for the Pack today. I'd love to see Shepherd shake off last week and make some plays today. Lazard is goin to get some targets today and he needs to make them count. The run D will get a real test today and our own running game will need to be effective as well. Hopefully we don't pull a Badger today, we need as many wins as possible before we hit the long road stretch ahead.

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ALLGASNOBRAKES's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:12 am

I'd love to see Allan Lazard have another big game. Rodgers gains more confidence in Lazard, Lazard more in himself, and the Packers just may have someone to pair with Adams when he returns. I'm still pulling for a trade of some sort, BUT even more, I'm looking for more weapons to emerge from players already on the roster. It would also be pretty cool to have Ryan Grant come in and bite his old team in the ass too.

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Lphill's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:16 am

Packers win because they have Aaron Rodgers and the Raiders don’t.

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Bure9620's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:35 am

Nice analysis

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Jonathan Spader's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:36 am

It seems like Rodgers already has a lot of trust in Lazard. He lobbied for him to see the field, sits next to him at meetings, and targeted him often when he finally got his opportunity. Now that he's a inown commodity this will be a bigger test, can't wait to see how he responds.

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Bure9620's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:40 am

This game is a tricky one. We have been suspect against the run and the Raiders have a pretty decent run blocking o-line and and big back in Jacobs. If we go 3 and out and the Raiders play ball control with the run and hit big plays off the action, this could be interesting. The X-factors are Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams both running and receiving. I expect several 2 back sets today and also more Vitale.

Knowing their WRs are banged up also, I dont think Gruden wants to air out all day against our corners. He will play smash mouth running it right at us with Jacobs and Alec Ingold blocking. He will test this front 7

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4thand1's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:35 am

This could be a knock down drag em out ,ball control run 1st, low scoring game. Pack 17-10?

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Bure9620's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:49 am

This game screams take the under...

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Spock's picture

October 20, 2019 at 08:40 am

The most impressive thing about this team has been that MLF has the team READY to play every week. I doubt very much this team will come out flat. I expect that Pettine has been showing his defense those "flash" plays from the Lions' game and firing up his defense. MLF and Hackett have been doing an exceptional job of preparing a game plan specifically for each upcoming opponent and IMO will have this team prepared. I'm kind of hoping we see BOTH Jamaal and Jones in the backfield at the same time for some plays. -Or- this could be the game where Vitale becomes the guy who steps up out of nowhere. I have to say I love the unpredictability of MLF's offense; these games have been so much more fun to watch this season. Go Pack Go!

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Tundraboy's picture

October 20, 2019 at 09:39 am

I agree. Each week has become more about what new looks or plays they might use versus the stifling predictability of the last few years. Can't wait.

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PeteK's picture

October 20, 2019 at 09:58 am

So far offense is still sputtering along. I'm holding out hope that one of the young receivers breaks out, it took Nelson almost two seasons.

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dobber's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:19 am

491 yards against the Eagles
335 yards at Dallas
447 yards against Detroit

Sputtering? OK.

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PeteK's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:40 am

2019 -17th in yds, 14th in pts 2018-12th in yds, 14th in pts. It's all about the defense so far this year, but it's early and should improve with time.

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dobber's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:59 am

Pull out the first couple games and how do the numbers look?

Aggregate stats can be misleading.

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PatrickGB's picture

October 20, 2019 at 09:36 am

“Why we might win” -Aaron freakin Rodgers and our running backs!
“Why we might not. - No decent WRs and their running back.

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Tundraboy's picture

October 20, 2019 at 09:39 am

short and to-the-point

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

October 20, 2019 at 03:29 pm

Short and to the point comments are allowed?

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Spock's picture

October 20, 2019 at 09:43 am

The other thing that is critical to this game is the special teams play by the Packers. I'm confident that Great Scott will continue to boom those high, long hang time punts, but less confident on our coverage guys maintaining their gaps. if our guys cover Scott's punts well, our ST guys protect him and Sheppard does HIS job I like the Packers at home. I'm seeing the Packers winning the TO battle this week and making this a lot more one sided (Packers) then last weeks TO problem.

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PeteK's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:01 am

Savage out and especially Clark hobbling worries me. Home field advantage will carry us today.

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Favreisgod's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:12 am

This is a trap game - the D has to carry us. They must turn Carr into a Yugo

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4thand1's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:14 am

Scrap metal

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dobber's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:20 am

Only a trap game if they're looking past it to KC. With all the wrangling and adjustments they need to make in their game planning, I don't expect they'll be looking past Oakland.

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ThxJackVainisi's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:33 am

GMo & MVS active & Grant isnt.

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wildbill's picture

October 20, 2019 at 10:55 am

Doubt Carr has seen the pressure we are capable of bringing. This is a game our defense will win for us as even with MVS and Allison playing I doubt they are close to 100%.

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dobber's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:25 am

MVS finished last week's game. It could be his leg swelled up and wouldn't warm up this week. It could be they just decided to give him a chance to heal. Whatever the case, speed is his game and if he can't run downfield, he doesn't help. Surprised that Allison is active.

Trent Brown inactive for the Raiders is a big plus for the Packers.

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Tarynfor12's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:14 am

GB needs to take away the Raiders run game. Playing with the lead of 10 pts or more will force the Raiders to play to our pass rush and secondary assets,especially come mid 3rd quarter and hopefully our run game works.
Jump to a lead and hope our SPT play doesn't give them the lead or erase ours quick and easy.

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dobber's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:21 am

Spot on.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

October 20, 2019 at 11:44 am

Packers WHITE uniforms look horrible!!

But , I do like the white Dunkin Vanilla Creme Donuts !!!

I like the GREEN Jerseys!!!

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Leatherhead's picture

October 20, 2019 at 01:47 pm

At the half, we are up by 11. We have 0 turnovers and the Raiders have one big one. Jones made a fantastic adjustment on the first TD , and Kumerow had an excellent run after the catch.

We're on pace to win 42-20. I think it'll be closer than that. Kudos to the coach for using his backs in the passing game.

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Doug Niemczynski's picture

October 21, 2019 at 12:50 pm

Great Analysis!!! That is what happened today!!!

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