The Lass Word: Pack Was Right on Jacobs

Letting Aaron Jones walk was a risk.

It took me a while to come around.  As late as several weeks into the 2024 season I was still not convinced the Green Bay Packers  made the right decision when they let Aaron Jones walk, and chose instead to sign free agent running back Josh Jacobs.  After all, Jones was the corner stone of the Packers’ great finish to the previous season, and I was not impressed by Jacobs’ 2023 campaign.  When Green Bay played the Raiders last year, I actually felt Jacobs was outperformed by AJ Dillon, who rushed for more yards in that game.  When Jones was immediately gobbled up by the rival Vikings, my angst grew even stronger. 

Fortunately, Brian Gutekunst is much, much smarter than I am.  The Packers’ General Manager knew that Jacobs was working his way back from injuries last year, and he had the vision to see what the former Alabama star’s punishing style of running could do for the franchise.  Jones has gone on to have a fine year in Minnesota.  Jacobs has transformed his team.  Anyone who is paying close attention can’t miss the fact that, largely because of the example set by Jacobs, other backs are running harder, linemen are blocking harder, defensive players are tackling harder.  For a team that has oft been accused of being too soft, the Packers have bullied their last few opponents.  They are playing with anger and aggression.  They are playing like Josh Jacobs.  Exactly what you want at this point of the season. 

Now, fifteen games into the current season, it is interesting to compare the productivity of Jones and Jacobs.  Stats don’t tell the whole story, but they give you a glimpse of how this transition of ball carriers has worked out for both sides.  Generally speaking, Jacobs has been slightly better rushing, while Jones has a slight edge as a receiver.  Jacobs currently ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, with 13 touchdowns.  Jones is eleventh, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt, with five scores.  It should be pointed out that Jacobs has 45 more carries than Jones. 

In the passing game, Jones has 42 receptions for 348 yards and two touchdowns.  Jacobs has 35 grabs for 340 yards and one score.  Jones has had nine more targets.   

Jones has fumbled the ball five times, an issue that carried over from his Green Bay days.  Jacobs has fumbled three times. 

Which player will have the bigger day when the Packers play the Vikings this weekend?  The answer could well be, neither of them.  It is intriguing to note that these two teams are among the league’s best at stopping the run.  The Vikings rank second in rushing yards allowed, exactly one yard behind first place Baltimore.  The Packers’ defense ranks sixth against the run.  If those stats hold true in the game, it means neither team will have much success on the ground, and the game will likely be determined by the passing of the quarterbacks. 

At first glance, Minnesota’s Sam Darnold seems to have a significant edge in that department.  He ranks seventh in the NFL in passing yards.  He has a completion rate of 67 percent, with 32 touchdowns.  Jordan Love is nineteenth in passing yards, with a completion rate of 62 percent, and 24 scores.  But some qualification is necessary.  Love missed two and a half games because of injury while Darnold has played all fifteen.  And while the Packers’ have a large stable of good, young receivers, the Vikings’ triumvirate of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and tight end TJ Hockenson may be among the best in the league.  The offensive lines are comparable, although the Vikings lost their star left tackle Christian Darrisaw for the season, while Green Bay has been amazingly healthy across the front this campaign. 

Jones had the better of Jacobs when these two teams met earlier this season, outrushing Jacobs 93 yards to 51.  That was mainly due to Minnesota getting out to an early 28 to 0 lead, forcing the Packers to abandon the running game.  Jacobs had just nine carries.  Jones had 22.  Jeff Hafley’s defense is playing much better now than it was back in week four, particularly against the run. 

Both teams are safely into the playoffs, but both have incentive to play hard.  The Vikings are in the hunt for the NFC number one seed, while the Packers can finish as high as fifth, or as low as seventh in the post season pecking order. 

Regardless of who wins Sunday, I am now convinced Green Bay made the right call in jettisoning Jones and bringing in Jacobs.  Not only does he bring talent to the table, he brings an attitude.  Jones was a nice guy.  Jacobs is a beast.  Jones ran around you, Jacobs wears you down.  The players in the locker room all liked Aaron Jones.  

They all want to be Josh Jacobs. 

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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Comments (23)

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Gman1976's picture

December 26, 2024 at 03:27 pm

Great line to end your article.

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GregC's picture

December 26, 2024 at 04:13 pm

I liked swapping out Jones for Jacobs because Jacobs is younger and has been more durable. I also like the tone that is set by a good power running RB. Jones led the Packers' hot streak at the end of last season, but let's not forget that his lack of availability was the main reason they almost missed the playoffs. The Vikings have run him hard this year and have been very lucky that he hasn't missed much time with injuries.

The stat comparison for this season is very interesting and has become quite lopsided in favor of Jacobs. Jacobs has 170 more rushing yards than Jones, while Jones has only 8 more receiving yards than Jacobs. The difference between TDs (13 to 5) is massive. The fact that Jacobs has 45 more carries than Jones is a plus for Jacobs, not a minus. I will gladly take all those extra carries in exchange for 1/10 less yard per carry.

