The Lass Word: This Will Be a True BPA Draft for Packers

First round possibilities are wide open.

It’s a most unusual run up to a draft for the Green Bay Packers.  Normally by this time, the front office has a solid understanding of what kind of draft picks they have to work with, and also a particular unit or two which they know in advance they have to emphasize. 

For example, last year they knew well ahead of time they would have to draft multiple receivers (they took three).  In both 2018 and 2021 they were well aware their top priority would be defensive backs.  They went DB with their first two selections in 2018 and their top pick in 2021. 

But this year is different. A look at the current state of the Green Bay roster shows holes all over the place.  And that makes this a true BPA (best player available) draft.  There’s not a single unit on the team you can look at and say “this position is set.  They need no help at all.”  The only units close to being complete are running back and inside linebacker, but even those are a bit misleading. With the beating those running backs take, plus the fact AJ Dillon is entering the final year of his deal, makes even that room in need of quality reinforcement. The defection of Krys Barnes to Arizona leaves the ILB unit very thin behind De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker. 

At first glance, the most urgent area of need would seem to be safety.  Adrian Amos is not re-signed, Darnell Savage is getting close to bust status, and that leaves you with Tariq Carpenter, Rudy Ford, Innis Gaines and Tarvarius Moore.  Hard to see any potential quality starters from that bunch. Rasul Douglas at safety? Seems like a good fit but coaches don’t appear to want to make that move, maybe because they need cornerbacks. 

But safety is hardly alone in needing high draft pick additions.  Look at the defensive line.  The loss of Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry has seriously weakened this area.  You may not have thought Reed and Lowry were very good, but it certainly didn’t take long for the Seahawks and Vikings respectively to snap them up.  Devonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton are next line to move up to the starting line up alongside Kenny Clark, but you need a solid five man rotation and I’m not sure you get that from the likes of Jonathan Ford and Chris Slayton.  A first round DL would be welcome here. 

Edge?  Rashan Gary is a total question mark this season as he recovers from knee surgery.  Preston Smith is great when he’s on, but inconsistent.  Second year man Kingsley Enagbare flashes but has a long way to go.  The re-signed Justin Hollins made a few plays.  Jonathan Garvin is strictly a sub.  A day one pick here would certainly not be a waste. 

Would it shock you if Green Bay wound up drafting a corner with their first pick?  Not me.  Eric Stokes has to come back from a knee.  The way cornerbacks have to pivot and change direction makes that a very iffy proposition, to say nothing of the fact that Stokes was not playing well even when healthy last year.  Jaire Alexander is elite but I’m still not sold on Rasul Douglas as a consistently strong defender.  His big plays are becoming legendary, but his lack of speed gets him in trouble.  There are no real quality prospects behind them unless you consider Keisean Nixon as such.  I don’t. 

I still see receiver as an urgent need.  I fear Christian Watson, talented as he is, may be oft injured.  Romeo Doubs is fine, Samori Toure is unproven.  I don’t see much else there.  The Pack will likely sign a veteran here, but they should draft at least two more wideouts, and taking them within the first three picks would not be overkill. 

The tight end cupboard is dangerously bare.  Josiah Deguara is mostly a blocker.  Ditto for Tyler Davis.  Green Bay is suffering from a little bad luck here.  Robert Tonyan’s knee injury scuttled his career, and Jace Sternberger was a bust.  There is a tasty selection of tight ends at the top of this draft, and I would be surprised if the Packers don’t add one with a very high pick. 

The offensive line is set on the left side with Bakhtiari and Jenkins, but Myers, Runyan and Nijman are not a sure thing on the right.  Maybe Tom develops.  You never have enough quality at this position, and drafting an OL in the first round never hurts you. 

Quarterback?  Well, the team will have to draft one.  Probably not high, but maybe higher than you think.  The depth behind Jordan Love is non-existent.  Even kicker is not a sure thing, although Brian Gutekunst has said Mason Crosby will be back. 

With so many positions needing help, this is one draft where the Packers should truly be able to look at their draft board when their turn comes up, and feel good about taking their highest rated player, regardless of position.  Adding to the intrigue is the possibility of extra early picks if the Aaron Rodgers trade comes through.  

 It should make for an entertaining guessing game for fans as the draft approaches.  If you can correctly guess Green Bay’s first round pick this year, you will have truly earned the title of draft guru. 

 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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9 points
 

Comments (165)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
HarryHodag's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:45 am

After the first 10 picks(mostly QB's) the difference between the talent at pick 15 and the second round is about the same. Pending the outcome of the Aaron Rodgers trade, the Packers might do well to trade back from 15(assuming some team wants that pick). If they have a couple of seconds and a couple of thirds they would go a long way to fill those holes.

8 points
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NickPerry's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:00 am

Oops...Sorry Harry, I was busy posting my long winded comment and didn't see you alluded to the same thing I did. I totally agree, MULTIPLE picks in the 2nd round would go a long, LONG way in shoring up the cupboards.

I'm just not so keen on getting more 3rds...

9 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:27 am

You always want as many first round picks as possible. But I think the Packers would benefit more if they got the Jets two 2nd round picks.

You never know how trades work during the draft and you can't count on a team wanting to move up for a player in the first round. So lets say whatever the trade would be with the Jets, those are the picks the keep. So the choices are either 13, 15, 45 or 15, 42, 43, 45. I think having 4 picks in the first 45 is more valuable then having the 3. That one extra player can make a huge difference in how the team is shaped.

4 points
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fthisJack's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:58 am

I think having 13,15,45 is the best. you could always drop down into the twenties and get an additional 2nd rounder. So you would end up with 2 firsts and 3 seconds.

4 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:39 am

That is if someone is willing to trade up. If they could trade down with one of the 2 first round picks and pick up a 2nd round pick, I would absolutely do that.

But if it is just based one the picks, I would take the two 2nd round picks. I don't see a huge difference in talent from 13 to 43. Why not get 2 players vs 1.

4 points
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dobber's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:42 am

If a guy you have a high-end grade slides to you?
I tend to agree on a trade down, but the Packers aren't used to picking in the middle teens. Trust your board.

4 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:33 am

Exactly.

The good ones aren't fluid. Athlon has been my go-to for a very long time, and they build out their mock (singular x 2 rounds) and their big board months in advance of the Combine.

Oddly enough, they, to me, remain the most accurate indicator of how teams will draft, and what #s players slot into.

2 points
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Leatherhead's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:30 am

Many years ago, I read a paper by some scholarly guys that was referred to as The Loser's Curse, and it detailed how getting a high draft pick for having a bad record is just as much of a curse as it is a blessing, because they cost more and it's worse drafting a bust high in the draft than lower.

They used a bunch of Greek letters and math and showed that the optimum pick...performance, cost, likelihood of failure, was #43. And they said essentially what HH just said: That in any draft, after the first several guys, you can drop 16 places....half a round....and still get a player who is comparable. I've checked this for many years and I think it's dead on. IMO, the best picks to have are those early second round picks, because these are guys that could have just as easily been picked in the first round. Plus, because it's on the second day, you have an entire overnight for your staff to look over the board and plan any moves you might want to take.

If we could get the Jets 42 and 43, and trade #15 with t he Cardinals for their picks at 34, 66, and 96, and add them to our own remaining picks at 45 and 78, we'd be looking at 34, 42,43,45, 66, 78, 96.

5 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:14 pm

Richard Thaler, Graduate School of Economics @ University of Chicago. Behavioral Economics and decision-making processes. He understood a simple concept in which extremism is inefficient. 2017 Nobel prize. Not affiliated with Lucas and Sargent.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:20 pm

Yes, but it’s really perhaps more of a warning against high priced FAs in a football context in my view, if you follow the logic through. They use the draft as a visible, multi person annual hiring based upon data known to be partial and not directly comparable. The premise is that the inadequacy of information in the draft is such that it distorts evaluation to an extent that outweighs the investment required over the long term. They then extrapolate the draft to any other significant corporate hire.

There is another 2020 study that concludes mid round picks offer the greatest consistent return on investment. The peak being in the 3rd round. Presumably they aren’t Packers fans. Christopher M. Duquette and Richard J. Cebula, “The Economics of the NFL Draft: Improved Estimates of Draft-Order Valuations.”

1 points
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Swisch's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:36 pm

At least the free agents have proved themselves at the NFL, but I'm wary of whether free agents are going to continue to play at the same high level once they get a huge contract.
Plus, I'm against totally guaranteed contracts. Perhaps one-third of a contract should be guaranteed -- which provides a player some protection against being cut too readily, but doesn't burden the team for years of inactivity.

-1 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:33 pm

I wouldn’t affiliate myself with those guys either.
Shady.

1 points
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Swisch's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:47 pm

Let's get this info to Mark Murphy ASAP so as to get the trade of Aaron Rodgers done.
***
Generally speaking, if there's an elite edge rusher available to the Packers at #15, or Washington at tight end, would it be better to take that player or to trade down for one pick each in the second and third rounds?
As a related question, how many elite players are in this 2023 draft -- "the first several guys" -- who are worth staying in place in the first round?
***
What is the difference in pay between a first-round pick and a second-round pick? Is it really that wide of a gap?
Also, teams get an extra year with first-round picks, which seems like a big plus.
***
Thanks for the fascinating theory, Leatherhead (also for the related info from jannes and Coldworld). It seems compelling, at least worthy of good discussion.

-1 points
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Since'75's picture

March 29, 2023 at 05:53 am

There are only 2 reasons you draft BPA....

1) A team is a true draft and develop team, which the Packers haven't been for years.

2) You have so many positions to fill, taking BPA is absolutely prudent.
**************
Sometimes you have a strong enough team where you are just one or two players away from taking you where you want to go.

Which reminds me of the 2020 receiver rich draft. Gute didn't agree..

Hats off to Ken Lass, taking a truthful, somewhat painful look at the state of the team as of today.

One thing is for sure.....this team is not one or two players away.....that window recently closed.
But we got a future QB!!
Well, we'll see what we have there.

