Packers Draft Special: Ten Commandments

Draft season has almost come to a close.  With the Easter celebration coming late this year, it falls on the final non-draft weekend of the year.  My years of following the draft, as a fan and now as an analyst have led me to identify some hard and fast rules, most of which preach patience.  It is hard to understand that we won't know the results of this extremely popular event for three, if not four seasons.  We live in a sports media culture that requires immediate results.  Every media outlet races to provide immediate draft grades. 

So on this Good Friday, with an admission that this will indeed come across as preachy, I now provide ten commandments on how to successfully follow and discuss the draft.  I promise it will bring you more enjoyment

1. Thou Shalt Not Give Up on a Prospect until Year Three (at the earliest) 

I just had this discussion last week with a commenter.  Just because there are rookies that make impacts, it doesn't mean that every rookie is what he's going to be during that first season.  Specifically slow developing positions include receiver, pass rusher, tight end and defensive back.  

Pro Football Focus' number 1 cornerback in 2019, Stephon Gilmore, was mostly terrible in 2012 and 2013, his rookie and sophomore seasons.  Kareem Jackson looked like a practice squad player in his first two seasons.  Davante Adams had a particularly brutal sophomore season.  Antonio Brown had 167 total receiving yards as a rookie.  These players take time to develop into what they're going to become as NFL players.  

Even players that appear to be good right away, like a David Bakhtiari can continue to develop.  It's tough to remember a time when DBak wasn't a super top-flight tackle, but in his first few seasons, he was not a plus run blocker.  That came after added functional strength in an NFL training program.  

That means it is unequivocally too early to give up on Josh Jones, Montravius Adams, Kevin King, Oren Burks, Josh Jackson and J'Mon Moore. It's also probably too early to declare Jaire Alexander a rousing success, as much as we may all want to.  

Remember how many seasons it took Kyler to become Sackrell.

2.  Thou Shalt Not Helmet Scout

Brian Burns is no less likely to become a star pass rusher becuase of the failure of Jamaal Reynolds, or any other Florida State pass rushers for that matter.  Florida State is now on it's second coaching staff following the Bobby Bowden era.  They've also gone through five defenisve coordinators since Mickey Andrews left after 26 seasons.  Who knows how many defensive line/defenisve ends coaches have come and gone in that time.  Position coaches in college football move around a lot.  These players aren't playing in the same scheme.  These players aren't getting the same coaching.  They're not playing in the same system and they're not learning from the same people.

It is such a departure from solid logic to simply believe that a player is less likely to succeed just because he wears the same helmet on his head.  

We have no idea.  None.  Whatsoever.  Please understand and find a way to believe that.  

Aaron Rodgers went 24th.  Tom Brady went 199th.  Derwin James, someone was never going to make it to the Packers pick, was not only available when the Packers picked last season at 14, he was available three picks later.   Josh Jackson, a player mocked in the first round in the final mock for Mel Kiper & Todd McShay, Matt Miller, Pro Football Focus, and Dan Kadar's final mock drafts, was available in the middle of the 2nd round of last year's draft.  So was Harold Landry.  Remember when sure-fire top 10 pick Courtney Upshaw was available for the Baltimore Ravens at 35th overall?  I sure do!  Alshon Jeffery fell in that same draft. He shouldn't have, but he did.  So did Eddie Lacy, Myles Jack, Laremy Tunsil, OJ Howard, Forrest Lamp and countless others because occaisonally two nose tackles go 12-13 like they did a season ago, or the Giants roll up and take Ereck Flowers in the top 10.

Are there reasons for a few of those? Sure. Jack's injury, Howard's position, Upshaw's testing, Jackson's long speed, but most of those are hindsight releated.  It's very easy to say of course this guy didn't go, he was medical red-flagged.  Of course that guy didn't go, there was a gas mask bong video.  But we didn't/don't know all those things while doing projectoins.  Saying "he won't be there", is not only often times wrong, it's completlely useless anaylsis/discussion.  It shows zero amount of football knowledge/isnight.  The ability to regurgitate the fact that a bunch of mocks you've read don't have that player available at that pick is not impressive.

4. Thou Shalt Not Tip Picks

This is more for the media than anybody else, and frankly the NFL has done a good job of getting this under control.  The NFL Draft is something that all of us take in together.  It's more fun when everyone receives and reacts to the same information, all at the same time.  Finding out or knowing 90 seconds before your buddy is not as cool as you think it is.

5. Thou Shalt Not Complain About Consensus, Followed By Making Fun of a Unique Opinion

As my friend . Justis Mosqueda has pointed out, the draft is four rounds long.  The likelihood of a fifth round pick or later making more of an impact on a team than an undrafted free agent isn't very high.  With that said, the Packers are actually pretty adept at finding quality players in the fifth stanza.  Since Ted Thompson took the reigns of the team in 2005, Green Bay has found Tony Moll, Breno Giacomini, Jamon Meredith, Marshall Newhouse, Micah Hyde, Corey Linsley, Aaron Jones and MVS in that round.  While you might scoff at those first four names, offensive linemen that play in 63, 94, 67, and 114 games respectively in this league are a tremendous value in round five.  

If sixth and seventh round picks hit, great.  If they don't, don't worry about it and definitely don't use it against GMs when evaluating thier performance.  Also by the time round five is over, you've spent a rather ridiculous amount of time staring at the TV.  Go spend time with your family.  They miss you.


