The Sunday Morning Packers Gameday Preview

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Good Morning Packer Nation!!! Welcome to The Sunday Morning Packers Gameday Preview!  This week, the Green Bay Packers will be hitting the road to take on the AFC South division leading Indianapolis Colts.  Last week, the Packers had another lackluster performance at Lambeau, leaving Matt LaFleur and the coaching staff searching for answers.  This abhorrent performance on their home turf highlighted all of the deficiencies on the Packers roster and has given many, including myself, a pessimistic outlook at this week’s contest.  

Will the Packers find a way to bounce back and play inspired football? Or will they get dominated in all three phases of the game by a very solid Colts team?  I will have the answers to those questions and more in this week’s Sunday Morning Packers Gameday Preview.  I am happy to have you with me here today for this matchup of playoff contenders; so just sit back, relax, and enjoy this morning’s Packers Gameday preview with your morning cup of Joe or drink of choice.

What to Expect Against the Colts in Week 11?

Last week’s debacle showed us that the Packers may have one of the most overrated defenses in recent memory (They are currently ranked 9th, ESPN.com).  If you think that I am out of my mind with this statement ask yourself the following question: Who besides Za’Darius Smith, Kenny Clark, and Jaire Alexander are you trying to avoid matching up with? (I even think Z’s stats are a touch inflated against bad teams)  I think Savage has had a solid season, I like what Chandon Sullivan brings to the table, I see potential with the tandem of Krys Barnes and Kamal Martin, but I think this defense lacks those 3-4 consistent, unit changing players that can shoulder most of the load when everyone else is struggling. (Z's sack numbers are great but he needs help).

At this point, every opposing offensive coordinator knows the simple plan for gashing this defense: Run the ball, run the ball, and then run the ball again.  Let’s face it, Frank Reich is going to roll out this same blue print that everyone else has been using against Mike Pettine.  Look for Philip Rivers to throw the ball 15-20 times max and have Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins take care of the rest.  This is the best and obvious game plan for the Colts.  Why take chances on risky throws when you can run behind one of the leagues best offensive lines who will create plenty of holes for their talented backs.  This will ensure that the Colts will control the time of possession and create safe throwing lanes for Philip Rivers.

On offense, I see the Packers becoming very one dimensional against the Colts top ranked defense which is led by their strong front.  I see DeForest Buckner anchoring Indy’s front and Darrius Leonard plunging the A gap and closing up any running lanes for Aaron Jones.  

Aaron Jones has been very ordinary, in fact over his last four starts, he has just 190 total rushing yards. I think you can always count on a couple of good drives and explosive plays from the Packers offense, but this week, I think that may not be enough to outlast the Colts. 

Three Burning Questions That Will Determine the Outcome of This Afternoon’s Game:

  1. Will Aaron Jones be shut down again?
  2. Will Mike Pettine find a way to at least contain the Colts rushing attack? 
  3. Will the Packers line hold up and can Aaron Rodgers put up points if Aaron Jones is shut down?

Sunday Afternoon Fantasy Football Picks (Always Start the Plug and Play Guys)

  • Allen Lazard- I think Aaron Rodgers is going to want to get Allen Lazard back up to speed right away.  I expect a 5-7 target day and a couple of big plays from “the lizard”. 
  • Nyheim Hines- With Jonathan Taylor starting to lose touches, Hines could be set to take on a much bigger role this Sunday.  Hines had a standout effort against a stout Titans defense which should translate into another strong performance against a less than stellar rush defense. 
  • MVS- I think Aaron Rodgers continues to roll with MVS on big chunk plays, especially with Davante Adams and Xavier Rhodes matched up in a prize fight all afternoon. I think Rodgers will look for and connect with MVS on multiple shot plays. I think we could see another 4-5 catch day with 100+ yards and a touchdown.   

Picks, Parlays, and Game Props

  • Viable Anytime TD Scorer Options: Davante Adams, MVS, Allen Lazard, Nyheim Hines, and Zach Pascal. 
  • Anytime TD Scorer Parlay: Davante Adams and Nyheim Hines. (+285)
  • Viable Game Parlay(s): Colts -2.5 and under 51.5 (+260), Colts -9.5 and over 43.5 (+362), Colts -4.5 and under 59.5 points (+210)*best value, and (touchdown match winner parlay) Indianapolis D/ST/ Colts (+800)
  • $5 five team parlay: Browns, Steelers, Chargers, Vikings, and Chiefs.
  • Two Touchdown Scorer: Nyheim Hines (+950) 
  • Game Pick: I think the Colts are the better team in two of the most important phases in this matchup (defense and special teams) and their offensive line will make their offensive unit equal to the capability of the Packers high powered offense.  I always thought this would be a tough game, but after their performance last week, I see the Colts further magnifying and exposing all of the Packers deficiencies.  Give me the Colts by a score of 31-20.   

Packer fans, I want to hear from you!  Let me know your thoughts on this game against the Colts.  How do you see it playing out? Did you hit on any fantasy or game/parlay picks from the last few weeks?  What are your picks for this week? 

