Packers Mock Draft Monday 7.0

Ross will provide a semi-weekly roundup of national mock drafts relating to the Packers picks.  He'll also utilize Fanspeak's software to do a few mock drafts of his own.  In 2019 the Packers will pick six times in the first four rounds, so those are the rounds that we will focus on.

This mock draft was done using Matt Miller's board, user-voted team needs and the "difficult" algorithm.

 

Matt is about as high as I am on TJ Hockenson, ranking him as the #10 player in this draft.  Despite that fact, teams over and over passed on TE and Hockenson was available at #30.  This an absolute dream scenario for the Packers.  Burns and Hockenson give them a player with an extremely high ceiling and a player with an extremely high floor.  Adderley starts at safety from day 1.  Montgomery takes over for Jamaal Williams in the RB2 role and Samia enters a competition with Nico Siragusa and a free agent for the RG position.  Preston Williams is a huge boom or bust player with real character concerns.  That said, teaming him up with Whitted alleviates a lot of those concerns.  I'm not here for putting hands on a woman but it appears to be an isolated incident.  

Roundup

Anthony Rocchio, Pack to the Future - Clelin Ferrell, Irv Smith, Jr, Erik McCoy, and Darnell Savage- not a fan.  It may not be my Packers specific big board (yet), but Ferrell, ISJ, McCoy and Savage check in at 18, 34, 98 and 145 for me.  That's not at all what you're looking for with the draft capital the Packers possess.

Dan Kadar - Mocking the Draft (SB Nation) - Burns, Dalton Risner, Jace Sternberger, and Renell Wren- this starts off so well.  Burns Risner and Sternberger are all top end guys at positions of need.  I think if it got to 44 and you saw Fant, ISJ and Hock all off the board you'd be a little disappointed.  Wren is the one that bugs me.  The Packers basically play two down defensive linemen and they already have a third round project for the backup 3 tech spot in Montravius Adams.  With Clark, Daniels and Lowry they have three bona fides and Tyler Lancaster is a low floor prospect that will work out at least as a fourth or fifth DL.  Is (maybe) upgrading the Montravious Adams spot really worth a third round pick?  Can't do it.  Amani Hooker, Chase Winovich and Jalen Jelks were still on the board.  

Mike Tanier - Bleacher Report - Burns and Noah Fant- I'm never gonna complain about the pass rush/Iowa TE combo from anyone.  Especially when it's one of the explosive rushers.  

Ryan Wilson - CBS Sports- Jachai Polite and Noah Fant- See above.

Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz - USA Today - Montez Sweat and TJ Hockenson- don't love Sweat, do love Hockenson.  I could pretty easily talk myself into all this.  

Packers Prospect Vid of the Week

-------------------

Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem 

NFL Categories: 
1 points

Comments (61)

Fan-Friendly This filter will hide comments which have ratio of 5 to 1 down-vote to up-vote.
Bearmeat's picture

February 25, 2019 at 03:09 pm

Good stuff.

PS: When I looked at the picture, at first I saw the guy from TCU wearing what I thought were the world's shortest gym-shorts. Like Uber-John Stockton style!
LOL!

+ REPLY
2 points
4
2
The TKstinator's picture

February 26, 2019 at 06:08 am

Looking at all of these mocks, one thing seems to be consistent: Barring any trades up or down, GB should be able to add 3 or 4 good prospects at a variety of positions. Can the draft fill all their holes? No.

Between new offensive system (MLF), FA (cap room) and the draft, GB should be poised to take a big step forward next year and beyond.
Hang on tight, this is going to be fun.

+ REPLY
6 points
6
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 05:21 pm

We could probably get 3 or 4 free agents for $30 million that would improve the team. And we could trade down a little and end up with 8 picks in the first 118, plus the 4 in rounds 5-7.

By comparison, Chicago has little money and ONE pick in that time frame. This is how you close the gap, right here.

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
The TKstinator's picture

February 26, 2019 at 08:53 pm

I like it.
Hot stove.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Lphill's picture

February 25, 2019 at 03:36 pm

I like the 2nd and 3 rd pick but at 12 I am not sure but I agree the Packers will go edge but who remains to be seen , if Hockson and Fant dazzle at the combine then I am ok taking one of them if available at 12.