7. Thou Shalt Not Follow the Herd

Speaking of group-think, that's a great point our founder Aaron Nagler makes above.  I promise the draft will be more fun if you do your own work.  Watch players.  There are entire cut-ups of players on YouTube that take six or seven minutes to get through.  In an hour you can have an eight game base on which to evaluate a player.  You become not only invested in what your team is doing, you become invested in being right.  In the success of athletes that you "find".

If you just take a look at the national guys' rankings and turn on the draft, you're going to have less fun.  If you're going to go around and ridicule the non-national guys becuase they don't agree with groupthink, and aren't follwing the herd, most of them are going to make sure you have a bad day.  

Come up with your own rankings, even if it's just to 32 or 50.  I promise you will have more fun.  


8.  Thou Shalt Purchase and Download the Cheesehead TV Draft Guide

I say this every single year, and this is no exception, no matter who you are, you need this draft guide.  Chances are if you've navigated the internet and found this wonderful piece on this fantastic website, you have the good fortune of being a fan of the 13x World Champion Green Bay Packers.  There isn't a more useful document put together by more talented people that specifically caters to you, the cheesehead than this draft guide.  Hours and hours and hours of film study, research and discussion go into these rankings, and the feature pieces are incredible.

Add into that the episode of Packer Transplants exclusively for Draft Guide owners and it's a slam dunk.   You need to have your Draft Guide on your computer, tablet or preferably large-screened smartphone by your side when the draft kicks off next Thursday.  

I'm going to make it easy for you: click this link right here.

9.  Thou Shalt not Compare Every Caucasian Wide Receiver to Jordy Nelson (if tall) or Wes Welker (if not tall)

Have a blast.  Watch with Friends!  Make or order awesome food, drink too much beer, go nuts.  This is the season of hope.  This is the one event that the NFL does that has subjective winners and losers.  You can talk yourself into the class, complain about the class, do whatever you want with the class.  

The Draft is about the future. For now, at least, it's pretty low stakes.  As much as we hang on every pick, we really aren't going to know whether this whole thing is going to work out until 2022.  I bet a lot of you don't even know what you'll be doing in 2022.  Next weekend though?  You better be having a fantastic time.

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Ross Uglem is a staff writer for Cheesehead TV. He can be found on Twitter @RossUglem 

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Comments (104)

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Cubbygold's picture

April 19, 2019 at 02:18 pm

#1 definitely needs a caveat or an edit. Maybe, don't give up on a guy if he's drafted in the first three/four rounds?

If each team refused to give up on every draft pick in the first three years you'd have 21+ guys eating up roster space, regardless of production. Look at 2017, you'd still have Biegel, yancey, amichia, mays and dupre that you'd be giving an additional year to develop. And you'd have 10 incoming rookies from this upcoming draft. That's a lot of prospects filling up valuable roles.

The other way to look at that would be, any GM who believes this would be inclined to trade up frequently to reduce the number of draft picks, because you just can't make room for that many young prospects on a roster.

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Turophile's picture

April 19, 2019 at 03:53 pm

Brin Brohm is one counter to that argument. With some guys you can see early on they just don't have it. I do agree that MOSTLY you give guys a chance and especially you don't call them failures after their rookie seasons.

I'd also add an extra stanza to this. Guys (especially on the first two days of the draft) are not drafted for their rookie impact, but their career. It's ok if they take time to improve.

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:28 pm

I had this argument when grading players here a month or so ago. Guys DO take time to develop. You EXPECT guys who are drafted later to take longer to develop. You are drafting them for their career, not their year one impact. Evaluate them that way.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:27 pm

Gute dumped Biegel after one season. I think there might be a story that hasn't been made public about him. Three seasons seems like a long time to me. At least in some cases, I am okay with dumping some players after just two full seasons, and even more quickly for players taken in the 5th through 7th round.

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fthisJack's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:47 pm

i thought that was strange also...but i have a feeling Gute was not on board with Beigel from the start. and then the injury and less than stellar play got him cut. i agreed with that.
glad they hung on to Adams who many were calling to cut when it was obvious the guy had talent and injury took away his sophomore season. and who knows what Spriggs will do this year. i was totally behind sticking with him. but if he doesn't show big improvement this year....show him the door.
OL sometimes take 3 or 4 years. Lang, Taylor, never set the world on fire until year 3 or 4. patience butterfly.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 20, 2019 at 07:41 am

Adams talent was cleary visible from day one. He just needed refinement.
Some of the people they hang with just doesn't make sense. If a guy cannot show improvement in base concepts during year two, I would not worry about moving him out year three.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:04 am

When we drafted M. Adams, I wrote that he had too much talent to pass up, but he's a headcase. Flashes talent and makes a great play at times, but at the end of the season, his production doesn't match his talent.

Adams is playing as advertised so far. Just 212 snaps last year, with 191 of them coming in the last 12 games. Looks to me like the Packers took a long look at Adams in the last game (Lancaster/Adams/F. Brown):

Week 1 -7: 21 snaps for Adams
Week 8: 8 to 5
Week 9: 20 to 13
Wk. 10: 14 to 12
Wk. 11: 11 to 23
Wk. 12: 22 to 19
Wk. 13: 35 to 15
Wk. 14: 22 to 12
Wk. 15: 51 to 16 to 12 for Fadol
Wk. 16: 47 to 25 to 11 for Fadol
Wk. 17: 38 to 51 to 15 for Fadol.