Forget all the protective talk coming from MLF concerning expecations for Love.
He sat for 3 years behind one of the best.
Lets find out what he's learned, and if he can handle defenses in real games.

The praise of looking good in shorts and no contact in training camp and practice is over.
You have to prove yourself in real games, against real competition.

Nobody should be crowned in camp or practices.

Bring on Jordon Love i say....show me why it was more important to draft him, then try to add talent (on the field) when we got so close to the SB.

-1 points
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NickPerry's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:58 am

"At first glance, the most urgent area of need would seem to be safety."... OR TWO.
"Edge?" ... Yes please!
"Would it shock you if Green Bay wound up drafting a corner with their first pick?" ... Not a bit, especially if Douglas is moved to Safety.
"I still see receiver as an urgent need." ... Me too.
"The tight end cupboard is dangerously bare. Josiah Deguara is mostly a blocker. Ditto for Tyler Davis." You mean Tyler Davis can block? I'm sorry, I need video evidence on that!

IMO these are the TOP 5 places the Packers need to focus and that's not even including Tackle which I'd wait until the 4th for, QB, where they almost have to add an arm to the room, or RB which in 2024 could be as bare as the TE room is now.

Part of me wants to draft offense just to piss off Rodgers. Hell, lets take Smith-Njigba at 15, get BOTH of those 2nd round picks from the Jets to go with their own and grab Kincaid, Washington or Musgrave if they are there, a Safety, maybe Jartavius 'Quan' Martin from Illinois who can play CB or the slot, and then a Edge guy who still should be there at 45.

The thing is the Packers DO have quite a few holes as Ken has wonderfully pointed out (Thanks Ken). The strength of this draft is picks say picks 20 to 80, maybe even a bit higher. This is a DEEP draft the for the first 3 rounds where the difference between a pick at 30th and one at 65 isn't all that different.

I'm all for the Packers getting the 13th pick but I have this horrible feeling that isn't happening. But I also believe if the Jets screw this up and don't get Rodgers and end up with Matt Ryan for example, you better put Jets HC Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas in protective custody. IF the Packers were to get those two 2nd round picks, maybe Chuck Clark, the Safety they just traded for, AND an conditional pick for 2024 which becomes higher and higher the better the Jets and Rodgers do in 2023. Or maybe you'd rather have Corey Davis who can do much of the same this Lazard did for the Packers during his time here. Mostly though I just want this whole thing DONE!

Even looking at the long list of true NEEDS for the 2023 Packers, I'm still stoked as hell for the start of the season. In all honesty I haven't been this excited for the start of a season in a long time. Get er done Gutey!

12 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:19 am

"Part of me wants to draft offense just to piss off Rodgers."

I fully am expecting Gutey to do this. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they used their first 2 picks on WR and TE.

6 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:05 am

RC, if Gute goes WR and TE with his first 2 picks, I sure hope it has nothing to do with spite. That would be a piss poor way of running an organization.

I'm not saying he won't prioritize those picks, but I don't think his ex-QB will influence that decision in any way.

8 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:41 am

I agree Maine. I just can see Gutey doing it.

I would honestly hope it would be more for building around his new QB rather then to throw a couple of middle fingers up to the old QB.

4 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:17 am

RC. I think Gute is smarter than that. His job is to improve the team. If he thinks drafting a WR and TE with his first 2 picks is best for the team, great, I tend to agree getting Love weapons should be a priority. Any other motive would be petty and has no place in a GM's decision making.

It won't happen, but give Jordan Love 2 pro-ready safety valves like JSN and Mayer, and I think his transition to QB1 is relatively seamless.

0 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:45 am

I agree Maine.

I really think they may like Washington for the TE. He would fit right into Lewis's role as an inline TE. But would likely offer more as a pass catcher. Washington is the best blocking TE in the class and with LaFleur that is something he loves.

1 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:06 am

I like Washington, but I think he is more of a project. Mayer may not have his upside , but he is a well rounded TE that can do it all, and has. More in the Jason Witten/Mark Andrews mold than the Kyle Pitts/OJ Howard freak athlete type.

3 points
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NickPerry's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:19 pm

I agree 100% Maine... I meant as more of a joke...Sort of!

1 points
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MainePackFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:04 pm

lol. sorta kinda : )

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:08 am

Bravo Nick!
As always a great post!

I like the part of "part of me want to draft offense just to piss off Rodgers". LOL! Let's add to the pile of pissed off chips already on his shoulders.

I am actually more pumped about this upcoming season than I have been for quite a long time. The team will struggle but it is a new beginning and there is a lot of uncertainty, which for me is enjoyable. I want to watch Gutey reconstruct a team and see a young team with talent ascend to once again be a powerhouse.

2 points
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stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:09 am

You say BPA. I say Strength of the draft.
And the strength of this draft is edge.
A team NEVER has enough Pass Rushers.!
And things change on a Dime in the NFL.
The numbers are in. The age is the forecast.
Take the Game changer.
Not the safe pick. BPA = Need = Bust.
Because the grades don't match the output.
This is a weak draft. The hype is Offense.
The studs are Defense.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:23 am

Edge, CBs and TEs early.

3 points
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dobber's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:56 am

OT in there, too.

0 points
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DoubleJ's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:30 am

Overall the OT talent isn't that great in this draft. I think that will cause teams to reach them when there is a rush on OT and this will allow for players at deeper positions to drop.

5 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:24 pm

The top three will be gone by the middle of round one.

2 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:32 pm

2023 is just a rough draft for Interior OL. As for OT, it is unchanged from last year. Other positions having down years are LB & Safety. RB takes a little dip overall.

This EDGE class is insanely better. QB takes the 2nd biggest jump. WR is showing again to be solid, as is OT - with both position groups virtually unchanged from 2022. TE has a slight uptick, inverse the amount at RB. CB remains strong, unchanged from 2022. DL unchanged, if not slightly better than 2022.

**PFF has 13 EDGE rushers in its Top 50 player rankings. 7 in the Top 32. That's why we might want to hit EDGE early. 4 of them projected to go off the board by #20. 10 more projected to go off the board by #50.

Only 2 TE projected to go off the board in R1, both mid 20s.

Four OTs expected to be taken R1. Three of those 4 between picks 10 and 20.

3 DL are expected to be picked R1.
2 Safeties are suspected to be R1 picks.
1 RB, mid 20s.
0 LBs
0 iOL

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:23 pm

May have to sniff out Bergeron, Jaelyn Duncan, or Steen later on. I 'm going Edge, WR, TE. Hopefully two or more selections in round two.

1 points
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:26 pm

Its really not tho. After Will Anderson, the edge talent drops off the map. Theres not another edge in this draft id use a 1st round pick on.

-1 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:17 am

Currently for the Packers the draft hinges on what happens with Rodgers. Do they get a deal worked out for Rodgers before the draft? If so what will the compensation look like? Do they get the 13th pick? Do they get picks 42 and 43? Do they get a player back.

There is a lot that can happen until this trade goes through.

Right now I would put the needs in different tiers. Tier 1 is needing starters. Tier 2 is needing backup/role players/possible starters this year. Tier 3 is backups/depth players.

I think the Tier 1 needs are TE, DB, WR, K
I think the Tier 2 needs are DL, Edge, OL, QB,
I think the Tier 3 needs are RB, LB

TE and S are the 2 biggest needs for immediate starters. They can get by at TE with who they have and with WR's. But they need more help at WR. Safety they could move Douglas to S, but then they will need help at CB. Ideally they would keep Douglas at CB as they figured out towards the end of the year how to use him and he was really good down the stretch. Go find some safety help! WR they need to keep adding Weapons! They need more speed and more playmaking ability. They need to take pressure off of Love so he doesn't have to be superman. They need him to get the ball to the guys to make plays.

For DL hey can start Clark, Wyatt and Slaton. But they need more depth and more starting caliber players. They kept Ford on the roster all year for a reason. Basically redshirting him and grooming him to be a player this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they drafted a DL fairly early this year. Depending on who is available.
They need help on the Edge. Without knowing where Gary is in rehab, we have to assume that he won't be back right away. And if he is, likely won't be as productive. So they need help. Enagbare I really like, and I like they brought back Hollins. But they need more guys that can affect the passing game. They have to find another QB. And OL they always need to draft for OL. Just like CB.

ILB is pretty set. But they can always use late round picks to find guys to play ILB and to help on special teams. RB the top duo is set. I really like Goodson. He could be a guy to earn playing time this year. Patrick Taylor also looked good in his playing opportunities. I wouldn't be surprised if they were to draft a RB higher then some may think. I could see them drafting a guy in round 2-4 if a guy they like was there. One reason is because who knows how long they plan to keep Jones and Dillon. Another reason is they will likely be trying to play through the running game more this year. So i could see them getting another RB and trying to create a trio of guys that are the best in the league.

Also they need to figure out the K position.

Thanks for taking time to read my article within the article.

5 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:28 pm

Gutedkunst wants Crosby back.

1 points
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BA4Packers's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:27 am

I was feeling irrationally optimistic about the Pack until I read this article.

11 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:33 am

Don't let an article affect your optimism.

I'm always fully optimistic.

5 points
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Lootstone's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:56 pm

Lass tends to do that to people. I've been here for maybe a month and I've learned that quite quickly lol.

To boost your spirits and let you calm the storm that will come even after the draft, I'm sure. We still have free agents that we can target. Michael Clemons, for instance, missed 0 tackles last year and is on the table still. 1 mil to sign - to me, can fill a need right away.

If I'm GB, I'm going offense for the draft since that seems to be already snatched via free agent marketplace, and there is some great talent this year.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:39 am

This draft seems shallow at the blue chip level. It’s got some strength at Edge. Some depth in terms of WR and TE, but not at the elite level. DT doesn’t impress and nor does S.

Looking at what we have been doing, I’d say that we may feel that we are mostly ok at ILB with two starters, the leading back up from last year and Wilson resigned. We probably won’t add at CB till later. Stokes is expected back. Savage expected to play a slot role. I think Nixon will get more snaps. OL depends on perspective, but I believe the team is more sanguine than many here. Again, a later addition or two is likely—I think in the middle. I think we like what we have at T.

