Pack-A-Day Podcast - Episode 1027 - Andy Herman & Ben Fennell Chat Packers' Draft & Aaron Rodgers

On today's show, Andy Herman & Ben Fennell chat about the Aaron Rodgers situation and review the Packers' 2021 NFL Draft. Find out which picks Ben was excited about and which pick was a bit underwhelming.

On today's show, Andy Herman & Ben Fennell chat about the Aaron Rodgers situation and review the Packers' 2021 NFL Draft. Find out which picks Ben was excited about and which pick was a bit underwhelming. Don't miss it!
 

 

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Andy is a graduate of UW-Oshkosh and owns & operates the Pack-A-Day Podcast. Andy has taken multiple courses in NFL scouting and is an Editor for Packer Report. You can find him on WFRV's Green Bay Nation and every Friday on the Friday Film Room on WDUZ . Andy grew up in Green Bay and is a lifelong season ticket holder - follow him on Twitter @AndyHermanNFL!

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3 points

Comments (20)

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TheNumber1PackerFan's picture

May 17, 2021 at 10:07 am

I understand that great QB's have a voice. I get that 12 is not doubt one of the greats. But if your honestly tell me that 12 got upset because GB drafted a under-developed qb who is in no way ready to play, man please! That is complete and total crap. If that is the reason why he got pissed that says tons about his character. He should know that, at 37 yrs old, he is not going to play for a long time. Don't tell me that he has not had weapons, that is also crap! He has went to the NFC Championship game multiple times and only one a Super Bowl one time and it was not because he did not have weapons. It was critical decisions that were made in each game that caused them to fail. In this past game, 12 deciding to throw on 6 downs after receiving the ball back twice due to 2 int's, forcing the ball into Davante Adams instead of running the ball in, did not help us win. The previous season, holding the ball too long, not working the check downs, trying to do old McCarthy stuff instead of sticking to the game plan. HE has done his fair share to loose these games as well. This is not the Brett situation at all. Brett was old and falling off by the time 12 came on. Brett was not in good health and 12 was way more ready to play that Love is at this point. The Packers did not get a ready qb they got a QB who may or may not work out. 12 is full of shit in my opinion. Sorry not sorry.

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Bear's picture

May 17, 2021 at 11:46 am

It’s in his personality to blow things up. He may have slid in the draft because other teams knew of his prickly personality.

Bleacher Report says Aaron no longer has a relationship with his parents, Ed and Darla, or his siblings, including older brother Luke. The report also claims that Aaron's immediate family members don't even have his cell phone number

Citing a source close to Aaron, the report details Aaron's estrangement, which apparently extends to his one-time friends and late grandfather. The source claims Aaron was set to be a groomsman in the wedding of a close friend but texted the day before to say he wasn't attending, and that Aaron wasn't present at his grandfather's funeral, whom he "once called before every game."
"The family was told they were no longer welcome in Green Bay," the report also states. "If Dad wants to attend a game now, he buys tickets on StubHub or goes through another player's family."
The report also says that when Aaron's parents sent Christmas presents to him and his girlfriend, actress Olivia Munn, in 2014, they were sent back

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greeneighteeeeen's picture

May 17, 2021 at 03:35 pm

I can tell ... he's not pissed by the pick.

By not being able to communicate decision making properly, not even to team leaders, you destroy loyalty of your personal bit by bit. Good management wouldnt just demand leader ship.

True, from a pure analytical point of view: players play, coaches coach, etc.
But with people forming a company to aim for one goal: the whole is more than the sum of its parts.

ps: Everyone who parts ways with family members, has his/her own personal reasons for doing so, and all the rights in the world not to share them in public.
Not going to funeral of the only one beloved family member, knowing everyone else of the bunch would be there too, sounds reasonable and decent to me.

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CoachDino's picture

May 17, 2021 at 07:08 pm

You have some good points but any guy who speaks about respect they way he seems to (through others) and doesn't show up for his grandfather's funeral to pay his respects, to show his grandfather that there is nothing that he wouldn't do to be there speaks to lack of character and narcissism. he couldn't on that day put his feelings aside to do the right thing. His feelings, his family issues were more important.