Adams, the former 5-star recruit, needs a wake-up call. His 20 tackles and 1.5 sacks in just 212 snaps extrapolate out nicely, while his 1 TFL and 2 QB hits are okay if less shiny. Certainly not a bad rotational DL at present. and probably in the intriguing area still.

Should the Packers draft Oliver and with Z. Smith playing inside on passing downs (especially if GB takes a Burns/Sweat/Allen type to free up Smith for interior duty even more), Adams could be looking at a numbers issue in September. Clark, Daniels, Lowry, and Oliver would be locks. Adams would be in competition for the 5th/6th spot with Looney, Brown, and Lancaster, plus any other DL GB acquires (Simmons would go on NFI/PUP). GB might figure 5 is enough defensive linemen.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:43 am

I read Gute wanted to sign Biegel to the PS but Vince had a snit after he was cut and said “no thanks, I am out of here! I will take my chances someplace else.”

He got a shot with the Saints, but didn’t do much there either.

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leche's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:51 pm

Hah, this is in response to me calling Oren Burks a bad football player (Which I'll admit is a hyperbolic statement). My argument hinges on we traded up to draft him in the 3rd round in part due to him having a really good RAS, yet he only managed to play 11.5% of defensive snaps last year (but almost 60% on ST)... The thought I am having is either we're going to ask A LOT out of him to go from 11.5% of snaps to being a starter... Or we're going to have to fill that starting role with a new guy (right now we don't have anyone else).

Ultimately it was just an example I was trying to use to question if we might be overvaluing RAS vs more general 'football skills' when evaluating drafting players

(All of this started with me questioning in Ross about RAS as he mentions it often as something the Packers have trended toward drafting players with high RAS)

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Jonathan Spader's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:38 pm

You might have thrown fuel onto the fire Leche but it's pretty conceited to consider yourself the entire fire. Ross has contributor feedback outside of CHTV comments. Twitter, other analysts, etc.

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albert999's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:46 am

Oren Burks will step up
Hide and watch

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NickPerry's picture

April 20, 2019 at 04:09 am

Now it's only 2:09 AM here in Los Angeles and it's entirely possible I'm not fully comprehending what exactly you mean, BUT I highly doubt Ross wrote this piece because of what you said about Burks.

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leche's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:41 am

Hah, also fair... I did respond to his post last week asking him about RAS and its significance and I used Burks as an example and he quickly called me out for judging him too early. It's probably not just me specifically but it hit home :)

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 02:39 pm

Actually, Ross, I think this was pretty good. I would include things like "Thou shalt not fall in love with any particular player".

The reality of the draft is that it's a crap shoot, and a lot of guys never become the player you hope they would, usually because of injury but sometimes for other reasons.

Almost always, after the first 10 or 12 guys, you can find a guy just as good 10 picks later. For example, this year, there'll be guys at #25 that are just as good as #15.

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blondy45's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:27 pm

"Thou shalt not panic" R-E-L-A-X! I enjoy Ross's well thought out article I find myself wanting a certain player or position at a certain spot in the draft. The odds of that actually happening are slim. In Gute we trust.

As a lifelong Packer's fan, I want to win big now. The odds of that happening are slim. Set our goal to be Super Bowl champs, yes. To attain that goal, we have to start to build our roster to be much better than it has been lately.

Gute has us on the right pathway. He identified declining players, even if they were popular fan favorites, and replaced them. He delivered a good 2018 draft with an extra #1 for this year. He gave us 4 huge FA signings already this year.

What grips me is that we as fans soon forget who we have on our roster already. A lot of these guys did not perform last year. The talent IS there. We have very good RB's, WR's and OFFENSIVE LINEMEN on our roster already. We even have a "decent" QB. At the premium picks, we need to focus on what we do not have on our roster. Later any position is "needed" if they are the BPA. Now is the time to not just add to our roster. It is draft 2019, time to start a new era of pride in Pack land. The Bears still SUCK!

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Turophile's picture

April 19, 2019 at 07:06 pm

Old School "Thou shalt not fall in love with any particular player".

GM's shouldn't. If they really like a player they move him up until he is level with other guys that he likes just as much. Fans get crushes on guys, GMs shouldn't.

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Handsback's picture

April 19, 2019 at 10:24 pm

Old School, yeah never fall in love with a draft prospect.
Guys/Ladies I want to take this opportunity to give thanks to all the people who put so much effort in the draft guide as well as all of the predraft write-ups. I don't care if I agree with them all the time or not. The effort is for us and they do one heck of a job!
In the land of the blind, the one eye guy is king!
Be the one eye guy!

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Tarynfor12's picture

April 19, 2019 at 02:44 pm

Thou Shall Not Draft by Best Player Available Only.

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fthisJack's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:52 pm

excuse me?

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Tarynfor12's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:02 pm

Excuse you for what...trying to be the arse you always try to be? But allow me ...lets also take for NEED especially since this team has much.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 11:30 pm

Taryn.....NEED is a poor evaluator of talent.

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leche's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:39 am

Yeah but there's a balance to it all... You can only play so many players at a certain position at a time. Overloading your talent all in one spot doesn't really make a good football team either.

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Since'61's picture

April 19, 2019 at 02:49 pm

I’m not a draftnik. Out of your 10 commandments I only follow one, #8.

I don’t watch the draft because that is a stupendous waste of valuable time compared with almost anything else I can think of.

