The Lass Word: Pack Setting Impressive Pace

Can they beat a top team?

We are six games into the 2024 season.  Can we begin to assess if this Green Bay Packers team, still the youngest team in the league, has taken a step forward?  Are they better than last year?  The record is certainly better.  After six games in 2023 Green Bay had a mark of 2-4 and had lost three games in a row.  This season the Pack currently sits at 4-2, has won two straight, and is tied for the third best record in the NFC.  If the playoffs began today, Green Bay would be the number seven seed as a wild card. 

But with apologies to Bill Parcells (“you are what your record says you are”), it’s a bit tricky to judge this team based on its record.  None of the four teams the Packers have whipped have a winning record.  Both of the teams that beat Green Bay do have a winning record.  What is missing thus far in this young season is a signature victory over a good team.  That opportunity presents itself Sunday when the 5-1 Houston Texans come to Lambeau. 

In the meantime, it is interesting to look at the stats in hopes they may provide a little insight as to how good this team actually is, and can become.  The answer is, very good.  Scary good.  

Some examples:  Jordan Love is on a pace to throw for 4,241 passing yards.  That would be 82 yards more than he accumulated in his first year as a starter in 2023.  This despite missing two games with that MCL sprain.  Even more enticing, Love is on a torrid touchdown passing pace, averaging three per game.  If he keeps that up, he will finish the regular season with 45.  That would be the most by a Green Bay quarterback since Aaron Rodgers rang up 48 in 2020.  Rodgers won the MVP award that year. 

Do the Packers miss the rushing production of Aaron Jones?  Josh Jacobs is averaging just over 77 yards on the ground per game.  If he maintains that pace, which seems very doable, he will finish the regular season with 1,314 yards.  That would be the highest single season rushing performance by a Packer since Ahman Green set the franchise record with 1,883 in 2003.   

Jayden Reed, as a rookie last season, led the team in receiving yards with 793.  This year he is on a pace to finish with 1,252.  That would be the highest total since Davante Adams put up 1,553 in 2021.  And those are just Reed’s receiving yards.  He’s also been an effective rusher on the jet sweep. 

Has Jeff Hafley made any improvement on the defense?  The unit still gives up a lot of yards, but they are compensating for it by taking the ball away at an impressive rate.  After six games, Green Bay defenders have nine interceptions.  Five of those are by Xavier McKinney, who is easily the most noticeable addition to the team.  At that rate, the Packers would finish the regular season with 25 picks.  That would be the most since the team had 31, back in 2011.  By the way, the franchise record for interceptions in a season is a mind-boggling 42, done by the 1943 team.  They didn’t even have defensive coordinators back then.  Head coach Curly Lambeau did it all.   

In fact, it surprised me to find that defensive coordinator is a relatively recent position.  Green Bay’s first one was Dave Hanner, appointed in 1972 (profootballhistory.com). 

But I digress.  In the most important stat, which is victories, the Packers are on a pace to win eleven games, which would almost certainly put them in the thick of the playoff picture. 

You get the idea.  Statistically, this Green Bay team looks extremely potent.  One of the best overall teams in recent history.  Of course, projecting stats is just speculation.  You can’t foresee injuries, and the schedule gets much more challenging.  Four of the next five games are against the Texans, Lions, Bears and 49ers.  We’ll see if the outlook is just as bright a month from now. 

Stats are just a snapshot of a team at a point in time.  But at least for now, that photo paints an exciting and successful portrait.  

 

 

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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.

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Comments (32)

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CheeseEdWest2's picture

October 17, 2024 at 03:10 pm

Yes, it's all about trajectory. I'd say it's a good start given key injuries, a new DC, adding a decent kicker and bump up at backup QB, a revamped S and LB corp. Where will the S and LB rooms be 2/3 of the way through the season? What if three Safeties becomes a go to? The LB development and a reshuffle that honors Cooper's play seems key. What will happen when the other new LB's start to get more playing time? Will the pass rush resurface? And what about Naomi?

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Rebelgb's picture

October 17, 2024 at 04:22 pm

Some times the best articles are short and to the point. This is one of them. Great article. The next 4 weeks will certainly show us what kind of team we want to be come playoff time. The worrying fact is we could potentially miss the playoffs, even with 11 wins if Minnesota and Detroit both win 12 or more games (certainly possible) and another NFC team rises up to take that final wild car spot.

