The Lass Word: "All In" is Now All the Rage
Whatever happened to draft and develop?
By KenLass
Somewhere beneath a gentle meadow in Texas, Ted Thompson must be wincing in his grave. The former Green Bay general manager’s beloved philosophy of draft and develop is going the way of the dinosaur and the dodo bird.
In today’s NFL, it’s all about being “all in”. In a copycat league, rest assured teams have taken due notice of the success of the Los Angeles Rams, after they threw draft and develop out the window, amassing veteran star talent at the expense of all of their premium draft picks, tossing aside concerns about salary cap space. As a result, if the current draft order stands, the Rams will be the last team in the league to draft a prospect this year. They won’t be on the clock until the end of day two. Their highest pick is the second to last selection in the third round, number 104 overall. Even that is a compensatory pick.
You don’t need to feel sorry for them. They will console themselves by admiring the shiny new Lombardi trophy that now resides at Sofi stadium. They are where every other team wants to be. Defending Super Bowl champs. And more so than ever, other clubs are choosing to take the same route to get there. “All in” is all the rage. First and second round picks? Those are for losers. Teams have been shedding them like skin off a snake.
If the draft began today, a staggering eight teams, fully one quarter of the league, would not participate in Day One. Those currently sitting out on opening night include the Raiders, Bears, Colts, 49ers, Broncos, Browns and Dolphins, in addition to the aforementioned Rams. This is what happens when “all in” becomes the trend. All of those teams, except the Raiders and Dolphins, gave away their top selection in an effort to land a franchise quarterback. In most cases, the pick was part of a package of premium selections that went to some other team, usually a bottom feeder that has decided to launch into full rebuilding mode. The Raiders and Dolphins sent off their future high choices for top receivers.
It seems clear that today’s general managers and coaches don’t feel they can survive a two or three year draft and develop process. This is especially true at the quarterback position. The prevailing thought appears to be that, by the time you draft one and develop him into a starter who can compete for championships, fans and management will run out of patience and replace you. So let someone else draft and develop the quarterback. Then trade whatever it takes to acquire him.
In addition, trying to develop your own signal caller is a crap shoot. Look at the Denver Broncos. After winning a championship in Peyton Manning’s final year, they tried to draft and develop a new QB. They selected Trevor Siemien in 2015, Paxton Lynch in 2016, and Drew Lock in 2019. All three failed. The Broncos had had enough of draft and develop. So this offseason they traded away their drafting future for Russell Wilson. The Cleveland Browns did the same to acquire Deshaun Watson, and they can’t even be sure he will be allowed to play this season. No matter. If you don’t take the risk, you won’t be given the time to improve gradually.
The upshot of the “all in” frenzy is that a record eight teams have multiple first round picks this year, including of course, the Packers. The previous high was six teams. Green Bay is joined by the Lions, Texans, Giants, Jets, Eagles, Saints and Chiefs. All of those teams, with the exception of the Chiefs, can be described as being in rebuild mode. Does that mean the Packers are no longer “all in”?
Well, let’s just say the Pack is as all in as they can afford to be. You can only stay in the “all in” mode for a few years. Eventually the cap will force you out of it. Green Bay pulled out all the stops for last season. They are trying their darndest to run it back, re-signing as many from last year as they can. They reset Aaron Rodgers as the highest paid quarterback in league history. Brought back Campbell, Douglas and Tonyan. Did all they could to re-sign Davante Adams. His refusal to return was a blow. It left them with a glaring hole at receiver. Last year’s “all in” strategy also compelled them to release several back up players, so there is a concerning lack of quality depth.
This is why I will be surprised if Green Bay keeps all of their first and second round picks in the coming draft. The Matt LaFleur Packer teams have set the bar high. Maybe too high for their own good. Three straight seasons of thirteen wins. The front office has to be wondering if they can risk a drop off while drafting a slew of young players and trying to develop them. Fans don’t have much patience. My guess is they will try to stay “all in” by packaging some of these high picks for established, quality players, including a star receiver.
And why not? It’s what the “in” crowd is doing. Or should I say, the “all in” crowd.
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Ken Lass is a former Green Bay television sports anchor and 43 year media veteran, a lifelong Packers fan, and a shareholder.
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Comments (120)
Razer
April 08, 2022 at 07:15 am
There is a time for all-in to get to the top. The Packers, Rams and Bucs pushed a lot of chips into the pile to get to the dance. If your roster is ripe and in need of a couple of pieces, the strategy is totally valid. Of course there is a price that the franchise will have to pay. Ken cites Denver because they are languishing in the rebuild that must follow. The all-in team will eventually need to shed the salaries and rely on draft or cheaper pieces to rebuild the core team.
What I find most troublesome about the all-in approach is that we may start to see feeder teams (farm teams) who use this as a business model. Teams that take salary or develop players for the top teams could generate a lot of profit for the owner. Baseball doesn't have a CAP but is sure has a lot of active farm teams . Hate to see the NFL become a have/have not league.
I like the Packer approach. We have seen almost 30 years of competitive success. Pretty remarkable for the smallest market team in pro sports.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 10:05 am
The lack of a true hard cap on baseball, and no meaningful limits on how they run their minor league affiliates, means MLB will always be a different cat. The AAAA Pirates and Marlins mostly hang there as a result of (1) an inability to invest in player development and international scouting, and (2) bad luck in getting groups of prospects to ascend to being the core of a contending team at the same time.
Periodically they make a run when they can hit on those prospects in trade and get a bunch to mature during the same contract cycles, but they're eventually forced to sell because they can't pay, and then they have to hope the prospects they get mature together into the nucleus of the next cycle. AT this point, the Brewers are in a window, but they'll be challenged to keep it up when their pitching needs to be paid.
jannesbjornson
April 08, 2022 at 10:44 am
All-in only works when you have the QB. Draft Whiffs that accrue and need replacement is thorn in the Packer's side. Re-load and roll with it.
Starrbrite
April 08, 2022 at 07:32 pm
Yes—exactly right. If you don’t have the guy who can pull the trigger—you’re treading water.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 12:34 pm
The only way to increase profit significantly in the NFL is to low ball your coaches, scouts, GMs, and refuse to do proper upkeep on one's facilities. Putting a poor team on the field eventually translates into fewer fans in the stands and in pro shops, so your worry means the owner is short-sighted.
stockholder
April 08, 2022 at 07:16 am
All IN means Lucky. "The Rams were Lucky". It's still about the money. Rodgers came back for it. Adams Didn't. The more teams go ALL in. The more the cupboard will be bare. Free Agency is changing the NFL. And it has changed the packers. IF the packers don't use their picks wisely. Their money wisely. We will see a return to the 80s. TT protected his picks and money. The franchise came first. And if you believe you can compete and win. You will never lose hope. It's time to put up or shut up. Where there is a will, there is a way.
jannesbjornson
April 08, 2022 at 10:45 am
20 Days and Counting...
murf7777
April 08, 2022 at 07:35 am
Great article. I think there is two components working here. One, teams are more willing, although somewhat reluctantly, to trade stars. Two, players are forcing teams to trade for their own motivations, IE: go to a super team and/or $$’s. We will see less and less players retiring from the same team.
All-in is a concept that is driven as much by the players then the teams IMO. I’m not so sure most teams like the idea of going all-in then a total rebuild. I wonder if the NFL isn’t becoming more of a players league like the NBA and MLB. NFL’s salary cap is the fairest of them all and is the great equalizer, not allowing a team to stay all-in like the NBA where you pay a tax to be in that situation longer. Will the way the salary cap and franchise tag work change during the next negotiations is hard to say, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the star players get more power. The more power star players get the more you will see movement and trades amongst teams.
As long as the salary cap and franchise tag remains as is, Draft and develop will always be prevalent because once you leave all-in you progress back to draft and develop. For how long you stay in that mode, depends on the team and as importantly, the star players willingness to stay with the team and work within the SC needs of the team.
I like it the way it is/was, but I suspect, we will see more and more of the what is happening this year in the future.