Where we have no obvious options is DL. While I think Wyatt and Slaton will see more snaps, Ford and Slayton are unknowns. I think we have to add competitive depth. Edge is the same. Smith and Enagbare plus Hollins isn’t cutting it in terms of depth. Relying on the light to come on for Garvin or any other back up seems like too long a shot. S is another. If Douglas does move we still really just have Ford and maybe Savage. We just signed a mega athlete in Moore, but he’s as yet a but Ford like—great if he gets it right, but has tendencies not to regularly. Relying in that group is not a good plan now or for the future.

And then we have a largely empty TE room, especially if, like me, you see Deguara as a H Back or a bit part emergency TE. Davis did not take a step on O last year. I don’t actually see a true starting caliber TE. WR is populated by essentially 4 2022 draft picks: Watson, Doubs, Toure and Melton (by Seattle), There is a lot of upside there, though our coaches handling of young WRs needs to improve. Last year was a stunningly deep WR class, Doubs, Melton and Toure would go much higher this year. I also think Goodson can contribute this year if the coaching is imaginative enough. At RB, I’m fine with Dillon/Taylor and Jones/Goodson. We may add one later or UDFAs. That’s a role easier to fill in the year of drafting and I think that fact will factor in.

So, looking at this, there are clear areas where we have to add talent. There are also sheer numbers. With our cap, we aren’t going to fill all the holes via the draft and FA. We may pick up a couple of summer cheap vets. S, CB, G, DL are positions where there has been cheap talent available in the past to hold position at least. However, there are no guarantees that there will be good enough options.

So we can afford to go BPA in a true sense only if we accept that this is a cap curing rebuild year. I’m fine with that, Personally I’d sign a developmental QB with upside and keep Etling as QB2 as a result. I’d also avoid mediocre vet WRs and bet in youth and giving it a chance to grow. However, we have to give Love something to target and we have to accept injuries are going ti happen and plan for viable depth accordingly. LaFleur us surely desperate to give Barry help. That means finding Edge, DL, S help.

Like it or not, numbers dictate that there is going to be a large UDFA class and that’s got to provide something more than PS bodies. STs is actually fairly stocked now with returners and returning accomplished performers. That’s near unique in modern Packer history.

I therefore see a lot of gambles on high potential but unproven types seeking to find a few diamonds. If a UDFA believes in himself, or an SFA who feels like he’s never had the chance, the Packers is the place to come and prove it this year I think.

As to the draft, unless it goes very unexpectedly id try to trade back and maximize picks (and be open to doing so in later rounds if it gets more picks). I would see a very much need influenced approach to BPA. We simply need certain positions: DL/S/Edge/TE at a minimum. That doesn’t rule out upside picks if we accept that this is a growth year, but at least our first 3 need to be contribute significantly now first types. I think that shapes the draft more than true BPA and that gambles on upside will shape the back half and UDFA with Gute tracking for cheap competent depth in the summer.

If I had to guess, in this draft (and I’m assuming no significant picks from Rodgers this year), the first choice is a trade(s) back and to take an edge, followed by a TE unless there’s a DL/S we really like still there and then a DL/S followed by WR and best upside BPA fits after that. Need blending into upside. We must know the draft can’t fill all the holes, so then I expect a trickle of cheap SFAs to plug holes once we know what we do get. Then it’s up to the coaches to bring on and develop.

4 points
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3
PackEyedOptimist's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:22 am

Excellent "book" CW! I can't wait for the movie!
:-D

I'll repeat what I posted yesterday; I think the biggest need for the roster is a starting 5 tech, and this draft class is abysmal there; however, Keion White of Georgia Tech (6'5", 285, 34' arms, 10" hands, 30 rep bench, 4.75 40) is a super high ceiling prospect. I don't think "Boom-or-bust" fits him, more like Boom-or-OK."
Having White and Wyatt on the line as pass-rushers could greatly reduce the need for a high-round edge.

Then the best TE (or BPA) at 45.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:55 am

I agree with the caveat that another edge isn’t far off. I do agree though that there are options at edge throughout this draft and not at 5 tech. If White is there then he’d be a pick I certainly won’t complain of in terms of player or strategy.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:02 am

Whatever blue chip is available, take him. If Porter,Jr falls, he would be a target.

2 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:13 am

Enjoyed reading your in-depth thoughts CW!

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:58 am

Yes, sorry, it grew. The draft is a big picture endeavor, and our cap and roster make it particularly so this year it think, along with the pressure on coaches to show that they have it on both O and D.

1 points
2
1
stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:32 am

Don't be sorry.-
It was the best post I've read from you lately.
The Only thing I wouldn't do is trade back for edge.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:26 am

Just to clarify, since it doesn’t read quite as I intended, I don’t suggest moving back in order to take an Edge. If there’s one at 15 we really like, take him. I just think the most likely outcome is that, if they do move back, we pick an edge with our first selection.

I’d love Washington, but he’s one guy and I wouldn’t take another TE in round one and I have him rated at 25 or after, I think there will be a few Edges with later round one grades from 16 down.

2 points
3
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:29 pm

I hate to say it, but I wouldnt be surprised if they went with Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. If they're ruly going BPA, those 2 have to at least be considered at #15. Will likely be the top 2 left on the board when they pick.

-2 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:52 pm

RTS,
You're the 2nd person I've seen advocate for Bijan Robinson, and the first I've seen to pitch Gibbs. Both players have merit at the 13 or the 15. Without question.

I'm leaning heavily on adding OT early along with DL or EDGE, but, Ourlads has Robinson ranked as the #5 overall player on their big board, and Gibbs' skill set is arguably better overall, but, lacks heavily in pass pro...

I'm not adverse in the least about adding one of the best RBs in the draft, not to mention, one of the best players overall into this Packers Offense.

Gotta have RBs, and really good ones can go a long way towards taking you there. Our RB depth isn't great behind Jones/Dillon. Using RBs more is what I would love to see. A 3-headed monster assault in the run game.

Both players can readily work out of the slot as well.

1 points
1
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:36 pm

Dont get me wrong, I'm not overly thrilled at the idea of a 1st round rb, especially with the amount of resources GB has tied up in the rb position already. But im not overly thrilled about the 1st round of this draft beyond maybe the top 10-12 picks. After that, its mostly players with 2nd round grades. With all that being said, when its the Packers turn to pick and Robinson or Gibbs are the top guys on their board, they have to consider it right? Why take a lesser player at a position of need and leave the better player for their opponents? This is the crux of why many fans dont like BPA. Most fans want to throw picks at perceived positions of need instead of just getting the best players regardless of position. Its how we ended up with AJ Dillon and many fans hated the pick. Just get the best football players and the rest will sort itself out.

0 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:35 pm

Thumbs up RTS because you are totally correct if Gutey truly drafts BPA with Bijan. People can thumbs down because they don't want Bijan, but it has nothing to do with who would be the BPA.

0 points
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PatrickGB's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:57 am

We will see. I expect some surprises. Yet if the BPA and RAS score match up with the draft position and need, then all is golden. 😉

2 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:59 am

Tarvarius Moore will start for the Packers.

You can’t just disregard SF’s mistake in moving him to CB as a rookie. Moore never could produce there. He’s a natural Safety with elite run stop.

Tarvarius Moore - Southern Miss
6-2 191 4.32 11.1 broad 38.5 vertical RAS 9.22

During Moore’s Senior year (2017) 522 of his 831 defensive snaps were either in the box or at FS, earning an elite run-defense grade of 90.2 that ranked 1st among the 123 draft-eligible safeties and an 82.9 coverage grade that ranked tied for 18th.

His last two years Moore had an 86.2 coverage grade and allowed just nine completions on 24 targets for 173 yards and one touchdown, 5 INT, 2 PBU. Passer rating allowed off just 37.7 on throws into his coverage — 3rd best among Safeties with at least 20 targets in coverage.

Moore’s a premium athlete w smooth hips, fluid feet, ability to handle man cover matchups that others could struggle with.

Aside from that, Ken, I agree on the rest. It’s wide open.

15 points
15
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PatrickGB's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:07 am

Thanks for the positive post on Moore. I was wondering about him. I think that Rich B. may have a pretty good eye when it comes to players. These ST’s players he has brought in seem to have diversified talent. Maybe he should sit in the draft room?

6 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:13 am

Moore is a great pick up, but he’s still a question mark. He’s not paid as if he were projected as a long term starter for a reason. He will have every chance—it’s a great opportunity for him—but it’s far from a sure thing. With Ford and some combination of Savage/Douglas as the only other options, Moore is not enough even if he proves as good as GG hopes.

3 points
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1
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:45 am

Picture 2018 SF. They signed the aging Richard Sherman in FA at CB, drafted the physical clone of Sherman in Moore, and moved him immediately to CB, to learn from one of the best in the game.

That was the error, and Moore paid for it, because his natural position is Safety.

That's where we are with Moore, and I'm certain both he and the Packers D will benefit greatly in this new scenario.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:57 am

I like the pick up GG, but he’s still mostly a prospect and he’s only one guy. We need at least another. That could be a vet, it could be a guy like Vernon Scott, or it could be a draft pick. I see Ford as a 3rd S. Neither Moore nor Douglas at S are truly proven and injuries happen.

1 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:52 am

Oh, I agree. But, Tarvarius Moore gives us the luxury of not having to add two...!!! Grateful for that. I've always liked Scott, but damn if he doesn't know that trainers table intimately.

There are 5 safeties in this draft I like quite a bit, any of which I'd be really happy to see in green & gold... Gimme Brents all day. Skinner fits the bill perfectly as well. Hickman doesn't suck, and neither does Battle. Branch? Can't wait for his Pro Day.

At least the position isn't hemorrhaging like DE/EDGE, TE and OT anymore, now with Tarvarius Moore in the fold.

1 points
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dobber's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:59 pm

"Oh, I agree. But, Tarvarius Moore gives us the luxury of not having to add two"

Gutey always finds those low-cost guys prior to the draft to shore up the depth chart and give himself a freer hand.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:23 pm

The special teams depth chart is mostly in place. Now get the offense and pass rush. Some are anxious about D-line, but maybe they forget Wyatt was the 3 tech at #29. I want two Edge guys and CBs for the defense, forget the rest.