I buy the CHTV draft guide and check in to see who the Packers selected at the end of each draft day. After that who cares. It only matters who the Packers selected not who they did not select.
Thanks, Since ‘61

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JerseyAl's picture

April 19, 2019 at 09:24 pm

well at least you get the draft guide!

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Since'61's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:37 am

Al- It's the least I can do to support yours and all of the staff's work in putting it together for us. It's excellent work. Thanks, Since '61

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NickPerry's picture

April 20, 2019 at 04:17 am

What an EXCELLENT way to look at the draft Since '61...

NOW, If I could just apply that to myself I'd probably be over drafting Nick Perry instead of Harrison Smith by now!!

LOL

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Since'61's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:14 pm

Nick - I've watched bits and pieces of the draft over the years. I've decided that I don't need to see Goodell for any reason. It's a yawning festival from a TV watching point of view. Maybe get an MC like Billy Crystal or Lewis Black or someone to inject some humor, at least in the first day. Besides except for the CHTV draft guide and what I read here I know next to nothing about the players. I haven't seen a college football game in over 30 years.

I follow the Packers by watching the games (live and on tape), engaging here at CHTV, going to Packers.com about once a month to read Cliff Christl articles on Packers history and any books which come out about the Packers and listening to Mike Francesca on WFAN NY. No ESPN or NFL Network, or pre/post games shows (they say nothing but overhype everything for ratings). The NFL in general gets less and less of my time.

As for the draft I'll check out who the Packers select and look forward to watching them play. Beyond that it's wait for TC to begin. Be well Nick. Thanks, Since '61

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stockholder's picture

April 19, 2019 at 03:02 pm

I only want Reggie White!

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sam1's picture

April 19, 2019 at 03:13 pm

I only want Reggie Favre!

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stockholder's picture

April 19, 2019 at 03:24 pm

Simmons is the next JJ Watt/ Reggie White!

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dobber's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:00 pm

How about: "thou shalt not pass judgement on a draft until seen in its entirety"?

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Bearmeat's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:12 pm

Thou shalt not slam an entire college by the actions of one professor or department?

The hell you say! ;)

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Ryan3468's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:04 pm

Can’t bail out a boat filled with holes and sinking. With personnel changes, and coaching changes, and the draft, hopefully this ship can be set a drift to an NFC North ripe for the picking of the Bears and Vikings. I’d mention the Lions, but they really haven’t had a decisive victory since the Christians. Here is to a bigger boat, and hopefully a team ready to bare it’s teeth. Share an identity, and let the talent rise up. Even the hunch back of Notre Dame is looking for a new home. Roll back that rock, resurrect, and enjoy world domination football. Patiently waiting Packers fans want Todd Rundgren played loudly, proudly, early, and often. I don’t want to work, I just want to bang on the drum all day.

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MarkinMadison's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:32 pm

"Can’t bail out a boat filled with holes and sinking."

Sounds like you've already given up.

"With personnel changes, and coaching changes, and the draft, hopefully this ship can be set a drift to an NFC North ripe for the picking of the Bears and Vikings."

Being set adrift is a BAD thing.

Are you a Vikings fan?

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BradHTX's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:18 pm

Hey Ross — thanks for all the amazing work you put in on your draft commentary. I really feel like you do a lot to make me a more educated fan, and I appreciate that. Your columns are always well thought out, and well written. Cheers!

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Lare's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:18 pm

Its been my experience that fans generally think in the moment and most GMS are thinking 1-3 years ahead. Many fans will be disappointed with some of the draft picks initially but see the sense of them a few years later. it doesn't pay to get too wrapped up in any one player because chances are he's going to another team.

it's all a crapshoot anyway, a good GM hopes to hit on about a third of his selections. You can measure the measurables but you never know what's in the heart of a player.

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Rory Connolly's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:39 pm

Ross is a homer. His takes are arrogant, like he thinks he is the next Mel Kiper.

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JimR_in_SoCal's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:20 pm

You mean sporting the bad hairdo?

Rory, there's difference between no bullshit and arrogance. Ross strikes me as no bullshit.

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NickPerry's picture

April 20, 2019 at 04:23 am

Okay McShay … Lets hear what YOU have to say then.

Personally I think he does a hell of a job, not just here but on Packerstalk.com too. I also don't sense any arrogance from Ross, not a bit.

A Homer? Well maybe a small tad BUT he IS writing for a Packers website you dumbass! Go read other fan websites and tell me you don't pick up on the homer part.

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IceBowl's picture

April 20, 2019 at 11:08 am

Rory Connolly,

Just what is the point of going after the author? Is there a point??

Authors do their job.

Looks like your take is arrogant.

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Swisch's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:40 pm

I'd like to see a rookie or two make a significant contribution right away, but I agree that many players need two or more years to be given a fair opportunity to develop.
I don't have a problem with educated guesses about which players will be gone by any given pick in the draft, but I agree that it's good to be humble in anticipation of surprises.
Enjoyable piece, Ross, in preparation for next weekend.
This may sound simple, but I hope the Packers are looking for guys who really like to play football.
I know pro football is a job with a lot of violence and a lot of pressure and a lot of study and a lot of discipline -- but all things being fairly equal, I'd go for the guys who still retain a good measure of the love of the game.
I'm hopeful that the Packers players will have more fun next year, as shown by more lively play, as shown by more victories, as shown by more enthusiastic fans.
I'm predicting playoffs next season.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:48 pm

How do you measure a player's love for the game?

