Packers vs Bye: Game(less)day Preview - 2023 Week 6

The Packers don't play this week, but there's still a preview! Today, we'll look at what happened with the Packers so far this season, and what they should do going forward.

The last time the Packers had a bye, they had just beaten the Bears, to improve to 5-8 and set the table for an unlikely (and ultimately failed) run at a playoff spot.

This year, their bye is coming much earlier... but it's still coming when they are below .500.

Let's take a look at the state of the Packers and what they can do going forward the rest of the season.

 

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

The Packers came into the season with a plan to lean on the run game as their new starting quarterback meshed with his young receivers.

David Bakhtiari is out for the season, while Elgton Jenkins and Aaron Jones have missed time with injuries.

That put a wrench in the plans.

The run game has suffered noticeably, and the pass game has been under unforeseen pressure as a result.

The Packers haven't lit any scoreboards on fire, but they've shown spurts of high-end play, particular in putting the Bears away late and rallying to beat the Saints.

Don't forget that Jordan Love, though he's been in the league a few years, only had one start coming into the season. And his receivers and tight ends are all rookies or second year guys who didn't even play all of last year. It's unreasonable to expect these guys to have precision chemistry, no matter how talented they are.

The results so far have been underwhelming, but it's early, and this season is about growth and talent evaluation.

So far, Jordan Love have shown inconsistency. There have been some great moments, but his deep ball accuracy has not come around yet. Detractors will point to his completion percentage, but supporters point out his long average depth of target. Put those two together and you see that Matt LaFleur is calling a lot of deep balls. It seems this is a part of Jordan Love's development. While offseason reps are nice, the young quarterback and his young receivers need game reps to get on the same page. So far, that is a work in progress.

Doubs, Watson, Wicks, and Reed have all taken turns shining, but none have really taken over as a consistent threat yet. At tight end, Luke Musgrave is in a similar boat. He's shown the ability to separate and move well after the catch, but has not shown he can consistently read the ball in the air or get on the same page with Jordan Love.

This passing game is a work in progress, but, just 5 games into the season, there's no reason to give up on a very talented, very green group, that is working on coming together.

However, at running back, AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor are looking worse than expected in extended duty. AJ Dillon looks like he will never be ready for lead-back status and Patrick Taylor looks like he's trying to play himself off the roster.

They simply aren't making progress, not that they're getting any help from the line.

Zach Tom looks good at right tackle and Jon Runyan has been decent at right guard, but Josh Myers has regressed and Royce Newman was downright bad in relief of Jenkins. Rasheed Wallace looks like a project, but at least there is hope for him to develop. 

The offense is in growth and evaluation mode, and there are very few final answers this early in the season.

Going forward, growth and evaluation should continue to be the focus.

In the pass game, this means more passes to Watson, Doubs, and Musgrave to help them get in sync with their young quarterback.

In the run game, Emmanuel Wilson might as well get the bulk of the carries with Aaron Jones out. Jones should be the lead back when healthy, but we know what Dillon is. He's a complementary player who cannot handle workhorse status. There is no need to keep running him unless the Packers somehow find themselves in a wild card race in cold weather with Jones out and Wilson ineffective. Running Wilson will let the coaching staff see if he can capitalize on the flashes he showed in the preseason. That will determine if he has a future with the team or becomes another preseason superstar memory.

With Bakhtiari lost for the season, th Packers will probably keep Walker in the lineup to develop and be evaluated. Yosh Nijman would probably provide more stability, but the Packers are not in win-now mode, and the team seems comfortable in knowing what they have in him.

On the interior line, Jenkins and Runyan are a solid duo, but Myers has been regressing. If any backup linemen want to try out at center, I would give them a shot.

 

WHEN THE PACKERS ARE ON DEFENSE

On defense, Joe Barry continues to line Preston Smith up on All Pro receivers.

I understand that defenses are always at a disadvantage in the mismatch game, but there is clearly something about their defensive sets that other teams key on and the Packers have not adapted to.

However, on the whole, for all the teeth-gnashing, the Packers defense has been pretty good outside of the Detroit game.

