For what seems like about a decade, decision makers, analysts and pundits across the NFL landscape have steadily downgraded the positional value of inside (off-ball) linebackers. It’s time for this to stop. It’s especially time for the Packers, who desperately need to beef up their LB corps to help ensure that their expected new defensive scheme succeeds.

Now before people get their undies bunched, I am not saying that, from a statistical point of view, linebacker is more important to a defense than edge rusher or corner. The law of large numbers dictates that if you were forced to rank order defensive positions, linebacker would fall outside the top two when it comes to expected added value overall.

But those numbers don’t capture some important elements that remind us not to follow algorithms out the window: First, the impact of having a strong QB of the defense is difficult to measure, but it’s significant, especially as motion-based offenses increase the need for pre-snap reads and communication by the D. Second, today’s top offenses (heavy play action, RPO and attacking the middle of the field), seek to exploit linebackers by putting them in the proverbial blender. The harder that is to do, the less productive those offenses are. Third is scarcity, which as we know from basic economics has a direct effect on value. The percentage of elite talent at linebacker is lower than it is at other positions, in no small part because it is the most difficult and complex defensive position to master. That alone should drive up its value.  

Consider, too, that of the last 10 Super Bowl winning teams, seven of them came to the dance with elite inside linebackers. Or ask Bill Belichick how critical it was to have first Tedy Bruschi, then Jerod Mayo and then Dont’a Hightower to help win multiple championships across two decades. Seattle had Bobby Wagner. Tampa Bay had Lavonte David. Baltimore had Ray Lewis, and now Roquan Smith. Fred Warner has helped the 49ers get to the big game. None of this is coincidence. Can you imagine if the Packers had Luke Kuechly during Aaron Rodgers’ prime years?

Which brings us to free agency and the draft. Justis Mosqueda, a writer/analyst who focuses on Green Bay and whose opinions I respect, believes that under new DC Jeff Hafley the Packers will be playing a lot of 4-3 (you can listen here), because his favored single-high scheme relies on pressuring the quarterback before he can take advantage of single coverage on the perimeter and crossing routes that take a bit of time to develop. It’s an interesting take, and it suggests a heavier use of base defense with off-ball linebackers focusing primarily on stopping the run and rushing the passer. 

I’m a bit skeptical, given the way Brian Gutekunst, and Hafley himself, have talked about how the NFL is now primarily a 4-2-5 league. The major differences, beyond whether you field two or three, are in how you deploy your safeties, and what type of linebackers — body type and skill set — you want. I believe that improved coverage skills should be priority 1 for upgrading at LB, given how often teams are bringing safeties down into the box, to help with run fits and hemming in mobile quarterbacks. As much as possible, you want to be able to win by rushing just four, and then getting creative with blitz packages. This doesn’t mean we don’t need linebackers who are solid in run coverage, or who can rush the passer. If you’re offering me Micah Parsons, sure, but he’s a hybrid freak. Meanwhile, the league has woken up to the value of tight ends and even multiple tight-end sets. Linebackers who can cover help mitigate the threat, not to mention dealing with increasingly talented pass-catching running backs. 

Either way, strengthening the linebacking corps is a clear need for Green Bay this off-season, and both Justis and I rank the position as second only to safety in priority. Quay Walker has a high ceiling but remains a work in progress. Isaiah McDuffie has flashed but is a question mark, though Hafley is high on him from their time together at Boston College. De’Vondre Campbell will and should be gone. Even if Walker and McDuffie improve, there is currently no depth or competition. Justis, meanwhile, is thinking the Packers will play three off-ball linebackers more often than not, and thus need a third stud.

This is why I have been beating the drum for a free-agent signing such as Patrick Queen. The upcoming draft class is paper thin, with no linebackers cracking the top 75 on many draft boards. A couple of the best free agents are aging veterans, such as Wagner and David, for whom the Packers should not write big checks. Others with at least some coverage skills include the Seahawks’ Jordyn Brooks and Drue Tranquill of the Chiefs, who had a stellar post-season and has distinguished himself against the pass. He turns 29 when the upcoming season starts, plays with high motor and has prototypical body measurements (6’2”, 240) for modern linebackers. Frankie Luvu in Carolina is perhaps tops on the market, but only for pass rush and run D. That would be nice to have, but an expensive luxury. 

Come draft time, a frustrating reality is that this class is weakest at Green Bay’s greatest needs, except offensive line. It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which the Packers take multiple linebackers in mid-late rounds to maximize their chances of success. To get to the Super Bowl, you need more than just average players at the position. GPG.