Razer
April 08, 2022 at 08:41 am
...I wonder if the NFL isn’t becoming more of a players league like the NBA and MLB...
I definitely see this happening and I am not a fan. Guys playing one year deals to get a ring is one thing but players controlling rosters and team management is another. It was one of the things that worried me most about Aaron Rodgers and his perceived increased role.
croatpackfan
April 08, 2022 at 01:09 pm
And what we will see? I agree with you that more teams will go in "all-in" mode. But only one can get the prize! More "all in" teams means less chances to win it all. And then, on the surface will again float out draft and develop team. As we saw with Bengals this season. They are top 3 to win next SB. They stocked OL (what was their main weakness) and they will be team no one team (especilly "all in" team) wants to see in the play-off. Than, the narrative willl again favor draft and develop. "All in" teams will change their management and there will be few franchizes for numbers of GMs that will lose jobs.
Many forgot that there is no warranty if you are "all in" team that you will win SB. More likely not. Let see last 11 SB winners. How many "all in" teams got SB. 3 out of 11. Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay and LAR. Patriots were never "all in" team and they won 3 of the last 11. The rest 5 teams were Packers, Giants, Ravens, Seahawks, Eagles and Chiefs.
Statistic is not in favor of "all in" attitude...
HawkPacker
April 08, 2022 at 08:03 am
Dup
HawkPacker
April 08, 2022 at 08:02 am
I like where GB sits right now. I hope they do not get rid of any of the picks in at least the two first rounds for veteran WR. I don't think they need to in order to get a great shot at the Super Bowl. If they can draft a couple of WR's early, they may be rookies, but look at them at the end of the season....they will be veterans. Also, look down the road a few year's, we will still have these wide receivers on rookie contracts and they will be excellent value at a time when the CAP will not be great for Green Bay.
This year, we can expect our defense to be much better than last year since I believe they will draft a pretty good Edge rusher and DL. Plus they will have three excellent cb's.
The special teams have no where to go but up.
I would be disappointed if we bring in a vet WR and get rid of some of our early picks in the draft.
LambeauPlain
April 08, 2022 at 09:34 am
I agree. Bringing in a veteran WR who may not even be as talented as your 1st or 2nd round WR selected on rookie deals, will have you over-paying him as a cap caged team. He would also take snaps away from the draftees.
Use the money to lock up Alexander, Jenks, maybe Savage and keep Amos around.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 10:13 am
It's a catch-22 for the Packers. They've got an expensive, HOF QB to throw the ball, but only limited quality to throw to...but bringing in a vet by traade at this stage is potentially damaging to the team.
As these players that the Packers were supposedly interested in get extended (Cooks) or traded (Parker) and come off the market, the chances at adding a quality vet via trade are dwindling. It's likely going to cost them not only valuable draft picks, but also cuts to players on the current roster (to make the cap work) and significant cap hits down the road to trade for a veteran receiver. Yes, after the draft some teams might be moving productive veteran WR, but the Packers will be forced to deal picks out of the future--and who knows what they're going to need then?
In the end, I'm thinking the best plan is turning out to be to wait for a cut or sign a vet reclamation project, and use all those picks. I think the Packers are at a stage where using those picks could be having their cake (finding talent that can contribute now) and eating it, too (low-cost players who will grow with time). There's a lot of luck involved, but their cap situation has pushed them to the point where their 4-time MVP is going to have to make lemonade out of lemons.
Isn't that what MVP/HOF QBs do?
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 10:46 am
"In the end..best plan..."
I think we dress 5, carry a 6th inactive, and another one or two on the PS. Lazard, Cobb, and Amari will be three of those six. I figure the two high draft picks and then a sixth guy that is a Day 3 or UDFA. I'm not seeing where an over the hill vet fits in...we already have Cobb.
Rodgers is going to be throwing to rookies. Math-wise, over half the offense still goes to the RBs, and Jones and Dillon aren't rookies. We're also more than likely going to have a new TE in the mix along with the rookie WRs.
I'm actually excited by the prospect of having some exciting new guys with the ball in their hands. I'm sure Rodgers can do that, if he's protected and given time to do his job.
This is going to be some tasty lemonade, and lemons are good for your health.
jannesbjornson
April 08, 2022 at 10:51 am
The game plans change every week. The targets will vary, but I would expect two rookies to contribute from this class of WRs.
Guam
April 08, 2022 at 11:46 am
"I'm actually excited by the prospect of having some exciting new guys with the ball in their hands. I'm sure Rodgers can do that, if he's protected and given time to do his job."
Who are you and what have you done with Leatherhead? :)
jannesbjornson
April 08, 2022 at 10:49 am
The free agents should go to the defensive side of the ball.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 11:07 am
The plan is flawed, and your second sentence says it all, dobberino.
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 12:37 pm
The plan got hijacked and is now a self contradictory hybrid. A 50 million QB and an O strongest in the run and reliant on rookie receivers is a very unusual form of all in. In fact it’s a cluster reliant on bucking almost every set of relevant odds.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 02:29 pm
Coldworld, I just replied to Since’61 earlier this morning on Bill Walsh’s comments on James Lofton after he was drafted, saying his success as the #6 overall in 1978 would likely be immediate.
The rookie Lofton had just over 800 yds. and about 8 TDs…
It goes right to what you’ve been talking about for months. It matters.
Hijacked is the right descriptor. That’s what’s happened. Will the team survive? Will the team be successful?
They sure as F weren’t last year. Nor the year before. Nor the year before… where are my exponents? And this is not a statement against LaFleur or Gutekunst, though I have questions there, I do think they themselves have been hijacked in their pursuits to better our team, by the narcissist 12.
Screw that.
Give me Wyatt at 22 if he’s there, then let’s see what we can do at WR. If that’s possible, please, do it. Same with Lloyd. Stick to bettering the team… Opponents were successful running on us on 3rd down >60% of the time last year. Fix that. Been calling out for it since BEFORE we got torched by SF - the first time… FFS. January 19th, 2020…
Do people see how stupid this is, continuing the ruse? Making these same mistakes??? Year after year???
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 12:40 pm
Passing on Parker for the equivalent of a late 4th to perhaps a middle of the 5th was probably a mistake. Simple as that.
I have been waiting to see if Gute has something up his sleeve before I write that it certainly was a mistake, but if I am honest I think it was a major mistake.
BirdDogUni
April 08, 2022 at 12:54 pm
Hate to disagree with ya Tgr, but Gutey has his plan, so we won't know if it was a mistake until we actually field a team. On paper it might be considered a mistake, but I don't think it was a major mistake and a team on paper means nothing. (Ask the Browns the last few years.)
HawkPacker
April 08, 2022 at 02:27 pm
I believe Parker wanted to go to NE.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 06:12 pm
Miami was 9-8 and NE was 10-7. They are in the same division. It would be like Chicago or MN being willing to trade a player to us fairly cheaply. Parker may have wanted to go to NE but he had two years left on his deal and little leverage as far as I can see.
I suppose no one offered more, and thus my calculation as to his value is off. It isn't like I have ever watched Parker play a game. Hell, maybe Miami thought NE would be worse with him than without him.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 02:36 pm
Agree. Somehow, Belichick pulls it off. He does this nearly every year if you watch him close. Master.
TGR, I’m seriously sitting here laughing & afraid!!! Lol. I don’t have a clue what Gutekunst’s going to do… Hoping he simply capitalizes on his stellar trade with LV for 22 & 52 and lands great players there.
jcod3
April 08, 2022 at 08:31 am
Totally agree with your article. No way we’re using all those picks. I look for draft pick(s) traded in return for an experienced up and coming receiver.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 10:15 am
Apparently BG and MM are tipping their hands by saying this is going to be an exciting draft. It sounds like they're planning to deal up.
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 02:40 pm
I hope you are wrong about that. There is only one way to beat the draft and that’s numbers. Trading up would significantly deplete those if it’s enough to give us a true premium player. If we are playing the rookie lotto, we need to draft catchers early often and be prepared to cut bait on the less ready, regardless of origin, come September.