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David Michalski is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @kilbas27dave 

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Comments (37)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Spock's picture

November 22, 2020 at 06:25 am

I always "expect" the Packers to win, but their play lately doesn't exactly fill me with a lot of confidence today. We'll see what happens (at least this week I can Watch the game here in Tucson). Your comments are hard to disagree with, especially that Aaron Jones has just been "ordinary" lately. Hopefully the OL can have a great game and open some holes or Jones can get some "in space" catches for him to do his thing! As always, Go Pack Go!

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blacke00's picture

November 22, 2020 at 06:55 am

It really comes down to the OL. If they can control one aspect of the game (pass blocking vs rush blocking or both?) the Packers should do well. But that's the big question.
Forget the defense. They just can stop the run.

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stockholder's picture

November 22, 2020 at 07:16 am

We have the best of everything. No improvement is needed. Everyone wants a Rodgers. BGs right. We don't need to do a thing. The future is looking fantastic. The paper says so. You must believe. BG is Santa Clause. He's given Bahk and Clark a windfall. And with a twinkle of his nose. He'll make room for his Love. We clearly have to buy into what he's doing. Candy land is Lambeau field. Its full of everything a person could dream of. So lets dream. Don't EXPECT and you won't be disappointed. No matter what the outcome of this game is. Were in first place and will make the playoffs. So if you see your world turning upside down. Be the pretender BG is. Money is on the way. You Love the packers. Your imagination to have or have not, isn't the concern. You gave your heart to the packers. If Luck is with us, we will win today.

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HighPlainsDrifter's picture

November 22, 2020 at 10:57 am

I'll bet that you thought this was clever when you wrote it. Perhaps even humorous.

It's neither.

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Stroh's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:30 pm

The real pretender is YOU. Go away!! Your an embarrassment... to yourself!

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PeteK's picture

November 22, 2020 at 07:21 am

Agree , the OL has to start blocking like their rating. Game just got tougher for us because Scott might not play and King has an Achilles injury. Forget about signing this unreliable often injured player. He even gets hurt while rehabbing .

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egbertsouse's picture

November 22, 2020 at 07:38 am

He must have gotten hurt getting out of the whirlpool. Montravius Adams is hurt again, toe injury. May have stubbed it getting on the bus to the airport.

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Hematite's picture

November 22, 2020 at 10:08 am

They really need to just move on from King!
He plays pretty good when he's healthy but he's only healthy for about five minutes per season.

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Stroh's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:34 pm

Yeah lets put Josh freakin Jackson on the field full time! I'll take King over the bust that is Josh Jackson! Even if its only 2/3 of the games.

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ricky's picture

November 22, 2020 at 07:39 am

Thanks. I had become somewhat optimistic about the Packers chances. But you're right. Why not just forfeit the game, rather than risk injury and embarrassment? Or, maybe, just maybe, this team could decide that they're sick and tired of hearing how soft they are. That this team will decide it's time to show up, take a punch in the mouth, and deliver a punch to the gut in return. Maybe, just maybe Pettine will sell out on stopping the run, and when Rivers starts throwing longer passes, mix up the coverage between soft zone and man-to-man to keep them guessing. In short, maybe this team takes pride in themselves, and maybe Pettine decides he's actually trying to show why he should keep his job. It's gut check time. Either the Packers show some as a team, or they can just get into the playoffs and make an early exit against another team that out toughs them. As Tallahassee stated so succinctly in "Zombieland": "Time to nut up or shut up."

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egbertsouse's picture

November 22, 2020 at 08:00 am

What is the deal with JK Scott? First they said back problems, now they’re saying “personal matter.” Weird situation.

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HighPlainsDrifter's picture

November 22, 2020 at 10:16 am

I'd say that is none of your business.

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Kb999's picture

November 22, 2020 at 08:26 am

Send Pettine back to the Jets

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Kb999's picture

November 22, 2020 at 08:26 am

Send Pettine back to the Jets

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murf7777's picture

November 22, 2020 at 08:48 am

I like our chances. Certainly they are better run D, rated 4th and we are rated 12th in YPG. So, yes per that stat we are better then average. We will give up some rushing yards, that’s ok, unless it is 150+ And they control the TOP.

More importantly, Indy has only beat one winning team, Tennessee and have been beaten by double digits to two winning teams, Baltimore and Cleveland. Also, they were beaten by Jacksonville by 7.

You can argue that we one winning team as well, New Orleans. But our losses were a blow out by TB and a close 6 point loss to a rising Vikings team.

With Lazard’s listed as probable and our D close to full strength we have a good chance to beat them by double digits, just like Baltimore and Cleveland. With no wind to deal with, Rodgers and company (Adams, Lazard’s, Jones, Williams and Tonyan) are poised to make some big 20+ yard plays.

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murf7777's picture

November 22, 2020 at 09:01 am

Oops, I forgot to add MVS, he is really starting to com on, just need better consistency. Indy will have to keep an eye on him with a deep safety. That will open up the field and make our O very difficult for them to stop and I don’t see Indy keeping up.