0 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:37 pm

Brents is a corner. He holds the perimeter.

0 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:37 pm

Dude, I don’t care if he plays Long Snapper, I want him on this football team.

Thank you, draftbuzz.

Looking further, he’s a former Safety.

0 points
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TKWorldWide's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:48 pm

But Moore is way faster than Sherman ever was.

2 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:59 pm

Way faster than Nate McMillan too, which should be the real comparison…

We’ll add another Safety. I’m not worried about this position. There’s some good Safeties in this class. Just gotta get yours early.

0 points
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jurp's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:19 am

Maybe he should sit in the head coach's chair?

0 points
2
2
croatpackfan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:00 pm

Or at least in Assistant HC chair!?

1 points
1
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:11 am

One thing to keep in mind is since Gutey has become GM, he has found these under the radar players and they became very good players for GB. Campbell, Douglas, Nixon to name a few.

It would not surprise me if Moore would become one of the starting safety's and play well.

3 points
4
1
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:40 am

There are a few wild cards already on our futures list. For example, Austin Allen at TE. He could be a very capable blocking TE early and a red zone target. Don’t get me wrong, if Washington fell to us appropriately, Allen wouldn’t make me hesitate, but they might see that as an opportunity to push Washington’s offensive role faster and shift emphasis to a move or WR and less WR blocking.

Nick Guggemos is a super athletic move projecting TE from an NFL family who played almost no college ball due to injury and COVID. Is he a real prospect? James Wiggins is a S and Tyrell Ford and Benjie Franklin are CBS we added in futures deals. Jeff Cotton is a larger, WR with decent speed from a small program. I really don’t know what those five offer, if anything.

It’s also worth remembering that Vernon Scott is still a Packer and looked to be heading to playing time before injury. He may still be part of their plans. If so, perhaps with Moore they feel more relaxed about S.

3 points
3
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:18 am

Ford was a small school CB drafted in the second round of the CFL draft. He’s 24, 5’11 and 188 pounds. At his pro day he ran 4.44-second 40-yard dash, 36.5-inch vertical, 126-inch broad jump, and 17 reps of 225 pounds on the bench press. He also attended the CFL Combine where he ran a 4.42-second forty-yard dash, 7.03-second three-cone drill, and 4.27-second shuttle.

Franklin is an other small school CB, fast, ran a 4.32 at his pro day. 6’ and 172 and managed only 2 bench reps, so obviously needs weight room time.

Jeff Cotton is a 6’2, 205 pound WR who didn’t test due to COVID but ran a 40 in 4.38 seconds with a 36.5-inch vertical leap in a filmed high school work out under NFL emergency protocols. Over two seasons at Idaho, Cotton caught 132 passes for 1,732 yards and 13 touchdowns. He had 83 catches and went over 1,000 yards in just 11 games in 2019, and he had a catch of at least 70 yards in each season. Cotton also returned 16 kickoffs and rushed twice for 28 yards.

James Wiggins is a 5’11, 209 pound S drafted in the 7th by the cardinals. He was timed at 4.40-4.42 in the 40-yard dash, 22 bench press reps, a 38-inch vertical jump, and a 10’7″ broad jump. However, he had had issues with injury. Tremendous athlete who was found in college in coverage when healthy. In 2018 at Cincinnati he registered 54 total tackles, two tackles for loss, nine passes broken up, and four interceptions but was then sidelined until 2020 when he played nine games for the Bearcats, picking off another pass and breaking up seven more.

Nick Guggemos is a 6’5”, 247 pound TE. He’s definitely athletic. Can he really play and how soon is a fair question. If he can be developed he might be a true dark horse. His story is pretty unique and told here: https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/.amp/transactions/packers-give-chance-to-...

2 points
3
1
jurp's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:22 am

One thing is certain, I think - we'll have a wide-open, very interesting training camp this year. It might actually be worthwhile to watch the exhibition games for a change.

3 points
4
1
dobber's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:44 pm

" It might actually be worthwhile to watch the exhibition games for a change."

...I wouldn't go THAT far. ;)

4 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:50 am

Definitely. There are some guys that could take a jump next year. Guys that spent a lot of time on the roster but didn't get much or any playing time. Allen is a guy to keep an eye on. Others I would include are: Tyler Goodson, Samori Toure, Bo Melton, Caleb Jones, Luke Tenuta, Rasheed Walker, Jonathan Ford.
Now these guys could take a step, but we can't count on it. If we have a chance at a talented player we need to take it!
Washington for example is almost a perfect fit for our offense. He is Lewis Jr. If we can take him I do it.

Where do you see Scott as being a Packer? I can't find that anywhere.

0 points
1
1
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:04 am

I looked it up this morning when checking who we had retained, he’s still listed by both the Packers and NFL.

1 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:47 am

Weird. I am looking at Packers.com and it doesn't show up on there.

I liked Scott, but I don't see him on the roster.

2 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:37 am

It could be to do with injury status. He may just not have passed a physical. He’s just listed as under contract with the Packers. Since I don’t know if it’s a technicality and, if so, what that means with respect to their intentions, I just pointed out that he could be in their plans.

2 points
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jannes bjornson's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:37 pm

Thought they released him?

1 points
1
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:55 am

YES! The Packers Pro Personnel Department scouts rock.

Had SF encouraged Moore to be Nate McMillan instead of Richard Sherman Part Deux, he'd still be a 49er.

2 points
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:50 am

I think its underrated how good the Packers have been of recent of unearthing some hidden gems. Obviously not every move has worked out, but they have had some very good ones.

3 points
3
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DoubleJ's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:12 am

Tarvarius Moore is an interesting player. I do wonder how much speed he lost after his torn Achilles tendon. That injury seems to be one of the hardest to come back from and players lose a lot of speed from it.

3 points
3
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BAMABADGER's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:16 am

I like you optimism on Moore. During the 2021 preseason, he tore his Achilles tendon and missed all of 2021. He returned last year and provide zero performance valve to a strong 49er defense. There may be both a performance and medical reason GB signed him on the cheap. We will see.

4 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:40 am

Achilles tears can reduce speed long term. They also have an even longer timescale post initial return than ACLs do to get back fully athletically after being officially fit. The Packers did work out Moore before signing him and he did look athletic in the post season, which is encouraging but not dispositive. He’s a guy on a prove it deal who, before injury, was widely expected to be their starting FS.

1 points
2
1
BAMABADGER's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:45 am

Agree, the contract is very favorable to GB. Jimmy Ward signed a $14 MM - 2 year Texan contract, or he would remain the 49ers starting FS. 49ers will now mostly likely draft a safety in the first or second to replace Ward. If Moore was to be the starting FS, is was by default. Having lost Ward, safety is a huge need for the defensively minded 49ers. My concern is why would the non-cash strapped 49ers allow Moore to walk for such a cheap one year deal? Rather than sign a free agent safety, the 49ers continued to improve their DL through free agency. In a few months, we'll find out if Moore is more than a special team player, which is what he was last year. GPG!

1 points
1
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RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:08 am

Perhaps Moore wanted to leave since their DC left? Sometimes players want a change of scenery.

Every year there are players that leave and go to a new team and perform better. Think of Douglas and Campbell.

Moore maybe only a special teams player. But you never know until given an opportunity what may come from it.

1 points
1
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croatpackfan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:26 pm

Bamabadger, 49ers does not have 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick. They traded 1 & 2nd to Panthers and 3rd to Bears.

0 points
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BAMABADGER's picture

March 29, 2023 at 06:52 am

CPF, thanks. Interesting, another reason they shouldn't have let Moore go.

0 points
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dobber's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:56 pm

He got passed on the depth chart by 2nd year guy, Hufanga, who turned out to be an all-pro.

The fact that Moore couldn't unseat Tashaun Gipson at FS tells us he was viewed pretty much only as a SS by the Niners...but then, Gipson had one of his best seasons for the 9ers.

The Packers desperately need a smart, instinctual, true CF at FS. SS who can eat snaps are a dime-a-dozen in the league, but playmaking FS are not easy to find, and they elevate the entire secondary. I think the Packers draft a CB in the first two days of the draft, and move Douglas into that role, although he might be better-suited for SS.

1 points
2
1
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:19 pm

Passed up is not really accurate, since he couldn’t play due to injury and then was just starting a long road back off an injury worse for lag than an ACL. He was their expected FS starter before he got hurt. That’s about all that one can say other than that he looked to be getting some mojo back by the playoffs. Before that limited to spot duty and some ST snaps.

1 points
1
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bjkdad44's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:43 am

🙏🏻🤞🏻🙏🏻

-1 points
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1
Tundraboy's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:32 am

As usual, I have no idea who the Packers will pick, what direction they'll take, but to me certainly it should be best player.
My first gut reaction this morning when seeing the headline here on CHTV I felt a great sense of freedom, knowing that we can pretty much focus on getting the best football player regardless of position. And will be able to do that for the first two rounds in a position better than we've ever had before. But most of all we're not shackled by having to walk on eggshells to make sure we placate Rodgers.

I think the first pick should be a dominant OL but I'm open to anything as long as it's a solid football player and is going to immediately improve us.

5 points
5
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Swisch's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:41 am

If there's an elite edge available in the first round, either go for him or else take Washington at tight end.
After that, the priority is BPA at cornerback, offensive line, defensive line, and wide receiver.
Relax, it should all be fun and fruitful with several new additions through the draft.
We'll have the talent to contend for the playoffs at 9-8 or better.
***
Then, it's up to LaFleur to get at least a good measure of his illusion of complexity working at a high level of precision and enthusiasm; and for Barry to install a defense that frees his players to be more aggressive, without getting carried away (mixing things up for unpredictability).
It's up to all of our coaches to raise all of our players to their fullest potential, including the guys who regressed last season at safety, on the offensive line, and elsewhere.
The talent is there; it's a matter of getting the most out of it.
The better the coaching, the more exciting the Packers will be in 2023.