LLCHESTY
April 08, 2022 at 11:08 am
I'm hoping for a trade down for more and some next year. They lost a lot of depth this year and, as of now, only have 5 picks next year. MVS probably nets them another 5th. Another late 3rd or early 4th rounder would line up well with the depth of this draft.
jannesbjornson
April 09, 2022 at 12:14 pm
He should be willing to do both and go back and forth for their targets.
Guam
April 08, 2022 at 08:52 am
The author suggests that front offices no longer will survive the draft and develop period. If that is true, front offices also won't survive the post "all-in" hangover either as the losing seasons that must surely follow an "all-in" binge will also get them fired. If you are screwed no matter what you do, maybe front offices should just do what they believe is best......
Which brings me to the New England Patriots. The Patriots seems to be doing just fine without Tom Brady or without acquiring star players in exchange for draft choices. They had a one year hiatus from the playoffs after Brady left and their front office/coaching staff has them right back in the chase for a Lombardi.
The NFL is a copycat league and given the recent success of the Rams and the Bucs, it is no surprise that "all-in" in now the vogue. However the Patriots remain the example of the "other way" to win championships.
I would rather see the Packers keep all their draft picks and start to plan for the post Rodgers era. It is coming soon.
murf7777
April 08, 2022 at 10:06 am
There’s a reason NE is doing just fine, thou the jury is out on that, and that is the mastermind of Belichick. The man is a great motivator and game manager. He also knows how to pick up aging vets at a cheap and get the remaking drip of talent out of them. No other team has him and when they lose him they will fall back to the mean.
Guam
April 08, 2022 at 11:37 am
No argument about Belichick Murf, but the point is there is an alternative to "all-in". I could also have used the Ravens as an example, but then their GM is one of the best. It is not necessarily the strategy, but the skill of those who execute it.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 12:26 pm
If you're a GM who's right a significantly higher fraction of the time than you are wrong, you'll end up in the HOF.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 10:23 am
"The author suggests that front offices no longer will survive the draft and develop period. If that is true, front offices also won't survive the post "all-in" hangover....Which brings me to the New England Patriots."
I would move to the Bears as a corollary, since the Pats are some kind of bizarre, privileged unicorn of the 2000s. Pace and Nagy secured their QB (Trubisky) and started buying (ARob, Mack, Trevathan, etc.) on the FA market and through trade. Pace was already in a tough spot, though--the John Fox era ended badly and he was on the hot seat. It created one good season because they misjudged their assessment on Nagy and their ability to develop their QB.
The rest plays out as indicateed: the GM and coach are gone, the team is mired in a rebuild, and they've sold pieces to try to become competitive around the next early QB.
"I would rather see the Packers keep all their draft picks and start to plan for the post Rodgers era. It is coming soon."
Me, too. With the picks they've got, I think they might be in a unique position to service the now and future at the same time.
jannesbjornson
April 08, 2022 at 11:02 am
The two-sided sword of draft and develop. Mitch vs Mahomes, that was his call and he perished with the choice.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 12:27 pm
...and fed us plenty of delicious fodder to taunt Bears fans with in the interim.
Guam
April 08, 2022 at 11:41 am
It is not the strategy that is most important, but the skill of the people executing the strategy. Both "all-in" and draft and develop work provided the people who execute the concept are good. And neither works if incompetents are executing the strategy. How much do we believe in Gute and MLF?
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 12:40 pm
I believe Gute is having to deal with Murphy and that’s creating a mess. I increasingly don’t believe LaFleur has what it takes. LaFleur will be the man who couldn’t win with Rodgers .
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 10:57 am
As an investor, the best time to sell is when others want to buy.
The Packers are doing real well. We're one of the top teams in the league every year. We''re going to put a real good team on the field this year, with some exciting new "playmakers".
To me, "going all in" for the Packers means keeping Rodgers healthy and giving him time. Putting a good offensive line and running game on the field to help him. Putting a defense on the field that can keep it close.
That's going all in, IMO. There is no path to the Super Bowl this year that does not include a healthy Aaron Rodgers, so you go all in on that.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 11:37 am
We’ve “put a real good offensive line and running game on the field to help him,” FOR YEARS!!!
Now, it’s all of a sudden going to materialize in success? What, now he’s open to handing the ball off?
Best time to sell is RIGHT NOW, in a blockbuster draft day trade with terms to be finalized after June 1st. I’m sure Aaron Rodgers would hate all the attention he would get in NY with the Giants, who have the 5, 7, 36, 67 and 81 Day 1 & 2…
“We’ll take all of those please, plus your #1 next year. Thank you, very much!”
NOTE: This is not far fetched.
AR has had them on his radar - slamming former NYG HC Joe Judge for calling a QB sneak on 4th and 9… on his way out the door on the Pat McAffey Show, and what do the Giants do? Hire former Bills OC Brian Daboll as their new HC. Hmmm.
$$$ Do you know how much more money the NFL would make moving AR to NY???
… Follow the money…
So much doesn’t make sense keeping him in GB, and everything makes sense with an eye towards them moving him.
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 02:32 pm
This team is not built in a way that an independent viewing suggests Rodgers is the missing piece. That’s where that logic dies and sheer hope is bridging the gap.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 12:58 pm
This is where I part company with you, and greengold. I think we've been successful under Gutekunst/LaFleur, because I don't define success as an all-or-nothing condition based on going to the Super Bowl.
My sons played tennis. Poorly, at first, then better, but still with too many errors to win. But eventually they started making the quarterfinals of tournaments, and I considered that a success as opposed to a straight-set loss. Then they started winning quarters. They they made the finals for the first time. Then they won a tournament, but the next tournament they might get bounced in the quarters again.
Falling short of the "ultimate goal" isn't failure, but giving up on your team is. In the 50 years since the merger, this is one of the very, very best periods in Packer history. That's not failure.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 02:08 pm
I don’t know about that line of thought, Leatherhead, as it truly correlating.
Isn’t giving up on your team riding Aaron Rodgers’s coattails (after 11 years of playoff futility) into certain cap hell, thereby completely abandoning any chance of success for your well chosen successor? The very capable QB Jordan Love, with 2 years of system development?
What kind of team will the Packers have around Love, should this fail?
How many years of cap hell are we buying? For???
I’m not saying that I’m right, or you’re wrong. Just sharing how I really feel about it. I think they can win it all, just like I did every year for the past decade, with the right draft, the right leadership, and the right changes in attitude and approach from 12.
Somebody keeps filling his football pants in the playoffs.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 03:48 pm
11 years of playoff futility??........would you like to be the Lions, or Cowboys, or Browns, or.......
I don't know about our cap situation in the future. I don't know what the cap will be in the future, although I'm under the impression that if Rodgers retires at the end of this season it won't be much. Perhaps somebody has a clearer answer on that.
What kind of team will we have around Love? Depending on this draft, it could be loaded with young skill position guys on their rookie contracts. A good offensive line with only one guy, Jenkins, on his second contract. A defense that plays pretty well quite a bit of the time.
It's the draft. I'll be double-damned if I'm going to worry about what might, or might not, happen 9 months from now. We're on Step 8 and y'all are worried about Step 137.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 04:07 pm
C’mon man. Go back about 3,000 steps.
Myself, pretty sure you, and many others were worried about this stuff we see now happening almost a year ago… when he turned the NFL Draft into “The Aaron Rodgers Variety Show of the Maccabre. “
No?
croatpackfan
April 08, 2022 at 04:32 pm
"11 years of playoff futility??........would you like to be the Lions, or Cowboys, or Browns, or......."
You trully believe that this season or next Packers will win SB? I do not! I hope, but as I stated earlier, you can hope that tomorrow will be sunny day, that is out of anyone control. You have data from the past on which you can partialy prognose tomorrow. But it is only possibility... There is no certain thing you can predict in the future.