+ REPLY
-1 points
1
2
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:32 am

In the last 10 years, Eric Ebron is the only TE to go that high. There have only been 7 TEs taken in the first round. It's almost a certainty that one, or both of these guys will still be available at #21.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
Hawg Hanner's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:04 pm

If Montgomery can take over for Jamal Williams that would be a real surprise. William can pass block and has some drive and he's pretty good. If Montgomery is the BPA I can buy that, but otherwise running back has to take a back seat to other needs

+ REPLY
11 points
12
1
sonomaca's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:07 pm

Many are claiming this is going to be a trade heavy draft. That gives the nimble GM’s an advantage. Last year, Gute was certainly on his game during round 1.

+ REPLY
9 points
9
0
Schonejl's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:10 pm

I used your board and got this draft:
12: R1P12 EDGE BRIAN BURNS FLORDIA STATE
30: R1P30 OT DALTON RISNER KANSAS STATE
44: R2P12 TE IRV SMITH JRALABAMA
75: R3P11 S AMANI HOOKER IOWA
114: R4P12 LB VOSEAN JOSEPH FLORIDA
118: R4P16 G CONNOR MCGOVERN PENN STATE
150: R5P12 DL DEMARCUS CHRISTMAS FLORIDA STATE

+ REPLY
4 points
7
3
jannes bjornson's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:24 pm

Polte over Burns. #30 too high for Risner. Dillard fits there.

+ REPLY
3 points
4
1
MikeS's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:16 pm

There is no way Burns is the pick at 12. He just isn't top 15 material. Too light. Polite at 12 and Hockinson at 30. I like Adderly at 44. and the best OL available at 75.

+ REPLY
4 points
6
2
CAG123's picture

February 25, 2019 at 06:01 pm

I mean Polite is like 6’2 240 and he definitely looks smaller than that when he gets swallowed up on run downs Burns is 6’5 235 and can always add more bulk. One guy can always get bigger the other can’t get taller.

+ REPLY
3 points
4
1
Hawg Hanner's picture

February 25, 2019 at 08:33 pm

6ft2 scares me as well. Its a defensive end at times or a blocker/tackler almost tiny in comparison to his attackers. Another version of unsersized. trade down!

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

February 26, 2019 at 08:55 am

Von Miller like guy as far as body type.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
KeepErMovin's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:03 am

Mack, Miller, and CM3 are all 6'2"-6'3".

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:34 am

On most plays, he's going up against a 6'5" tackle that outweighs him by 75 pounds.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
stockholder's picture

February 26, 2019 at 07:39 am

Sweat will be the better player out of the gate. Polite will struggle early going. Burns will be the better of the 3 when the careers are over.

+ REPLY
-1 points
0
1
KeepErMovin's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:04 am

Burns is reportedly around 245-250 for the combine. If he is still freaky athletic he will be ahead of Polite for me.

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
Thegreatreynoldo's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:13 am

I read ithe JSO article on players to watch at the combine. It didn't mention Burns, whose draft status might well hinge on his weight and of course times. It is almost like JSO didn't want to print another page up in the hard copy paper. If you follow the draft even a little, no need to read that article.

+ REPLY
-1 points
0
1
stockholder's picture

February 26, 2019 at 11:20 am

JSO is terrible in their assessments. Most stars have PR reps. The grease is donations. We all take advantage of tax right offs. And it's easy to make money when you have it. Most people don't realize how much Love these guys get. The desire is wanting things that can be a mistake. The packers are falling apart. Everything that has to do with the draft is about the future. So on that note: Hoekenson is the fan favorite now. Not Burns. If it's printed, its gospel. The Press is always Right. High character guys always go first in Green Bays.

+ REPLY
-1 points
1
2
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 05:24 pm

Actually, Bob McGinn of the JSO has received national recognition for the perspicacity of his Big Board. He's better than 90% at getting guys in the Top 100.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
jww061356's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:25 pm

I am slowly getting sold on Polite, but am starting to hear whispers about being tough to coach. I really want Hockenson, and Adderley @ 44 would be a dream scenario in IMO.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:30 am

I hate the idea of an edge rusher at #12. The most realistic expectation that we would have would be a guy that misses some games and averages about 4 or 5 sacks per season.

Of all the first round edge rushers taken out of the top 10 (11-32) Nick Perry has been one of the very best. He finishes 18th in sacks among all edge rushers including DEs and OLBs. That means if you take out some of the DEs, like JJ Watt, he's even higher.