-1 points
3
4
T7Steve's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:22 pm

Can you imagine them snapping the ball with more than 2 seconds left on the play clock even? A fast-paced offense that scores TDs?

5 points
5
0
Swisch's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:59 pm

It may add months, if not years, of lifespan to Packers fans like me whose blood pressure mounted as the play clock wound down to the last millisecond (or beyond) play after play after play -- with seemingly no real improvement in results, in general, for all of the frustration of allowing the defense to get set to the predictability.
Our offensive linemen may greatly appreciate the defense not being able to tee off on them at an appointed time -- which could mean significant improvement in blocking, too.

2 points
3
1
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 05:01 pm

Yes, Steve. Yes, I can, and I’m here for all of it

3 points
3
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CheesePuff's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:46 am

Great article! Going forward, this time of year will be the most exciting for Packers fans - possibilities abound!

4 points
4
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LeotisHarris's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:47 am

Regardless of the parts the Packers add via the draft, I'm most interested in how this group of men becomes a team. Is our coaching staff able to foster a culture where guys buy-in to paly for each other? Given that run-of-the-mill goobers like all of us are day-to-day just walking around in the relative safety of our worlds, it's tough to predict who will survive training camp and a long, brutal NFL season. How well will the best guys we can put on the field play together?

Remember at the end of last TC when Coach LaFleur presented Larry McCarren with a ball in honor of McCarren's 50th TC? The Rock became emotional when he talked about how this group had put in the hard work and was on the cusp of greatness. That's what his learned eye saw coming out of TC. We all know how last season played out.

I am cautiously optimistic about this coming season. I hope this young team shows improvement weekly, has leaders emerge in each position group, and plays hard as a team. Too much to ask?

10 points
10
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:40 am

I'm right with you, if not a little more confident.

What I've seen from this Packers team over recent years is atrophy. It's a young mans game. We had a ton of old codgers extending their careers, unable to compete with today's talents. The legs go, the dings hurt more, and physical breakdowns compound.

The youth movement started 3 years ago with the Love pick. Dynamic young talents have been added around him, and I think we'll see more in exactly one month.

Probably a Cornerback. LOL

3 points
3
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The_Baloney_Stops_Here's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:40 pm

Best comment of the day right here. Well done.

3 points
3
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:57 pm

Much appreciate that, RTS, but, we’ve all seen it, and I think LeotisHarris was the one nailin’ it. We just got word recently that Love invited a group to California for private workouts together. If that doesn’t speak exactly to what he’s talking about. Leadership.

I find Jordan Love to have that wise beyond his years quality. That kind of leadership is infectious. It’s so not “too much to ask,” at all that they’re already on task there. That’s some impressive stuff we all can find encouraging.

Like yourself and Leotis, I’m happy as all get out to know this deal is close to a close, if it isn’t closed already.

I keep thinking back to how quickly Love got that ball out v. PHI last year, with complete confidence, and, it was as if we were watching a different team.

It’s just been a long time coming. Super exciting. Leaders are made through actions, and, we get to watch that happen too.

Aaron Jones is a leader for RBs
Kenny Clark, DL.
Elgton Jenkins, OL
Jaire Alexander, DBs
Rashan Gary, EDGE
De’Vondre Campbell, ILB
Keisean Nixon, STs
… and now, we’re watching Jordan Love become a leader. Others will establish themselves moving forward.

Great stuff to think about. This really is going to be fun. And, I wouldn’t put it past them to shock the world.

The speed on this team will be noticeable, and very much welcomed!

1 points
1
0
Razer's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:04 am

Nothing like a dose of reality to start the week. I read... lot of gaps, little CAP = big rebuild.

4 points
4
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Leatherhead's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:20 pm

I don't think we're rebuilding. We're replacing a 39 year old QB who has played very poorly in our last two elimination games.

Most of last year's team returns. The entire offensive line, Jones and Dillon, Watson and Doubs, Deguara. We're certainly not rebuilding on defense, where we have pretty much everybody back.

The ingredients are there. If the meal doesn't have a good taste, it's not because we didn't have what we needed to make it taste better.

1 points
1
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:26 pm

Ugh. Now I’m hungry.

Hello, pizza!

0 points
0
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:04 am

I fully understand the need for many picks to fortify our team. However, when one makes comments that the 2nd round talent is virtually the same as first round talent it just is not true. I think where many get confused is the Packers for the past 30-years (more or less without researching) has traditionally been drafting towards the end of round 1. In this instance, yes, the talent level is very comparable to 2nd rounders. By having a top #15, and/or possibly a #13 pick this is different than drafting at say #28. This is the year, the Packers should draft a top BPA when their time comes up. Frankly, the possibility that the very BPA available could very well be Bijan Robinson at RB who usually is considered in the top 3 - 5 players in this draft. Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether the Packers would draft someone like Bijan, or go with another player at OT, TE, WR, Edge, DL, etc. Going to be fun!!!

5 points
5
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:20 am

Will also share that while most GM's will say they are drafting BPA it rarely is true. Usually it is the BPA for an area of need. Then even in some of those cases it is the BPA at a certain position where they believe the player works best in their particular scheme. Think Josh Myers at Center over say Creed Humphrey, or a Landon Dickerson.

4 points
4
0
DoubleJ's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:13 am

Most drafts there is also more top end talent than this one. Picking at #15 is sort of being in no mans land for the players in this draft. You might get lucky and have a top player fall; more likely you are going to be reaching on someone who would be a late R1 or R2 in most drafts. On nfl.com for example there are only 2 players with a rating 7+ and one has a huge character concern. They only have 11 players rated at 6.5 or higher. That is way less than most drafts I have seen. Overall I would be better for the Packers to get both R2s instead of the #13. Now IMO a dream scenario would be swap picks 13 & 15, get 42, 43, and a conditional 2024. Now if someone like Christian Gonzalez or Tyree Wilson drops a bit you can move up pretty easily for him. Otherwise try dropping back for more bites at the apple.

5 points
5
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:19 am

This year seems short on consensus blue chip players. I’ve seen estimated of anywhere from 4 to 10 or so. After that I think there’s a cluster into round 2. A round is an arbitrary concept, driven not by talent but the number of teams. Having 2 bites at that second tier group is better than one. It depends how deep we see that group as being as well as if the draft kicks one of our top rated players down.

I don’t see Robinson getting to us. If he did, personally I’d see if some team will over pay to get him. That I think has to be a need driven analysis. He’s not making us much better this year and we need to remember that. If no one offers enough, then we take him if we agree with you on his true merit. How much is enough will be driven by our assessment of the player and our need.

2 points
3
1
Leatherhead's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:31 pm

Knock, if you look at any draft, I think you'll see that anybody you could have taken at say...27....would have a comparable play available at around 43

You liked Patrick Queen in 2020? You could have gotten Cole Kmet at 43.
In 2019, Jonathan Abrams was #27, and Elgton Jenkins was available at 43. In 2019, we drafted Savage at 21, and traded up to do it, but we could have had Deebo at #36. In 2018, Rashad Penny was 27, and guy like Goedert were still available at 43.

This might look like cherry picking, but that's only three examples out of hundreds...maybe thousands. You can just about always find just as good a player a half round later. Picking at 40? Trade back and take a guy at 56 who'll be just as good. Check for yourself.

I look at the Packers this year, and I know we can get guys at #31 who are just as good as the guy we could take at #15 .

1 points
1
0
BirdDogUni's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:28 pm

Which is why we may find it difficult to trade back. (I wouldn't trade up this year unless it was for a QB.)

*Maybe one of the few OTs if I was desperate.

It will be interesting to see what Gutey's strategy will be this year. Hoping he's all about getting weapons for Love and maybe a starting RT. Should be fun.

0 points
0
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T7Steve's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:12 am

"BPA"? DRMN is what we need. Dirty, rotten, mean and nasty! That's what we need. O-line, D-line, Edge, Tight End, Safety, whatever. I like the nice pretty uniforms. That's all we need in that department. Get me some ugly players. I'm tired of being the nice guys getting pushed around.

If I could tell you how to get these players, I'd be a good candidate for head coach. Wait.......... maybe that's where we need to get DRMN!

6 points
7
1
Tundraboy's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:01 pm

Yesss!

0 points
0
0
MooPack's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:27 am

1st round true Offense BPA:
QB - No
RB - Usually no, but Bijan Robinson is a special talent. BPA in entire draft on offense. With A. Jones probably on a one and maybe two year deal, and AJ Dillon in a contract year, I won't write him off. Otherwise, usually not.
WR - JSN and Quentin Johnson. That's it in the 1st for the Packers. Last year they didn't pull the trigger on a loaded WR year in the 1st. Didn't take Watson until just outside the 1st at #34, so doubtful they will this year with lesser talent. 2nd or later is my bet.

OT - Bakh is here for one year. Tom is a 4th round Center and "serviceable" LT (hate the term. It basically means if we have to). Nijim is a long trained UDFA LT. Walker is an untested 7th rounder. Caleb Jones? Likely few years away, if at all.
OG - All-Pro level Jenkins and average starter Runyan. That's about it. Newman? Please. Rhyan ?? Hanson should be gone.
OC - Myers is average. Tom should give at the very least a push. That's it.

I've never understood the overhyped homerism love for this line. They don't get enough push in short yardage. When faced with playoff level pass rush they tend to fold in key spots. Trust in Bakh's health is sketchy. If they want to give kid Love a fighting chance, they better upgrade this line.

Problem is this draft is top heavy by two. Paris Johnson and Broderick Jones. I'd take Jones in a heartbeat. Pete Ski is a Guard and can't see the value over the prior two. After that it's Darnell Wright and Anton Harrison. Can't see the Packers taking either unless the top two are gone and they trade to the very bottom of the 1st, and even then there are better BPAs.

