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Why the Packers Will Beat Baltimore and Why They Might Not

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Why the Packers Will Beat Baltimore and Why They Might Not

In the National Football League, sometimes all it takes is one win to turn around a season and for the Green Bay Packers, hopefully that win came last week.

On the road, against its oldest rival, Green Bay pulled out a hard-fought 23-16 win and improved its record to 5-4. But, as the old saying goes, the more you win the more the games matter, which means Sunday’s game with Baltimore means even more.

The Ravens, who are 4-5, won’t be an easy team to beat. They are well coached, have a solid veteran quarterback and a stout defense. The Ravens also represent a very winnable game for the Packers, who also have matchups with the Browns and Bucs looming.

While two-time MVP Aaron Rodgers is still a ways away from playing, he did start doing some things at practice this week, which was a positive sign. Rogers is a quick healer and if Green Bay is still in the hunt late in the season, he probably will make it back at some point.

Yet, in order to make that happen, the Packers need to a few more wins, starting with the Ravens.

So, here is why the Packers will beat Baltimore today at Lambeau Field:

After starting out 2-0, the Ravens are just 2-5 and one reason is their run defense, which ranks 28th in yards allowed and 21st in yards allowed per attempt. Now, Green Bay doesn’t have a great ground game, but it does have more than 160 yards or more in three of its last five games.

The Packers, who were down to their third-string running back last week, Jamaal Williams, still ran for 160 yards against the Bears, who have a top-10 run defense. So that’s an area Green Bay should be able to exploit against the Ravens.

Another reason why the Packers will win, is that while Flacco is a solid quarterback, he’s not really elite. Drew Brees and Matt Stafford both dominated the Packers defense, but the Ravens offense is far from explosive.

Baltimore ranks 30th in terms of yards per game and has the worst pass offense in the NFL. For a Green Bay defense that is 17th against the run and 20th against the pass, that seems like a pretty good matchup.

However, the last reason Green Bay wins, is that the Packers are at home.

The two teams are evenly matched with Brett Hundley at quarterback, but the edge goes to the home team. Hundley played well on the road against the Bears and back at Lambeau, he should have renewed confidence.

If Hundley can duplicate his performance against the Bears or play close to that level, Green Bay should win and at home, that shouldn’t be too much to ask.

Why the Ravens might win:

There are two things the Ravens do really well. One is run the football, as they have a top-10 rushing attack led by Alex Collins, who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season on 93 attempts.

Collins and the Ravens dominating on the ground is one way they can win, another is by winning the turnover battle. Baltimore ranks in the top 10 in both giveaways and takeaways and ranks third in the percentage of drives by opponents that end in turnovers. They also lead the league in interceptions with 13, which could spell trouble for a young quarterback.

However, as long as the Packers can pull even in the turnover battle and do about the same on the ground, Green Bay should come out on top.

__________________________

Chris is a sports journalist from Montana and has been blogging about the Packers since 2011. Chris has been a staff writer for CheeseheadTV since 2017 and looks forward to the day when Aaron Rodgers wins his second Super Bowl. Follow him @thepackersguru

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Fan friendly comments only: off Comments (23) This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.

TommyG's picture

"Another reason why the Packers will win, is that while Flacco is a solid quarterback, he’s not really elite"

This is a true statement, and a fair assessment of Flacco.

"The two teams are evenly matched with Brett Hundley at quarterback"

One okay game against the Bears has suddenly put Hundley on even ground with a Super Bowl MVP? No, this is not accurate. Yes, Flacco is having a down season (last couple actually), but we cannot compare the experience of the two QB's Every scale in this game is tipped towards the Ravens. Does this mean they will win without question? No! However, to think that this is anything but an upset should the Packers win would be foolhardy.

This game will end with a double digit score difference. This could be in our Packers favor, but they must play a nearly mistake free game to make that happen. If our offense needs to start chasing points because the defense chokes then we are doomed. Make Flacco et al chase the score board and we will win.

Savage57's picture

I laughed when I saw the line about the Packers being evenly matched at QB. Typical Packers fanboy deal; a player has a good game and they're on par with a Super Bowl MVP.

Tarynfor12's picture

Not to say these writers are bad but do they all get together for daily conference calls and agree on stupid things to say like our media does.....Hundley and Flacco are evenly matched or do you guys just drink from the same cup of kool-aid a bit to often.

Chris Peterson's picture

Flacco won that Super Bowl five years ago. The Ravens have been to the playoffs once since then. In the last 3 seasons, Flacco has 42 TDs and 37 INTs. This year he has 8 TDs and 10 picks. So yeah I don't think the Ravens have a huge advantage at QB like the Lions and Saints did. Flacco is a good QB. But he has few weapons and turns the ball over a lot. Think whatever you want, but he's not an elite quarterback, neither is Hundley. That's why I think it's about a push.