Now, I only know what I see written so there might be more to it. I do know that 99% of us on this post would of been there to pay our respects despite any family issues. In the end a Superstar athlete or not you are judged on your actions as a human being. heck being a superstar and rich he could make it so easy compared to most people in that situation. An agent to take care of everything, just show up.

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leche's picture

May 17, 2021 at 10:55 pm

He's not expecting to play forever, but he's also not expecting to be pushed out before his contract is up (runs through 2023)...

The value in a young QB is how cheap they are and how much more cap you can spend building the rest of the team around them for that small window. Drafting Love in 2020 means that by the end of Rodgers contract, all of Love's cheap value is gone and he sees the writing on the wall that the Packers don't intend on keeping him around for the full length of his contract.

Then there's the consideration of the current state of the team and how close they are to winning. Drafting a project QB with a high value capital in the 1st round is a huge opportunity cost that could have been put to better short term use to win now (and perhaps even this past season).

His position is not unreasonable at all, and quite frankly Gute made an incredibly shitty and stupid decision in 2020 and created all of this mess out of thin air when he had such a clear roadmap for the next few years; spend draft capital on short term effective assets to make the team as good as it can be right now, and then blow it up and rebuild when you're done.

Perhaps there's something to Gute's own ego and arrogance that he'd rather win tomorrow with all of his guys than win now with a team half-built by his predecessor...?

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CoachDino's picture

May 18, 2021 at 05:02 am

1) IMO not fair to judge the pick after AR MVP season but to judge the decision considering his play, age and contract at the time. He wasn't a top 5 or even possibly 10 QB (I would have him top 8 after 2019 season.)

2) Yes, Optimizing a QB rookie contract is a good thing, but letting a late 1st rd (not top 5 or ten) draft pick develop for a few years isn't so bad. Heck look at the next 5 guys taken They wouldn't of had much impact at all. heck maybe next 10 guys w/o finding even a debatable one. QB value vs all other positions isn't even close. If he starts in year 4 and was good it would of been worth it value wise. (check out the picks)

3) Why is it such a positive to start rookie QBs, the difference in cap. Next year the Packers will pick up an additional (2022) 25M and (2023) 35M the year after. So the saving due to the Salary cap of AR will still be very favorable. (AR Cap Hit-dead Cap- love cap hit = Cap
savings)

4) I think we all do hope that Love plays so well that he is in line for a big contract after 5 years of AR. If he just sits all 5 behind AR I bet they could resign him at an affordable price if AR then leaves.

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greengold's picture

May 18, 2021 at 06:52 am

Schooling.

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leche's picture

May 18, 2021 at 01:46 pm

1. Well the decision is all about the expectations you have for Rodgers going forward. If you expect him to fall off a cliff, sure. If you expect him to maintain that high level, it makes no sense.

2. Opportunity cost seems to be missing from your evaluation. Those picks could have made the team better in 2020 (and possibly gotten us to or helped us win a Super Bowl), in 2021 and 2022 that's all value we aren't getting much, if any, out of with the Love pick. 2 picks after us went Patrick Queen who would have filled an immediate need at ILB (a position Gute doesn't seem to value very highly), but he would have made a significant impact for this Packers team. When we traded up having just seen Murray get drafted by the Chargers, I was ecstatic thinking of us drafting him. Tee Higgins went 7 picks after Love and would have been a bonafide #2 receiving option opposite Adams. Both of these guys would have made this team significantly better NOW.

3. We still got nothing out of the value of year 1 of Jordan Love's rookie deal. And if things go well, we won't get anything out of year 2 either. That's a huge opportunity cost to eat just to hope year 4 and 5 are better when those can just as easily be addressed down the road.... Unless you're convinced Jordan Love IS THE GUY and no one coming through in the next few years looks up to scratch (which Joe Burrow was a nothing until his senior year and became a #1 pick, so that theory should be pretty easily dismissed)

4. Rodgers contract was for 4 years, not 5. What that means is: Rodgers plays 3 years and the Packers have to make a decision on Love's 5th year option without ever having seen him play... They can decline and extend, exercise and then extend, move on without getting any value out of him at all, or push Rodgers out early... It appears we're going for Option #4.

I hope Jordan Love works out. I hope he's even better than Rodgers ever was. And I hope that if Love's a bust Gute gets fired and Packer fans learn to stop expecting the most optimistic result. This organization isn't special. We're beating the odds at QBs right now. That's going to end sooner rather than later; it's a statistical inevitability.

