How Does The 2021 Salary Cap Look And Should It Affect The 2020 Draft?

The Packers cap space for 2020 is depleted.  At present, the team has about $11M in cap space under the Rule of 51.  However, the team must deduct a little more than $2M to sign its draft class (net), plus another $3M to pay for the practice squad and for the 52nd and 53rd contracts.  That would leave the Packers with about $4.8M heading into the season.  Last year the team had to pay roughly $3.3M to players on the IR and PUP lists who did not have game active bonuses in their contracts.  Unless the Packers release another player or restructure someone, it appears that they are done with free agency this year and that any carryover of cap from 2020 into 2021 will be negligible. Some players might reach incentives.  I have been unable to find any details about Funchess' $3.75 million incentive package or how easily he might earn them.

Perhaps the team's cap situation for 2021 looks brighter?  Sadly, the answer is no, it does not.  I looked at Sportrac and Overthecap (OTC) to calculate the Packers' cap situation for 2021.  You can read OTC's summary here.  OTC does list the Packers with over $52M in cap space, which sounds pretty good, but the column that is closer to reality is the one noted as "effective cap space," which comes in at $38.356M.  However, even that number is not real.

First, OTC assumes that the NFL salary cap will increase to $215M for 2021, a healthy $16.8M (8.48%) increase over the 2020 limit.  Remember that the cap has been increasing by about $10M per year (6 percent, including just 5.3 percent last year).  There have been some reports suggesting that the salary cap is expected to greatly increase for the 2021 league year to as much as $240 million (a massive increase of $41.8M), but I can only find one person, Matt Verderame of Fansided, who indicated he had sources for an increase.  You can read his article here.

Those with longer memories will recall that the NFL expected the cap to increase in 2011, but instead it went from $123 million in 2009 to uncapped, $120M and then $120.6M in 2012.  Things got so tight for teams that the union and NFL made some side agreements to modify the just-passed CBA.

Second, OTC calculated its effective cap space by looking at how many players are signed for 2021.  The Packers have 30 players signed but it will have at least 51, so OTC multiplied 21 times the 2021 rookie minimum of $660,000 ($13.86M) and deducted it from the cap space to reach $38.35M.  There is no way the Packers will have 21 players on the 53 man roster making the rookie mimimum.  Last year there was one at the end of the season, Allen Lazard.  Still, that difference might be perhaps $1.5M or so.

Finally, the Packers will again have to deduct $10M to $11M for signing draft picks, the PS and the 52nd and 53rd players, plus $5M for churn.  So, let's assume that OTC's estimate that the cap will increase to $215M is correct.  After deducting the $11M noted just above and the $1.5M since the team will not have 21 players earning the rookie minimum, the spendable cap amount might be about $25.75M ($38.356M minus $12.5M).  If the team is fortunate there might be a modest carry over.

The Packers have relatively few players whose release provides significant cap savings in 2021, and its contractual liabilities are high.  The Packers have 30 players signed for 2021 whose cap numbers add up to about $163 million.  That is a lot (23rd in the NFL), but only Davante Adams, the Smiths, Kirksey, Rodgers, Amos, Wagner, Turner ($3.55M), and Lowry ($3.3M) provide significant cap savings.  The Packers need these players to play well (pending the draft or intermal development of players already on the roster). 

Finally, the elephant in the room is the Packers' list of unrestricted and restricted free agents.  It is long and full of players who at present are expected to either start or contribute.      


The RFAs include Sullivan, Lancaster, Greene, Tonyan, Boyle and Kumerow.  Barring a collapse during the 2020 season, Sullivan is a lock, and Lancaster is likely to be tendered.  The Pack probably will draft a defensive lineman or two, and it is possible Keke improves.  Greene probably needs to show he can play more than two games per year.  Kumerow would have to have a strong year.  Boyle might depend on whether the Packers acquire another quarterback.  All of these players originally were undrafted.

The 2020 tenders were as follows: $4.61M for a first round pick, $3.26M for a 2nd, and $2.13M for the right of first refusal.  I would guess that Sullivan gets the 2nd round tender, and Lancaster might but probably gets the low tender instead.  The others should not get a tender but the Packers can try to sign them for less.  $5.39 million minus the rookie minimum times two leaves a net cost of $4.07M. 