Of that same group 23 of them have 20 career sacks. Only 9 reached 50 and a bunch of them were DEs, not edge rushers.

So....four year projected totals on any edge rusher we take at 12: 50 games out of 64, 20 sacks in 4 seasons.

I think we need bigger contributions from people we draft in the first round.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
GBPDAN1's picture

February 25, 2019 at 04:35 pm

Very excited to see how this offseason shakes out from a player acquisitions standpoint. Picking high in each round and 6 picks in the first 4 rounds. Plus a modest surplus of cap money and a GM that will use it in free agency. Should be filling some holes in this roster

+ REPLY
7 points
7
0
TheBigCheeze's picture

February 25, 2019 at 05:15 pm

Hock won't be available at #30......better take him earlier.

+ REPLY
1 points
4
3
Minniman's picture

February 25, 2019 at 05:33 pm

That really is one of the vexing questions of the draft isn't it.

He's clearly a talent, but only 5 teams have a bona fide need for a TE and it's not the highest priced position nor the most integral to a team (although teams certainly appreciate a good one).

..... Good TE's get banged up a lot too. It comes with the turf in putting your body on the line in the middle of the field to make plays.

Maybe the targeting, helmet-to-helmet and defenseless player rule changes might protect the seam players a bit more, but they really are cannon fodder.

+ REPLY
4 points
5
1
KeepErMovin's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:37 am

TE is not a premium position. Better to take an Edge rusher at 12 and see who is there at 30 or 44. TE is deep this year.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
lowcsp's picture

February 26, 2019 at 03:01 pm

Yeah it would be a real tough call to choose between hocherson and devin white at 12

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
stockholder's picture

February 25, 2019 at 05:30 pm

Draft boards keep changing. J Williams drops to 12, Like TT taking Bulaga. Gute fills a much needed OL [email protected] J. Williams OT. @30 Bush ILB, Sorry Bush over TE! @44 Simmons NT, Why? Next year Daniels leaves. Since we missed out on Sweat, @ #76, Anthony Nelson Edge, @115 Jace Sterberger TE @119 Max Scharping. @151 Andy Isabella Slot WR//KR @186 Marcus Blair S @196 Andrew Wingard S @228 Malik Gant S Marshall

+ REPLY
0 points
3
3
CheesyTex's picture

February 25, 2019 at 06:47 pm

Board will keep changing, esp. after FA, but right now your picks would go a long way to shoring up holes in the roster. Nice work.

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
Doug Niemczynski's picture

February 28, 2019 at 12:11 pm

I think if you want to Hall of Famer you better take hockenson if you want a guy just for a 3-4 years you can take White

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
ShooterMcGee's picture

February 25, 2019 at 06:31 pm

I like this draft but wonder if this is enough help on defense. Montgomery in the 3rd seems like great value but would prefer LB/edge help. Perhaps LB Hanks from New Mexico or Chase Winovich from Michigan. We can get RB depth such as Bryce Love in later rounds.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
jeremyjjbrown's picture

February 25, 2019 at 06:56 pm

That's a pretty darn nice draft. I would be happy with that group.

+ REPLY
4 points
4
0
stockholder's picture

February 26, 2019 at 07:30 am

OL- My feeling now is they will take J .Williams if he drops. He sets their board. You then don't take a IOL 2nd rd or 3rd. But much later. It also opens up trading. The biggest problem will be the DL next year if they do. But so many think the DL is the best in the league. It isn't.

+ REPLY
-2 points
0
2
albert999's picture

February 25, 2019 at 08:13 pm

THIS JUST IN
The #Packers are not expected to resign WR Randall Cobb. They will also let OLB Clay Matthews test the Free Agent market. (Michael Silver)
3:17 PM - Feb 25, 2019

+ REPLY
0 points
2
2
KeepErMovin's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:39 am

Also:
Water confirmed to be wet.

+ REPLY
2 points
2
0
Packer Dave's picture

February 25, 2019 at 08:16 pm

The more I think about this the more it's seems like picking Burns, Sweat or Polite at 12 is reaching for a need because our cupboard is empty. Now, I'm usually wrong, but a top OL would fit there too. Williams or Taylor would plug right in for a decade. Maybe a trade scenario gets us down from 30 to scoop up one of those edge guys if they slip a bit.