TE - Biggest hole on the offense. As has been said, the cupboard is bare. If they want a TE, and they should, this is the year to grab one or more likely two. Darnell Washington is the the TE1, IMO. Mayer is overrated because of school with a national spotlight. Notre Dame still has an overhyped mystic about them. He's high floor, low ceiling. I don't see a playmaker worthy of a number 1. He will fall. Kincaid, Musgrave, LaPorta, Kraft are all pass catchers with some or little blocking talent. If they want a bigger pass catcher, take WR Jonathan Mingo later. I'd take the TE who is both. Darnell Washington is going to move people, it's not even close, and give a big target that has as good or better athleticism than most of them. Georgia's Bowers is the reason he didn't get more passes, but that doesn't mean DW is a slouch. He looks very instinctive for open spaces and is a load to bring down. He won't be at the Packers pick mid 2nd round.

So on offense, I'd take Broderick Jones, Darnell Washington, or Bijan Robinson as Packers BPAs. Jones and Robinson could be at the Packers #15. Better chance at #13 (Jets). I think the Jets will take Jones at #13 if they don't give it to Packers as part of Rodgers trade. May be why they are holding out. They need OT in a bad way. Robinson could be gone by Bears pick at #9 or Philly at #10. I could even see NE at #14. Washington would be the lone BPA pick that would most likely be there and the Packers could probably trade down a bit and still get him and add another pick.

4 points
4
0
RCPackerFan's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:53 am

"Didn't take Watson until just outside the 1st at #34, so doubtful they will this year with lesser talent. 2nd or later is my bet."

They did try to trade back into the first for him though. They just couldn't get the trade deal to work out.

3 points
3
0
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:14 am

A pretty sound approach, though we differ on OT being that urgent of a need. I’m actually fairly relaxed. I think Walker has potential and Jones impressed me in camp considerably, however, I see them as depth this year anyway. I ate a lot of crow thanks to Tom’s performances. He earned the right to replace Bakh when the time comes if he continues on the same path. They are very similar physically at the initial their careers.

I’d be fine with Nijman on the blind side too, but he has much more viable RT physical profile long term and is a big plus in the run game statistically. An off season of work should get his footwork on the right settled. A year of Bakh/Tom/Jones depth at LT and Nijman/Walker and maybe Tenuta (I know little but they kept him) is fine and I think Jenkins another year on from his injury provides extra emergency depth. I think that’s fine for 2024 if Bakh isn’t back then as well.

Where I do have concerns is at G and C. Both Jenkins and Tom could possibly move to C this year, and Tom still be first up if Bakh went down. I actually like both at C over Myers, particularly Jenkins. However, that leaves us with one G I think is a starter, Runyon. Newman could still get it, but one can’t rely on that or on Rhyan getting his head right.

I’ve no faith in Hanson as a G or C. Even with Tom available potentially this year, G isn’t his best fit: I’d play him at C first as I think he should start. I’m not convinced about Myers as a G. I don’t know what he’s showed that suggests that would work well. So my view is that we need to add a G and another G/C or C to add competition for middle line depth. I see at least one being drafted and maybe a vet in the summer as well as UDFAs.

So for me no T is needed early. It’s a poor T class anyway (though we may pick up a college T for G/C later). I think need and likely-to-be-available talent supports that. Just thought I’d lay out why.

2 points
3
1
T7Steve's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:54 pm

I was posting the same thing about Myers and someone here berated me and thought with last season being his first full season, that he still has allot of growth left in the tank. I think if he gets some real competition, it might push him to the next level and help justify his draft. Have to get more depth. Could Hansen and Newman move to the drink venders' room?

0 points
1
1
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:28 pm

Both Newman and Myers could click and turn out to be very good. So could Rhyan and even Hanson. That’s too many inside players with questions to trust though. If one does, then great: stiffer competition is better. Right now I’d not guarantee any of them though and that is how you have to look at this from a roster perspective and we need at least 2 good ones.

1 points
1
0
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:23 pm

This kind of makes me crack up. All of a sudden, OG O'Cyrus Torrence has appeal.

Can you imagine GB gets NYJ #13 and Gutekunst picks OT Broderick Jones at 13, OG O'Cyrus Torrence at 15?

I might laugh... and, I'm not one to pine for an OG R1 in any Packers draft... but... That's saying something that I might laugh instead of cry.

1 points
1
0
PackEyedOptimist's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:02 pm

A month or two ago I commented that O'Cyrus Torrence at 15 and Dawand Jones at 45 would make Packer fans apoplectic, but be an interesting change.
:-D
That beef would make Acme Packing proud.

2 points
2
0
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:08 pm

No doubt!!!

Seriously, I’ve never been big on drafting OG R1, but this one? Yeah. Together with Broderick Jones? That right there would be a statement, especially if we’re trading away a LT and an OG to the Jets so they can protect Rodgers, knowing the system.

I couldn’t argue against the idea, PEO.

Btw, I’d like to see a return to drafting Tackles to play Tackle, and Guards to play Guard. I get versatility, but, higher proficiency for the given position tends to get lost.

0 points
0
0
Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:31 pm

I’m not signing up for that first round.

2 points
2
0
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 06:30 pm

Hahahaha.

Am I seriously the only one here who thinks Bakhtiari and a starting OG are going to be Jets?

Personally, I’d welcome that opportunity to restart a couple of clocks at the positions, and save some more cap.

Some may think NYJ will just draft one OL with the 13, and problem solved.

1. A rookie won’t know the scheme.
2. Aaron trusting a rookie?
3. The Jets OL has multiple holes.

New era. Trading a couple starters to NYJ for top picks, and going into that new era with a pair of young maulers on their 1st contracts with option years is not the worst idea.

Jordan Love, Broderick Jones & O’Cyril Torrence could be together for more than a decade. Blue chip players, all 3.

0 points
0
0
Leatherhead's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:49 pm

"""Am I seriously the only one here who thinks Bakhtiari and a starting OG are going to be Jets?"""

Maybe. I'd be willing to bet a six pack of Pabst that we're not going to trade away two starting OL for draft picks. Especially with a first year starter....I don't see how that would make us better on offense this season. All we're doing is blowing two more holes in the roster that we have to fill with rookies.

We're going to end up trading Rodgers to the Jets for 42 and 43. Maybe some future 2024 pick. This is a win. We're going to start to recover financially, and that's a win. We're going to have a better QB on the field, and that's a win.

There's no need to trade away proven players for draft picks. On offense, particularly, we could be in a position to put 21 pretty good football players in uniform, and about half of them are average to above average at their spot.

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 08:06 pm

Pabst works. I like Pabst.

0 points
0
0
Bear's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:50 pm

Coldworld, I always respect your comments but I don’t think you have to eat any crow regarding Tom. I like Tom but when watching replays of the game a studying him I don’t like how he keeps getting pushed back into the quarterback pocket. He does a good job of mirroring his man but lacks the strength to being pushed back. This was one of his criticisms in scouting reports and it showed up in his play.

2 points
2
0
Bear's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:51 pm

Coldworld, I always respect your comments but I don’t think you have to eat any crow regarding Tom. I like Tom but when watching replays of the game and studying him I don’t like how he keeps getting pushed back into the quarterback pocket. He does a good job of mirroring his man but lacks the strength to being pushed back. This was one of his criticisms in scouting reports and it showed up in his play.

2 points
2
0
lou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 10:29 am

A solid review of the current state of the team, dead honest to the point that some readers believe it was negative. That kind of realistic approach needs to be taken to make the best draft and free agent decisions to put the best team on the field in 2023. Football is still blocking & tackling, you must be able to run the ball and stop the run to get to and win in the playoffs. That noted even with 6 #1 picks Clark/Wyatt/Walker/Campell/Alexander/Stokes the team could not stop the run so that is the area I would focus on first knowing that Zimmer or Vangio are not coming to the rescue. The only area without a #1 pick on the defense is at safety but if they can stop the run and Gary returns early to bolster the pass rush the talent level at the safety spots need not be top of the line. The Defense would be my first priority.

2 points
2
0
T7Steve's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:18 am

I thought Savage was a #1? My memory again?

1 points
1
0
lou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:14 pm

I missed him not only was he a 1 but traded up for, it would be great to get him in the Rodgers deal.

1 points
1
0
PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:42 pm

Savage was a first round pick at safety. Campbell was a fourth round pick. Using Alexander, Stokes, and Savage as examples of early picks, but not having an improved run defense is a bit disingenuous due to their roles/positions. The run defense definitely needs another "upgrade," the one from last year didn't do it. Its not a sexy pick, but I believe you win the game in the trenches, and the DL needs help. Hopefully the development year for Wyatt will go a long way.

3 points
4
1
PackerGravy's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:01 am

I concur: After seeing how the Packers have approached, free agency, basically resigning and fortifying special teams in depth only. My view is they will look for immediate starters through the draft and then fill in with a few low budget free agents afterwards it will be interesting to see what the Packers get for Rogers.

1 points
1
0
golfpacker1's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:08 am

As far as the first player we pick, at what position he plays, and where we pick him, whether its @ #15 or #25 or #33, the real question should be what player at which position will improve Green Bay the most. That should be the priority. If drafting a TE (which I think is biggest need) will improve us the most then that is what we should do. If its safety, then that is what we should draft. ETC.

The theory of drafting the best player available is flawed and should be amended to draft the best player available at the position you need to improve the most. Players drafted in the first 3 rounds should be expected to start, not sit. And when a position group that your team really needs a difference maker at is weak, it becomes an earlier priority. Or if a team knows they have to move on from a player the next year because of too high of salary or injury history then that should move up on the list. To me it seems like basic stuff.

The problem we all know and this article exposes is Green Bay has a ton of holes and not enough draft picks or money to fill all of them. And we have players we need to move on from soon. I agree that after the top 10-12 picks there is, especially in this year's draft, there are a lot of good players to pick all the way to probably 125-130. Having extra picks in this area will potentially fill a lot of our needs and even though they wouldn't be the best players at their positions, according to the EXPERTS, they could be better than what we have. There is no one thing will fix our team immediately, especially with our money woes, but the first viable option is to try to trade back for more picks.

Mainly because if say TE or Safety or Edge for example is our biggest need, that will improve our team the most right away, then we can fill that position later in the first round and by adding more picks from some team who has to have a certain player by moving up and giving up extra picks. The TE and Edge positions are so strong we can fill those holes in rounds 1,2 and 3 and still get really good players.