The UFAs:  Bakhtiari, Linsley, Lane Taylor, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Kevin King, Funchess, Ervin, Marcedes Lewis, Will Redmond and Montravius Adams.

Bakhtiari: Gutekunst talked a lot about extending Clark but not much about Bakhtiari.  His market is probably $20M AAV.  The non-exclusive franchise tag for offensive linemen was $14.78M in 2020, so the tag would underpay Bakhtiari (as long as he is an All-Pro left tackle).  The Packers could extend him now and save a bit in 2020 on his current $14.7M cap number.  Cap numbers of $14M, $17M, $20M, $23M and $26M over five years works.  I would suggest a 2021 cap number of $12M to $14M for 2021. 

I do not think the Packers would let Bakhtiari walk.  If one of the top four offensive tackle prospects drops to pick 30, the Packers should pounce.  Note that Ben Solak of the draft network as well as many mocks suggest the top four prospects will be off the board by pick 14 or earlier.  

Linsley: He turns 30 years old in time for the start of the 2021 season.  The fifth highest paid center currently has an AAV of $11M and the tenth highest paid earns an AAV of $9.5M.  Linsley should be in that area.  He would probably have a $6M to $7M 2021 cap hit.  Look for the Packers to draft multiple interior offensive linemen.

Taylor: He might not make the team in 2020. 

Clark:  I have argued that Clark is not worth $17M AAV since he is not a DE and he is not a 4-3 DT.  Perhaps he can play 4-3 DT.  The highest paid nose tackle was paid $11.25M but he was released.  The franchise tag for DL was $16.12M in 2020.  It sounds like the Packers are going to pay Clark.  10M, 13M, 16M, 19M, and 22M averages out to $16M.  Perhaps he will have a $10M cap number for 2021.

Aaron Jones:  Elliott got $15M AAV and the fifth-highest RB earns $8.4M.  The franchise tag for 2020 actually decreased to $10.28M and the transition tag was $8.48M.  The Titans applied the $10.28M tag on Derrick Henry and Arizona put the transition tag on Kenyon Drake.  I have not heard Gutekunst say much to the point about paying running backs.  Length and guarantees are probably more important than AAV.  For now, watch how Henry and Drake play out and pencil in $10M as a 2021 cap hit for Jones.

Jamaal Williams: The Pack keeps him if they decide to let Jones walk.  If the Packers keep Jones, Williams would have to be very reasonably priced:  the Pack does like him, but money is low. 

Kevin King: Even when Healthy King is not above average.  The 20th highest paid CB earns $9M AAV. Buster Skrine, the 33rd highest paid earns $5.5M AAV.  The Packers are a little short on CBs even assuming Sullivan plays well unless Hollman, Ento or someone they acquire shines.  I would suggest $6.5 AAV with a 2021 cap hit of $4M.

As for the rest, Lewis will probably retire and Montravius Adams might not even make the team in 2020.  Redmond and Ervin probably get a modest amount, maybe a bit more if Ervin shows something as a gadget player.

Recap: $4M for the RFAs, $18.5M for the offensive linemen, $10M for Clark, $10M for Jones, and $4M for King equals $46.5M minus $4.62M (7 times the rookie minimum) leaves a net of $41.88M.  I suggested above that the Packers only had $25.75M in spendable cap for 2021, leaving the team $16.1M short.

The salary cap might increase by more than $16.8M.  The Packers could pay just 40% of AAV as a first year cap hit to fit more players in under the cap.  The Packers might restructure Rodgers' contract again.  Converting $15M in salary and roster to a signing bonus would increase 2021 cap space by $10M at the cost of pushing his 2022 and 2023 cap numbers to $44.85M and $33.352M, respectively.  It will be interesting to see if Gutekunst will try to have a seamless transition or if he will just assume that the Packers will be bad after Rodgers retires or leaves and shed dead money then.  If the latter, then Green Bay pushes the $44.85M cap hit down with another restructure.  2021 is a contract year for Davante Adams, so an extension would be the only way to gain cap savings from him.

