Packers Stock Report: Week 16

A 12-3 record a clear shot at the number one seed. The Green Bay Packers may have dodged their last bullet with Sunday night’s win over the Tennessee Titans. The Packers didn’t look back after establishing a 19-0 lead to finish with an outcome of 40-14. It was the fourth time this year that Green Bay has scored at least 40 points. Tennessee was a great test with the playoffs forthcoming and the Packers aced it. However, they still have one last game against the Chicago Bears, who are vying for a wild-card spot. Luckily for Green Bay, as long as they take care of business in week 17, they will have a bye week for the second year in a row.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, here is a look at the Packers’ stock report from week 16:

Buy

Davante Adams

Another week, another three-touchdown performance for Adams, his second for the season. Adams caught 11 of his 12 targets against the Titans and finished with 142 yards. No matter what defenses throw at them, it seems like nothing can stop the connection between Adams and his quarterback Aaron Rodgers. On his third touchdown, Adams was double covered in the red zone but somehow still managed to shake both defenders for an easy eight-yard score. Totaling 109 receptions, 1,328 yards, an NFL-leading 17 touchdowns, all while missing two games, Adams is a clear frontrunner for Offensive Player of the Year.

Red Zone Offense

Barring any significant changes, Green Bay is going to finish first in the NFL in red zone percentage. The Packers have only finished first in one other season (2012) with Rodgers as the starting quarterback. They have also never finished over 70 percent and are currently at an astounding 78.57 percent. Green Bay capitalized once again on their red zone opportunities, going 4/5 against Tennessee.

AJ Dillon

With Jamaal Williams out and Aaron Jones battling a hip injury, Dillon stepped up huge with a 124-yard, two-touchdown performance. The Packers drafted Dillon in the second round, knowing he would be able to punish defenses once temperatures dropped. Sunday was the perfect example at a snowy Lambeau where Dillon wreaked havoc against the Titans defense. He nearly broke double-digit tackles for the game, including a couple on a 30-yard touchdown run during the third quarter. Dillon’s week 16 performance provided a hopeful glimpse of things to come for the 247-pound running back.

Rashan Gary

Gary is already well on his way toward a breakout season, and his outing against Tennessee was just another installment. He was a factor against the run and the pass, finishing with five total tackles and multiple pressures against Ryan Tannehill. His pressure on a third-down play in the second quarter helped force the interception for Darnell Savage. The Packers' defense is noticeably better when Gary is on the field as he’s become a difference-maker on a weekly basis.

Darnell Savage

Savage made a nice break on the ball for his fourth interception on the year, but he could have had a pick-six if he held onto another great read in the third quarter. Dropped interception aside, Savage had a great game of five total tackles, three pass breakups, and the takeaway. Savage has been an easy buy for the last month, flaunting his ability to fly around and make great plays. He’s emerging as one of the up-and-coming safeties in the league.

Sell

Draft Haters

A lot of people had something negative to say about Green Bay’s draft back in April, but no one is talking now that the team is 12-3 and in the driver’s seat for the number one seed in the NFC. Yes, Jordan Love hasn’t played a snap this year, but the early returns on the 2020 draft class have still been pretty good. Dillon’s latest performance speaks for itself, however, pre-injury Josiah Deguara, as well as Kamal Martin, Jon Runyan, and Vernon Scott have all played well in meaningful snaps in 2020. Brian Gutekunst’s latest draft class is looking like a success and the year isn’t even over yet.

 

 

 

Brandon Carwile is a Packers writer who also enjoys watching and breaking down film. Follow him on Twitter @PackerScribe.

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Comments (46)

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Jonathan Spader's picture

December 30, 2020 at 12:20 pm

Buy or sell on ESB/MVS?

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Stroh's picture

December 30, 2020 at 12:29 pm

Buy ESB, sell MVS.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 30, 2020 at 12:50 pm

Sell both

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Bure9620's picture

December 30, 2020 at 01:29 pm

You would be selling everything they do including blocking and stretching the field to open up underneath routes. Pretty important for as many mesh routes as we run.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 30, 2020 at 05:48 pm

Exactly what I want. Anybody worthy of an NFL uniform could do as well or better getting as many snaps as they get with Rodgers playing like he's playing.

They're replacement level players.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 31, 2020 at 12:36 pm

So Hank....what exactly is the problem with the receivers on the league’s #1 passing offense?

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HankScorpio's picture

December 31, 2020 at 01:04 pm

I have not watched any KC games so I don't have the faintest clue.