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CoachDino's picture

May 19, 2021 at 04:35 pm

My guy, that's the point, the value of a QB is so high it can easily cover the opportunity costs be it 1 year or 4 if he has a good year.

It of course depends on how one calculates value and opportunity cost.

If you look at the example you gave of Queen as the opportunity costs the packers would have lost nothing but actually gained. Queen was the worst ILB in the game and had a negative impact to his team. Combine that with his current value which has drastically dropped. No one is giving up a late 1st rd draft choice for patrick Queen. While Love most certainly still has 1st rd draft value.

Your point, which I appreciate it and in the end may be correct, hinges heavily on how you calculate opportunity costs.

Depending on your business Ive seen it done in different fashions but when incorporated into a financial statement it was often done on a reach goal of % return.

Stock Market, Commodity Index, Consumer/producer index, Industry etc..

The reach Goal simply being the added expectation of return to justify the project/change/decision.

I know, boring. But when calculating draft picks the cost isn't always that high due to the uncertainty due to the history of return. 1/2 these late rd draft picks are busts, the rest are dispersed thru a range of poor to good. A very small % pan out to be elite. Then add to that the years involved before the return on the ones that aren't a bust. Very few, just look at the list behind Love produce much value AT ALL in year 1 and then it increases after that. Even less when applied to return if a GB Packer (Stronger Roster)

The idea that 1st rd draft picks pan out at a high value is a myth. There are plenty of studies out there documented the crap shoot that a draft is. The rule of thumb is if you can obtain 2 starters within their rookie contract it was successful. That's out of 7 or more draft picks. Now of course the odds do decline as the draft position does.

I would say this organization is special as they have made risky moves twice that have paid off immensely. Brett and AR weren't luck, it was calculated risk that paid off. VERY similar with Love as no one believed in it at the time. Now your right that the odds of it being 3 in a row, even if he's just good are slim. just how probabilities work.

So its not that I disagree that as of now there is an issue, where I think we differ in opinion is just on the landscape when the decision was made and how to calculate value and opportunity cost (which is a very important factor that should always be used).

Where we agree, Go Pack Go. I hope AR comes back because if he's the 2020 QB and not the 2017-19 QB he is worth the money and (opportunity cost - loss of players due to his 40M). I'm also hopeful;; JL works out, keep in mind JL plus 35M could be worth more than AR as far as WINNING a SB.

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CoachDino's picture

May 17, 2021 at 03:43 pm

great stuff. loved all the OL details. Flying off the ball, hitting their spot, pros and cons of this trait.

Also loved the reference to what ARod said "having such a great year messed up the plan" . its so true.

As usual analysis seemed to skip past how pre love draft Arod wasn't not trending up, not 100% in on the new scheme and what he needed to do and that his shallow diva personality was coming through more and more (hey, being a great player isn't an excuse for his track record of how he handles himself and relationships.)

So ya I hear the comments of it being a good thing to always be prepared when it comes to the QB then I hear talk the opposite in the same conversation. Yet today Mr Fennel did just come out and say that in the AR case its different. I may not like that but its 100% true. I'm not down on Gute but he may have bet wrong. yet, the other side of this is simply AR is going nowhere unless the Packers ok it, he isn't going to retire (highly unlikely as anything is possible and should be looked at in risk assessment) so they will still be able to either resign him if they choose or just at least get 1 more year out of him and trade him when, Ive been saying this from day 1, MORE teams need QBs and have the cap space and the draft picks have much more value due to the time before they can be used and knowing the value instead of allowing AR to lessen the value through the improvement he brings.

Please stop with the comment on how it will wear on a team. It isn't even something that will be moving the needle after examining it. its a losers mentality (not calling anyone a loser). the press has less and less impact (on fans, little to none on teams) as teams have learned to insulate themselves and fans have very little faith in the media, so in the end its just the media trying to create it but its more like a movie, not real. How has Lebron, Micheal, jerry Jones teams, George steinbrenner's teams, New England, etc etc. They all won despite that years latest controversy, The media will make something up if its not there so teams have all been more and more immune to it.