I think this weekend is going to be a very good test for the Packers. The Texans are young like us, and they are talented, like us. They have a very good defense and a top 10 QB with a solid OL.

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Savage57's picture

October 18, 2024 at 03:49 am

Well said.

Ken's articles are like an island of written salvation in a sea of empty chatter by people in love with the sound of their own voice.

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LeotisHarris's picture

October 17, 2024 at 04:32 pm

Thanks, Ken, but I'm gonna need to lean on my friend TK to help me with all them maths. He should be along soon to use his winnowing to cipher out all the goes-in-tos. I'm afraid all the suh-tiss-ticks in sports these days make my slender brain ache. Then, I get angry and want to give Billy Beane a wedgie. I guess I feel like an assistant special teams quality control coordinator without a Microsoft Surface. .

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Gravedigger93's picture

October 17, 2024 at 04:41 pm

Always appreciate the columns Ken.
Lies, damn lies and statistics... but I'm optomistic about the team too.
1/3 of the way through the season and some real surprises to me:

Positive ones: Xavier has been unbelievably good. Second best rushing team in the league? Wow, more of that please. Tucker Kraft, maybe new favorite player. Myers and Ryan doing better than expected. Back up QB-far exceeded expectations. Leading the league in turnover diff. Best division in football?? Who would have thought that.

Negative ones: Gary really underperforming his contract, most of the time I don't even know he's on the field. Quay, what is he doing out there. Pretty disappointing. Kicker(s), OK, maybe not a surprise but the GM really screwed this one up. (balances out with back up QB).

I think the turnovers may be masking the defense's weaknesses, but I'll take it.
Also, statistically Love isn't living up to his contract. 31st in the league in completion % and middle of the pack in QB rating(s). Those need to improve. Watching him play I would have thought he was doing better compared to the other QBs. Lotta season left and I wouldn't trade him for any other QB in our division.
Go Pack Go!

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Leatherhead's picture

October 17, 2024 at 04:50 pm

We've already lost one home game this year and it's really hard to make the playoffs if you can't win on your homefield. IMO, we probably have to win the rest of our home games....Houston, Detroit, Chicago, 49ers, Saints, and Dolphins....if we want to make the playoffs. The road has Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago and we'll have to win at least one of those, as well as the Jags and the Seahawks, where we could maybe pick up one.

I agree this is going to be a real test this weekend. If we could win, and go to 5-2, and then get a road win against Jacksonville, we'd be 6-2 when we host Detroit. A win there puts us at 7-2, a bye week, and then a date with the Bears. That's a real good position to be in halfway through.

xxx

I did a quick check at the scores of last week's games, and the winning team had 36, 35, 34, 41, 51, 47, 38, 32, and 30. Some games were won by teams scoring less than 30, but you just can't go through the season expecting to hold everybody to 20 or less. These are juggernaut offenses and when they're 'on', it's really hard to hold them under 30. Last week, every team that scored at least 30 was a winner. In the playoffs last year, in 12 out of 13 games, the winning score was at least 24. You've got to be able to execute in the clutch in order to win, and so every game, I'm looking for us to roll on offense. I think/hope we'll be good enough on defense if this team can roll up 30+

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porupack's picture

October 17, 2024 at 05:24 pm

Nice way to frame the challenge regarding the high scoring teams we have to beat. great point.

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Leatherhead's picture

October 17, 2024 at 07:24 pm

Thanks. I just don't think you can go out there and think in terms of a 21-17 win. We're going to need to score 30 on these guys and HOPE we can hold them under 30.

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bossofallbosses's picture

October 17, 2024 at 08:23 pm

Texans scored 30+ points only once this year vs the 8th worst defense in the NFL in the Patriots.

Packers relinquished 30+ points on defense vs the Eagles (first game rookies not involved yet, neq system, worst field conditions in NFL history) and 31 pts to the Vikes (2 int's for TD's due to injured Love's first game back rusty and on one leg.

Packers defense qith Joe Barry held Detoilet to 14 pts before garbage time, KC to 19 pts and SF to 24 pts. Packers upgraded the DC, S, FS, OLB, and N CB. I do not expect any team to score more than 24 points on GB the rest of the season (unless they have the qorst field conditions in history or 3 TO's in GB territory.

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GregC's picture

October 18, 2024 at 08:13 am

So if they lose one more home game, they probably won't make the playoffs? I'm not buying that at all. Last year they beat all three division rivals on the road and lost to two of them at home.

