Sunday vs Broncos could leave '20 Draft Class down to one.

Could Week 2 of the Preseason all but wipe out Gutekunst's 3rd Draft?

 

Week 2 of the NFL Preseason and the Packers have come out to a "hot" 1-0 start, in a rematch of 2023 regular season opponents, the resurgent Denver Broncos await, where the Packers left in bitter defeat.

With the Packers looking to sit the starters, we'll likely see a heavy dose of key role players in the starting lineup, with the guys "on the bubble" as their loyal sidekicks. One such player that many anticipate will be in for an extended period is the lovable A.J. Dillon.

With the 3-game preseason format that was instituted back in 2021, we've seen less and less of household names on gameday, with all but a few of their meaningful reps taken on the practice field. Much like the NBA, the preseason in the NFL has come to be little more than live-fire tryouts for players who are less assured a roster spot once the games count in the fall.

I know A.J.'s tired of the "keyboard warriors", but I hate to say that they should feel somewhat justified because numbers don't lie. Dillon's had a tough go of it lately, coming off a season where he averaged a measly 3.4 yards per carry. Granted, I get that it was Jordan Love's first season and opposing defenses may have been more keen on stopping Aaron Jones, but the oft-injured former Packer was still able to put together a more than respectable 4.6 yards per carry resume. 

But this article isn't just about A.J., it's also about the guy who selected him...among others. Dillon was 1 of 9 selections by what should have been a seasoned Brian Gutekunst at GM, but just 5 seasons later, only Dillon and franchise quarterback Jordan Love remain. Whether Dillon stays or goes, what does that say about the class overall? Is it still a win? With Love inked up for the long haul, I'd say yes, and if Love one day leads the Packers to another Lombardi Trophy or multiple, it was an absolute home run. 

Whether you agree, disagree, or abstain, what I will continue to admire (and you should too) about Gutekunst is that he doesn't fall in love with his picks (which I need to do if my draft board is to get any better). If things aren't panning out, Brian is quick to attack the dilemma in a variety of new ways; and he did just that by signing Josh Jacobs and drafting Marshawn Lloyd, while bringing in a host of UFAs to throw their hat in the ring. What always gets me to crack a smile in particular is how he typically loves to start with a scalpel before bringing out the battle axe. 2023's Emmanuel Wilson was last year's "scalpel" and boy was that pickup a surgical one last preseason. With the departure of Jones, Gutekunst brought out the "axe" in signing Jacobs and drafting Lloyd. For the aforementioned Dillon, it may feel like more of a guillotine right now.

Before I wrote this article, I looked at some of A.J.'s highlights back at Boston College, and honestly, I see the same player. The high pad level that Ben Sirmans mentions was there back then, and it's still here today. The tenacity that we thought we'd get, never existed. I'm not sure what the projection was, but it doesn't seem like the project ever truly projected, which explains why Dillon's YPC average has declined every year. Offensive lines be damned, while I know A.J. is at his best with a full head of steam, in the NFL he needs to get comfortable with sometimes having to boil his own kettle.

Emmanuel Wilson and newly inked Nate McCrary (who's no stranger to Lambeau) will be chomping at the bit to get their carries too this weekend. And regardless of who is upfront blocking, if Dillon gets upstaged by the relative newcomers, Gutekunst may only have Jordan Love to hang his hat on for 2020....and maybe that's enough (it probably is). He won't even lose sleep over it.

We'll likely find out more about Dillon's future and other Packers preseason favorites in the aftermath of Packers x Broncos which kicks off this Sunday at 7 pm Central.

 

#GPG

 

 

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__________________________

Joseph has been an avid fan of the Green Bay Packers since 1997, citing an affinity for dairy products during his childhood and his favorite color, green. Born in Jacksonville, FL, Joseph currently is an Active Duty servicemember in the U.S. Armed Forces. Joseph considers himself a lifelong fan of the game of football, competing since his youth well into adulthood. When it comes to the Pack, Joseph is particularly impassioned about the NFL Draft and collegiate scouting process, and will contribute regularly on CHTV.com leading to that year's upcoming Draft. You can follow him on Twitter at @joeyreyallday.