We are screwed in FA so the only other option we have is getting three inexpensive, good players back from the Jets. Hopefully before the draft so we can take those players availability into consideration. The big picture isn't pretty but it's also not hopeless.

3 points
3
0
PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:22 pm

When you say, "Players drafted in the first 3 rounds should be expected to start, not sit," do you mean that as a blanket expectation for every pick in those rounds? If so, I disagree with this take. Some players need the time for development. First round picks Rashan Gary and Aaron Rodgers are evidence of that. Gary was a raw athlete, Rodgers had to learn a new throwing motion. If they had both been thrown into the fire early, there's a decent chance one, or both, would've been busts. The expectation to be an immediate starter, without time to develop (for those that need it, not all draft picks are the same), can lead to players busting out faster than if given that extra time.

That's all well and good if the roster is in decent shape. The situation is a bit more dire this season for the Packers, as there are glaring holes all over the roster. While I think it'd be great to give them time to develop, I don't think this crop of rookies will have that luxury.

3 points
3
0
golfpacker1's picture

March 27, 2023 at 09:51 pm

Hey PackAttack, I agree some positions do require sitting. Qb for sure. On this team next year 2 TEs that we draft will start and play a lot. On this team If and when we draft a Safety in the 2nd round I would expect him to be starting. If we draft an Edge early and Gary is able to play right away, I would expect that edge to be rotating in and playing a lot too. Worst case if Gary isn't ready that new Edge is going to be playing a ton and probably starting. Other positions like OL, DL ,CB ,WR I would not expect them to be starting unless maybe the WR is that good, since we are not full strength there yet. But we can go a long way towards changing some position groups from weakness to strengths with a good draft.

Funny you mention Gary. A good freind and Michigan fan told me if we drafted Gary we would be sorry. He said he never turned into the player Michigan thought he would be. He didn't play hard. He didn't seem to care. So I was bummed when we drafted him. Turns out Gary just needed to be motivated and is a great player. Hope he gets strong fast.

I am optomistic that Packers will be better than EXPERTS think they will be. If we play this draft right by being patient and not wasting picks by trading up. We need to add some early round picks by trading back. This is a strong draft in a bunch of the positions we need. It sucks having no money to chase some hole filling free agents. Anybody we sign is going to have to be cheap and good enough to be a contributor. 3 options in that vein could come from the Jets in the trade. Jeremy Ruckert-TE, Ashtyn Davis-S, and Denzel Mims-WR are all players that we should demand because they could all easily make our 53 man roster and collectively make about $3 million. Practically the cost of 4th round picks.

Not knowing for sure if we are trading Bahktiari or anyone else in the Rodgers deal doesn't tell us if we have anymore cap room. A player that could be traded and would save the cap $8 million is Savage. It seems like he is not in our future plans and even though we have a need at safety we should move him if we can. My scenario to trade him is move him to Denver (who also has a need at safety) for Albert Okwuegbunam-TE, who is on their players we don't love list. He has a lot of talent and potential and only makes $900,000. Both teams win in this deal. But you have to ask to see if they are interested.

0 points
0
0
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:20 am

I'm thinking we're taking all of the NYJ first 3 picks. 13. 42. 43.

Anyone saying we're not may not be considering two starting OL that will walk East with AR. We're not going to give all of that away, and the Jets will be without cap room to add FA in 2024, thereby needing as many of their 2024 draft picks as they're able to retain.

Ditching those high draft picks also gives the Jets more room to re-sign Quinen Williams, which they've yet to do. Blockbuster deal will likely be announced on Draft Day 1 for the biggest media splash.

Barring Quentin Johnston falling into our laps, my picks for the Packers fall like this:
13. OT Broderick Jones
15. DT Calijah Kancey
42. DE Keion White
43. OT Dewand Jones
45. TE Darnell Washington
78. S Julius Brents
116. WR AT Perry
149. DE Moro Ojomo
170. TE Luke Schoonmaker
232. QB Stetson Bennett
235. TE Mason Fairchild
242. CB Garrett Williams
256. RB Kenny McIntosh

* No Kickers. LOL.

-3 points
3
6
Untylu1968's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:46 pm

#256 Jake Witt, Northern Michigan University!!!

1 points
1
0
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:27 pm

GG,
If this draft happened even though I prefer go offense early I'd be ecstatic about this draft.

0 points
0
0
splitpea1's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:43 am

Sounds like a good argument for doing some trading down in the early rounds. The problem is that this is the opposite of what Gute generally likes to do, although he did trade down in the first round with the Saints once. He has probably keyed in on a few players that he really likes, but hopefully he can be patient and wait for them to come to him and avoid trading up. You're always looking for quality prospects, but in this case, gaining a little extra quantity isn't a bad idea.

5 points
5
0
BirdDogUni's picture

March 27, 2023 at 11:53 am

Gutey could do worse...

13: Quentin Johnston WR TCU - A true #1 WR for Jordan Love.
15: Myles Murphy OLB Clemson
42: Darnell Washington TE Georgia - A true #1 TE for Jordan Love.
45: Mazi Smith DT Michigan - Need depth
78: Jordan Battle S Alabama
116: Roschon Johnson RB Texas
149: Ronnie Hickman S Ohio State
170: Josh Whyle TE Cincinnati
232: Dee Winters LB TCU
235: T. J. Bass OT Oregon
242: John Ojukwu OT Boise State
256: Tavius Robinson OLB Missippi

5 points
5
0
PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:50 pm

I like these picks. The first five help cover the biggest holes I see on the roster. Except OL depth, but the Packers have something like 11-12 on the roster already, and find gems later in the draft anyways. Maybe a little earlier than the seventh round tho. I hope Washington lasts that far into the second.

3 points
3
0
BAMABADGER's picture

March 27, 2023 at 12:53 pm

The steal of the draft would be Washington at #42. He will most likely goes in the top #30. Whyle would be a great value at #170.

1 points
2
1
DoubleJ's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:40 pm

There is no way they Packers are going to get the #13 and #42 for Rodgers.

2 points
3
1
stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:38 pm

Thats why it isn't done yet.
Can you say #42 only.
I wouldn't trade him for that.
In fact I wouldn't trade him.

0 points
2
2
DoubleJ's picture

March 28, 2023 at 10:57 am

Glad you aren't the GM then. A player is only worth what you can get for him. Would you rather have Rodgers for one more year and get seriously screwed on the salary cap for the next 3 years or get pick 42 and screw over another team for his salary? I'd take pick 42 every day of the year in that scenario. However, perhaps Gute can get 42 and a conditional 2024 pick. Or get 42 & 43 this year. There are multiple ways this can go but I assure you he isn't getting 13 & 42 this year.

0 points
0
0
BirdDogUni's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:45 pm

You're right, it'll probably be #13, #42, and #43... ; )

0 points
2
2
stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:10 pm

Gutey kept calling him.
I Wouldn't return the calls either.
The major question?
Playing or retiring.
Harassment!
And the latest is they won't give them a #1.
So the smart thing is to play him.

0 points
1
1
stockholder's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:12 pm

I can get a second in a trade down
and still get Branch. PFF sim.

0 points
1
1
Since'61's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:04 pm

I'm not a draftnik so I cannot name specific players for the Packers to select but here is how I think that the Packers should approach this year's draft.

My basic assumption is that given the number of holes the Packers need to fill they need more picks preferably in the first 3-4 rounds. I'm making the assumption that the Jets will not give up their #13 pick for Rodgers. In that case I believe that the Packers should trade down from #15 for either a higher pick in round 1 and/or a 2nd or 3rd rounder or a high 2nd rounder and 3rd rounder.

If the Packers do acquire the #13 pick from the Jets they should exercise that selection and still trade down out of the #15 pick for 2 more picks later on Day 1 and Day 2.

Regardless of how the trades actually play out the Packers needs are Edge, Safety, TE, OL and WR. Therefore the Packers 1st selection whenever it happens should be the best available Edge rusher. Of the 5 primary needs Edge is the highest value position and since this is allegedly a strong class for Edge the Packers should select an Edge with their first pick. Second pick should be utilized to select the best DB/Safety available. The Packers should wait until their 3rd pick to take a TE. Fourth pick should be either a WR or OL depending on BPA at those positions and the 5th pick should be either a WR or OL depending on what was done with their 4th pick.

If the Packers can acquire the Jets 2 second picks for Rodgers plus trade down from #15 for a high 1st rounder and a #2 pick they could end up with at least 6 and possibly 7 picks from the top 96 players available. That would be a significant haul of top players for the Packers and while they may not all contribute immediately in 2023 they should all be ready to contribute significantly in 2024.

To review my recommendation for the Packers first 5 BPA picks based on their needs are:

1. Edge
2. Safety
3. TE
4. OL
5.WR

Since I don't know who those players could/should be I'll leave for the CHTV draftniks to fill in the names. Remember it is feasible that all of these 5 selections could come from the late 1st and almost anyplace in the second round depending on how the trades play out. The 3rd round has not been kind to Gute so maybe he trades out any 3s the Packers have for a bunch of 4th rounders and we go from there. But I'll stop with our first 5 selections and let the draftniks and professionals figure out the rest.

Bottom line Gute needs to be at his best to fill the holes with players that can evolve into the core of the team by 2025. Thanks, Since '61

6 points
6
0
PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:13 pm

I like your top five positions of importance, and would add DL to the mix. Possibly more important than OL, but only because they have so many OL on the roster, and I hope a couple develop. Run defense, and inside pass rush, is a perennial problem.

3 points
4
1
Since'61's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:04 pm

PackAttack I appreciate your feedback. I considered DL among the top also. However, it does not appear to be a strength in this year's draft. Basically I tried to match the Packers critical needs with the alleged strength of the draft and the value of those positions. EEdge is the highest value position after QB and LT so I went with Edge first. Safety next because the Packers don't have a starting Safety on the roster at this time. TE next because they also do not have a starting TE on the roster.

I go either 4th or 5th with WR and OL but I would have no problem if they could add a solid DL with either of their picks.