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Leatherhead's picture

October 18, 2024 at 12:13 pm

I'm saying this is how Math works. You need to win a certain number of games to make the playoffs. IF you win your home games, and break through on the road a couple of times, you'll win 11 games or so,usually good enough for the playoffs.

Every home game you lose, then that's one more game you have to win on the road to balance out. 8-0 at home and 4-4 on the road gives you 12 wins. But if you go 6-2 at home, and 4-4 on the road, now you're 10-6 . If you go 5-3 at home, then you have to go 5-3 on the road, too, if you want to get to 10 wins.

It's like tennis: If you hold your serve, you only have to break your opponent once and you can win the set. But every time you lose a game on your serve, that makes one more time you have to break your opponent's serve.

That loss to Minnesota on our homefield hurt, and it's going to hurt for a while yet. I think that losing again at home this weekend would be a real bad sign for our playoff hopes.

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dblbogey's picture

October 17, 2024 at 05:00 pm

Hanner was the first official defensive coordinator (and was really bad at it). I was thinking Phil Bengtson was DC under Lombardi, but he wasn't officially the DC. " Though Hanner is essentially the first in Packers history identified as "defensive coordinator," Bengtson was the clear leader of the defense during the Vince Lombardi..."

Nice article. 11 games left and a lot of unknowns and surprises looming ahead.

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porupack's picture

October 17, 2024 at 05:39 pm

Nice thought provoking article. You already mention that the winning record was acquire in part by playing subpar teams.....but then go on to mention that this team is scary good based on some individual (and impressive) stats against those sub par teams. So....it doesn't strengthen the claim that GB is scary or could be scary good yet.
All them stats are not likely to be sustained for two reasons; they were subpar teams we played against, and the fickleness of statistics is a reverting to the mean....like having a 100year level flood in two back to back years doesn't tell you the climate has changed. Not being political. Just an ANN-alergy.
So as you say...next couple opponents give us some truth'n to reckon with.

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T7Steve's picture

October 18, 2024 at 06:35 am

Last season the 2-4 record was against subpar teams too. Much improved to win against teams you should rather than keeping them in the game and even losing to some of them.

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jont's picture

October 17, 2024 at 06:15 pm

The Packers are 4-2 with 11 left to play. 7-5 the rest of the way is almost certainly in the playoffs.

Most of us would consider a 7-5 run to be a borderline disaster. Seriously under-performing.

I am not too worried about making the playoffs.

As with every week, I want to see them play better than last week. The Texans will be a serious test. They look like a good team on both sides of the ball. And to me Stoud and Love look pretty similar in terms of skill, control of the offense, composure, and movement. I think GB will have to play a good, complete game to win.

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NickPerry's picture

October 17, 2024 at 06:40 pm

I'm looking at the is game as a VERY important game. Minnesota is 5-0 with a game in hand on the Packers. The Lions are 4-1, already had their bye, but the Lions are a really good team (wow does that feel weird to say). Just like Ken mentioned, the Packers haven't beaten anyone, not really. Beating the Texans says something.

The Texans may be without several starters on Defense as well as Nico Collins on offense. If there was a time to play them I guess this is it. Hopefully it's another dominant performance, just like last week.

Go Pack Go!

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Since'61's picture

October 17, 2024 at 07:38 pm

It's too early to assess how good this Packers team is for this season. As correctly pointed out the next 4 games will tell us plenty about the Packers and how good they actually are. Consistentcy is still the question mark for this team. If they can maintain the level of play they delivered against the Rams versus the next 4 opponents then I think we can claim that the Packers have found their consistency.

The bottom line is that none of the upcoming opponents can be taken lightly and the Packers can only play one game at a time. Beat the Texans and go from there. If the OL plays solidly the offense will score 28 points or more. The defense needs to find their pass rush. The level of opposing QBs improves against the next 4 opponents. The Packers need to.make those QBs uncomfortable to keep the games from becoming shootouts. Mitigate penalties and turnovers and we should be OK. Go Pack go! Thanks, Since '61

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

October 18, 2024 at 11:52 pm

Since'61 quote: "The bottom line is that none of the upcoming opponents can be taken lightly..."

You can say that again. All of us long time Packer fans have seen time and time again that the old "On Any Sunday" thing proven to be true.