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Swisch's picture

April 19, 2019 at 08:07 pm

Perhaps most of all, talk with his teammates in college, and his coaches.
Does he like to dive around and mix it up and get his uniform dirty? Does he like the camaraderie of the game?
I would think some of this would also be evident from the tape, and can be gleaned from a personal interview.
A guy doesn't have to hang around the practice facility day and night in order to show love for the game; actually, it seems better if he has at least some balance in his life.
Even we as fans can often tell if a guy is a gamer; if he's really into the game physically and mentally; if he'd be playing if it was the 1930s with leather helmets and low salaries; if he's not mainly about himself but is interacting with his teammates for a common goal of shared triumph.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 19, 2019 at 10:42 pm

Lacey...."in my off time my favorite thing to do is watch cartoons" or something like that.

Ummm....no!

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 20, 2019 at 07:52 am

If you draft guys coming out as juniors or RS sophs you will face a steeper learning curve. If they want to move the curve forward the draft should focus on more mature players and look for leaders(captains).

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4thand1's picture

April 19, 2019 at 04:47 pm

thou draft shall get here sooneth.

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JimR_in_SoCal's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:20 pm

Amen!

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Swisch's picture

April 19, 2019 at 08:10 pm

Yes, but we still need the number of days, hours, minutes... please.

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Jonathan Spader's picture

April 19, 2019 at 09:02 pm

5 Days 21 Hours 58 Minutes

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fthisJack's picture

April 19, 2019 at 05:01 pm

thou shalt not get your heart set on a guy like Derwin James and then have the GM trade down and ruin your day. stay loose ...you have no control over anything except what your next drink is going to be.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 05:06 pm

I didn't have a better spot to put this, but NFL Network is doing a piece on the Packers drafting a QB.

Daniel Jeremiah reports that the Packers have really been doing a lot of homework on the QBs. He himself has us taking Lock at #30. Adam Rank, of CBS, has us taking Jones at #30.

It looks right now like 4 QBs could go in the first round....Murray, Haskins, Lock, and Jones. QBs always rise as we get closer to the draft because you simply don't win in this league without one.

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Swisch's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:15 pm

I'd give the LaFleur-Rodgers relationship a year to develop into something good before drafting another quarterback.
I'd give Boyle and/or Kizer another year to develop before drafting another quarterback.
I'd stock up on offensive linemen and solidify the defense before drafting another quarterback.
I'd consider signing a veteran backup for this season instead of drafting another quarterback.
Oh, please Packers, wait at least until next year before drafting another quarterback.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 07:05 pm

I want to ask you a serious question, Swisch.

Rodgers took an injury in the opener last year, and it probably came closer to knocking him out for the season than we realized.

What if it happens again? Would you be fine with Kizer/Boyle ? Would you be OK just writing off another year and waiting for Rodgers to return next season and just assume he'd be as good as he was back in 2014?

Or would you rather watch a guy like Lock or Jones develop?

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Swisch's picture

April 19, 2019 at 08:28 pm

Old School, the ultimate answer to your question may be to look for a veteran backup at quarterback.
As for our current guys, Kizer is a recent first-rounder; Boyle is a recent late-rounder. Neither has really had the years or opportunities to prove or disqualify himself. Are the guys we would pick in the early or late rounds really all that much more promising than the guys we already have as backups?
Even Aaron Rodgers, as I remember it, was just okay (although promising) during his first full season, and that was after a few seasons as an apprentice on the sidelines.
I guess if the Packers think both Kizer and Boyle are truly busts, then draft a quarterback.
Otherwise, use our precious draft picks next week toward a good offensive line, and a good defense -- or it's going to be hard for any young quarterback to excel as a Packer.
It would even be tough on a guy who has been as great as Rodgers.

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blondy45's picture

April 19, 2019 at 09:09 pm

I saw the recent report on TV tonight about the 2011 QB draft which had these 4 QB's taken in round #!. The report supported the idea that NFL teams over value the QB position, drafting QB's too early when they are not that special.
1st. Cam Newton 8th. Jake Locker 10th. Blaine Gabbert 12th. C. Ponder.
The QB class of 2019 is similar IMO. Kyler Murray #1 pick, with the next 3 not really that great. Do you want to have a 2019 QB be a Locker, Gabbert, or Ponder to be our replacement for Rodgers in 3-4 years? Not me! This is not a good QB class. I know hindsight is 20-20.

If Rodgers gets hurt this year, NONE of these QB will step in and carry the Packers in the short term. Sure, by drafting & developing a QB this year in the mid to later rounds may be better than what we have now. We are at least 1-2 years away from drafting a legit replacement for Rodgers. No early round pick QB for me.

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NickPerry's picture

April 20, 2019 at 04:35 am

This IS a bad QB class... I don't think Murry is the next Brees or Wilson.. I think he'll be just ANOTHER bad pick from the Cardinals or perhaps the Raiders. The others after him? MEH...

It wouldn't surprise me if the Packers took one in the 4th round or later, not a bit. But I doubt Gute selects one sooner unless one of these guys the experts have pegged to the 1st round is there at 75.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 20, 2019 at 07:56 am

You can look at Stidhem or Grier in rd three or four to get some competion for Kizer.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 20, 2019 at 09:00 am

blondy….if we were looking for a veteran backup, why didn't we do that already?

IMO, the Packers aren't interested in a vet backup. They're looking at a guy in the draft.

