Quarterbacks could hold key to potential Green Bay trade down
This year's top rated quarterbacks could hold the key to the Packers trading out of the first round.
By dnicholson
One of the hot topics this week in Packer land is the potential for Green Bay to trade out of the first round of the upcoming draft. If you’re taking odds, don’t bet the house.
But if indeed Ted Thompson decides adding another mid-round selection to slide back a handful of picks is worth it, then it could come down to how the board plays out with quarterbacks and pass rushers.
When Thompson and the Pack traded back out of the first round in 2008 – swapping the 30th overall pick for the Jets’ early second-round pick plus a fourth-rounder – they added Jordy Nelson and Jeremy Thompson. The Jets nabbed tight end Dustin Keller, who was a consistent-if-unspectacular player until injuries cut his career short. Green Bay stands head and shoulders the winner in this deal.
In this year’s draft classes, arguably the two deepest talent pools fall at cornerback and edge rusher, which just happen to correspond to two of Green Bay’s biggest perceived needs. The Pack are also thin at interior line, an area they’ve become famous for not just addressing but rather hitting home runs in the draft’s middle rounds. And barring historic circumstances, Green Bay is unlikely to select a running back in the first round. (And let’s be honest, there’s no way Christian McCaffrey lasts that long anyway.)
What this all shapes up for is a possibility that Green Bay could have a handful of players with comparable value on the board at No. 29, while other potential quarterback-needy teams like Cleveland, San Francisco and Chicago are waiting desperately in the wings at the top of the second round.
If Cleveland skips quarterback at No. 1 and No. 12, they might not want to stand pat at with the first pick of the second round if a quarterback they covet is sitting there (and a team like Pittsburgh could, although I don’t think they will, select a quarterback at No. 30). The Browns also have two second round picks, offsetting the loss of whatever later pick they’d have to sacrifice to move up a few spots.
There’s also the leapfrog scenario for the 49ers (34th pick), Bears (36th) and Jets (39th) where each is afraid of the others grabbing their guy before they can.
The general consensus is that Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and DeShone Kizer are the four quarterbacks worth a round 1 or 2 pick. As far as the most quarterback-needy teams out there, start with Cleveland and follow with Houston, New York, Chicago, San Francisco, Arizona and Buffalo.
Watch those teams closely in the first round. If at least two take quarterback, then one or two of the others might see the value in trading for Green Bay’s first round pick. If none are taken, then Green Bay’s 29th pick becomes the sweepstakes for any of the aforementioned to take the first quarterback of the draft.
The depth at corner and edge rusher in this year’s class could provide some luxury for the Packers. If their coveted rushers are off the board, it’s a sure bet that an excellent corner is still there – and they can address edge rusher with the next tier of players in later rounds. If Green Bay’s favorite cornerback prospect is gone in the first, they could address the defense elsewhere and circle back to the position in later rounds.
And if it’s all the same – that their board is flush with talent at multiple positions – then it could absolutely be worth trading down to the second and stockpiling more ammo for the third or fourth rounds.
Is this a likely scenario? It’s hard to say, but the key to how it all plays out could be in the hands of quarterback-desperate teams.
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Comments (32)
John Galt III
April 14, 2017 at 12:39 pm
"There's no way Christian McCaffrey last that long anyway."
Wow, OK then. Players similar to McCaffrey are Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. They lasted 12 and 8 years and Edelman isn't finished. Those guys were picked by Bill Belicheck and all he has done is win more Super Bowls than any other coach.
You must be really smart and I would love to hear about your successful years as a player and coach in the NFL.
My son was Captain of a Division One BCS team and he beleievs McCaffrey is the best all around player in the draft and will be a steal if he falls to the second round.
Guess we will just have to wait and see who is right.
ejr450
April 14, 2017 at 12:48 pm
John
I think he meant there's no way McCaffrey lasts until the 29th pick. Not lasts that long in the league. By all accounts he's a fantastic player.
dschwalm
April 15, 2017 at 11:05 am
Whew. I am glad someone shed the light on poor old Galt!!!
Jason Kilgore
April 14, 2017 at 12:49 pm
Yeah.....I think he meant he won't last that far into the draft, as in pick 29....he will be gone earlier. Not he won't last I he NFL.
dnicholson
April 14, 2017 at 01:30 pm
Sorry for the confusion -- it was worded poorly. I meant that I do not believe McCaffrey will be around at the 29th pick.
lebowski
April 14, 2017 at 02:11 pm
Don't apologize to that snarky douche, David
WKUPackFan
April 14, 2017 at 03:05 pm
Agreed, he knew exactly what David meant.