While long term it is better to draft based on talent over need, my win-now mode tugs me in the other direction.  It will probably work out.  When the Packers are on the board, there should will be several prospects at different positions (including need and positions that help save cap space) that I like a lot, or Gutekunst might trade back, which in general sounds like a good idea in this draft.

 

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Comments (40)

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stockholder's picture

April 04, 2020 at 05:55 am

Gutey must make some Gut wrenching decisions again. Linsley and Bahk must go. Trade them, It's the only way around the cap. Do it now before they walk. It's a business. Get what you can. Franchise Clark. Cap problem solved. Theres No need to turn this roster upside down, when the solution is a simple one.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 08:31 am

I very rarely agree with your positions Stockholder, but I am also starting to lean in the direction of letting Bakhtiari walk. The Packers have a history of not resigning offensive linemen over 30, particularly if they have any injury history and Bakh will be over 30 with some back issues. Not resigning Bakh almost singlehandedly takes care of the Packers cap issues next season.

Given the strength of the 2020 draft in OTs, I could see the Packers double dipping at tackle and letting Bakh play out his contract. I doubt they will trade Bakh as you suggested, but letting him go after the 2020 season could make a great deal of sense.

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Coldworld's picture

April 04, 2020 at 04:54 pm

I also am rarely in agreement with Stockholder, but assuming Clark can be resigned I think Bakh will be playing elsewhere after this season.

That is not a reflection on Bakh but in a combination of cap room scarcity, risk of injury, decline and the opportunity cost in terms of overall team talent. Ultimately, win now isn’t served if the rest of the team suffers too much. Unfortunately, Bakh leaving seems the most likely way out of the cap squeeze that resigning Clark will entail.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 04, 2020 at 05:01 pm

Ted's not here any longer. For reference, the 49rs hung onto Staley for a reason. Jason Peters still brought at age 36.
These guys don't grow on trees.

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murf7777's picture

April 04, 2020 at 09:46 am

I respectfully disagree for two reasons.

1. To win a SB you must have special players, Bak is one of them. So, if you trade him you might miss out on winning a SB.
2. You will get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Bak if you lose him in FA.

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CAG123's picture

April 04, 2020 at 10:27 am

That's why you trade him the Packers could probably get multiple draft picks for an all pro LT look what the Dolphins got for Laremy Tunsil who's ascending but just made his first pro bowl.

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murf7777's picture

April 04, 2020 at 11:57 am

Tunsil is 25 and the trade was multiple people involved. It’s apples and oranges. Even if you could get a 1st round pick which I doubt for a 30 yr old tackle you take away from the chances of winning a SB now by not having a solid LT protecting our QB. Every year older Arod gets the less likely we have of winning the big one. So, let’s say you get a 2nd rounder for him if you wait and don’t sign him you will get a compensatory 3rd. Last year when Gutey spent our SC capital shows he is in a win now mode. I doubt he would consider a trade for Bak, not should he. That said, there is also a chance Packers sign him or extend to a friendly contract this or next year. If it happened this year I’m sure there are ways to free up cap space and TGR could tell us how. Bak May very well have loyalty to the Pack.

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CAG123's picture

April 04, 2020 at 02:07 pm

Do you honestly think they got a second 1st round pick for Kenny Stills and that other average linemen? One of the players isn't even on the roster anymore Tunsil definitely fetched them two first round picks. And what's with this 30 crap he's 28 right now and will be 29 in September lets not purposely make him older. That makes him a 28 year old, in prime, All Pro LT yeah that's definitely a first and at least a third right there.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 03:06 pm

The 30 reference is legit for contract discussions because that is the age he will be when his new contract starts. You are correct that will be assessed as a 28 year for a trade now.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 12:02 pm

If you could move up enough this year to snag a top OT, I would do the trade in a heartbeat, but why would the other team make that deal when they could draft the same young OT? If you are trading for next year's draft choices, you better hope you get lucky at #30 this year because Bakh's replacement is not on the current roster.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 04, 2020 at 05:08 pm

Leatherwood and Trey Smith are top guys next year, but probably not in G.B.s reach. Bhaktiari is a sound investment.
They would have to dish quite a few high picks to get to 18 and ahead of Miami to target Jackson, the other guys will be taken. Jones is a guy to look at RT, some have him as a guard. So, Bhak is moved and who plays the LT to drive the SB run? This is a Reload year.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 11:53 am

You won't necessarily get a 3rd rounder - that would depend on how active Gute is next year in free agency. Remember compensation is based on NET gains and losses and their related contracts, not on a particular player. It is possible the Packers could lose Bakh and get zero compensatory picks.

