Four games into the season and the landscape is beginning to define itself.  As expected, the NFC North is proving to be one of the most competitive in the NFL.  Three of the four teams have already demonstrated dynamic offense, and the fourth, the Chicago Bears, are likely to improve on that side of the ball each week. 

So it would seem the winner of the division is going to be largely decided by defense.  Which team can field a defensive unit that is consistent enough to win the close games?  Thus far, the results are wildly mixed.  The Vikings are off to a 4-0 start, and indeed their defense leads the division in the most important category, points allowed.  The Packers currently rank last among their division rivals in this column.   

Does that mean the Vikings have the best defense in the North?  Not necessarily.  Looks can be deceiving.  If you grant there are seven major statistical categories for a defense, those being points allowed, total yards allowed, turnovers created, passing yards allowed, interceptions, rushing yards allowed and accepted penalties against, comparing the four NFC North teams in each reveals a somewhat surprising result.   

You can make the case that the Packers currently have at least as a good a defensive unit, if not better, than any of the other three.  Of those seven categories, Green Bay leads in three of them, the Vikings lead two and the Bears lead two.  The Packers top the others in turnovers. In fact, Green Bay leads the entire league in that category with twelve.  They are also best in interceptions with eight.  And I had to do a double take when I discovered, according to Pro Football Reference, that the Packers lead the division, and are tied for second in the entire NFL, in fewest accepted defensive penalties.  This seems impossible since Green Bay’s games have been littered with infractions.  They have the fourth highest total number of penalties in the league.  But many of those flags have been on the offensive side of the ball for holding and false starts.  Jeff Hafley’s unit is also second in the North in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed.  

The Vikings lead in two areas, points allowed and rushing defense.  Despite all of the hype for their defense, Minnesota is last in the division in total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. The Bears are on top in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed.  Detroit, the preseason pick to win the North by most observers, doesn’t lead the division in any category.  In fact, the Lions are last in turnovers, and no better than third in points allowed, total yards allowed and pass yards allowed. 

Of course, you can’t just go by stats.  The eye test is important as well.  The Packers clearly lack consistency in pass rush, and when the pressure on the quarterback isn’t there, the secondary struggles to cover.  The Vikings deserve credit for leading in points allowed despite playing against three explosive offenses, the 49ers, Texans and Packers. 

Still, Green Bay has a very good chance to emerge as the top defense in the division eventually, considering Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine will be back at some point, as will Devonte Wyatt, who was off to the best start of his career.  Second round pick Edgerrin Cooper is gradually earning more playing time and beginning to become visible in the game plan.  Isaiah McDuffie and Kingsley Enagbare have taken steps forward.  Rookie safeties Javon Bullard and Evan Williams have made a few plays and will only get better.  Quay Walker flashes, but seems to struggle in the middle linebacker position, and might be better suited on the outside. 

The Packers have dug themselves a formidable hole early on.  They already trail Minnesota by two games plus a tiebreaker.  Waiting for the Vikings to turn back into a pumpkin may not happen.  They are well coached and have talent across the board.   

I have little doubt about the Green Bay offense.  They will score, and eventually they will work through those slow starts.  The defense will determine the fate of the green and gold.  That unit gets a bit of good fortune this weekend when they play the Rams at a time when they will be without star receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  But still on the schedule are explosive offenses such as the Texans, 49ers, Seahawks, the Lions twice and the Vikings again.   

Injuries, as always, will be a critical factor.  If this defense can get healthy and stay that way, I like their chances of leading this team back to the post season.