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rlattin's picture

December 30, 2020 at 12:53 pm

they do what is asked, even if it does not show on the stat sheet.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 30, 2020 at 05:47 pm

MVS and ESB don't get asked to play ST. I think it's a problem with the WRs that are down the pecking order a bit cannot contribute on STs.

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Stroh's picture

December 30, 2020 at 10:14 pm

They have to do everything asked. They aren't good enough to make big plays regularly so they have to do all the grunt work asked of them. Its called job preservation.

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Coldworld's picture

December 30, 2020 at 05:11 pm

Hold on both. One scripted play and no targets but heavily covered is not enough to signify anything on either.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 30, 2020 at 05:36 pm

If not being targeted as a WR doesn't say something about how well he plays, what does?

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CoachDino's picture

December 30, 2020 at 10:55 pm

Thats a huge leap in logic. If your #1 rec is open and he just happens to be the best in the NFL why would you look elsewhere? Film study shows these guys getting open and when Devante was out they saw more targets and the team won.
No one claims these guys are Elite #2,3 or 4 rec. What is obvious is they are great for this team. That's what matters, not if they would be great on any team, with any QB playing in any scheme. That's inmaterial. Now if your 12-3 have the best passing game in the league how much better are you if you sign an Elite #2 which are often 1As? There is very little incremental gain and the cost is 10mil a year, so who are you not signing? Bachk, Clark, no extension for Devante? Just for a "possible" small incremental gain that carries little impact in winning.? The value of their blocking is much higher for this team than on most. Why knock it, it's working out great for the Packers.

MVS "is" a weapon. He has Elite traits, period. Yes, he has poor hands and in my opinion doesn't adjust well to the long pass. But the gain outweighs the drops. Plus he just showed out with a what, 6 for 6 performance. He is young, cheap, effective with a ton of upside.

People "you can't always get what you want" be it availability or affordability.

sorry but cliche answers that sound witty but in fact are completely inaccurate naw at me a bit. Its like the best talker comes out on top not the best idea. People can be lazy and little cliches are alot easier to go with than thinking and work (research, facts, stats, examples, etc)

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Coldworld's picture

December 31, 2020 at 08:51 am

Do you (HS) have any insight as to how this offense is intended to operate? It seems you are still thinking MM.

This scheme is about pick your poison and using players to open what the opponent is giving. Maybe you should read more if Dusty’s analysis.

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HankScorpio's picture

December 31, 2020 at 10:30 am

Holy moses, there are actually people arguing that a WRs that doesn't get targeted is a good thing for the team. I'm glad I'm not so invested in arguing for him that I'd say something like that.

The Janis-azation of MVS is now complete.

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dobber's picture

December 31, 2020 at 10:52 am

"The Janis-azation of MVS is now complete."

That's one helluva Scrabble word...

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Stroh's picture

December 30, 2020 at 12:24 pm

Dodged the last bullet?! Uhm FYI, Chi has won 3 in a row and still has a very. tough Defense. Even Mitch is playing well since taking over as the starter again. Chicago is playing to get into the playoffs. It would be a MAJOR mistake not to consider them a live bullet!

Chicago is likely to give the Packers all they want in the final game of the year. Both teams will be highly motivated and the Packers better bring their A game. This won't be a coronation dance, it going to be a knock down, drag out fist fight!

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Swisch's picture

December 30, 2020 at 01:36 pm

Excellent word of caution, Stroh.
The Bears have made an amazing rebound from their midseason slump, with an astounding turnaround by Trubisky.
Add in the historic rivalry, us being on the road, and the high stakes for both teams -- it should be a fearsome fight.
I hope the Packers come out just as energized and focused as against the Titans, knowing that one of the prizes is a bye week in the playoffs to recuperate a little from a season of wear and tear.
I'm also thinking, even with Trubisky's improvement, it would probably be good to play our defense much the same way as against the Titans -- with an emphasis on stopping the run.
Even if we do give up a big pass play or two, it seems better than allowing those agonizingly long drives. Our offense can make up for a couple of mistakes by the defense if they do happen (and with smart play by our secondary, I'm hopeful they can be avoided).
As always, it seems the best approach on defense (and for that matter, offense) is to mix things up to keep the opponent guessing.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 30, 2020 at 03:52 pm

Shut down Montgomery, Dbl Robinson and keep Trubitsky in the pocket. Win. This Bear Week has more excitement than the classic battle in last year's opener for Matt LaFluer.

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Stroh's picture

December 30, 2020 at 06:15 pm

Definitely need to play good run D to stop Montgomery. I'd just put Jaire on Robinson to shut him down. Keep Mitch in the pocket and keep contain to keep Mitch frkm rolling out. Keep Mitch's legs from being a factor.