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albert999's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:50 am

get off the kool aid

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JimR_in_SoCal's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:25 pm

I'd be really surprised if the Packers pick a QB in this draft, unless it's a developmental QB in one of the later rounds. I'm expecting the Packers draft their future starting QB in either 2020 or 2021. We'll see next week. Go Pack Go!

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IceBowl's picture

April 19, 2019 at 08:38 pm

Old School,

Not arguing with you specifically, but your topic in general. Every team is doing their homework on all potential picks. I don't care what network, what reporter, what fake news you want to cite, all teams are all doing the same homework.

I would be disappointed if the Pack didn't have a dossier on all players - college, free agents and veterans. Just stupid nonsense if they don't. The Pack, like all teams, get ALL their questions answered from all prospects before offers are made.

So please stop with the drama. The Pack is just doing business as usual.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:18 am

I would rather not watch Lock or Jones stink up the joint. After assuming arguendo that AR misses time in 2019, the next assumption is that Lock or Jones can play in the NFL and that these two possibilities mean that GB should use #12 or #30 on one of these two marginal talents.

Don't go grossly over-drafting QBs unless you need one.

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jeremyjjbrown's picture

April 19, 2019 at 05:30 pm

Hehe, that was fun.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 05:39 pm

Well, they mentioned some QBs after round one, like Finley and Grier. And they mentioned Lock.

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blondy45's picture

April 20, 2019 at 07:24 am

Brett Rypien in the 6th for me.

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Samson's picture

April 19, 2019 at 05:49 pm

"1. Thou Shalt Not Give Up on a Prospect until Year Three (at the earliest)."

Don't really agree with this. -- Maybe from a fan perspective but NFL coaches have far more experience & expertise than most fans. --- Plus, they see these 'underperforming players' everyday in practice. --- Fans don't.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 07:02 pm

You are correct that NFL coaches have far more experience and expertise.

Every single player taken in the first three rounds of the 2016 draft is still in the league after 3 years with one exception....Max Tuerk, who was waived by San Diego after testing positive for performance enhancing substances.

Of the players taken in the 4th and 5th rounds, only 7 are no longer in the league. I didn't check why but I'd assume injuries were a factor in some cases.

So, of 175 draft picks, only 8 are no longer in the league. And why is that? It's because these experienced coaches with all their expertise KNOW that you don't give up on a player for at least 3 years.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 19, 2019 at 07:14 pm

They have the players to fill spots with inexpensive rookie deals. This is a business.

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albert999's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:53 am

Half the Patriots Latest Super Bowl team are 4th 5th 6th rounders

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 20, 2019 at 07:59 am

Usually veteran pick ups. They know the Pro Game. Belichick plays them to their strengths.

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Thegreatreynoldo's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:11 pm

I thought you exaggerated this point, Old School, but my research suggests not by enough to really matter. One minor point: original teams sometimes give up or move on by getting a late pick, but the player (particularly if drafted in the top 3 rounds but down to round 5) bounces around the NFL for three years. I didn't recognize the pattern (i.e., the drafting team giving up after year one or two) quickly enough to note it.

I've got about 25 players out of the top 175 who didn't last past year two with the drafting team, but most of them are on a PS in the third year, or even still on a futures deal for 2019. Not technically out of the NFL, but hanging on by the enamel on their teeth. Only a couple due to injuries, and another two due to a combination of drugs, off the field and poor play.

NO NEED TO READ UNLESS INTERESTED IN RESEARCH

Paxton Lynch was out of football in 2018. Seattle put him on a futures deal for the minimum salary allowed for 2019, but traded for Hundley. Coleman and Eli Apple got moved by their teams, Apple for a 4th rounder and a future 7th. Coleman was traded to Buffalo for a 7th but he failed to make the team (not a good sign!). He was on NE's PS squad, but was released and signed to NYG's PS, and then promoted. He is still in the NFL, technically anyway.

2nd Rd:
Kevin Dodd is out of football. Currently a FA.
Hackenberg played no snaps in 2017, bounced around btw. teams in preseason, didn't make a team in 2018 and played in the CFL.
TJ Green is out of football. Not injury related.
Roberto Aquayo is out of football.
Sua Cravens was traded for a 5th rounder. On IR.

3rd Round:
Carl Nassib: waived by CLE played okay for TB in 2018
Braxton Miller: waived, on PS in 2018, future deal for 2019.

4th Round:
Connor Cook: No snaps in 2017/18. On PS in 2018 and a futures deal for 2019. Still in the league, just barely.
Charles Tapper: Almost no stats, has injuries. Still on futures deal.
Joshua Perry: no stats, bounced around, retired in 2018.
Parker Ehinger: injured all 3 yrs. Still hanging on.
Ricardo Louis: injured, did nothing, injured, is on a 90 man roster.
Willie Beavers: Didn't make his team in his first year, PS, Waived, PS, Waived, PS. 5 teams, no injuries. On a 90 man roster.
Jerald Hawkins: IR, injuries, currently a UFA/out of football.
Cardale Jones: DNP, waived, PS, on a futures deal.
Deiondre Hall: still on a team. Traded for a 7th.
Evan Boehm: played, started, waived, PS, signed to 53. 11 G, 4 starts in 2018.
Antonio Morrison: traded for Pipkens. Waived, UFA.
Rashard Robinson: drugs, suspensions. UFA.