And if Packers fail with sold future what do you can see? Maybe "........would you like to be the Lions, or Cowboys, or Browns, or......." becuse you'll have SC hell to deal with, not to build your team as winning one. What Packers did was just selling the future for very doubtful possibility to win SB.
I hope I'm wrong, but there is many indicators that shows the probability of being "........would you like to be the Lions, or Cowboys, or Browns, or......." is more likely than to win SB.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 08:51 pm
Thankfully, croat, we aren’t tied till death of an owner in terms of stewardship moving forward. I think we’ll be OK, but I don’t know. I want them to win the Super Bowl this year, just like I do every year. Nothing has changed for myself in this regard.
I just think this whole thing has an unappealing twang to it.
Like yourself, I have little true confidence with Aaron Rodgers at QB in getting to and winning the Super Bowl. I honestly don’t think his head and more importantly his heart are in it.
Trade him, and give the QB1 to Love as planned. Do it now.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 12:47 pm
1. Belichick has a lot of capital to spare.
2. Belichick is a great coach.
3. Belichick is a great pro personnel scout.
4. Belichick is average as a college scout/GM.
He can afford to rock the boat and do whatever he pleases. He won't get a short hook unless age becomes a factor (he turns 70 next week).
Johnblood27
April 08, 2022 at 09:09 am
Simply put, manage the TEAM for the TEAMs benefit (in terms of financial health and on-field competitiveness-it is still a TEAM sport and can be managed as such) and not the benefit of Aaron freakin Rodgers (or any other prima dona "superstar") and things will take care of themselves.
I just cannot make it any clearer than that.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 09:08 am
If you go all in, and you win the Super Bowl, everybody is happy.
What happens if you go all in, and don't win it? What if you end up mortgaging your future and you don't get the trophy for it?
I am reminded of the addage, "There's more than one way to skin a cat". I think you start with a good coach, make the roster as strong as possible, have a plan to win games and win the division. After that, there's simply too many variables to guarantee anything.
Johnblood27
April 08, 2022 at 09:12 am
LH -
What happens if you go all in, and don't win it? What if you end up mortgaging your future and you don't get the trophy for it?
Check in Green Bay Wisconsin after next season and see for yourself...
Sorry for the reality check for everyone except the All-Knowing Taryn...
Johnblood27
April 08, 2022 at 09:19 am
actually, here is my prediction.
the pack loses in the playoffs once again.
blame gets deflected from rodgers and heads all swivel with disbelief written all over the faces trying to comprehend how in the world our all-world superstar didn't deliver the Lombardi back home again.
excuses are made citing all sorts of secondary issues that contributed to the current state of the packers and disorganized chaos reigns as the cap hits ravage the roster and there is no money to fill in with meaningful free agent additions.
the roster becomes much younger and winning becomes less frequent.
mark murphy rides off into the sunset on a golden cloud and leaves the rubble in his wake while the packers struggle to regain relevance in "todays goodell NFL world" for a few years until a few solid drafts and some big hits fall off of the cap.
all is well after 5 years or so all because...
THE BARES, QUEENS and KITTIES ALL STILL SUCK!
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 12:21 pm
Aaron Rodgers lovers, “You might want to pay attention, because this involves you…”
— Elle Driver, aka: California Mountain Snake
That was well said, Johnblood27, and I can’t help but agree. Sadly, I think a lot has gone sideways, with reason thrown out the window for this unquenchable thirst for the truly magical throws that Aaron Rodgers is known to make, and the subsequent fan fervor. He doesn’t ALWAYS make those throws. We’ve seen a lot more poor grade throws at inopportune times in recent years, along with favoritism over wide open targets.
I’ve been OUT on AR since January 19th 2020. He’s a self serving narcissistic really good to great thrower of the football, and not much of a game manager. He’s proven, and stated as much, his main goal is to win the next MVP, and you can see it on the field of play, plain as day.
The registers continue to ring $$$ in GB for a limited time on this. Very limited, while the odds for success stagger.
—-
My thoughts:
1. AR cannot be trusted
2. AR is losing long ball accuracy, at a time where we are infusing our WR corps with SPEED. We all have seen it…. (and why is your first thought the Hail Mary to Richard Rodgers?)
3. Funny, that word “trust.” Forcing GB cap strain with his own new contract, making it nearly impossible to add a high-quality veteran WR - forcing Gutekunst to draft best WRs possible top of draft - possibly at the cost of losing out on other top talents at different positions. Will he “trust” them? The irony. I’d LOVE to know Aaron Jones’ & AJ Dillon’s honest thoughts on their trust regarding Aaron Rodgers, without fear of any response. Think they haven’t been screaming inside to carry more of the load?
4. I sincerely have far more confidence in Jordan Love winning a Super Bowl this year than I do in Aaron Rodgers. I cannot change that. Trade Rodgers now, at the draft, with terms to be finalized after June 1st, and give the rock to Jordan Love for a full TC and a full season as a 3rd year player as our starter to develop, while saving the future of our Green Bay Packers. The Band-Aid must come off. If not now, when?
5. A leopard doesn’t change its spots.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 01:10 pm
"I sincerely have far more confidence in Jordan Love winning a Super Bowl this year than I do in Aaron Rodgers."
That seems like a difficult sentiment to defend.
Swisch
April 08, 2022 at 02:01 pm
You're probably right, TGR, but the sad fact is that we haven't won a Super Bowl with Rodgers in a dozen years -- and the past two season have ended with gut wrenching and heartbreaking losses in the playoffs.
So, does it make fans here feel better if we have a slightly better hope of winning the Super Bowl with Rodgers, even if that slightly better hope comes with a gargantuan contract that threatens the competitiveness of the team in the near future?
Oh, and then also add in having to deal with the almost insufferable arrogance of the face of our franchise as he grabs almost all of the attention regarding the Packers.
It seems also worth mentioning that Rodgers appears to have little to no regard for us as fans.
***
To me, next season would be so much less melodramatic and embarrassing as a Packers fan, so much more exciting and fun and satisfying, if we go with Jordan Love.
If we can trade Rodgers for a good long snapper for special teams, I say we do it.
***
If other fans think I'm being too harsh, then please tell me how I'm missing how wonderful a guy Rodgers really is once you look a little deeper.
Also add something about how great it's been to beat the Bears of late and how the dismal endings in the playoffs don't really matter all that much?
Whether or not it's been the fault of Rodgers that the Packers have disappointed us in the clutch, do you really expect it all to change this season or next? Why?
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 09:13 pm
Swisch… I don’t know exactly the circumstances, but there was a moment last season when Rodgers let fly with some comment, can’t even recall what it was, but I do recall my very first thought thereafter:
“My God! This guy actually has contempt for the fans? For real? For us???”
Never spoke a word about it to anybody. Weird. Bring on the long snapper…
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 08:58 pm
Oh, I gladly will. EASY!
Where to begin… RUN THE ROCK!!!
1. OL LOVE to tee off on their opponents in front of them with smash mouth run blocking. All day.
2. JL will be doing his very best to run the plays exactly according to LaFleur’s wishes.
3. All that running opens up play action passing.
4. Jordan Love had the most powerful arm in his entire draft class in 2020.
5. We are about to add not one, but possibly 3 or 4 young WRs all with 4.3 range speed, perfect for Love who can complete deep passing plays.
6. Running more chews up more clock, and keeps opposing high powered offenses stuck on their own sidelines.
7. Opposing defenses simply get worn out after 2 or 3 Quarters of incessant pounding in a run heavy attack, which can be really fun for a talented, young skills group to play catch upon… it could be so fun to watch…!!!
8. We’re already built to run the rock. Do it!!!
9. Do we need Aaron Rodgers to do any of the above??? HELL NO.
10. DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS. Ask Nick Collins, Charles Woodson, Gilbert Brown, Santana Dotson… LeRoy Butler, Howard Green. Reggie White, Clay Matthews, Jarrett Bush… Craig Newsome, Doug Evans, … Sean Jones… Desmond Bishop, BJ Raji, Ryan Pickett, Sam Shields… Tramon Williams, Frank Zombo… Brian Williams… Mike Prior… lol
How much more do you need?
