The last time these teams met, injuries where the big story. Patrick Mahomes was out and Matt Moore had a solid, efficient game filling in. The Packers were missing Davant Adams, but Aaron Jones stepped up with a career game, catching 7 balls for 159 yards and two touchdowns in addition to rushing for 67 yards with over 5 yards per carry. The Packers won on the road 24-31.

The Packers are on the road again, but this time they're the team missing their superstar quarterback. They're also missing their superstar left tackle, and their superstar edge rusher, and their superstar cornerback, and... you know the story.

If the Packers are going to get to 8-1, they're going to have to overcome a ton of injuries.

Injuries made the Packers big underdogs this week, but the Chiefs have muddled their way to 4-4 by underestimating lesser opponents and almost lost to a pathetic Giants squad last week.

Maybe they'll underestimate the Packers - a team that has thrived on overcoming injuries all year - and drop another home game this afternoon.

WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL

Patrick Mahomes may be the most talented quarterback in the league today. However, he's struggling through his worst season as a pro.

After getting mauled in the Super Bowl and running for his life the entire game, Mahomes has looked jumpy in the pocket this season. He looks rushed and uncomfortable, even when he isn't under pressure and it's affecting his footwork, which seems to have regressed. This has led to a lot of bad throws and interceptions.

He's now thrown 10 interceptions in the last 7 games. This comes after he threw 11 interceptions in the last two seasons combined. Part of this is random luck. In the past, for whatever reason, Mahomes benefited from a ton of dropped interceptions earlier in his career. This year, defenders are hanging on to them.

As a team, the Chiefs have turned the ball over 12 times in their last 4 games (for comparison, the Packers have turned it over only 3 times during their 7 game win streak). If the Packers can get some turnovers, it could swing this game the same way it did last week when they took the ball away 3 times.

Tyreek Hill is the Chiefs primary weapon. His 4.29 speed, as incredible as it is, is actually slower than Eric Stokes's 4.24 speed. Game speed is different than track speed, but this may be one of the fastest matchups in the history of the NFL and I expect it to be a deciding factor today. Stokes has been able to stick with pretty much everyone he's matched up against, though he occasionally has a rookie moment like last week when he appeared to think the play was over and gave up a deep pass. I'd expect Mahomes to target the rookie and force the ball to Hill, but with his propensity for picks this year, it might work out well for Green Bay.

The Packers will also have to contend with Mecole Hardman, the undersized receiver with 4.33 speed. With Jaire Alexander out, he could give the Packers trouble. Rasul Douglas doesn't have the kind of speed to run with him. If Kevin King plays, his size might help contain Hardman, but his lower speed and lack of agility would make it hard for him to stay with the shifty receiver. Chandon Sullivan could also draw the assignment, but he's been inconsistent on the year and also lacks Hardman's top-end speed. Chiefs tight End Travis Kelce is a reigning All Pro who is having a fantastic season and will present matchup challenges.

Kansas City has a lot of aerial weapons, but teams have been slowing them down in part with deep safety alignments to limit big plays. With Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage, the Packers have the ability to run some flexible hybrid zone concepts and keep the Chiefs inconsistent passing game under control.

The Chiefs run game hasn't been stellar, either. Darrell Williams became the lead back after Clyde Edwards-Helaire was placed on IR, but he's averaging less than 3.4 yards per carry in his 3 starts.

If the Packers can shut down the Chiefs running game with a standard front, they can let their fast backfield sit back and wait for Mahomes to try to force throws, which will hopefully lead to interceptions.

WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL

If the Packers are going to win this game, they need to run the ball.

Jordan Love is gonna have to make some plays, too, but their offense needs to run the ball and control the clock, just like they did last week.

At Arizona, the Packers ran the ball for over 150 yards and dominated time of possession with their ground game. The Packers only had to throw for 184 yards in that game. It's a recipe for success and it could work again this week. Jordan Love, for as inexperienced as he is, knows the system and Matt LaFleur knows how to get the most out of a quarterback.

The nice thing is that the Chiefs defense has been largely terrible all year. Outside decent showing against the Giants and Washington (who have pretty terrible offenses, themselves), the Chiefs defense has been worse than -15 in Expected Points each week (for comparison, the Packers defense has never been that low except for the Saints game).

Chris Jones, a run-stuffing dynamo on the defensive line, has been playing through torn ligaments in his wrist and has not been the same player he was.

A weak linebacker corps should get a boost from the return of Anthony Hitchens, who missed the last two games with a triceps injury. While that may give them a boost, it won't suddenly transform them to a good defense.

Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon can have a field day against this squad. Last week against the Cardinals, they both ran with power and piled up yards after contact. While this was expected from AJ Dillon, Aaron Jones ran with a force and physical determination that we haven't seen out of him before.

This is exactly what they need against Kansas City.

Two weeks ago, Tennessee ran the ball 35 times against the Chiefs and won time of possession by 13 minutes en route to a 27-3 win.

I don't expect the Packers to find that result, but a heavy ground game can keep them in this game.

OTHER NOTES

Chiefs fans know this is Jordan Love's first career start and I expect them to be as loud as ever. Love may burn through his timeouts quicker than Rodgers. 

The Packers switched long snappers this week, replacing Hunter Bradley with Steve Wirtel from the practice squad. Bradley had some shaky snaps this year, so it should be interesting to see if Wirtel brings a little more stability.

The Chiefs made a deal to get pass rusher Melvin Ingram just ahead of the trade deadline. Ingram is a 3-time Pro Bowler, but has been dealing with injuries and reduced effectiveness the last two seasons. He's currently battling a groin injury, but could see some snaps in 3rd down packages if he's active. 

FINAL THOUGHTS

The Chiefs are an odd case study this year. They have a ton of talent, but haven't gelled as a unit and seem to be suffering a Super Bowl hangover following their embarrassing blowout last year.

They've lost to good teams (Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans) and looked mediocre beating bad teams (Giants, Washington, Eagles), making them tough to figure out. Given the state of the AFC and their overall talent, though, they are still contenders. After eking out a last-minute win to get to .500 last week, they may be building some momentum.  

This game reminds me a lot of the 2010 Patriots matchup where an injury-ravaged Packers team went on the road against a title contender with Aaron Rodgers's backup, played hard, and just missed out on pulling the upset.

The Packers lost, but they showed everyone (including themselves) that they could win a title, even if they were missing players due to injury.

I think the Packers are going to play hard and I think Matt LaFleur is going to unleash a masterclass in game-planning, but in the end, I think they come up just a little short. 

Packers 27, Chiefs 31