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Comments (46)

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Leatherhead's picture

August 16, 2024 at 04:21 pm

You aren't even trying to tell the whole story here. You're fine pointing out the 3.4 ypc from last year, but it would have been nice to factor in his yards receiving, and now we're at 4.2. Then you could have mentioned he was one of our yards from scrimmage leaders. And, of course, he doesn't turn the ball over.

There's a lot more to the RB position than running with a football.

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Coldworld's picture

August 16, 2024 at 05:08 pm

Dillon is a decent check down option. He’s got limited catch radius and doesn’t run a full tree. Thats largely it therefore. We don’t have a stone handed RB in the mix. I’m not sure his catching significantly distinguishes him from any other back in this competition.

Dillon benefitted from the Packers occasionally having him leak out into space last year and that lead to a higher ypc than the norm using the element of surprise to get him against DBs. Last year, 10.1, which is why the distortion occurs. More ypc than Aaron Jones, who is a much more versatile catcher. Jones had more receiving yards despite playing in a fraction of the games and a lesser YPC. Jacobs had more catches and yards in less games as well.

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Bitternotsour's picture

August 16, 2024 at 05:14 pm

While there is a certainly a lot more to the running back position than running with a football, I would hope you'd agree that running with the football is the primary job. While I'm a fan of AJ, he is somewhat wanting in the primary job. Go back to the mantra, younger, faster, cheaper.

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splitpea1's picture

August 16, 2024 at 05:34 pm

Well and concisely stated.

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dblbogey's picture

August 16, 2024 at 05:51 pm

They expected AJ to be a pile moving power back, but he really hasn't been. I guess that's due to his upright running style, because with quads like his he should show more strength. Picked in the 2nd round but generally projected as a 4-5th rounder. He's been far from a bust but he's not a power back, and isn't a fast or elusive back. Barring injury I'm thinking they only keep Jacobs, the rookie and Wilson. Love AJ, but life goes on.

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Leatherhead's picture

August 16, 2024 at 06:49 pm

BNS.....for a long time now in Green Bay, the criteria for the RB spot is a guy who

1) Is available
2) Protects the Ball
3) Can catch the ball out of the backfield
4) Is assignment sure and will pick up blitzes.

5) Exceptional runner.

I think Dillon is, and has been, a very good #2 RB for the Packers. He has stayed healthy and hasn't turned it over and he's caught passes and protected the QB against blitzes. I don't want him to be our #1 guy, but I'm happy with him as the #2 guy.

Now, if Jacobs gets hurt, I'd go ahead and start Lloyd and let Dillon be the #2 back. Dillon is pretty cheap, and he's in his prime of 26-27. I don't expect he'll be back next year, he will certainly help us this year.

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Bitternotsour's picture

August 16, 2024 at 07:10 pm

I'm not necessarily disagreeing (though I'd quibble about that order of import), but would point to my last words. Younger, faster, cheaper.

I try not to hold any player too closely. This is not to say I don't have favorites, just that roster churn is essentially a 30% proposition. I really liked Aaron Jones, now he is a distant memory. As the immortal Crash Davis advises, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, and sometimes it rains...

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RobinsonDavis's picture

August 17, 2024 at 10:36 am

Although we may quibble with the order, Leatherhead nails the objectives defined by LaFleur and team. For me, you can move #4 closer to #1...No Block, No Rock! Better stated, if you wish to see the field for this team, you have to excel at blocking. Which brings up the next point, do we really know anything about Lloyd improving his blocking?

For that matter, Wilson's game day tape is minimal, too, with Patrick Taylor supplanting him for 3rd back duties, despite being cut last year. I love Emanuel Wilson, but he needs to demonstrate CONSISTENTLY, his abilities in all phases of the game. Although everybody recognized his creativeness on a couple of runs in the Browns game, what also drew my attention, was his willingness to get low at the line of scrimmage, and gain positive yards. He hit the line quick and hard, with no juking, when required.