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 03:17 pm
Decent! See Oppy's comment about draft picks. No question Love can sling it. Forgive me: I grew up watching Bobby Douglas, who could throw a football through a brick wall and could run. He was still truly terrible, despite being a likeable and hard-working guy.
Not sure I view this OL as a good run blocking unit. Pretty good in zone. I think Nijman could really improve in general, in pass pro and in run blocking, particularly in space. When Jenkins returns, he will help. Myers had too small of a sample - looked pretty decent in game one and two, but I always like to see if opponents find something to exploit when film gets put out there. He is a bit of a wild card for me. Presumably, Gute and Milt know what they are doing when it comes to OL.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 03:23 pm
Man, I loved Bobby Douglas. Thanks for that memory. He was fun as hell to watch.
As to how good our OL is run blocking, give them more of a chance to show it. Dedicated power assaults, with accurate passing? Oh, man!
Every player we drafted had résumés as punishing run blockers. Play to your strengths.
Johnblood27
April 08, 2022 at 08:57 pm
Love has never failed to win a SB as a starter, how many times has AR taken a team to the playoffs and failed?
Point made...
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 11:07 am
JB 27......Let's say you're completely correct that this is what happens, and a year from now we're sitting here again. We'll still have a bunch of exciting new rookies at the skill spots. We'll still have a good defense.
I think you might want to rethink the 'ravaged roster' bit. MOST of the team won't really be making that much. If/when Rodgers retires, the cap situation will be a lot more 'normalish".
I don't think the "rubble in his wake" stuff works. By any objective measure you'd want to use, the Packers are ahead of where they were when Murphy became the President
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 12:50 pm
Really? Will you say the same next year when LaFleur finds a way to screw it up and Rodgers misses again and we all point to our receiver corps and blame Gute despite the screamingly obvious fact that this team is designed for post Rodgers, but now hamstrung as a result of keeping him regardless with perhaps the worst (this year) WR corps in his career. Their potential for the future isn’t going to help Rodgers much, but then again, his salary doesn’t help the team either.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 01:06 pm
Coldword, you're a smart enough guy to realize how illogical pessimism is.
I dispute the whole "hamstring" thing. I don't know what the cap is going to be. I don't know if Rodgers retires after this year.
"...designed for post Rodgers....."??? I think the team is designed to win the division in 2022, so that we can get into the playoffs and have a shot.
"....worst WR corps of his career"??? Before they've caught a single pass, that's quite a judgement. I mean, I could see Lazard, Cobb, and Amari joined by Burks, Pickett, and Thornton. I could see a TE added, too, which would give us more receiving options. Dillon and Jones catch their fair share.
Seriously, Coldword, if we just protect Rodgers and give him time, he can put the ball right where it needs to be, and there's lots of knuckleheads out there that can catch a well-thrown football most of the time.
Swisch
April 08, 2022 at 02:33 pm
It's hard to get around an enormous contract for $50 million per year, especially with a salary cap.
It seems logical to say that something has to give.
Plus, it's not like we're investing this huge amount in a guy with seven Super Bowl rings, who finds ways to win the big games.
Most of all, he has become a real jerk of wearisome antics and insufferable arrogance.
Is this cause for optimism?
I may overdo my comments about Rodgers, but it's because I see groveling before him as a tragedy that poisons a team I care about deeply.
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 02:45 pm
It’s not a one man game. Rodgers needs more to make that impact. He is going to have less almost certainly this year unless we win the rookie jackpot on a generational level.
It’s not pleasant to be pessimistic, but it’s not rational to escape it by ignoring all the contradictions that lie before us in plain sight.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 03:25 pm
IIRC, if AR retires after 2022, the cap should be fixable in one year. That $58M option bonus due in March of 2023 changes things in terms of dead money.
The history of rookie TEs ain't great. Perhaps rookie WRs really are more NFL ready. Fingers crossed. That said, Gute failing to trade the net of a late 4th to mid-5th rounder for Devonte Parker is a real head scratcher for me.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 04:39 pm
Maybe ditch the gross insinuations.
Are you seriously calling Coldworld illogical, or labeling him a pessimist? Really? Because it doesn’t jibe with your line of thinking?
I’ve seen a lot of this, my friend. You’ve been throwing a lot of underhand strikes of late… just sayin’… tact. Respect. We’re all different, but we’re all on the same side as Packers fans.
I really appreciate the different views here.
If you’re seriously calling anyone not on board with the BS that’s been going on illogical, or a pessimist… well you might want to check that too.
In my gut, I just don’t think much of the guy. Not thrilled in the least to have him on our team. That’s just me, and I’m seriously one of the most optimistic people you’ll ever meet.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 06:06 pm
I assume that there many players I would not like or respect if I knew them well enough to form an opinion. I definitely and really disliked Geronimo Allison, but penciled him in as the #3 WR. Not sure what my reaction would have been if Burfict or Suh had ever been on GB's roster. I came to mildly dislike Favre pretty early, and no later than 2004 I thought he was a POS. I still think he is an even bigger diva than AR. I think Favre's behavior after he left the team is utterly unforgivable on multiple levels.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 07:19 pm
You know it. Favre was as you describe. They’re not going to be a buncha choir boys, and that’s not what bothers me. There’s something else I’d just as soon not get into…
I feel strongly we’d be better off trading, gaining enormous assets, and giving the kid a proper, legitimate shot.
Johnblood27
April 08, 2022 at 05:42 pm
LH, Im bullish on the gbp. I root for the team to win in spite of my feelings towards individual players.
I am positive and hopeful that the future drafts will allow the gbp to remain competitive while the cap hits come hard and fast over the next 2-3 years, not only from AR, but all of the restructures will eat cap room that other more responsible teams will not have eat into the increased cap number.
That will result in gbp stars going for the bigger $$$ elsewhere and the pack filling holes with second-hand pickings. There will be some exceptions, but the overall roster will eventually feel the rolling of dollars into the future.
Those fiscal realities underlie my use of the term ravaged cap. Get it? Good.
The net result of all of this all-in restructures will hit when murphy is checking OUT. Do you really think a smart guy like Murphy doesn't think into future years and now with a mandatory retirement staring him in the face that he doesn't see that date as a goal line fior his influence on the team? Get it? Good.
Better off now than when murph came in? I don't know about better off. It seems a lot like the same. It was good following Harlan's retirement, it is good now. Murph oversaw some menaingful changes, Im not saying his entire term was a failure.
What I am saying is that the Rodgers sycophant act by the GBP front office is a bad look and has resulted in some policy decisions that i see as unfavorable for the franchise in the near future. I see murphs fingerprints all over those decisions. Get it? Good.
We're good.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 08:22 pm
Seriously. I’m a stockholder, season ticket holder, lifelong fan. What exactly did Mark Murphy do? For the positive? I struggle to see anything past this sledding hill…
Johnblood27
April 08, 2022 at 08:55 pm
The whole Titletown concept with all of the property acquisition.
That is no small feat.
It definitely pales in comparison to Harlan's tenure, however what Harlan did for the GBP is unequaled in history. He literally saved the franchise in an era when finances dwarfed anything Lambeau dealt with.
Murphy has not sucked by any means, but he was more of a placeholder than an innovator or a problem solver. Don't take for granted that a franchise cannot go backward, it can happen, but it didn't under Murphy.
His "take charge" reconstruction is a real regression and is extremely dangerous for the franchise IMO, but that remains to be seen and is not a fait accompli by any means at this point.
LambeauPlain
April 08, 2022 at 09:23 am
The All In philosophy will eventually get you to a Draft and Develop necessity thanks to the Cap Cage it creates. Trading away high draft picks further exacerbates this. Drafting and developing talented prospects on rookie deals helps teams escape from the Cap Cage.
Then add in your coaching staff to the equation. I am impressed the Packer staff has been adept teaching and coaching up young players.