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petiteappeal's picture

October 18, 2024 at 02:10 am

Conquer precise jumps and create your own record! https://geometrydash-game.io - where you test your own speed limit!

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LLCHESTY's picture

October 18, 2024 at 08:41 am

How the hell did they get to link this and I can't link something that's actually about football? This site needs some work.

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Bitternotsour's picture

October 18, 2024 at 10:22 am

I'm not going to click it to see if it's a live link, but it could be that it's an .io suffix rather than a .com

you can post links, but you have to break them so the hyperlink is non-functional.

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Coldworld's picture

October 18, 2024 at 10:37 am

.io is assigned to the Chagos islands where virtually no civilian lives and which has just been surrendered by the UK to Mauritius whereafter the domain has been jumped on by nobody you want. Click on that if you really want bad things.

Avoid anything .io. It’s not there and it’s not what it says it is.

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Bitternotsour's picture

October 18, 2024 at 10:56 am

Thanks Coldworld. .io shows up on things and always looks suspect. I'm surprised that they are able to get those to post here.

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porupack's picture

October 18, 2024 at 07:52 am

yes. all true. Still my point, we can't conclude this is a scary team neither by the record, nor by individual stats considering the quality of opponent.

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HarryHodag's picture

October 18, 2024 at 08:18 am

You have to beat the good teams, especially at home, or else you're a pretender not a contender.

If Houston gets its way when they have the ball it will be long day. The Packers defense has to play its best game of the season.

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Starrbrite's picture

October 18, 2024 at 01:44 pm

10-4 Harry—right on!

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LambeauPlain's picture

October 18, 2024 at 08:37 am

Ordinarily this would be a real battle of offenses vs defenses.

Packers will have a full inventory of weapons for Love to attack a depleted Texans D.

If the Pack Attack D can break out on the front 7, the day could well be "Houston, we have a problem."

If not, it could become stampede of points on both sides because Love won't be stopped and Stroud is a scary good gunslinger.

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LLCHESTY's picture

October 18, 2024 at 08:46 am

I'm more worried about Mixon than Stroud. Stroud will get his but if Mixon gets going it will be a long day for the defense. Not good on very warm day for October.

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LambeauPlain's picture

October 18, 2024 at 11:43 am

I am concerned about both, and I agree Mixon is job one in the first half. You make a good point if he gets going, and wears down/frustrates the front 4, Stroud will attempt strike through the air, albeit without his best receiver.

Beware the track meet.

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Grandfathered's picture

October 19, 2024 at 08:34 pm

Why bewarew? If the offense is cooking, we have a good chance of winning a track meet. Maybe our kicker will be better.

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Coldworld's picture

October 18, 2024 at 08:51 am

Stroud is atypical for a pocket passer: he thrives when given time in a stable pocket. That sounds like an obvious statement, but he needs more than most who don’t seek to extend with legs. They achieve that by blunting the rush primarily through Mixon and the run. Get Stroud throwing quickly and his results and decisions decline fast. We have to start out strong against the run and collapse/move pockets. Do that, and then I think we can take control of this game.

Offensively, this is not a game for vanilla. It should suit a varied attack and Reed/Melton moving into the back field to confuse their coverages and then blocking/running/running routes out of that formation. Don’t let them settle into conventional D. That starts with running the ball successfully. Do that, it blunts the rush and draws men into the box.

Our pass rush must be much more of a factor consistently to disrupt the pocket and move it. Our OTs face some real challengers on both sides. The key to our day offensively could well be how they hold up and then if our IOL can hold its line in the pass game and open at least some cracks in the run game. This is a game where our O and D linemen have to win and prove their merit as a unit and individually.

A good test. I think the trenches decide this game and how they do will speak volumes for our real competitor position post season and in division. This is not as good an OL as the Lions’ but their rush is better not just more multiple after the loss of Hutchinson, but that aside, it’s a similar challenge in terms of keys to the day. We can not do what we started out doing against the Vikings. It will be interesting to see what lessons Hafley has drawn and how he reflects them.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

October 18, 2024 at 12:18 pm

Based upon what I have seen on TV it seems the Packers have a strong team chemistry and cohesiveness. The way they rallied around Romo Doubs after his reinstatement and welcomed him back I believe helped to put him at ease and perform at an optimum level. I see no "Divas" on this team and no "me, me, me" which is wonderful for an NFL team to have. A situation where we may consider that the "whole" is greater than the individual parts.

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