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Coldworld's picture

August 18, 2024 at 08:47 am

I’m not sure that it’s true that Wilson was supplanted by Taylor. Wilson injured his shoulder when it looked like he’d overtaken Dillon. Prior to that LaFleur had emphasized that, while he had flashed in protection, LaFleur needed to see more in practice before Wilson got more snaps. That looked to have been achieved but then there was a freak sideline collision. He was then out till the playoffs.

The great majority of Taylor’s snaps were in the second half of the season when Wilson was out and Jones was out or on limited snap count. Once Jones was healthy, he was both our best threat and protector. Dillon was neither.

We saw Wilson return to get some snaps in the playoffs as well, which suggests on going need for more offensive options was felt. Unfortunately, he didn’t look to be the same player as per-injury. It may well be that which led to doubt about whether he would be this year. So far, he looks back in terms of burst and physicality.

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Mister Chievous's picture

August 17, 2024 at 09:14 am

Wilson seems to have more potential than Dillon. hate to see Dillon get cut after all the work he put into reshaping his body. I think we can all agree that Dillon will have to show something in these next two pre-season games.

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JosephR's picture

August 16, 2024 at 05:58 pm

The "whole story" for me is that since his rookie season, his YPC average has decreased every year.

2020 - 5.3
2021 - 4.3
2022 - 4.1
2023 - 3.4

What's the excuse then?

Dillon has shown value in other ways and he does not tun the ball over, which has likely prolonged his stay in Wisconsin. But his primary job, the job Gutekunst selected him for in the 2nd Round, leaves much to be desired lately.

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dobber's picture

August 17, 2024 at 12:39 pm

The analysis on Dillon's security is a tough one. He doesn't play special teams (which I think he really needs to embrace), but figures into the offense in several ways. Some have argued that his limited snaps against Cleveland--even after Lloyd got hurt--might point to him being relatively safe.

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Coldworld's picture

August 18, 2024 at 09:02 am

Patrick Taylor was at least as good a protector as Dillon. Yet he was never deemed a threat offensively and thus bounced around on our PS and looks to be likely to be waived again by the 49ers this year.

LaFleur never really gave him an opportunity to run the ball seriously outside of times where we were running the clock in obvious running situations. Despite that, Taylor ran for a full yard longer per attempt than Dillon last year, 32 carries for 141 yards (4.4 average) to go along with 11 receptions for 49 yards, mostly emergency check downs.

By all accounts Taylor is expected to waived by the 49ers and looking for another team or PS squad. That should give some perspective on Dillon in league not fan terms. Dillon’s 10.1 ypc last year was a direct result of scheming him open in space, not electric burst. Even with it he accounted for less yards than Jones achieved in a fraction of the games, which should indicate that there are limitations to his passing game utility.

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WestCoastPackerBacker's picture

August 16, 2024 at 05:34 pm

This is all premature. With the rookie draft pick injured, one of the UDFA pickups injured and LaFleur saying he wanted a RB committee, Dillon is a cheap insurance policy until more talent develops or drops into their lap (such as Rasul Douglas). Dillon is the only guy with extensive experience in the offense, so getting rid of him now would really leave them thin. LaFleur has already suggested the last year's preseason darling Wilson needs to get all phases of the position down consistently, so they're not going to rely on him to pass block for the $200M man. Dillon may be pedestrian, but he's still potentially valuable to the team in a 17 game season.

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JosephR's picture

August 16, 2024 at 06:01 pm

RB has the fastest translation in the game usually, and Josh Jacobs is 1 year older than Dillon. I don't think we can use the elder statesman alibi but for so long. Dillon and Wilson will probably split carries almost evenly I imagine this weekend, or they might give Wilson the lion's share to see if he can protect Pratt, if he shows some real promise, that could leave Dillon out in the cold.