+ REPLY
5 points
5
0
Dzehren's picture

February 26, 2019 at 06:38 am

Agreed

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
fthisJack's picture

February 26, 2019 at 08:49 am

i agree....the 2 top edge guys are gone and someone will slip to the Packers at 12. be it White, Williams, Oliver. take the BPA at 12 and deal with edge rusher later. or trade down 5 to 7 spots and still maybe then get Hockenson or one of these edge rushers. i just think 12 is too high for any of the second tier edge rushers.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
jannes bjornson's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:02 am

Polite is pegged as a #10 to #13 guy. Sweat around there also. Burns has fans in the mid round and some have him at the end of the first due to his lean frame. Polite is fast with his hands and creates fumbles. Sweat is 6'-6" with 35.5" arms and can obstruct QBs vision and ward off OTs with his length. Polite or Sweat would be gravy @ #12.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Minniman's picture

February 26, 2019 at 03:16 pm

"Burns has fans in the mid round and some have him at the end of the first due to his lean frame."

I think that his draft stock is going to swing on the question of whether he can "muscle up" and still keep his agility.

As Kevin King has proven, if they are too thinly framed it can affect their durability at the NFL level

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 09:37 am

How big is our need, Dave? We have two starters. One, Nick Perry, has been one of the most successful edge rushers in the league but misses a fair amount of games. The other starter is coming off a 10 sack season. And we can resign Gilbert for near the vet minimum.

We carry 4 active guys on gameday.....we have room for one more.....but do we really have to jump on a guy in the first round?

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
PeteK's picture

February 26, 2019 at 03:08 pm

I would sign Matthews before I keep Perry. When he's not out he's playing hurt. I'd rather take my chances with a new young player than an over payed veteran.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Leatherhead's picture

February 26, 2019 at 05:18 pm

Perry is under contract, and Matthews is not. That means Perry counts against our cap. We could cut him, but the $3 million we'd save doesn't buy his replacement.

2019 will almost certainly be Perry's last year, unless he has a really, really good season.

Out or playing hurt, he's been one of the more productive edge rushers taken in the first round over the last decade or so. A cautionary tale for drafting an edge in the first round. Most of them aren't any better than Perry.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
dobber's picture

February 26, 2019 at 06:15 pm

Availability counts for a lot.

Even if the Packers keep Perry (and I suspect they will) they've got to find two edge players...Gilbert was less than replacement-level last year and Donnerson never found his way onto the field.

+ REPLY
-1 points
0
1
ShooterMcGee's picture

February 26, 2019 at 03:25 am

if DT Simmons slips to 30 he would be too good to pass up. He was a lock for the top 10 before his knee injury and he could replace Daniels next year.

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
stockholder's picture

February 26, 2019 at 07:35 am

I Put him back in my draft as a gamble. I don't like the year off. Didn't want to, but had too. Daniels will leave next year. The packers will need more of a pass rusher.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
BradHTX's picture

February 26, 2019 at 07:45 am

Considering how integral to MP’s pass rush the DL is, I’d have no problem with this at all — providing a S and OLB are acquired in FA (which I think is possible with the cap space, and hopefully likely).

Der Gutemeister has shown a willingness to play the long game, as well he should. If the first four rounds were something like...

1a. Top tier OT
1b. Simmons
2. Good Edge
3. Developmental TE
4a. Developmental S
4b. Slot WR

...I’d have absolutely no problem with it at all. In fact, it might be the ideal scenario, if you break the players into tiers, as all GMs do.

Let’s say Gute believes that all the Edge guys after Allen have holes that make them a reach at #12. If Polite/Burns/Sweat are Tier 2 after Allen, there probably isn’t that much of a separation between them and whoever is Tier 3. So, the best strategy for Round 1 may well be to nab a Tier 1 OT and a Tier 1 DL to marinate for a season and then replace Bulaga and Daniels next year. Then hope one of the Tier 2 Edge guys falls, and if not, take the best of the remaining good-but-not-great Tier 3 in Round 2.

At TE, as good as Hockenson/Fant might be, there are other positions that would have a much larger impact in the big picture, and some decent Tier 2 guys are likely to be available in Round 3. I really feel strongly that grabbing one at 30 is a luxury pick that is unnecessary.