5th:
Zach Sanchez: didn't make team/PS. Promoted then IR. Waived next year. PS in 2017. AAF in 2018.
John Theus: 4 teams. All waived him. Retired
Paul Perkins: played, NFI, waived. No stats in 2018. UFA/out of NFL.
Jordan Payton: out of NFL since 2017.
KJ Dillon: IR rookie, PS in 2017, Waived. AAF in 2018.
Kevin Hogan: waived by drafting team. PS/Promoted for 2017. Traded for a swap of 6th rd picks. Waived. On a futures deal.
Spencer Drango: 2nd stringer who played in 2016/17. Waived, new team's PS and on a futures deal for 2019.
Antwione Williams: played a little as a rookie. Waived by drafting team after one yr., new team PS in 2017. Waived 2018. New team PS. Waived. Out of NFL until PS in Dec. On futures.
Trey Caldwell: last a year, 1 game. Waived, PS, waived out of NFL in 17.
Fahn Cooper: waived, unclaimed, PS by drafting team. Waived in 2017. Out of NFL since.'

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Johnblood27's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:12 pm

I mentioned brussels sprouts yesterday.

I did not have them at dinner.

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JimR_in_SoCal's picture

April 19, 2019 at 06:26 pm

Mmmmmm

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 07:01 pm

I mentioned beer, and I actually had one. Sometimes it works out that way.

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Ferrari Driver's picture

April 19, 2019 at 07:25 pm

Lots of Thou Shall Nots; what I hope the Packers DO is their homework and try to land game changers with at least the two first round picks and pick solid prospects with the others.

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IceBowl's picture

April 19, 2019 at 08:26 pm

Uglam,

There are only 2 draft commandments.

1. Believe in and stay true to your draft board.

2. Keep your real draft board the most secret "board/document" in the football universe.

And be darn glad you do not have proceed like Gruden and the Oaklad Raiders. WOW!!!!

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zeke's picture

April 20, 2019 at 03:14 am

"Raiders send scouts home, unsure who to trust."

What does that even mean? The scouts knew they were going to be replaced and Gruden thought they were torpedoing the draft board? "Yeah, coach. Alex Ingold is our consensus number one. Sounds weird, we know, but the tape doesn't lie."

Good thing Gruden only has nine years left on his contract.

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IceBowl's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:54 am

Yes, so strange. A different approach? No trust in scouts? He does have Mike Mayok as an experienced talent evaluater.

They must really trust each other. And their board.

I imagine we will find out about this eventually.

Personally, I'm glad the Pack has their scout's voices at the ready in their draft room.

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Rossonero's picture

April 19, 2019 at 09:01 pm

Well done Ross. I'll admit I fell prey to the "Jamal Reynolds syndrome" or whatever you wanna call it. If Brian Burns is the pick then so be it.

While it may take 3 years for some prospects to produce, can we really wait around another 3 years? Rodgers isn't getting any younger. At the very least, we need a repeat of what Ted did 10 years ago: get 2 impact players who took a big jump in year 2 -- clay Matthews and BJ Raji. 2 years is easier to stomach than 3.

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Bure9620's picture

April 19, 2019 at 09:25 pm

Not sure I like QB in the first unless Gute is just simply convinced one of these guys is a future HOF. The model right now is get a good young QB that is not being paid QB money and use the rest of the Cap to spend around him on weapons and defense. Rams are doing this, the Bears, Seattle was when Wilson was on his rookie deal. Mahomes in KC, but KC hasn't built a defense. The advantage of a young QB is production for cheap. Why draft a 1st round guy to sit behind Rodgers as we will just be paying massive money to Rodgers and never use the young QBs rookie deal to our advantage?

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Leatherhead's picture

April 19, 2019 at 09:55 pm

The Daily Caller reports the Packers are looking at a first round QB. Numerous sources now. A lot of smoke for no fire.

Of course, it could all just be a smokescreen. You can't believe anything at this time of year.

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sonomaca's picture

April 19, 2019 at 10:18 pm

Jalen Ramsey and Jags squabbling, again. Jalen in GB?

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Bure9620's picture

April 20, 2019 at 02:32 am

They could be trying scare a team behind them whom wants a QB, so one will sell the farm for the Packers to move down.

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TheKanataThrilla's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:38 am

That is what I am thinking the plan is. A diversion tactic to try and do a move down to accumulate players in the 2nd and 3rd round where a lot of the value players are to fill some holes and add depth.

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stockholder's picture

April 19, 2019 at 11:16 pm

I remember the Washington Redskins. Theisman, Williams ,Rypkin. You don't need To draft a Qb to sit. You need him to win. I would draft Lock. Before any other offensive player. The reward can be the HOF. The reward is winning if your starter goes down. The reward is he can bring other HOF players to Green Bay. It keeps the future bright. The only thing about sitting Lock behind Rodgers is wasting his time. He is immature. The issue in most rebuilds is defense. And the defense lacks all-pros. We need that first. Lock is a Luxury that could hurt the team. It would upset Rodgers. Bring into question his contract extension. Question the moves already made. Passing on the best defensive Line player for any waiting game is a mistake. The defense has holes. It would lose the needed pieces to it's future. The cap problems will hit the DL next year. Either the packers want to win in the trench. Or gamble with Time.