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Swisch's picture

August 16, 2024 at 06:23 pm

The reality does seem to be that A. J. has not become the battering ram we had hoped for to consistently get the tough yards for first downs and touchdowns, but I'm still holding out hope he somehow finds a way on Sunday to smash back some defenders.

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TarynsEyes's picture

August 16, 2024 at 09:57 pm

"I'm not sure what the projection was, but it doesn't seem like the project ever truly projected"

You, possibly, and many others seen a projection based on his tree stump thighs. I doubt, if the many even knew of him to look at his film before being selected, but simply fell in love when seeing his legs, those legs that can't be used properly because he gets high just before contact. I believe in the saying, 'big isn't always better' and proof is in this 'pudding'.

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TKWorldWide's picture

August 17, 2024 at 07:15 am

“Gets high before contact”
Joint practice
Mile High City

What in the wide, wide world of sports is a-goin’ on here?

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TarynsEyes's picture

August 17, 2024 at 08:59 am

Perhaps this level of 'highness' will allow him to levitate above the tacklers.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

August 18, 2024 at 10:45 pm

Not nearly enough plants for that

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ImaPayne2's picture

August 16, 2024 at 11:25 pm

My two cents, Dillons first two steps are to slow. He lacks quickness and thus is getting met at the los by tackles and lbs. Also he runs low and goes down more by being out of balance then being tackled.
I Think Llyod was his replacement who got hurt so we keep Dillon.

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Starrbrite's picture

August 16, 2024 at 11:36 pm

Absolutely agree—and he runs high.

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Coldworld's picture

August 18, 2024 at 09:16 am

There was a period earlier last season where he was running low at the coaches initiative and losing balance. It didn’t work. This year it looks like he’s continuing to run as he always has before and after that.

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Oppy's picture

August 17, 2024 at 07:08 am

Running low is a good thing.
And AJ Dillon doesn't do it.

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TKWorldWide's picture

August 17, 2024 at 07:16 am

“Running low is a good thing.”
But not when it’s on gas. 😉

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LambeauPlain's picture

August 17, 2024 at 08:43 am

Now he runs low?

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Oppy's picture

August 17, 2024 at 07:15 am

AJ Dillon was likely retained for the sake of continuity if nothing else.

GBP put much more emphasis on pass blocking from their backs than probably any other team in the league. It requires buy-in from the backs in the form of not only being willing to block, but to develop an eagerness to be an aggressive, passionate blocker. To put time and effort into it as a primary focus of your job duties. Not an easy thing to convince most RBs to embrace.

Dillon is the bridge to show the young and new backs what it means to be a back in Green Bay. What the expectation is, how to go about your business day to day, etc and so forth. He's also sure-handed and knows the offense inside and out.

It's probably Dillon's last season. For what it's worth, while he's not a plus RB, he has had games over the last two years where he's shouldered the load and done enough to help the Pakcers win. He's not a bad back, but he's not a #1 back in the NFL, and that's okay.

Good Packer. Good Man. Loves Wisconsin and the Green and Gold. Best of luck to him.

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Packitin's picture

August 17, 2024 at 07:43 am

I suspect that Dillon will make the 53. He is a good pass-pro guy, and could team with Jacobs on short-yardage downs. Not a bad receiver, and he has Special Teams possibilities (coverage/blocker, NOT returner). Wouldn't shock me to see him active over Sims on game days.
On the other hand, the Packers brain trust knows far more than I, and may well decide to cut him.

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LambeauPlain's picture

August 17, 2024 at 09:08 am

AJD is at a crossroads. He knows it. We know it. Gutey knows it...the holder of the keys to Packers' roster life or death. He has also shown he holds no sentimental value for fan favorites, even with endearing names like the Mayor of Door. AJD has also become cheaper to help tip the scales to remain a Packer. That's something.

I do cringe when I see AJD taking a handoff standing still for a draw play 8 yards deep. He needs to be powering on all cylinders at the handoff. Quickness has never been this thing and MLF keeps trying use it. A wasted play trying see it.