The Packers have numerous needs to fill and they need to add quality players to the roster. IMO the first four rounds provide the best opportunities to add quality players. If we can get 5 or may be 6 in our first four rounds it will be an excellent draft. After the first 4 rounds the odds become longer and longer in the NFLs annual version of a crap shoot. Thanks, Since '61

3 points
3
0
PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:21 pm

Absolutely agree with your reasoning. I'm hoping one of the top DL fall to wherever the Packers are picking in round one, but not to reach if their top options are gone. Too many other positions could use those picks instead.

1 points
1
0
MooPack's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:10 pm

Drafting defense in the 1st round has to take into account the Barry factor. Do the Packers take yet another defensive player that may or may not have any real useful effect on this defense? Does Gute spend high again on that side of the ball knowing the scheme isn't utilizing the talent he is gathering to maximum effect? Does he know this?

1st round true Defense BPA:
DL - I'm a bit higher on our DL talent than some, maybe most. I think Clark, Salton, and Wyatt can be very effective if used to their strengths on more downs together . Stop the one DL lines. They need another rotational piece. In the first, Jalen Carter has fallen some, but not enough to make it to the Packers. Bryan Bresee has fallen and probably was overrated anyway. If he can get past injury history, some family issues, and be more consistent, maybe. The 4 and 5 tech DE's are not as good and will go later. I'm thinking the Packers pass on DL in the 1st.

Edge/OLB - The need is definitely there. When is Gary back 100%? Lot's of body types to sort through. Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson will be gone. Myles Murphy has dropped some and Lukas VanNess has risen. Murphy is plug-and-play. VanNess will take a little longer to develop. I think Isaiah Foskey, Will McDonald, and Felix Anudike-Uzomah are higher options, but the Packers could trade back in the 1st/ top of 2nd and get them. Bringing in McDonald for a visit may indicate they are looking for a quicker rusher than in the recent past, or could be a smoke screen. Like I said, lots of variable body types will be available.

ILB - Lowest need on defense. Campbell and Walker are the set starters. Jack Campbell out of Iowa is an intriguing big LB with very good instincts, size and athleticism, but probably 2nd round. Realistically, later depth may be added.

CB - This is a very good draft for CBs, however not a great need. When will Stokes be back 100%? One CB I think the Packers would be interested in as a hybrid S/CB would be Kylee Ringo from Georgia. Big size/speed guy that could play anywhere in any scheme, but not as much a twitchy top end CB. Probably late 1st round.

S - Biggest need on D, but not a very good draft class. Brian Branch is probably the best and only possible 1st rounder, but with that iffy top end speed he moved himself to the end of the 1st round. Maybe the Packers will look for a more athletic CB to move to Safety.

So on Defense, similar to offense, I see a few guys that could be viable at the Packers #15 (or #13 Jets). Myles Murphy (if he luckily drops), VanNess (who will take some time to develop more), Bresee (If the Packers are confident he can overcome some of his adversity), and maybe Ringo (if he can play a hybrid role). A lot of ifs, but the greatest to me is the Barry factor.

5 points
5
0
greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 05:26 pm

Brilliant share, Moo. I agree with most all of it.

Sucks that we’re about as clear in what Barry is running on D as we are in what LaFleur will run on O.

Whoosh.

I think the needs are equally massive, O and D. I’m not as concerned with trading down for value, because everyone knows we’re in “no man’s land,” and I doubt we’ll get takers.

Just take our best picks possible off the board, 13 & 15. Seems our trading sweet spot might be the 42 or 43, should we get them.

Pass rush is of big supply, which should allow for us to pick O at the top of our draft. If Bak is traded, we’ll need the best LT we can get. Does that mean it has to happen R1? OT is as deep this draft as it was last draft.

Broderick & Bijan?

Needs are so even that I’d also consider taking the best 2 EDGE at 13 & 15 and not look back. Even if Gary returns healthy, we need a better rotation of players there.

Foskey & Felix?

Hell, how does this sound?

Quentin & Nolan?

I’d be happy taking the 1st set, or the last set, and trading up to secure one from that FF set.

Imagine that…

1 points
1
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golfpacker1's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:14 pm

I love it Bird. We really fill holes with great players in your draft. We could argue if trading back would be good to gain a couple more picks but that would be greedy. I think Washington could be all pro if he stays healthy. His catching ability is so underrated because he was underused. You really can't blame Georgia when he blocks like he does.
Mazi is my first DT every mock I do but I would not be disappointed if it was Keannu Benton.
Jordan Battle is the ideal safety for Green Bay and he will be better than Amos.
Roschon is usually 3rd choice of RB because I like Tyjae Spears & Eric Gray more. Don't sleep on Evan Hull late.
Ronnie Hickman is underrated and is a Battle clone. Late guys Daniel Scott & Jason Taylor.
I have liked Josh Whyle for 2 years and he is the ultimate sleeper. A TD machine again with poor QB play .
I didn't know much about Tavius until you mentioned him. He could be special in 2 years.

The trouble with my mocks is I don't ever have enough picks for all the players I like. But if we scored most of your picks we could be good again in 2024.

Green I hope you are right about the picks we get back from the Jets. That would be ideal but I fear the longer it takes to get done, the more chance it blows up somehow. At worst I would like to see us get both 2023 2nd rounders, 2024 2nd that could be a 1st if they get to AFC championship game. Also 3 players back from the Jets, Jeremy Ruckert-TE, Denzel Mims-WR and either Ashtyn Davis-S or a Edge. We could move forward with that and still be way better for less money. Not as much as last years deal but still a good haul.

1 points
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BirdDogUni's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:38 pm

I think it will be awful tough to trade back this year. I think Tavius will go in the 3rd or 4th round. We're of the same mind about many of the players you mentioned. I use Mocks to learn more about the players, but Gutey finds a way to find players I never heard of. Not as bad as TT did, but close.

Should be exciting this year.

2 points
2
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 07:48 pm

Do yourself a favor and pour over Top 100 Players listings. He fishes there. I mean, a good chunk of his selections I’ve found to be residents.

Athlon, Ourlads, The Sporting News, and to a lesser extent, PFF.

0 points
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Packerpasty's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:19 pm

Defense first, wr/te next...where and if Gutes takes a QB will tell a lot of what they really think of Love...cant see them taking one in first two rounds but if it were to happen...oh oh....

3 points
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PackAttack4155's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:08 pm

I think it would tell a lot of what they think of the draft pick, not necessarily Love. The Packers drafted two QBs, a second and seventh, the first year Rodgers started. That seventh rounder Matt Flynn turned into a solid backup. With all of the roster needs I hope they don't reach so early, or so often, but if someone they like falls, I wouldn't be surprised. Maybe in the dreaded third round?

2 points
2
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:36 pm

TT took Brohm in the 2nd and Flynn in the 7th. I’m not sure that that said he didn’t believe in Rodgers as much as he didn’t like not hedging his bets. We may have to go without that luxury as we have far more holes to fill and no cap. I don’t think a QB pick will tell us anything early or late.

4 points
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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

March 28, 2023 at 12:14 am

Pasty,
The eventual trade is all telling. Depending on the # of draft choices should a BPA QB fall & be available I could see them even with all their needs take such a QB. I would be supportive of it should it happen. Another good solid QB is needed without question.

0 points
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Dragon5's picture

March 27, 2023 at 01:53 pm

No one shows better on tape than EDGE Felix Aniduke-Uzomah (aka King Felix). He is my draft crush / must have. Trade down twice into the 20s and get him.

Avoid DT Mazi Smith & WR Kayshon Boutte--most likely to have injury riddled careers

6 points
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greengold's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:49 pm

I'm a big Felix fan too, Dragon5, and wouldn't blink if Gutekunst saw fit to take him at 15.

1 points
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Dragon5's picture

March 27, 2023 at 04:49 pm

Performance over time could certainly validate #15, but Gute gets paid the big bucks to execute not just in drafting the right player, but also utilizing draft capital wisely--a major gremlin he too frequently exhibits when there's heat in the draft kitchen.

1 points
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Fubared's picture

March 27, 2023 at 02:25 pm

My two cents regarding BPA. Only teams like KC and a few others loaded at all positions can take BPA. The Packers have so many needs again this year, they need to focus on first need, second need and so on and fill those positions.
If they of course need a TE you obviously try to take the best tight end available for you when you pick but to take a receiver and pass on a tight end is el stupido. BPA is fine when you dont need much of anything. You have that luxury. The Packers never do

0 points
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Hematite's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:06 pm

" and drafting an OL in the first round never hurts you "
May I remind you of Tony Mandarich!

5 points
5
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Untylu1968's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:14 pm

Here's a 7th round flyer for ya. Jake Witt, a D2 physical freak! Future right tackle. Plus he's a yooper, so you can't go wrong..

1 points
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Coldworld's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:40 pm

He had a 44 yard reception I think. Maybe as that extra OL/blocking TE?

0 points
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golfpacker1's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:16 pm

Fubared I couldn't agree more. Best player available is for about 10% of the league and we are not in the 10%.
Now if we can get the Rodgers trade done without getting hosed, and gain a few more early picks by trading back, we could be decent in a couple of years. This draft is going to be the most important one for Green Bay in quite a while. Fixing the TE room would go along way to starting the reload/rebuild. That and fixing our cap problems. Time to start getting younger and better.

1 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

March 27, 2023 at 03:49 pm

A most sober and realistic look at the GBP this upcoming season. Perhaps a cc. can be sent to Mark Murphy. The great irony - special teams may be the most solid portion of the team. Due to the many questionable or deficient positions - everywhere - I expect that Gutekunst will strive to possess as many draft choices as possible - for this year and next. So trade downs may be the theme. If so, BPA makes absolute sense.

3 points
3
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ko40489's picture

March 28, 2023 at 06:13 am

How does a team get to the point where "there are holes all over the place?" Seems to me that that falls squarely on the GM--lack of planning, poor draft picks, not using free agency properly. Is there any reason to think that that's going to change? Sad to see an iconic franchise trending downward.

0 points
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