PLEASE, Arod is not looking out for JL, that is some really crazy, unsubstantiated in anyway, conjecture. When has AR ever, ever, shown himself to think about others like that? Its about his ego, revenge and money. Control!!! Himself.

Back to positives. Mr Fennel really does have some great insights when it comes to evaluation and play breakdown. Thought his draft pick pros cons were interesting, plenty of what we have all heard before plus some more in depth tidbits.

thanks for getting him on your show, great job landing some great guests.

5 points
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TheNumber1PackerFan's picture

May 17, 2021 at 04:21 pm

Agreed this is not about anything else other than his bitchy attitude and his feelings being hurt. Lets not forget that Gute and Russ brought back his favorite running back. Lets not forget that they also brought back his favorite lineman. Lets not forget that, HE HAD WEAPONS THAT GOT HIM TO THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME AGAIN! How many weapons does he need. He wants to have a receiving core like he had back in 2011, well that time has passed. I understand that everyone says GB has to take some blame, and that is true. But again, did they really think Jordan Love was going to be ready to take 12's spot anytime soon. Short answer, NO. They knew that, but apparently 12 took issue. Fine if you want to be notified and have better communication cool, but dude don't be such a dick about it. Man up and have the conversation that need to be had, and PLAY FOOTBALL!

5 points
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greengold's picture

May 17, 2021 at 04:36 pm

I liked it too, Andy & Ben. Great stuff.

The one thing consistently left out of most Aaron Rodgers discussions is "that he does not want to return to the team" - Adam Schefter's original message.

Trey WIngo then added less than an hour after Schefty: "Rodgers told the team.. trade or no trade I'm not coming back."

AR is the kind of guy who is not going to change his mind. Maybe we all would be better served taking these comments at face value, and accepting - without knowing why - that AR just doesn't want to play for us again.

I agree with Dino that there is ZERO chance AR is looking out for Jordan Love's interests in this. It could be as simple as he wishes to no longer play for the Packers. Done. How on earth is the organization not doing right by Jordan Love? That seems more than a bit off base. The Packers knew who they were drafting after having discussions with Jordan Love multiple times in the pre draft process.

No amount of money can make Aaron Rodgers return to Green Bay to play for the Packers. I believe that to be true and I do think that is super sad for Packer fans, myself included, but that is what he wants in his life. For him to leave this out there as long as it has been, two and a half weeks now, I'd imagine he is holding firm to this stance.

Don't you guys think leaving that out of the equation changes some things? "Do not let him go," or "hold on to him like grim death," apparently are not options. If that is indeed the case, isn't all this other stuff meaningless?

The Packers FO has had to say certain things a certain way to navigate these rough seas successfully. Take what they say with a grain of salt, knowing much will be revealed after this is resolved, either by trade or retirement or something else. No one here knows. it isn't comforting, but we must. This could be one of the biggest trades ever in the history of sports. We should give this Packers FO some grace as they work through it.

There is A LOT of SLAMMING this Packers FO, without them being able to respond. Pouring that kind of gas on the fire seems a bit unfair. It is the speculative media circus that will continue spinning around until this is resolved. I found all of the first 1/3 of this podcast painful (just because there is SO MUCH we don't know, nor can the team share)... but, after the AR stuff, it was great.

5 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 17, 2021 at 08:06 pm

Ben Fennell and even Andy Herman (sadly) sound more like player agents and Aaron Rodgers apologists - than objective commentators. Clearly, neither know much, if anything, about running a sophisticated, multi-faceted sports organization. Their solution - just give Rodgers what he wants to make him happy. Highly simplistic.

3 points
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greengold's picture

May 17, 2021 at 08:23 pm

I wasn’t trying to bust their balls about it. I love them both and they are rockstar analysts. There are so many making pretty harsh judgements with little to no real knowledge of the facts.

Two more weeks of batshit crazy stuff being tossed around before a trade can be made official. By then at this rate, the Packers should net somewhere between 11 to 14 R1s PLUS an R3, a premiere player plus a QB.

2 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 17, 2021 at 11:54 pm

Their discourse on Rodgers was in stark contrast to the rest of the podcast. Frankly, I fast-forwarded from the Rodgers love-in - to the remaining podcast - which was very good. However as someone who's been in amateur and professional sports management - their Rodgers take was inane. They should stick to what do they best - otherwise they just become a part of the "batshit crazy stuff" (which is our domain).