I couldn't agree more on the effect that Jones has had on the rest of the team. They were all fired up when he tossed that Saints DB aside with a stiff-arm and almost scored. When Lewis and Brooks came into the game, they were breaking tackles just like Jacobs. It was fun to watch.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

December 27, 2024 at 03:50 pm

You said Jones but meant Jacobs. I've made that mistake.

Here's to him continuing to have a GREAT season 🍻

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Leatherhead's picture

December 26, 2024 at 04:54 pm

I kind of went by Ted Thompson's FA philosophy: You have to be careful, it's easy to make a big mistake, and the guy you get might not be any better than the guy you let go. His emphasis was on resigning his own FAs, not somebody else's. Of course, he still got guys like Woodson and Pickett, but he really didn't make any huge, costly mistakes.

Gutekunst is a protege of Thompson, but this is a point of difference between them. Gutekunst is more active in FA, and he hasn't made a big mistake...yet...and he's had a number of good moves to his credit. Amos, ZSmith, PSmith, McKinney, Willis, and Jacobs.

Some people thought the Jones for Jacobs move was a sideways move, even though Jacobs is several years younger. And Jones has had a fine year in Minnesota. But Jacobs is going to be playing in this league when Jones isn't anymore.

I think he's the best RB we've had since Ahman Green, but it's only been one year. And by the time his contract is up....he'll be replaced.

xXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Tangentially, it's not just Jacobs. You look at Wilson and Brooks and even Lloyd and this is a real good group. Green had Davenport and Fisher behind him, and they all averaged over 5.0 yards/carry in 2003, but if I had to choose, I'd rather have the guys we have now. For one, they don't cough it up as much. About 450 touches this year with only 3 fumbles....all by Jacobs. 2200 yards and 18 TDs against 3 fumbles....in 15 games. That's kind of impressive, IMO. An average game, our RBs give us about 150 yards of offense, and a TD, and have a fumble once every 5 games. I'll take that anytime.

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Oppy's picture

December 26, 2024 at 05:48 pm

To be fair, mileage is the concern with Jacobs and what probably levels the playing field between Jones and Jacobs when we are talking age.

Jones has always been on a pitch count for all intents and purposes, and his frequent injuries sidelined him for stretches nearly every season- that's time where he's not taking a beating on the field. Whereas Jacobs has been ground into the mud every year of his young career.

The good news is, the workload in GB probably feels like a vacation for Jacobs.

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GregC's picture

December 26, 2024 at 06:53 pm

Injuries save a player from taking a beating on the field, but they often lead to physical decline. I think Jacobs has more quality football ahead of him than Jones does. It seems like the power runners have longer careers, in general, than the highly elusive guys.

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Oppy's picture

December 26, 2024 at 05:54 pm

Another small note- you mention "An average game, our RBs give us about 150 yards of offense..."

Need to pay close attention to the stats you're pulling up. Yes, 147 yards (and change) rushing per game, but that's all rushing yards, which includes QB scrambles out of the backfield, WRs taking the occasional sweep, etc. It's not purely RB yards.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 27, 2024 at 09:33 am

Oppy, I added up the total yards from scrimmage (rushing and passing) of our three main backs and divided by 15.

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Bitternotsour's picture

December 27, 2024 at 10:00 am

we were told there wouldn't be math

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pacman's picture

December 26, 2024 at 07:33 pm

Did anyone think letting Jones go was a great move at the time? I think everyone probably agrees with this article.
I didn't quite know what to make of the swap but to me it highlighted that we kept Barry as DC even though he didn't perform and we let Jones go even though he did. Pretty big difference between Gute and MLF. That was 3 years wasted by MLF and even though Packers are playing well now, I'm still concerned MLF will mess this up.

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GregC's picture

December 26, 2024 at 09:17 pm

They let Jones go after they got Jacobs. There was a moment when people thought the Packers might keep both of them, but it was expected that Jones would be let go once they got Jacobs. If they had let Jones go BEFORE they got Jacobs, a lot of people would've been unhappy, at least until he was replaced, but that's not how it happened.

As I recall, most fans were okay with the swap or at least willing to give it a chance. We knew the Packers were getting a player who had led the league in rushing a couple years before. I liked the move because I thought it was good to try something different after Jones' injuries nearly wrecked the 2023 season.

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cdoemel's picture

December 27, 2024 at 01:52 am

Injuries and the fumbles. Love the guy though.

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Starrbrite's picture

December 26, 2024 at 11:13 pm

I did not have to be convinced Jacob’s was an upgrade; I was certain; and so were a few others.
I watched him with Raiders for a few years and was always impressed. He’s not a speedster, but we have all witnessed his knack for sliding thru tight windows and his ability to break tackles. I like him most for his ability to score…and his availability.
I’ve compared him to Paul Hornung, although I’ve only seen Hornung in highlight reels. He also reminds me of Maurice Jones-Drew.
Go Packers!!!

