Why Packers will beat Broncos and Why They Might Not

After two weeks of the regular season, the Green Bay Packers are in a perfect spot. 2-0 with wins over the Vikings and Bears is the best possible place for the Packers to be.

Now, with another very winnable game at home, Green Bay needs to keep the momentum going and it will have to do it against a hungry Broncos team that's 0-2.

Denver has struggled to score with Joe Flacco as its starting quarterback and the defense led by formers Bears defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, hasn't been good enough to make up for that.

As strange as it might seem, the Packers come in being known more for their defense this season than the offense led by two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers.

Through two games, the Packers are second in points allowed and 11th in yards. Most importantly, they lead the NFL in takeaways with five.

The fact that quarterbacks are barely over 50 percent on completions, with just one touchdown and three picks against Green Bay is also a promising sign.

Green Bay is also entering a string of home games that could help the Packers put themselves in a strong playoff position early.

Yet, in the NFL, each week is a new challenge and as far as the Broncos are concerned, here's a look at why Green Bay might win and why it might lose.

Why Green Bay will win

At the risk of simplifying things, the Packers will win this game because they have the better quarterback. The defenses are both good and Fangio has tormented Rodgers over the years.

On top of that, there are still some kinks to work out. Rodgers is still developing a rapport with his wideouts and the offense as a whole is still learning and growing.

Yet, the first half against Minnesota last week looked like vintage Packers and even though the rest of the game was a dud, it gave reason for hope. It also showed things are starting to click. 

But unlike in previous seasons, the defense was able to close out a win and that's two weeks in a row now. 

With a secondary that is starting to look elite and a pass rush that is damn good too, Green Bay is for real on defense. Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez also aid playmakers at every level.

Denver has a pair of solid receivers in Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton, however, with Flacco in the pocket like a sitting duck, they shouldn't have much time to get open.

I expect a ton of pressure on Flacco throughout the game and if the Packers can keep the running game in check, especially Royce Freeman, the defense should have a field day. 

The bottom line is that if the Broncos don't rush for 100 yards or more, it's tough to see them scoring more than 14-17 points.

And while the offense hasn't been spectacular, the offensive line might be even better this week with Elgton Jenkins starting at guard for Lane Taylor. David Bakhtiari is healthy and the running game has been working with Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams.

The offense won't dominate, but it can score enough to win and at home, 20-24 points should be more than doable.

Why Green Bay might lose 

The Packers could lose this game if they don't care of the ball and the Broncos find a way to win the turnover battle.

The formula for Denver is to make this a low-scoring, ball control affair. The Broncos running game hasn't been great, but if Philip Lindsay and Freeman can get going, it can open the play-action passing game for Flacco.

Miller is still one of the best defenders in the NFL and he's capable of making a big play or two. If the Broncos can hang around, a strip sack or something could be the difference. 

Flacco isn't the same guy he used to be, however, he still knows how to manage a game. He knows how not to lose early, even if he sometimes forgets.

As long as the bad Joe doesn't show up, Denver can hang for four quarters. But if Flacco gets pressured and turns it over more than once, then the Packers should win.

Rodgers doesn't even have to be great. He just has to play a clean game and create an explosive play or two.

As crazy as it might seem, if Rodgers and the Packers get to 20 points, they should find themselves sitting at 3-0. 

 

 

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Comments (35)

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BoCallahan's picture

September 22, 2019 at 06:04 am

The Packers will win because the D will overwhelm the Broncos! The Smith brothers can’t be contained. I’m also looking for 52 to make a statement.

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4thand1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 07:35 am

QB is still the king, just ask Elway. The Broncos won a SB with defense not P Manning. How many QB's has Denver gone through in the Elway era? The Packers have one with AR, the reason McCarthy is gone. AR and the offense improves today, Packers 28-17.

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sam1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 07:37 am

Is it me or do these writers have come to believe in the way they talk of Rodgers that he has become more of a game manager and mediocre quarterback now in this league? When I read what many writers of these articles this is how it seems to come across! I am personally not saying he has, but again it appears the writers do.

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Tarynfor12's picture

September 22, 2019 at 10:10 am

There's two ways to write about Rodgers at this point...What you perceive/fantasize him to be playing or how he actually is playing. Based on what we have seen from Rodgers at this point without bringing in assumed failings of others, the latter is what the writer is writing and correctly.

What some need to accept is Rodgers is no longer the QB he was but is now more human than previous and many need to accept his weekly performance chart will appear more a roller coaster than the steady #1 top of the hit parade.

Teams will no longer fear the mention of his name as he walks on the field and assume a loss is at hand but now have more confidence in getting a win. Perhaps his previous status can be again and his hype will be enough at times but I wouldn't bet on it. Rodgers is at this point an enigma...will he ultimately adapt to the new or continue allowing habit to undue all.

Rodgers is a week to week guess as to his play at least until either he or the offense as a whole stop being 'offensive'.

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Daren726's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:03 am

Rodgers is getting the offense down. We all knew it would take time. Now we’re seeing it. I also expect a bigger showing by the offense this week as it grows in experience. Some new unscouted wrinkles. Biggest test will be how Lafleur adjusts after the script of plays runs out. Also, Will Denver’s edge rush show up? Can Bulaga and 69 stop them? I think so.

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Gman1976's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:35 am

I suspect that a good barometer of how the offense will improve is how much our quarterback will have to use his new armband. I was kind of shocked that Aaron had to use it, but now I understand that the offense is going to take more time to get the kinks out. This offense isn’t second nature yet to Aaron and the receivers. I can’t wait until it sinks in. Then it it will be important for our new coach to learn to make the adjustments as the game goes on. I’ve read it takes a couple of years to really use a new offensive well,. Hopefully, our learning curve will be much shorter, because our expectations are so high and because we have such good talent on the team.