Rashan Gary has been incredible in limited snaps as he returns from his ACL injury.

Unfortunately, Jaire Alexander, Kenny Clark, and De'Vondre Campbell, the teams other All Pro level talents, have not been at peak productivity. There have been injuries, but based on how the season they've played this season, they may be on the back end of their primes. Preston Smith, meanwhile, looks past his prime.

None of these guys are playing terrible, but they have not been making splash plays with the regularity they had in the past.

There have been some bright spots, too. Despite the occasional bone-headed play, Quay Walker looks like a difference-maker who is on the rise. And Rudy Ford has been putting together a solid year at safety, where the defense had the biggest question marks heading into the season.

The Packers defense clearly has been prioritizing stopping the pass more than stopping the run and, while that hasn't always been effective, the unit has been decent.

Going forward, younger players like Lukas Van Ness, Devonte Wyatt, and Karl Brooks should probably be getting more snaps. Now is the year to help them grow and learn what the team has in them. Carrington Valentine probably fits that category, as well.

Of course, making some schematic changes would be a welcome experiment with the rest of the season, too. The creativity we saw in how the defensive line was deployed in the preseason has returned to the mean, where two or three guys predictably push straight forward each play.

If the team finds itself out of playoff contention early, it may even present an opportunity for another coach to take a turn at DC and see if they can get more out of this group.

 

OTHER NOTES

Anders Carlson is still at 100%. Who saw that coming after watching him in training camp?

Keisean Nixon has been largely ineffective as a returner. Whether that is because teams pay more attention to him after his incredible season last year or if playing more snaps on defense has left him winded for returns remains to be seen. In any case, having him bring the ball out of the end zone every time, and routinely getting stopped well short of the 20 yard line, should probably stop until they figure it out.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Packers enter this bye with an offensive EPA right around 0 and a defensive EPA right around 0. They have a point differential of 0 and are in the middle third of the league for both points scored and points allowed. The are within one game of .500 (having played an odd number of games).

In short, they are about as average as a team could possibly be.

But that's not the whole story of this team.

This is the youngest team in the league and this year is about growth more than winning. We've seen Jordan Love make some mistakes, but nothing that appears systemically uncorrectable. We've also seem him show a confident command of the offense and watched his team rally around him.

With David Bakhtiari out, the Packers can't give Love the protection they wanted to. At the same time, they need to keep the passing game going to develop Love and the young receivers. Having a first year starting quarterback throwing to a bunch of inexperienced receivers while missing their best blockers isn't a recipe for wins, but it will give these guys a chance to practice their passing progressions in game situations.

As for the defense, they haven't actually been too bad. Getting Rashan Gary back to full speed will definitely help the group, but there's no reason to not give younger players more snaps.

Coming into the season, we knew it would be a year of growth for a young team.

Heading into the early bye week, we've already seen some impressive flashes... and some pathetic failures... but that's the nature of a young team.

The remainder of this season won't be judged on wins and losses, but on player progression.

That's a healthy mindset for us all as we get deeper into the season.

Buckle up, it's going to continue to be a bumpy ride.

 

 

 

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Bruce Irons has played, coached, and studied football for decades. Best-selling author of books such as A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Draft, A Fan's Guide To Understanding The NFL Salary Cap, and A Fan's Guide To NFL Free Agency Hits And Misses, Bruce contributes to CheeseHeadTV and PackersForTheWin.com.

Follow Bruce Irons on Twitter at @BruceIronsNFL.

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1 points
 

Comments (14)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Spock's picture

October 15, 2023 at 07:08 am

"Packers will probably keep Walker in the lineup to develop and be evaluated. Yosh Nijman would probably provide more stability, but the Packers are not in win-now mode, and the team seems comfortable in knowing what they have in him." doesn't mesh with your other statement, "With David Bakhtiari out, the Packers can't give Love the protection they wanted to. At the same time, they need to keep the passing game going to develop Love and the young receivers. Having a first year starting quarterback throwing to a bunch of inexperienced receivers " . Not playing Yosh, who is serviceable (maybe better than), when your QB is getting killed doesn't make sense to me.