As much as I like AJD, I continue to be impressed by Wilson. His running style is quickness, power with balance. What is looking to be a trademark is how balanced he remains in the scrum while keeping his quick feet pounding. He's amazing in getting 1-3 yards consistently on his own.

Sunday may tell the tale for AJD.

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Mister Chievous's picture

August 17, 2024 at 09:08 am

should have kept Aaron Jones, the best back in Packers history.. bet he has a better season than Jacobs.

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LambeauPlain's picture

August 17, 2024 at 10:35 am

A great Packer.

Not even close to the greatest back in Packers history. Just off the top of my head; Levens, Johnny Blood, Brockington, Canadeo, Ahman Green, Hinkle, Hornung, Taylor were all better than Jones.

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dobber's picture

August 17, 2024 at 12:41 pm

Agreed.

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Oppy's picture

August 17, 2024 at 01:57 pm

I would have to think about Dorsey Levens for a bit.. however, health would nudge the scales in Levens' favor.

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Mister Chievous's picture

August 17, 2024 at 09:10 am

it's champing at the bit, not chomping.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

August 17, 2024 at 11:39 am

I admit that you taught me a new word, one which I had never read or heard spoken before. In a strict grammatical sense, you are correct, but my research on the word indicates that it has morphed into the more commonly used "Chomping" in America since the 1930's. Even though I learned a "new" word", I will likely continue using the vernacular close to home.

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Oppy's picture

August 17, 2024 at 02:07 pm

It's common for people to say "prolly" and "irregardless" as well. To be fair, the pronunciation of "champing" and "chomping" is trivial. Generally speaking, people are going to keep on using whatever incorrect terms they've been using all their life. It's not the end of the world, I guess.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

August 18, 2024 at 10:51 pm

Well that's a whole nother thing!

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

August 17, 2024 at 10:10 am

Love, Dillon, Deguara, Kamal Martin, Runyan, Hanson, Stepaniak, Scott, and Garvin. Yeah, not a good group. GB got something out of Dillon and Runyan, even if it was not above average. They got a bit from Deguara, if only that he filled a role indifferently. Love is the prize that easily salvages the draft class.

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Ferrari-Driver's picture

August 17, 2024 at 11:43 am

TGR, filling the quarterback slot with a "franchise" player goes a long way to making a draft successful. Simply look at how teams have struggled to find an above average quarterback in this league. Good post.

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RobinsonDavis's picture

August 17, 2024 at 11:16 am

I agree with TGR (as usual!). The 2020 year was quite tumultuous, with respect to roster juggling. I think Gute would admit that the draft in particular was not what he was hoping for. But let's go back and look at who was available after the Packers drafted by position. For context, the 2020 draft was loaded in the first round, but not much after, with only one or 2 Pro Bowl players after the 3rd Round. Safeties dominated this draft.

RBs chosen after Dillon are: Antonio Gibson, Ke-Shawn Vaughn, Lynn Bowden, ZACK MOSS, Darrynton Evans, Josh Kelly, La-Michal Perine, Anthony McFarland, DeeJay Dallas, and Jason Huntley. With the exception of Zack Moss, really nobody has been better.

After Dillon was drafted, the next 3 picks were Willie Gay, Jeremy Chin, & Logan Wilson. The Packers later drafted Kamal Martin who eventually started and was dropped the following year. Packers had needs at LB, but had Amos and Savage as their Safeties already. We had Logan Wilson pegged to the Packers in the 3rd round, but loved Chin.

71st overall was Justin Madubuike, DT. 73rd was Davon Hamilton - either one of these players could have helped Kenny Clark. After this, several players are either out of the league or 2nd/3rd string players currently until you get to Julian Blackmon and then Zack Moss.

As a point of interest Runyan was picked in the 6th round....A homerun pick IMO!! Guards such as Damien Lewis, Jonah Jackson were 3rd round picks....comparable to Runyan in our opinion.

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RobinsonDavis's picture

August 17, 2024 at 12:08 pm

With respect to Deguara, he looked the part until injured. This was an awful TE/HB draft after Deguara, in our opinion. Exception, Harrison Bryant.