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murf7777's picture

April 04, 2020 at 12:00 pm

With the SC situation TGR mapped out it’s doubtful a high end FA gets signed next year. That said I still stand by my statement about winning now. Draft picks are a crapshoot and you know what you have in Bak which by the way he plays one of the most important positions.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 12:08 pm

I agree that the whole Bakhtiari situation turns on winning now versus planning for the longer term. I guess I am more of a longer term guy. I think Rodgers plays for several more years (Bradyesque?) and planning for the future is still relevant.

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murf7777's picture

April 04, 2020 at 12:14 pm

Yes , I can understand that side as well. I’m hoping we can extend him for 3 years. Overall, he has stayed pretty healthy. That said I hope we take a couple of OL & DL in the draft. Build the trenches.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2020 at 02:41 pm

I am a shorter term, win-now guy. I lived through the 70s and 80s and can do so again. I don't think it would be endless with Gute at the helm, either. Also, I like roster construction so having a poor team doesn't mean I can't derive enjoyment from the season, just less on game days, LOL.

Researching this article, as usual I got distracted when I compared GB to other teams. For instance, MN has even higher contractual liabilities than GB, but overall their cap situation seems better to me in some ways. That's because while their liabilities were $10M more for 2021, they didn't have too many big free agents left, and one of them is Anthony Harris, currently on a tag for 2020. A long term deal should generate some cap carryover into 2020. I realize MN shed some talent (Everson Griffen was still very good, Linval Joseph not so much) so we have to see how good they are in 2020. GB had one $20M guy, another $15M guy, and two $10M+ AAV guys. Yikes!

I view keeping Bakh as a short term win-now move rather than a long term thing. Extend him for 5 years, keep him for 3 or 4 (AR's window) and eat the dead money when Bakh is 33 or 34 and breaking down. We look at that differently probably because you wouldn't like the contract details I'd use. I have no problem with GB having $30M in dead money in 2023 or 2024 to dump. Murff noted that generating space is possible, but GB is running out of players that work unless Gute drafts quality replacements for say Preston, Amos, really anyone on a 2nd or 3rd contract. Big cap savings come from AR, Z and Preston simply because they get paid the most, and that's for a reason.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 03:02 pm

Funny what perspective does to you - I was a fan through the 70's and 80's and I think it scarred me for life..... I much preferred the 60's! Probably why I am such a long term planner.

Bakh is a really interesting issue because he is such a talented player and entering that "uncertain zone" of a third contract where age and injury may or may not take their toll. It is a roll of the dice either way whether the Packers keep him or let him walk after next season. My lean toward letting him walk is the need to sign so many other, younger players that might keep the Packers competitive for years to come. Very glad I don't have Gute's job......this will be a no win decision with the fan base.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2020 at 08:02 pm

During the Packers' Glory Years, I was a very young Chicago Bears fan. I never had the Glory Years, but I want them, or the equivalent in today's NFL. I grew up pretending to be Jack Concannon, Bobby Douglas, Kent Nix, Tagge, Whitehurst. Eventually gave up and pretended to be Len Dawson or Sonny Jurgenson.

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Guam's picture

April 05, 2020 at 07:58 am

I grew up 50 miles from Green Bay during the Glory Years which is why the 70's and 80's were such a shock. I wanted to be Boyd Dowler but was too slow and had bad hands.....

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fthisJack's picture

April 05, 2020 at 08:39 am

i've been a Packer fan since the 50's and even though the 70's and 80's where abysmal, i still loved watching their offense when they had Dickey at QB and Lofton and Jefferson at WR. It's too bad Dickey's knees were shot otherwise he would have been one of the all time greats. Just a great passer of the football. They could put points on the board in a hurry. I remember them beating the Redskins on Monday night football 48-47 at Lambeau Field in 1983! too bad their defense was so rotten. I was at a Bears game in the late seventies when Walter Payton gashed them for over 200 yards rushing. Then you had Charles Martin body slamming Jim McMahon on his shoulder. Crazy times but still enjoyed watching them play.