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Coldworld's picture

December 31, 2020 at 09:09 am

It’s not that dissimilar. Montgomery isn’t Henry, but his performance is almost as critical to getting the Bears O going. Moreover, the key to Trubisky has always been containment and pressure.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 31, 2020 at 11:01 am

Maybe call it shade Robinson. Trubitsky will force it to him. Jimmy G is playing the soft zones and post-ups, I would go man on him.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 31, 2020 at 04:06 am

True. Chicago probably has more confidence since their three game winning streak.

As it happens, Chicago played teams with the 30th, 31st, and 32nd ranked defenses. OTOH, teams play the team that's scheduled.

We shall see how it all shakes out. Divisional games usually are tough games.

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Swisch's picture

December 30, 2020 at 01:41 pm

If it was still before Christmas, and I was about 50 years younger, I'd be asking for those yellow shoes worn by Davante.
I'd also want some king of instructional video to learn his fast and fancy footwork for different routes, as well as drills to help me to be able to get my feet going that way.
Ah, for my days of school in the 1970s when my preoccupations were football, basketball, and baseball -- including cool athletic shoes and learning tips from the pros (oh, and choosing a uniform number based on a favorite player).
P.S. By the way, while Davante is awesome as usual, I'm buying major stock in MVS and Lazard going forward, while also investing some in ESB and Austin.

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ShooterMcGee's picture

December 30, 2020 at 01:46 pm

It seems like now everybody loves our draft, including every writer here on Cheesehead TV. I will at least admit to being critical of many of the picks in recent years, although I know next to nothing. I didn't like the Rashan Gary pick, thinking a DT like Wilkens or lawrence would be more useful since we signed 2 OLBS. Then this year with a great WR class, and a need, we didn't draft 1. Would Tee Higgins, Pittman, or Shenault be of use now? Absolutely. Will they be more valuable than Love in the future. Don't know. But I understand drafting a QB for the future. What I don't understand is the revisionist history whereby everybody, excluding you of course, is a "draft hater." I am pleased to be wrong about Gary, Savage, Dillon in the 2 nd round, lack of drafting a DL and ILB, etc.... May I be wrong all the way to the Lombardi trophy..

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 31, 2020 at 04:17 am

The 13-3 and 12-3 records are an indictment of Mike McCarthy. As a Mike McCarthy-hater, I think I've been proven correct.

There is no doubt that Gute's arrow as a GM is pointing up.

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Coldworld's picture

December 31, 2020 at 09:06 am

In all fairness, while late MM was an exercise in sclerotic thinking, I think we also have to recall the mess that was the roster he had in that time. It’s not an excuse, but it may have forced and amplified.

Our roster was full of holes and our overall talent level on the 53 had declined dramatically. No coach was going to prosper. If you recall, it seems quite likely that McCarthy wasn’t getting the players he wanted, which led to ructions with Ball.

To get back from that, for which I blame Murphy, took what looks like an inspired realization from Murphy. Ball was sidelined from actual roster influence, Gute promoted and a risk taken on a coach with a vision to modernized the approach and shape of this team. Murphy chose LaFleur and backed him. Gute is very clearly giving him a roster in the shape LaFleur wanted and looking to build a sustainable team for the future.

Coming back this far from MM and that roster this quickly is nothing short of amazing even with Rodgers. Look at what it’s brought out of him. LaFleur has growing to do. Gute hasn’t succeeded in every choice, but the first is inevitable in a young first time head coach and the second is something even the greatest GMs can’t avoid.

I’ve been very critical of Murphy for sleeping while we declined visibly and for the structure he put in place, but at this point, he seems likely to have more than redeemed himself. Now if Pettine has had an epiphany, we might be even better off. Special Teams had better catch up.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 31, 2020 at 10:38 am

He had Jones and Williams for two years and never used a running attack. He could have been an advocate for Cook to be re-signed. He got a bit lazy.

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byu.tech's picture

December 30, 2020 at 02:43 pm

trash article.
draft was a nightmare for the first 4 picks. even if dillon got a nice game.
that is a fact.
the second part of the draft was fine and we all knew it was our only hope.

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stockholder's picture

December 30, 2020 at 03:03 pm

The experts agree with you. A Gm usually takes players to fill a Need/BPA. The second part: Obviously the players he replaced should have been cut in the first place.

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HighPlainsDrifter's picture

December 31, 2020 at 04:37 am

"The experts agree with you."

There is not a single expert who agrees with this moron.