I also think you have to look to your current roster alongside a given draft class. This draft is ideal for the Packers for potential starters, day one contributors, and quality depth.
WR is the only position group needing draft prospects for starting and game day roles. What a year to have such a loaded WR class!
Meanwhile OL, Edge, ILB, and DB are deep and players Gutey drafts here will be developed for quality depth. DL is not deep in the later rounds so there may be a reach here. All the more reason to have more picks this draft.
If Gutey trades picks, I hope he trades down and gets more. Trading the #28 with the Colts who has no first rounder for their #42 and #73 (Gutey may also have to throw in one of his 4th rounders to sweeten the deal) makes sense to me if the Colts want to play.
#22 and 5 picks to go shopping on day 2 would be "Draft and Develop".
Going to be a fascinating draft.
Ferrari-Driver
April 08, 2022 at 10:01 am
Nowadays in the NFL and free agency we have players holding out for higher salaries, but that just didn't start recently in sports. I followed baseball closely as a kid and admired the talent of Babe Ruth. One of the articles I read about him talked about some people in the press criticizing Babe Ruth for holding out for more money than the then President of the United States was making who at the time was Herbert Hoover. Babe responded with "I had a better year than the President". In the NFL, the salary cap does limit the amount of money which can be allocated to the players and the chore for Russ Ball and the Packers is to spread that total amount among the players to field the best possible team. TGR is our CheeseHead TV Russ Ball and keeps us in the know.
TarynsEyes
April 08, 2022 at 10:05 am
Those who support this 'all-in' mentality have me asking a question.
Are you in support of it to maintain the Division dominance or do you actually believe what has already failed twice will somehow become what it couldn't, a Super Bowl participant, less the winner?
I cannot help but feel that the Packers' version of 'all-in' is keeping as many of the losing cards you already lost with twice before. The hand the Packers are dealing themselves is a good hand but limited to its ability to win the Division pot, but not the one that matters most, again. The cost of another failed season will not allow new or old rebuys as the debt payment comes due.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 11:04 am
Agree. 100%. They continue to make the same mistakes expecting different results. That Band-Aid must come off.
Why not now, freeing up our future cap while gaining a ton of assets in a blockbuster draft day trade, with terms to be finalized after June 1st???
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 11:12 am
Not how I see it. I see it as falling just short and needing to improve a little. We're very close. A little improvement and some good luck and we have as good a shot as anybody this year.
Guam
April 08, 2022 at 11:57 am
I am trying to be as positive as you are Leatherhead, but I just have the feeling I have seen this movie before - three times and quite recently. I am having a hard time seeing different outcome with the same leader.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 01:10 pm
Every spin of the planet is a new day. Every trip around the sun is a new year. I think we're going to be good, I think we'll win the division. Ask me then how I think the playoffs will shake out.
I'm concerned about our leader, too, but that's beyond my control. I'd have gone a different direction, but this can certainly work. There are very few teams in the NFC right now who have a better chance of going to the Super Bowl than the Packers this year.
croatpackfan
April 08, 2022 at 04:51 pm
Look at Vegas prediction and where Packers are. I think last toime I checked they were 7th in the row with: 1. Bills, 2. KC, 3. Bengals, 4. Chargers, 5. Bucs, 6. LAR, 7. Packers, 8. Denver etc.
We saw how Vegas is rarely wrong with their predictions...
Coldworld
April 08, 2022 at 01:17 pm
We may have an improved D, though our D played at an unexpectedly high level in our loss. We should have a better ST. We have the same running attack, but we need to see if it’s used as much as it should be. We have a lot worse WR room. Even the best rookies won’t likely change that this year. This is at best stasis compared to last year. If the draft picks and any FA receivers don’t significantly outperform both reasonable individual expectations and the odds, this could get ugly by December.
TarynsEyes
April 08, 2022 at 12:23 pm
Falling short is a nice way to say lost. I'll take a stab and say that the vast majority of teams that fell short made a couple of 'significant' changes to their rosters to eliminate that recurrence of falling short.
What have the Packers done to significantly change that feeling?
Retain the same players?
Lose a couple of previously needed impact players to look better than they showed themselves to be when it counts?
Give their QB more money that necessitated the loss of impact players?
Where and what has the FO done to make this roster have better odds/chance to get to the SB other than the thinking, as you do, that winning the Division is the golden doorway to playoff success needed to get into the SB?
To those who have a high hope faith system, you're going to need to muster a lot more than previously with this team at the moment. This team needs a great day one play draft selection and more. The Division Title has become a joke as its value for the Packers is nil and has been proven too often to be true.
I hope for this team, but I keep it inside reality.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 01:14 pm
The mark of a champion isn't that they never fall, it's that they get up, and Division titles will never be a joke to me. It's value to the Packers is that it gets them into the playoffs with a home playoff game, same as it's value is to every other team in the league. Even though it doesn't guarantee a victory, it's not like it has no value.
croatpackfan
April 08, 2022 at 05:19 pm
Well, Packers tried 11th time, rised up and fail again. They aged on important positions (like QB and K), and you are expecting them to be better this time?
I say Davante left Packers because he knew that winning it all with AR is desperate and futile try. Because it is not possible he decided to go to play with his friend for same money (or even less by some reports) offered by Packers. Jaire demands huge contract, because he knows they will not be able to win all, so, as he is young he wants to secure his future now. We also saw that Packers tried to negotiate with MVS and failed, ESB left the Packers, Lazard is RFA, so he needed to stay, there is 6 ERFA Yosh Nijman, Krys Barnes, Malik Taylor, Dominique Dafney, Randy Ramsey and Jake Hanson. Other players are on the contract. Tonyan is injured and his best opportunity is to stay with Packers.
I realy do not see logic in your claim that because Packers get up every season justify paying aging pr*ck $ 50 mill? I do not understand...
I say 99.9% here really cares about Packers. And that is the reason many of us warning others that situation is at least strange and illogical, and that it will cost Packers in the nearest future...
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 12:37 pm
Yeah, under normal circumstances, you would be correct. I question whether we find ourselves there.
I’m reminded of John Madden’s furious quest to get to the Super Bowl, to have the chance at winning it, and the glory he realized in maintaining that very same attitude, Leatherhead. Constantly losing in AFCC opportunities, saying unwaveringly, “We’re right there!”
I want that, but, we have a far more selfish player at QB than Kenny Stabler. We don’t have Fred Biletnikoff, Cliff Branch, Dave Casper, Willie Brown…
I’m just trying really hard to be discerning regarding our real chances.
Hell, I think we can win it, if we just run the freaking rock. He’s proven himself UNWILLING to hand it off and let Jones & Dillon have the glory. Pisses me off, really, as it did when we also had Jamaal Williams.
At what point don’t you just call it, say “I’ve had enough,” and trade him? His trade value is peaking, and about to drop significantly.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 10:02 am
When we realized that keeping him meant relying on rookies and redemption project receivers we should have moved on. That wad the time to trade him and get picks. Instead we chose the name and past over rationality and the make up of the roster. With that we created the ludicrous imbalance in this roster and much pain for the future. The ideal time to trade had passed, but recognition of that error would be a step to accelerating recovery at least.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 01:21 pm
Personally, I think that if Rodgers doesn't play real well this year that he'll hang it up at the end of the season.
He's our QB for 2022. I'd have gone a different way, but I can adapt. He didn't get traded. He doesn't lead in big games. He's expensive. I get all that, it's water under the bridge, and when I do a realistic assessment of the team at this point I think we have the best HC and QB in the division, the best backfield in the division, the best defense in the division.
Did you ever have a girlfriend when you were young that you dumped because she didn't put out? That's what a lot of this Rodgers-knocking sounds like to me. I mean, it's like "I want what I want, and if I can't get it from you, then I'll get it from someplace else". Am I off target here, or is this analogous in any way?
Ferrari-Driver
April 08, 2022 at 01:31 pm
Leatherhead "Did you ever have a girlfriend when you were young that you dumped...?" I don't recall that happening too often, but I've been dumped a few times.
