WHEN THE VIKINGS HAVE THE BALL

Historically speaking, the Vikings have had success running the ball on the Packers

Dalvin Cook is a two-way threat that has given the Green Bay defense fits and Alexander Mattison is very good complementary runner. The Vikings will certainly look to pound the ball, but the Packers have the best front 7 they've had in a long time. The additions of Jarran Reed and Quay Walker should allow them to neutralize the run.

Vikings center Garrett Bradbury has a notoriously difficult time with big power rushers in the trenches. Kenny Clark should have a field day in the middle and Reed should keep double teams off of him. We may also see more TJ Slaton as the Packers try to use their size advantage to hold blockers so De'Vondre Campbell and Walker can make plays against the run. Their speed should be critical in heading off Vikings runs before they get too far.

With or without a successful run game, the Vikings will look to pass.

New head coach Kevin O'Connell makes his debut today after serving as the Rams offensive coordinator. Unlike the last Vikings coach, he knows how passing attacks are supposed to work and he has some talented players to run it with.

If Kirk Cousins is ever going to hit the next level, new coach Kevin O'Connell will be the person to get him there. Just look at what he did with Matt Stafford last year.

The Vikings have a similar level of wide receiver talent as the Rams, too.

Justin Jefferson is already establishing himself as an upper echelon receiver and, even if Adam Thielen is slowing down in his old age, is part of one of the better receiving duos in the league. Throw in KJ Obsorn and newly-acquired under-achieving wildcard Jalen Reagor, and they have easily the best receiving corps in the division. The Packers secondary, who have not really played together, could struggle going up against a new offensive system with no game film.

The Packers have an all-star secondary, but the new Vikings offense qualifies as an unfamiliar opponent.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

The Packers re-shuffled offensive line (featuring two All Pro caliber starters fresh off ACL rehab and listed as questionable for the game), hasn't taken so much as a preseason snap together. They could make or break this game.

If they can't hold the point against Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith (who sounds out for blood on social media), things could go south in a hurry.

After Davante Adams and MVS left in free agency, Aaron Rodgers has few familiar targets left. Watkins, Watson, and Doubs are some talented additions, but Rodgers has never taken so much as a preseason snap with either of them. With Allen Lazard doubtful, I would expect the quarterback to look for Randall Cobb and Robert Tonyan when things break down (which is almost guaranteed to happen at times in Week 1 with an unfamiliar line).

Tonyan could be especially valuable in the red zone, given how much Rodgers used to look to Adams. Aaron Jones will also probably see a fair number of dump-offs to slow the pass rush and take advantage of his passing skills.

Sammy Watkins could be a wild card if the positive comments out of training camp are true. He may get injured a lot, but he's healthy for Sunday and that bodes well for the Packers on fast turf.

Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith are past their primes, for sure, but they're still savvy vets. The Packers can use quick passes to let their receivers beat these old-timers with athleticism. 

OTHER NOTES

• The Packers Keisean Nixon and Rudy Ford are supposed to be big boosts to a special teams unit making it's debut under Rich Bisaccia - it's "show me" time 
• Jalen Raegor was a bust as a wide receiver, but he could tilt this game as a returner
• Kevin O'Connell had to scheme for the Packers twice in the 2021 calendar year as the Ram offensive coordinator - he understands their defense
• No NFL stadium kills more birds than the Vikings US Bank monstrosity
   

FINAL THOUGHTS

The first week of the NFL has become increasingly random. No one plays in the preseason, so September games are a crapshoot.

The Packers will have no offensive line cohesion, regardless of who plays. Their passing offense is full of unfamiliar players and features a quarterback who thrives on familiarity. And the special teams unit, despite heavy investment in the offseason, was a small dumpster fire in preseason (granted that's still an upgrade from last season).

Add in a new Vikings coach with a point to prove, a jilted ex-teammate who wants to rub it in, and the fact that the Vikings are playing in their Super Bowl this week, and things look iffy.

I have no doubt that a healthy Packers team will prove far better by the end of the year, but the early going could be rough as the team finds itself.

Packers 17, Vikings 20