4 points
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coolhand's picture

October 15, 2023 at 04:03 pm

Why is Newman ahead of Rhyan on the depth chart? We KNOW what we have in Newman and should be looking for his replacement. Also Myers is a disaster. Why has Wilson barely played? MLF and his staff seem to not want to play the young guys unless they absolutely have to. A young QB and his receivers cannot grow together if the QB doesn't have time to throw. Also, the play calling and game plans in general do not help in my view and the lack of basic fundamentals such as blocking and tackling show a lack of priorty by this coaching staff.

3 points
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Tundraboy's picture

October 15, 2023 at 08:45 pm

Great questions! Does anyone in the local media ask any of these? I wonder.

2 points
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TxFred's picture

October 15, 2023 at 08:52 am

All the sports bobbleheads talk about the youngest team in the league. Very true.
Know what else this is? VERY COACHABLE!!!
What the fuck are the position coaches doing?
This team is STARVING to be coached on basic, fundamentals of run & pass blocking!
LVN is useless. He needs help on rushing techniques. College muscle is not working.
MLF needs to focus on basics first. Forget the "high end" & entertainment shit. Basics. Basics. 1st rounders or not!!!
Coaches are not doing potential All-Pro's any favors. They are wasting time & going through the motions. And getting their ass kicked on National TV twice.

5 points
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haevs6's picture

October 15, 2023 at 09:24 pm

We are the youngest team because of many regrettable draft picks for many years. Look at our draft history, (Please do). I will not pick it apart, but that is why we are so young. We have so many misses, so much of continually draft at same positions because we never did it correctly in years prior. Really tired of this young stuff, we didn't accomplish a draft & develop philosophy, look back at our drafts from 2017 and beyond.......Our D is not that young, look at the years of experience on average.....we are young because of past draft misses or failure to find FA's to help

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

October 15, 2023 at 11:19 am

Thanks again TX, I am loving your points!

On one point, Love and his depth of target and completion percentage as contribution factors to the offense struggling.

Ar became very adept at buying time and eschewing the short gains for looking for the hero play long ball. I think Love picked up some of that bad habit while learning on the bench. AR didnt always do that. He learned it over time and took his shots in mostly appropriate spots when he was in his heyday (not the last few years hero ball ad nauseum).

Pass plays often have an 'over the top' option. That is to manipulate the defense most times. It is not meant to be the go-to route most of the time. Love needs to be reined in on those target selections and brought back to the 'move the chains' type of reads and plays. His receivers need to be brought into the loop on this strategy and told to refine their routes and get open and on the spot in the intermediate and short routes because THAT is the focus of this offense! In other words, this offense needs an IDENTITY that matches the players, talents, scheme and experience of the current team. The deep shots will come, but not as hope, but as success.

2 points
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Johnblood27's picture

October 15, 2023 at 03:32 pm

Just a quick note...

How many posters wanted GB to select Moody from Michigan instead of Carlson?

LOL - SF drops from the ranks of the undefeated with a very makable miss from the ex-Wolverine!

2 points
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coolhand's picture

October 15, 2023 at 04:07 pm

A surprise miss by Moody. He was always solid at Michigan.

1 points
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stockholder's picture

October 15, 2023 at 03:45 pm

still think Love is problem #1.
The Browns elevate a Qb.
And they beat the 49ers today.

1 points
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coolhand's picture

October 15, 2023 at 04:06 pm

Browns won with good defense in the 2nd half. Then played barryball on that final SF drive and got lucky. When has our defense shut a team down for an entire half?

1 points
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Tundraboy's picture

October 15, 2023 at 08:52 pm

Hmm. Been awhile. I'll have to get back to you on that one! Lol

0 points
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Johnblood27's picture

October 15, 2023 at 08:54 pm

how about new orleans in the second half?

how about Atlanta in the first 3 quarters?

Oh ye of short memory...

0 points
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Tundraboy's picture

October 15, 2023 at 10:30 pm

I am getting up there for sure.

0 points
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Tundraboy's picture

October 17, 2023 at 07:23 am

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

Lock up MLF in the Janitors closet.

-1 points
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