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dobber's picture

April 04, 2020 at 06:46 am

Well done, as always, TGR. Thanks for all your work!

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murf7777's picture

April 04, 2020 at 07:55 am

Great analysis...last years signings hamstrung us some and fortunately so far we are getting value from 3 out of 4 those. As I stated last year during these signings we have to have 3 out of 4 = or exceed the expectations of the contract amounts. Since each one won’t make good economic sense to cut till after year 3 there is and was risk in these acquisitions. So, how it goes in signing any FA, whether it being yours or another teams. Teams that continue to win in the NFL is one with great management!

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 04, 2020 at 05:14 pm

The Turner deal was excessive and the hit from betting on Jimmy Graham to show etc. It's all a ledger write off in the end for the football business.

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Guam's picture

April 04, 2020 at 08:29 am

Great article TGR - thank you. I knew the Packers had cap issues next year, but your article very concisely lays out what those issues are. I appreciate your hard work keeping us informed.

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Dzehren's picture

April 04, 2020 at 09:08 am

The OL needs an injection of youth. If GUTE let’s BAK, Taylor & Lindley walk, that’s 3 compensatory picks & GB would replace these expensive aging players with younger draft picks. Center is an under the radar need (keep The Big E @ guard & keep L Patrick as back up).

GB should reinvest the 3 comp picks from 2020 & possible 3 next year.

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dobber's picture

April 04, 2020 at 10:15 am

I don't think Taylor makes it to that point. I think he's off the roster by the start of camp.

But I agree: I think they take as many as 3 OL in this draft (an OT early who can be the swing tackle, interior OL mid rounds, OT-OG conversion project late). The change in roster rules makes it easier to carry extra OL on the active roster on game day, which makes this a little more practical.

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Lare's picture

April 04, 2020 at 11:24 am

Another factor in this is that the Packers can now draft OL that are hand-picked to block in the new outside zone blocking scheme that LaFleur utilizes. Bakhtiari, Lindsley and Taylor all learned in the McCarthy/Campen blocking scheme.

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The_Justicar's picture

April 05, 2020 at 11:54 am

Taylor wouldn’t return much if anything as a comp pick. Who would sign him? 2018....he stunk. 2019. He was injured and missed nearly the entire season. 2020...if on the roster...he isn’t good enough to crack the starting line up. It would be since 2017, at that time 4 seasons ago, that he played as well as an average offensive lineman. That is not the recipe for a free agent signing for any real dollars.

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flackcatcher's picture

April 04, 2020 at 09:43 am

Thanks TGR for laying it all out. More and more I think Gute keeps his draft choices, because of next years Cap and the lack of depth across the roster. (Man those numbers... are depressing)

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Lphill's picture

April 04, 2020 at 10:12 am

Funny how teams like the Cowboys and Vikings and Patriots are able to make moves but the Packers whine about cap space so yes let’s take some picks to fill in in 2021 and disregard trying to improve for this season. It’s time for many of you to realize that Gutey is not gonna lead this team to the promise land, Rodgers should demand a trade , how ironic it would be if he went to the 49 ers you don’t think they would throw picks at the Packers for him?

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13TimeChamps's picture

April 04, 2020 at 01:02 pm

You actually mention the Vikings and Cowboys while talking about the "promise land"...lol. The Cowboys haven't won a SB since the mid 90's and the Vikings have never won one. And you completely ignore the fact that the Vikings had to let go of numerous starters on defense to get under the cap. Let's see how that works out for them.

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Tarynfor12's picture

April 04, 2020 at 11:04 am

The luck of last season has now come to collect. GB is again back to the bottom of the rounds in the draft. The very position many here constantly clamor as being a reason for the yearly failure to win another SB, unless you're one of those that believe the Packers have been very successful based on Division wins and playoff entry's while wasting the best years of the franchise QB who by many have deemed the GOAT while achieving less and less each year with a bump up once in a while.