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Guam's picture

December 30, 2020 at 03:32 pm

You can't evaluate a draft in its first year much less decide it is a nightmare. Dillon and Deguara have shown flashes and nobody knows how Jordan Love will turn out. I was not and still am not a fan of the Love pick, but he could turn out to be the 3rd consecutive HOF QB for the Packers. This draft will be judged fairly in about three years - just like every other draft.

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egbertsouse's picture

December 30, 2020 at 04:43 pm

You are correct, sir! I’m not ready to give Gutey the GM of the year award just yet nor am I ready to put Dillon in the HOF after one game. I will say that Gutey has large cajones for ignoring areas of need to go for the guys he wanted. If it works out, he may move into the pantheon of great GMs with Ron Wolf. If it doesn’t, he could end up scouting for the Jets.

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jannes bjornson's picture

December 31, 2020 at 10:58 am

1. ILB need: Barnes and Martin have both been starters. 2. Need: Power running game and they drafted a big ,fast, RB and a lead blocker HB/FB type guy who lit up the AAC for three years for the Bearcats, similar style to Kelce just a bit lighter in the pants. 3. Sars-2 Cov and the idea of quality Quarterback depth come into the Picture of any risk based decision making ( see: Denver Broncos) 4. Big Ten Linemen added Wagner, Runyan, Stepaniak, Hanson All Pac 12. 5. Vernon Scott a steal at the seven pick. Apparently the guy doesn't play fantasy football.

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ShooterMcGee's picture

December 30, 2020 at 07:25 pm

If we win the Superbowl I won't care about the last draft. However, if we fall short because our D-line is run over, our ILBs are exposed, or a lack of WR weapons is an achilles heel, then I will lament how BG drafted for the future. Just getting to the playoffs is not enough. C'mon man we're not the Bears!

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PatrickGB's picture

December 30, 2020 at 03:24 pm

“Buy low and sell high”. So for me that would mean ESB-Lazard-Taylor over Adams. Williams over Dillon and maybe Kirksey over Barnes.
But I doubt it will happen.

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MITM's picture

December 30, 2020 at 03:55 pm

Our best rookie this season wasnt even drafted, but sure was a godsend. When I found out they signed Barnes and he played HS ball with Love, I figured that was a huge part of the reason why he chose to sign here. It wasnt. He signed here because he bet on himself and took a look at our depth chart at ILB. And he made it happen. Kamal Martin doesnt seem to be AS polished as Barnes, but boy does he look like he is going to be very good as well. Martin could take a leap next year similar to Gary and Savage. FINALLY SOME ILBs oh my god

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Stroh's picture

December 30, 2020 at 10:19 pm

Barnes signed in GB because the Packers have an extensive history of giving udfa a legitimate opportunity to earn a roster spot. Unlike most organizations.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 31, 2020 at 04:19 am

That is probably a part of it. I don't know why you have downvotes for this.

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Leatherhead's picture

December 31, 2020 at 12:28 pm

Because giving a chickenshit downvote is easier than presenting a coherent argument.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

December 30, 2020 at 04:20 pm

I yelled "Not Gary" at the TV last year right before they said the pick. LOL, I'm happy to be wrong.

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dobber's picture

December 30, 2020 at 05:17 pm

Ditto...and ditto.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

December 31, 2020 at 04:21 am

Ditto and Not-Yet-Ready-To-Say-Ditto.

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Hematite's picture

December 31, 2020 at 04:55 am

Being a Michigan Wolverines fan who watches all of Michigan's games, never did I see Gary as a first round pick.
I ordinary root hard for any Michigan player to make a statement for the Packers..
I just never thought of Gary as being adequate for a first round player.
Now I'm seeing some spark from him.
Hopefully he will continue to get better because I will be happy to eat crow.

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wildbill's picture

December 30, 2020 at 05:24 pm

The two things that bothered me about the Love and Dillion picks was not that we drafted them but where they were drafted. First I don’t think we had to trade up to get Love and then with a straight face say “ he fell into our laps”. On Dillion I think he would be there in the third. Just my option of course as we will never know. Also it’s the “gold zone” now, lol

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Leatherhead's picture

December 31, 2020 at 11:24 am

Buy the offense. I’ve said that all year. It has scored 24 or more points in 13 out of 15 games, winning 12 of them, with the only exception being the 4- turnover game In Indianapolis. It’s hit 34 or more in seven games. It’s a top passing offense in so many ways.....interceptions, sacks,yards/attempt, TDs, QB rating.....and a very good rushing offense. It works despite losing players to injury.

The defense, and Pettine, have been unfairly maligned. They’ve held half our opponents to 21 or less. They’ve been even tougher at home. Without turnovers or special teams gifts, people don’t score much on us. That’s a fact.

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