We find ourselves at the end of all things. Or, at least, the end of this specific series. Today, we build out the low red zone section of our call sheet, then look at where we ended up on the whole.

To the matter at hand.

The low red zone is the area between the goal line and the 10 yard line. The Packers averaged 3.9 trips to the low red zone per game, 14th in the league.

How good were they are in this area? I don’t think I need to tell you - the informed fan - that they were not good. They scored a TD on 25.8% of their plays in this area, which was 29th in the league. They somehow found themselves behind the Texans. The Texans! That’s not great. They were also 29th in yards per attempt (1.3 YPA), so maybe they get points for consistency? (They do not, in fact, get points for consistency.)

They did have some things that worked, so we’re going to lean into those in this section. When we’re building out this section, I’m not really concerned with YPA. We’re going to focus on TD Rate. You ready? I’m ready.

Passes

Mesh (1, 4.0 YPA)

Okay, I’ll admit that the numbers aren’t great. Frankly, the numbers on Mesh haven’t been good for a couple years now. But if I’m building a call sheet and looking towards the future, buddy, it’s going to have Mesh on it, and it’s certainly going to have Mesh in the low red zone.

You can describe the concept in a number of different ways. For me, it’s a concept that is built around chaos. At the heart of Mesh are two drag routes running at each other and crossing in front of the quarterback. That act is the chaos creator, and that goes double for the low red zone where defensive bodies are packed in tighter. You’re looking for those routes to act as a natural rub against man, or cause confusion against zone. 

All the other routes are up for grabs. Down in this area, you’re looking to cause collisions and false steps, then take advantage of those things. Create the chaos then thrive in it.

The Packers ran it once in the low red zone this year, and they would have gotten away with it if not for that meddling turf monster.

If Lazard was able to push another 1 foot up the field or the ball was thrown to Watson’s outside shoulder, maybe this ends a little differently.

But don’t let the end result of that one play take away the potential for what this concept can give you in the low red zone. You could have your wide motion man run this little half-motion/arrow route to take advantage of the defense switching assignments on the motion.

The Eagles had a tendency to rotate coverage on that motion side, something that the Chiefs took advantage of in a pretty big game.

Or you could run Mesh from bunch, send all the receivers across the field then leak the RB across the face of the QB and out the trips side.

My main point is that Mesh can be a powerful concept run a number of different ways. With the weapons the Packers have, they could have a lot of fun with it this year.

TE Release (3, 1.0 YPA, 2 TDs)

I’m always a sucker for this kind of play, especially in a situation where the defense is forced to bite a little harder on play action than they might in other areas and situations. It plays off the defense's expectations and how they’re forced to play in the moment. They’re looking for the run, so sell the run hard. That includes having your TE with a nice initial block, then throwing that man away and releasing into the wide open freedom of the end zone.

Runs

Inside Zone (4, 1.8 YPA, 1 TD)

Sometimes you want a well-designed run. Something so beautiful that poets will be moved to tears and will sow the seeds of world peace.

But sometimes? Man, sometimes you just want to take a mass of humanity and have it drive at the same point until the referee lifts his arms in a triumphant signal.

This is absolutely the latter. Although maybe a few poets will still be moved to tears.

Motion in an extra man to get a little extra heft at the point of attack if you need to. It doesn’t already need to be tricky: it just needs to get the job done. As much as I love a good power run, a more aggressive front in this area can lead to a defensive lineman slicing through a spot where a puller just vacated and blowing up the run in the backfield. If this offensive line is better out of the gate this year, then I maybe consider it. But, for now, I’m leaning on Inside Zone.

Although, if you go in feeling pretty good about the offensive line, I wouldn’t be mad at this one-man pulling/lead concept (but good luck getting one of the current TEs on the roster to hold the point of attack like Big Dog).

RPOs

Inside Zone/Bubble (3, 4.7 YPA, 2 TDs)

This RPO combo did not treat the Packers well this year, but it did nicely for them in the low red zone.

This is a pre-snap read that depends on how the defense is aligned to the pass side. If the Packers have a numbers advantage or a leverage advantage to the pass side, they’ll throw it. If they don’t have either of those things, they’ll hand it off. 

This is a concept that they used heavily over the last few years, but it finally fell off a cliff this year. That was mainly due to the loss of Davante Adams, as this is a concept that can rely on the receiver to be able to make a man miss in space (although, to be fair, it was on life support even in Adams’ last season in Green Bay). The Packers leaned on this a little too heavy and also didn’t have the personnel for this to be consistently effective, so it didn’t hold up between the 20s.

But down in the low red zone? It’s perfect. You’re just looking for that little edge to get a man open momentarily. This allows the offense to either take advantage of numbers/leverage in the passing game or run into a light box.

A massive thank you to every person who read even one of these entries this season. If you want to read them again - or read them for the first time - I’ve gathered the links below.

Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & long
2nd & medium
2nd & short
3rd & long
3rd & medium
3rd & short
4th & short
Explosives
High Red Zone

This was the first time I’ve tried doing this exact thing, and I think it worked out okay. For me, it was a fun way to review some things that worked during the season, but in a way that’s a little different from what I usually do. It certainly opened my eyes a bit in terms of how many times a team finds itself in certain situations every game and how that can impact what you’re able to call. It’s something I’ve read about a number of times, but it’s my first time going through the exercise and I learned a lot.

It was also striking - once again - how numbers don’t tell the whole story. There were numerous times through this exercise where I had my section all filled out, then had to rework it due to what the film was showing. A concept looked good on the spreadsheet, but 75% of the successful plays were due to an extended play or a coverage bust or something else you can’t count on repeating.

I really hope this has been half as interesting for you all as it has been for me.

I'm not sure what I'll be doing in this space for the rest of the offseason, but I'll be trying to think of something interesting and fun. I'll likely go underground for at least a couple weeks, as I've got some NFL-wide stuff I'll be working on that will take a bit of time. So we'll see!

To play us out, here is our completed call sheet.

A note about that last little section. You'll sometimes see coaches have something written on their call sheet: usually in the margins. Something that means something to them. Maybe it's something to get them back on track when it feels like they're spinning a bit. Mine is from the closing pages of JD Salinger's Franny & Zooey. To me, that little phrase is simply a reminder to treat every person and every situation with respect. If the thought is that I'd be using a call sheet in an actual game, then that means there would be people who would be looking at me and my actions. It is a reminder that whatever I do, I want those actions to reflect who I am, or at least who I'd like to be. 

Albums listened to: The Clash - London Calling; Bat For Lashes - Two Suns; Chris Staples - Cloud Souvenirs; Amy Stroup - Since Frank; The Utopiates - The Sun Also Rises, Radiohead - OK Computer