Nevertheless I appreciate your attempt at amelioration.

As for the Rodgers trade package - no deal unless a R4 is included.

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greengold's picture

May 17, 2021 at 09:09 pm

R4? I LOVE R4s!!! You should have seen me last year, I wanted that R4 so bad... had a bit of a draft crush on WR Joe Reed and he would have been my pick. No clue how he did for the Chargers.

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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 17, 2021 at 09:11 pm

As we all should:

David Bakhtiari No. 69 – Green Bay Packers 2013 / Round: 4 / Pick: 109

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CoachDino's picture

May 17, 2021 at 08:25 pm

GG, stop it, your starting to make me think maybe he would cost himself 40M plus just to put it to the Packers. The money is huge but the lack of attention he will receive not being in the league will devastate him. Sure he will be in the press every week, just like now, but he won't be on the stage. Dude, taking up t0 20M out of your pocket and returning it, losing the 2021 income, possibly accumulating 100ks of fines that come out of your pocket combined with you overall career numbers taking a hit as to where you're stats would of ranked you. that's all too much IMO for any person and his ego to boot. My guess on his willingness to play hardball, 1 year sabbatical at most.

IMO, if really at an impasse, play for 1 more year with the understanding your agent can begin trade talks after the season. He's still under contract and it would be considered tampering w/o permission)

For frame of reference i made a living negotiating high dollar contracts around the world. Always with a support staff, sometimes as a lead, sometimes as a very small bit player. point is i've seen how it is done at the high (not highest...lol) levels, but certainly at this level of money here. I have been trained, schooled and experienced in the art. The packers have the leverage, doesn't mean they shouldn't try to appease AR within reason, remember it's not just about "winning" the negotiation but negotiating a market win for your team. Getting over on someone in negotiations isn't good for long term results.

AR won't feel the leverage the Packers have until it starts to cost him. I've had to negotiate deals with people I don't care for with results I knew weren't optimum. But in the end it was what was best for those I represented. the key is to keep yourself out of those situations and you can be darn sure if possible i was looking to better my position for the next time, from day 1.

What does it cost the packers in 2021 if they decide that they will let him sit out before trading them? really very little?
Doesn't cost you money, but saves you money, could open up cap space or not, I'm not sure how that works.

The benefit to trading him comes in the form of draft picks, none of which you will be able to use in 2021 anyway.

After this season, you will have more teams in the bidding war (increased demand) actual knowledge of when any 2022 draft picks will be (value assessment) and knowledge of where your football team stands w/o him (position). Then begin the process over again, sure there is a risk he stays retired and you lose out on a possible haul of (3) 1st rd draft picks. It comes down to a couple of things
1) Where you calculate the odds of him never playing again
2) what is the value you lost not trading him

Risk vs Reward.

Maybe the risk of him retiring and getting nothing is calculated as being to high to risk in order to reap the rewards of higher return (which I calculate where other may not see an increased value by waiting)

Also sends a message for future negotiations, which is very important. We won't be bullied with 3 years left on a contract.

personally, I'm pretty confidant whatever happens the Packer negotiators did all their due diligence, calculated all the scenarios, applied the intangibles and with more knowledge and expertise than fans, media and competition to do what was best for the team.

look no further than Wilson and watson. Both will be playing for the team they are contracted to (Watson has other issues).

4 points
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greengold's picture

May 17, 2021 at 08:50 pm

I kid you not buddy! I think this is all about his fiancée hating GB and refusing to live there. Therefore his harsh stance.

It would not shock me in the least if that is what the whole mess is about.

I don’t think for a second he’ll retire. I also don’t think for a second the Packers would make him sit. This is business, and they will sell very, very high.

Funny, but before he met her, it was “whoever it is they are going to have to go through me first.” Then... POOF! “I’m engaged, and I’m out!” Tell me that doesn’t make the most sense out of anything. It totally adds up. I mean, I know the nightlife is tough to beat in Green Bay, and let’s not forget the shopping...!

FFS. Eureka! Jackpot! That’s the answer....

2 points
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Alberta_Packer's picture

May 17, 2021 at 08:57 pm

Could very well be - as valid a reason as there is circulating. Reminds me of the proverb - "Grab man by balls - mind soon to follow."

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