Last years season of luck may be the worst thing that could have happened to the team and the FO. They have little salary cap, many holes to fill, lack draft capital to move up and a selection position that won't garner a very good trade back deal, multiple players that if not resigned after this season could wreak even more harm and the inability to lure young skill position FA's instead of the usual, those with near two feet in the retirement years.

Yes, I await those who will say they got to the NFCCG but refuse to accept they didn't belong in it, though that writing was written on the wall long before and proven by the same opponent weeks earlier, and still blindly dismiss the ills that were derived from it and will continue to champion the mantra 'As long as we have Rodgers' that hasn't actually WON an SB since it's inception, while not forgetting the 'In Ted We Trust' or the newer 'IN Gute We Trust'.

TGR writes an awesome article but one premise needs to be erased in regard to next season's salary cap. The money being lost due to the COVID-19 virus will surely impact revenue and quite possibly make any jump in cap space moot, unless this season can and does play out to its normal production and garners the same revenue as years past and MORE, which is what makes the cap grow. The decline in revenue from a shortened season or cancelled one will be even more detrimental to GB next season.

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Lphill's picture

April 04, 2020 at 11:09 am

Yes last year was a lot of luck and now Gute is taking the team backwards because he is not capable in his responsibility to continually improve.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2020 at 12:24 pm

I don't know enough (my economics degree was long ago and insufficient to deal with this situation even when my bachelors degree was new, and my medical degree is non-existent).

That makes Covid 19 hard to analyze, and perhaps no one really knows. If it does not subside, teams will get hurt badly on local income, which was roughly $200M of GB's $474M revenue. More people at home might translate into higher TV ratings, but that seems a stretch and won't matter if the teams can't play at all.

The Fansided tweet was dated Feb 28, a bit before folks started getting stay at home orders. I have to note that the sources also thought the cap, expected at the time to reach $200M, might reach $204M, but now we know it was disappointing at $198.2M. Yes, $6M would make some difference, at least at a position or two.

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flackcatcher's picture

April 06, 2020 at 05:36 pm

In my day job I deal with Covid-19 every day. Even if we are seeing a slight drop, the damage is real and long term. The odds that the virus will be back in force by October- November is real and cannot be wished away. The reality is there will not be a vaccine till early next year at the latest and it will take months to ramp up production for wide scale (worldwide) use. What does that mean for winter sports, including football. My guess based on first-hand experience, is a 'bath' the likes the league has not seen since the 1950s. (Unless you have seen the 'China special' you have no idea just how really nasty this thing is...)

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 04, 2020 at 12:12 pm

I don't look for surplus value from free agents. As it happens, ZaDarius managed to do it despite his $16.5M AAV price tag. I thought Preston Smith was worth about what he got paid. Turner and Amos were in the ball park. Amos played deep less than he had previously which I think is his highest and best use, but he can play well closer to the line as well. I think he can improve his play this year. So...

Pick 30 sets up much of Gute's draft. GB could go Murray, WR, maybe but I don't like DL, shouldn't be OT, not edge, small chance of CB, not S, not OC/OG, doubt RB, not TE, and I wouldn't go QB myself. 30 sets up the premium part of the draft. If it isn't a WR, then 62 or at the latest 94 will be a WR. Book that (I hate reading that phrase, but what the heck). Trading down doesn't change the dynamics much.

DL: Brown and Kinlaw might fix things but they will be gone. Blacklock and Gallimore would be okay but underwhelming at 30. They and Madubuike would be good value at 62. I suspect the Pack might draft a DL at 62 or 94 if the value is there or settle for a fat guy in 5th. Very little cap savings since the prospect will be paired with Clark rather than replacing him. Maybe pick up $ from releasing Lowry ($3.3M savings but $3M dead after the 2020 season- not an ideal ratio and not a lot of $) and he probably isn't a trade candidate unless he rebounds. 1 to 2 get drafted.

OL: I'd run to the podium at 30 for Wills, Wirfs, Becton or Andrew Thomas, but alas I don't see any of them falling. Josh Jones and Austin Jackson might be more pro ready but their ceilings make them just okay picks in the 30s and 40s. Cleveland or a few others at 62 would be good value. I'd be surprised if there aren't some centers and guards taken day three. Teams can find starters there even if they take a year, which the Pack can give them. 2 IOL get drafted (one somewhere at 94, 136, 175, and another later). Maybe some cap savings in 2021 by replacing Wagner ($4.25M savings). The home run is replacing Bakh, but that's hard to do.