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4thand1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:21 am

Sam1 , I'd like to see AR's response to a question of , are you a game manager in this new system?

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sam1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:25 am

So would i! I can only imagine his answer, but do you agree it sounds like many writers are saying that?

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4thand1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:36 am

sounds like it so far

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PatrickGB's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:25 am

Historically the Packers have struggled when the other teams QB is effective and their run game goes well. We have also struggled when our receivers can’t get open and Rodgers refuses to take the check down and the run game is ineffective. Of course it’s early with a new coach, but I don’t see it happening today.

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4thand1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:38 am

Every team would struggle under that scenario Patrick

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Renllaw's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:40 am

-Historically ALL TEAMS have struggled when the other teams QB is effective and their run game goes well.-

-Fixed

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Renllaw's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:40 am

-Historically ALL TEAMS have struggled when the other teams QB is effective and their run game goes well.-

-Fixed

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Renllaw's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:40 am

-Historically ALL TEAMS have struggled when the other teams QB is effective and their run game goes well.-

-Fixed

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Renllaw's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:42 am

sorry, comment locked up on me and I got click happy : )

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Doug_In_Sandpoint's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:31 am

The Pack will win because we will be better than the Broncos on offense, defense, special teams, coaching, turnover margin, and home field. However, I have stopped drinking the green and gold Kool Aid and I will no longer predict the 60-0 and 45-0 thrashings I have the past two weeks. Until QB1 gets the entire playbook down and the receivers consistently get on the same page, I will be more conservative with my predictions. Pack wins 30-0. For you statistic freaks that’s 15.8% of the way to 19-0.

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Cubbygold's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:37 am

Funny how expectations change. I was worried GB was going to be a good team that was at risk of a slow start, with 0-2 a real possibility.

Now... I can't see them losing this game unless the injury bug hits hard

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ReaganRulz's picture

September 22, 2019 at 08:39 am

I love these weekly articles....reminds me the weatherman.....Why it’s going to rain or why it’s not going to rain. Covering all of the bases.

This one should be interesting. Not as much hype against a team that is not a division rival. We all are feeling confident and the players should be as well. But being the favorite for the 1st time this year......lets see how they handle it.

I’m sure hoping the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th receiver can step up this week. We’re blessed to have Adams, but the offense needs to get at least 1 other receiver to be consistent. Otherwise, I worry about the health of our QB.

This is all pretty much Captain Obvious stuff, but I’m feeling good about a win for the Packers including at least 2 tds from ARodgers and a td from the defense....would love to see Savage or Alexander sprinting at Mach 3 speed down the sideline!!

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:13 am

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September 22, 2019 at 09:16 am

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September 22, 2019 at 09:17 am

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:18 am

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:08 am

Sitting here looking at the weather radar, today's game looks to be a somewhat of a soggy affair. Which should play right into GB's favor. With all the new speed on defense and the offense's ability to take care of the ball. it leaves me very optimistic about a favorable outcome of today's event.

I know last weeks game wasn't perfect but the two touchdown throw's from AR were things of beauty. The one where he through side arm through the line to Jones and he turned and ran it in, was a throw through some mighty tall timber. The other one off his back foot for thirty plus yards to the back of the end zone where only his guy could get it were amazing and very few mortals can do. I just don't see any quarterbacks in our NFC North with the talent to do that. Win the North, stay healthy and the rest will take care of itself.

I am so happy that this season we don't have to score thirty plus point just to have a chance of winning and we now have a much better chance of controlling the ebb's and flow of games.

Go Pack Go

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:17 am

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September 22, 2019 at 09:18 am

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September 22, 2019 at 09:14 am

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September 22, 2019 at 09:15 am

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:15 am

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September 22, 2019 at 09:16 am

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:14 am

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Sol's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:10 am

Sitting here looking at the weather radar, today's game looks to be a somewhat of a soggy affair. Which should play right into GB's favor. With all the new speed on defense and the offense's ability to take care of the ball. it leaves me very optimistic about a favorable outcome of today's event.

I know last weeks game wasn't perfect but the two touchdown throw's from AR were things of beauty. The one where he through side arm through the line to Jones and he turned and ran it in, was a throw through some mighty tall timber. The other one off his back foot for thirty plus yards to the back of the end zone where only his guy could get it were amazing and very few mortals can do. I just don't see any quarterbacks in our NFC North with the talent to do that. Win the North, stay healthy and the rest will take care of itself.

I am so happy that this season we don't have to score thirty plus point just to have a chance of winning and we now have a much better chance of controlling the ebb's and flow of games.

Go Pack Go

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4thand1's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:18 am

Sol way to hog the board,lol

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Renllaw's picture

September 22, 2019 at 09:56 am

To Sol's defense, the comment section has been locking up on me too lately. click and nothing happens.... so click again right? LOL.

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hobowilly's picture

September 22, 2019 at 10:55 am

nice overview Chris, thanks! I happen to agree with you, if the Packers can get to 20 they should prevail. This is one of those games wherein the only things that gives me concern is potential injuries, bad breaks or funky calls. I really don't see the ponies coming into Lambeau with a lot of fire power offensively; their strength may be the experience of their QB, who isn't all that mobile. Perhaps it's a game where Pettine unleaches Gary. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick 6 either. Let me share this vision, if GB (somehow is down @ the 1/2) it'll be the first time MLF needs to bring out the wood..but i think this happens later in this early season. Packers 28-14, or lower score. So glad GB is @ home today and Thursday

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hobowilly's picture

September 22, 2019 at 10:58 am

deleted. Seems like the submit button doesn't indicate your comment has been posted. "what about Sol" LOL

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