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porupack's picture

December 26, 2024 at 11:20 pm

Ken, your choice of lead photo for the article was awesome! That, is a poster if ever there was a deserving picture. That saint wanted no part of tackling Jacobs. A picture is worth a thousand.......
+ yards bushhog.

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LLCHESTY's picture

December 27, 2024 at 12:05 am

Jacobs has made average blocking look good and his physical style has rubbed off on the the RBs in the room. He just spent $100,000 on Xmas resents for the OL, giving them necklaces with their numbers in diamonds, so maybe they'll reward his largesse by giving him some more wiggle room.

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cdoemel's picture

December 27, 2024 at 01:48 am

I didn’t love it, but I understood and agreed with it. Gonna be a game Sunday! Who!

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Cheezehead72's picture

December 27, 2024 at 06:29 am

I did not like seeing the Packers let Jones go. I do like Jones and he is a very good RB and person. He is a true Packer. I was upset that Jones signed with the Vikings for a lot less than what I thought other teams would have signed him. Yes I was not happy with Gute for letting him go after he helped out the team with a true salary cut. I liked the idea that we signed Jacobs and I was sure he would be as good if not better than Jones. Most of all I liked that he was younger and seemed more durable. I am glad Gute made the right choice.

I am not making a pick on the Packers game this week because I am at a loss as to what is going to happen.

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T7Steve's picture

December 27, 2024 at 06:48 am

First off, the Packers / Gute didn't let Jones go. They were in negotiations and eventually even offered more money than the Vikings, but it was either too late and or Jone and his agent had soured. This is according to Spoff on Packers.com. I still think Gute was going for Jacobs and maybe that was part of the problem for Jones too along with his having bent over backwards in previous years and not feeling appreciated.

I loved having Jones on the Packers, but Gute seems to know when to cut bait. Aren't we glad we don't have the Campbell problem that the 9ers had this season.

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Coldworld's picture

December 27, 2024 at 08:31 am

As I recall from the time, they did not offer more. They offered more than they had initially, but Jones still got about a million more from the Vikings.

My personal suspicion is that they were offering Jones on a scale that would have had him as a complimentary piece. That was going nowhere and his agent arranged plan B.

In hindsight I think it probably wouldn’t have been a particularly easy cohabitation simply because Jacobs thrives on consistent and frequent use to a degree that probably couldn’t have happened smoothly.

It’s a shame that injuries and an appendix have robbed us of the chance to see Lloyd establish himself this year. I am still hopeful that he will be an ideal complimentary piece to Jacobs next year.

I also think that we were likely lucky that injuries led to Wilson getting the opportunities he had. He’d the ideal sub for Jacobs and had been far more effective than Dillon ever was. PFF has him as their 8th highest rated RB (84) and 6th highest in rushing alone. His 4.8 yards per carry is 8th out of 49 qualifying RBs. Not bad for a seeming afterthought in the summer.

If Jacobs were to go down, I’m pretty optimistic Wilson could keep our run game relevant. I can’t really complain about Brooks’ block first contribution either. We have actually ended up with the best and most mutually complimentary overall RB room I recall.

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GregC's picture

December 27, 2024 at 09:39 am

I like this group too. I think it is fine to have a group of RBs who are similar, as long as they all have power and decent speed. Then you can just plug and play and continue running your offense no matter which one is in there.

I'm so glad they replaced A. J. Dillon. Too bad about his injury, but he needed to go.

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Handsback's picture

December 27, 2024 at 11:54 am

It's a difference between being a finesse offense verses a physical one. Loved Jones, but he wasn't a pounder that could set up the pass. Jacobs affects this team in many ways, the obvious and most important one is making teams drop that 2 High-safety look to stop the run. That allows Love to look at his vast array of targets and pick and chose to keep those chains moving. It also allows him to go for the big gainer, which in my opinion may be too often but hey I'm not a NFL coach. But I did sleep in a Holiday Day Express this week!
Just MHO

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NFLfan's picture

December 27, 2024 at 02:40 pm

Tired cliche--'availability is the best ability'

Jones missed 11 games in 2023

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Turophile's picture

December 27, 2024 at 05:51 pm

Ken, if you were that reluctant to move on from Jones, you were not factoring in how carefully the Packers were handling him and subbing other guys in quite a bit. He was somewhat fragile and dinged up more than you would like, though a great runner while healthy. Then there was his age.

He was traded for another RB who was built better to withstand the battering that the NFL dishes out to RBs. Jacobs was also several years younger and had a very similar contract. The final advantage was that Jacobs went from a poor team to a possible SB contender, which can really energise a player who hasn't been seeing the playoffs regularly - or even at all.

As Belichick said, better to move on from a player a year early than a year late. It doesn't mean I don't fully appreciate what Aaron brought to the Packers - he was a fan favourite for a good reason - but age catches up to us all, steadily, but unstoppably.

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