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blondy45's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:04 am

Totally agree Stockholder, except that Lock is commonly viewed as the 4th "best" QB this year. No value or HOF potential IMO. How can Lock bring HOF players to Green Bay, especially holding a clip board for 3-4 years???
On a different note, Happy Easter weekend to all. Gary

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stockholder's picture

April 20, 2019 at 12:19 am

He's #3. Makes the out throw. Hardest thrower in the draft. Most believe his accuracy is connected to the Feet. He did set a lot of records for not being accurate per questions. He won't bring Anyone to GB unless he shows that HOF ability. 3-4 years when everyone is saying Rodgers is no longer the best in the league. And his past shows injury now. The Raiders had Daryl Lamonico then Stabler. The packers followed the 49 ers mode for QB. Montana left and Look who was behind him. Bono and Young. Any offensive player the packers take will be 2-3 years.

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jannes bjornson's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:08 am

I would not draft any of the first rd guys until the second. Lock has the best body of work but needs refinement with his footwork. His arm is real. Denver has shown the most interest.

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TheKanataThrilla's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:42 am

I'd rather see what we can trade for Rosen if the Cards draft Murray than draft Lock.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 20, 2019 at 09:03 am

You are assuming Rodgers isn't going to miss much time for the next three years. That's 48 games. Me? I'd be stunned if Rodgers didn't miss some significant time during that period.

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KnockTheSnotOutOfYou's picture

April 19, 2019 at 10:53 pm

Draft can't come soon enough!

Regardless whom the Packers select most all of us will grumble but then will put our player preferences aside and will embrace these new Packer players and hope Gute knew what he was doing. Most of us will embrace these players and hope these were the right choices after all. I know I always do!

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Bure9620's picture

April 20, 2019 at 02:43 am

With Lock available at 30

Round 1 Pick 12: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington St. (A)
Round 1 Pick 30: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri (B+)
Round 2 Pick 12: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, FS, Florida (A)
Round 3 Pick 11: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M (A)
Round 4 Pick 12: Andy Isabella, WR, Massachusetts (A+)
Round 4 Pick 16: Anthony Nelson, DE, Iowa (A+)
Round 5 Pick 19 (TENN): Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington (A+)
Round 5 Pick 23 (HOU): Tommy Sweeney, TE, Boston College (A)
Round 6 Pick 21: John Cominsky, DE, University of Charleston (A+)
Round 7 Pick 12: Jazz Ferguson, WR, Northwestern State (A+)

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stockholder's picture

April 20, 2019 at 07:02 am

Using Ross' #2 Big Board. I came away with this: @12 Hockenson TE #6 @30 Risner T #17 @44 Winovich LB #19 @75 Andy Isbella Slot WR, #40 @115 Blake Cashman ILB #52 @119 Conner McGovern OG,#75 @151 Max Crosby Edge #94 @186 Drew Tranquill ILB #110 @196 Bruce Anderson RB #114 @228 Mine vs. Ross: Being I prefer defense: Wilkins, Simmons, Risner T, Scharping OT, C. McGovern OG, CashMan ILB, Ty Johnson RB, Tracy PK, Drew Tranquill ILB, Smith WR Yours: I would take Hock over a OT. Fant will be the better pro. Lock won't go to 30. Consideration @12 is No Smoke. I still believe Simmons will end up a Packer if he makes it to #30.

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sonomaca's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:31 am

I seriously doubt the Pack will pick at #12 and #30. There’s going to be lots of movement in this draft. That favors the smarter GM’s, the chess players.

Gute will likely be on the move. Going to be very entertaining.

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Leatherhead's picture

April 20, 2019 at 09:05 am

I agree. Based on last year, Gutekunst is willing to move around to get the guys he wants. I'd be kind of surprised if we picked at #12 and #30.

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Bure9620's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:37 am

Fant will be better pro but I put significantly higher value on Tackle than TE. When Bulaga gets hurt this year, we need a capable tackle in place and for the future.

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stockholder's picture

April 20, 2019 at 11:04 am

He's a RT. He should have been replaced by Spriggs. I would take the game changer first. Not 1 OT is a shoe in.

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sonomaca's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:34 am

I think the Pack should be on the lookout for trade opportunities: Rosen and Ramsey are the two of greatest interest, but there may be others.

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sonomaca's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:40 am

Would I trade #12 for Ramsey (if he agreed to extension)? Yes! He’s 24 years old. He makes Pack a legit contender. Still have full complement of picks.

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sonomaca's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:40 am

Would I trade #12 for Ramsey (if he agreed to extension)? Yes! He’s 24 years old. He makes Pack a legit contender. Still have full complement of picks.

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sonomaca's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:46 am

Landon Collins seems to think that Ramsey could be in the move. They have #15. We have #12. Ramsey to Pack would allow Pettine to move everyone to proper positions, ie the Joshes. Can still draft a safety, ILB and defensive lineman.

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sonomaca's picture

April 20, 2019 at 08:53 am

Would I trade # 30 for Rosen? Yes! Get something for Kizer (a 4th?). Let Rosen observe Rodgers for a couple years, then sign him to long-term deal when Rodgers is done.

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PatrickGB's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:53 am

Amen, I say again, Amen.

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LambeauPlain's picture

April 20, 2019 at 10:55 am

Thanks for the Draft Guide!

I saw a draft scenario that made sense to me and might fit Gutey’s strategy.

What if at #12 he has 3-4 BAP at key positions remaining on his board? He could could trade down 3-4 spots and pick up another 2nd rounder and still get his high rated prospect.

Then he could trade both second rounders to get back into the first round at around #19-#21.

Having 3 first rounders at #15, #20 and #30 would get him probable starting talent...all on 5 year contracts.

I also hope Gutey makes it a standard practice to draft an O lineman every year on days one or two. Every year.

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