The last time these two teams met, Aaron Rodgers had a broken thumb and the Packers managed to end drives at the Lions 1,5, 17, 22, and 38 yard lines without any points. They lost by 6 despite out-gaining the Lions 389-254.

WHEN THE LIONS HAVE THE BALL

The Lions offense has definitely been their strength this year. 

Jared Goff has put up good numbers, but he has been much less effective outdoor than indoor. In his 6 games played outdoors this year, he has 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. That's a far cry from his 24 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in his 10 dome games.

Goff grew up in California and played college football in California before starting his professional career in California, then joining a dome team. Coming out of college, his biggest knocks were playing in the cold or rain. His career passer rating in games played below 40 degrees is 74.9 with only 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.

A big part of why he's been unproductive outdoors and in the cold is his small hands. 

He only has 9 inch hands, which is one of the smallest among NFL starters. Even Kyler Murray - known as the smallest starting quarterback in the league - has 9.5 inch hands. This makes it harder to grip the ball in the cold, leading to ineffective passing. I think this will be a huge factor for the Lions, who depend heavily on one receiver in their passing game.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the biggest receiving threat Detroit has, especially after they traded TJ Hockenson to Minnesota during the season. St. Brown is physical and sure-handed with 100 catches for over 1100 yards on the year and he was DEtroit's leading receiver the first time they played.

Detroit has a couple nice complementary receivers in Kalif Raymond and DJ Chark, but the wildcard could be rookie Jameson Williams.

After starting the year on IR, Williams is slowly being worked into the offense and played 18 snaps (a career-high) last week. While he only has 1 catch on the year, it was a 41 yard touchdown. His only other touch was a 40 yard run. He hasn't put up fantasy numbers yet, but he has incredible speed and could be an impact in some features of the offense. If Dan Campbell was saving him for anything, it would be this game.

The Packers, luckily, have a couple speedy defensive backs in Jaire Alexander and Darnell Savage. If Alexander wants to back up his big play from last week, he will probably lock onto St. Brown, which could leave Savage (now playing slot) to run with Jameson Williams.

On the ground, Jamaal Williams has been a consistent grinder. The kind of back who would thrive in tonight's conditions. With Goff less-than-stellar history in this kind of weather, Williams will almost certainly carry a heavy load. De'Vondre Campbell has been ramping up his play since returning from injury and will need to be physical in the middle.

The strength of the Lions offense - who rank 4th in points and 3rd in yards - is their offensive line.

This is where the Packers defense will really be tested. Detroit is very good up front, but All Pro center Frank Ragnow is dealing with a toe injury.

Ragnow's injury may make things a little easier to generate interior pressure, but Jarran Reed, TJ Slaton, and Devonte Wyatt will need to help Kenny Clark disrupt things if they don't want to see this turn into a big scoring affair. Kingsley Enagbare has been performing beyond expectations in relief of Rashan Gary, but this will be his biggest test yet. The Packers can bring a safety in the box and sell out on the run a little tonight and make Goff prove he can move the ball in this weather before going into nickel formations.

More than anything, the Packers defense needs to play with the intensity and confidence they did last week.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

It's hard to overstate how incredibly improbable the Packers poor scoring output was the last time they played.

On their first two drives, they got to the Lions 5 yard line and 1 yard line and threw interceptions. After two more drives into Lions territory that ended with no points, they made it to the Lions 22 and threw another interception.

The Packers played aggressive and chose not to kick field goals three times. They lost by 6.

Coaching decisions played into this loss, but a bigger part of it was Aaron Rodgers's thumb, which now appears to be much better. Another big part of this Christian Watson had not yet developed.

On top of it all, the Packers offensive line has come on in the second half of the season.

In short, this offense looks much better.

But so does the Lions defense.

Despite ranking 29th in points allowed and dead last in yards allowed, the Detroit D has held opponents to 17 or fewer points in 3 of their last 5 games. Granted, those weren't great offense they faced, but it's a unit with a little confidence.

At this point in the year, with one game to play, and a motivating coach like Dan Campbell, that may mean more than the rankings, where the Lions rank 30th in passing yards allowed and 29th in rushing yards allowed.

Detroit doesn't have a true identity or strength on defense, meaning the Packers can take a balanced approach.

The conditions are perfect for a strong running game tonight. The Packers offensive line has been strong, Aaron Jones has been productive in limited carries, and AJ Dillon has been looking more physical down the stretch. Against a Lions unit that has allowed 520 yards rushing the last two weeks, Green Bay should look to establish the run, then take their shots with a healthy, fully-functional receiving corps.

Aaron Rodgers has played within himself this year and hasn't forced too much. Tonight, he can cement his season without needing to play hero ball.

If Matt LaFleur learned anything from their last meeting, he will take the points whenever he can and score enough to win this.

OTHER NOTES

The Lions have the fewest turnovers of any team in the league (15) - and that includes a 5 turnover outing against Dallas. They only have 1 in their last 5 games.

The Packers defense has 8 takeaways in their last 2 games.

Jamaal Williams made fun of the Vikings for wearing "little fancy cute shoes" and says the Lions will wear the proper cleats for Lambeau Field.

FINAL THOUGHTS

What a year.

A month ago, this looked pretty improbable, but tonight, we get to enjoy a win-or-go-home final game to either complete what seems like a run of destiny, or lead us heart-broken into draft analysis.

With the way this team came together last week, I don't think it will be the latter.

The Packers are as healthy as they've been, they're peaking at the right time, and they just put together their best game of the season, with complete dominance in all three phases of the game.

I know Detroit has some confidence, too, and I expect Dan Campbell to have his team fired up. The Lions will be going all-out and might even go for it on every 4th down. They will play hard.

But I think the Packers will match their intensity.

Packers 24, Lions 20