TarynsEyes
April 08, 2022 at 02:28 pm
"and when I do a realistic assessment of the team at this point I think we have the best HC and QB in the division, the best backfield in the division, the best defense in the division."
This is your problem LH, you're not looking at the team's total talent in comparison to teams outside of the Division, and why Division Titles are your and others' safe place when failure to achieve more creeps into your world of hope.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 03:11 pm
Teams outside the division don't concern me that much.
First, in the AFC, I only have to be concerned about 1, and that's if I make the Super Bowl.
We play two games at home and two on the road. Last year, we beat the Bengals, Steelers, Browns, and Ravens. So I guess we compared OK to them as far as "total talent"
In the NFC, we beat LA, SF, Seattle and AZ. So I guess we compare OK to them. We beat everybody who came to Green Bay, so I gues our "total talent" was OK.
So don't sit there and say "there's your problem". I think I have a pretty good understanding of how the organization, team, and talent level of the Packers compares to other teams in the league.
As far as safe places......sheeeesh. First base is safe, but you have to get there before you score any runs. Winning a significant majority of your regular season games is a requirement if you want to play for the trophy.
If you choose to be unhappy,fine, but that's not my problem.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 05:05 pm
First, your comment brought back some fond memories. Is that situation analogous? Cooperation or lack thereof does not seem to have been a factor in my decision to dump the few I dumped. So, I would say if I liked them enough it definitely was not a factor.
So, I think folks no longer give AR the benefit of the doubt. They think back on 2011, 2014, 2016 (though I think that would have been a super-human effort as that was the worst team to reach a conference championship game that I can recall) plus 2021 if not also 2020. They see that AR as the unchanged variable, the constant. I still give him the benefit of the doubt when he is on the field if not when he is off the field. A decent argument can be made in both directions.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 10:07 am
It’s not just AR. It’s the AR + MLF tandem. LaFleur is struggling as a coach generally, consistently making and often repeating critical mistakes, but he’s completely failed to ‘manage’ Rodgers effectively on the field. With those two the sun is less than the parts.
Rarescope
April 08, 2022 at 11:24 pm
Here you go again with the AR won’t run the rock mindset you’ve sold yourself into and here I go again having to point you to the article on this very website stating that AR chose run on 80% of the RPO plays last year.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 09:27 pm
(“Falling short and needing to improve a little.”) x 11 = GTFO
Rarescope
April 08, 2022 at 11:26 pm
Greengold I like your draft article comments but your super bowl or bust attitude is getting a little tiresome. You don’t like AR, we get it. Why don’t you go win a super bowl if you think it’s so easy?
greengold
April 09, 2022 at 07:48 am
I can appreciate that. My point is his stated goal last Spring was: “Win MVP.”
I’m not a fan of someone who takes over my team in order to achieve his own personal goals. He doesn’t hand the ball off because it decreases his opportunities to pass. He won’t pass to a WR who might be covered to give that WR an opportunity to win a contested catch, fearing INT.
You had to have seen the favoritism, throwing to Davante only, for an entire 3 Quarters, ignoring wide open receivers? No other WR targeted in that span.
(wtf was that anyway, if it wasn’t hijacking team interests for personal agenda?)
He won’t throw to young receivers, giving them a chance to contribute, to develop. Why? “Trust,” or Completion % stats?
Do you feel you’ve seen Matt LaFleur’s system in full effect?
****A lot of people don’t know this, but the #1 indicator of which team will lose a football game, statistically, is not INTs or TOs. It’s SACKS TAKEN. The team that takes the most sacks is the team - most likely - to lose a football game. I didn’t learn of this until recently, myself.
Guess who oftentimes won’t give his WR an opportunity to make a play, and will instead throw it away or take a sack?
A Quarterback’s responsibilities #1 are to - lead - the offense. Not, “Well, if I do my job and win MVP, it’s not my fault if we didn’t win the Super Bowl.”
Instead, he sucks the “ME” out of TEAM, leaving us where we’re AT.
I don’t want STAT PADDING. Sorry, I want us to be winning LOMBARDI TROPHIES.
Joe Montana wasn’t in it for MVP trophies. Neither was Terry Bradshaw, neither was Troy Aikman, Ben Roethesberger and neither was Tom Brady.
20 LOMBARDI TROPHIES between them, 3 MVPs combined. Aaron Rodgers 1 Super Bowl win, 4 MVPs.
Thanks for the heads-up, Rarescope. I really just try my best to contribute, have fun and share info with all of my friends here, yourself included. My apologies if my stressing some points becomes overbearing. Truth is, it’s been the same problems every year for over a decade. I’ll leave it at that.
Oppy
April 08, 2022 at 11:13 am
The sentiment among some fans is 'Go all in now, don't worry about the future- it will all be worth it if we win the superbowl!'
The typical cautionary response is, 'there's no guarantee you win the superbowl, and if you don't, will it have been worth it?'
My cautionary response is this: Even if you win a superbowl, I think a lot of fans are going to be very upset with watching a shell-of-its-former-self team struggling to make .500 on the season for 3-5 years due to a poorly managed cap that restricts personnel decisions to constantly having to pick the best of a many poor options in an attempt to hold together a barely passable NFL roster.
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 11:55 am
Agreed.
It’s going to be catastrophic should this fail. I don’t like the set-up, nor the odds for any kind of success keeping 12 here. I just don’t.
Rip the Band-Aid off. Move him in trade. Right this listing ship.
Oppy
April 08, 2022 at 01:09 pm
There probably isn't a viable trade partner anymore. I think the teams who wanted a "win now" QB have made their moves already. I think that window is gone.
dobber
April 08, 2022 at 12:33 pm
That's the key bit: people can SAY they're OK with the plan, but their skins still get awful thin and they chafe miserably when the piper's getting paid. The likelihood that after a couple 4-6 win seasons people will still be smiling and saying, "yeah, but we won it all in 2022-3," is pretty low.
Oppy
April 08, 2022 at 01:04 pm
Yup.
Winning the superbowl is great and a fantastic rush of emotion that, as a fan, you ride for a few months. It's a great memory. That's the reality- it's not a long-lasting event, it doesn't make you feel any better the following seasons if your team struggles and loses games. It doesn't console you when you watch helplessly as your team loses young, talented players to free agency.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 05:26 pm
IDK. There really isn't much history of winning a SB and then having 4 to 6 win seasons. There is some history of not winning a SB and then having 4-6 win seasons. That results in changes unless there is some obvious reason like AR getting hurt.
Back to back 10-6 records with Favre got Sherman demoted as GM, TT brought in, and then a 4-12 year got Sherman fired as a coach (which I am sure didn't bother TT too much). 6 wins in 2008 but GB had the 5th ranked offense. Hence Raji and the gamble to get CM3 in the 2009 draft.
Oppy
April 09, 2022 at 12:03 am
TGR,
It's not winning the SB that results in 4-6 win seasons.
It's the fact this team is trying to make a last ditch run at a SB by holding together a team by paying for it with future cap hits.
The proverbial can is being kicked 2-4 years down the road.. Right when Rodgers will be leaving. Right when anyone we pick up this year will be reaching their second contracts. Right when we're trying to transition to a new guard.
IMO, this team was already through more than a 50% rebuild. This team was rebuilt and the contracts were structured for a new, young QB to be leading this team. That new, young QB would have been on a first contract, transitioning to a second contract. Now they have switched gears and sold the future to hold on to Rodgers. Now the team doesn't have as much cap space to continue to build the new, young core of the future. It's not only been delayed, but will be hindered, due to handling of the cap to try to keep a team together for Rodgers.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 09, 2022 at 07:52 am
Oh, I understand that part.
I just assume that there will be some slack given to a GM if that GM just won a super bowl while he is busy holding fire sales and losing veterans right and left for a year or two after AR leaves. But there isn't a lot of that kind of history to look back upon.
We don't disagree too much. When I tried to construct a contract for AR at $37M AAV, and then $40M, I hated them. I concluded that the stars had aligned: he should have a lot of value and it was time to trade him. The FO decided otherwise.