CB: There are a quite a few 2nd and 3rd round prospects. It is a sneaky need though I really like Hollman and am open-minded about Ento. Since GB has 10 picks, I'd expect a CB at some point, but as BPA. 1 gets drafted late day 3. No cap savings.

WR: Got to have one. Take one high (day one or two) and another in the 4th or at the latest 5th round. 2 get drafted. 1 in the top 62 and another early day 3.

SS: Hate Delpit in the first. Pettine will have to find Hercules Hybrid to make his D work. Perhaps adding a 2nd above average CB will allow Pettine to rely on coverage to slow down the passing attack so they can focus on the run. Or maybe after Clark gets paid he will go back to playing run defense.

FB: Teams usually can find quality in the 5th and 6th rounds. It looks like a poor year for FBs. I'd take AJ Dillon at 175 or 192, but he gets over drafted, and he isn't a pure FB anyway.

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Lare's picture

April 04, 2020 at 03:16 pm

We can guess all we want, but the point is there's a new sheriff in town. The needs for LaFleur's and Pettine's schemes are a lot different than for McCarthy's & Caper's. Gutekunst's picks this draft will be telling.

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CoachDino's picture

April 04, 2020 at 05:10 pm

I try not to go too negative on articles or posts but man do we have some clueless posters today.

great Article - I wish every writer and poster would read these type of articles before making ill informed statements of what we should do in the draft.

On the point of being lucky... True - PFF even quantified it for all teams. Packers were one of the top beneficiaries. Doesn't mean they are a bad team and would of finished 7-9. They were the best team in the division and have the QB to take advantage of what they did have. They will be an even better team this year. Why wouldn't they? What factors would indicate a regression? In record? sure - They may fall to 10-6 or 11-5. If the record isn't the barometer due to factors such as luck, than not having a better record would be mute. Just to stay consistent and not be a hypocrite.

The team should be better due to:
Another year in the system - This was a First year head coach and Offensive scheme.
Replacing Graham - no explanation needed.
Greene and EQS will be back. These two guys are much better than the replacements.
Adding capable LB's - Can't get worse
Savage going into year 2
A new offensive weapon - Be it a WR, RB/WR (antonio Gibson/Lynn Bowden)
If they land a IDL that will be another plus.

Losing BB at RT is a downgrade to Wagner. Wagner is still a solid RT in this League.

Sounds crazy thinking of letting Bach walk but there is a conversation to be had there. Better land an OT or two this year.... maybe even an IOL/Center. Cutting Turner and not resigning Lindsey will go a long way to keeping Bach. Maybe why the didn't sign a FA OT....Turner might be the Backup this year.

IMO it is wishful thinking that the Packers can take a win now attitude and not have to take some cap hit casualties down the road.

SF/KC/TENN/ nall sucked for years. It's just they way it works out. Some exceptions.

Push out Rodgers contract (again) and then take the cap hit when he retires or is cut. Suck it up for a year or two then come back at it.

My fellow posters the odds of winning a SB is 1/32 .031% once every 32 years...they have won 4 in 54 years...

They have won 2 since the league went to 32 team in 2002. (18 yrs).

Perspective my friends.

How would you like to be the Vikings or Detroit? At least the Bears won 1 SB 36 years ago.

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splitpea1's picture

April 04, 2020 at 08:14 pm

Great article for sure.

On your last few sentences, though, not all organizations are assembled equally; the more competent they are, the greater their chances are of winning the title. And some owners have other priorities than winning; other teams have enormous difficulty finding a QB that can get the job done.

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CoachDino's picture

April 07, 2020 at 12:50 am

Yes, some teams are better than others in all those areas. Explains why the odds on a given year change. But in the end it flattens out. The Packers/NE/SF/Pitt have all seen both ends of the spectrum.. There will be teams above and below the mean, exactly to your point in which we agree.
My intended message is just perspective on actually winning a SB..
In a year when all the controllable factors are at their best, the odds in 2021 for that team, #1 overall, is 16% success. 84% chance of failing to reach the objective.

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