Point-Packer
April 14, 2017 at 07:06 pm
Agreed. John Galt junior junior junior and his jock son can lick my balls.
NickPerry
April 14, 2017 at 01:18 pm
Personally I'm in favor of just staying put and drafting the BPA at 29, 61, and 93. Just based on the number of needs this team has I think they could take BPA those first 3 picks and address a need doing it.
stockholder
April 14, 2017 at 08:42 pm
I agree. Were not rebuilding. Haven't we had enough busts/pan outs. Hey guys, you are not going to cheat anyone out of a all-pro player. You want the BPA. You don't get that trading down most of the time. You can get positional players later.
dobber
April 15, 2017 at 11:58 am
Depends on how you define "rebuild" but this team is definitely in a "retooling" phase based on the players gone off the two-deep from the end of camp a year ago.
Community Guy
April 14, 2017 at 01:48 pm
good article David. i do not think it will happen; however, a trade down to add a pick or picks seems like a great idea.
mattgsx
April 14, 2017 at 02:23 pm
Browns trading their first second round pick and either a third or fourth (or two/three of their fifth) could maybe make sense if there's a specific player they're targeting. Not much difference picking at the end of the first or the top of the round, and they (Cleveland) would still have a round 2 pick. And they (Browns) would still have a full draft class plus a stocked 2018 draft class. NO could maybe want to upgrade their #32 pick from NE if they start to see a run at a position group they're targeting. Carolina might have the available draft capital, but I don't see GB wanting to go back that far and make their first pick at 40.
Outside of that, there are just too many teams that can't afford to give up picks due to either recent trades or 2016 draft deals that I don't think we'll see many deals at the end of each round.
Honestly though, this isn't a bad year to be on the bottom of the draft order since there are so many picks w similar grades that there are some guaranteed 'slides' that won't be due to off the field issues, but more due to the large number of good prospects in the same positions.
Tl;dr - neither a trade or non trade would surprise me.
Buck66
April 14, 2017 at 04:32 pm
The main reason to move up into the first round is to give your team the fifth year contract option on the player you selected. Otherwise it only has a minor value to make sure your board is reflecting reality as you move into the second day.
Since'61
April 14, 2017 at 04:42 pm
I would trade our first round pick for both of the Browns 2nd round picks which would give us 3 2nd round picks and with our third round pick we would have 4 picks from the top 100 players in the draft. By the end of the third round we could have 2 CBs and 2 pass rushers which might be good enough to make an immediate impact on the defense. From there we can move on to RB, OL, DL and WR, not necessarily in that order. No doubt will we see TT's plan evolve as the draft progresses and likely it will not follow our expectations. Thanks, Since '61
Handsback
April 14, 2017 at 05:50 pm
Yeah Since 61...I would love that. Cleveland needs to draft some good playmakers not add draft picks.
NickPerry
April 14, 2017 at 06:44 pm
I like the thinking Since '61 but the 33rd and 52nd picks in the 2nd round sounds a little steep for the 29th pick. I suppose if a few QB's are taken before the Packers 1st round pick you might get away with getting the 33rd and 65th pick in the 3rd round if the Browns are desperate.
If the Browns were smart they'd keep their picks, use the first 5 on defense (5 picks in first 65 players) and in a year or two have pretty damn good defense. They already have some good defensive players there now. In 2 years they could have a top defense with the haul they'll get this season.
Now I did say if the Browns were smart so chances are they screw it all up anyways.
mattgsx
April 14, 2017 at 08:49 pm
I'm actually pretty convinced Sashi is going to trade away ALL their picks this year for 2018 & 2019 picks, and then trade away any good players and tank another system so, by 2020 all their starters will be somehow on their rookie contracts and 1st round draft picks.
(Facetiousness, clearly)
ThxJackVainisi
April 15, 2017 at 09:21 am
When Thompson traded down 6 spots in the 2008 (#30 to #36) he received pick #113, the 14th pick of the fourth round. Cleveland giving up #33 and #52 to move up to #29 isn't "a little steep", it's a fantasy. If the Packers could get picks #33 and #65 that would be fantastic value to move down 4 spots. Getting Cleveland's first pick of the 4th round is more realistic and that would be a better trade than the '08 trade down which netted Jordy Nelson.
sonomaca
April 14, 2017 at 11:54 pm
Trubisky, Watson and Mahomes will likely be top 10 picks. Davis Webb will be QB4, maybe to Houston in the first. Kizer will go late first or early second. That might present the Pack a trading opportunity. Also possible that Hundley commands a 2nd rounder.
sonomaca
April 16, 2017 at 10:44 pm
I think he might. Would you rather have Webb, Kizer, Peterman, or Hundley? This are all 1st or 2nd rounders.