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Tarynfor12's picture

November 22, 2020 at 10:41 am

"More importantly, Indy has only beat one winning team, Tennessee and have been beaten by double digits to two winning teams, Baltimore and Cleveland. Also, they were beaten by Jacksonville by 7."

"You can argue that we one winning team as well, New Orleans. But our losses were a blow out by TB and a close 6 point loss to a rising Vikings team."

So the mantra ' A win is a win' only applies to GB, but 'A loss is a loss' applies to every team except GB.

Hypocritical as it's best.

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Coldworld's picture

November 22, 2020 at 12:01 pm

Optimism ... one of the lesser original sins.

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Leatherhead's picture

November 22, 2020 at 04:28 pm

That is pretty cynical, but not untrue.

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murf7777's picture

November 22, 2020 at 12:22 pm

Not really, as I stated there is an argument to be made. The facts I laid out are, they had two big number defeats to two winning teams and a loss to a losing team. We had one big loss to a winning team and one close loss to an up an rising team. That shows us as an advantage, albeit small, that is all I’m stating. There are always more stats or records someone can point towards.

Those are just facts, so don’t act like you know my thoughts and call me hypocritical! How is stating facts hypocritical? You come across as a know it all and overly critical person.

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Leatherhead's picture

November 22, 2020 at 04:26 pm

I like this mantra: You are never as good, or as bad, as you look.

And this one: The best team doesn’t always win, the team that plays the best that day does.

We’re 7-2. At some point, you are what your record says you are.

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dobber's picture

November 22, 2020 at 11:12 am

We can talk about who a team has beaten...but you can only play the teams on your schedule. If you win the majority of the games you're supposed to win, and steal some you are dogs in, you're doing pretty well. That's where the Colts and Packers both are at this point.

We can point to Tennessee, but that Tennessee defense is statistically inferior to the Packers...and they get bled out on a weekly basis (in some ways, they look like the Packers). TN has a big play offense, and the defense happens to be good at getting opportune TOs (something the Packers don't do). That's how they win games.

If you watch the Colts play, their offense runs through Rivers. He throws 35 passes per game...on a 6-3 team with a really good OL. It's all about play action and his getting the ball out. Surprisingly, with that OL, they're not a great running team. Their ypc is good, but it's bolstered by a small number of longer runs per game--usually on passing downs and out of spread formations--not by consistent run production. The key today will be the Packers winning +/- and preventing Indy from looking like a great running team. If they can do that and get some pressure on Rivers, I like their chances.

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Stroh's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:44 pm

If play action is a big part of the Colts offense, it will be a non factor against the Packers. The Packers play the run on the way to thw QB. Its almost an afterthought to the Packers.

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Alex-Jones's picture

November 22, 2020 at 10:05 am

Watch NFL Game 2020 Live Stream Online Free

Watch HERE: https://livetvable.com/nfl-stream

Watch HERE: https://livetvable.com/nfl-stream

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Hematite's picture

November 22, 2020 at 10:13 am

Energy, they gotta come out and play with some energy!
No more of this sleep walking crap!

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Stroh's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:46 pm

On the road they have played with energy. At home they haven't.

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OldPacker's picture

November 22, 2020 at 11:14 am

If Pack keeps the game close in 1st half .. we have a real chance .. if it comes down to final drives AR over Rivers every time.. the real impact is the turnover battle... need plus 2 and ST's have to have a good game not great just don't mess up.. so no missed FG/EP , shank punts , run backs... this game will tell us everything we need to know about future success! Go Pack

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Hematite's picture

November 22, 2020 at 11:23 am

Punts could be an adventure today with a new punter.
Hopefully the Packers won't have to punt today.

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PhantomII's picture

November 22, 2020 at 12:28 pm

It's also an adventure w/ our current punter.

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Coldworld's picture

November 22, 2020 at 12:38 pm

Kaser was dumped for his holding supposedly after their kicker missed field goals from what I understand. Sounds odd, but I don’t expect he will hold for Crosby today anyway

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Bear's picture

November 22, 2020 at 01:10 pm

Kaser is a better punter than Scott.

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Since'61's picture

November 22, 2020 at 11:17 am

I would like to see our defense play with a sense of urgency and play aggressively. Would like to see some better tackling and someone on the defense step up and take a leadership role on the field.

It’s time to play some football. Go Pack Go!
Thanks, Since ‘61

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Coldworld's picture

November 22, 2020 at 12:03 pm

Well said. We may not win against this team, but how we play, the attitude and determination on both sides of the ball will speak volumes about players and coaches.

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Fabio's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:53 pm

One reflection. If we swap the quaterbacks, would we have any hope of winning in your opinion? I believe zero

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Leatherhead's picture

November 22, 2020 at 11:49 am

If the Packers score 30 we’ll win. I need to see this offense accomplish something against an above average defense.

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Stroh's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:53 pm

Not just the offense, but Rodgers in particular. Name a top D D he's beaten in the past decade, that's not in the division?!

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Packers0808's picture

November 22, 2020 at 02:06 pm

Either going to be a long day or we will be on the right end of a close win!

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