Coldworld
April 09, 2022 at 10:36 am
Looking at things, the roster and other moves suggest the FO planned to move on. Murphy presumably, apparently with LaFleur in agreement, caused that to change, leaving us with a Jekyl and Hyde cap structure and roster.
The response from many has been to refuse to see that and claim this is “all in” and refute years of accepted logic on the chances of draft success and if that coming in year one. This isn’t an all in team, it’s one that paid 50million for a QB despite having only one proven full time receiver it could keep and no cap money to spend.
That’s just a very expensive mess not the basis for Super Bowl success. It’s frightening how many hoops people are jumping through to avoid seeing that. That phenomenon generally acts as a huge accelerant when results expose the truth. The best thing to root for this year is a draft that will carry us through the next three years. Ironically, we will now probably be picking more for high floor types to help now and passing on upside.
The best chance of us winning it all from here soonest would have been to trade Rodgers. That’s not saying we’d have a better chance this year, but, blind optimism aside, the difference between minimal and infinitesimal is not worth lamenting. Stop chasing the past.
This is a relationship both parties knew (or should have) in their hearts was past its second by date, which is why it took so long to publicly extend, but both had reasons to hang on to. In the end Rodgers took money and familiarity over a realistic roster and WRs. After all that he came back knowing the odds are strong that he will have the weakest WR corps of his career for the encore last dance. He at least gets paid heavily.
Swisch
April 08, 2022 at 02:25 pm
Even if the Packers win the Super Bowl with arrogant Rodgers, it wouldn't be satisfying to me.
I don't like the integrity of the Packers being sold out for a jerk under any circumstances.
***
Is it worth it going out with the prettiest girl if she treats you like dirt -- or just doesn't show any real interest in you, and is all about herself?
Okay, so you look good taking her to the prom. Is it really an enjoyable event, though? You lavish her with gifts to keep her around, but how long will the finances hold up?
Is it really a good life in sham relationships of convenience and supposedly getting ahead, or is this the way of misery?
Does character count at all as far as a disagreeable egotist?
Does pride matter, as in our own self-respect and the dignity of the Packers?
LLCHESTY
April 08, 2022 at 11:22 am
I know if I was the Jags GM I would be trying to trade out of that number 1 spot even though I might get less because it isn't a QB heavy year. Try to trade down two or three times into the 15-20 range and pick up as many 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounders as I could get. You have the QB already(if you don't you're fired anyway) on a talent poor team. Get as many swings as you can where the draft is deep. Adding depth in FA is idiocy. That's to plug one or two holes not half a dozen.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 01:48 pm
Me too. Those really high picks are dangerous, because if you whiff on a guy like Mandarich, or Ryan Leaf, or whoever, it hurts your team for a couple of years. IMO, better to spread the risk out a little bit if you can rather than risking so much on a guy like Carson Wentz, for example.
If you google "The Loser's Curse", it'll direct you to an analysis that showed those early picks are actually a disadvantage because you can make bigger mistakes.
Greengold, and others, have really opened my eyes up to how many really good players are still going to be available in the 4th round. I mean, most of them would make our active game list.
Cartwright
April 08, 2022 at 11:25 am
To help Aaron Rodgers in the remaining years he has left the Packers will do their version of all in with the 11 picks they have and draft 11 wide receivers. Seriously though, I can see 2 or 3 WR's in row right off the bat if who they want is still on the board. GPG
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 01:46 pm
All-in is a perfectly reasonable philosophy at the moment.
It will be followed by draft and develop. It is almost inevitable.
Wash, rinse, repeat. If the team has a good GM and coaches, it will work.
Lamenting the death of "draft and develop" in GB now is foolish. Yes, I was in the trade AR camp just last month. I think the stars aligned, so I am assuming that AR was worth three first round picks plus something more. I would have pulled that trigger. Now, If teams even think he might be serious about retiring, then his trade value was much less than many think.
Instead, the Packers gave AR a huge contract. Yes, I think AR was too greedy. Yes, I think AR knew Adams was leaving. Given that decision, the rest flows: go truly all-in. Trying to keep one foot in the present and the other in the future seems self-defeating to me.
Leatherhead
April 08, 2022 at 02:07 pm
Water under the bridge, it is what it is, and what it is, is , Rodgers is our QB for 2022. What we have is more important than what we don't.
Look, even Jacksonville should be all in for 2022, but all-in for them is different than being all-in for the Packers. For the Packers, IMO, as I've stated earlier, that has to involve a couple of things, and chief among these are ensuring that Rodgers has protection and time to do his job. I don't see any path to the Super Bowl in 2022 that doesn't involve him being healthy and playing well.
Secondly, you have to give him targets to throw at. He's a pretty accurate thrower and he can throw the ball where he wants to. I think people are going to be surprised at the storyline of young WRs with the ball in their hands.
I think the Packers will move aggressively in the draft. In fact, I think it's possible for the Packers to spend 7 picks on guys (that's through 140 in the 4th round) on offensive players that would ALL make the 53 man squad.
I'm a fan of balance, and I'm a born defender, but to me, that's what you do if you're going all in. You freakin' load up the offense as much as you can. We'll play what we have on defense and hope we get a UDFA or something that can help, but we'll expect the offense to carry the load.
Rodgers will protect the ball. The RBs will be more than half of the offense, via pass and run. Lazard, Cobb, Amari, Deguara will be joined by some rookies who'll each get several opportunities each game.
This is a plan that will work.
BirdDogUni
April 08, 2022 at 02:14 pm
The present is here and the future is coming. (Whether we like it or not.)
In the near future, we have 11 draft picks. I fear Gutey will move around most unnecessarily in the upcoming draft and waste picks. I also expect him to trade down, gain picks, and then move up unnecessarily as well. (It's just what Gutey feels he needs to do to earn his paycheck I guess...)
In 20 days, the draft will be here and it will be the present, not the future. I expect some picks for the present and some for the future. You can't help but to do both when you're this close.
The good part about Gutey, is he actually takes the work after the draft very seriously, so he will keep grinding no matter how the draft turns out. Pro personnel department will be working overtime after the draft, to find those guys that might be able to fill holes not filled by the draft.
My favorite time of year is the next 20 days. It's sad to me, but I don't think there is any way Gutey drafts 11 players in this draft without trading or making some moves. No idea what they will be, but I feel he will have his guys that he's going to target come hell-or-high-water, and we'll just have to live with those choices.
Just pray they are good choices for the 2022 Packers.
Thegreatreynoldo
April 08, 2022 at 03:41 pm
GB seems to have a good pro personnel department. The free agents they signed and their in-season pick-ups have been consistently above average. I strongly agree that the FO will keep grinding even after the draft.
BirdDogUni
April 08, 2022 at 04:16 pm
Packers should be "All-In" every year. The goal should be the Super Bowl every year, but not at the expense of the team's future or financial ruin.
Rumor is Deebo scrubbed his social media accounts of the 9'ers. Might be nothing, but would love to see trouble in SF... ; )
Going to be a long 20 days until the draft, but should also be fun. Let's just hope Gutey doesn't screw it up! : P
greengold
April 08, 2022 at 04:33 pm
Yeah, I’d say their personnel dept. as a whole is pretty damned good. Pro and College.
I’m really looking forward to seeing what Amari Rodgers, Shemar Jean-Charles and Kylin Hill do this year, as success with any of these 3 players will lend even more credence to them. Stokes, Myers, Newman…
croatpackfan
April 08, 2022 at 05:29 pm
not all of them - Yiadom e. g.
croatpackfan
April 08, 2022 at 05:28 pm
TGR, Coldworld logical conclusion is that Packers are not all in this season (they might tried to be!) and they are building roster for post Diva time. That gave me an idea that maybe AR was looking for trade, because he knew Davante would go to Riders and he was not able to find trade partner under his conditions. And he was pushed to come back to Packers, if he wanted to play another season or two and take huge money for his pocket.
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