Michael Grunewald
April 15, 2017 at 10:17 am
Let's be honest here. You aren't getting an excellent corner outside of the top 10. Even then, it's a crap shoot. What you are getting at that position is a two to four year project the likes of the busted Gilbert or slow to develop Mo Claiborne....or something in between. You can count on two fingers rookie CBs in the last decade that have made instant splashes...Peterson and Peters.
dobber
April 15, 2017 at 11:55 am
Depends on how you define "instant splash". There have been lots of rookie CB who have stepped in, played, and played well...in the last decade. Even just last year, Eli Apple, Artie Burns, and Vernon Hargreaves all played a lot. Jalen Ramsey played a lot on a really bad team. Between them, they averaged almost 56 tackles and almost 2 picks. The only first-round CB drafted last year who DIDN'T play a lot was William Jackson (CIN) who was put on IR at the end of camp. If you're looking for guys who stepped in an played at a Pro-bowl level, that's a different matter. But certainly last year's CB class, that was weaker than this year's, acquitted itself well.
Whatever the case, House is only on a one-year deal. Even if he plays well, they're still likely to need someone to play CB in 2018, and probably play a lot. CB is a position of high need not just now, but in 2018 and beyond.
WKUPackFan
April 15, 2017 at 04:13 pm
Maurice Claiborne was the 6th overall pick. Gilbert was the 8th overall pick. You need get over your weird fetish about these two players (that's twice you've posted about them) because they're not proving your top 10 point.
Of course, your post is so confusing it's difficult to determine what point you're trying to make.
canadapacker
April 15, 2017 at 08:52 pm
What draft value is Hundley worth? Maybe a team would be willing to take a more practiced ( especially behind AR) QB than an untested rookie. Would the Packers be willing to try and get something this year for him and take the chance and rely on Callaghan as the backup. Move up and take the best player there - be it McCaffery or one of the best linebackers who are expected to go in the top 20.
fthisJack
April 16, 2017 at 09:32 am
i don't think Hundley's stock is enough right now to trade him. give him another year and he amy play really well in preseason and raise his draft stock and look to trade him next year.
also, i like the idea of trading down. swap picks with Cleveland and their 4th rounder. then you have 2 second rounders, 2 4th rounders and 2 fifth rounders for ammo to trade up in the third to get a very good player. that would be 3 players in the top,say, 80. and you still have picks left to add depth or find diamonds in the rough.
CheesyTex
April 16, 2017 at 10:05 am
Why not just Hundley for Browns second pick of first round?
canadapacker
April 16, 2017 at 11:31 am
Or something like that - Dont know if his value is that high ( especially if Cleveland is not looking at a QB as this year's QB class is not ranked high) - While Hundley was hurt for awhile in preseason and there is not that much tape on him compared to Callaghan but there is some tape against NFL players and I believe 1 mop up game. That plus the fact that he has been in the Packers QB school for 2 years should be worth quite a lot. Getting him now versus the Flynn experience ( he could be cut if he doesnt perform unlike if you sign him as a UFA). Just think that it might be worthwhile looking on that. I just dont know what that trade value is worth according to the draft experts.
dobber
April 16, 2017 at 03:41 pm
I'm looking for the little sarcasm markers ~ ~ but I ain't findin' any...
Thegreatreynoldo
April 17, 2017 at 02:42 am
LOL. Why not indeed! If Cleveland would give us pick #33 for Hundley, I'd rent the Concorde to get Hundley to Cleveland and to get that paperwork signed.
al bundy
April 16, 2017 at 03:25 pm
I know it's a dead time but please ted is Ted keep in mind Datone and Nick p who was good one year in four.
Ted dam well better get a corner who has size and make plays. The ones they have not are not very good and I'm being kind. Picks by Ted and the people advising him have been hired. No playmakers. No p lay makers
PatrickGB
April 17, 2017 at 06:36 pm
The article seemed to address the possibility of a team looking at this years QB class and considering drafting one but drafting him too high. Makes sense. That means someone willing to draft one at the end of the first. The means someone wanting to trade back up into late first like we did to get Matthews. This would give us an earlier second round pick. If there is value there I say why not? An extra pick could be helpful.