Alex Highsmith came later, but we were deep at DE/OLB. Akeem Davis-Gaither would have helped at ILB (ADDENDUM: Tae Crowder was Mr. Irrevelant and played well), and looking back, probably was the pick. Darnay Holmes at nickel, but he does not meet the Packers measurables. Really, the Deguara pick probably was correct (we liked it at the time in this household), prior to his injury.

Packers traded their 4th round pick to move-up to pick Love. Looking back - Great Trade! KJ Osborn was picked immediately after Kamal Martin. OUCH!! My son was screaming for KJ Osborn at this time (frankly for some time in this draft!). Soon after, Justin Strnad - longtime Broncho ILB. Michael Onwenu. OT, was selected in the 6th round by the Patriots. Donovan Peoples Jones, whom I liked, was selected in the 6th.

So my point is that Gute and team, really appeared to pick the best, or one of the best players available by position when they chose them, when thinking specifically of Dillon and Deguara. What was available, were some solid LBs and Safeties. We all know that the Packers at the time did not respect the LB position (times have changed!!), and that with Amos and 1st round selection, Darnell Savage at Safety, the Packers were thinking they were good at that position. In retrospect, the 2020 draft was not deep in day 2 or 3 selections. Anything after the 75th pick, was a dart throw. Again, Runyan was a homerun!

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Coldworld's picture

August 18, 2024 at 09:27 am

Deguara was wanted as a guy who had played an offensive H back, a role openly cherished by LaFleur. Unfortunately, we ceased really using the attributes that LaFleur was looking for in an H back after his injury marred rookie season, partly due to TE injuries and partly due to the retreat in offensive philosophy that we’ve discussed at length after that year. The eventual role was likely not one that would have led us to select him in the first place I suspect.

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Leatherhead's picture

August 17, 2024 at 12:02 pm

I went back and did a little digging on the 2020 draft, and one of the things I found is that Dillon was taken at pick #62, and has an AV of 23. Jeremy Chinn, the safety, was taken a few picks later and his AV is 33. But other than that, most of the guys taken after #62 weren't much better. Only one of the next 30 picks, Justin Madabuike, has an AV of 29. A few others around 25 or 26. Most below 23. None of the RBs taken after him in the draft has a higher AV.

Another thing, John Runyan has an AV of 26, which puts him about 20th overall. He has a better AV than any other 6th rounder in that draft. So, a gem, IMO, Other than that, it's not like you see a bunch of guys that we "could have" drafted who did much better than the guy we took. Alex Highsmith stands out.

I have to agree with Robinson/Davis. It's not like we passed up some HOFers to draft Dillon, and he's done a good job for us.

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RobinsonDavis's picture

August 17, 2024 at 12:55 pm

Thanks Leatherhead! Using AV, Dillon is better than Moss and ranks only behind Jonathan Taylor and Deandre Swift from that draft! Both were drafted much higher than Dillon. I just provided our opinions (my son who wrote a college draft piece for awhile, and my own). We actually had Deguara and Wilson to the Packers that year, pre-draft in the 3rd & 4th round, but subsequently liked the Dillon pick. Remember that Lafleur had Derrick Henry when OC with the Titans, and Todd Gurley prior. Both power backs. AJ needs to return to what he was and lower his shoulder. Beyond that, he and his wife are some of the good people of football. I'm glad they have become Wisconsinites!

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stockholder's picture

August 17, 2024 at 03:50 pm

Chinn should have been picked!

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RobinsonDavis's picture

August 17, 2024 at 01:47 pm

For something interesting, the Packers have 2 other players from the 2020 draft on the roster in Xavier McKinney and Tyler Davis and another undrafted free agent in Kristian Welch. Notable undrafted free agents for the Packers were Patrick Taylor and Krys Barnes that year.

Also, for this week, remember Emanuel Wilson, was originally with the Broncos in 2023 prior to being released and picked-up by the Packers. Gute and his scouts obviously had Emmanuel Wilson on their radar prior to his release.

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