Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 1768 - Packers' Run Defense Still a Cause for Concern

In 2022, the Packers boasted one of the league's worst run defenses and did very little to improve in the offseason. Now, the run defense could once again hamstring a young and talented Packers roster. I discuss why, today.

In 2022, the Packers boasted one of the league's worst run defenses and did very little to improve in the offseason. Now, the run defense could once again hamstring a young and talented Packers roster. I discuss why, today.
 
 

 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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Comments (8)

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Leatherhead's picture

May 29, 2023 at 10:22 am

Andy, respectfully, I don't think you get it. The decision has obviously been made that the average passing attempt gains more yards than the average rushing attempt, and that passes are more likely to end up in the endzone than runs, and they're more likely to be a "chunk" play.

So, starting from that point, the only rational course of action is to encourage teams to run. If Kirk Cousins throws a pass against us, it gains on average 7.0 yards. If he throws it to Jefferson, it's an average of over 9 yards/attempt. If it's completed, like about 70% of his throws are, it's 14 yards on the average.

But if he hands it off to Dalvin Cook, that's less than 5.0 yards on average. So if you just stuff the run, stuff the run, stuff the run, the Vikings are going to throw more. The Packers don't want teams to throw more.

The Packers would rather have the Vikings try to grind it down the field, and take our chances on stopping them on third down, or them stopping themselves with a penalty, turnover, missed assignment, incomplete pass, etc. They'd much rather see Cook with 25 carries for 150 yards....that's 6 yards a crack,......than see Jefferson with 14 targets and 10 receptions for 150 yards.

That's why our run numbers are bad. Conversely, our passing numbers are pretty good, because teams don't throw 40 times a game against us, we have some good cover guys, and we get good pressure. That's why we get so many interceptions despite not getting thrown on very much.

This isn't a case of "bad run defense". It's a calculated defensive design that held 16 of 17 opponents under 28 last year, and a majority of opponents to 23 or less.

I get why people want to see us just stuff the run. I really do. But I think this is a smarter way to keep the score low and keep us in the game, instead of inviting a shootout, which we rarely win. Under LaFleur, we've lost most games where the opponent goes over 30. (1-10 since 2019). But until this past season, we were 34-2 when we held teams to 24 or less. This past season, we were 7-4 in games where we held our opponent to 24 or less.

To recap: Help defend against the pass by encouraging the opponent to run. The goal is to keep points down, and you score more points, more quickly, passing, than you do running.

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greengold's picture

May 29, 2023 at 11:06 am

Whoosh.

Time clock keeps spinning with run heavy attack, which also wears out opposing D Front 7s.

Running more forces opposing defenses to play honest.

Throwing more can increase the odds of opposing Ds pinning their ears back in heavy pass rush, exposing your own QB to more adverse situations and possible injury.

Pass heavy attacks take away your own play action passing game. Kiss that goodbye.

Balanced attacks are what this Packers O needs.

The last thing our Packers D needs is Dalvin Cook running for 150 on us, allowing their O to control the clock and dictate the pace of a game, keeping the Packers O stuck on the sidelines.

Conversely, our DL ranked last in the NFL in run stop. Now we have added 9 or more defenders equally adept v. pass or run.

Can’t wait to see all of it come together for GB in 2023.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 29, 2023 at 12:16 pm

The top 4 scoring teams last year: KC, Eagles, Cowboys and Bills. All playoff teams, including the two Super Bowl teams.

The top 4 rushing teams last year: Bears, Ravens, Falcons, Giants.
The top 4 passing teams last year: Chiefs, Bucs, Chargers, Dolphins. All playoff teams.

It's apparent to me that the best offenses do the majority of their damage through the air.

""The last thing our Packers D needs is Dalvin Cook running for 150 on us, allowing their O to control the clock and dictate the pace of a game, keeping the Packers O stuck on the sidelines. """

IMO, it's better for Cook to get 150 than Jefferson. We'll have to disagree on that. It's not make it take it, it's alternating possessions. What you do with the ball is more important that how much time it takes. The Packers were average-ish in the % of drives that scored points (38.2%). About 3 out of every 8 drives, an average of 10 drives per game. And the average drive against us is 2.07 points. That's not only better than anybody else in our division, it's only .06 worse than KC.

The Eagles got 363 against us, but the other teams were all under 180. We were 3-3 in games where opponents rushed for 150-180. We had 4 games where teams rushed for 104-126 yards, and we lost all those. We had 5 games where we held teams to 102 or less, and went 4 -1. I'm not seeing a correlation.

It is the offense that needs to be more productive this year, and I think it will be. Defensively, we'd still rather have teams run against us than pass against us, so I guess everybody can have another season of complaining that we don't stuff the run.

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greengold's picture

May 29, 2023 at 06:32 pm

All I want is a more balanced attack. I want to see LaFleur test driving this Ferrari of an offense, getting the players comfortable & confident in all their roles as the establish themselves.

From there? Light it up. Run clock smartly.

We were at our best under Mike Holmgren, when he got up on teams Q1-2/3, then poured a heavy run assault with Dorsey Levens, Edgar Bennet & William Henderson to close games out.

We have a ton of offensive players and plays to get in our wheelhouse. We’ll be lighting it up plenty. How many explosive play targets do the Packers have? They might want to learn how to downshift, run some clock, give their D a blow. Just like they are going to learn how to score quickly.

I think they will become adept at explosive plays for big gains & scores. I want this Packers team to bury another team via either run or pass.

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Tundraboy's picture

May 29, 2023 at 11:01 pm

"We were at our best under Mike Holmgren, when he got up on teams Q1-2/3, then poured a heavy run assault with Dorsey Levens, Edgar Bennet & William Henderson to close games out.'

So true, but I had to laugh because it reminded me how Holmgren would do that to reign Brett in to keep the game in contol and from throwing any wild picks.

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SicSemperTyrannis's picture

May 30, 2023 at 01:11 am

I thought it looked like improvements were made on stopping the run too. Last year we gave up some chunk plays to runners, fixing that can only help.

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PackEyedOptimist's picture

May 29, 2023 at 05:08 pm

I agree LH; I think that’s one of the reasons LaFleur keeps Barry as DC; that’s his defense (no pun intended).
Everyone wants great pass AND run defense, but by roster alone, it looks like the run defense is mostly the ILBs responsibility, while the line/edges are all about pass rush.

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Leatherhead's picture

May 29, 2023 at 09:19 pm

I think it's actually sneakier than that.

Let's say they run on first down, and we stuff it. Now it's a lot more probable that the next two plays will be passes, and at least one will be completed, probably for 10 yards.

OR, you give up five or six yards on a run, and now it's 2nd and 4 and there's a pretty good chance the next play will be a run. If they make it, or get really close, they'll run again. Maybe they rinse and repeat, but penalties and other things conspire to stop their drives short of the end zone.

I'm reminded of Ali's Rope-A-Dope strategy, because the defense is encouraging the offense to do something that works against them. In this case, , not throwing it to Jefferson, for example. It's sneaky. And I think it's supported by solid percentages that have probably been run on computers more than once.

I also think that when the offense puts enough points on the board to pressure the opposing offense to match, you'll see teams just stop running of their own accord, because they'll decide to challenge the strength of our defense instead, in hopes of a quick catchup through the air.

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