The NFL announced that the salary cap limit for the 2020 season will be $198.2 million, which is less than had been expected.  It constitutes an increase of about $10 million but just a 5.31% increase over the 2019 cap limit.  That is bad news for teams with lower than average cap space like the Packers.

Where does that leave the Packers for free agency?  I ran my own numbers, looked at Sportrac, Overthecap, and Ken Ingalls (those numbers varied from $22.55 million to $22.9 million) and I came up with an average of $22.745 million using the rule of 51.  That includes signing Crosby and releasing Graham, and the increases in the minimum salaries for young players and practice squad players due to the new CBA, but it does not include releasing Lane Taylor or any other player(s).

How much is spendable on free agency?  Let's take a look.

There are things with which one could quibble about listed above.  I note that Ken Ingalls suggests that the PS squad and signing the draft picks will cost $120,000 and $413,000 more than I estimated.  The Packers have to keep some cap space to pay incentives that might be earned, and to have a cushion for Injured Reserve and PUP lists.  Any player that gets hurt who does not have a game active bonus hurts cap space.  It hurts more if the player would not have made the team but was hurt in training camp.  Cap space has come in handy in the past at cut downs when some attractive players get released by other teams. 

I think going into the start of the regular season with $5 million is close to bare bones, but people can disagree.  The Packers can restructure a contract in December if the cap space is too low for them to pay all of their obligations, except for incentives.  If a team does not have enough cap space to pay incentives, the amount by which incentives exceeds available cap space is taken from the 2021 salary cap.

$16.5 million in cap space is not a lot, but it represents the total of the first year cap hits for any free agents, perhaps 50% to 70% of the total AAV involved.  In other words, if the Packers wanted to cram free agents in under the cap by having each player's first year cap hit be just 50% of the player's AAV, they could sign players whose AAV totals about $33 million.  Remember, ZaDarius Smith had an AAV of $16.5 million but his first year cap hit was just $7.2 million, which is about 44%. 

I have railed against that practice in the past, but I am more sanguine about it.  There have been some media reports that the 2021 salary cap is expected to explode, perhaps with an increase of $35 million.  I would not be surprised if the Packers restructured some contracts to free up more cap space.  Davante Adams is one possibility.  ZaDarius Smith has a $9 million roster bonus due on March 21 that could be converted to a signing bonus to free up $6 million. 

BREAKING NEWS:

Per Mike Garafolo, the Packers signed ILB Christian Kirksey to a two year deal worth $16M.  There are no details on the contract structure or the 2020 cap number for Kirksey.  He was a street free agent and will not count against the compensatory pick system.

Today is the deadline for teams to file franchise and transition tags.  Legal tampering also starts this afternoon, though players cannot be signed, but some announcements might be made.