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
fthisJack's picture

February 26, 2019 at 08:54 am

we'll have a better handle on the draft once the underwear olympics are over.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Doug Niemczynski's picture

February 26, 2019 at 10:31 am

We don't need to waste another pick on developmental TE

Either take Hockenson at #12 so we don't have to waste another 4th round TE developmental pick...

+ REPLY
0 points
1
1
BradHTX's picture

February 26, 2019 at 11:29 am

When I said "Developmental TE" in my comment above, understand I don't mean a UDFA Tonyan-type. I just mean a talented player who may be solid right away but not a star player. The tier below Hockenson/Fant/Smith, like Sternberger or Knox.

The fact is, while Hockenson may turn out to be Gronk 2.0, no one knows that for sure. And with the #12 pick, the highest we've had since 2009, I want to maximize the value of that pick. Who provides more value, a perennial Pro Bowl tight end, or a perennial Pro Bowl right tackle? I would be willing to wager it's the latter, and also that tackles have a lower bust rate (no evidence to back that up, just guessing).

We have a TE in Graham who may not be what he was in his prime, but we can't afford to cut him this year and he still performed decently despite McCarthy not knowing how to use him. On the other hand, we have a massive hole at RG, and an RT whose body is breaking down and will probably be gone next year. If we want Rodgers to play until 40, we need to keep him upright, and while it's not a sexy pick, a top tier OL is probably the smartest use of #12. Hockenson is a flashy pick, but a luxury I don't think we can afford right now. It would be putting an expensive aftermarket stereo in a car that needs a new transmission.

+ REPLY
2 points
3
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 26, 2019 at 01:51 pm

Brad,
Very well written and accurate IMO!

But damn selecting draft players is like dating. You look for all these sexy body parts that sometimes you miss the most important part. In terms of players are they football players and are they the best players available or simply players at need positions?

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
PeteK's picture

February 26, 2019 at 03:16 pm

Graham's dropped passes before his injury, lethargic routes, and dismal blocking were not McCarthy's fault.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Doug Niemczynski's picture

February 26, 2019 at 11:55 am

Pro Bowl TE

You got Bulaga

+ REPLY
1 points
2
1
dobber's picture

February 26, 2019 at 12:35 pm

Ugh...my brain...

+ REPLY
1 points
3
2
DD's picture

February 26, 2019 at 10:06 am

All these mock drafts! We need number one two edge beasts who can start. Number two, we dont need a rookie free safety who is learning on the job; veteran FA needed at safety! From there a tough, quick slot receiver!

+ REPLY
3 points
3
0
Handsback's picture

February 26, 2019 at 10:30 am

Look at pre-Combine mock drafts, post-Combine mocks and then look at the actual draft and see which one is more accurate. I did this a few years ago and the pre-Combine almost always was closer to the actual draft. The post-Combine will initially be very different and then slowly come back to where the players were mocked before the combine. Always some exceptions with the players, I remember Williams (DE from NC State) was mocked to Green Bay by everyone, but after the Combine he went first or second. I believe Green Bay got Hawk instead. So most coaches already know how much these guys weight, how fast and how strong and just need to verify it in the Combine. Where guys usually slip is in their personality test and medical issues.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
Doug Niemczynski's picture

February 26, 2019 at 10:34 am

Ok TE combine Saturday. .See hoe the HOCK does.

+ REPLY
1 points
1
0
dobber's picture

February 26, 2019 at 11:21 am

Aside from interviews, I think there's nothing "Hock" will do that will change his draft status. GMs are going to look at game film.

+ REPLY
-1 points
0
1
KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

February 26, 2019 at 01:43 pm

BradHTX and DD need to post more often. Well thought out and hit the nail on the head.

It is clear what the Packer needs are, however I truly want the Pack to draft the very best players available. If a position of need matches up 'close' to the best player available it should be a no brainer and go with the position of need.

I am afraid many posters are setting themselves up for disappointment. The odds of Hock are slim for several reasons. It is best to identify players you like but not to get attached because more often than not there will be dissapointment.

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0
Doug Niemczynski's picture

February 28, 2019 at 12:12 pm

LETS GO HIGH ON THE HOCK!!!

#12 PICK !!!!

+ REPLY
0 points
0
0

Log in to comment and more!

Not a member yet? Join free.

If you have already commented on Cheesehead TV in the past, we've created an account for you. Just verify your email, set a password and you're golden.