Tarynfor12's picture

I have stated many times that elite or great is an overly used label and that there are only 5 QB's in any given ten year span starting and ending whenever one chooses and the rest are a barrel of pickles with slight differences in selected qualities.
Flacco has never been elite or great because that means consistent to certain levels. He is however far more experienced than Hundley and that alone makes the evenly matched absurd alone.
Comparing aspects of teams is one thing and to appoint an edge ,run game, OL, LB's, WR's fine but saying the QB's are even is ridiculous based on the other. Not one team in the league if given the choice would start Hundley over Flacco if the only options. Can that change,maybe, but as of now...not a chance therefore not equal regardless of path taken to say so.

Chris Peterson's picture

You are right, teams probably wouldn't choose Hundley over Flacco. But I think right now, Flacco isn't the guy that took this team to the Super Bowl. The old Joe is certainly capable of showing up and if he does, the Ravens will have the edge. But he has been as poor as just about any starter in the league. Baltimore has the worst pass offense in football. So outside of some experience, I don't think it's much of an edge for the Ravens.

4zone's picture

Said TEAMS were evenly matched, not QBs.

Chris Peterson's picture

Basically, if Rodgers was playing I'd expect Green Bay to win by double digits. With Hundley I think it's an even match up. I didn't necessarily mean it as Hundley is equal to Flacco. But with the way Flacco has been playing, I don't Baltimore has an edge. But, it only takes one game ton change things.

billybobton's picture

that is NOT what he wrote "The two teams are evenly matched with Brett Hundley at quarterback"

I called the packers to find out why bob mcginn was not accredited, they told me this site was not accredited.......seriously? half the articles on here are entertaining but written by people who don't watch the game and don't read what they write

not to grab at hind sight but how does that 'insightful' comment about QB play look after your teddie aid has worn off?

Chris Peterson's picture

I was right about Flacco, who didn't play well in my eyes. Hundley was awful. I was wrong about that. That first interception shook him. He was terrible after that. But I can assure you, I watch every game. I thought Hundley would play better. I thought he would this entire stretch. I was wrong about that. The Packers were too.

dobber's picture

Packers IR Bulaga on Saturday and activate Spriggs (who has been practicing recently).

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2017/11/packers-place-bryan-bulaga-on-...

I'll be curious to see if he's a healthy scratch today, and if not, if they try to sneak him in for some time. I think it would be a mistake to put McCray on the bench in favor of Spriggs right now.

Savage57's picture

The only reason the Packers might bench McCray and go with Spriggs is if they're really interested in getting some looks at Callahan.

Chris Peterson's picture

I agree. Stick with McCray. He has played well and is pretty good run blocker. Spriggs is supposed to be better at pass pro. But I'll believe it when I see it. Hopefully, he is just depth for now. I don't trust him at all.

Nick Perry's picture

Spriggs is supposed to be better at pass pro."

I think I just threw up in my mouth when I read that. Maybe I can't see past what he's looked like every time he's played in a game, but at this time I think the ONLY thing Spriggs was good at was drills in spandex at the combine!

dobber's picture

I think we all know that at some point, if the season goes any further south, they're going to want to see what they've got in Spriggs. He might not be your prototypical RT, but that's the spot he'd slide into.

dobber's picture

In their wins, Baltimore has surrendered a total of only 3 sacks. In their losses? 16. Must get pressure today...

Savage57's picture

Not counting on it. Dom's "Everyone hit their gaps at the same time" blitzes seldom get home. The Packers do a really good job of clogging the rush lanes and getting in their own way.

4zone's picture

Load the box and let it go

Handsback's picture

If the Ravens get home w/ sacks and pressures this will game could get out of hand.

If the Pack could get pressure and a few sacks on Flacco...it could go Green Bay's way. I see where the team that gets the most pressure wins. Saying that the game will be won by the team who's oline performs the best is key. A consideration for a mobile QB like Hundley is also important to the games outcome.

Don't laugh, but I think MM wins this game by out-coaching Hardcase with rollouts, strong running game, and quick strikes. He uses Hundley' s mobility to keep the Ravens off-balance.

Tundraboy's picture

Like last week, have absolutely no sense or clue how this game will play out. It seems to me, that even though we are at home it's either we're going to win big or lose big. Please MM just keep playing younger players, see what we have in Adams, Mays,list goes on. Let it fly MM.

Qoojo's picture

It's as simple as I don't see the packers scoring over 20, and I see the packers D giving up at least mid 20s. Packers faced one of the worst offenses last week against the bears, and shut the bears down in the second half. That's not going to happen this week.

Doug Niemczynski's picture

Packers lost 23_0 !!!!!!

Why the packers will win. What a joke

Chris Peterson's picture

It's why they will win or might lose. The Ravens def played great and Hundley was the worst QB in the NFL outside of Nathan Peterman.

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